Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[fletchsmile]

Today's 1750s look close enough to me to reduce exposure a bit and book a few profits, given all the uncertainties at the moment.

Still targeting 1,800 for gold, but don't want to get too greedy, and happy to take some risk off while the Europeans are playing their own musical chairs. (Or should I say musical Russian Roulette)

No apologies to gold bugs for being a heathen and having used ETFs and leveraged ETCs to play musical chairs. I'm getting a little old to carry gold to the shop and back.

...

so after you " book a few profits " , what do you do then? where do you put your gains ?

In even more paper or digitised numbers?

Reading post #5962 above, does your smiley and smiley feel a little less confused and concerned now Midas? = took the profits, waited and now putting some of them back in again, having meanwhile also been playing elsewhere while the gold musical chairs wasn't of interest for a while

Yes it's all paper, but I'm happy I haven't been walking back and forth to the shop each day with physical gold.

Edited December 12, 2011 by fletchsmile

[mccw]

I just saw Tom mcMullen on bloomberg talking about how hewas bearish on gold because their lease rates were at historically all time highs. He's saying thishas kept gold "atificaly high" due to a lack of short selling due to these high lease rates and he exepects the gold price to drop along with the lease price what reason he didn't really explain- only that that is what has happened in the past. Maybe because new players step in to under cut, attracted by the higher rates?

What do u lot make of this?

To me the fact that people aren't so keen to lend their gold anymore indicates they are expecting they can make more by holding it- ie strong support for a bull Market. The graph he showed only proved his point over a short window of a month before continued rises also. So if he's right I'm looking to buy a bit of gold in maybe Jan or feb. Then as this economic mess unravells further across the summer and resession starts to bite, by end of the year prices will be up to new highs of 2500-3000$ an oz. If the shit really hits the fan and surplus nations switch from currency to metal reserves 10,000+ isn't out of this world.

Edited December 12, 2011 by mccw

[mccw]

With the changing reserves senario I expect silver - gold ratio to narrow ie silver catching up to gold ; so much bigger gains to be made. I hold much more silver for this reason and then even if I'm completely wrong and gold falls back the other way then I can swap to gold at a nice ratio and then play the ratios with physical in to the future.

(the exploding price senario would be at the same time as failing institutions all over the place dont be expecting to get any profits out of your ETF or trading accounts)- sure it's been said many times already in this thread- just thought I'd lend another voice to the warning.

[Naam]

Despite ALL this waffle, twaddle, claptrap and <deleted>.....

With the recent slight drop in price, ARE WE BUYING OR SELLING?

Regards!

ef

yes we are.

regards!

wf

A - DESPITE....

B - OR....

NAAM - MUPPET

edgar = friendly

[Naam]

an unwarranted assumption Midas. i abhor the bàstàrds as much as you do but at the same time i claim that among the rotten crowd you still find honest people possessing integrity.

Naam I have borrowed this paragraph from an article I just posted from Reuters over in the other " Fred " but I think it's so

good and epitomises so exactly why I have such little faith in the integrity of the cartel in power

" If anyone thought that you couldn't have your cake and eat it too in the world of finance, MF Global shows how you can have your cake, eat it, eat someone else's cake and then let your clients pick up the bill. Hard cheese for many as their dough goes missing. "

Midas, i repeat and insist that if the MF Global story did happen as described by certain sources then there will be consequences.

Finally a good use to put America's water boarding skills to.

reports about re-hypothecation of clients assets via financial subsidiaries in London to circumvent U.S. laws and regulations have given me a lot of food for thoughts.

result: it looks as if Midas was correct when mentioning "having the cake and eat it" is indeed possible

[Naam]

If the 200 day MA holds will add more...

Fletch,

even if backtracking would show 99% chance of success i wouldn't rely on TA when making any buy or sell decision.

[fletchsmile]

If the 200 day MA holds will add more...

Fletch,

even if backtracking would show 99% chance of success i wouldn't rely on TA when making any buy or sell decision.

Yes, I'm not a big fan of technical analysis either. The problem is a lot of people are and a lot of people run computerised trading and models based on it. I strongly believe a lot of TA becomes self-fulfilling regardless of whether it makes sense or not. In my view its not unlike millions of people believing the Earth is flat - they might be wrong, but because there are so many you might need to adjust your reactions to life even if not your fundamental beliefs. So for me, it's more an additional consideration than a key driver

Hence if it goes below MA200 then many people will sell like lemmings, so there will be a better buying opportunity to add more. If not then I'll add more around these levels and a bit higher....

[Naam]

I strongly believe a lot of TA becomes self-fulfilling regardless of whether it makes sense or not.

a logical conclusion and applicable if... "all things being equal" prevails. but in the present ambient global financial climate we don't know in the morning whether "things will be still equal" in the afternoon.

[fletchsmile]

Happened to be watching Gartman on Bloomberg today when he was discussing his view on Gold. Below is a BBG news excerpt, where he sees the "Death of the Bull Market"

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-13/death-of-gold-bull-market-seen-by-gartman.html

On the other hand not longer after, I'd switched to CNBC and they had a guy talking of inflation adjusted gold would be at $3,400 and he sees it not unreasonable to go $5,000

Quite happy with my call to buy some at 1,650/60's and see what happens next, as it feels like a buying opportunity to me, but no harm seeing it as a pivot... Wouldn't like to put all my eggs in one basket either way, and prefer to weight it accordingly. Feel there's upside, but not confident to go for a full level exposure yet. Yes heretic I know to you gold bugs out there leaving some money in fiat, and waiting in case better trades

The other worrying factor for me is the increasing number of people saying buy gold, buy gold. Looking thru various other threads on here, you have a lot of people gunning for it, who are obviously not regular investors or traders in it, together with their spouses, relatives, dogs, cats and other newly found experts. Worrying sign that it's getting so popular among retail investors who aren't sure what they're doing - not to mentioned central banks who are notorious for their poor timing

Naam, let us know when your dog gives you the crystal ball back and asks for a gold one. Or asks for a gold dog collar for Xmas - so many others clammering to get in, it can't be long now...

Edited December 13, 2011 by fletchsmile

[Naam]

gold below $ 1,650/ounce... i am tempted to buy... will now sit quietly in a corner and wait till (hopefully) the attack subsides

[churchill]

gold below $ 1,650/ounce... i am tempted to buy... will now sit quietly in a corner and wait till (hopefully) the attack subsides

Fartman selling . normally a good sign ..

The gold bugs are throwing in the towel

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-gold-bugs-are-throwing-in-the-towel-2011-12-14?siteid=nbch

[lannarebirth]

I like this guy. I wish he had a newsletter or something.

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/mark-dow-another-crappy-2012-even-commodities-124819564.html

[cloudhopper]

I like this guy. I wish he had a newsletter or something.

http://finance.yahoo...-124819564.html

Well he got this right - "Most people still misunderstand the impact of the Fed's "money-printing."

[Naam]

Well he got this right - "Most people still misunderstand the impact of the Fed's "money-printing."

let's face it. "most people" don't have an opinion of their own, rely on other opinions and pick the one which suits them, seems most logical or is presented in a way they can easily understand. in this quagmire of times it's also a difficult task to form your own opinion.

[flying]

gold below $ 1,650/ounce... i am tempted to buy... will now sit quietly in a corner and wait till (hopefully) the attack subsides

Well as a side note the cyclist I like to read states gold could hit 1500 USD/oz 1st-2nd week of January

[cloudhopper]

I share this view on gold - http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/12/dear-nouriel-roubini-fundamental-case.html

[flying]

I share this view on gold - http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/12/dear-nouriel-roubini-fundamental-case.html

Thanks CH that was quite good.

[Naam]

gold below $ 1,650/ounce... i am tempted to buy... will now sit quietly in a corner and wait till (hopefully) the attack subsides

Well as a side note the cyclist I like to read states gold could hit 1500 USD/oz 1st-2nd week of January

for somebody who's reference currencies or who's expenses are in currencies which have weakened or might weaken even more vs. USD that's not a reason to wait till gold is cheaper in dollar terms.

[Naam]

and should i decide to add the freaking question "physical or paper?" comes up

comments not invited as already discussed ad nauseam. both ways, the wheelbarrow and the mouse-click, have advantages and disadvantages.

[flying]

for somebody who's reference currencies or who's expenses are in currencies which have weakened or might weaken even more vs. USD that's not a reason to wait till gold is cheaper in dollar terms.

Very True

[churchill]

Negative Gold Lease Rates ... mean as I understand that banks need to raise cash so lease their gold which can lead to depressed prices ..

'One of the things we failed to notice prior to the unexpected beatdown in gold in September was that lease rates had moved significantly into negative territory '

from http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/3103/no-rest-turd

Probably exactly the opposite will happen this time - as the gold price is a game of poker ..

A long read but gives some clues to what is going on ...

Charlatan Exposed: Negative Gold Lease Rates

http://www.metalaugmentor.com/analysis/charlatan-exposed-negative-gold-lease-rates.html#comments

....' Meanwhile we suspect that liquidity needs at commercial banks could continue to result in an uptick in gold leasing activity that is short term bearish, but once reversed should become bullish for gold. A few tens of tonnes (perhaps several hundred tonnes at most although the new Central Bank Gold Agreement effective for 2009-2014 contains no limitations on derivatives activities) of leased gold will need to be repurchased in the spot market during the next few months ' ...

[lannarebirth]

Negative Gold Lease Rates ... mean as I understand that banks need to raise cash so lease their gold which can lead to depressed prices ..

'One of the things we failed to notice prior to the unexpected beatdown in gold in September was that lease rates had moved significantly into negative territory '

from http://www.tfmetalsr...03/no-rest-turd

Probably exactly the opposite will happen this time - as the gold price is a game of poker ..

A long read but gives some clues to what is going on ...

Charlatan Exposed: Negative Gold Lease Rates

http://www.metalaugm...s.html#comments

....' Meanwhile we suspect that liquidity needs at commercial banks could continue to result in an uptick in gold leasing activity that is short term bearish, but once reversed should become bullish for gold. A few tens of tonnes (perhaps several hundred tonnes at most although the new Central Bank Gold Agreement effective for 2009-2014 contains no limitations on derivatives activities) of leased gold will need to be repurchased in the spot market during the next few months ' ...

If Gold was Real Money, none of that would be important would it?

[khaan]

Negative Gold Lease Rates ... mean as I understand that banks need to raise cash so lease their gold which can lead to depressed prices ..

'One of the things we failed to notice prior to the unexpected beatdown in gold in September was that lease rates had moved significantly into negative territory '

from http://www.tfmetalsr...03/no-rest-turd

Probably exactly the opposite will happen this time - as the gold price is a game of poker ..

A long read but gives some clues to what is going on ...

Charlatan Exposed: Negative Gold Lease Rates

http://www.metalaugm...s.html#comments

....' Meanwhile we suspect that liquidity needs at commercial banks could continue to result in an uptick in gold leasing activity that is short term bearish, but once reversed should become bullish for gold. A few tens of tonnes (perhaps several hundred tonnes at most although the new Central Bank Gold Agreement effective for 2009-2014 contains no limitations on derivatives activities) of leased gold will need to be repurchased in the spot market during the next few months ' ...

If Gold was Real Money, none of that would be important would it?

so what is " Real Money " by your definition ....and i hope you dont say fiat !

[Naam]

so what is " Real Money " by your definition ....and i hope you dont say fiat !

please be kind enough and tell us what kind of money you spend recently in a restaurant, supermarket, buying an airticket or a beer.

[khaan]

so what is " Real Money " by your definition ....and i hope you dont say fiat !

please be kind enough and tell us what kind of money you spend recently in a restaurant, supermarket, buying an airticket or a beer.

maybe today and tommorow i will use paper but that means nothing...

When the collapse occurs who knows then.....?

here in Thailand... Buddhism teaches all about impermenance

[lannarebirth]

so what is " Real Money " by your definition ....and i hope you dont say fiat !

please be kind enough and tell us what kind of money you spend recently in a restaurant, supermarket, buying an airticket or a beer.

maybe today and tommorow i will use paper but that means nothing...

When the collapse occurs who knows then.....?

here in Thailand... Buddhism teaches all about impermenance

At which time you'll be glad you've got your land. Unless of course one of those impermanent political bodies changes the rules of what "ownership" means. Luckily. life is fleeting.

[janverbeem]

Can someone please explain why gold jumps 10% up and down during the complete trading session,something I never noticed in the past.,

[Naam]

so what is " Real Money " by your definition ....and i hope you dont say fiat !

please be kind enough and tell us what kind of money you spend recently in a restaurant, supermarket, buying an airticket or a beer.

maybe today and tommorow i will use paper but that means nothing...

When the collapse occurs who knows then.....?

here in Thailand... Buddhism teaches all about impermenance

tell the cashier "it means nothing" when you check out of a supermarket "day after tomorrow" without paying using "fiat paper" and then wait for those nice men dressed in white who will present you with a nice and tight fitting jacket similar to this one

Edited December 15, 2011 by Naam

[Naam]

i wonder how many smart and savvy investors who bought Gold in september wish they had kept their "fiat paper" instead of losing nearly 20% within three months.

[khaan]

i wonder how many smart and savvy investors who bought Gold in september wish they had kept their "fiat paper" instead of losing nearly 20% within three months.

and I wonder how many smart and savvy investors who will be left holding their "fiat paper" when the collapse occurs ( not " if " ) wish they had bought something more substantial with it now instead of being left with a pile of toilet paper ?

Edited December 16, 2011 by khaan