Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[flying]

IMF sells 10 tonnes of gold to Sri Lanka

Wonder if India will take the rest? Have been reading they may.....

Also just saw this..........

Dubai debt freeze to push up gold prices

[churchill]

Gold down 50 at 1142

S&P futures off 41 at 1067 as I write -

Is this the start of a $ rally / market crash ?

From Mish http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

[flying]

Gold down 50 at 1142

S&P futures off 41 at 1067 as I write -

Is this the start of a $ rally / market crash ?

From Mish http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

Yes I was just noticing too.

Good call for PCA yesterday

If gold gets down it could be a good chance for those who dont have enough coins to buy.

I also noticed premiums went up 20+% a few days ago.

If you can find them. Eagles & Krugs are gone at many places

If they have eagles premium went from 34 to $60 each now.

Maples & Phils still around.

Edited November 27, 2009 by flying

[Penefattore]

Also just saw this..........

Dubai debt freeze to push up gold prices

Gold down 50 at 1142

S&P futures off 41 at 1067 as I write

LOL !

[JRinger]

Where Is Gold Going In This Market?

it looks like Gold is going nowhere

It looks like it's up about 35%+ since your post/reply !!

[Naam]

Where Is Gold Going In This Market?

it looks like Gold is going nowhere

It looks like it's up about 35%+ since your post/reply !!

that is correct but meanwhile there is a bunch of assets which went up 350% since my post

[churchill]

This seems strange -

From Kitco Forum

Oppenheimer tipped off about gold correction ?

http://www.mffais.com/99286

Check it out. These guys basically sold ALL their mining holdings one week ago and they were in big.

50 miners and they sold each and every stock in them?

Also, they called the top in oil perfectly last year apparantly.

Edited November 29, 2009 by churchill

[Abrak]

[flying]

Looks like both are broken above now.

Interested to see if it holds.

Silver also looking good today.

Edited December 1, 2009 by flying

[flying]

Gold, The Comex and Exchange For Physical

Conclusion: guess you can no longer get bullion via using comex contracts. This apparently is the next step in the evolution of gold trading.

The conclusion we reach for now is that if one is counting on the ability to receive delivery of physical gold from the Comex for whatever purposes, then don't. You will wait and fight and stand in queue to obtain the goods from Enron nation.

Full article at link above

Edited December 1, 2009 by flying

[Abrak]

Has the yen broken out Flying - your chart doesnt go back to the July '08 high.

And a bearish article about silver. Note it has already broken out if it holds. Both PMs look due for a bit of profit taking while acting as though they might go parabolic.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/175997-silver-topping-out

[flying]

Has the yen broken out Flying - your chart doesnt go back to the July '08 high.

And a bearish article about silver. Note it has already broken out if it holds. Both PMs look due for a bit of profit taking while acting as though they might go parabolic.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/175997-silver-topping-out

Sorry for some reason I thought I posted a yen chart that went back 2 years.

This one is not good either....

But shows it is just barely

This is the one I was thinking of & again just barely

Will look at the silver article you posted a link for.

[flying]

And a bearish article about silver. Note it has already broken out if it holds. Both PMs look due for a bit of profit taking while acting as though they might go parabolic.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/175997-silver-topping-out

Went & read that article.....

Funny & I guess I agree with some of it...as in certain indicators like MACD is turning but...

At the same time you have to laugh at the one comment that said something to the effect that

you picked the wrong day to post this article as silver is up 3.5% today alone.

All that aside I read a article a year ago that I thought was good.

http://the-moneychanger.com/articles_files..._outperform.php

Also at the end of the day my reasons for metals has always been perhaps different than the average investor.

Those reasons have shown me no sign of slowing.

Edited December 2, 2009 by flying

[sokal]

Where Is Gold Going In This Market?

it looks like Gold is going nowhere

It looks like it's up about 35%+ since your post/reply !!

that is correct but meanwhile there is a bunch of assets which went up 350% since my post

I got some gold stocks up 1200%

[sokal]

Gold, The Comex and Exchange For Physical

Conclusion: guess you can no longer get bullion via using comex contracts. This apparently is the next step in the evolution of gold trading.

The conclusion we reach for now is that if one is counting on the ability to receive delivery of physical gold from the Comex for whatever purposes, then don't. You will wait and fight and stand in queue to obtain the goods from Enron nation.

Full article at link above

There will be no waiting and fighting. The COMEX and the GLD will default, then the black market is the market.

[Naam]

Where Is Gold Going In This Market?

it looks like Gold is going nowhere

It looks like it's up about 35%+ since your post/reply !!

that is correct but meanwhile there is a bunch of assets which went up 350% since my post

I got some gold stocks up 1200%

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/25m-Baht-Inv...58#entry3096258

[flying]

Looks like Zobama's stupidity regarding Afghanistan is gold positive

[gregb]

There will be no waiting and fighting. The COMEX and the GLD will default, then the black market is the market.

I think the idea behind the article is that you will never see a big bang like a default. COMEX will go out with a whimper as taking physical delivery simply becomes progressively more difficult. They will never actually default. They'll always keep 1 bar in their vault. There might be 500 people trying to get them to deliver that single bar, but they'll just stall until people are forced to walk away with paper. COMEX now presents a significant counter party risk.

I am very curious to see what the Thai market, which is nearly all physical trading among bullion dealers, does when the market bifurcates and the COMEX spot price becomes meaningless. What will they track then? If they try and stick with COMEX, the metal will be quickly removed to private hands where it will never again see the light of day. Will the Gold Traders Association add premiums then, or will they institute rationing and exchange controls?

I always expected a big event when a COMEX default occurs. I am always impressed at how the market seems to slither out from under every rock. Weakened and diseased for sure, but still managing to allow the corrupt to keep playing their games.

The future is nothing if not surprising.

[Abrak]

There will be no waiting and fighting. The COMEX and the GLD will default, then the black market is the market.

If there is a default at Comex it is likely that Silver will lead the way.

As is generally well known JP Morgan and Goldman's have something like 60% minimum of all outstanding shorts. These are sometimes described as 'naked shorts' but as you can imagine they are not. JP Morgan acquired this short position from Bear Stearns acquisition. Bear Stearns was supposedly very active in the silver market and noticed that China was hedging or selling forward its reserves. Amongst all the wheeling and dealing that was going with China they agreed to buy a substantial portion/all of their silver reserves. Now two investment houses arent going to take a huge punt long of a commodity, so they bought at a future price (say 10% discount to spot in 6 months). Then they starting hedging by selling futures.

Obviously they shorted to risk their net exposure and presumably on the basis that while shorting futures has a buyer, a big increase in supply would depress the price. So there is no naked short but China has not yet delivered the silver and I believe basically they claim the 'official' had no right to sell (yeah I know this is a conspiracy theory).

This became a sticking point at the Bear Stearns sale because the position was so uncertain. If China delivers they are hedged or net long enough that their selling is hedged. If it doesnt they have a nightmare. Well not a nightmare by todays standards but maybe US$1bn losses. Supposedly JP Morgan passed on much of the risk to the US in the deal.

So here we are year or two later.

http://news.silverseek.com/TedButler/1252075929.php

And these stories start appearing....

As I say it is obviously a bit of a conspiracy theory but if you think about it is not a bad one. The fact is that everyone 'knows' of this massive short. So on that basis there really is just two alternative conspiracy theories.

1. Bear Stearns and Goldman's have huge naked shorts in Silver - which would imply they are incredibly dumb. I mean they are very large compared to the size of the market and it is not really justified to go that massively short on anything whose value is unknown.

2. It is not naked at all (imho far more likely) but a hedge against future delivery

Supposedly there is an additional spice which in that the China sale wasnt really fraudulent but it just turned out they didnt have the reserves they thought they had.

I dont really believe in conspiracy theories but the good one here is the 'naked short' to me is as much a conspiracy theory as the fact it is a hedge against a position that hasnt been honored. I cant really see China defaulting but if it did especially on the basis of selling reserves held by others that werent there, presumably it would create turmoil.

Edited December 2, 2009 by Abrak

[churchill]

Not sure if this has been posted elsewhere -

from http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article15412.html

"The following information may be the most important we have ever published. One of our Intel sources, highly placed in banking circles, tells us that on 1/1/10 all banks that have received TARP funds have been informed by the Federal Reserve that they must further restrict any commercial lending. Loans have to be 75% collateralized, 50% of which has to be in cash, which is a compensating balance"

"The Fed has to do one of two things: They either have to pull $1.5 trillion out of the system by June, which would collapse the economy, or face hyperinflation. This is why the Fed has instructed banks to inform them when and how much of the TARP funds they can return. At best they can expect $300 to $400 billion plus the $200 billion the Fed already has in hand.

We believe the Fed will opt for letting the system run into hyperinflation. All signs tell us they cannot risk allowing the undertow of deflation to take over the economy. The system cannot stand such a withdrawal of funds. They also must depend on assistance from Congress in supplying a second stimulus plan. That would probably be $400 to $800 billion. A lack of such funding would send the economy and the stock market into a tailspin. Even with such funding the economy cannot expect any growth to speak of and at best a sideways movement for perhaps a year.

We have been told that the FDIC not only is $8.2 billion in the hole, but they have secretly borrowed an additional $80 billion from the Treasury. We have also been told that the FDIC is lying about the banks in trouble. The number in eminent danger are not 552, but a massive 2,035. The cost of bailing these banks out would be $800 billion to $1 trillion. That means 2,500 could be closed in 2010. Now get this, the FDIC is going to be collapsed before the end of 2010, which means no more deposit insurance. This follows the 9/18/09 end of government guarantees on money market funds. Both will force deposits into US government bonds and agency bonds in an attempt to save the system.

This will strip small and medium-sized banks and force them into shutting down or being absorbed. This means you have to get your money out of banks, especially CDs. We repeat get your cash values out of life insurance policies and annuities. They are invested 80% in stocks and 20% in bonds. Keep only enough money in banks for three months of operating expenses, six months for businesses.

Major and semi-major banks are being told to obtain secure storage for new currency-dollars. They expect official devaluation by the end of the year.

We do not know what the exchange rate will be, but as we have stated previously we expect three old dollars to be traded for one new dollar. The alternative is gold and silver coins and shares. For those with substantial sums that do not want to be in gold and silver related assets completely you can use Canadian and Swiss Treasuries. If you need brokers for these investments we can supply them.

The Fed also expects a meltdown in the bond market, especially in municipals. Public services will be cut drastically leading to increased crime and social problems, not to mention the psychological trauma that our country will experience. Already 50% of homes in hard hit urban areas are under water, nationwide more than 25%. That means you have to be out of bonds as well, especially municipals. "

[Abrak]

I am very curious to see what the Thai market, which is nearly all physical trading among bullion dealers, does when the market bifurcates and the COMEX spot price becomes meaningless. What will they track then? If they try and stick with COMEX, the metal will be quickly removed to private hands where it will never again see the light of day. Will the Gold Traders Association add premiums then, or will they institute rationing and exchange controls?

The Thai gold market is incredibly sophisticated, they would certainly take advantage of exchange controls. Whenever exchange controls have been in place the gold market has been the main arbitragers. You can transfer US$ offshore to someone and receive baht them or give them baht and receive money offshore at competitive rates and in good size (at least US$25m). A combination of exchange controls and money laundering is perfect.

So dont worry too much about Comex, Thai traders will simply arrange their own market.

[Naam]

Looks like Zobama's stupidity regarding Afghanistan is gold positive

strange! i had the same thought especially as neither the dollar's exchange rate nor the markets provided any reasons. "i determined... national interest" = my ass

[Naam]

"This will strip small and medium-sized banks and force them into shutting down or being absorbed. This means you have to get your money out of banks, especially CDs. We repeat get your cash values out of life insurance policies and annuities. They are invested 80% in stocks and 20% in bonds. Keep only enough money in banks for three months of operating expenses, six months for businesses.

Major and semi-major banks are being told to obtain secure storage for new currency-dollars. They expect official devaluation by the end of the year.

We do not know what the exchange rate will be, but as we have stated previously we expect three old dollars to be traded for one new dollar. The alternative is gold and silver coins and shares. For those with substantial sums that do not want to be in gold and silver related assets completely you can use Canadian and Swiss Treasuries. If you need brokers for these investments we can supply them."

and please wear your tin foil hats even at bed time and during sex. the sky may fall any time.

[AlexLah]

Have you start buying more Gold already Herr Naam? Besides that, how is your veggie garden doing?

Strawberry plants will do great at this time of year and with a bit of luck you could find yourself on the sofa by the pool feeding the other half your home grown strawberries dipped in whipped cream whilst wearing white robes and watching the price of Gold sky rocketing by the minute once phase 5 is started.

The 4 th will be released soon.......

I said ( In May) it would reach 1000 USD within a few months.

And I posted another one as where it would go a while after, (Up, if you can read the model) somewhere in this thread if I remember well.

Also in predictions 2007 I said Gold price to be THB 13000 by year end and was spot on, the other was 20.000 by year end 2008 but obviously I was a year off.

Ha ha ha!

Have a good day all,

Keep buying Gold!

.

[flying]

We do not know what the exchange rate will be, but as we have stated previously we expect three old dollars to be traded for one new dollar.

Better than the North Koreans got..........

North Korea revalues currency, destroying personal savings

By Blaine Harden

Wednesday, December 2, 2009

TOKYO -- Chaos reportedly erupted in North Korea on Tuesday after the government of Kim Jong Il revalued the country's currency, sharply restricting the amount of old bills that could be traded for new and wiping out personal savings.

The revaluation and exchange limits triggered panic and anger, particularly among market traders with substantial hoards of old North Korean won -- much of which has apparently become worthless, according to news agency reports from South Korea and China and from groups with contacts in North Korea.

The currency move appeared to be part of a continuing government crackdown on private markets, which have become an essential part of the food-supply system in the chronically hungry North.

In recent years, some market traders have stashed away substantial amounts of cash, while establishing themselves in profitable businesses that the government struggles to control.

But under the rules of the new currency system, the wealth of these traders has largely disappeared, unless it is held in euros, dollars or Chinese yuan.

The revaluation replaces 1,000-won notes with 10-won notes but strictly limits the amount of old currency that can be exchanged, news reports said.

Full article at link above

[Lost in LOS]

up 40+ % on physical gold to date. Its a pain to keep but its not paper [like the dollar]. I just am getting uncomfortable leaving it in the US as things appear to be falling apart rather quickly with no solutions by the government. I would say in a year gold will be hitting 2000 [yep, just a guess like my last one], if not for any other reason maybe a feeling [false?] of some security. we shall see

[sokal]

There will be no waiting and fighting. The COMEX and the GLD will default, then the black market is the market.

I think the idea behind the article is that you will never see a big bang like a default. COMEX will go out with a whimper as taking physical delivery simply becomes progressively more difficult. They will never actually default. They'll always keep 1 bar in their vault. There might be 500 people trying to get them to deliver that single bar, but they'll just stall until people are forced to walk away with paper. COMEX now presents a significant counter party risk.

I am very curious to see what the Thai market, which is nearly all physical trading among bullion dealers, does when the market bifurcates and the COMEX spot price becomes meaningless. What will they track then? If they try and stick with COMEX, the metal will be quickly removed to private hands where it will never again see the light of day. Will the Gold Traders Association add premiums then, or will they institute rationing and exchange controls?

I always expected a big event when a COMEX default occurs. I am always impressed at how the market seems to slither out from under every rock. Weakened and diseased for sure, but still managing to allow the corrupt to keep playing their games.

The future is nothing if not surprising.

I heard in 2008 that some royalty company in Toronto was going to crash the COMEX but they chickened out. Max Keiser was talking about it too at the time.

[flying]

Anyone notice the premiums jumping?

Gold had a dip but the premiums for coins head up.........

Eagles $110/oz

Maples $70/oz

Phils...none to be had

Krugs ...none to be had

Plain gold bars Swiss Pamp etc.... Not bad at $36/oz

[Naam]

Anyone notice the premiums jumping? Gold had a dip but the premiums for coins head up.........

only poor people and those who are interested in bakeries buy coins

[Naam]

Plain gold bars Swiss Pamp etc.... Not bad at $36/oz

plain gold bars at $36 an ounce