Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[flying]

hehehe

The front row could be the FED

The guy on the left looks like he is saying ...This is not possible

The second row looks like they are saying...We told you

Edited October 6, 2009 by flying

[Abrak]

Months or years from now, this moment in History has good odds of going down as GOLD's EPIC BULL TURN in a 30-yr period.

Also good odds that the coming bearmarket in Gold will be even swifter than the drop from the 1980 top.

Never known you really get a prediction true CaptainArk but that is because your predictions are so bold.

So gold is going halve over the next month. If you are right I will be impressed - and will certainly give that pitchfork site a visit.

[flying]

My guess was it would rise & now we will see some pullback till late Oct. But from Nov on my guess would be as I said yesterday? Gold will out pace currencies. But we will see & as always anything can happen.

False flag operations have turned things on their ear before.

My dealers tell me buying/selling is evenly split from their perspective. But they also say they will happily buy anything I want to sell + premiums on certain coins.

What I find interesting as the markets are 5 minutes from close is folks running for the door.

But not the exit like I thought may happen but the entry as Gold is now 1042-1043 here with 5 minutes to the bell.

[Abrak]

You have no fundamental reason for thinking this.

In an earlier post he indicated there was a boat that could be missed

Did I miss something ?

Has Bernanke raised interest rates ?

No but I bet he wont lower them

Has a debtor nations currency ever gained value in a deflationary depression ?

Well I would have thought there are a few. I mean Thailand's currency gained in 1998 (I think) and its GDP fell 8%. (At one point it was IMF policy to deflate economies through high interest rates so as to ensure that the currency did not depreciate so they could pay foreign denominated debts.)

Iceland comes to mind....... Will you give me some reasons now that you are in the gold thread ?

[Naam]

My guess was it would rise & now we will see some pullback till late Oct. But from Nov on my guess would be as I said yesterday? Gold will out pace currencies. But we will see & as always anything can happen.

False flag operations have turned things on their ear before.

My dealers tell me buying/selling is evenly split from their perspective. But they also say they will happily buy anything I want to sell + premiums on certain coins.

What I find interesting as the markets are 5 minutes from close is folks running for the door.

But not the exit like I thought may happen but the entry as Gold is now 1042-1043 here with 5 minutes to the bell.

an extremely logical statement from obvious geniuses for every buyer there must be a seller and vice versa. how could it be otherwise?

[Naam]

Anyway, congratulations to the goldbugs, the traders and true believers alike. New all time highs.

Pretty nice move We will see where it goes this year.

Didn't Dr. Naam say he was a buyer when it broke $1030?

no he did not. what he said is that he'll buy when gold reaches €850/ounce (=presently $1,250). dollar prices are irrelevant for Naam.

Naam also challenges LRB's "all time high" statement. inflation adjusted the peak price in jan 1980 represents an all time high and there is a long way to go to beat that high. using a (very) conservative USD inflation rate of 4%, gold has to trade at $ 2,650 to beat that high.

[Naam]

Now at $1,019 and still climbing .... its last breaths, draw everybody in with the glitter, then reverse.

It has been breathing for many a century & will continue as long as there is demand. Yet no paper fiat has survived....

All that aside do you base all your calls on charts, pitch forks etc. ? It seems world events have no bearing on your calls..... chai mai?

He has no fundamental reasoning when it comes to gold, niether does Prechter.

and neither do you except for the age old goldbug claims which rational and pragmatic investors discard as proven not valid. having said so, i would like to mention that i consider the gold forecasts of CapHarmonicArk as lukewarm farts

[flying]

no he did not. what he said is that he'll buy when gold reaches €850/ounce (=presently $1,250). dollar prices are irrelevant for Naam.

for the record: if USD remains at present levels vs. other major currencies (JP¥, €UR, AUD, CAD) and gold crosses $1,100/ounce i will buy that worthless metal which has no intrinsic value at all laugh.gif like a madman.

[lannarebirth]

Anyway, congratulations to the goldbugs, the traders and true believers alike. New all time highs.

Pretty nice move We will see where it goes this year.

Didn't Dr. Naam say he was a buyer when it broke $1030?

no he did not. what he said is that he'll buy when gold reaches €850/ounce (=presently $1,250). dollar prices are irrelevant for Naam.

Naam also challenges LRB's "all time high" statement. inflation adjusted the peak price in jan 1980 represents an all time high and there is a long way to go to beat that high. using a (very) conservative USD inflation rate of 4%, gold has to trade at $ 2,650 to beat that high.

I prefer a constant dollar approach to valuing things myself, but that is not the usual custom. Nobody is taking about "Dow 800" these days.

[flying]

Nobody Naam is taking about "Dow 800" these days.

Also likes the 80's for comparison purposes

[Naam]

no he did not. what he said is that he'll buy when gold reaches €850/ounce (=presently $1,250). dollar prices are irrelevant for Naam.

for the record: if USD remains at present levels vs. other major currencies (JP¥, €UR, AUD, CAD) and gold crosses $1,100/ounce i will buy that worthless metal which has no intrinsic value at all laugh.gif like a madman.

for the record and for those who have problems reading simple sentences : the USD did NOT remain at levels vs. other major currencies prevailing on august 1!

[Naam]

Nobody Naam is taking about "Dow 800" these days.

Also likes the 80's for comparison purposes

extrapolating a price by taking inflation into consideration is not a comparison but an undeniable fact which requires simple mathematics (also known in some areas as "rithmaticks"). let the record show that i hardly ever refer to the DOW. but if i do i normally add that the DOW is a playground for gamblers and not for serious investors. the latter own ricefields and/or bonds and are well aware how inflation affects proceeds.

[Abrak]

but if i do i normally add that the DOW is a playground for gamblers and not for serious investors.

While I am sure you can make a credible case for this statement, I dont think it sits well in a 'gold thread'.

[flying]

Gold continues well but, in hindsight Silver was/is a nice investment albeit a heavy one

In the long run it will probably outperform gold.

Edited October 7, 2009 by flying

[simcity]

Secret oil talks push gold higher

Secret pricing system talks for oil pushes gold higher

LUCY BATTERSBY

October 8, 2009

http://www.theage.com.au/business/secret-p...91007-gn7y.html

[Abrak]

Gold continues well but, in hindsight Silver was/is a nice investment albeit a heavy one

In the long run it will probably outperform gold.

What do you mean by heavy Flying. I mean heavy would maybe imply underperformance (as in burden) but I think it has at least matched gold if not outperformed. (Oh and if you mean weight it is lighter (do I need to put a smiley in there or did I miss yours?).

It just seems to be gold with an economic edge as well as a better supply demand profile if they go up.

Also there is this huge naked short in silver (so they say - no idea whether it is true) and as I see in many ways the price movements in silver are leading gold rather than the other way round. I do realize it is easier to put a price tag on John Terry than either of these two.

[Abrak]

I think that this is a generally sensible gold thread.

But there is something a little depressing about it. If the best investment in the world is a shiny bit of metal that isnt consumed has no real use (except at the margin) and is totally non-productive, the other side of the coin is not great.

1) I mean gold is not a great currency - too volatile

2) Not a great commodity - no consumption or use

3) And not an investment (imho) because it is non-productive (yeah I know you can argue it is productive because it goes up but it doesnt extrapolate.)

To me it simply shows there is no real recovery but a reflation of an asset bubble created by destroying the value of cash. When has gold been great investments - during the depression, during the 70s when productive assets were being inflated away through inflation. Ultimately I believe the fundamentals of gold are crap - it gets produced, it never gets consumed, it has no real purpose. But the people who own it are not stupid, they simply realize that at times, most other assets are crappier.

So to me the people who argue that the world is recovering because markets are up should look at the gold price.

[flying]

Gold continues well but, in hindsight Silver was/is a nice investment albeit a heavy one

In the long run it will probably outperform gold.

What do you mean by heavy Flying. I mean heavy would maybe imply underperformance (as in burden) but I think it has at least matched gold if not outperformed. (Oh and if you mean weight it is lighter (do I need to put a smiley in there or did I miss yours?).

It just seems to be gold with an economic edge as well as a better supply demand profile if they go up.

Also there is this huge naked short in silver (so they say - no idea whether it is true) and as I see in many ways the price movements in silver are leading gold rather than the other way round. I do realize it is easier to put a price tag on John Terry than either of these two.

Yes you missed my smiley & yes weight was literal

Many folks can afford their weight in Silver. As such it is up 45% from less than a year ago. Decent profits in my book & more to follow.

Gold has an edge only because of perception that gold is worth so much more.

But the reality is the profit this year is half of silver.

Also pretty much all the gold ever mined is still available above ground in one form or another. Not true of silver which has many industrial uses & now may even become more useful in medicine.

But yes as you say Silver is also more volatile in the market as it is much smaller

in market share. As for the naked shorting hopefully that will be history soon.

[flying]

Looks like gold is on another good bump tonight in Asian markets

1053/oz which means most buying a single gold coin in Amerika tomorrow

may be paying $1100 each.....

Silver knocking on 18 too

Edited October 8, 2009 by flying

[clinique]

I guess the market is answering the question ! All of us armchair professors can "think" wha t we like but the doers and doing ! And its happening. If it aint happening on Wall St or the City...it aint happening !

Not much changes over time .....

Hope you all bought when you were poo poohing ?

[teletiger]

There are reports that gold contracts opting for physical delivery are being offered premiums for fiat settlement.

Backwardation?

"I want to let you all know that there is a VERY important corollary to my earlier fast blast. I’ve been told that players requesting physical metal in settlement have been offered significant “off-market” fiat premiums if they would settle in fiat rather than physical. The implications here folks are HUGE: it means that gold is ACTUALLY IN BACKWARDATION NOW.

I say this because, Antal Fekete has just come out with a piece saying the gold price break-out is not confirmed because there is no backwardation in the gold price.

His assumptions are false – gold “IS” in backwardation NOW and it’s being hidden from us."

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/gold-move...d-backwardation

[Abrak]

As for the naked shorting hopefully that will be history soon.

What do you mean by that?

1) it doesnt exist. Quite probable - naked shorting 27% of the total supply of a commodity is difficult to achieve let alone unwind.

2) It will be banned by regulation. I would guess unlikely.

3) They arent really naked. Very probable.

Just wondering. I have no clue. Might just be a silverbug story.

[flying]

What do you mean by that?

1) it doesnt exist.

Just wondering. I have no clue. Might just be a silverbug story.

I am not the one to ask maybe LB will post a answer..

It was a topic of big discussion last year during Lehmans collapse & the oil run up.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naked_short_selling

Not a great source...wiki but you get the idea. Where it stands now I do not know.

Then again what is one more source of market manipulation between crooks eh?

http://www.cato.org/pubs/regulation/regv31n1/v31n1-6.pdf

Edited October 8, 2009 by flying

[flying]

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2...rgets-1310.html

Gold : Until the until the banks are retrained and balance is restored

Personally & I have said it before... I am not a chartist or a cyclist. I find both very interesting & like to learn new things. But they have nothing to do with my reasons.

But looking at the US economy & the abuse/fraud...looking at job losses of close to 300,000 per month still.

Looking at the forthcoming lack of tax revenues due to these things. These are the facts I see daily.

The things I logically see & the lack of repair or true growth. The expansion of the USD & no real way to repay it or restore the wealth/value that is being stripped from it. These are the things that I see & if & when I see an alternative or true growth,restoration.repair...Then I may feel differently.

Of course I do not put it past the government to try & false flag an event to help boost them & anything is possible. But for now I see no reason to have my logical faith in the USD

[Abrak]

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2...rgets-1310.html

Gold : Until the until the banks are retrained and balance is restored

Personally & I have said it before... I am not a chartist or a cyclist. I find both very interesting & like to learn new things. But they have nothing to do with my reasons.

But looking at the US economy & the abuse/fraud...looking at job losses of close to 300,000 per month still.

Looking at the forthcoming lack of tax revenues due to these things. These are the facts I see daily.

The things I logically see & the lack of repair or true growth. The expansion of the USD & no real way to repay it or restore the wealth/value that is being stripped from it. These are the things that I see & if & when I see an alternative or true growth,restoration.repair...Then I may feel differently.

Of course I do not put it past the government to try & false flag an event to help boost them & anything is possible. But for now I see no reason to have my logical faith in the USD

Flying,

Fully understand your argument but you know as well as me that others are arguing the recovery in the stockmarket is a sign of an 'extreme recovery' of the economy. So one has to be careful here attributing much in the way of fundamentals to either move.

Incidentally the US dollar itself is not expanding both M2 and M3 are growing at annualized rates of less than 5% (of course if you bring China whose money supply is now bigger than the US it looks different.)

My real point being is that the important issue here is that economic policy is to trash cash and render it increasingly worthless - hence all assets based on that cash will appreciate. It is probably wrong to see the gold price movement in excess of dollar decline as a sign of continued recession as it is the stock price movements as a sign of rapid recovery.

[sokal]

My guess was it would rise & now we will see some pullback till late Oct. But from Nov on my guess would be as I said yesterday? Gold will out pace currencies. But we will see & as always anything can happen.

False flag operations have turned things on their ear before.

My dealers tell me buying/selling is evenly split from their perspective. But they also say they will happily buy anything I want to sell + premiums on certain coins.

What I find interesting as the markets are 5 minutes from close is folks running for the door.

But not the exit like I thought may happen but the entry as Gold is now 1042-1043 here with 5 minutes to the bell.

I wish I had bigger positions but I think there will be a pull back and another time to get in. My plan was and still is to go 70 or 80% metal either January or early spring.

[sokal]

Now at $1,019 and still climbing .... its last breaths, draw everybody in with the glitter, then reverse.

It has been breathing for many a century & will continue as long as there is demand. Yet no paper fiat has survived....

All that aside do you base all your calls on charts, pitch forks etc. ? It seems world events have no bearing on your calls..... chai mai?

He has no fundamental reasoning when it comes to gold, niether does Prechter.

and neither do you except for the age old goldbug claims which rational and pragmatic investors discard as proven not valid. having said so, i would like to mention that i consider the gold forecasts of CapHarmonicArk as lukewarm farts

I have a long list of fundamental macroeconomic reasons why, I am sick of listing them.

Captains response is coming...................so is Santa Clause.

[sokal]

You have no fundamental reason for thinking this.

In an earlier post he indicated there was a boat that could be missed

Did I miss something ?

Has Bernanke raised interest rates ?

No but I bet he wont lower them

Has a debtor nations currency ever gained value in a deflationary depression ?

Well I would have thought there are a few. I mean Thailand's currency gained in 1998 (I think) and its GDP fell 8%. (At one point it was IMF policy to deflate economies through high interest rates so as to ensure that the currency did not depreciate so they could pay foreign denominated debts.)

Iceland comes to mind....... Will you give me some reasons now that you are in the gold thread ?

Just the opposite happend actually.

From 1985 to 1996, the baht was pegged at 25 to the US dollar.

On 14 May and 15 May 1997, the Thai baht was hit by massive speculative attacks. On 30 June 1997, Prime Minister Chavalit Yongchaiyudh said that he would not devalue the baht. This was the spark that ignited the Asian financial crisis as the Thai government failed to defend the baht, which was pegged to the U.S. dollar, against international speculators. Thailand's booming economy came to a halt amid massive layoffs in finance, real estate, and construction that resulted in huge numbers of workers returning to their villages in the countryside and 600,000 foreign workers being sent back to their home countries.^[17] The baht devalued swiftly and lost more than half of its value. The baht reached its lowest point of 56 units to the US dollar in January 1998. The Thai stock market dropped 75%. Finance One, the largest Thai finance company until then, collapsed.[1

[sokal]

Gold continues well but, in hindsight Silver was/is a nice investment albeit a heavy one

In the long run it will probably outperform gold.

What do you mean by heavy Flying. I mean heavy would maybe imply underperformance (as in burden) but I think it has at least matched gold if not outperformed. (Oh and if you mean weight it is lighter (do I need to put a smiley in there or did I miss yours?).

It just seems to be gold with an economic edge as well as a better supply demand profile if they go up.

Also there is this huge naked short in silver (so they say - no idea whether it is true) and as I see in many ways the price movements in silver are leading gold rather than the other way round. I do realize it is easier to put a price tag on John Terry than either of these two.

I would not worry a whole lot about those naked shorts long term. Look how well that IMF 400 ton short worked out for gold. And that was not a naked short.

[sokal]

I think that this is a generally sensible gold thread.

But there is something a little depressing about it. If the best investment in the world is a shiny bit of metal that isnt consumed has no real use (except at the margin) and is totally non-productive, the other side of the coin is not great.

1) I mean gold is not a great currency - too volatile

2) Not a great commodity - no consumption or use

3) And not an investment (imho) because it is non-productive (yeah I know you can argue it is productive because it goes up but it doesnt extrapolate.)

To me it simply shows there is no real recovery but a reflation of an asset bubble created by destroying the value of cash. When has gold been great investments - during the depression, during the 70s when productive assets were being inflated away through inflation. Ultimately I believe the fundamentals of gold are crap - it gets produced, it never gets consumed, it has no real purpose. But the people who own it are not stupid, they simply realize that at times, most other assets are crappier.

So to me the people who argue that the world is recovering because markets are up should look at the gold price.

Another gold bug is born.