Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[Jayman]

Swissy is pegged to the Euro. We are coming up on the 1 year birthday of that peg. Why anyone would want to trade one against the other is beyond me. Is like watching paint dry.

Edited August 22, 2012 by Jayman

[Naam]

EUR and CHF are still ugly

there's not much to harvest in CHF but i like the "ugly" ~11% (calculated vs. USD) in EUR denominated subs of the last 5-6 weeks thanks to Draghi. should rumours come true that Merkel backs Draghi i expect another 3-5% within days.

You are right, but I mainly trade FX with about 200% to 300% leverage, so going long in EUR would scare the shit out of me.

a fair statement

[manarak]

Swissy is pegged to the Euro. We are coming up on the 1 year birthday of that peg. Why anyone would want to trade one against the other is beyond me. Is like watching paint dry.

err... who suggested trading EURCHF ?

[Naam]

Swissy is pegged to the Euro. We are coming up on the 1 year birthday of that peg. Why anyone would want to trade one against the other is beyond me. Is like watching paint dry.

err... who suggested trading EURCHF ?

people who can't read?

[Jayman]

I think gold might see a new push upwards soon, because the AUD is losing its attractiveness (safe heaven and low yield compared to negative yield elsewhere), the EUR and CHF are still ugly (except if the CHF breaks its peg, unlikely), and the USD is still not in good shape.

I didn't before, but I am now seriously thinking about shifting into gold.

Or people that flat out talk about the EUR CHF peg in their post.

[churchill]

Soros buys....

Pimco buys ..

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-08-22/pimco-fund-expands-gold-holding-on-outlook-for-inflation

Central Banks continue ..

http://www.bullionstreet.com/news/gold-becomes-darling-of-central-banks-on-dollar-instability/2674

Things Are Looking Up for Gold

http://www.moneymorning.com.au/20120823/things-are-looking-up-for-gold.html

not forgetting Basel III rules

http://www.commodityonline.com/news/basel-iii-rules-may-boost-gold-buying-by-banks-48318-3-48319.html

or more QE from everywhere ......

[Naam]

[Naam]

According to SEC filings George Soros has been back buying gold - and this on its own has probably given a lift to the gold price, with many big money investors likely to see that as a lead to follow. Soros famously described gold as being the ‘ultimate bubble' a year or so ago, although the quote was largely taken out of context. He was also said to have sold a large proportion of his gold holdings last year, but is now seen as climbing back in with substantial purchases in the SPDR Gold ETF in the first quarter.

http://www.mineweb.c...52848&sn=Detail

was it perhaps Soros' buying that weakened the gold price?

[midas]

I think gold will go up because a war is looking more and more likely

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/21/us-syria-crisis-idUSBRE8610SH20120821

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-14/israel-plans-for-iran-strike-as-citizens-say-government-serious.html

[manarak]

I think gold will go up because a war is looking more and more likely

http://www.reuters.c...E8610SH20120821

http://www.bloomberg...nt-serious.html

Hihihi don't make me laugh!

Obama showing resolve and risking war to save these poor Syrians, after all the pull out of Afghanistan paroles, and Assad didn't even break some pretty towers in the US - I'd be very surprised if there still was a risk of war after the election. The Russians are giving him some playground where he can show he's the strong man, LOL.

Edited August 23, 2012 by manarak

[manarak]

I think gold might see a new push upwards soon, because the AUD is losing its attractiveness (safe heaven and low yield compared to negative yield elsewhere), the EUR and CHF are still ugly (except if the CHF breaks its peg, unlikely), and the USD is still not in good shape.

I didn't before, but I am now seriously thinking about shifting into gold.

Or people that flat out talk about the EUR CHF peg in their post.

you got that wrong. BECAUSE of the peg, the CHF is as ugly as the EUR to hold as an asset. UNLESS the CHF breaks the peg, in which case the CHF becomes suay mak mak again.

If I ever write about trading EURCHF, I will say the latter or EUR vs. CHF or EUR against CHF or something like that, but not "EUR and CHF".

Edited August 23, 2012 by manarak

[midas]

I think gold will go up because a war is looking more and more likely

http://www.reuters.c...E8610SH20120821

http://www.bloomberg...nt-serious.html

Hihihi don't make me laugh!

Obama showing resolve and risking war to save these poor Syrians, after all the pull out of Afghanistan paroles, and Assad didn't even break some pretty towers in the US - I'd be very surprised if there still was a risk of war after the election. The Russians are giving him some playground where he can show he's the strong man, LOL.

anyone who thinks Obama is the one making the decisions is delusional

it's a Prime Minister and his group of nutcases who are hellbent on picking a fight

Edited August 23, 2012 by midas

[Naam]

I think gold will go up because a war is looking more and more likely

http://www.reuters.c...E8610SH20120821

http://www.bloomberg...nt-serious.html

that gold will go up in this case goes indeed without saying.

[edgarfriendly]

Seems no -ones mentioned the recent gains in Gold...

Robots - check

Foreign Exchange - check

Leveraging - check

CHF - check

EUR - check

Obama - check

Syria - check

Gold - uhh...?

[Naam]

Gold - uhh...?

here's the beef Edgar:

The Minutes of the FOMC struck a very dovish tone, signaling an increased

willingness among Committee members to provide additional accommodation to the

US economy. In particular, the Minutes indicate that many are concerned that if

the current modest pace of economic growth were to persist it will make the

recovery vulnerable to adverse shocks, which could push the economic recovery

back into a recession. More importantly, many members believe that the current

trajectory for inflation and unemployment could mean that the Fed could miss

both target in the medium term outside of further policy action.

With the exception of one member, the Minutes underscored the willingness among

FOMC voters to engage in another round of LSAP, with the report stating that

"many members judged that additional monetary accommodation would likely be

warranted fairly soon unless incoming information pointed to a substantial and

sustainable strengthening in the pace of the economic recovery." This reference

is key as it reinforces our long-standing belief that the burden of proof has

remained on the data to prove that further policy easing will not be required.

As such, notwithstanding the modest improvement in the economic data in recent

weeks, there is little to suggests that this high threshold for averting further

policy action has been met, making the likelihood of further action high.

Furthermore, the willingness of members to consider taking action "soon"

suggests that the timing for action may be sooner rather than later, which means

that the Fed is not being encumbered by the election calendar. The discourse

among members suggests a wide acceptance to do something at the September

meeting. In particular, it noted that there was widespread support among members

to extend the forward guidance reference at the August meeting, but the decision

was deferred to the September meeting so that it can be done in the context of

the SEP and "further consideration of its policy options" - that is, any changes

in the forward guidance will be done in the context of a bigger stimulus

initiative.

In our view, the bias continues to be for another round of LSAP announcement in

September, with the Minutes indicating a preference for a "sufficiently

flexible" program, which we believe is consistent with an open-ended

initiative.Notice - Data Prepared by Outside Sources: Information contained

herein may be derived from sources outside Beta Capital Mgmt LP (BCM). Such

information is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy has not been certified.

BCM has not verified the contents of this information and any third party

research report. No reliance should be placed on the accuracy, or completeness

of the information and opinions/views may not reflect the views of BCM. BCM

assumes no liability for the information, which is being provided to solely for

evaluation and informational purposes. BCM is not responsible for any

recommendation, solicitation, offer or agreement, or transaction resulting from

this communication.

[crazykopite]

HOW LONG IS A PIECE OF STRING !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[manarak]

I went long in gold, financing the position by shorting CHF against USD to pay minimum interest, so in fact I hold XAUCHF.

I'm convinced gold will go up because of the following reasons:

- China slows down, this is already known, but it keeps slowing down even more

- With China slowing down, the resources sector is at risk, causing money outflow from AUD. RBA officials are surprised the AUD didn't fall more sharply, I think it takes no genius to recognize the AUD is the last freely tradable & healthy currency that is paying some interest, that's why it had a massive influx of capital.

- The EUR: in short, the EUR is f*cked and will stay f*cked for a long time. The reason I am unwilling to go long EUR is that I am unsure it has yet hit rock bottom. Many share my concerns, and more and more people in Europe take preventive measures against increased fiscal pressure (i.e. by fleeing the country, or at least sending their money elsewhere). There is a real danger of Germany being pulled down with the rest, and then the biggest spender will be gone. Danger Will Robinson!

- The USD: The USD is more or less in the same situation as Europe, but has much more potential for rebound. But at the moment, it is also unclear whether the USD has seen the low or if it will recover quickly, slowly, or ever.

- both EUR and USD will be pulled down by injection of fake money into the economy by their central banks (either quantitative easing or bond buyback/issue).

What remains? Gold, Platinum, Silver.

Gold has the most potential for a bubble, because of the multiplication of "paper gold", i.e. funds, futures, warrants, etc.

May our future be golden!

Edited August 24, 2012 by manarak

[Naam]

I went long in gold, financing the position by shorting CHF against USD to pay minimum interest, so in fact I hold XAUCHF.

what if the peg breaks Manarak? will you have time enough to bail out?

[Jayman]

Gold - uhh...?

here's the beef Edgar:

The Minutes of the FOMC struck a very dovish tone, signaling an increased

willingness among Committee members to provide additional accommodation to the

US economy. In particular, the Minutes indicate that many are concerned that if

the current modest pace of economic growth were to persist it will make the

recovery vulnerable to adverse shocks, which could push the economic recovery

back into a recession. More importantly, many members believe that the current

trajectory for inflation and unemployment could mean that the Fed could miss

both target in the medium term outside of further policy action.

With the exception of one member, the Minutes underscored the willingness among

FOMC voters to engage in another round of LSAP, with the report stating that

"many members judged that additional monetary accommodation would likely be

warranted fairly soon unless incoming information pointed to a substantial and

sustainable strengthening in the pace of the economic recovery." This reference

is key as it reinforces our long-standing belief that the burden of proof has

remained on the data to prove that further policy easing will not be required.

As such, notwithstanding the modest improvement in the economic data in recent

weeks, there is little to suggests that this high threshold for averting further

policy action has been met, making the likelihood of further action high.

Furthermore, the willingness of members to consider taking action "soon"

suggests that the timing for action may be sooner rather than later, which means

that the Fed is not being encumbered by the election calendar. The discourse

among members suggests a wide acceptance to do something at the September

meeting. In particular, it noted that there was widespread support among members

to extend the forward guidance reference at the August meeting, but the decision

was deferred to the September meeting so that it can be done in the context of

the SEP and "further consideration of its policy options" - that is, any changes

in the forward guidance will be done in the context of a bigger stimulus

initiative.

In our view, the bias continues to be for another round of LSAP announcement in

September, with the Minutes indicating a preference for a "sufficiently

flexible" program, which we believe is consistent with an open-ended

initiative.Notice - Data Prepared by Outside Sources: Information contained

herein may be derived from sources outside Beta Capital Mgmt LP (BCM). Such

information is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy has not been certified.

BCM has not verified the contents of this information and any third party

research report. No reliance should be placed on the accuracy, or completeness

of the information and opinions/views may not reflect the views of BCM. BCM

assumes no liability for the information, which is being provided to solely for

evaluation and informational purposes. BCM is not responsible for any

recommendation, solicitation, offer or agreement, or transaction resulting from

this communication.

What Mr. "Head in the clouds" fails to mention is that the minutes released are stale. That they were immediately refuted by FED Chairman Bullard

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/08/23/update-3-fed-bullard-minutes-bit-stale-data-since-stronger

LONDON (MNI) – The minutes of the last FOMC meeting are a “bit

stale” and data since then have been somewhat stronger, says St Louis

Federal Reserve President and Federal Open Market Committee member James

Bullard told CNBC television today.

Yet Bullard said that growth had disappointed expectations.

The comments followed the release of minutes for the last meeting

of the FOMC overnight, with markets seeing them as dovish in their

clear hints at further QE.

“Growth has not come in as strongly this year as we

expected…Things haven’t been where we’d like them to be,” he said.

Bullard continued:

“I do think the minutes are a bit stale as we’ve had some data

since then that has been somewhat stronger,” he said.

Bullard also said that growth of around 2% in the second half of

2012 would be strong enough for the Fed to keep its monetary policy

stance on hold.

“If we were to resume, which I think we will, you know 2% growth,

maybe a bit stronger than that in the second half of this year,

unemployment ticks down through the rest of the year, that’s not a great

outcome but to me it’s a good enough outcome to keep us on hold,” he

said.

Bullard also said that although the Fed has said it will keep rates

on hold until 2015, he thinks they will have to be raised in late 2013.

“I have an earlier date (for raising rates), I’m late 2013,” he

said.

Turning to discuss the US fiscal situation, Bullard said that he

thinks the lack of a fiscal deal was adversely effecting the US economy,

adding that he was concerned that the Fed’s actions were facilitating a

buildup in US government debt.

“I do worry that we are facilitating a debt buildup in the US,” he

said.

He also signalled his concerns on the euro zone crisis, saying he

had become pessimistic on the zone’s capacity to deal with the

situation.

The Fed official described the crisis as “not good, still a

wildcard” but added that the current effects of the European crisis

on the US economy were relatively minor.

“The direct effects from the European recession, they are there,

they are tangible but they’re relatively minor compared to a financial

meltdown-type effect,” he said.

Bullard also said that he thought that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben

Bernanke has not yet made a decision as to whether or not to back

further policy easing at the next FOMC meeting.

“The chairman hasn’t made a decision on that yet – and he’s

probably holding his cards close to his chest so he can get all the data

in before he has to make a decision before the September meeting,” he

said.

Bullard also said that he thought the probability of the Fed

launching another round of QE was lower than markets were currently

pricing in.

“I think it’s not as high as markets have had it during the

summer,” he said.

Bullard also said that he was concerned that a further round of

quantitative easing would complicate the Fed’s exit strategy when the

time comes to tighten monetary policy.

“It would complicate the exit strategy, it would make it more

difficult when the time comes. Frankly, I think our Operation Twist is

also complicating the exit strategy,” he said.

Of course, I expect little else from LT other than posting rubbish and hitting the report button. He's so above all the rest that oxygen is lean where his head is.

[manarak]

I went long in gold, financing the position by shorting CHF against USD to pay minimum interest, so in fact I hold XAUCHF.

what if the peg breaks Manarak? will you have time enough to bail out?

Then it's me who will be f*cked.

But I think the CHF is very unlikely to break its peg, at least at this point in time.

A central bank is omnipotent when it comes to destroy its own currency, so I think the Schweizerische Nationalbank will at least battle before throwing the towel, and the press will certainly report if such a battle takes place. This will be the first warning that the peg is in danger. Didn't happen yet though.

On the other hand, the best case for the CHF would be to be "as good as gold", in which case I should come out more or less flat, not losing more than 20 or 30k.

So I sleep quiet.

Edited August 24, 2012 by manarak

[Naam]

But I think the CHF is very unlikely to break its peg, at least at this point in time.

A central bank is omnipotent when it comes to destroy its own currency, so I think the Schweizerische Nationalbank will at least battle before throwing the towel, and the press will certainly report if such a battle takes place.

i agree and the general consensus is that the SNB has to intervene less and less to keep the peg. sometimes words can be as strong as actions.

[mania]

Perhaps a useful site for folks looking

to gather stats on miners

Silver, Gold, Copper, Tech Metals, Base Metals etc.

You may set the list to generate various commodities reports by country etc.

http://www.miningfee...g-report-canada

Edited August 28, 2012 by mania

[yoshiwara]

Always amusing to read contributors get excited about gold going up, when it is the exactly same guys dismissing the price when it is going down and not only that telling all and sundry that not only is the gold price manipulated, but is also fake because not based on real gold and hey everybody should buy coins la-de-dah.

And now they want us to take them seriously?

[yoshiwara]

A lot of money has been lost shorting the euro, however I would make an informed guess that the pips spread on CHFUSD is rather wider than on the EURUSD trade, so what's the point?

[BKKBobby]

^{Metal commodities goes up 10-12 years then down 20 years, in cycles. Gold is going down, maybe not today, or tomorrow. Im talking about longer trends, 10, 20 year cycles. Yes I believe in technicals, TA. I dont care about university mumbo jumbo that says its impossible.}

[PCA]

A lot of money has been lost shorting the euro, however I would make an informed guess that the pips spread on CHFUSD is rather wider than on the EURUSD trade, so what's the point?

Can you tell what you mean with the statement a lot of money has been lost shorting the EUR and it's connection with the CHF spread or maybe Gold?

[PCA]

^{Metal commodities goes up 10-12 years then down 20 years, in cycles. Gold is going down, maybe not today, or tomorrow. Im talking about longer trends, 10, 20 year cycles. Yes I believe in technicals, TA. I dont care about university mumbo jumbo that says its impossible.}

pssst, not so loud.

[Jayman]

http://www.ft.com/in...144feabdc0.html

Time for eurozone to reach for the gold reserves?

By Gillian Tett

Is it time for some eurozone governments to start selling that metaphorical family silver? Or, more specifically look at their all-too-real gold reserves, to find a solution to Europe’s crisis?

That is a question which has recently been buzzing around in some policy making and investing circles. For as autumn looms, it is clear that the eurozone remains under profound stress. However, it is also unclear whether the European Central Bank – let alone the eurozone politicians – will really be able to do anything soon to ease market fears and lower those borrowing costs.

Thus, as unease builds, the World Gold Council – or the body that represents the gold industry – has recently lobbed a new idea into the fray: it thinks it is time for eurozone governments to start using gold in a creative manner, particularly in places such as Italy, to cut those interest rates.

The issue at stake revolves around the estimated 10,000 tonnes of gold reserves that are currently held by eurozone governments. According to the Council, “it is well known that some of the countries most affected by the crisis, including Portugal and Italy, are responsible for a significant proportion of these assets.”

Unsurprisingly, this situation has prompted some to suggest that governments should sell some of that gold. The value of gold has soared in the last few years, and if there were ever a time that eurozone countries needed an unexpected windfall – say, to pay interest on bonds – it would be now.

of course it's from the financial times which I know is a hit with the more geriatric TVF community.

Edited August 31, 2012 by Jayman

[Naam]

not a bad idea selling some Eurozone Gold. for sure it would help financing airconditioners in the debt laden Mediterranean countries where its quite hot in summers. it would be much easier on their budgets and enable the workforce to cut down on siesta hours and increase working hours and productivity instead of begging in Berlin for alms.

[churchill]

not a bad idea selling some Eurozone Gold. for sure it would help financing airconditioners in the debt laden Mediterranean countries where its quite hot in summers. it would be much easier on their budgets and enable the workforce to cut down on siesta hours and increase working hours and productivity instead of begging in Berlin for alms.

old story and already rejected and poo pooed by Naam ...

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/blog/2011/nov/18/gold-backed-bonds-solve-eurozone-crisis