Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[Jayman]

Well there's one thing we have learned for sure this last 12 months which is that as the dollar printing presses have supposedly rolled the price of gold has gone up, 'er down.

You often mention that yet each time you have mentioned it, it has never been true

Wait till it is below the point of 12 months previous before you use it again

Sorry, was I a few days out? And as for real price as opposed to nominal once one adds any inflation and loss of interest, well......

[mania]

Sorry, was I a few days out? And as for real price as opposed to nominal once one adds any inflation and loss of interest, well......

No problem & I guess you could have said it on August 17th

Ah but then you would need to check what it was on Aug 17th 2011 to make your claim

Ah, tough life you lead but if you want to make spurious claims you will need to do your own legwork to support them.

Toppings such as interest & inflation are again spurious at best & no life raft for your false statements in this case.

Edited October 19, 2012 by mania

[Naam]

OMG.. come on Naam. Interest rates are set by the central banks. They are the mechanism used to influence the value of the currency.

How would you like to use the exchange rate to prove or disprove this? Exchange rates are between a pair of currencies. If both currencies in the pair are being devalued, how will the exchange rate between the 2 show this? I suggest you might need to read a few more books.

that pairs of currencies are traded does warrant the claim "exchange rates are between a pair of currencies". exchange rate movements are much more based on cross trading than on pair trading especially when it concerns "side currencies". but the latter is irrelevant. important is that comparing a single currency with a bunch of other currencies can bloody well prove or disprove a claim like "central banks are warring".

using examples like Brazil's BRL to prove a "currency war" are ridiculous and proves nothing but a total lack of background knowledge. it is only natural that a country with high exports tries to lower its overshooting currency. in this specific case BRL appreciated 100% during the last decade with peaks of 150% appreciation.

CB manipulation by interest rates? look at Japan and JP¥. rates since years virtually zero, periodically even negative. where's the "war" beef in the results below?

result: 5Y USDJP¥ -46% / 5Y EURJP¥ -63% / 5Y GBPJP¥ -50%

[Jayman]

OMG.. come on Naam. Interest rates are set by the central banks. They are the mechanism used to influence the value of the currency.

How would you like to use the exchange rate to prove or disprove this? Exchange rates are between a pair of currencies. If both currencies in the pair are being devalued, how will the exchange rate between the 2 show this? I suggest you might need to read a few more books.

that pairs of currencies are traded does warrant the claim "exchange rates are between a pair of currencies". exchange rate movements are much more based on cross trading than on pair trading especially when it concerns "side currencies". but the latter is irrelevant. important is that comparing a single currency with a bunch of other currencies can bloody well prove or disprove a claim like "central banks are warring".

using examples like Brazil's BRL to prove a "currency war" are ridiculous and proves nothing but a total lack of background knowledge. it is only natural that a country with high exports tries to lower its overshooting currency. in this specific case BRL appreciated 100% during the last decade with peaks of 150% appreciation.

CB manipulation by interest rates? look at Japan and JP¥. rates since years virtually zero, periodically even negative. where's the "war" beef in the results below?

result: 5Y USDJP¥ -46% / 5Y EURJP¥ -63% / 5Y GBPJP¥ -50%

No doubt the JPY is over valued. So, I guess we can say that Japan is not winning this battle. They are already at round 8 of QE, their interest rates are 0 and yet still they can't get the value of their currency down. So how does this prove/disprove a currency war is going on?

http://www.bloomberg...us-economy.html

IMF Says Yen Is Overvalued and BOJ Should Add Stimulus: Economy

http://www.fxstreet....ene/2012/06/15/

Will the BOJ have to step in again and "intervene" to force the value of their currency down? My guess is they will.

http://www.fxstreet....ary/2012/08/03/

What measures have already the Japanese government and the BOJ implemented to weaken the Yen and what other actions we might see in the future?

They have begun interventions in the currency market, which appear to be designed to prevent strengthening of the Yen. They have also implemented much policy easing more aggressively since last year. These are two policy measures. However, there are also a few others options left such as government policies designed to encourage companies to invest in offshore.

Why the BOJ does not consider imposing a Yen ceiling as the SNB did?

One reason maybe that they are concerned by upsetting their G7 partners, given they are much bigger country than Switzerland. That is something which would require some cooperation from the other major economies. Perhaps, they are not as confident in their ability to maintain that policy as Switzerland is. Japan has different, less aggressive, and less confident policy attitude. That would be the two main reasons.

Did the Swiss National Bank have to do the same? Yes they sure did. Are any of these central banks intervening to inflate the value of their currency? No they are not. They are working over time to devalue.

It's a race to the bottom. And this is being called a "currency war". Maybe not by you.. but by many out there that hold much higher knowledge of economics than you.

http://www.ibtimes.c...calation-795633

The worldwide currency debasement war has now entered a new and more deadly phase. Central banks have escalated the combat plan to bring about the world's weakest currency for their individual countries. On the heels of the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank's promises of unlimited counterfeiting forever, the Bank of Japan announced last week that it would expand its purchase of Japanese Government Bonds (and other assets including equities) by 10 trillion Yen. This brings the latest round of BOJ intervention to a total of 80 trillion Yen!

The sad fact is that the developed world's central banks are in a desperate battle of one-upmanship. The ill-founded goal is to wreck their currency's value in relationship to other fiat currencies in order to boost manufacturing and stimulate economic growth. But once again these central bankers have their economics backwards.

Edited October 19, 2012 by Jayman

[yoshiwara]

Sorry, was I a few days out? And as for real price as opposed to nominal once one adds any inflation and loss of interest, well......

No problem & I guess you could have said it on August 17th

Ah but then you would need to check what it was on Aug 17th 2011 to make your claim

Ah, tough life you lead but if you want to make spurious claims you will need to do your own legwork to support them.

Toppings such as interest & inflation are again spurious at best & no life raft for your false statements in this case.

You must be joking.

Gold has not only been underwater in real terms since the 2011 peak, but in addition the key point holds that in a period when the gold bugs have been permanently screaming about money printing. gold has failed to corroborate what they have been shouting.

Disregard inflation (that's a new one from a gold bug) and interest rates? Silly boy.

Edited October 19, 2012 by yoshiwara

[Naam]

It's a race to the bottom. And this is being called a "currency war". Maybe not by you.. but by many out there that hold much higher knowledge of economics than you.

i give up, you win!

[Jayman]

It's a race to the bottom. And this is being called a "currency war". Maybe not by you.. but by many out there that hold much higher knowledge of economics than you.

i give up, you win!

Glad to see you came to your senses and concede to defeat.

[yoshiwara]

It's a race to the bottom. And this is being called a "currency war". Maybe not by you.. but by many out there that hold much higher knowledge of economics than you.

i give up, you win!

Glad to see you came to your senses and concede to defeat.

Pyrrhic.

Edited October 19, 2012 by yoshiwara

[mania]

Gold has not only been underwater in real terms since the 2011 peak,

Keep backpedaling

Here is what you said,

Well there's one thing we have learned for sure this last 12 months which is that as the dollar printing presses have supposedly rolled the price of gold has gone up, 'er down.

Use all the "real" terms you can muster.

Fact is your mouth is making claims reality does not support,,,again

Hey like I said, keep trying even a broken clock is right twice a day.

Just pick a day that fits your claim next time, or add all your toppings in your original claim if you need the wiggle room.

Edited October 19, 2012 by mania

[yoshiwara]

Gold has not only been underwater in real terms since the 2011 peak,

Keep backpedaling

Here is what you said,

Well there's one thing we have learned for sure this last 12 months which is that as the dollar printing presses have supposedly rolled the price of gold has gone up, 'er down.

Use all the "real" terms you can muster.

Fact is your mouth is making claims reality does not support,,,again

Hey like I said, keep trying even a broken clock is right twice a day.

Just pick a day that fits your claim next time, or add all your toppings in your original claim if you need the wiggle room.

'er no. The original claim stands which is that the price of gold has gone down during a 12 month period against the backdrop of supposedly money printing and according to the gold is a safe haven mantra that isn't supposed to happen. To suggest that the price of an asset should not be measured against either inflation or lost interest is wilful blindness of the first order. You must be the first gold bug who doesn't want to factor in inflation. (Might you that would be actual as opposed to the fantasy forward projection stuff)

Edited October 19, 2012 by yoshiwara

[mccw]

If gold is considered a currency then since the "money printing" began in this "race to the bottom" starting 08 then clearly gold which has been the only one not to have a central bank printing more in to existence while all other currencies have devalued against it, has strengthened. The peak of last year was due to investors going in heavily so like any currency can adjust a bit while waiting to see how world events unfold. To say it's down on a year from peak doesn't mean anything. If talking about currency war then start to present is what matters. Where it goes next is most interesting question and given the reasons it has got to where it is now, only continue and increase in size and magnitude, then my bet is gold will be going up; and since I see no solution or anyone present any solution (including all you naysayers) other than continuing on this broken path then I expect the reasons to feed through to the continuing trend of all currency down and gold up.

[okman]

Never trust anybody who says 'trust me'.

Bank of Bangkok will take your money faster than a piece of bamboo in patong, patpong, or pattaya.

Gold is a vehicle.

Same as the btl's vigo.

You got money in the bank to finance the expenditure? Daily fluctuations in the price of gold are an irrelevance.

[okman]

To the OP Churchill.

I knew a guy who spent his whole life chasing money in the world of high finance.

Mobile phone and a wallet the size of a brick ended up in the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of Gran Canaria.

I've seen the same in Phuket.

German, Scandinavian...someone turns the light on and they lose their head.

Daily fluctuations are important only to the bankers.

[binjalin]

hmmm time to buy back?

[Naam]

It's a race to the bottom. And this is being called a "currency war". Maybe not by you.. but by many out there that hold much higher knowledge of economics than you.

i give up, you win!

Glad to see you came to your senses and concede to defeat.

one should enjoy a beautiful sunset instead of wasting time discussing it with a blind man.

[JSixpack]

After 334 pages I still don't know if I should buy some gold and when.

[midas]

After 334 pages I still don't know if I should buy some gold and when.

And after 334 pages I still don't know how much would it be wise for me to keep in in the form of ' funny money'

[Jayman]

It's a race to the bottom. And this is being called a "currency war". Maybe not by you.. but by many out there that hold much higher knowledge of economics than you.

i give up, you win!

Glad to see you came to your senses and concede to defeat.

one should enjoy a beautiful sunset instead of wasting time discussing it with a blind man.

Oh please mighty sighted one. Impart some more of your naamsense on us.

[Jayman]

After 334 pages I still don't know if I should buy some gold and when.

The right time to buy gold is when you have cash to spare.

[yoshiwara]

After 334 pages I still don't know if I should buy some gold and when.

The right time to buy gold is when you have cash to spare.

....and you will have less of that with the tanking price this week.

[Naam]

what i am missing in this thread are the often heard fanfares accompanied by reports which major central bank has bought again mountains of gold and that there's no other way for gold and precious metals in general than going up, up and up.

its time that i step in

October 10, 2012 (King World News)

With gold still trading near the $1,760 level and silver close to $34, today King World News was given exclusive distribution rights to this rare piece by superstar John Hathaway of Tocqueville Asset Management L.P.. John is without question one of the most respected institutional minds in the world today when it comes to gold and his fund was awarded a coveted 5-star rating by Morningstar.

Gold and precious metals stocks rallied sharply in the third quarter. The rally suggests that the lengthy correction which began in August of 2011 has been completed, setting the stage for a powerful new leg in the bull market for precious metals and related mining shares.

http://kingworldnews..._Pullbacks.html

Today the “London Trader” discussed recent comments on KWN about the possibility of a commercial signal failure, which would have created a major price spike in gold. The source asked, “Why do you think the bullion banks threw everything they had at the gold market at the $1,800 level?” The answer, “We were within a hair of a major price explosion, and disorder in the gold market.”

http://kingworldnews...ds_Advance.html

Greyerz - Silver To Surge 433% From Current Levels

“I’ve been saying gold and silver, due to the fundamental and the technical factors, will go up dramatically, especially into this autumn and next year. So this would have happened anyway, with or without QE. The QE was just a catalyst. It had to happen, and it will continue to happen, whatever the politicians say or do.

So the targets of this move, before we have a major correction, are still $4,000 to $5,000 on gold, and $150 (a surge of 433%) on silver.....

http://kingworldnews...ent_Levels.html

[Jayman]

If you want to quote king world news links then why not this one

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/10/19_Turk_-_One_Of_The_Most_Important_Gold_Charts_Ever.html

[Naam]

i prefer honest charts, not selective cheating ones:

[Jayman]

not sure how your chart showing a down period several decades ago is helpful to today's discussion . But if that seems more "honest" to you than charts showing the past 12 years then by all means....

What your "honest" chart fails to address is why gold had that dramatic run up in the 70's that led to the down period you have outlined with the trendline. In any case.. how did gold end up after that down period when compared to before the run up that you fail to address? Was it higher or lower?

Edited October 20, 2012 by Jayman

[Jayman]

After 334 pages I still don't know if I should buy some gold and when.

The right time to buy gold is when you have cash to spare.

....and you will have less of that with the tanking price this week.

Think you mean to say.. you will have been able to buy more gold with the tanking price this week.

[Naam]

not sure how your chart showing a down period several decades ago is helpful to today's discussion . But if that seems more "honest" to you than charts showing the past 12 years then by all means....

What your "honest" chart fails to address is why gold had that dramatic run up in the 70's that led to the down period you have outlined with the trendline. In any case.. how did gold end up after that down period when compared to before the run up that you fail to address? Was it higher or lower?

i did not "address" anything, i copied posted a chart/graph with a trendline that was not added by me. here's the link:

http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/usgmonth.html

[Jayman]

not sure how your chart showing a down period several decades ago is helpful to today's discussion . But if that seems more "honest" to you than charts showing the past 12 years then by all means....

What your "honest" chart fails to address is why gold had that dramatic run up in the 70's that led to the down period you have outlined with the trendline. In any case.. how did gold end up after that down period when compared to before the run up that you fail to address? Was it higher or lower?

i did not "address" anything, i copied posted a chart/graph with a trendline that was not added by me. here's the link:

http://www.the-priva...t/usgmonth.html

Yes.. My comment was "fail to address".. and as per your admission.. you address nothing... confirming my statement that you "fail to address"

[Jayman]

335 pages of tripe.

are you saying you are not convinced that Gold can go only up, up and UP and only the conspiracies of dark forces have prevented a price of <insert currency amount of your choice> per ounce?

The subject of this thread is "where is gold going in this market". The only ones that keep bringing up this stupid point that "Gold can go only up" are you and your sidekick tweedle dumber.

[Naam]

not sure how your chart showing a down period several decades ago is helpful to today's discussion . But if that seems more "honest" to you than charts showing the past 12 years then by all means....

What your "honest" chart fails to address is why gold had that dramatic run up in the 70's that led to the down period you have outlined with the trendline. In any case.. how did gold end up after that down period when compared to before the run up that you fail to address? Was it higher or lower?

i did not "address" anything, i copied posted a chart/graph with a trendline that was not added by me. here's the link:

http://www.the-priva...t/usgmonth.html

Yes.. My comment was "fail to address".. and as per your admission.. you address nothing... confirming my statement that you "fail to address"

it's weekend! don't get all worked up poor boy

[Jayman]

not sure how your chart showing a down period several decades ago is helpful to today's discussion . But if that seems more "honest" to you than charts showing the past 12 years then by all means....

What your "honest" chart fails to address is why gold had that dramatic run up in the 70's that led to the down period you have outlined with the trendline. In any case.. how did gold end up after that down period when compared to before the run up that you fail to address? Was it higher or lower?

i did not "address" anything, i copied posted a chart/graph with a trendline that was not added by me. here's the link:

http://www.the-priva...t/usgmonth.html

Yes.. My comment was "fail to address".. and as per your admission.. you address nothing... confirming my statement that you "fail to address"

it's weekend! don't get all worked up poor boy

What difference does it make to an old man what day of the week it is? Your service staff off for the weekend?

Edited October 20, 2012 by Jayman