Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[flying]

sometimes I wish I could go away and not look for 6 months - but it verges on the obsessive this PM malarkey

Your starting to sound like a conflicted day trader.

If day trading is what your after? you will need better nerves.

If not then the "PM Malarkey" should not affect you

Edited February 13, 2012 by flying

[udonguy]

sometimes I wish I could go away and not look for 6 months - but it verges on the obsessive this PM malarkey

Your starting to sound like a conflicted day trader.

If day trading is what your after? you will need better nerves.

If not then the "PM Malarkey" should not affect you

you're right.... where's the pills?

[flying]

First 5 minutes or so is funny.......Not saying it could or couldn't happen

But does give one something to think about when buying/storing physical in the USA

[12DrinkMore]

ask this lot and you may get the right answer !!

http://www.dailymail...h-highways.html

you think i'd waste even one second of my time reading any rubbish the "daily mail" prints?

I read about this last year sometime.

I found it quite interesting and it has nothing to do with humans, economics, banking, Greece and all that human created bullshit.

[Naam]

Standard Bank

Precious metals

After enjoying some upside in the early morning, precious metals (along with most other markets) came under selling pressure as fears of a possible Greek default and/or exit from the European Monetary Union were reinforced by the cancelling of yesterday evening’s Eurozone leader meeting. It was hoped that yesterday’s meeting would see the Eurozone leaders approve Greece’s proposed austerity budget plans and pave the way for that country to receive the required bailout funds. Our G10 analyst sees a Greek default as almost inevitable, and while withdrawal from the EMU is not a fait accompli, he feels that the probability of this happening is rising continuously (see G10 Daily — What if? dated 16 February 2012).

For precious metals, as well as commodities in general, if a default and/or withdrawal should occur, there are several important considerations. First, a drop-off in the euro/dollar — a sudden drop to $1.20 appears likely — would of course be negative for commodity prices. Second, financial contagion which could prompt a drying up of money market liquidity, not only in Europe but across the globe. This, in our view would lead to a dramatic fall in commodities (although perhaps not as dramatic as the response to the 2008 credit crunch), even for those traditional safe-havens such as gold. Lastly, the real economic impact on Europe, and via its trade linkages around the globe, would also be felt in the demand for those metals with industrial applications.

Overnight, during Asian trading hours there was some bargain buying of gold and silver on dips below $1,722 and $33.32 respectively.

PGMs didn’t get much support from the Asian markets with some technical selling weighing down on prices. However, the dour mood has continued this morning, with precious metals continuing to lose ground, weighed down by an ever- strengthening dollar. Again, as in Asia, we are seeing some bargain hunting, although this time across the complex, which might place a floor on further downside.

Gold support is at $1,713 and $1,706. Resistance is $1,733 and $1,745. Silver support is at $32.92 and $32.60, resistance is at $33.76 and $34.28.

Platinum support is at $1,613 and $1,607, resistance is at $1,629 and $1,645. Palladium support is at $677 and resistance at $692.

[churchill]

Its only paper ...

Police arrest 8, seize $6 bln in fake U.S. bonds

Swiss swoop on Italy-based international fraud gang

http://www.ansa.it/web/notizie/rubriche/english/2012/02/17/visualizza_new.html_99763878.html

[DavidMavec]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-17/gold-traders-get-more-bullish-as-billionaire-paulson-says-buy-commodities.html

[muchogra]

Hey, naam, I thought you don't read what experts write. You quote them though. I guess people just quote for convenience afterall.

I read in headlines that Europe might reduce interest rate to facilitate whatever it's going on. I thought that might depreciate the Euro against the dollar. If gold is quoted in dollar, then gold price in dollar might drop. Yes, a simpleton like me read things like this. Why the headache reading tons of stuff and getting nowhere?

I shorted gold at the Thai Exchange today at 25380 (Feb). Closed 30% of my trade at 25290 the same day. Shorted again but doubled at 25330. Now, this is purely gambling but it has been boring. Trading SET50 gets your adrenaline going but it's heavily manipulated and definitely not for the faint-hearted. If one doesn't have a conviction of where the market is going but trade on ups and downs with stops, 80% of the time you get stopped out and lose. The rest of the 20%, you get pittance - not enough to cover your losses from the stops!

Where is gold going? Please tell me!

[Naam]

Where is gold going? Please tell me!

why would anybody dare to advise an expert like you?

[churchill]

I think a deal for Greece will be cobbled together ... but that is the beginning rather than the end ...

and after all this time Baroso , Gollum and Co are way behind the curve and it seems out of touch with reality ...

Greece's day of reckoning is only the start

http://www.actionforex.com/analysis/weekly-forex-fundamentals/greece's-day-of-reckoning-is-only-the-start-20120218159713/?utm_source=feedburner

[Heimdallr]

http://www.bloomberg...ommodities.html

Look at that, Paulson is looking to unload some of his gold assets after realizing he may be wrong. His 2011 was absolutely terrible. A lot less are betting on gold in the long term but it's very attractive to tap in to the short term volatility that may be on its' way.

[Naam]

I think a deal for Greece will be cobbled together ... but that is the beginning rather than the end ...

i agree! unfortunately (or fortunately?) "they" found various ways to "keep on kicking the can further down the road" (as our good friend Flying mentioned so often). in essence that means that the result will be more terrible the longer the can is kicked.

[churchill]

Why is this corruption still allowed to continue ... There are criminals in finance who finance politicians ... selling hugh amounts of stock one doesn't own cannot be legal ...

http://www.wired.com...-speed-trading/

Nanosecond Trading Could Make Markets Go Haywire

The Casino has to get its rules sorted so that we all have a fair shot ...!!

Edited February 18, 2012 by churchill

[udonguy]

I think a deal for Greece will be cobbled together ... but that is the beginning rather than the end ...

i agree! unfortunately (or fortunately?) "they" found various ways to "keep on kicking the can further down the road" (as our good friend Flying mentioned so often). in essence that means that the result will be more terrible the longer the can is kicked.

this is not a 'catch' question - what is the alternative? IS there one? I can't see ANY light at the end of this 'can kicking'

[flying]

I think a deal for Greece will be cobbled together ... but that is the beginning rather than the end ...

i agree! unfortunately (or fortunately?) "they" found various ways to "keep on kicking the can further down the road" (as our good friend Flying mentioned so often). in essence that means that the result will be more terrible the longer the can is kicked.

this is not a 'catch' question - what is the alternative? IS there one? I can't see ANY light at the end of this 'can kicking'

There has long been an alternative & every one of the bloody government knew what it was

Instead of growing the problem we start the repairs but..............Part & parcel of the repair is suffering

There is shrinking of Government.....There is shrinking of spending dollars they do not have...Whether that is by stopping support of the Military Industrial Complex & ending stupid senseless wars or whether that means cutting the sheer size of our over bloated government.

It means reforming the banking industry & letting fail that which did not succeed as always.

Iceland may be a tiny model but they took their medicine & at least appear to start on a road to recovery.

The US & others prefer to keep injecting themselves with more of the same drug that made them into the decaying addicts they have become

I agree with you in that there is no light at the end of the can kicking. The snowball has already rolled so far & grown so big I do not see much possible. Perhaps the all out WWIII they are itching for may confuse & distract enough for TPTB to redistribute once again. But I do not think eveyone is as stupid as they once were.....At least I hope not.

Edited February 19, 2012 by flying

[churchill]

Somehow growth and investment needed to be encouraged .. Greece exporting energy to Germany seems a good start

"How can the Greek economy be brought back on its feet? One recipe for success is investments in renewable energy. Initiatives like the Helios Solar Project, which was initiated by the government in Athens, could boost exports to Germany and other countries and thus improve Greek trade deficits."

https://ip-journal.dgap.org/en/ip-journal/regions/helios-rescue

[gregb]

I think a deal for Greece will be cobbled together ... but that is the beginning rather than the end ...

i agree! unfortunately (or fortunately?) "they" found various ways to "keep on kicking the can further down the road" (as our good friend Flying mentioned so often). in essence that means that the result will be more terrible the longer the can is kicked.

this is not a 'catch' question - what is the alternative? IS there one? I can't see ANY light at the end of this 'can kicking'

If one was forced to guess the tragedy in Greece will likely end similarly to the tragedy in Iceland. The light will only become visible after they have left the EU and begun the very difficult road to recovery. Right now, everyone is struggling to avoid the arduous task of locating the light switch and the long walk to brightness that will follow.

For other countries, such as the USA, the can kicking will continue further and longer. The light at the end of the American empire will likely take the same appearance as every other empire throughout history in its final days. Possibly with some kind of war and a breakup of the union into smaller republics similar to what happened to the old Soviet Union. The problem stems from overly complex systems that are incapable of adapting to new global realities. And since the work of governments is without fail to layer additional complexity onto a system in order to solve a particular problem, all government solutions are essentially self defeating.

Collapse and reorganization are marvellous things in their ability to find a new equilibrium at a lower level of complexity. But people now are foolishly trying to prevent that outcome, rather than embracing it for the salvation that it is.

There is a light. It just isn't the light that everyone wants.

[Naam]

Somehow growth and investment needed to be encouraged .. Greece exporting energy to Germany seems a good start

"How can the Greek economy be brought back on its feet? One recipe for success is investments in renewable energy. Initiatives like the Helios Solar Project, which was initiated by the government in Athens, could boost exports to Germany and other countries and thus improve Greek trade deficits."

the beauty of these brilliant ideas is that if a decision is made on monday, the project can be built on tuesday, commissioned on wednesday and by thursday afternoon the solar power generated in Greece is available for download to all German powerhungry companies which have an internet connection.

[Naam]

I think a deal for Greece will be cobbled together ... but that is the beginning rather than the end ...

i agree! unfortunately (or fortunately?) "they" found various ways to "keep on kicking the can further down the road" (as our good friend Flying mentioned so often). in essence that means that the result will be more terrible the longer the can is kicked.

this is not a 'catch' question - what is the alternative? IS there one? I can't see ANY light at the end of this 'can kicking'

kicking the Greek can buys (and has already bought!) time for other "pigs" which are in a better position to solve their debt problems at least partially and sustainable for (some) years to come. but in my [not so] humble opinion the big debt blow-up is unavoidable and it is not limited to a fistful of "ClubMed" countries.

[jackinbkk]

Somehow growth and investment needed to be encouraged .. Greece exporting energy to Germany seems a good start

"How can the Greek economy be brought back on its feet? One recipe for success is investments in renewable energy. Initiatives like the Helios Solar Project, which was initiated by the government in Athens, could boost exports to Germany and other countries and thus improve Greek trade deficits."

https://ip-journal.d...s/helios-rescue

I'm just entering this thread at this point so if what I say has been covered before, sorry about that.

It seems that solar power isn't all it could be yet. Look at places like Thailand which must have so much more free solar energy bouncing around. Yet the majority of its power comes from gas, coal and oil. A lot does come from hydroelectric but it's not even 9% of the amount made by gas.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/thailand/electricity-production-kwh-wb-data.html

I doubt Greece has as much hydro potential either. The power made from solar would then have to be transported to Germany etc. This would be very expensive to setup due to metal prices I imagine, It is probably also very wasteful to transport electricity over such a large distance.

I could see the costs of a project like solar power taking a very long time to recoup.

There is also the fact the solar power has been questioned for it's worth. The act of trapping solar energy warms the collectors. This heat is trapped warming the environment around it. More and more black collectors will actually warm the planet instead of the solar rays bouncing back into space. If the aim is preventing man made climate change then solar power doesn't seem a good idea.

To me this scheme sound like paying people to build houses and then paying them to blow them up for the sake of making jobs. Jobs which are not productive and have a net -ve flow but stimulate the economy purely by cash flows.

There must be more productive means.

It's difficult when you are asking statistically the laziest nation in Europe to work the hardest through austerity measures. Pay your taxes, cut the corruption, work the hours everyone else works, be profitable and stop looking for hand outs.If the rest of us can do it then surely Greece can too. They are now being asked to pay back the easy ride they took in the past. It's nobody's fault but Greece itself.

[binjalin]

Well will it hold? Its broken the 1750 and hanging on at 1770

[flying]

Hiding the Elephant: Fort Knox’s Vanishing Act

[churchill]

Well will it hold? Its broken the 1750 and hanging on at 1770

Looks like it is going higher ..

Gold & Silver Price Poised To Rise Further

http://thefundamentalview.blogspot.com/2012/02/gold-silver-price-poised-to-rise.html

and

I picked this up from comments on another site so take with a pinch but makes sense ..

'The other main reason friday will close at the high (and higher than now) is that there are very many weekly trading systems.

But when you design such a system you have to decide to either wait till the fri close is marked and then act on your system. OR you anticipate the close or the odds your system will go green (long) in this case.

The first guy says "I'll decide 5 min to close."

The second guy decides "10 min before close".

The third guy says "I'm too big, I need hundreds of millions, I have to start at noon".

Etc.

Of course if you call you system green too early before the close and get it wrong, then you have made another mistake which you can't undo until monday - potentially at great risk.

So there is a balance and a bit of statistics and probability to guys doing weekly systems. It all depends.

But all-in-all we had 3-4 weeks of FLAT gold (which basically resets most indicators on most systems) and now we have a single week surging out of that congestion. Very VERY few systems will call this as a short. The vast majority will swing long - at least for a week or two - on what we are seeing.

Thus, long story short, as the fri close approaches the various systems anticipating their signals long will push things near the high ending the week.

I could always be wrong and something weird could happen, but that isn't the way to bet.The weekly systems won't usually try to call things before fri, which is why to HUMANS the week can seem widely bullish based on what they are seeing, but can languish wed/thurs before continuing to shoot up on fri.

It's the weekly traders coming in.

(And yes, some will wait till monday which also avoids weekend risk which might be beneficial) ''

So time to go long if your not already ...

[Naam]

But all-in-all we had 3-4 weeks of FLAT gold (which basically resets most indicators on most systems) and now we have a single week surging out of that congestion.

i don't see any "surge" when i look at Gold in EUR, GBP or THB. what we are seeing is a weak USD and Gold adjusting.

[churchill]

But all-in-all we had 3-4 weeks of FLAT gold (which basically resets most indicators on most systems) and now we have a single week surging out of that congestion.

i don't see any "surge" when i look at Gold in EUR, GBP or THB. what we are seeing is a weak USD and Gold adjusting.

up from 1720 to 1770 is quite a surge 3% odd in a few days ..

Sterling Gold surging Higher

http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2012/02/sterling-gold-surging-higher.html

[Naam]

up from 1720 to 1770 is quite a surge 3% odd in a few days ..

Dollar lost 2.7% vs. EUR in a few days that makes the "surge" a princely 0.3%

[binjalin]

1780......

[Naam]

1780......

Gold up 0.56%, Dollar down 0.84%

[ExpatJ]

If there is a clash between Isreal and Iran gold will hit 2000 US$/oz .

[udonguy]

If there is a clash between Isreal and Iran gold will hit 2000 US$/oz .

2000? you're dreaming if there was a REAL clash you have got to be talking 2500/3000 not just a raise of 220 US