Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[cloudhopper]

The fact is there is a world wide currency war going on and has been for some years now. It's a race to the bottom where central banks can't act fast enough to devalue their currency against the others. Thailand just can't keep up with it.

And here, you can quite easily see the effects of Thailand not keeping up with the devaluation process.

Maybe not so headlong. Don't forget about input costs:

Machinery and parts, vehicles, electronic integrated circuits, chemicals, crude oil and fuels, iron and steel are among Thailand's principal imports.

[Naam]

The fact is there is a world wide currency war going on and has been for some years now. It's a race to the bottom where central banks can't act fast enough to devalue their currency against the others.

another fairy tale, based on misperceptions and misinterpretations but nevertheless presented without any evidence.

looking at the currencies of industrialised countries one can't find a single shred of evidence that a "currency war is going on for some years" except in rare cases where central banks act if a currency overshoots a healthy and acceptable exchange rate with the currency of major trading partners (e.g. Switzerland).

[mccw]

Talking of essentials rocketing. I noted on my shopping today 3liters of veg oil up from 4 in the summer to 6.10 today.

Gas/ ellectric just added another 11% on top of the 30% increase of only 3 months ago.

pack of bog roles blooming almost a tenner!

Maybe your all rich enough not to notice but at this rate it's not long till large swaths of population going to be choosing between heat and eat. (In fact many pensioners face this dilemma already apparently).

perhaps you live in the wrong country? in Thailand since many years no increase of electricity rates nor do pensioners face a dilemma as far as heating is concerned. don't know about oil as my cars run on gasoline.

Well that situation isn't going to last much longer. There was an increase in electricity prices about two or three months ago and I heard there will be yet another increase just before Christmas

Upward trend

Gas, oil prices to hike power rates soon

http://www.nationmul...n-30179409.html

the recent and the expected increase of electricity rates are far below Thailand's inflation rate of the last decade. most Thais and Expats would be happy if the latter was not higher than the electricity hikes.

Expats are hit additionally with the appreciation of the Thai Baht vs. their "home/income" currencies. but "choosing between heat and eat" is not applicable in Thailand. in some (very rare cases) it might be choosing between "cooling and eating".

Heat and eat was obviously in relation to my UK examples of why western demand will not maintain Chinese growth and why they may institute purposeful shift to demostic consumption economy through declaring gold legal tender in conjunction with a gold back yuan.

Rationing the air con or not using it at all is just one of the steps middle class Thais take as food prices rise dramatically. Others will move to cheaper rented accommodation and those at the bottom must work more/ harder or go in to relative servatude like the thousands of Burmese who work for free stay and food + a small cash amount of 1 or 2000 bht pm.

The expansion of credit in Thailand for cars and houses can keep the economy and illusion of increased wealth growing for some time to come but the squeeze on everyday expenditure will continue and increase across the world. Their is evidence of it everywhere, daily news pieces on the number of look chin in soup or the price of noodles, cooking oil etc. Chemists, 7-11s and swampy aren't as cold as they were a few years ago. Petrol, egg, meat etc etc all up and rising.

Really you must be delusional to deny what is happening.

Edited October 18, 2012 by mccw

[mccw]

The fact is there is a world wide currency war going on and has been for some years now. It's a race to the bottom where central banks can't act fast enough to devalue their currency against the others.

another fairy tale, based on misperceptions and misinterpretations but nevertheless presented without any evidence.

looking at the currencies of industrialised countries one can't find a single shred of evidence that a "currency war is going on for some years" except in rare cases where central banks act if a currency overshoots a healthy and acceptable exchange rate with the currency of major trading partners (e.g. Switzerland).

British government policy is to "rebalance the economy" to exports for the emerging markets. A more competitive exchange rate is obviously part of that.

A weaker dollar to yuan is just a happy bonus of fed QE is it?

[Jayman]

Delusional is not the word I'd use to describe Naam. But he does seem to only see things from a very narrow view point. He's made it quite clear in every forum he posts in that he is part of the 1% so I'm the first one to admit I don't relate with most of his comments. I will agree that often times it does not represent reality for the rest of us.

[midas]

The fact is there is a world wide currency war going on and has been for some years now. It's a race to the bottom where central banks can't act fast enough to devalue their currency against the others.

another fairy tale, based on misperceptions and misinterpretations but nevertheless presented without any evidence.

looking at the currencies of industrialised countries one can't find a single shred of evidence that a "currency war is going on for some years" except in rare cases where central banks act if a currency overshoots a healthy and acceptable exchange rate with the currency of major trading partners (e.g. Switzerland).

The over 1 million people that purchased this book would probably disagree with you?

Edited October 18, 2012 by midas

[yoshiwara]

The fact is there is a world wide currency war going on and has been for some years now. It's a race to the bottom where central banks can't act fast enough to devalue their currency against the others.

another fairy tale, based on misperceptions and misinterpretations but nevertheless presented without any evidence.

looking at the currencies of industrialised countries one can't find a single shred of evidence that a "currency war is going on for some years" except in rare cases where central banks act if a currency overshoots a healthy and acceptable exchange rate with the currency of major trading partners (e.g. Switzerland).

The over 1 million people that purchased this book would probably disagree with you?

That conclusion cannot be drawn at all.

[yoshiwara]

Delusional is not the word I'd use to describe Naam. But he does seem to only see things from a very narrow view point. He's made it quite clear in every forum he posts in that he is part of the 1% so I'm the first one to admit I don't relate with most of his comments. I will agree that often times it does not represent reality for the rest of us.

You would be a leading light of the 'We Are The 99%' no doubt.

[yoshiwara]

Heat and eat was obviously in relation to my UK examples of why western demand will not maintain Chinese growth and why they may institute purposeful shift to demostic consumption economy through declaring gold legal tender in conjunction with a gold back yuan.

Rationing the air con or not using it at all is just one of the steps middle class Thais take as food prices rise dramatically. Others will move to cheaper rented accommodation and those at the bottom must work more/ harder or go in to relative servatude like the thousands of Burmese who work for free stay and food + a small cash amount of 1 or 2000 bht pm.

The expansion of credit in Thailand for cars and houses can keep the economy and illusion of increased wealth growing for some time to come but the squeeze on everyday expenditure will continue and increase across the world. Their is evidence of it everywhere, daily news pieces on the number of look chin in soup or the price of noodles, cooking oil etc. Chemists, 7-11s and swampy aren't as cold as they were a few years ago. Petrol, egg, meat etc etc all up and rising.

Really you must be delusional to deny what is happening.

Mr May please meet Mr Definitely.

[mccw]

Mr May knows only certain thing is impermanence. Mr definitely went schizophrenic long ago.

Edited October 18, 2012 by mccw

[Naam]

The fact is there is a world wide currency war going on and has been for some years now. It's a race to the bottom where central banks can't act fast enough to devalue their currency against the others.

another fairy tale, based on misperceptions and misinterpretations but nevertheless presented without any evidence.

looking at the currencies of industrialised countries one can't find a single shred of evidence that a "currency war is going on for some years" except in rare cases where central banks act if a currency overshoots a healthy and acceptable exchange rate with the currency of major trading partners (e.g. Switzerland).

The over 1 million people that purchased this book would probably disagree with you?

why don't you submit some examples of currency movements thus providing evidence that a currency war is raging instead of book cover? those who can't put up by presenting facts should shut up instead of spreading rubbish which they read somewhere. presenting facts as far as currencies and their movements are concerned is easier than taking a lollipop from a toddler. dozens of websites provide detailed information.

people buy/read books because they are ignorant and hope to learn from books. if they were not ignorant and possessed already the knowledge presented in the books they wouldn't buy them. those who buy the above-mentioned book have no reason to disagree with me because they can't judge the book and compare its contents with my claim unless they have read it.

by the way... billions of existing flies and billions of fly generations consider(ed) shit to be a delicacy. that does not necessarily mean that other beings too consider shit to be a delicacy.

[Naam]

today dear children we learn how the Chinese will manage to square a circle and construct an infallible currency.

mccw, on 2012-10-18 19:52:00, said:

Heat and eat was obviously in relation to my UK examples of why western demand will not maintain Chinese growth and why they may institute purposeful shift to demostic consumption economy through declaring gold legal tender in conjunction with a gold back yuan.

and the gold needed for backing the Yuan they buy selling U.S. Treasury bills and use the Dollars as well as newly printed Yuan which both do not have any gold backing?

[Naam]

Delusional is not the word I'd use to describe Naam. But he does seem to only see things from a very narrow view point. He's made it quite clear in every forum he posts in that he is part of the 1% so I'm the first one to admit I don't relate with most of his comments. I will agree that often times it does not represent reality for the rest of us.

you too are kindly asked to provide some evidence to back your claim

The fact is there is a world wide currency war going on and has been for some years now. It's a race to the bottom where central banks can't act fast enough to devalue their currency against the others.

p.s. i know some people who are convinced that i am delusional because i don't share their illusions

[Jayman]

I think first we must define "currency war" so we are discussing the same thing by using this term.

Why not use wiki for this http://en.wikipedia....ki/Currency_war

Currency war, also known as competitive devaluation, is a condition in international affairs where countries compete against each other to achieve a relatively low exchange rate for their own currency. As the price to buy a particular currency falls so too does the real price of exports from the country. Imports become more expensive too, so domestic industry, and thus employment, receives a boost in demand both at home and abroad. However, the price increase in imports can harm citizens' purchasing power. The policy can also trigger retaliatory action by other countries which in turn can lead to a general decline in international trade, harming all countries.

Ok.. so we have the definition as countries competing to have a low currency rate. Well,what signs do we have that this is happening. Well, one of the main mechanisms used to effect a countries currency value is through changing the interest rates.

As the interest rates go up, this gives reason to store this currency in the bank as a way to gain safe interest and causes the value of the currency to increase. As the interest rates are dropped, the opposite effect happens and the currency is not favored and the value declines.

So do we have the Central Banks around the world raising or lowering rates? Seems to me that all have been lowered to the point where they can hardly be lowered anymore. In fact, the US is at 0% (0-.25% if you ask ben) and FED has told us they plan to keep them low till 2015 or longer. Japan is at 0% (0-.1% if you ask the BOJ). The list goes on with Central banks lowering interest rates over the past few years.

Then we have the QE. QE is a form of money creation. Now it's nothing new to understand that if you create more of something then the value of the existing supply becomes diluted and it's value decreases. The US FED, BOJ, BOE, ECB have all done multiple rounds of QE is the past few years.

lets go back to wiki... http://en.wikipedia....009â€"2011

The Currency War of 2009–2011 is an episode of Competitive devaluation which became prominent in September 2009. Competitive devaluation involves states competing with each other to achieve a relatively low valuation for their own currency, so as to assist their domestic industry. With the financial crises of 2008 the export sectors of many emerging economies have experienced declining orders, leading several states to start or step up their levels of intervention to push down their currencies.

Both private sector analysts and politicians including Tim Geithner have suggested the phrase currency war overstates the extent of hostility, but the term has been widely used by the media since Brazil's finance ministers Guido Mantega announced that a "currency war" had broken out back in September 2009.

Other commentators including world statesmen such as Manmohan Singh and Guido Mantega have suggested a currency war is indeed underway and that the leading participants are China and the US, though since 2009 many other states have been taking measures to either devalue or at least check the appreciation of their currencies. The US does not acknowledge that it is practicing competitive devaluation and its official policy is to let the dollar float freely. While the US has taken no direct action to devalue its currency, there is close to universal consensus among analysts that its quantitative easing programmes exert downwards pressure on the dollar.

According to many analysts the currency war had largely fizzled out by mid 2011, though others including Mantega disagreed. As of March 2012, outbreaks of rhetoric have still been occurring, with additional measures being adopted by countries like Brazil to control the appreciation of their currency. Yet by June, there were signs that currency misalignment had been levelling out in China and across the world, with even Mantega relaxing some of Brazils anti-appreciation controls.

So are we not in agreement that the past several years have seen competitive devaluation of world currencies? Every mechanism that the central banks have to do so they have been doing. Can this be refuted?

Who else is calling this a currency war? Try Brazil... http://money.cnn.com...rency/index.htm

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Brazil's central bank fired the next shot in what is shaping up to be an international currency war with a sharper-than-expected interest rate cut late Wednesday that pushed down the value of its currency, the real.

It's yet another bullet that Brazil is using to fight the rapid inflation of its currency and jumpstart its sputtering economy, which expanded at a 2.7% rate in 2011 versus 7.5% in 2010.

Brazil's finance minister has repeatedly blamed rate cuts by central banks in the United States, Europe and Japan for unleashing a "monetary tsunami."

The rate cuts and looser monetary policy have devalued the dollar, euro and yen and driven investors to seek yield from Brazil's relatively high interest rates, which now stand at 9.75%. Wednesday's move marked the fifth rate cut by Brazil since August.

http://www.ft.com/cm...144feab49a.html

Brazil launches fresh ‘currency war’ offensive

By Samantha Pearson in São Paulo

Brazil will no longer “play the fool” and let its currency appreciate while richer nations gain eppress gains in the real. On Monday it extended a tax on foreign loans for the second time this monconomic advantage by devaluing theirs, its finance minister Guido Mantega, said this week.

It is almost 18 months since Mr Mantega first coined the term “currency war”, but it appears there is no ceasefire in sight. On the contrary, Brazil has embarked on a new offensive to suth.

Edited October 19, 2012 by Jayman

[midas]

The fact is there is a world wide currency war going on and has been for some years now. It's a race to the bottom where central banks can't act fast enough to devalue their currency against the others.

another fairy tale, based on misperceptions and misinterpretations but nevertheless presented without any evidence.

looking at the currencies of industrialised countries one can't find a single shred of evidence that a "currency war is going on for some years" except in rare cases where central banks act if a currency overshoots a healthy and acceptable exchange rate with the currency of major trading partners (e.g. Switzerland).

The over 1 million people that purchased this book would probably disagree with you?

why don't you submit some examples of currency movements thus providing evidence that a currency war is raging instead of book cover? those who can't put up by presenting facts should shut up instead of spreading rubbish which they read somewhere. presenting facts as far as currencies and their movements are concerned is easier than taking a lollipop from a toddler. dozens of websites provide detailed information.

people buy/read books because they are ignorant and hope to learn from books. if they were not ignorant and possessed already the knowledge presented in the books they wouldn't buy them. those who buy the above-mentioned book have no reason to disagree with me because they can't judge the book and compare its contents with my claim unless they have read it.

by the way... billions of existing flies and billions of fly generations consider(ed) shit to be a delicacy. that does not necessarily mean that other beings too consider shit to be a delicacy.

The examples which you ask for are clearly documented in the book as currency war 1 1921 to 1936 and covers 22 pages, currency war 2 1967 to 1987 and covers in chapter 5 covers 20 pages and currency war 3 2010 to the present.

It's all there clearly documented and very well researched as opposed to the regular and totally unsubstantiated blandishments of Naam

and you do come out with the most preposterous comments because as we are not all superhuman like you because some of us have been working perhaps in different fields we were not born with a natural knowledge of these things so of course we learn from reading them.. But the author has worked in this field all his life and so there is every reason that based on his research and even based on history that there is a far more compelling reason to believe what he says versus what you said.

Don't forget for the first two years of the financial crisis thread you repeatedly made sarcastic comments with the poster ' Abrak ' when he was still around denying the very existence of a financial crisis? So I would hardly put faith in your ability to see what is going on!

Edited October 19, 2012 by midas

[Jayman]

another fairy tale, based on misperceptions and misinterpretations but nevertheless presented without any evidence.

looking at the currencies of industrialised countries one can't find a single shred of evidence that a "currency war is going on for some years" except in rare cases where central banks act if a currency overshoots a healthy and acceptable exchange rate with the currency of major trading partners (e.g. Switzerland).

The over 1 million people that purchased this book would probably disagree with you?

why don't you submit some examples of currency movements thus providing evidence that a currency war is raging instead of book cover? those who can't put up by presenting facts should shut up instead of spreading rubbish which they read somewhere. presenting facts as far as currencies and their movements are concerned is easier than taking a lollipop from a toddler. dozens of websites provide detailed information.

people buy/read books because they are ignorant and hope to learn from books. if they were not ignorant and possessed already the knowledge presented in the books they wouldn't buy them. those who buy the above-mentioned book have no reason to disagree with me because they can't judge the book and compare its contents with my claim unless they have read it.

by the way... billions of existing flies and billions of fly generations consider(ed) shit to be a delicacy. that does not necessarily mean that other beings too consider shit to be a delicacy.

The examples which you ask for are clearly documented in the book as currency war 1 1921 to 1936 and covers 22 pages, currency war 2 1967 to 1987 and covers in chapter 5 covers 20 pages and currency war 3 2010 to the present.

It's all there clearly documented and very well researched as opposed to the regular and totally unsubstantiated blandishments of Naam

and you do come out with the most preposterous comments because as we are not all superhuman like you because some of us have been working perhaps in different fields we were not born with a natural knowledge of these things so of course we learn from reading them.. But the author has worked in this field all his life and so there is every reason that based on his research and even based on history that there is a far more compelling reason to believe what he says versus what you said.

Don't forget for the first two years of the financial crisis thread you repeatedly made sarcastic comments with the poster ' Abrak ' when he was still around denying the very existence of a financial crisis? So I would hardly put faith in your ability to see what is going on!

I think Mr Naam already told you what he thinks of that book. It's shit and those that read it are flies drawn to shit. And we all know that Mr Naam is no fly.

Also, as he puts it.."people buy/read books because they are ignorant and hope to learn from books. if they were not ignorant and possessed already the knowledge presented in the books they wouldn't buy them. " are you suggesting that Mr Naam is ignorant and needs to read a book?

Wow.. that quote would make a great signature here on TVF...

Gives me a great idea for a t-shirt slogan.. "if you are reading this you must be ignorant"

Edited October 19, 2012 by Jayman

[Naam]

we have yada wiki yakety-yak and no facts. provide facts by listing some (only a few!) major currencies which by means of "currency war(s)" depreciated vs. some other major currencies.

definition of a "major currency" = the currency of an industrialised nation with a nominal GDP exceeding $500 billions including nations which are still considered "emerging".

[Naam]

I think Mr Naam already told you what he thinks of that book. It's shit and those that read it are flies drawn to shit. And we all know that Mr Naam is no fly.

Also, as he puts it.."people buy/read books because they are ignorant and hope to learn from books. if they were not ignorant and possessed already the knowledge presented in the books they wouldn't buy them. " are you suggesting that Mr Naam is ignorant and needs to read a book?

Wow.. that quote would make a great signature here on TVF...

Gives me a great idea for a t-shirt slogan.. "if you are reading this you must be ignorant"

misquoting, misinterpreting, stupid assumptions = shot in own foot

[Jayman]

why don't you submit some examples of currency movements thus providing evidence that a currency war is raging instead of book cover? those who can't put up by presenting facts should shut up instead of spreading rubbish which they read somewhere. presenting facts as far as currencies and their movements are concerned is easier than taking a lollipop from a toddler. dozens of websites provide detailed information.

people buy/read books because they are ignorant and hope to learn from books. if they were not ignorant and possessed already the knowledge presented in the books they wouldn't buy them. those who buy the above-mentioned book have no reason to disagree with me because they can't judge the book and compare its contents with my claim unless they have read it.

by the way... billions of existing flies and billions of fly generations consider(ed) shit to be a delicacy. that does not necessarily mean that other beings too consider shit to be a delicacy.

Is your words or are you misrepresenting yourself here?

[Naam]

i will repeat this question till i get an answer:

why don't you submit some examples of currency movements thus providing evidence that a currency war is raging instead of book cover? those who can't put up by presenting facts should shut up instead of spreading rubbish which they read somewhere. presenting facts as far as currencies and their movements are concerned is easier than taking a lollipop from a toddler. dozens of websites provide detailed information.

[Jayman]

i will repeat this question till i get an answer:

why don't you submit some examples of currency movements thus providing evidence that a currency war is raging instead of book cover? those who can't put up by presenting facts should shut up instead of spreading rubbish which they read somewhere. presenting facts as far as currencies and their movements are concerned is easier than taking a lollipop from a toddler. dozens of websites provide detailed information.

I will give you the benefit of the doubt that you are not ignorant so I won't go writing anything that you must then read to show ignorance...

The arguments have been made. You are failing to respond cause you know you are wrong. period.

Are you hoping that by re asking your question that maybe you'll get an answer you like? Sounds like my 5 year old's tactic.

Edited October 19, 2012 by Jayman

[Naam]

yada yada arguments were presented, the facts are missing. where are the facts?

[yoshiwara]

Well there's one thing we have learned for sure this last 12 months which is that as the dollar printing presses have supposedly rolled the price of gold has gone up, 'er down.

[Jayman]

yada yada arguments were presented, the facts are missing. where are the facts?

http://www.fxstreet....st-rates-table/

http://www.tradingec...list-by-country

Edited October 19, 2012 by Jayman

[Jayman]

Well there's one thing we have learned for sure this last 12 months which is that as the dollar printing presses have supposedly rolled the price of gold has gone up, 'er down.

yes yes.. gold is down... now you I would label as delusional.

[yoshiwara]

Well there's one thing we have learned for sure this last 12 months which is that as the dollar printing presses have supposedly rolled the price of gold has gone up, 'er down.

yes yes.. gold is down... now you I would label as delusional.

Thank goodness for that.

[mania]

Well there's one thing we have learned for sure this last 12 months which is that as the dollar printing presses have supposedly rolled the price of gold has gone up, 'er down.

You often mention that yet each time you have mentioned it, it has never been true

Wait till it is below the point of 12 months previous before you use it again

Edited October 19, 2012 by mania

[Naam]

yada yada arguments were presented, the facts are missing. where are the facts?

http://www.fxstreet....st-rates-table/

http://www.tradingec...list-by-country

today dear children we learn that interest rate tables are a substitute to demonstrate currency movements caused by "currency wars".

[Jayman]

yada yada arguments were presented, the facts are missing. where are the facts?

http://www.fxstreet....st-rates-table/

http://www.tradingec...list-by-country

today dear children we learn that interest rate tables are a substitute to demonstrate currency movements caused by "currency wars".

OMG.. come on Naam. Interest rates are set by the central banks. They are the mechanism used to influence the value of the currency.

How would you like to use the exchange rate to prove or disprove this? Exchange rates are between a pair of currencies. If both currencies in the pair are being devalued, how will the exchange rate between the 2 show this? I suggest you might need to read a few more books.

Edited October 19, 2012 by Jayman

[yoshiwara]

Well there's one thing we have learned for sure this last 12 months which is that as the dollar printing presses have supposedly rolled the price of gold has gone up, 'er down.

You often mention that yet each time you have mentioned it, it has never been true

Wait till it is below the point of 12 months previous before you use it again

Sorry, was I a few days out? And as for real price as opposed to nominal once one adds any inflation and loss of interest, well......