Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[Naam]

You sound like you're looking for investment advice, here's my ten cents:

For every person who says it's going to soar there's an equal number who think it's going to sink.

and for every intelligent person who says "fiat money is worthless" there are a few billions of stupid persons who wish to own a big heap of that worthless fiat money.

[flying]

Well I was just interested to hear what all the posters on here think - without a critique on the world economy and without 'noise' just what do people 'think'. I deduce that the vast majority believe the worlds economy will further implode and some say it's the end almost. So where is Gold going (and silver too) after 100s of pages of posts one might think someone has an idea? To believe it is all 'luck' and there is NO way of analyzing where PMs are likely to go is a very depressing thought.

I like to Keep It Simple

& have done so since the start.

I have also suggested many times over the years in this thread that a person

should have their own premise for buying....

If their reason for buying has not been breached then why sell?

What were their reasons for buying? Were their reasons validated by rise in price over these last years?

They should have had a premise when they bought & that premise also includes when they would sell.

If the reasons for buying are still valid today then they have their answer & yours too actually

Use your eyes ears & brain to decide what is reality. Do not trust anyone's crystal ball nor any feel good news reports, nor anyone's doom & gloom reports either.

Just my 2 cents

Edited May 8, 2012 by flying

[ronz28]

I think the sudden overnight implementation of a change in margin requirements to have been implemented May 7 that doubles requirements for some and then today's 90 day reprieve may spook some in the commodity markets for awhile. http://www.bloomberg...s-on-may-7.html

Those affected will be shedding their part of their positions funded with margin and will potentially have a negative impact on prices in those markets including gold.

It may not stop with those initially identified to be subject to the change in the rule book, IMHO.

Edited May 8, 2012 by ronz28

[churchill]

You sound like you're looking for investment advice, here's my ten cents:

For every person who says it's going to soar there's an equal number who think it's going to sink.

Well I was just interested to hear what all the posters on here think - without a critique on the world economy and without 'noise' just what do people 'think'. I deduce that the vast majority believe the worlds economy will further implode and some say it's the end almost. So where is Gold going (and silver too) after 100s of pages of posts one might think someone has an idea? To believe it is all 'luck' and there is NO way of analyzing where PMs are likely to go is a very depressing thought.

I think that if you believe that current governments in Europe and the US can control spending now ........and future spending without having to further print or to suppress interest rates then invest elsewhere

If you believe current governments cannot control spending , cannot pay future obligations without printing .. then gold is a good option as a hedge /

I suppose gold is a hedge against political failure as well as financial and others /

and it seems a spring is set .......

quite probable ..

http://www.smartmoneytracker.blogspot.com/2012/05/gold-is-at-or-nearing-bottom.html

Edited May 8, 2012 by churchill

[letitbe]

Why do people in their old age keep saying to buy gold (physically). If you are so damm sure, buy paper gold and carry it on on the forward contract. Anything stopping you? Sure! You arn't sure! Or, you don't have the conviction to commit the fund you have.

I ain't as old as some of you but I know i live in the present unlike some of you. I ain't betting 30 years from now when I may be dead, but some of you sure seem to be arguing for that. Good luck buddies! For the present, I will long gold today, but not the physical!

are you mad if real then your contracts are going to be worth about same as toilet paper. If you like ill sell you a contract for 1 million $ of gold long at any price you care to mention and ill quote you a good rate but dont come asking for it or any paper profit if I go completely tits up. Do you live in some ivory tower or have you never heard about MF global and rest. And if you think its not going to happen for many years and so your contracts can easily be sold out in plenty of time youve obviously never experienced a severe sudden price correction wither way up or down. But im sure youll argue its all hedges. Continue with your illusions ill just carry on accumulating real stuff mostly in my own grubby hands although we do hold some paper still but then if you dont have any real wealth then you have no choice I guess.

[Jayman]

gold in a bit of a free fall right now current $1616

[letitbe]

ive phoned UK customs and they tell me I need to declare it but when I said but theirs no tax or duty on gold was told you still need to declare but if thats right and you can show you got it legally no problems. Ill probably take a few 100 gm swiss pamp gold bars over next trip and declare it just to test that. I have brought lots more through before as gold jewelry on me and no problems. I was just going ot say if asked id had it for years and claim ignorance and since it was only about 12 baht and gold was a lot cheaper then I doubt they would have made a fuss

Letitbe, we were discussing coins and the different value of coins, i.e. face value and actual value and which value to declare when crossing a border. there is no disagreement as far as bullion is concerned.

ive phoned UK customs and they tell me I need to declare it but when I said but theirs no tax or duty on gold was told you still need to declare but if thats right and you can show you got it legally no problems. Ill probably take a few 100 gm swiss pamp gold bars over next trip and declare it just to test that. I have brought lots more through before as gold jewelry on me and no problems. I was just going ot say if asked id had it for years and claim ignorance and since it was only about 12 baht and gold was a lot cheaper then I doubt they would have made a fuss

Letitbe, we were discussing coins and the different value of coins, i.e. face value and actual value and which value to declare when crossing a border. there is no disagreement as far as bullion is concerned.

i know i was just pointing out that weather its coins or bullian in UK at least no problem to bring it in just delare it so why are people trying to find ways to bring it in without simply delaring it or is their tax on gold in USA. If its dirty money then odd 9995 $ is hardly of any significance. Many countries have no problem just letting you bring in gold a long as you declare it and if their no tax then whats fuss ? NOw for UK silver is different since theirs 20% vat on silver so for that you need to take it to a country with no tax on silver which are not as many as for gold.

[binjalin]

gold in a bit of a free fall right now current $1616

But how??? Greece has gone against the government in power who supported austerity, France has booted out Germany's buddy for President you would think Gold would be UP

[letitbe]

You sound like you're looking for investment advice, here's my ten cents:

For every person who says it's going to soar there's an equal number who think it's going to sink.

Well I was just interested to hear what all the posters on here think - without a critique on the world economy and without 'noise' just what do people 'think'. I deduce that the vast majority believe the worlds economy will further implode and some say it's the end almost. So where is Gold going (and silver too) after 100s of pages of posts one might think someone has an idea? To believe it is all 'luck' and there is NO way of analyzing where PMs are likely to go is a very depressing thought.

You sound like you're looking for investment advice, here's my ten cents:

For every person who says it's going to soar there's an equal number who think it's going to sink.

Well I was just interested to hear what all the posters on here think - without a critique on the world economy and without 'noise' just what do people 'think'. I deduce that the vast majority believe the worlds economy will further implode and some say it's the end almost. So where is Gold going (and silver too) after 100s of pages of posts one might think someone has an idea? To believe it is all 'luck' and there is NO way of analyzing where PMs are likely to go is a very depressing thought.

I can tell you for sure gold will be 1580 on June 12 and rise to 1845 on December 21 and then next year will collapse totally. No one knows why is that so difficult for you to understand. Obviously some of us think it will go up. In end its just an insurance against massive inflation or other bad events. Anyone who says they know is a fool same as fools who said houses can only go up etc etc Like nearly everything in life different people have totally different predictions. Obviously those of us who think it very likely that their will be a huge financial crash think gold is a safer heaven than other assets and particularly against fiat money. Will 1 onz gold buy more rice or oil or property instead of say present 1740$ in fiat is the way everyone should IMO look at it. It could also go up hugely against say GBP and at same time go down a lot against swiss franc.

[letitbe]

gold in a bit of a free fall right now current $1616

you think a fall of around what 30$ or so on 1616 which is what less than a 1% fall is a free fall. You cant have many stocks or other easily liquid assets from such a stupid statement. What was fall from 1910 to around 1700 then which was a drop of around 11% and then down to 1616 which is a drop of around 16% or say drop from 48$ for silver to 30 or so. Those must have been a total wipeout but ive lost more than those % on many stocks and gained more than any of that as well. WOnt bother me if it drops 10% tomorrow to around 1480 in fact id sell everything I could quick and buy. Anyone even remotely concerned about price change of up or down up to 15% should not be investing.

[binjalin]

Someone, somewhere must be setting the price even if us zillion plebs don't know

[chiang mai]

Mr Market is setting the price.

[binjalin]

Mr Market is setting the price.

Mr Market is setting the price.

Mr Market is setting the price.

Mr market is having affairs that Mrs market doesn't know about

[Jayman]

gold in a bit of a free fall right now current $1616

you think a fall of around what 30$ or so on 1616 which is what less than a 1% fall is a free fall. You cant have many stocks or other easily liquid assets from such a stupid statement. What was fall from 1910 to around 1700 then which was a drop of around 11% and then down to 1616 which is a drop of around 16% or say drop from 48$ for silver to 30 or so. Those must have been a total wipeout but ive lost more than those % on many stocks and gained more than any of that as well. WOnt bother me if it drops 10% tomorrow to around 1480 in fact id sell everything I could quick and buy. Anyone even remotely concerned about price change of up or down up to 15% should not be investing.

Yes I call that drop in such a short time period a free fall.. as you can see it's still going.

now at 1603

free fall refers to not stopping at support but breaking through it like it wasn't even there.

Edited May 8, 2012 by Jayman

[edgarfriendly]

gold in a bit of a free fall right now current $1616

You cant have many stocks or other easily liquid assets from such a stupid statement, i've lost more than those % on many stocks and gained more than any of that as well.

WOnt bother me if it drops 10% tomorrow to around 1480 in fact id sell everything I could quick and buy.

Genius!!

Do you have a newsletter i can subscribe to?

1602.40

Edited May 8, 2012 by edgarfriendly

[Jayman]

The drop looks to be contained at the strong psyc 1600 support... we'll see how it plays... if that breaks we will easily see another $20+ drop

spoke too soon.. broke 1600.. 1596... lets see how it plays out

Edited May 8, 2012 by Jayman

[Naam]

Mr Market is setting the price...

...and thereby proves that precious metals are not different from anything else that moves according to offer and demand, be it assets, consumables, services or whatever one can think of. intrinsic value does not exist without demand. the fact remains that intrinsic value or any value is created by demand. as simple as that.

[Naam]

free fall refers to not stopping at support but breaking through it like it wasn't even there.

i agree that the expression "free fall" might be warranted. but using the expression "support" is illogical. something breaks/falls through a support is evidence for a logical person that said "support" did not exist but was invented by @nal-bullshitters who make money by selling their voodoo, which might or might not apply, to unsuspecting believers who's actions might cause a self-fulling prophecy.

nevertheless all voodoo preachings have built in many "supports" (such as ifs, could, would, on one hand, on the other hand, etc.) which later support the excuses if the voodoo prophecies turn out to be worthless bla-bla.

[Jayman]

free fall refers to not stopping at support but breaking through it like it wasn't even there.

i agree that the expression "free fall" might be warranted. but using the expression "support" is illogical. something breaks/falls through a support is evidence for a logical person that said "support" did not exist but was invented by @nal-bullshitters who make money by selling their voodoo, which might or might not apply, to unsuspecting believers who's actions might cause a self-fulling prophecy.

nevertheless all voodoo preachings have built in many "supports" (such as ifs, could, would, on one hand, on the other hand, etc.) which later support the excuses if the voodoo prophecies turn out to be worthless bla-bla.

Not sure what you are driving at Lt but the all markets have many support and resistance levels that have been determined from one of many reasons. If one is broken it doesn't mean that it never existed. It just means the move was stronger than the level could hold.

No clue why you are always bring voodoo and fairy's into the discussion here other than to cloud up the discussion here.

For further explanation as to how support/resistance levels are formed... One way is when large commercial buys put in limit orders at certain levels. If they hit a buy limit area this acts as support and if the sell limit is hit it acts as resistance. Once would expect to see a slowdown or even reversal at these levels. Of course, if the move is strong enough (ie more selling than the commercial buys are buying) then the support level won't hold and the price will continue to drop. You can also think of support/resistance levels as demand/supply levels.

side note- boy it's hard to not hear Warf's voice when reading your statement "but using the expression "support" is illogical."

Edited May 8, 2012 by Jayman

[Jayman]

http://www.theglobea.../article2426508

http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/05/08/us-markets-precious-idINBRE8390RW20120508

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK BLEAK

Analysts said gold could fall further if it fails to hold above $1,600 an ounce as there is little underpinning from technical charts under that level.

“The fact that support has been broken on a daily, weekly and monthly time frame suggest that this selloff could get worse,” said Adam Sarhan, CEO of investment research and consultant Sarhan Capital.

Sarhan said gold was already testing the lows of 2012 when Tuesday’s heavy losses sent the metal below heavy daily and weekly support between $1,620 and $1,630 an ounce as well as its 18-month upward trendline on monthly charts.

Edited May 8, 2012 by Jayman

[flying]

http://www.theglobea.../article2426508

http://in.reuters.co...E8390RW20120508

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK BLEAK

Analysts said gold could fall further if it fails to hold above $1,600 an ounce as there is little underpinning from technical charts under that level.

“The fact that support has been broken on a daily, weekly and monthly time frame suggest that this selloff could get worse,” said Adam Sarhan, CEO of investment research and consultant Sarhan Capital.

Sarhan said gold was already testing the lows of 2012 when Tuesday’s heavy losses sent the metal below heavy daily and weekly support between $1,620 and $1,630 an ounce as well as its 18-month upward trendline on monthly charts.

Actually it was not long ago that it dipped below.

I have noticed in recent months it is range bound in the 1650 areas

Edited May 8, 2012 by flying

[Jayman]

removed

Edited May 8, 2012 by Jayman

[edgarfriendly]

[hyperdimension]

But also we must remember leaving the US is one thing.....entering another country is another.

At that point it is the customs agent that will decide & if he has one interpretation & we have another I tend to think it is his that will stand.

Whatever happened with this guy?:

American Arrested in Mexico for Carrying 150 Gold Coins; Coins Seized

The Federal Police arrested at the International Airport of Mexico City, U.S. [citizen] Martin Thomas Arnold, 58 years old, who was scheduled to travel to Panama with 150 gold coins in his possession, with a total weight of five kilos 33 grams.

Arnold even had a receipt for some of the coins and it appears there was no legitimate reason for them to be seized, or for him to be arrested.

According to a Sify news report, the gold coins were found in the baggage of a Arnold as he awaited a flight to Panama from the Mexico City airport, officials said.

Arnold appeared visibly nervous' prompting agents to run his suitcase through a scanner, which detected several containers inside, the Mexican Public Safety Secretariat said.

One container held 50 gold coins with the legend 'Suid Afrika-South Africa' on them and two others had 100 coins inside that said 'United States of America'.

The coins weighed a total of more than five kg, the secretariat said.

Though Arnold even showed a receipt that he had with him for the purchase of 50 of the gold coins worth $1,171 each, he was turned over to prosecutors, the secretariat said.

[hyperdimension]

20% in a non bank safe deposit box in Singapore and 20% with HSBC Hong Kong.

What are the storage costs in Singapore and Hong Kong?

[Jayman]

But also we must remember leaving the US is one thing.....entering another country is another.

At that point it is the customs agent that will decide & if he has one interpretation & we have another I tend to think it is his that will stand.

Whatever happened with this guy?:

American Arrested in Mexico for Carrying 150 Gold Coins; Coins Seized

The Federal Police arrested at the International Airport of Mexico City, U.S. [citizen] Martin Thomas Arnold, 58 years old, who was scheduled to travel to Panama with 150 gold coins in his possession, with a total weight of five kilos 33 grams.

Arnold even had a receipt for some of the coins and it appears there was no legitimate reason for them to be seized, or for him to be arrested.

According to a Sify news report, the gold coins were found in the baggage of a Arnold as he awaited a flight to Panama from the Mexico City airport, officials said.

Arnold appeared visibly nervous' prompting agents to run his suitcase through a scanner, which detected several containers inside, the Mexican Public Safety Secretariat said.

One container held 50 gold coins with the legend 'Suid Afrika-South Africa' on them and two others had 100 coins inside that said 'United States of America'.

The coins weighed a total of more than five kg, the secretariat said.

Though Arnold even showed a receipt that he had with him for the purchase of 50 of the gold coins worth $1,171 each, he was turned over to prosecutors, the secretariat said.

Would be interested to hear why he was arrested and what the outcome was. Krugs don't have a face value on them but in any case seems very silly to arrested over carrying gold in your bags.

[Jayman]

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/gold-investments-market-update/2012/05/09/

Some decent demand from South East Asia has been reported at the $1,600/oz level and there are also reports from Reuters of a “semi-official buyer of gold” emerging “on dip below $1,600/oz”.

Gold’s weakness yesterday may have been again due to dollar strength and oil weakness - oil is now below $97 a barrel (NYMEX). It may also have been due to wholesale liquidation which created a new bout of "risk off" which has seen global equities and commodities all come under pressure.

However, gold’s weakness yesterday was also contributed to by more unusual trading activity. As trading in New York got underway, there was an unusually large bout of selling with some 6,000 gold futures contracts sold in minutes and this led to gold's initial $10 fall to the $1,615/oz level.

Momentum driven algorithm trading may have then led to follow through selling and the initial sell off may have emboldened tech traders to sell more leading to the falls below $1,600/oz.

Given strong store of wealth demand from the Middle East and China (as seen in figures yesterday), long term buyers will use this sell off to again accumulate bullion.

Greece’s problems coupled with France’s election of socialist candidate Francois Hollande as President creates a disruption of old Franco German alliances. Hollande and the socialist victory in France will likely be positive for gold as he favours looser fiscal and monetary policies in the EU.

Spot gold hasn’t seen these levels since early January and the next level of support for gold is $1,580/oz and then $1,545/oz – the low on December 29th 2011.

[letitbe]

20% in a non bank safe deposit box in Singapore and 20% with HSBC Hong Kong.

What are the storage costs in Singapore and Hong Kong?

20% in a non bank safe deposit box in Singapore and 20% with HSBC Hong Kong.

What are the storage costs in Singapore and Hong Kong?

Singapore depends on size of course but from around 59 us$ a year I have not checked hong kong but porbably same Singapore price was from private security firm not a bank Banks charge more but theirs a waiting list and most insist you are a customer

[flying]

Would be interested to hear why he was arrested and what the outcome was. Krugs don't have a face value on them but in any case seems very silly to arrested over carrying gold in your bags.

I have not seen/heard what happened ultimately with this guy.

But I think a lot of places are now at a point where they like to make you prove how you obtained what your carrying.

It seems it is not their job to prove it is not yours but your job to prove it is.

messed up

[Jayman]

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Gold had a weekly plunge of about $60 range and printed its low at $1578.35, a 4-month low, after Jan-3 low of $1566.85.

After reaching the low, the precious metal retraced back to 1588/95 area, in where it has been ranging since.

Below the 1585 support area, Gold could target December 19 low, at 1522.60. On the upside, resistance might be found at $1600 psychological level and $1612 (April-4 low).