Capital Faces Oversupply Of Condo Units

[bingobongo]

well, reality finally meets fantasy..........

credit crunch - check

oversupply - check

gvt on verge of collapse - check

local economy disintegrating - check

BANGKOK PROPERTY MARKET

Capital faces oversupply of condo units

Falling demand leaves developers with a large inventory of unsold units

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2008/10/31...ss_30087290.php

Sounds like a great time to buy!

let me guess, you actually think LOS has a future because your family lives there? dont mix emotion with investing

sure, buying now would be PURE GENIUS..........ever hear the old adage trying to catch a falling kife.....here is a visual for you, please let me know when the gvt collapses, never mind it will be on BBC or CNN with a live feed once the bombs/tear gas/violence erupts again

Edited November 2, 2008 by bingobongo

[bingobongo]

funny how when prices are going up they say its a great time to buy, and when proces are going down its also a great time to buy.........

Residential prices may drop in 2009

Prices for residential properties in Thailand could fall in 2009, due to a combination of falling construction material costs and a slowing in demand, according to some developers.

http://www.property-report.com/aprarchives...amp;date=031108

[bendix]

Yes bingobongo. We know your views on this. You have posted about nothing else for the last year.

We get it. You don't want to buy property.

Some others do. What's your point, and why do you care so much?

Go ahead and rent. It's your money. Some of us will buy. It's our money.

It aint rocket science.

[bingobongo]

of course it won't crash, because LOS is special, filled with unicorns and rainbows

i wonder if these are the same folks who thought the SET would not lose 50%

so lets recap......

Government in chaos - check

Economy skidding - check

Oversupply - check

BOT about to cut rates to devalue the baht so any farang schmuck who buys now will lose his pittance in nonexsiting appreciation via the baht sinking - check

funny, they said the same that London, NYC, Madrid, Moscow, and Beijing were also immune to tumbling prices, no there won't be a crash in LOS, but an even worse grinding down of prices over many years as folks try to catch the falling knife

Thai property market slows but won't crash

Indeed, prices of luxury homes in Thailand - which were popular with affluent foreigners - look set to fall. But while demand and prices are likely to slip, analysts and property experts based in the country say they do not expect the market to crash.

http://business.asiaone.com/Business/My%2B...1103-98077.html

[Gary A]

Seeing what happened to my stock market investment, a Bangkok condo would have been a splendid investment.

[clausewitz]

I guess my bottom line is that as long as people are not getting loans / mortgages for property purchases then there will be a continued demand for rental properties. I have seen a recent trend here that more and more Thai people are buying "falang" style properties in order to rent them out to those foreigners that are reluctant to purchase in the current climate.

But hey, who knows what will happen next!

Kitisak Champatippong, senior vice president of property agency Harrison, said demand for residential projects located close to mass transit, from both local and foreign buyers, had fallen by up to 50 per cent year on year so far this quarter. This is because home-buyers believe the global economic crisis will affect Thailand's economy next year, and they are concerned about their earnings

If any banks start decreasing their lending then you could have a roll on effect where buyers can't get loans. The market would then halve again. Already the number of vacant units in Bangkok, in all price brackets, is astronomic, if it gets any worse something has to give.

[bendix]

of course it won't crash, because LOS is special, filled with unicorns and rainbows

i wonder if these are the same folks who thought the SET would not lose 50%

so lets recap......

Government in chaos - check

Economy skidding - check

Oversupply - check

BOT about to cut rates to devalue the baht so any farang schmuck who buys now will lose his pittance in nonexsiting appreciation via the baht sinking - check

funny, they said the same that London, NYC, Madrid, Moscow, and Beijing were also immune to tumbling prices, no there won't be a crash in LOS, but an even worse grinding down of prices over many years as folks try to catch the falling knife

Thai property market slows but won't crash

Indeed, prices of luxury homes in Thailand - which were popular with affluent foreigners - look set to fall. But while demand and prices are likely to slip, analysts and property experts based in the country say they do not expect the market to crash.

http://business.asiaone.com/Business/My%2B...1103-98077.html

I have two questions?

1) How do you invest your spare money, if you have any?

2) Are you Clayton Seymour in disguise?

[glyph]

"[t]he number of vacant units in Bangkok, in all price brackets, is astronomic..."

Astronomic? Based on your English, or your compelling statistical analysis and comprehensive knowledge of the Bangkok real estate market?

[bingobongo]

glyph you are a simple sod, but thats ok

PROPERTY OUTLOOK

Property firms bite bitter pill

Third quarter results likely to trail second quarter as buyers defer decision

Property firms will face hard times in the last quarter of this year as homebuyers may delay their decision to invest in residential projects beginning in the third quarter, according to research by Asia Plus Securities.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2008/11/04...ss_30087484.php

[bendix]

My god, you're a boring boring man, bingobongo.

Do you bore people in bars and at dinner parties with your single-dimensional obsession the same way you bore us?

[bingobongo]

another day of bombings another day of reality......ho hum, but hey its always a great time to buy, just remember to get a good balcony so you can can get a good view of the civil unrest

RESIDENTIAL OUTLOOK

TOUGH YEAR AHEAD FOR DEVELOPERS

Despite likely drop in house prices, demand may fall as crisis bites

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2008/11/03...ss_30087345.php

[cclub75]

My god, you're a boring boring man, bingobongo.

Do you bore people in bars and at dinner parties with your single-dimensional obsession the same way you bore us?

Well Bendix, you seem more assiduous than bored, because obviously you love to read this thread, on a daily basis...

So ?

As for myself, I'm not bored at all. BB was right. Is right. And will be right.

And it's highly entertaining to see that some people continue to deny the reality (but I'm not speaking about you, you're too wise to be fooled).

It's really fascinating. And says a lot about human behaviour and emotions.

Edited November 4, 2008 by cclub75

[donx]

My god, you're a boring boring man, bingobongo.

Do you bore people in bars and at dinner parties with your single-dimensional obsession the same way you bore us?

Well Bendix, you seem more assiduous than bored, because obviously you love to read this thread, on a daily basis...

So ?

As for myself, I'm not bored at all. BB was right. Is right. And will be right.

And it's highly entertaining to see that some people continue to deny the reality (but I'm not speaking about you, you're too wise to be fooled).

It's really fascinating. And says a lot about human behaviour and emotions.

cclub75,

I've tried in the past to get bingobongo to respond to a serious question, but as he has and is doing with bendix, he simply has no interest in discussing anything. Since you appear to agree with bingobongo I would like to ask you the same question I asked him several times before. Assuming that this is not a good time to buy a condo in Thailand, when do you think will be a good time to buy? I assume that since bingobongo always repeats that same mantra "don't buy" that he would say that there will never be a good time to buy a condo in Thailand. Do you agree with this or do you see a potential buying opportunity in say 2, 5, 10, or 20 years down the road? I know this is a speculative question that depends a lot on what happens in the future, but I'm truly interested in having a place in Bangkok sometime between now and 20 years from now.

[midas]

cclub75,

I've tried in the past to get bingobongo to respond to a serious question, but as he has and is doing with bendix, he simply has no interest in discussing anything. Since you appear to agree with bingobongo I would like to ask you the same question I asked him several times before. Assuming that this is not a good time to buy a condo in Thailand, when do you think will be a good time to buy? I assume that since bingobongo always repeats that same mantra "don't buy" that he would say that there will never be a good time to buy a condo in Thailand. Do you agree with this or do you see a potential buying opportunity in say 2, 5, 10, or 20 years down the road? I know this is a speculative question that depends a lot on what happens in the future, but I'm truly interested in having a place in Bangkok sometime between now and 20 years from now.

donx I also share cclub75's view of economic matters I would like to comment. If you are " truly interested in having a place in Bangkok sometime "

to live in yourself I could not see anything drastic occurring in terms of a market crash ot anything because conditions here are not the same as in the West

where people rely more on mortgage finance. But at the same time if your motive to buy a place here is driven by a desire to make capital

gains I think you would be disappointed for a very long time because things have changed beyond people's imagination. It

depends if you're happy to tie up your capital in what I forsee will become a very illiquid asset in the future and in particular in Thailand where

many Thais don't even like to buy " secondhand " condominiums. And the remaining " expat " market for your condo which by then will be secondhand, I think will shrink very significantly

[glyph]

"I've tried in the past to get bingobongo to respond to a serious question...he simply has no interest in discussing anything...I assume that since bingobongo always repeats that same mantra 'don't buy' that he would say that there will never be a good time to buy a condo in Thailand."

bingobongo has his own agenda, which he admitted to in one of his postings: he promised to buy a home for him and his partner, and is now doing everything possible to put him off. Too, bingobongo uses the name "kokothemonkey" on another "do not buy real estate in Thailand" website, and he describes himself as: staright, married, and lost money selling a condo. Bingo bongo predicted that the strong THB would destroy the real estate market, then it was the strong baht, then it was "over supply" - his personal favorite, then it was Thaksin, then it was the coup, then it was Samat, then it was the impending coup, then it was Samat's departure, then it was the US housing crisis, then it was...Well, you get the picture. His consistency is remarkable, as is his inaccuracy.

Many TVers claim that they would buy property, "if only...", and they "if only" includes an Singapore-type infrastructure, a Singapore-type government, a Singapore-type <this>, and a Singapore-type <that>. Hey, you can get all of that in Singapore...and the real estate is considerably more expensive there. Accordingly, when you buy property in Thailand, you're buying it with all of the plusses and minuses that are evident in Thailand. So, when is it a good time to buy? It's always a good time to buy, and it is up to YOU to decide if the price of the property (along with the aforementioned plusses and minuses) fit your needs. Purchasing real estate is never a risk-free proposition anywhere, and that includes Thailand.

You should realize that the TVers who comment "never buy", are a rather select group of people: they don't own a home, they never have owned a home, and they never will own a home. Asking them for unbiased information, is similar to asking the Pope the best sexual position to satisfy a woman. As Earl Butz (real name, real US politician, and a real jerk), put it in regards to the Pope and contraception: "you no play-a the game, you no make-a the rules".

Edited November 5, 2008 by glyph

[quiksilva]

cclub75,

I've tried in the past to get bingobongo to respond to a serious question, but as he has and is doing with bendix, he simply has no interest in discussing anything. Since you appear to agree with bingobongo I would like to ask you the same question I asked him several times before. Assuming that this is not a good time to buy a condo in Thailand, when do you think will be a good time to buy? I assume that since bingobongo always repeats that same mantra "don't buy" that he would say that there will never be a good time to buy a condo in Thailand. Do you agree with this or do you see a potential buying opportunity in say 2, 5, 10, or 20 years down the road? I know this is a speculative question that depends a lot on what happens in the future, but I'm truly interested in having a place in Bangkok sometime between now and 20 years from now.

donx I also share cclub75's view of economic matters I would like to comment. If you are " truly interested in having a place in Bangkok sometime "

to live in yourself I could not see anything drastic occurring in terms of a market crash ot anything because conditions here are not the same as in the West

where people rely more on mortgage finance. But at the same time if your motive to buy a place here is driven by a desire to make capital

gains I think you would be disappointed for a very long time because things have changed beyond people's imagination. It

depends if you're happy to tie up your capital in what I forsee will become a very illiquid asset in the future and in particular in Thailand where

many Thais don't even like to buy " secondhand " condominiums. And the remaining " expat " market for your condo which by then will be secondhand, I think will shrink very significantly

Quoted for the truth.

Buy, if its your primary residence. By all means buy if you can comfortably afford to own second home. Buy, if the rental income produces a yield that you are satisfied with (and the location is prime enough to sustain continued demand). But not if you are looking capital gains, and not if you think you may have to sell at short notice or indeed any time soon.

Edited November 5, 2008 by quiksilva

[fidelio]

"I've tried in the past to get bingobongo to respond to a serious question...he simply has no interest in discussing anything...I assume that since bingobongo always repeats that same mantra 'don't buy' that he would say that there will never be a good time to buy a condo in Thailand."

bingobongo has his own agenda, which he admitted to in one of his postings: he promised to buy a home for him and his partner, and is now doing everything possible to put him off. Too, bingobongo uses the name "kokothemonkey" on another "do not buy real estate in Thailand" website, and he describes himself as: staright, married, and lost money selling a condo. Bingo bongo predicted that the strong THB would destroy the real estate market, then it was the strong baht, then it was "over supply" - his personal favorite, then it was Thaksin, then it was the coup, then it was Samat, then it was the impending coup, then it was Samat's departure, then it was the US housing crisis, then it was...Well, you get the picture. His consistency is remarkable, as is his inaccuracy.

Many TVers claim that they would buy property, "if only...", and they "if only" includes an Singapore-type infrastructure, a Singapore-type government, a Singapore-type <this>, and a Singapore-type <that>. Hey, you can get all of that in Singapore...and the real estate is considerably more expensive there. Accordingly, when you buy property in Thailand, you're buying it with all of the plusses and minuses that are evident in Thailand. So, when is it a good time to buy? It's always a good time to buy, and it is up to YOU to decide if the price of the property (along with the aforementioned plusses and minuses) fit your needs. Purchasing real estate is never a risk-free proposition anywhere, and that includes Thailand.

You should realize that the TVers who comment "never buy", are a rather select group of people: they don't own a home, they never have owned a home, and they never will own a home. Asking them for unbiased information, is similar to asking the Pope the best sexual position to satisfy a woman.

Of course , to know the truth , we should ask those questions to a real estate cheerleader like you, Mr.Pinnacle of honesty.

Tell us you have no vested interest in the Thai real estate market.

[OxfordWill]

bingo bongo bingo bongo bingo bongo boring.

[bingobongo]

delusion truly is amazing, so despite the skidding economy and a nonfunctioning gvt, and oversupply, some folks think LOS is still a great place to park the dough?

i add this for comparative purposes, Hong Kong more dynamic and feeling pain, LOS has som tham and sexpats and immune? your dreaming

Hong Kong Real Estate: Biggest Home Sales Drop Since 1999

Hong Kong's home sales fell 58% y/y in volume and 63% in price in October (2008) as local lenders tightened mortgage lending amid a slowdown in the economy - this is the largest drop since 1999 and the fourth consecutive monthly decline. Bank lending rose 13% in September, the slowest in over a year, and almost half the 24% increase in August. Office rents in Hong Kong may experience a 20% drop by the end of 2009.

[cclub75]

cclub75,

I've tried in the past to get bingobongo to respond to a serious question, but as he has and is doing with bendix, he simply has no interest in discussing anything. Since you appear to agree with bingobongo I would like to ask you the same question I asked him several times before. Assuming that this is not a good time to buy a condo in Thailand, when do you think will be a good time to buy? I assume that since bingobongo always repeats that same mantra "don't buy" that he would say that there will never be a good time to buy a condo in Thailand. Do you agree with this or do you see a potential buying opportunity in say 2, 5, 10, or 20 years down the road? I know this is a speculative question that depends a lot on what happens in the future, but I'm truly interested in having a place in Bangkok sometime between now and 20 years from now.

At last someone who ask a real question.

Here is my real answer.

OPPORTUNITY TO BUY

-I'd say sure... if you have a family in Thailand, if you're living full time (retiree, business owner etc.). It's a good idea to buy your own place (condo).

-but as an investor (day dreamers, flippers gang, the "prices have doubled in the past 5 years so the market is healthy" brigade, the "I'll always be able to rent my condo to a rich and stupid farang" sect, the "the cousin of my step brother's maid made a huge profit by reselling her condo at Siam Square last year" army, the "prices are so cheap in Bangkok compared to... New York" tribe, the lovers of the decoupling theory "Asia won't suffer from the crisis", etc.) ? No way.

No way.

TIME TO BUY

-you set some time lines. I believe the best one, the most reasonable, is 5 years.

-5 years should be enough to let the bubble deflate, and most importantly to see better where the current global crisis is going to lead us. That's the most important point : currently we know shit. It's too dark outside. We need to wait a little bit to see clearer.

It's not a matter of beliefs or personal taste : anyone with at least 2 neurons connected together should aknowledge that the uncertainty (political and economic) is way too high currently in Thailand. I could even say extraordinary high (wait for the... royal succession... you haven't seen nothing).

Meanwhile, no one dare to say (even the most excited members of the boiler room) that the prices will continue to rise in the near future in Bangkok.

Therefore : there is absolutly no risk to wait.

This is the most reasonable position, I can even say the only position, when you compute all the datas. Period.

And this is precisely what bothers the boiler room : they want you to go fast, to buy now (good bargain... condos... stocks... cars... so cheap... buy buy buy buy... do it fast... tomorrow it will be more expensive... take a loan... please I'm begging you, MAKE MY DAY HONEY -and my fees- just buy and shut the xxx up)

So to summarize, if we put on the side the reason i've stated at the beginning (you want to buy, because you're going to live long time in the country), it is just plain stupid to buy a condo now for any other reasons.

Edited November 5, 2008 by cclub75

[bingobongo]

i only have a few words of wisdom........are you ready

1) condos in LOS are like bargirls, they age quickly, lack substance, and are difficult to get rid of once the initial excitement wears off

2) emotions are best left for sad movies and dealing with children, not when it comes to dealing with money/investments

3) why is that many fools will overpay for stocks (like now) and real estate (like now) and yet look for bargains when it comes to buying food and the necessities of life when it should be the opposite? because people get emotional about the new condo/stocks and not about food, and these same fools will CONSISTENTLY make the wrong choice......good luck bagholders, you will need it

asian stocks and real estate will soon be at lower levels you cant even have possibly imagined, but then again some of you never thought the SET would go from 800 to 400 did you?

[donx]

cclub75,

I've tried in the past to get bingobongo to respond to a serious question, but as he has and is doing with bendix, he simply has no interest in discussing anything. Since you appear to agree with bingobongo I would like to ask you the same question I asked him several times before. Assuming that this is not a good time to buy a condo in Thailand, when do you think will be a good time to buy? I assume that since bingobongo always repeats that same mantra "don't buy" that he would say that there will never be a good time to buy a condo in Thailand. Do you agree with this or do you see a potential buying opportunity in say 2, 5, 10, or 20 years down the road? I know this is a speculative question that depends a lot on what happens in the future, but I'm truly interested in having a place in Bangkok sometime between now and 20 years from now.

At last someone who ask a real question.

Here is my real answer.

OPPORTUNITY TO BUY

-I'd say sure... if you have a family in Thailand, if you're living full time (retiree, business owner etc.). It's a good idea to buy your own place (condo).

-but as an investor (day dreamers, flippers gang, the "prices have doubled in the past 5 years so the market is healthy" brigade, the "I'll always be able to rent my condo to a rich and stupid farang" sect, the "the cousin of my step brother's maid made a huge profit by reselling her condo at Siam Square last year" army, the "prices are so cheap in Bangkok compared to... New York" tribe, the lovers of the decoupling theory "Asia won't suffer from the crisis", etc.) ? No way.

No way.

TIME TO BUY

-you set some time lines. I believe the best one, the most reasonable, is 5 years.

-5 years should be enough to let the bubble deflate, and most importantly to see better where the current global crisis is going to lead us. That's the most important point : currently we know shit. It's too dark outside. We need to wait a little bit to see clearer.

It's not a matter of beliefs or personal taste : anyone with at least 2 neurons connected together should aknowledge that the uncertainty (political and economic) is way too high currently in Thailand. I could even say extraordinary high (wait for the... royal succession... you haven't seen nothing).

Meanwhile, no one dare to say (even the most excited members of the boiler room) that the prices will continue to rise in the near future in Bangkok.

Therefore : there is absolutly no risk to wait.

This is the most reasonable position, I can even say the only position, when you compute all the datas. Period.

And this is precisely what bothers the boiler room : they want you to go fast, to buy now (good bargain... condos... stocks... cars... so cheap... buy buy buy buy... do it fast... tomorrow it will be more expensive... take a loan... please I'm begging you, MAKE MY DAY HONEY -and my fees- just buy and shut the xxx up)

So to summarize, if we put on the side the reason i've stated at the beginning (you want to buy, because you're going to live long time in the country), it is just plain stupid to buy a condo now for any other reasons.

cclub75 and midas,

Thank you both for your insightful responses. Waiting at least 5 years or longer appears like the best approach for me. I do not live in Thailand now but I plan on retiring here in 15 to 20 years with my Thai wife, so the purchase is not intented as an investment. I have been keeping my eyes on the Thai real estate market because if a great opportunity presents itself, then I'd like to take advantage of it. I can always wait until the day I actually come here to live or never buy at all and simply rent. What I am trying to avoid though is finding out in 20 years that had I purchased 10 years earlier, I could have saved so much more money because prices have increased 50 times. I'm not saying that will happen, but I know from my experience in the US that property in certain areas has gone up dramatically within the last 20 years.

[midas]

What I am trying to avoid though is finding out in 20 years that had I purchased 10 years earlier, I could have saved so much more money because prices have increased 50 times. I'm not saying that will happen, but I know from my experience in the US that property in certain areas has gone up dramatically within the last 20 years.

But with great respect donx, can't you see what has happened? How could property " increase 50 times "

now when so much money ( that arguably wasn't meant to be there in the first place -but was swishing around

the system ) gone ? You only have to look at the increasing disparity between peoples incomes -look at

the trends. Last week American Express Co. announced not only retrenchments- but salary

REDUCTIONS ................

[BEENTHEREDONETHAT]

donx.............A couple of points to consider in your decision. One is that the maintenance in LOS condos can be rather hit or miss, and it is difficult to predict what it will be 10 years from now. That can affect the value of your investment.

You don't have to pay taxes on the property which is a big plus. You will have to pay building association fees which is a minus.

Looking out 15 or 20 years, I think you would be wise to wait until you get closer to your retirement date before making a decision. In fact unless you are sure of the area you want to live you might be better off renting for a year or so after you retire to insure that you like the area. A lot can change in 10 or 20 years.

Would like to add that Thailand is a great place to retire to and wish you the best of luck in your decisions.

[think_too_mut]

I do not live in Thailand now but I plan on retiring here in 15 to 20 years with my Thai wife, so the purchase is not intented as an investment.

Is there a building 20 years old today and still in good shape, hardly much to go by. Most of construction started late 80s.

Older buildings have seen little or no farangs and mostly are below the quality minimum (i.e. slums or rundown and poorly maintained).

[glyph]

"Of course, to know the truth , we should ask those questions to a real estate cheerleader like you, Mr. Pinnacle of honesty. Tell us you have no vested interest in the Thai real estate market."

That's it? That's your best shot? You imply that I've lied about something. What specifically did I lie about? Not a dang thing. What generally did I lie about. Not a dang thing. I bought a condo in BKK, and that's my entire vested interest.

You obviously believe that bingobongo speaks the truth. Here's an example of his investment advice. Accroding to him, "smart money" would invest in Viet Nam real estate, not BKK. His prediction came 4 months before the VN real estate market crash...and you think he knows what he is talking about.

Is your girlfriend satisfied? If your lovemaking is anything similar to your analytical ability, you couldn't find the G-spot in a 12 pound pu$$y.

[Nouf]

interesting debate certainly one of the better threads i have come across.

however i think i could throw a spanner into the works on both sides. i have recently noticed in the cassifields some middle end priced condo`s being flashed up as in need of a buyer quickly, i think these are the potential areas on the Bangkok condo scene that will likely see any declines

i also think it boils down to a few factors;

what percentage of the market has loaned capital against it, ie do the thais have mortgages linked to the properties??? or do thais in general pay cah for the properties????

what percentage of the market is actually thai owned, do many thais live in 5-10 million bhat properties?? or are they the 1-3 million bhat buyers???

the other factor in a section of the market is what i would called forced liquidation ie the need to sell, say a foerigner has trouble in his home country because his 401k or he needs to meet margin calls, or he needs to sell everthing he/she owns to protect asetts in his/her home country, then here is forced liquidation, pretty much what going on in the states at the moment and will likely see in the near term, before what i believe (imo) will then come hyperinflation, as many argue deflation vs inflation presently, but there is a difference between forced selling ie hedge funds are un-winding and a deflationary environment

so it will be interesting to note if any sectors do actually adjust to current environments, and the reasons for this (will it be forced selling from foreigners or banks taking back mortagaged properties from the thais`s but it also can be argued that unless you are a forced seller in this market then do you really need to sell, and what is your objective

so the market may just stagnate or slowly drop.

from what i can gather the thai market doesnt seem to be on the same premise such as that like the UK or the US

presently i am a renter but i have no desire to buy, however if i did see a number of forced sellers come into the market i would sure be thinking of prurchasing property if a decent return could be found ( i have monitored the classifields for a while and noticed a few mid priced condo coming to the market and having reductions, but not having a real grasp of the history of pricing of the condo market one cant assume yet if these are actual decent reductions or if they are still overpriced based on yield return)

is there any where i can obtain infomation on prior price`s etc

presently cash is king imo and there is likely to be great finds to buy at some stage once of the unwinding of all assetts is filtered through the system

but looking to buy property for rental is alot different that owning property, as if the figures dont match and the yield is poor then like any investment due dilegence should always be sought

we live in interesting times for sure

[midas]

interesting debate certainly one of the better threads i have come across.

however i think i could throw a spanner into the works on both sides. i have recently noticed in the cassifields some middle end priced condo`s being flashed up as in need of a buyer quickly, i think these are the potential areas on the Bangkok condo scene that will likely see any declines

i also think it boils down to a few factors;

what percentage of the market has loaned capital against it, ie do the thais have mortgages linked to the properties??? or do thais in general pay cah for the properties????

what percentage of the market is actually thai owned, do many thais live in 5-10 million bhat properties?? or are they the 1-3 million bhat buyers???

the other factor in a section of the market is what i would called forced liquidation ie the need to sell, say a foerigner has trouble in his home country because his 401k or he needs to meet margin calls, or he needs to sell everthing he/she owns to protect asetts in his/her home country, then here is forced liquidation, pretty much what going on in the states at the moment and will likely see in the near term, before what i believe (imo) will then come hyperinflation, as many argue deflation vs inflation presently, but there is a difference between forced selling ie hedge funds are un-winding and a deflationary environment

so it will be interesting to note if any sectors do actually adjust to current environments, and the reasons for this (will it be forced selling from foreigners or banks taking back mortagaged properties from the thais`s but it also can be argued that unless you are a forced seller in this market then do you really need to sell, and what is your objective

so the market may just stagnate or slowly drop.

from what i can gather the thai market doesnt seem to be on the same premise such as that like the UK or the US

presently i am a renter but i have no desire to buy, however if i did see a number of forced sellers come into the market i would sure be thinking of prurchasing property if a decent return could be found ( i have monitored the classifields for a while and noticed a few mid priced condo coming to the market and having reductions, but not having a real grasp of the history of pricing of the condo market one cant assume yet if these are actual decent reductions or if they are still overpriced based on yield return)

is there any where i can obtain infomation on prior price`s etc

presently cash is king imo and there is likely to be great finds to buy at some stage once of the unwinding of all assetts is filtered through the system

but looking to buy property for rental is alot different that owning property, as if the figures dont match and the yield is poor then like any investment due dilegence should always be sought

we live in interesting times for sure

Nouf your points are very interesting ! I get the impression just as many Thais rely on family money ( i.e. pooling their resources

all together ) than on bank loans. Then you have very wealthy Thais who buy a number of condos in the same building. But one-person who has

lived here a very long time once said to me something which I have always thought is true here that Thais don't properly understand concept of

the time value of money. Look how many simply locked the door to their empty shell condos in the last downturn in 1997 and simply

sat on them for years in some cases. Amazing! They had no concept of the potential loss of income for all those years. Had they finished them off

surely they would be able to get some rent back which would have been better than nothing. That's why I share your view that will just

stagnate again.

[donx]

What I am trying to avoid though is finding out in 20 years that had I purchased 10 years earlier, I could have saved so much more money because prices have increased 50 times. I'm not saying that will happen, but I know from my experience in the US that property in certain areas has gone up dramatically within the last 20 years.

But with great respect donx, can't you see what has happened? How could property " increase 50 times "

now when so much money ( that arguably wasn't meant to be there in the first place -but was swishing around

the system ) gone ? You only have to look at the increasing disparity between peoples incomes -look at

the trends. Last week American Express Co. announced not only retrenchments- but salary

REDUCTIONS ................

I understand the situation today. What I am asking about is when will there be a bottom - a golden opportunity to buy in the future. Surely with all this talk of a Thai market crisis there will come a time when the crisis is over and prices will increase many times over once again.

[donx]

donx.............A couple of points to consider in your decision. One is that the maintenance in LOS condos can be rather hit or miss, and it is difficult to predict what it will be 10 years from now. That can affect the value of your investment.

You don't have to pay taxes on the property which is a big plus. You will have to pay building association fees which is a minus.

Looking out 15 or 20 years, I think you would be wise to wait until you get closer to your retirement date before making a decision. In fact unless you are sure of the area you want to live you might be better off renting for a year or so after you retire to insure that you like the area. A lot can change in 10 or 20 years.

Would like to add that Thailand is a great place to retire to and wish you the best of luck in your decisions.

You are probably right. Buying a condo for the future isn't the same as buying a piece of land for the future (which we have already done). It makes the most sense for me to wait until I come here to retire even if there are good opportunities in 5 or 10 years from now. Thank you to all who have voiced your opinion regarding my question.