Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[Naam]

So who's waiting for a deep dip to buy (1600 odd) and who's thinking to just get some in now rather than waiting for effects of another few months of $40billions spewing forth?

actually i will not buy more on dips, no matter how deep, but if/when Gold crosses a threshold (set by me) of 1,950 - 1,980 an ounce before the end of this year i will buy.

needless to say is that Mrs Naam's opinion differs from mine because she is, not always, but most of the time eager to buy physical gold at any price.

[Naam]

Marc Faber changes his opinion as often i change my underwear (three times daily).

must resist urge to comment......

Perhaps some helpful suggestions ...

http://www.dezeen.co...arie-bengtsson/

seems to me like that would only help to keep your smelly clothes from smelling up your closet and the other clothes in it. I personally don't hang up dirty clothes. Guess I need to to read more how germans do things to understand why they would even bother with this.

people without standards keep smelly clothes in closets and assume others do the same. people with standards have maids who clear daily the "dirty laundry basket" and move its contents to the utility room to be processed by washer, dryer and the ironing board.

[cloudhopper]

actually i will not buy more on dips, no matter how deep, but if/when Gold crosses a threshold (set by me) of 1,950 - 1,980 an ounce before the end of this year i will buy.

That's actually a very interesting strategy. If gold drops significantly it will be likely due to a deflationary burst and likely keep going, whereas if the nominal price increases significantly it could indicate widespread loss of confidence in currencies.

[midas]

Analysis - Investors opt for gold ahead of U.S. "fiscal cliff

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/10/05/uk-commodities-gold-idUKBRE8940MT20121005

[Jayman]

So who's waiting for a deep dip to buy (1600 odd) and who's thinking to just get some in now rather than waiting for effects of another few months of $40billions spewing forth?

actually i will not buy more on dips, no matter how deep, but if/when Gold crosses a threshold (set by me) of 1,950 - 1,980 an ounce before the end of this year i will buy.

needless to say is that Mrs Naam's opinion differs from mine because she is, not always, but most of the time eager to buy physical gold at any price.

After reading so many of your posts in this thread I find it quite interesting that your personal strategy is to buy at the top. If this has always been your strategy then that certainly explains why you are so bitter on gold and always comparing the peaks to the valleys since you are the one buying the peaks.

That being said, whatever you have been doing seems to work fine for you since you have made it quite clear how wealthy you are.

Edited October 6, 2012 by Jayman

[cloudhopper]

After reading so many of your posts in this thread I find it quite interesting that your personal strategy is to buy at the top

.

What makes you think that will be the top? Some posters trade gold but others keep it as insurance. If there is a currency crisis then I anticipate selling my gold for a currency not yet in existence. If there is a deflationary burst then IMO gold will deflate less rapidly than any financial asset except physical currency.

[Naam]

actually i will not buy more on dips, no matter how deep, but if/when Gold crosses a threshold (set by me) of 1,950 - 1,980 an ounce before the end of this year i will buy.

That's actually a very interesting strategy. If gold drops significantly it will be likely due to a deflationary burst and likely keep going, whereas if the nominal price increases significantly it could indicate widespread loss of confidence in currencies.

my strategies have always been rather interesting and not at all in line with mainstream strategies or guru recommendations. but during 35 years of investing they were quite successful except for one year in which i incurred huge losses which took several years of hard work to compensate. and when i say huge, i mean huge!

[HannibalLecter]

330 pages of drivel when the answer is up and down

[Jayman]

After reading so many of your posts in this thread I find it quite interesting that your personal strategy is to buy at the top

.

What makes you think that will be the top? Some posters trade gold but others keep it as insurance. If there is a currency crisis then I anticipate selling my gold for a currency not yet in existence. If there is a deflationary burst then IMO gold will deflate less rapidly than any financial asset except physical currency.

Well.. I have no crystal ball do you? I can tell you that price has never hit. So if it does and you buy at it, then it's a top. What happens the days, weeks or months after that is anyone's guess. My point is that I tend to buy weakness and sell strength. If the price is pushing up and closes at new highs, I'm looking to sell not buy. When the price gets soft and shows weakness then I'm looking to buy not sell. Many investors do the exact opposite. When they see a rally they want to get in on it and buy the strength and you can guess who they are buying from. And likewise when the price drops they panic and sell and you can guess who is buying it from them.

Edited October 7, 2012 by Jayman

[Naam]

330 pages of drivel when the answer is up and down

you know the answer?

[cloudhopper]

330 pages of drivel when the answer is up and down

Albeit entertaining drivel.

[mania]

330 pages of drivel when the answer is up and down

Yes of course after 330 pages or years for that matter, that is true.

But, the question or topic is Where Is Gold Going In This Market?

Not Yesterdays market.

Your task would be to say where from today, does it go up or down?

After all anyone who bought when this topic started can say for them overall it has gone up.

If it should drop below the $750 or so of this topics starting date then those folks

could say it went up & down for them.

Edited October 7, 2012 by mania

[HannibalLecter]

330 pages of drivel when the answer is up and down

you know the answer?

Apparently my multilingual gardener does.

[yoshiwara]

After reading so many of your posts in this thread I find it quite interesting that your personal strategy is to buy at the top

.

What makes you think that will be the top? Some posters trade gold but others keep it as insurance. If there is a currency crisis then I anticipate selling my gold for a currency not yet in existence. If there is a deflationary burst then IMO gold will deflate less rapidly than any financial asset except physical currency.

Well.. I have no crystal ball do you? I can tell you that price has never hit. So if it does and you buy at it, then it's a top. What happens the days, weeks or months after that is anyone's guess. My point is that I tend to buy weakness and sell strength. If the price is pushing up and closes at new highs, I'm looking to sell not buy. When the price gets soft and shows weakness then I'm looking to buy not sell. Many investors do the exact opposite. When they see a rally they want to get in on it and buy the strength and you can guess who they are buying from. And likewise when the price drops they panic and sell and you can guess who is buying it from them.

You trade in and out of gold like any other liquid asset do you?

[Jayman]

After reading so many of your posts in this thread I find it quite interesting that your personal strategy is to buy at the top

.

What makes you think that will be the top? Some posters trade gold but others keep it as insurance. If there is a currency crisis then I anticipate selling my gold for a currency not yet in existence. If there is a deflationary burst then IMO gold will deflate less rapidly than any financial asset except physical currency.

Well.. I have no crystal ball do you? I can tell you that price has never hit. So if it does and you buy at it, then it's a top. What happens the days, weeks or months after that is anyone's guess. My point is that I tend to buy weakness and sell strength. If the price is pushing up and closes at new highs, I'm looking to sell not buy. When the price gets soft and shows weakness then I'm looking to buy not sell. Many investors do the exact opposite. When they see a rally they want to get in on it and buy the strength and you can guess who they are buying from. And likewise when the price drops they panic and sell and you can guess who is buying it from them.

You trade in and out of gold like any other liquid asset do you?

Are you suggesting there is a lack of liquidity in the gold market? The paper gold market has tons of liquidity.

[yoshiwara]

Are you suggesting there is a lack of liquidity in the gold market? The paper gold market has tons of liquidity.

No, I was querying whether you traded in and out.

[Jayman]

Are you suggesting there is a lack of liquidity in the gold market? The paper gold market has tons of liquidity.

No, I was querying whether you traded in and out.

I thought I have made that very clear in this thread that I trade paper gold on a daily basis on a leveraged margin account. I enter both long and short positions depending where the price is at. I'm currently more short than long expecting we will see a retest of the lower daily trend line before setting new highs.

[manarak]

Are you suggesting there is a lack of liquidity in the gold market? The paper gold market has tons of liquidity.

No, I was querying whether you traded in and out.

I thought I have made that very clear in this thread that I trade paper gold on a daily basis on a leveraged margin account. I enter both long and short positions depending where the price is at. I'm currently more short than long expecting we will see a retest of the lower daily trend line before setting new highs.

This might work intraday, but for the longer term, I see gold rising high above its current price.

Gold already reached its all time high in EUR and is closing in on its high in JPY.

I don't see how the USD could escape that fate.

[Jayman]

Are you suggesting there is a lack of liquidity in the gold market? The paper gold market has tons of liquidity.

No, I was querying whether you traded in and out.

I thought I have made that very clear in this thread that I trade paper gold on a daily basis on a leveraged margin account. I enter both long and short positions depending where the price is at. I'm currently more short than long expecting we will see a retest of the lower daily trend line before setting new highs.

This might work intraday, but for the longer term, I see gold rising high above its current price.

Gold already reached its all time high in EUR and is closing in on its high in JPY.

I don't see how the USD could escape that fate.

I fully agree and buy physical gold on dibs with no intention to sell them in the short term. I only play this game on the paper side when I get high leverage and can really make the most out of even a $10 price move in gold.

[cloudhopper]

Here's a real time example of a currency crisis. The Rial will never recover from this IMO and a new fiat currency will inevitably replace it.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-09/gold-iran-soars-23-one-week-all-currency-transaction-tracking-disappears

[Jayman]

Here's a real time example of a currency crisis. The Rial will never recover from this IMO and a new fiat currency will inevitably replace it.

http://www.zerohedge...king-disappears

Well they lost like 60% value in a week. That is a classic run on the bank. The stupid bankers there telegraphed the move to prioritize some of the exchange and that signaled everyone to panic... and they did. Fiat only has value based on confidence. Once the confidence is lost, the value quickly goes to nothing.

http://www.theatlant...sk-iran/263159/

That tumble turned into a free fall this past week. The Iranian regime can thank its "foreign exchange centers" for that. As Rick Gladstone of the New York Times points out, the regime recently established special -- read: better -- foreign exchange rates for importers of essentials like food and medicine. It makes sense to prioritize foreign exchange when you're running low on it, but it doesn't make sense to signal that you're prioritizing it. You might as well tell everybody to panic. Well, that's what everybody has done in Iran regardless. Nobody wants to be the last one stuck holding rials -- just like nobody wants to be the last one out the door during a bank run -- so they dump rials for whatever they think will be a better store of value. Which is pretty much anything. But the damage doesn't end there. The faster the currency collapses, the faster inflation picks up. Saving becomes futile. So does pretending you have a real economy.

Edited October 9, 2012 by Jayman

[mania]

Fiat only has value based on confidence. Once the confidence is lost, the value quickly goes to nothing.

True

[yoshiwara]

Fiat only has value based on confidence. Once the confidence is lost, the value quickly goes to nothing.

True

and the price of gold is based on fear.

[Asiantravel]

Fiat only has value based on confidence. Once the confidence is lost, the value quickly goes to nothing.

True

and the price of gold is based on fear.

there's an awful lot to be fearful of the moment

Edited October 9, 2012 by Asiantravel

[mania]

Fiat only has value based on confidence. Once the confidence is lost, the value quickly goes to nothing.

True

and the price of gold is based on fear.

Fear helps yes & has done so for over a decade.

But fear of what?

At the end of the day a commodity is priced on what the market pays.

[mccw]

Fiat only has value based on confidence. Once the confidence is lost, the value quickly goes to nothing.

True

and the price of gold is based on fear.

Depends how you look at it.

Could just as easily say its be "Fear" of fiat collapse / instability and "confidence" in the stability and value of gold.

[Jayman]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-08/imf-sees-alarmingly-high-risk-of-deeper-global-slump.html

Confidence Fragile

“Confidence in the global financial system remains exceptionally fragile,” the IMF said. “Bank lending has remained sluggish across advanced economies” and increased risk aversion has damped capital flows to emerging markets, it said.

[cloudhopper]

Worth a read IMO -

http://guggenheimpartners.com/Perspectives/Media/Return-to-Bretton-Woods

[Naam]

Worth a read IMO -

http://guggenheimpar...o-Bretton-Woods

If the Federal Reserve, for instance, announced that it stood ready to purchase gold at $10,000 per ounce, the gold-coverage ratio of the dollar would return to 75%, roughly where it stood at the beginning of Bretton Woods. This could restore confidence in the value of the dollar if its ultimate role as a reserve currency were to be challenged.

if a bankrupt company announced it stood ready to buy a competitor at 5-6 times its prevailing market value it would not restore confidence but cause roaring laughter

[cloudhopper]

Worth a read IMO -

http://guggenheimpar...o-Bretton-Woods

If the Federal Reserve, for instance, announced that it stood ready to purchase gold at $10,000 per ounce, the gold-coverage ratio of the dollar would return to 75%, roughly where it stood at the beginning of Bretton Woods. This could restore confidence in the value of the dollar if its ultimate role as a reserve currency were to be challenged.

if a bankrupt company announced it stood ready to buy a competitor at 5-6 times its prevailing market value it would not restore confidence but cause roaring laughter

Now now that's hardly a decent analogy doc; if this is the worst thing you could find it must be a pretty good thesis. The author is clearly speaking to the case of a currency crisis already well underway, not suggesting they do it tomorrow. You will have long since backed up the Benz and loaded up.

Edited October 11, 2012 by cloudhopper