Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[churchill]

Comex Gold Closes UP 6.9% for the Year

http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2012/12/comex-gold-closes-up-69-for-year.html#comment-form

[Naam]

Thailand implements Basel 111

http://www.visetkaew...asel-iii-rules/

Philippines on the way:

http://risk.net/asia...ii-by-start2014

ASEAN + china will probably adopt basel 11 in full and trade / count gold at 100% value without waiting for the basket cases in the west. The Middle East, Russia and South America will follow suite. It doesn't matter what JP or GS say to block the western adoption , it will happen anyway. The doubling or tripling of many central banks gold reserves is well documented- I am sure they will want to count thier reserves at 100% value.

Gold price fluctuates and so do currencies, but gold can't be printed in the billions like dollars , euros, yen, etc, so obviously Central bankers in the creditor nations can see this and will favour gold, where as debtor nations will resist it, but fail, because they want to be able to print thier way out of debt.

Basel 111 and Basel 11 = interesting!

Central Banks implementing any "Basel agreement" on themselves =

[Naam]

mccw please read:

Thailand’s commercial banks will adopt Basel III regulations beginning January 1, 2013, following a directive from the Bank of Thailand (BOT), the country’s central bank. The regulations require banks to increase capital adequacy ratios, implement stress tests and check market liquidity risk.

this is what the three Basel agreements are all about. the Central Banks, being usually the "regulators", are ordering/directing banks within their jurisdiction to follow certain procedures which are irrelevant to themselves. is this really too hard to understand?

[mccw]

Thailand implements Basel 111

http://www.visetkaew...asel-iii-rules/

Philippines on the way:

http://risk.net/asia...ii-by-start2014

ASEAN + china will probably adopt basel 11 in full and trade / count gold at 100% value without waiting for the basket cases in the west. The Middle East, Russia and South America will follow suite. It doesn't matter what JP or GS say to block the western adoption , it will happen anyway. The doubling or tripling of many central banks gold reserves is well documented- I am sure they will want to count thier reserves at 100% value.

Gold price fluctuates and so do currencies, but gold can't be printed in the billions like dollars , euros, yen, etc, so obviously Central bankers in the creditor nations can see this and will favour gold, where as debtor nations will resist it, but fail, because they want to be able to print thier way out of debt.

Basel 111 and Basel 11 = interesting!

Central Banks implementing any "Basel agreement" on themselves =

Typo read 3 for both.

Central banks are implementing unilaterally. Why not? They will recognise each other and since the requirements are harder than 2 they should be recognised as more stable by the ratings agencies etc. What is laughable are those buying bonds as a "safe haven" in a counties that are basicaly insolvent and actively debasing thier currency.

[Naam]

Gold down 12.65% for the period aug 2011-dec 2012

[Naam]

Central banks are implementing unilaterally. Why not? They will recognise each other and since the requirements are harder than 2 they should be recognised as more stable by the ratings agencies etc. What is laughable are those buying bonds as a "safe haven" in a counties that are basicaly insolvent and actively debasing thier currency.

-Central Banks (as of today) did not implement unilaterally any Basel agreement!

-Central Banks do not implement any Basel agreement on themselves!

-Central Banks do not recognise each other!

-Central Banks are not rated by any rating agency!

why don't you do a teenie weenie little bit of homework instead of presenting here...

[mccw]

Did you not read the Thai embassy link?

They are implementing Basel 3 as of Jan first.

Governments/ countries are rated based on economy and reserves held at the central bank. Said governments leand money and do trade deals with each other and asses thier credit worthiness in much the same way. Countries loading up on gold reserves will deal with each other recognising those reserves at 100% value. Similarly China will buy Irans oil with gold valued at 100% , not half price, that would be absurd.

Edited January 1, 2013 by mccw

[Naam]

Governments/ countries are rated based on economy and reserves held at the central bank. Said governments leand money and do trade deals with each other and asses thier credit worthiness in much the same way.

where did you read this rubbish?

[mccw]

Governments/ countries are rated based on economy and reserves held at the central bank. Said governments leand money and do trade deals with each other and asses thier credit worthiness in much the same way.

where did you read this rubbish?

Similarly companies asses the countries also. For example, this is the reason why Greece has problems sourcing its medicines because the companies are now demanding cash up front.

http://bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18343048

Is this another one of your scitzed out days or Are you in a country that couldn't get you your meds?

Sad state of affairs for real.

[Naam]

Governments/ countries are rated based on economy and reserves held at the central bank. Said governments leand money and do trade deals with each other and asses thier credit worthiness in much the same way.

where did you read this rubbish?

Similarly companies asses the countries also. For example, this is the reason why Greece has problems sourcing its medicines because the companies are now demanding cash up front.

http://bbc.co.uk/new...europe-18343048

Is this another one of your scitzed out days or Are you in a country that couldn't get you your meds?

Sad state of affairs for real.

the only sad state of affairs is that you haven't done ever any homework on macro-economics but keep on publishing ridiculous claims such as "ratings are based on reserves held by central banks".

note: ratings are based on the probability of a debtor being able to service his debt. debt is not serviced (except in rare cases) by digging into reserves. debt is serviced by either revenue, by rolling over debt and/or by issuing new debt.

it is high time that you familiarise yourself with macro-econ basics. after that we both laugh heartily when reading some of your former theories and start to conduct serious and meaningful discussions

[mccw]

Governments/ countries are rated based on economy and reserves held at the central bank. Said governments leand money and do trade deals with each other and asses thier credit worthiness in much the same way.

where did you read this rubbish?

Similarly companies asses the countries also. For example, this is the reason why Greece has problems sourcing its medicines because the companies are now demanding cash up front.

http://bbc.co.uk/new...europe-18343048

Is this another one of your scitzed out days or Are you in a country that couldn't get you your meds?

Sad state of affairs for real.

the only sad state of affairs is that you haven't done ever any homework on macro-economics but keep on publishing ridiculous claims such as "ratings are based on reserves held by central banks".

note: ratings are based on the probability of a debtor being able to service his debt. debt is not serviced (except in rare cases) by digging into reserves. debt is serviced by either revenue, by rolling over debt and/or by issuing new debt.

it is high time that you familiarise yourself with macro-econ basics. after that we both laugh heartily when reading some of your former theories and start to conduct serious and meaningful discussions

The assesment of healthy balance sheet of a country takes all those things in to account. I just talking about 1 section of it as that's the specific area of conversation.

So you really think capital reserves play no part in credit worthiness/ risk assessment/ financial stability? What pray tell is the purpose of the siggestedincreased reserve ratios of Basel 3 for then?

[midas]

if gold is not capital or rather, if gold is not money, why would government see any need to moderate such a relatively useless material.( like in India right now )

Answer: fast forward to 18.00

Edited January 2, 2013 by midas

[Naam]

The assesment of healthy balance sheet of a country takes all those things in to account. I just talking about 1 section of it as that's the specific area of conversation.

So you really think capital reserves play no part in credit worthiness/ risk assessment/ financial stability? What pray tell is the purpose of the siggestedincreased reserve ratios of Basel 3 for then?

-for the umpteenth time... any Basel agreement, whether implemented or not, does not apply to a country's central bank.

-usually, but not always, the central banks are the "financial regulators" (overseers, supervisors) of a country's banks.

-the central banks are supposed to order the commercial banks under their jurisdiction to implement the Basel agreements.

summary:

when you are mixing or connecting a country's reserves and/or its credit ratings with any Basel agreement it shows that you either lack or misinterpret the basics. you are also documenting the latter with theories, which might be based on your personal logical thinking, but do not apply.

[kblaze]

mccw i think what he is saying that capital reserves play no part in the credit worthiness/ risk assessment/ financial stability of central banks, which is true. I believe the US held a AAA rating with no capital reserves in the central bank and actually trillions in national debt. But because they were widely believed to be able to service their debt through whatever means necessary, they kept a high rating.

For individual banks, commercial banks, etc, under Central Bank jurisdiction, yes capital reserves do make a difference in credit worthiness / risk assessment / finan stability.

[Naam]

mccw i think what he is saying that capital reserves play no part in the credit worthiness/ risk assessment/ financial stability of central banks, which is true. I believe the US held a AAA rating with no capital reserves in the central bank and actually trillions in national debt. But because they were widely believed to be able to service their debt through whatever means necessary, they kept a high rating.

For individual banks, commercial banks, etc, under Central Bank jurisdiction, yes capital reserves do make a difference in credit worthiness / risk assessment / finan stability.

[mccw]

mccw i think what he is saying that capital reserves play no part in the credit worthiness/ risk assessment/ financial stability of central banks, which is true. I believe the US held a AAA rating with no capital reserves in the central bank and actually trillions in national debt. But because they were widely believed to be able to service their debt through whatever means necessary, they kept a high rating.

For individual banks, commercial banks, etc, under Central Bank jurisdiction, yes capital reserves do make a difference in credit worthiness / risk assessment / finan stability.

I see what your saying but seems credit ratings agencies are changing thier minds now since running massive deficits with low or no reserves is now leading to down grades despite the fact debt could always theoretically be serviced by printing more money. Also; Credit agencies can say what they like but view of the purchasers counts also- now increasingly creditor governments are buying gold rather than bonds and US government is forced to purchase over 50% of it own debt I read last year Or 80% according to the cnbc link in this recent article http://www.goldstockbull.com/articles/government-funded-shell-game-fed-buys-80-debt/

Before the "crises" the % was close to zero.

To be honest I thought the banks regarding of Tier 1 or 2 capital would apply to thier assement of countries CBs, other banks and investors debtors generally. Where as the capital requirements are obviously only for banks, not central banks. So I thought if a country / CB / regulator require the banks under its jurisdiction to implement Basel 111 that means they must have the required capital ratios and recognise gold as tier 1 capital across the board.

I could be wrong but that was my reading of it, although I haven't seen really very much detail in the related articles.

What ever way the point stands that many governments / CBs, banks and individuals are now and increasingly using gold as money/ capital/ reserve and consider it at 100% value rather than 50% no matter what JP Morgan, the fed or Naam have to say about it.

Edited January 3, 2013 by mccw

[MrRealDeal]

Individuals are not using gold as currency except in the conspiricy world of doomsdayer preppers ! Most people don't own any gold and most investment advisors would not reccomend more than 10 percent of assets in gold.

Banks are not aquiring gold as a reserve or investment at some increased pace.

Why ? Because their are better investments than gold for the bulk of ones assets over time.

10 ounces of gold in 1980 would buy you a honda civic ........ 10 ounces of gold in 2012 will buy you a honda civic

The cash for 10 ounces of gold in 1980 would have bought you enough microsoft stock to buy a house and a honda civic in 2012 !

[mccw]

Individuals are not using gold as currency except in the conspiricy world of doomsdayer preppers ! Most people don't own any gold and most investment advisors would not reccomend more than 10 percent of assets in gold.

Banks are not aquiring gold as a reserve or investment at some increased pace.

Why ? Because their are better investments than gold for the bulk of ones assets over time.

10 ounces of gold in 1980 would buy you a honda civic ........ 10 ounces of gold in 2012 will buy you a honda civic

The cash for 10 ounces of gold in 1980 would have bought you enough microsoft stock to buy a house and a honda civic in 2012 !

Did you not notice all the gold shops around Asia? Many people keep thier savings in gold rather than the nations currency wich has come and gone, devalued or crisied many times through living memory. Gold is effectively the reserve currency of choice for the populations of Asia and has been for hundreds of years; as it was in the west until very recently.

""10 ounces of gold in 1980 would buy you a honda civic ........ 10 ounces of gold in 2012 will buy you a honda civic""

- EXACTLY

What would the same amount of Dollars or £s get you?

Investment for income or capital gains is an entirely different issue to what "currency" one chooses to hold ones reserves in. That I or anyone can make more (or loose it all) by investing in other ways is obvious and not disputed.

True- Not many commercial banks are holding gold as reserves right now, but its only a matter of time. Basel 3 will probably usher in this era. Holding a currency not subject to printing and devaluation if counted at 100% value is clearly a good asset to hold over one or in addition to those actively being devalued as a policy.

Central banks buying is well documented; Private bullion demand overtaking jewlary is also.

Edited January 3, 2013 by mccw

[Naam]

True- Not many commercial banks are holding gold as reserves right now, but its only a matter of time. Basel 3 will probably usher in this era. Holding a currency not subject to printing and devaluation if counted at 100% value is clearly a good asset to hold over one or in addition to those actively being devalued as a policy.

"true" is that no commercial bank holds gold as reserves now because that would cause the reserves fluctuating each and every trading day.

"false" is the fairy tale spread by the "World Gold Council " that Basel III ushers commercial banks to hold gold.

[mccw]

A quick google search turn up this on page one:

"Turkey went as far as raising the gold reserve requirements for its commercial banks."

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/10-nations-that-control-the-worlds-gold-2012-10-20

Again with the "fluctuating"; Do Dollars, Yen, Euro etc nor fluctuate also?

The choice to hold gold by banks or individuals as a reserve currency over ones being actively devalued is my opinion for stated reasons, what are you talking about fairy tales for? If you disagree then try to state why with a reason.

Edited January 3, 2013 by mccw

[Naam]

"Turkey went as far as raising the gold reserve requirements for its commercial banks."

= usual journàsslists rubbish.

here's the actual beef:

Central bank allows use of gold in reserves

ISTANBUL, July 4 (Reuters) - For centuries, Turks have flocked to the jewellery shops of Istanbul's labyrinthine Grand Bazaar to trade their gold - ornaments handed down through their families over generations, or bars stashed under mattresses as savings. But in recent months the shops have a new and unexpected competitor: banks.

The country's commercial banks are pouring their technical expertise and marketing resources into offering their customers gold deposit accounts. Customers hand their gold to a bank and can make withdrawals from their accounts in gold bars or the lira currency; the accounts offer interest rates that are substantially lower than those on normal time deposits.

http://in.reuters.co...E8HP9R220120704

the gold in the deposit accounts does not belong to the banks but to their clients, that's why using the expression "reserves" is false.

[Naam]

Again with the "fluctuating"; Do Dollars, Yen, Euro etc nor fluctuate also?

-a Turkish bank's accounting is done in Turkish Lira. the Turkish Lira does not fluctuate in Turkey.

-a German bank's accounting is done in Euro. the Euro does not fluctuate in Germany.

-a British bank's accounting is done in Pound Sterling. the Pound does not fluctuate in UK.

-an American bank's accounting is done in US-Dollars. the Dollar does not fluctuate in the U.S. of A.

[Naam]

Central banks buying is well documented

and that well documented CB buying caused Gold to fall from $1900 to today's $1648/ounce in nearly 1½ years. using that strange logic the price should go up when CBs are selling

[Naam]

Now, I know that the many will read this to this point and say

... what?

[falkan]

Buy: ฿23750

Sell: ฿23850

Last Update: 2013-01-04 15:00

Price Change: -450

stock up some more gold soon ?

Edited January 4, 2013 by falkan

[MrRealDeal]

If the choice was to hold only currency or only gold you would be correct but as far as institutions or people go they don't want currency they dont need to spend they want investments that apprechate over time ..... I really don't see where you are untimatly trying to go but if you think gold is going to be the next currency at 7-11 you are wrong , if you think the amount of gold held by individuals or instiututions is going to change dramaticly you are wrong. Each time their is a gold bubble people buy more like a stock bubble then it subsides ..... same old story played out over and over.

The amount of gold used as currency reserves overall doesnt flucuate as much as you think over a long period of time.

Watch those gold reserves dissapear from individuals in a moments notice when the next bull market comes ..... or watch them cry as the lose out

[mccw]

"Turkey went as far as raising the gold reserve requirements for its commercial banks."

= usual journàsslists rubbish.

here's the actual beef:

Central bank allows use of gold in reserves

ISTANBUL, July 4 (Reuters) - For centuries, Turks have flocked to the jewellery shops of Istanbul's labyrinthine Grand Bazaar to trade their gold - ornaments handed down through their families over generations, or bars stashed under mattresses as savings. But in recent months the shops have a new and unexpected competitor: banks.

The country's commercial banks are pouring their technical expertise and marketing resources into offering their customers gold deposit accounts. Customers hand their gold to a bank and can make withdrawals from their accounts in gold bars or the lira currency; the accounts offer interest rates that are substantially lower than those on normal time deposits.

http://in.reuters.co...E8HP9R220120704

the gold in the deposit accounts does not belong to the banks but to their clients, that's why using the exp<b></b>ression "reserves" is false.

Does the capital to loan ratio not included customers deposits?

[mccw]

The Turkish gold deposit accounts further proves my point about golds use as a reserve/alternative currency.

Many instances of these services coming to many countries.

Edited January 4, 2013 by mccw

[Naam]

The Turkish gold deposit accounts further proves my point about golds use as a reserve/alternative currency.

Many instances of these services coming to many countries.

sure that's why gold is still falling, presently $1637.10

[churchill]

Perhaps we need another thread .. " Is the gold bull dead "

or is it the dump before the jump ..

Gold May Be Down but Bulls Aren't Counting It Out

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-may-down-bulls-arent-170821631.html

It is getting hard to stay bullish in light of the continuing declines ...India , Vietnam trying to dissuade buying .....

but I remember this negativity just under $1000 ...only to sell and regret ..