Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[Naam]

For the tech minded ...

gold-is-in-classic-cup-and-handle

and where is the saucer?

[badge]

Gold here is odd.

Lately XAUs typical dynamic of being little more than another USD cross has been subsumed by what its supposed to be - namely a safe haven that goes up when risk is taken off the table. So IF Gold continues to slide, what does that imply? Its back to being a USD cross(and USD should continue to rally?), or that people are hoovering up risk and theres no need for safe havens?

Its also an extremely anemic end to a ten year bull run in such a popular commod, no? Usually commods blow-out at the end; Gold has been crawling of late. I guess theres a technial arguement for a high to be in looking at a daily graph, it just seems a suspiciously limp end to such a huge bull run, and an uncharacteristically formal decline from the recent high aswell for that matter!

Odd.

[cloudhopper]

For the tech minded ...

gold is in classic cup and handle formation targeting $1450

Looks like the dreaded "inverted half-batman" formation to me, and another futile effort to predict non-linear behavior.

[Naam]

For the tech minded ... gold is in classic cup and handle formation targeting $1450

Looks like the dreaded "inverted half-batman" formation to me, and another futile effort to predict non-linear behavior.

voodoo is alive and well

[churchill]

At the momment ! people are still buying /

Gold Shares ETF 'Tonnes in Trust' Continues to Rise

http://seekingalpha.com/article/206024-gol...ntinues-to-rise

[Naam]

At the momment ! people are still buying

yep! people are buying, most central banks are buying, China advises its citizens to buy, the goldbugs in Thaivisa are buying and Mrs Naam is since days on the verge to buy. in short everybody who has a penny to spare is buying and that must be the reason why gold is falling inspite of a weaker dollar.

next logical conclusion please!

[flying]

that must be the reason why gold is falling inspite of a weaker dollar.

Are you sure? Because the gold I see is just sitting there for the most part.

Nice place to be compared to pretty much everything else. Nice tranquil no problemo

As always I am talking physical not paper. Physical even as I type is still over 1200/oz USD

Nice not to be a trader at this time.

Edited May 21, 2010 by flying

[Naam]

that must be the reason why gold is falling inspite of a weaker dollar.

1. Are you sure? Because the gold I see is just sitting there for the most part.

2. As always I am talking physical not paper. Physical even as I type is still over 1200/oz USD

1. very sure! my goldsource sits at her desk 30 meters (as the crow flies) from mine. sometimes she walks around in my home, visits me, drinks coffee in my study and lectures me about the intrinsic value of various commodities (plural, not only gold). bakeries are not (yet) mentioned.

2. one ounce physical AUrum in Thailand down 2,000 Baht in 9 days.

[sokal]

Gold here is odd.

Lately XAUs typical dynamic of being little more than another USD cross has been subsumed by what its supposed to be - namely a safe haven that goes up when risk is taken off the table. So IF Gold continues to slide, what does that imply? Its back to being a USD cross(and USD should continue to rally?), or that people are hoovering up risk and theres no need for safe havens?

Its also an extremely anemic end to a ten year bull run in such a popular commod, no? Usually commods blow-out at the end; Gold has been crawling of late. I guess theres a technial arguement for a high to be in looking at a daily graph, it just seems a suspiciously limp end to such a huge bull run, and an uncharacteristically formal decline from the recent high aswell for that matter!

Odd.

Nothing goes up in a strait line and gold was up $25 the day of the flash crash.

[sokal]

At the momment ! people are still buying

yep! people are buying, most central banks are buying, China advises its citizens to buy, the goldbugs in Thaivisa are buying and Mrs Naam is since days on the verge to buy. in short everybody who has a penny to spare is buying and that must be the reason why gold is falling inspite of a weaker dollar.

next logical conclusion please!

weaker dollar my a$$. Gold has been going up with the dollar the last 2 months.

[Naam]

At the momment ! people are still buying

yep! people are buying, most central banks are buying, China advises its citizens to buy, the goldbugs in Thaivisa are buying and Mrs Naam is since days on the verge to buy. in short everybody who has a penny to spare is buying and that must be the reason why gold is falling inspite of a weaker dollar.

next logical conclusion please!

weaker dollar my a$$. Gold has been going up with the dollar the last 2 months.

i did not talk about the last two months smartàss. learn reading english in order not to put words in my mouth. for the record: USD fell vs. most other non-pegged currencies 3-4% in two trading days and Gold 5% in nine trading days. do some homework, think and then type.

[flying]

that must be the reason why gold is falling inspite of a weaker dollar.

1. Are you sure? Because the gold I see is just sitting there for the most part.

2. As always I am talking physical not paper. Physical even as I type is still over 1200/oz USD

1. very sure! my goldsource sits at her desk 30 meters (as the crow flies) from mine. sometimes she walks around in my home, visits me, drinks coffee in my study and lectures me about the intrinsic value of various commodities (plural, not only gold). bakeries are not (yet) mentioned.

2. one ounce physical AUrum in Thailand down 2,000 Baht in 9 days.

Heheh nice to hear the Mrs has a desk nearby.

But yes of course nothing goes vertical all the time. But I am sur the Mrs like me is not worried & over the course of the last year or more...It has been quite tranquilo An asset easy to own as it has not created much fear for the holder.

[Naam]

But yes of course nothing goes vertical all the time. But I am sur the Mrs like me is not worried & over the course of the last year or more...It has been quite tranquilo An asset easy to own as it has not created much fear for the holder...

...if he/she did not buy in jan 1980 but even those did not fear for too long. after five years some of them died of starvation, others resorted to bank robbery and had for years free food and shelter provided in prisons and the real desperate ones committed suicide in various ways. some of them (according to unconfirmed rumours) by cremation in the ovens of pizza bakeries (without toppings)

[Gambles]

Otehr than HFTs and AHL both use computer programs, there are no further similarities between them, as IM sure you're aware.

AHLs April performance details:

The AHL Diversified Program recorded a gain of 2.32% in April

as trends were captured in both 'risk' and 'safe haven' assets,

producing gains.

Economic releases and corporate earnings continued to lend

support to the economic recovery theme however, markets failed

to cope with the uncertainty over the resolution of the Greek

sovereign debt crisis and the potential for the crisis to be repeated

in other European countries. As a result market movements

seemed less correlated.

During this trading environment, AHL made gains across most

sectors. In particular, long positions in European bonds accrued

strong gains as prices surged over the Greek debt crisis. The

resulting risk aversion also assisted the precious metals sector,

with long positions in gold and silver accruing notable gains.

Further gains were driven by two main themes: currency trading

and long stock positions. In currency trading profits were made

by long positions in AUD against USD as the Reserve Bank of

Australia raised rates early in the month. Positions in BRL versus

USD proved profitable.

The stock sector added further gains as rising equity markets

proved beneficial to long positions in the US in particular. Strong

first quarter earnings in the US combined with solid economic

data releases generally drove gains. Notable returns included long

trades in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100.

In Energy trading, losses were mainly attributable to short

positions in natural gas trading as gas prices recovered slightly.

Further losses were experienced by short GBP versus USD trades

as the British pound rebounded after data showed a narrowing of

UK's trade deficit in February.

Monthly summary report as at 26 April 2010

Historical performance*

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YTD

2007 NA NA NA NA NA NA -5.81% -3.85% 5.28% 7.72% 4.06% -4.30% 2.27%

2008 5.78% 2.77% 4.29% 1.07% 3.19% 1.22% -5.71% -3.69% 0.02% 16.37% 1.23% 5.50% 35.10%

2009 -1.78% 0.14% -5.08% -3.80% 0.28% -3.45% 1.07% -0.98% 2.66% -1.56% 2.46% -5.74% -15.05%

2010 -1.97% -0.57% 5.87% 2.32% 5.59%

I'd say not just that they use computers but the way that they use them - surely both are related to the same core concept of using 'black boxes' to try to recognise patterns that dictate future movements of asset prices from given inputs - I'm certainly no expert in HFT programmes but if they're not reacting to current market data to predict the next moves then I don't know how they generate their triggers

What the triggers are, how they recognise them and what they do with the triggers is admittedly very different and in practice the results will be too and the algorithms generally trade stocks not managed futures contracts but surely the basic core concept stems from the same place doesn't it? I did say 'conceptually' but maybe I was a bit too loose in leaving just at that?

[flying]

...if he/she did not buy in jan 1980

[sokal]

But yes of course nothing goes vertical all the time. But I am sur the Mrs like me is not worried & over the course of the last year or more...It has been quite tranquilo An asset easy to own as it has not created much fear for the holder...

...if he/she did not buy in jan 1980 but even those did not fear for too long. after five years some of them died of starvation, others resorted to bank robbery and had for years free food and shelter provided in prisons and the real desperate ones committed suicide in various ways. some of them (according to unconfirmed rumours) by cremation in the ovens of pizza bakeries (without toppings)

Like all the S & P and Nasdaq investors now ? Soon to be bond investors.

[Abrak]

Heheh nice to hear the Mrs has a desk nearby.

But yes of course nothing goes vertical all the time. But I am sur the Mrs like me is not worried & over the course of the last year or more...It has been quite tranquilo An asset easy to own as it has not created much fear for the holder.

I fully respect that you do not punt gold but simply see it as a very safe long term investment.

What actually bugs me about the whole concept is that I believe the underlying assumption you make in that investment is that Governments and Central Banks destroy value and are basically incompetent. That underlying assumption may well be right but it is rather depressing. The very essence of economics and almost civilization is reciprocal altruism, mutually beneficial transactions and value creation.

[Jake1]

Heheh nice to hear the Mrs has a desk nearby.

But yes of course nothing goes vertical all the time. But I am sur the Mrs like me is not worried & over the course of the last year or more...It has been quite tranquilo An asset easy to own as it has not created much fear for the holder.

I fully respect that you do not punt gold but simply see it as a very safe long term investment.

What actually bugs me about the whole concept is that I believe the underlying assumption you make in that investment is that Governments and Central Banks destroy value and are basically incompetent. That underlying assumption may well be right but it is rather depressing. The very essence of economics and almost civilization is reciprocal altruism, mutually beneficial transactions and value creation.

This may be a good read for you http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2010/04/life-in-ant-farm.html

I believe Flying gets some of his thoughts from this blog

[HardenedSoul]

At the momment ! people are still buying

yep! people are buying, most central banks are buying, China advises its citizens to buy, the goldbugs in Thaivisa are buying and Mrs Naam is since days on the verge to buy. in short everybody who has a penny to spare is buying and that must be the reason why gold is falling inspite of a weaker dollar.

next logical conclusion please!

Ok well there it is. Naam's called it. We've all been idiots for buying gold because it's been paring some gains for a couple of days or so as traders take profits and square their Friday positions. Ignore the fact that he's been wrong, wrong, wrong on gold since this thread began.

[flying]

I fully respect that you do not punt gold but simply see it as a very safe long term investment.

What actually bugs me about the whole concept is that I believe the underlying assumption you make in that investment is that Governments and Central Banks destroy value and are basically incompetent. That underlying assumption may well be right but it is rather depressing. The very essence of economics and almost civilization is reciprocal altruism, mutually beneficial transactions and value creation.

This may be a good read for you http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2010/04/life-in-ant-farm.html

I believe Flying gets some of his thoughts from this blog

It is true & Thanks Jake for that site. It was you who showed it to me a year or so ago. Good Site !

Abrak...Yes I do feel the Govt destroys the wealth of certain classes at will & yes it is rather depressing. The fact that they do show much incompetence while doing it only adds to that feeling.

As for....

The very essence of economics and almost civilization is reciprocal altruism, mutually beneficial transactions and value creation.

I agree it is a righteous thought.....

But at this time that is not shown in the actions we have seen our elected official take on behalf of their creditors/campaign contributors.

[Naam]

At the momment ! people are still buying

yep! people are buying, most central banks are buying, China advises its citizens to buy, the goldbugs in Thaivisa are buying and Mrs Naam is since days on the verge to buy. in short everybody who has a penny to spare is buying and that must be the reason why gold is falling inspite of a weaker dollar.

next logical conclusion please!

Ok well there it is. Naam's called it. We've all been idiots for buying gold because it's been paring some gains for a couple of days or so as traders take profits and square their Friday positions. Ignore the fact that he's been wrong, wrong, wrong on gold since this thread began.

one more who needs reading glasses i stated a fact as an answer/information for Flying who asked a specific question. nothing more, nothing less. then irrelevant comments are made (see above). by the way, one could claim that "wrong" is the one who made less money with his investments since this thread began. but as anybody can claim what he wants without submitting proof, any discussion "who is right or wrong" is as superfluous as the tits of a nun.

for the record: this thread started when gold traded at $785/ounce and we were in the middle of the deepest crisis experienced in the last decades which depressed all assets. today gold trades at $1,775 id est it gained roughly 50% in 19 months = linear annualised ~31% p.a. which is an excellent result for "normal" investment years. however, the last quarter of 2008 and whole 2009 were not normal investment years but provided ample opportunities in other asset classes with triple digit yields.

p.s. although we are discussing the precious metal itself i am now waiting for some smartàss to chip in and telling us (as he did before) that he made x-thousand percent profit with the shares of some mining companies.

[midas]

Sokal

Is this you ?

http://www.businessinsider.com/thomas-kapl...old-bull-2010-5

[Gambles]

Dear all,

Please find below the latest update from MBMG International.

One of the men who predicted the credit crunch is now warning of a potentially 'vicious' debt crisis.

No not yours truly.

Not GMA's John Sheehan.

Not Scott Campbell or Martin Gray but in fact Nassim Taleb, who wrote the books "Black Swan" and "Fooled by Randomness" now believes, as do we, that the world debt problem in total, is worse now than it was at the height of the credit crunch.

Like us he thinks that the time has come to ditch equities and US Treasuries. Taleb is backing hard assets.

Taleb told Bloomberg that governments have failed to learn the lessons of the banking crisis and have allowed the debt problem to morph into a new and more 'vicious' sovereign form:

'I had detected fragility in the banking system and it is still there and we need to do something about it....We have had a couple of years since the meltdown and the risks have increased and taken a much more vicious form.'

Sharing our concerns about the Fed Governors who admit that policy is unproven and that basically policymakers are flying by the seat of their pants, he warns that theories not backed by empirical evidence, such as the pricing of assets and risk, and says the globalisation has made events and outcomes totally unpredictable and he shares our concerns about the extent to which the entire global economy has become more inter-connected.

Taleb brands the government bailouts of the financial system and the transfer of debt from the private to the public sector as 'a fast-track to increasing moral hazard' and like ourselves and critics such as Ron Paul, he is scathing about the profits made by the banks over the past year.

'Look at all of the money they made with our backing- it is like they spat in our faces....We have a lower tax base than two years ago because less people are in work than two years ago and are now depending on economic forecasting by governments. Obama is forecasting a deficit of $4-7 trillion depending on the parameters you use but a small glitch can mean the deficit for the next 10 years swells to $20 trillion.'

Greece was recently forecasting debt to GDP of 3%, which now stands at 14% and rising - deteriorations can take place very quickly -

'The same thing will happen to the US- typical government underestimating.'

It's good to have some company once again in the bear pit!

Enjoy your day!

Once again, very best regards,

MBMG International

[teletiger]

What actually bugs me about the whole concept is that I believe the underlying assumption you make in that investment is that Governments and Central Banks destroy value and are basically incompetent. That underlying assumption may well be right but it is rather depressing. The very essence of economics and almost civilization is reciprocal altruism, mutually beneficial transactions and value creation.

Incompetent? Do you understand the brains it took to pull off the heist of the Millenium? 'And what your last sentence has to do with central banks, I know not, other than have them pissing themselves laughing.

Regards.

[cpofc]

I was wandering past a couple of Gold Shops today and for some strange reason made a mental note of the cost of 1 baht. Shit, it doesn't seem all that long ago it was about 5 1/2 Grand!

Then another thought occurred to me. Someone very old and wise once said to me - Gold. It is the currency of wars and depressions.

Seems like we are on the brink of both.

So where do you think gold is going?

[flying]

So where do you think gold is going?

5 Year chart.... I dont think it has run out of steam yet.

[Naam]

So where do you think gold is going?

if it doesn't go up or down it might go "sideways"

[lannarebirth]

So where do you think gold is going?

5 Year chart.... I dont think it has run out of steam yet.

Remember that inverted Head and Shoulders pattern everyone was so excited about at 1000ish? Well, you've just about reached the target.

[flying]

Remember that inverted Head and Shoulders pattern everyone was so excited about at 1000ish? Well, you've just about reached the target.

Thats right isn't it? I had forgotten about that.

Will be interesting to watch then

[Gambles]

Remember that inverted Head and Shoulders pattern everyone was so excited about at 1000ish? Well, you've just about reached the target.

Thats right isn't it? I had forgotten about that.

Will be interesting to watch then

The next few weeks and possibly months should tell us whether it will dip significantly if at all, before resuming the upwards trajectory that we all expect

Maybe Dollar-Cost-Average is the best strategy for gold right now because of this uncertainty - when it's stacked like this, take the timing out of the equation???

Edited May 28, 2010 by Gambles