Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[muchogra]

Here's my question to the experts:

Where do you see the world economic and that of Thai is going?

If this is too difficult a question for you, I ask a simpler question:

Do you see anything good in the horizon?....If you do see such, when?

Now, what should you do?

[cloudhopper]

I usually don't speak to experts when I'm not loaded with booze.

[waza]

I usually don't speak to experts when I'm not loaded with booze.

Thats the only way I like to speak to them, ex=has been, spert= drip under presure.

[Naam]

heres your words I think ive put up a fairly good argument of benefits of gold over 30-40 year period you asked for

Would you mind have another go please fritter? Pick a 30 - 40 year period within our lifetimes to illustrate the benefits of why gold is the place to be.

your arguments "benefits of gold" are not fairly good because they don't take into consideration that a number of investors finance their living expenses with income from their investments.

assuming one had a capital of one million dollars in 1981 and invested that amount in gold @ $35/ounce and needs 5% to cover expenses, increased by 3% p.a. to match inflation... here's the beef:

year $/ounce expense sold ounces capital inflation

1981 409 50,000 0 2,445 1,000,000

1982 339 52,500 155 2,290 776,351 3.00%

1983 423 54,075 128 2,162 914,646 3.00%

1984 348 55,697 160 2,002 696,777 3.00%

1985 317 57,368 181 1,821 577,340 3.00%

1986 349 59,089 169 1,652 576,531 3.00%

1987 451 60,862 135 1,517 684,168 3.00%

1988 438 62,688 143 1,374 601,760 3.00%

1989 375 64,568 172 1,202 450,637 3.00%

1990 363 66,505 183 1,018 369,711 3.00%

1991 368 68,501 186 832 306,303 3.00%

1992 353 70,556 200 632 223,262 3.00%

1993 392 72,672 185 447 175,256 3.00%

1994 385 74,852 194 253 97,274 3.00%

1995 386 77,098 200 53 20,429 3.00%

1996 = game over!

now let's start in 1986:

year $/ounc exp sold ounces capital inflation

1986 349 50,000 0 2,865 1,000,000 3.00%

1987 451 51,500 114 2,751 1,240,764 3.00%

1988 438 53,045 121 2,630 1,151,954 3.00%

1989 375 54,636 146 2,484 931,625 3.00%

1990 363 56,275 155 2,329 845,538 3.00%

1991 368 57,964 158 2,172 799,221 3.00%

1992 353 59,703 169 2,003 706,941 3.00%

1993 392 61,494 157 1,846 723,552 3.00%

1994 385 63,339 165 1,681 647,293 3.00%

1995 386 65,239 169 1,512 583,735 3.00%

1996 386 67,196 174 1,338 516,539 3.00%

1997 324 69,212 214 1,125 364,360 3.00%

1998 293 71,288 243 881 258,211 3.00%

1999 256 73,427 287 594 152,177 3.00%

2000 280 75,629 270 324 90,814 3.00%

2001 268 77,898 291 34 9,024 3.00%

2002 318 80,235 252 (219) (69,528) 3.00% game over!

needless to say that the resident and non-resident timing masters bought their gold either in 1971 or in 2000

[Naam]

correction: "and invested that amount in gold @ $35/ounce" the 35 dollar per ounce are of course nonsense. it should read "409 dollars per ounce".

:jap:

[fritter1970]

*** A lesson in investing for the gold bears .... ie. fletchsmile, BEENTHEREDONETHAT ***

Investing goes in cycles.

1966 - 1982 : Commodities Bull Market, Stock Bear Market

1982 - 1998 : Stock Bull Market, Commodities Bear Market

1998 - Present : Commodities Bull Market, Stock Bear Market

In understanding this lesson I hope you wake up to the dumb notion that you just pick either stocks or commodities as a beginning investor and stick with them for the rest of your life. Such a strategy is only followed by the dumb investor.

To fletchsmile, BEENTHEREDONETHAT: Lesson taught. Now pay homage.

[fletchsmile]

*** A lesson in investing for the gold bears .... ie. fletchsmile, BEENTHEREDONETHAT ***

Investing goes in cycles.

1966 - 1982 : Commodities Bull Market, Stock Bear Market

1982 - 1998 : Stock Bull Market, Commodities Bear Market

1998 - Present : Commodities Bull Market, Stock Bear Market

In understanding this lesson I hope you wake up to the dumb notion that you just pick either stocks or commodities as a beginning investor and stick with them for the rest of your life. Such a strategy is only followed by the dumb investor.

To fletchsmile, BEENTHEREDONETHAT: Lesson taught. Now pay homage.

I guess you're still struggling to understand my posts

Edited November 3, 2011 by fletchsmile

[fletchsmile]

I was having such a good day until I read this

I'm depressed that some people were dumb enough to put their money into something like this

Musical chairs always looks easy when it starts....

But most should know how it ends.

GLD & SLV types are removing chairs...In the end some will have no chair.

Never mind ETFs, gold itself is just a game of musical chairs that just happens to have gone on longer than others. At the end of the day it's just a chunk of yellow metal, and not much use for anything. How long before a few influential people decide it looks ugly.

There's 2 stories gold always remind me of: 1) The emperor's new clothes 2) the Blackadder sketch where Baldrick discovers "green"

I don't think there's a trade going that doesn't have a link to musical chairs. The key is to be listening to plenty of music, and be playing several games at the same time

Pretty good week for metals

Friday-Friday

Gold up $101 USD per oz

+ 6.14%

Silver up $3.89 USD per oz

+12.34%

Yes nice. Some exposure to gold seems sensible even if the metal itself isn't really sensible or logical.

BTW I hold LBUL and LSIL which are ETCs paying twice the daily gains losses. Really don't fancy playing margins on them, but would like a little leverage without the hassles of storage and actually holidng the stuff

BTW2 Silver is a different story to gold, as it's actually useful too

BTW3 At the risk of actually being on topic compared to many other posts. FWIW I'm targeting around 1,800 for gold and 37-40 for silver - assuming of course I don't lose my chair.

Today's 1750s look close enough to me to reduce exposure a bit and book a few profits, given all the uncertainties at the moment.

Still targeting 1,800 for gold, but don't want to get too greedy, and happy to take some risk off while the Europeans are playing their own musical chairs. (Or should I say musical Russian Roulette)

No apologies to gold bugs for being a heathen and having used ETFs and leveraged ETCs to play musical chairs. I'm getting a little old to carry gold to the shop and back.

Silver still aiming for 37-40.

[letitbe]

Letibe,

Thanks for adding further clarification. I hear some of your arguments better now - tho' Zimbabwe and Weimar republic detract from your main thrust. Now allow me to throw in a few more stats to the likes of yourself and Fritter.

From 1970 to Dec 2010. Returns ranked (Source Morning Star):

1) UK Equities +12.1%

2) Property - around 10.8% using your numbers of 3k to 200k

3) Gold + 9.4% (can be increased a bit if we cheat and take to current levels, but still under 10%).

4) UK Bonds +9.1%

5) UK Cash +8.1%

Now these don't look too bad for gold. This is unfortunately the sort of analysis people stop at, and is a little 1 dimensional. Some element of risk needs to be taken into account, what happens in the bad times, + portfolio survival rates if you're advising us retirees, we can store it and live off it. So:

A) The worst 5 year period of each of the above during 1970 to Dec 2010:

1) UK Equities -12.6%

2) Property = I don't have

3) UK Bonds -1.3%

4) Cash +3.2%

5) Gold??? I'm not sure eaxctly but the 21Jan80 to 5 years later was a whopping $850 down to $307.25. That's nearly 2 thirds of your money gone -63.8%. Leaving 36.2%

B ) Portfolio survival rates:

Let's make the assumption that someone withdraws 5% per year, so that is there target return rate.

In his worst 5 years the equity guy dips into his capital, as does the bond guy. Dipping into capital of 5 per annum for 5 years has a nasty effect on the recovery rates needed to get back. Depending on timings it's not unreasonable to say they would compound to loses of say a further 25% - 30%. Note 5 per year is taken and not simply 5% of the reduced balance. If I need 5 pounds to live this year, I probably do next year + inflation. {Incidentally why offshore portfolio bonds charge based on initial invested amounts and not variable balances}

This is where the bond holder such as Naam excels over the equity fan such as myself, and where negative returns come into play why cash and bonds are preferred. {remember: lose 5%, to 95% and you need to make back 5.3% to get to a hundred. lose 25% to 75% and you need to make 33% on your 75% to get back to 100}

Remember also the

The equity holder will be looking at losses of approx 40% (-12.6% less 25-30% , after taking out "5" in these years. Needing 40 on his 60 or 66% to get back to 100

The bond holder will be looking at losses of maybe 30% needing 30 on his 70 or 40% ish to get back to his 100

The cash guy. Well he's always had positive returns and maybe dips a little into capital, but not much

Now the poor gold guy who has 36.2% left has drawn 5x5, and is left with around 10% if he's lucky. There's not a cat in hell's chance of that leaving enough to generate returns next year to live on. Capital will last 2 to 3 years

Now you can argue a little on starting points and doing the maths. But bottom line is there's no way you can take 5 a year out of a portfolio that drops two thirds from 100 to 36 in 5 years, and expect to live on it.

BTW If anyone claims they'd "stuck money away" in good years. 9% p.a taking out 5% p.a leaves a balance to not quite meet the annual inflation rate

c) Portfolio survival rate for gold in practice:

It was over 20 years between that gold peak of $850 and even coming back to see that number again. That would be over 20 years of taking out of capital = dead

Sure gold has done well in the last 10 years.

However, I think the above fairly demonstrates that if you were living off your gold portfolio, as many people on here seem to advise, you wouldn't even have got to the last 10 years. You'd be dead. Most of the other asset classes might have a chance of scraping by, reducing expenses, braving it out, and waiting for the good times. In fact the GBP cash fiat guy, probably hasn't done too bad all things considered, and no doubt had less headaches.

Hence my referral to gold as useful for a short term game of musical chairs...

you accused people of cherry picking I just know ive been investing since 1974 almost 100% property until recently and in UK as I said in 1974 a decent house cost around 3000 gbp and it took 400 onz of gold to buy that while this year it costs 200 onzs and we all know what an incredible ride property has had also in 1974 average wage was around 3000-3500 gbp in uk so again at that time you could buy around about 400 onz of gold for 1 years slary now average wage/salary is around 25,000 gbp pa and you can only buy around 25 onz of gold or put another way if youd bought 400 onz of gold in 1974 you would have had 1 years average wage/salary in uk and today youd have 16 years average wage/salary in 1974 its trues stocks in London dropped from 500 to 140 (FTSE index) and today its around 5400 and you cant really compare because so many companies have gone in and left FTSE index and theirs dividends as well. On other hand UK was on a 3 day week IMF had to bail it out and power cuts were normal so in 1974 at its lowest ever point (except crash of 1929 2 onz of gold would buy around 1 point on FTSE index and so 400 onz (amount for a decent house or average wage/salary in Uk) would buy around 200 points in FTSE index today 400 onzes will buy only 80 points so if you measure from lowest point of FTSE to now sure shares have been better but if you take a few months later when index had recovered to 500+ again then 400 onz of gold would have bought you only around 60 units in index instead of 80 today. You accused others of cherry picking and use a base of 1980 which was height of a gold bubble I have already stated if you bought gold in 1980 and sold in 2000 you would have lost over 60% of your wealth in real terms but I think both property and shares are at their height and this gold bubble has a long way to run. The only real important thing is not to keep your money in cash IMO. Shares and property are good for 15-20+ year timescale but suffer very badly sometimes for periods up to 15 years and shares have been generally a terrible investment since 2000. Thats why im putting only 20% in shares at money 50% in property (or rather keeping it in property weve owned for 15-30+ years) and only recently 30% into gold/silver starting when gold was 800$ and silver around 17$

[fritter1970]

fletchsmile, you say the following:

From 1970 to Dec 2010. Returns ranked (Source Morning Star):<br style="color: rgb(28, 40, 55); line-height: 19px; background-color: rgb(243, 249, 246); "><br style="color: rgb(28, 40, 55); line-height: 19px; background-color: rgb(243, 249, 246); ">1) UK Equities +12.1%<br style="color: rgb(28, 40, 55); line-height: 19px; background-color: rgb(243, 249, 246); ">2) Property - around 10.8% using your numbers of 3k to 200k<br style="color: rgb(28, 40, 55); line-height: 19px; background-color: rgb(243, 249, 246); ">3) Gold + 9.4% (can be increased a bit if we cheat and take to current levels, but still under 10%). <br style="color: rgb(28, 40, 55); line-height: 19px; background-color: rgb(243, 249, 246); ">4) UK Bonds +9.1%<br style="color: rgb(28, 40, 55); line-height: 19px; background-color: rgb(243, 249, 246); ">5) UK Cash +8.1%

*** Ho Hum, let me repeat my lesson for you as you evidently didn't learn it the first time around ***<br style="color: rgb(28, 40, 55); font-size: 13px; line-height: 19px; background-color: rgb(250, 251, 252); "><br style="color: rgb(28, 40, 55); font-size: 13px; line-height: 19px; background-color: rgb(250, 251, 252); "><br style="color: rgb(28, 40, 55); font-size: 13px; line-height: 19px; background-color: rgb(250, 251, 252); ">Investing goes in cycles.<br style="color: rgb(28, 40, 55); font-size: 13px; line-height: 19px; background-color: rgb(250, 251, 252); "><br style="color: rgb(28, 40, 55); font-size: 13px; line-height: 19px; background-color: rgb(250, 251, 252); ">1966 - 1982 : Commodities Bull Market, Stock Bear Market<br style="color: rgb(28, 40, 55); font-size: 13px; line-height: 19px; background-color: rgb(250, 251, 252); "><br style="color: rgb(28, 40, 55); font-size: 13px; line-height: 19px; background-color: rgb(250, 251, 252); ">1982 - 1998 : Stock Bull Market, Commodities Bear Market<br style="color: rgb(28, 40, 55); font-size: 13px; line-height: 19px; background-color: rgb(250, 251, 252); "><br style="color: rgb(28, 40, 55); font-size: 13px; line-height: 19px; background-color: rgb(250, 251, 252); ">1998 - Present : Commodities Bull Market, Stock Bear Market<br style="color: rgb(28, 40, 55); font-size: 13px; line-height: 19px; background-color: rgb(250, 251, 252); "><br style="color: rgb(28, 40, 55); font-size: 13px; line-height: 19px; background-color: rgb(250, 251, 252); ">In understanding this lesson I hope you wake up to the dumb notion that you just pick either stocks or commodities as a beginning investor and stick with them for the rest of your life. Such a strategy is only followed by the dumb investor.<br style="color: rgb(28, 40, 55); font-size: 13px; line-height: 19px; background-color: rgb(250, 251, 252); ">

Lesson taught..... again

[letitbe]

It was over 20 years between that gold peak of $850 and even coming back to see that number again. That would be over 20 years of taking out of capital = dead

Sure gold has done well in the last 10 years.

However, I think the above fairly demonstrates that if you were living off your gold portfolio, as many people on here seem to advise, you wouldn't even have got to the last 10 years. You'd be dead. Most of the other asset classes might have a chance of scraping by, reducing expenses, braving it out, and waiting for the good times. In fact the GBP cash fiat guy, probably hasn't done too bad all things considered, and no doubt had less headaches.

Hence my referral to gold as useful for a short term game of musical chairs...

sorry guilty like you of not reading whole post I agree 100% anyone trying to use gold/silver on a draw down basis for income is crazy I would never put money I needed income from in either thats what property rents are for and weve averaged not 5% but nearer 15% yield over last 40 years in property if you took capital appreciation into account. We have property we bought in UK and USA back in late 70's which now bring in yearly what places cost then and even our more recent stuff without any capital appreciation is yielding well over 12-15% of its original purchase price and 4-5% on its depressed value today. The only time I tried to rely on stocks for income draw down it was a total disaster so we dont even draw down on our stocks ever these days but they are there as a very liquid asset for emergencies or if we deicide to invest in something else or for any very large purchase such as another home or a new car. Apart from that we always reinvest any dividends and simply live within means our rents now give us. IT does get much more difficult than in days when we both had salaries as well as property income but most people start finding it a bit harder when they retire. Those on pensions unless they are index linked golden ones or their one of super rich bankers have had it I reckon and anyone relying on bonds or any other form of fixed income are toast as they say. Property whatever happens to value tends to give same rents at least in Uk and to a lesser extent USA and rents do keep up with inflation even if its in fits and starts. I think were probably in total agreement apart rom probably your a more clever stock investor than me and im probably a better property investor. Both over long 20+ year term win out those in cash or bonds get slaughtered eventually

[fritter1970]

“There is no euphoria in the gold market at the moment. It’s not an over-owned trade. There are still a few gold bugs and prudent people who are using gold as a hedge against paper money being overprinted, but we are nowhere near the exponential, runaway move yet.

If gold were to fall back again, I would be willing to buy more and I do think that in the early part of next year we will be above $2,000. As you know, over time I have gold going hundreds of percent higher from here."

- Robin Griffiths, Cazenove Capital (the appointed stockbroker to Her Majesty The Queen)

[midas]

Musical chairs always looks easy when it starts....

But most should know how it ends.

GLD & SLV types are removing chairs...In the end some will have no chair.

Never mind ETFs, gold itself is just a game of musical chairs that just happens to have gone on longer than others. At the end of the day it's just a chunk of yellow metal, and not much use for anything. How long before a few influential people decide it looks ugly.

There's 2 stories gold always remind me of: 1) The emperor's new clothes 2) the Blackadder sketch where Baldrick discovers "green"

I don't think there's a trade going that doesn't have a link to musical chairs. The key is to be listening to plenty of music, and be playing several games at the same time

Pretty good week for metals

Friday-Friday

Gold up $101 USD per oz

+ 6.14%

Silver up $3.89 USD per oz

+12.34%

Yes nice. Some exposure to gold seems sensible even if the metal itself isn't really sensible or logical.

BTW I hold LBUL and LSIL which are ETCs paying twice the daily gains losses. Really don't fancy playing margins on them, but would like a little leverage without the hassles of storage and actually holidng the stuff

BTW2 Silver is a different story to gold, as it's actually useful too

BTW3 At the risk of actually being on topic compared to many other posts. FWIW I'm targeting around 1,800 for gold and 37-40 for silver - assuming of course I don't lose my chair.

Today's 1750s look close enough to me to reduce exposure a bit and book a few profits, given all the uncertainties at the moment.

Still targeting 1,800 for gold, but don't want to get too greedy, and happy to take some risk off while the Europeans are playing their own musical chairs. (Or should I say musical Russian Roulette)

No apologies to gold bugs for being a heathen and having used ETFs and leveraged ETCs to play musical chairs. I'm getting a little old to carry gold to the shop and back.

Silver still aiming for 37-40.

so after you " book a few profits " , what do you do then? where do you put your gains ?

In even more paper or digitised numbers?

Edited November 4, 2011 by midas

[Naam]

so after you " book a few profits " , what do you do then? where do you put your gains ?

In even more paper or digitised numbers?

Fletch's is using his profits wisely:

[flying]

Fletch's is using his profits wisely:

Actually that one would be a good investment

[midas]

so after you " book a few profits " , what do you do then? where do you put your gains ?

In even more paper or digitised numbers?

Fletch's is using his profits wisely:

you would hardly be able to liquidate those in a hurry unless it was at a bargain knockdown price

[Naam]

so after you " book a few profits " , what do you do then? where do you put your gains ?

In even more paper or digitised numbers?

Fletch's is using his profits wisely:

you would hardly be able to liquidate those in a hurry unless it was at a bargain knockdown price

only poor people would want to liquidate anything they own. but that's just whishful thinking because they don't own anything.

[Naam]

rather hard to liquidate this ricefield with all its "liquidity"

[fletchsmile]

so after you " book a few profits " , what do you do then? where do you put your gains ?

In even more paper or digitised numbers?

Fletch's is using his profits wisely:

The boat belongs to the neighbours. Hopefully they'll let us take it to Tesco's when the floods hit us

[fletchsmile]

Today's 1750s look close enough to me to reduce exposure a bit and book a few profits, given all the uncertainties at the moment.

Still targeting 1,800 for gold, but don't want to get too greedy, and happy to take some risk off while the Europeans are playing their own musical chairs. (Or should I say musical Russian Roulette)

No apologies to gold bugs for being a heathen and having used ETFs and leveraged ETCs to play musical chairs. I'm getting a little old to carry gold to the shop and back.

Silver still aiming for 37-40.

so after you " book a few profits " , what do you do then? where do you put your gains ?

In even more paper or digitised numbers?

Seeing as these particular holdings were for short term trading, yes pretty much so. I bought WBC:AU and and added to RIO:AU holdings yesterday so had reduced cash in my trading portfolios, and wanted to have generally a bit more cash for opportunities to come. {To save you checking: WBC added over 2% today and RIO over 5%} When all this economic fiasco is over, I'd expect RIO to be 100 or so, but there should be plenty of short term ups and downs. For opportunities:

eg bought CAZA:LN 2 weeks ago as a longer term investment @8.75, but given recent movements, it's something I might look at for a short term trading position as well, in addition to the long term hold. Today transferred a little to an investment portfolio to buy MSYS:LN - that one is defnitely long term/ investment tho and not a trading position. Longer term hold that will either fail or make it big. Interesting little company involved in mass spectrometry that would help check and analyse the quality of Herr Naam and Flying's wine cellars

Also was thinking to buy some more AAL:LN, but the price had already shifted upwards and I missed my entry point - no doubt on the acquisition news.

So yes. Mainly digits and paper on this occasion.

Edited November 4, 2011 by fletchsmile

[farang000999]

As for a country that wants to finance exploration to find more of what they back/peg their currency to ( that which is held in their reserves ) Well they would need to save their revenues till they can afford it.

i need all my mental strength to be lenient with you Flying if your suggestion was followed most countries would be still decades backwards, emerging countries still submerged, pauverty and hunger much more rampant than today.

having said so, i'd like to point out that i don't condone the quasi unlimited credit expansion / debt accumulation we have seen in the last 50 years in developed as well as in emerging countries.

there was still debt, lending and borrowing under a gold standard. i am not sure what the debate is now. you have pieces of paper that can be traded in for gold at a fixed rate. those pieces of paper can be lent out so countries and businesses can spend money today that they do not have.

[fritter1970]

Today's 1750s look close enough to me to reduce exposure a bit and book a few profits, given all the uncertainties at the moment.

Still targeting 1,800 for gold, but don't want to get too greedy, and happy to take some risk off while the Europeans are playing their own musical chairs. (Or should I say musical Russian Roulette)

No apologies to gold bugs for being a heathen and having used ETFs and leveraged ETCs to play musical chairs. I'm getting a little old to carry gold to the shop and back.

Silver still aiming for 37-40.

so after you " book a few profits " , what do you do then? where do you put your gains ?

In even more paper or digitised numbers?

Seeing as these particular holdings were for short term trading, yes pretty much so. I bought WBC:AU and and added to RIO:AU holdings yesterday so had reduced cash in my trading portfolios, and wanted to have generally a bit more cash for opportunities to come. {To save you checking: WBC added over 2% today and RIO over 5%} When all this economic fiasco is over, I'd expect RIO to be 100 or so, but there should be plenty of short term ups and downs. For opportunities:

eg bought CAZA:LN 2 weeks ago as a longer term investment @8.75, but given recent movements, it's something I might look at for a short term trading position as well, in addition to the long term hold. Today transferred a little to an investment portfolio to buy MSYS:LN - that one is defnitely long term/ investment tho and not a trading position. Longer term hold that will either fail or make it big. Interesting little company involved in mass spectrometry that would help check and analyse the quality of Herr Naam and Flying's wine cellars

Also was thinking to buy some more AAL:LN, but the price had already shifted upwards and I missed my entry point - no doubt on the acquisition news.

So yes. Mainly digits and paper on this occasion.

"When all this economic fiasco is over, I'd expect RIO to be 100 or so"

What a joke. The "fiasco" is going to last for years. Europe first. Japan second. USA last. So you are saying that during that time period you are going to bank a 40 per cent profit on Rio Tinto when gold is predicted to go up many hundreds of per cent and silver is projected to go up at least 1000 per cent. They should have a picture of you in the dictionary under the term "opportunity cost".

As for Westpac. You are going to get even less of a return than Rio Tinto. So won't even bother discussing that one.

As you do not know what you are doing please feel free to ask for advice on how to go long on precious metals if you are awoken by a dose of common sense.

[midas]

so after you " book a few profits " , what do you do then? where do you put your gains ?

In even more paper or digitised numbers?

Fletch's is using his profits wisely:

you would hardly be able to liquidate those in a hurry unless it was at a bargain knockdown price

only poor people would want to liquidate anything they own. but that's just whishful thinking because they don't own anything.

no no I'm talking about if suddenly a group wearing balaclavas appeared at your chateaux and want to " occupy " it

Edited November 4, 2011 by midas

[midas]

rather hard to liquidate this ricefield with all its "liquidity"

but crocodile meat is very delicious

[Naam]

The boat belongs to the neighbours. Hopefully they'll let us take it to Tesco's when the floods hit us

Fletch, you and your family were on my mind some days ago. i hope you stay dry!

[Naam]

rather hard to liquidate this ricefield with all its "liquidity"

but crocodile meat is very delicious

compared to delicious Florida gator Thai croc tastes awful, whereas Aussie croc (available deep frozen in Foodland) tastes very good.

[fletchsmile]

Today's 1750s look close enough to me to reduce exposure a bit and book a few profits, given all the uncertainties at the moment.

Still targeting 1,800 for gold, but don't want to get too greedy, and happy to take some risk off while the Europeans are playing their own musical chairs. (Or should I say musical Russian Roulette)

No apologies to gold bugs for being a heathen and having used ETFs and leveraged ETCs to play musical chairs. I'm getting a little old to carry gold to the shop and back.

Silver still aiming for 37-40.

so after you " book a few profits " , what do you do then? where do you put your gains ?

In even more paper or digitised numbers?

Seeing as these particular holdings were for short term trading, yes pretty much so. I bought WBC:AU and and added to RIO:AU holdings yesterday so had reduced cash in my trading portfolios, and wanted to have generally a bit more cash for opportunities to come. {To save you checking: WBC added over 2% today and RIO over 5%} When all this economic fiasco is over, I'd expect RIO to be 100 or so, but there should be plenty of short term ups and downs. For opportunities:

eg bought CAZA:LN 2 weeks ago as a longer term investment @8.75, but given recent movements, it's something I might look at for a short term trading position as well, in addition to the long term hold. Today transferred a little to an investment portfolio to buy MSYS:LN - that one is defnitely long term/ investment tho and not a trading position. Longer term hold that will either fail or make it big. Interesting little company involved in mass spectrometry that would help check and analyse the quality of Herr Naam and Flying's wine cellars

Also was thinking to buy some more AAL:LN, but the price had already shifted upwards and I missed my entry point - no doubt on the acquisition news.

So yes. Mainly digits and paper on this occasion.

"When all this economic fiasco is over, I'd expect RIO to be 100 or so"

What a joke. The "fiasco" is going to last for years. Europe first. Japan second. USA last. So you are saying that during that time period you are going to bank a 40 per cent profit on Rio Tinto when gold is predicted to go up many hundreds of per cent and silver is projected to go up at least 1000 per cent. They should have a picture of you in the dictionary under the term "opportunity cost".

As for Westpac. You are going to get even less of a return than Rio Tinto. So won't even bother discussing that one.

As you do not know what you are doing please feel free to ask for advice on how to go long on precious metals if you are awoken by a dose of common sense.

You're mixing up "trading" and "investing". I've already said this is a short term position, and am expecting plenty of ups and downs. Same way as the gold positions mentioned were short term trading. For the last few weeks I've been buying RIO:AU 50's/60's and selling 60's/70's, which is why I said "add" to the position

No-one is suggesting the fiasco is going away soon. I simply said when it does, I expect RIO around 100.

Why is this important? I'm happy continuing to trade RIO (and BHP for the matter) in these ranges. Take small % profits several times during the ups and downs. The safety net, is that once this blows over it should be around 100. Scenario-wise:

1) Worst case scenario, if it drops and we hit a bear market, I'll park it in the investment portfolio and trade something else, as there's a long term story there.

2) Best case scenario, I make several trades of 5-10% profits in a range that gradually increases and eventually gives a 40% gain on top above as well = 40% + several range trades. Or,

3) if we move into a bull run, I won't make the range trades and just take the ride up for 40%.

Edited November 4, 2011 by fletchsmile

[fletchsmile]

The boat belongs to the neighbours. Hopefully they'll let us take it to Tesco's when the floods hit us

Fletch, you and your family were on my mind some days ago. i hope you stay dry!

Thanks Naam. All fine this end. Mrs Smile and the kids went away during the 5 days national holiday declared. Then came back after nothing happened. Now the kids are on 2 weeks holiday again, as MoEd decided to close all BKK schools. TBH I'd more confidence in the school being on tope of things.

I trust everything's OK in Naam Mansion?

Edited November 4, 2011 by fletchsmile

[Naam]

The boat belongs to the neighbours. Hopefully they'll let us take it to Tesco's when the floods hit us

Fletch, you and your family were on my mind some days ago. i hope you stay dry!

Thanks Naam. All fine this end. Mrs Smile and the kids went away during the 5 days national holiday declared. Then came back after nothing happened. Now the kids are on 2 weeks holiday again, as MoEd decided to close all BKK schools. TBH I'd more confidence in the school being on tope of things.

I trust everything's OK in Naam Mansion?

didn't receive negative news. we are abroad returning on sunday.

[flying]

Three + years later & here is their statement??

http://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/silvermarketstatement

November 4, 2011

CFTC Statement Regarding Enforcement Investigation of the Silver Markets

Washington, DC, November 4, 2011 – The Commodity Futures Trading Commission today issued the following statement:

“In September of 2008, the Commission announced the existence of an enforcement investigation into the possibility of unlawful acts in silver markets. Since that time, the staff has analyzed over 100,000 documents and interviewed dozens of witnesses and obtained expert advice. It has been a long, detailed, and thorough investigation, and it continues in an appropriate and considered manner.”