Property Prices At The Moment

[glyph]

Well, midas, I guess that the BKK real estate market has already tanked, and no one has noticed. Thanks for the heads up.

[midas]

Well, midas, I guess that the BKK real estate market has already tanked, and no one has noticed. Thanks for the heads up.

Your English skills are not so good are they glyph ?

You talk about " market has already tanked, " but Nigel Cornick says "We are thinking we will probably be in for a tough period "

but then many of your posts harp on about what happened in the past.................................... totally irrelevant to the conditions that lie ahead

[PeterPhuketdog]

I'm a new comer!

Not much experiences in property feild.

About 2 years in this business.

I think that the price might not be decreased but more competitions will be occured

[glyph]

"Your English skills are not so good are they glyph ? "

My post reflected my thoughts exactly. Your posts are the thoughts of someone else, and I guess that helps you save your intellectual energy.

[quiksilva]

I'm a new comer!

Not much experiences in property feild.

About 2 years in this business.

I think that the price might not be decreased but more competitions will be occured

Prices naturally drop as a consequence of more competition... IF they are motivated sellers.

Previous obstacles to volatility in Thai property market include the extremely long time it takes for banks to foreclose, (especially when you factor in the amount of stalling tactics debtors can use) so long in fact that its entirely feasible to retain possession until the market cycle swings back in their favour and market values catch up with their previous level as happened during the last crisis.

So whilst market values may fall, almost no transactions take place as sellers simply refuse to sell at a loss, and try to ride out the storm.

Edited November 12, 2008 by quiksilva

[pkrv]

Condo's are not a long term investment surely?

I am going to take a guess from your statement that you know little of condominiums - I think your UK based we don't really have condominiums in the UK so much like me (also UK based) this is a steep learning curve.

This is much like the house market in the UK. If you buy a house on a cliff edge and next year it falls into the sea, perhaps that was not a good investment. Buy Buckingham Palace for 1 GBP override preservation orders, tear it down and endlessly build new homes sell it for squllions of GBP good investment (OK I'm being silly).

In an established well run condominium (we are not talking about the falling into the sea scenario here, it's a case of doing your homework) it could eventually age in say 100 years (I don't think I am going to be around then), and it becomes beyond viable economic 'repair'.

At this stage a meeting would be called and a majority decision would be made on selling it, tearing it down and rebuilding. Such a decision would only be made if your share of the land made it make commercial sense, would it not?

Apart from that things go up and things go down.

Please take a look at this web site - I could not do this on my own in the center of Bangkok and it show what is possible I don't know what else is out there.

http://www.theparkresidence.co.th/exterior.htm

A condominium is like a hotel room you own and can on sell just like a house, from penthouse suite to broom cupboard room, 1 star to 5/6/7+ star.

Edited November 12, 2008 by pkrv

[midas]

Condo's are not a long term investment surely?

I am going to take a guess from your statement that you know little of condominiums - I think your UK based we don't really have condominiums in the UK so much like me (also UK based) this is a steep learning curve.

This is much like the house market in the UK. If you buy a house on a cliff edge and next year it falls into the sea, perhaps that was not a good investment. Buy Buckingham Palace for 1 GBP override preservation orders, tear it down and endlessly build new homes sell it for squllions of GBP good investment (OK I'm being silly).

In an established well run condominium (we are not talking about the falling into the sea scenario here, it's a case of doing your homework) it could eventually age in say 100 years (I don't think I am going to be around then), and it becomes beyond viable economic 'repair'.

At this stage a meeting would be called and a majority decision would be made on selling it, tearing it down and rebuilding. Such a decision would only be made if your share of the land made it make commercial sense, would it not?

Apart from that things go up and things go down.

Please take a look at this web site - I could not do this on my own in the center of Bangkok and it show what is possible I don't know what else is out there.

http://www.theparkresidence.co.th/exterior.htm

A condominium is like a hotel room you own and can on sell just like a house, from penthouse suite to broom cupboard room, 1 star to 5/6/7+ star.

I am very familiar with condominiums because I'm from Australia where we actually devised the system

of multiple ownership buildings by virtue of the Strata Titles Act. Well actually it was the company titles

act to begin with where the owner of the " common areas " was a Company with each " apartment " owner having a share of the Company.

But this was replaced by the far more equitable Strata Titles Act.

The reason I would never buy a condominium in this country is because it's

as if they have here what is only a half hearted attempt to to have a similar system to Australia.

But in Australia recognising that you will not always get a well behaved group of owners towing the line all the time,

the Strata Titles Act provided for a Strata Titles Commissioner ( a quasi judicial role ) to oversee all condominium developments.

The Commissioner in Australia has far more powers than the Juristic Person in Thailand and the success or otherwise

of any condominium development anywhere relies on enough power being held by at least one person to be able to take action

for the good of all the joint owners. I don't believe that power exists in Thailand.

For example, do you know what happens if people simply refuse to pay their condominium contributions in Thailand? I understand

it can be very difficult to force payment if you get a rouge owner who doesn't follow the rules ? What if you get a number

of problematic owners in one building?

You talk about a condominium building in Thailand that could " eventually age in say 100 years ". I think you are being

extremely optimistic based on the number of buildings I have seen in Bangkok needing to be refurbished after only 10 -15 years !

Edited November 12, 2008 by midas

[pkrv]

midas you know and I know we are talking about a really, really important investment in life - possibly one of the biggest we will ever make. I quite liked a post by greeside (though my point 0 no longer applies I could have lost 10% on FX exchange rate if not careful and on 14.5m that would have not been nice! and we now have had an AGM)

Stolen from greenside's post on 650k Condos - so usefull I have printed it out and will use the relevent bits (I added point 0.). Obviously no minutes from the AGM yet

0. Check you are getting the on-shore rate for your foreign currency transfer.

1. Get the minutes of the AGMs AND the Minutes of the Committee Meetings.

2. Read The Condo Act; read the Condo Regulations which is a legal document deposited with the Land Office

3. The Condo Association will also have records of what percentage of units are foreign owned. DON'T get stuck with a unit owned by a bogus Thai company.

4. Does the Committee meet as specified in the Regulations?

5. Are the Committee Members approachable and helpful?

6. Speak with as many non-committee member residents as possible

7. Meet the Manager. If he/she won't answer questions and says go speak with the Committee then do so.

8. If Committee says go speak with manager then unless you really like the building and would like to fight all this kind of nonsense at the AGM and during the year, go find somewhere else to buy.

9. Ask for the AUDITED financials; ask for monthly financial statements - they are common property and some good condos put up on notice board for all to peruse. Other condos are/may be secretive. If so, why?

10. Ask about major maintenance projects - sewage and drainage, water and filtration, roof, roads, gardens, painting of outside of building and corridors, elevators.

11. Have the projects planned for the previous year been completed OK? How about any work in progress?

12. Check the basement for damp.

13. Is there a Sinking Fund? Is it sufficient?

14. Is Insurance Coverage enough?

15. What are the yearly maintenance fees? What percentage of co-owners do not pay.

16. Are smoke alarms installed in common areas? In individual units? Are they checked and monitored and/or connected to the fire service?

17. Is there a sprinkler system?

18. Walk the emergency stairwells - what kind of lighting? Does it work? Are the stairwells clear and clean?

19. Check that fire fighting equipment is available and periodically maintained (there should be a record of costs associated with this so you don't just have to take someone's word for it)

20. Check that security personnel are smart, courteous and at their stations.

21. Is there 24 hour coverage by English speaking staff?

22. Does the office staff have name badges?

23. Is the building secure or can anyone just walk in and go where they please?

24. Is the perimeter secure?

25. Is there CCTV and does it work?

26. Are there recordings and how long are they kept?

27. If there is a key card system how often is it changed? How many key cards have been issued? How many are unaccounted for?

28. Try to find out how many burglaries in past 2 years.

29. Are the grounds neat and tidy?

30. Is the garbage room clean and tidy? How often is garbage collected?

31. Availability of (IDD) telephone (data) lines and the cost of same (some condos charge a criminal amount to get a IDD line).

32. Availability of cable TV choice and options for putting up own satellite dish(es).

33. Cost of metered services – water and electricity if supplied by building and cost of changing to own meters.

34. What facilities (residents' lounge, exercise room, etc.) are available and are they in use and good repair? Swimming pool? Tennis court? Is there a charge?

35. Are facilities open to non-residents? This can lead to an increased security risk and different atmosphere with strangers coming and going frequently. Is additional wear and tear on the facilities covered by the charges to non-residents or does the management pocket the takings?

36. Are there karaoke bars or other noisy places nearby? How often? How loud? How late?

37. If there is a view is there the possibility it could be blocked in the future?

38. Check basement rooms for trash, evidence of staff (and their friends) staying there.

39. Parking spaces are common property and should not be allocated.

40. How long to wait for an elevator during high season?

41. How many units are currently unoccupied?

42. How many units are currently offered for sale or rent? Check other prices.

43. Make sure most if not all the units in the building are occupied by the owners.

44. If the management offers to rent condo's on the owners' behalf, how much do they charge and exactly what service is on offer?

Yes the contract does deal with 'defaulters'. Things like access to all communal facilities like the lifts (OK for those who speak with a funny accent elevators ) try walking up 20 flights of un-air-conditioned emergency stairway! That kind of stuff.

Personally I noted some ridiculed me when I advised I was to pay three years maintenance up front on completion of The Park - Actually that was a MAJOR selling point for me because it actually blew out of the water pure investors and secured my own assets. That's how I think. Not willing to commit to the development's future I would be uninterested in the buyer.

Yes it's tricky but then again I would probably have to pay several million GBP in the UK for the same type of property. That's IMO what this is about. And it is hard work that carries risk, but not that much risk if you do your homework. That said if I were to do this again today I would only research the secondary market. Things are too uncertain.

Edited November 12, 2008 by pkrv

[MJP]

Condo's are not a long term investment surely?

I am going to take a guess from your statement that you know little of condominiums - I think your UK based we don't really have condominiums in the UK so much like me (also UK based) this is a steep learning curve.

This is much like the house market in the UK. If you buy a house on a cliff edge and next year it falls into the sea, perhaps that was not a good investment. Buy Buckingham Palace for 1 GBP override preservation orders, tear it down and endlessly build new homes sell it for squllions of GBP good investment (OK I'm being silly).

In an established well run condominium (we are not talking about the falling into the sea scenario here, it's a case of doing your homework) it could eventually age in say 100 years (I don't think I am going to be around then), and it becomes beyond viable economic 'repair'.

At this stage a meeting would be called and a majority decision would be made on selling it, tearing it down and rebuilding. Such a decision would only be made if your share of the land made it make commercial sense, would it not?

Apart from that things go up and things go down.

Please take a look at this web site - I could not do this on my own in the center of Bangkok and it show what is possible I don't know what else is out there.

http://www.theparkresidence.co.th/exterior.htm

A condominium is like a hotel room you own and can on sell just like a house, from penthouse suite to broom cupboard room, 1 star to 5/6/7+ star.

pkrv,

My brother, if you are happy and feel secure, this is the best one can expect from life. I'm not big on condo's and I'm not really that clued up on farang ownership.

Truth is, I like a garden.

Bought at the right price (many years ago) and if you want to live in a metropolitan area, it had to be the only real option.

Trouble is I guess I just love the simplicity of the boonies too much.

[pkrv]

Condo's are not a long term investment surely?

I am going to take a guess from your statement that you know little of condominiums - I think your UK based we don't really have condominiums in the UK so much like me (also UK based) this is a steep learning curve.

This is much like the house market in the UK. If you buy a house on a cliff edge and next year it falls into the sea, perhaps that was not a good investment. Buy Buckingham Palace for 1 GBP override preservation orders, tear it down and endlessly build new homes sell it for squllions of GBP good investment (OK I'm being silly).

In an established well run condominium (we are not talking about the falling into the sea scenario here, it's a case of doing your homework) it could eventually age in say 100 years (I don't think I am going to be around then), and it becomes beyond viable economic 'repair'.

At this stage a meeting would be called and a majority decision would be made on selling it, tearing it down and rebuilding. Such a decision would only be made if your share of the land made it make commercial sense, would it not?

Apart from that things go up and things go down.

Please take a look at this web site - I could not do this on my own in the center of Bangkok and it show what is possible I don't know what else is out there.

http://www.theparkresidence.co.th/exterior.htm

A condominium is like a hotel room you own and can on sell just like a house, from penthouse suite to broom cupboard room, 1 star to 5/6/7+ star.

pkrv,

My brother, if you are happy and feel secure, this is the best one can expect from life. I'm not big on condo's and I'm not really that clued up on farang ownership.

Truth is, I like a garden.

Bought at the right price (many years ago) and if you want to live in a metropolitan area, it had to be the only real option.

Trouble is I guess I just love the simplicity of the boonies too much.

Fair deal - Please stick to house and land ownership issues - IMO you are out of your league on condominium issues. It is very important not to confuse the two, so that we can all see what is happening from our own individual perspectives.

Edited November 12, 2008 by pkrv

[MJP]

Condo's are not a long term investment surely?

I am going to take a guess from your statement that you know little of condominiums - I think your UK based we don't really have condominiums in the UK so much like me (also UK based) this is a steep learning curve.

This is much like the house market in the UK. If you buy a house on a cliff edge and next year it falls into the sea, perhaps that was not a good investment. Buy Buckingham Palace for 1 GBP override preservation orders, tear it down and endlessly build new homes sell it for squllions of GBP good investment (OK I'm being silly).

In an established well run condominium (we are not talking about the falling into the sea scenario here, it's a case of doing your homework) it could eventually age in say 100 years (I don't think I am going to be around then), and it becomes beyond viable economic 'repair'.

At this stage a meeting would be called and a majority decision would be made on selling it, tearing it down and rebuilding. Such a decision would only be made if your share of the land made it make commercial sense, would it not?

Apart from that things go up and things go down.

Please take a look at this web site - I could not do this on my own in the center of Bangkok and it show what is possible I don't know what else is out there.

http://www.theparkresidence.co.th/exterior.htm

A condominium is like a hotel room you own and can on sell just like a house, from penthouse suite to broom cupboard room, 1 star to 5/6/7+ star.

pkrv,

My brother, if you are happy and feel secure, this is the best one can expect from life. I'm not big on condo's and I'm not really that clued up on farang ownership.

Truth is, I like a garden.

Bought at the right price (many years ago) and if you want to live in a metropolitan area, it had to be the only real option.

Trouble is I guess I just love the simplicity of the boonies too much.

Fair deal - Please stick to house and land ownership issues - IMO you are out of your league on condominium issues. It is very important not to confuse the two, so that we can all see what is happening from our own individual perspectives.

I will say that you seem overly defensive on this subject which raises the suspicion that you do not necessarily believe your own arguments. Thailand is not a safe place to invest. It is a fun place to live.

I'll leave it at that.

[pkrv]

Condo's are not a long term investment surely?

I am going to take a guess from your statement that you know little of condominiums - I think your UK based we don't really have condominiums in the UK so much like me (also UK based) this is a steep learning curve.

This is much like the house market in the UK. If you buy a house on a cliff edge and next year it falls into the sea, perhaps that was not a good investment. Buy Buckingham Palace for 1 GBP override preservation orders, tear it down and endlessly build new homes sell it for squllions of GBP good investment (OK I'm being silly).

In an established well run condominium (we are not talking about the falling into the sea scenario here, it's a case of doing your homework) it could eventually age in say 100 years (I don't think I am going to be around then), and it becomes beyond viable economic 'repair'.

At this stage a meeting would be called and a majority decision would be made on selling it, tearing it down and rebuilding. Such a decision would only be made if your share of the land made it make commercial sense, would it not?

Apart from that things go up and things go down.

Please take a look at this web site - I could not do this on my own in the center of Bangkok and it show what is possible I don't know what else is out there.

http://www.theparkresidence.co.th/exterior.htm

A condominium is like a hotel room you own and can on sell just like a house, from penthouse suite to broom cupboard room, 1 star to 5/6/7+ star.

pkrv,

My brother, if you are happy and feel secure, this is the best one can expect from life. I'm not big on condo's and I'm not really that clued up on farang ownership.

Truth is, I like a garden.

Bought at the right price (many years ago) and if you want to live in a metropolitan area, it had to be the only real option.

Trouble is I guess I just love the simplicity of the boonies too much.

Fair deal - Please stick to house and land ownership issues - IMO you are out of your league on condominium issues. It is very important not to confuse the two, so that we can all see what is happening from our own individual perspectives.

I will say that you seem overly defensive on this subject which raises the suspicion that you do not necessarily believe your own arguments. Thailand is not a safe place to invest. It is a fun place to live.

I'll leave it at that.

excelent we leave it at what? the guys who are working out how to support Thai families/children via land ownership or the farang/farangs who want to buy - pray please illuminate us.

[MJP]

Condo's are not a long term investment surely?

I am going to take a guess from your statement that you know little of condominiums - I think your UK based we don't really have condominiums in the UK so much like me (also UK based) this is a steep learning curve.

This is much like the house market in the UK. If you buy a house on a cliff edge and next year it falls into the sea, perhaps that was not a good investment. Buy Buckingham Palace for 1 GBP override preservation orders, tear it down and endlessly build new homes sell it for squllions of GBP good investment (OK I'm being silly).

In an established well run condominium (we are not talking about the falling into the sea scenario here, it's a case of doing your homework) it could eventually age in say 100 years (I don't think I am going to be around then), and it becomes beyond viable economic 'repair'.

At this stage a meeting would be called and a majority decision would be made on selling it, tearing it down and rebuilding. Such a decision would only be made if your share of the land made it make commercial sense, would it not?

Apart from that things go up and things go down.

Please take a look at this web site - I could not do this on my own in the center of Bangkok and it show what is possible I don't know what else is out there.

http://www.theparkresidence.co.th/exterior.htm

A condominium is like a hotel room you own and can on sell just like a house, from penthouse suite to broom cupboard room, 1 star to 5/6/7+ star.

pkrv,

My brother, if you are happy and feel secure, this is the best one can expect from life. I'm not big on condo's and I'm not really that clued up on farang ownership.

Truth is, I like a garden.

Bought at the right price (many years ago) and if you want to live in a metropolitan area, it had to be the only real option.

Trouble is I guess I just love the simplicity of the boonies too much.

Fair deal - Please stick to house and land ownership issues - IMO you are out of your league on condominium issues. It is very important not to confuse the two, so that we can all see what is happening from our own individual perspectives.

I will say that you seem overly defensive on this subject which raises the suspicion that you do not necessarily believe your own arguments. Thailand is not a safe place to invest. It is a fun place to live.

I'll leave it at that.

excelent we leave it at what? the guys who are working out how to support Thai families/children via land ownership or the farang/farangs who want to buy - pray please illuminate us.

Now you're becoming unreasonably angry. We really would not be having this conversation and you would certainly not be reaching for your blood pressure pills if you were not concerned over your 'investment'.

I support my family through paid work not land speculation.

I won't bother you again.

Good-bye.

[zorro1]

Condo's are not a long term investment surely?

I am going to take a guess from your statement that you know little of condominiums - I think your UK based we don't really have condominiums in the UK so much like me (also UK based) this is a steep learning curve.

This is much like the house market in the UK. If you buy a house on a cliff edge and next year it falls into the sea, perhaps that was not a good investment. Buy Buckingham Palace for 1 GBP override preservation orders, tear it down and endlessly build new homes sell it for squllions of GBP good investment (OK I'm being silly).

In an established well run condominium (we are not talking about the falling into the sea scenario here, it's a case of doing your homework) it could eventually age in say 100 years (I don't think I am going to be around then), and it becomes beyond viable economic 'repair'.

At this stage a meeting would be called and a majority decision would be made on selling it, tearing it down and rebuilding. Such a decision would only be made if your share of the land made it make commercial sense, would it not?

Apart from that things go up and things go down.

Please take a look at this web site - I could not do this on my own in the center of Bangkok and it show what is possible I don't know what else is out there.

http://www.theparkresidence.co.th/exterior.htm

A condominium is like a hotel room you own and can on sell just like a house, from penthouse suite to broom cupboard room, 1 star to 5/6/7+ star.

pkrv,

My brother, if you are happy and feel secure, this is the best one can expect from life. I'm not big on condo's and I'm not really that clued up on farang ownership.

Truth is, I like a garden.

Bought at the right price (many years ago) and if you want to live in a metropolitan area, it had to be the only real option.

Trouble is I guess I just love the simplicity of the boonies too much.

Fair deal - Please stick to house and land ownership issues - IMO you are out of your league on condominium issues. It is very important not to confuse the two, so that we can all see what is happening from our own individual perspectives.

I will say that you seem overly defensive on this subject which raises the suspicion that you do not necessarily believe your own arguments. Thailand is not a safe place to invest. It is a fun place to live.

I'll leave it at that.

you may wish to elaborate on where it is safe to invest, considering the current climate? Lets not kid ourselves we buy here because in comparison to any major country in the west its still dirt cheap. I live in BKK but I believe you can buy a brand new studio out pattaya way for around 1 mill bht. Around the price of a new family sedan in Oz

Edited November 12, 2008 by zorro1

[MJP]

Condo's are not a long term investment surely?

I am going to take a guess from your statement that you know little of condominiums - I think your UK based we don't really have condominiums in the UK so much like me (also UK based) this is a steep learning curve.

This is much like the house market in the UK. If you buy a house on a cliff edge and next year it falls into the sea, perhaps that was not a good investment. Buy Buckingham Palace for 1 GBP override preservation orders, tear it down and endlessly build new homes sell it for squllions of GBP good investment (OK I'm being silly).

In an established well run condominium (we are not talking about the falling into the sea scenario here, it's a case of doing your homework) it could eventually age in say 100 years (I don't think I am going to be around then), and it becomes beyond viable economic 'repair'.

At this stage a meeting would be called and a majority decision would be made on selling it, tearing it down and rebuilding. Such a decision would only be made if your share of the land made it make commercial sense, would it not?

Apart from that things go up and things go down.

Please take a look at this web site - I could not do this on my own in the center of Bangkok and it show what is possible I don't know what else is out there.

http://www.theparkresidence.co.th/exterior.htm

A condominium is like a hotel room you own and can on sell just like a house, from penthouse suite to broom cupboard room, 1 star to 5/6/7+ star.

pkrv,

My brother, if you are happy and feel secure, this is the best one can expect from life. I'm not big on condo's and I'm not really that clued up on farang ownership.

Truth is, I like a garden.

Bought at the right price (many years ago) and if you want to live in a metropolitan area, it had to be the only real option.

Trouble is I guess I just love the simplicity of the boonies too much.

Fair deal - Please stick to house and land ownership issues - IMO you are out of your league on condominium issues. It is very important not to confuse the two, so that we can all see what is happening from our own individual perspectives.

I will say that you seem overly defensive on this subject which raises the suspicion that you do not necessarily believe your own arguments. Thailand is not a safe place to invest. It is a fun place to live.

I'll leave it at that.

you may wish to elaborate on where it is safe to invest, considering the current climate? Lets not kid ourselves we buy here because in comparison to any major country in the west its still dirt cheap. I live in BKK but I believe you can buy a brand new studio out pattaya way for around 1 mill bht. Around the price of a new family sedan in Oz

Cash is most certainly King.

[zorro1]

Its a predator's market.

[MJP]

Its a predator's market.

Not quite yet. Just wait 12 months. All those bizarrely leveraged asset 'values' will come down to reality.

Fred Harrison (Director of the Land Research Trust) had it spot on in his book 'Boom Bust: House Prices, Banking and the Depression of 2010. 18 year cycle, 12 years up, 6 years down.

Perhaps this will be a little more protracted. We are likely entering a Kondratiev Winter (depression phase of a K-wave).

[quiksilva]

This is not a functioning mature property market as you might be used to in the West. You assume that banks can foreclose quickly here just as they do back home.

I hope that they can, as it will repair this dysfunctional market, but experience of recent years suggests otherwise.

[midas]

This is not a functioning mature property market as you might be used to in the West. You assume that banks can foreclose quickly here just as they do back home.

I hope that they can, as it will repair this dysfunctional market, but experience of recent years suggests otherwise.

But the alternative sounds like stagnation and that surely can't be good either because it suggests

we would be back into the era of nonperforming assets possibly for very long time?

[pkrv]

OK I think there is a lot of confusion here, and please don't be put out because until recently I too did not realise how finance works.

Do any of you guys know about the 'Fractional Reserve System (FRS)' don't be embarrassed if you don't neither did I, and I worked in Financial Markets globally responsible for some of the products that conduct world trade (Reuters).

Essentially if you go to any bank anywhere in the world and ask for a mortgage of say 100,000. That money is not given to you from the bank's reserves or others savings. Instead it is conjured into existence and written into your account; this is why the money pool continuously grows. Essentially the only thing of value in the transaction is your commitment to repay, and the bank gets to charge interest on money it does not actually have. Staggering isn't it? Please take a look at this very informative 'film' the guy goes into much more detail and explains how this came about. He has his own thoughts part way through but it is worth watching to the end (45 minutes).

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-9050474362583451279

The FRS generates something like 95% of all cash in circulation and it is a system designed to grow, and grow it does, but exponentially. Not good news.

A paradox -The FRS actually breaks down if people do not borrow money. So if you are informed that there is a credit crunch actually people are talking crap! What they are really saying is that credit worthy people are no longer borrowing hence the subprime market – you have to lend to someone to create the money in everybody's pocket. Just as an anecdote my dad (long retired) walked into a bank the other day just to do bank stuff and was immediately offered a loan by a sheepish person behind the till saying you probably don't need this but I can lend you 50k GBP. My dad just laughed.

The point here is that the system cannot cope with an aging population – most people are actually quite good with money and seek to ensure that they do not enter retirement in debt because their income stream is 'somewhat diminished'.

Now if I am correct in my analysis and please crucify me if I am wrong (no one has done so on the finance forum so far including naam)

The subprime market was most probably 'invoked' solely to keep the FRS going for vested interests – our money was effectively deliberately blown.

Because we are an aging population many of us have shrugged off debt and as such FRS is well and truly screwed.

But more importantly it also indicates that people have money/assets.

Now some say cash is king – true, but only to a point. Interest rates are collapsing and inflation is accelerating, cash will rapidly become worthless, and I have a thread on this on the finance forum. And by the way this is also contributing the the current crisis your not meant to have cash your meant to have debt otherwise you screw the FRS

Today I do need cash reserves to live on, but if I still had substantial cash reserves I would be pooing my pants at this time, where would I park it? Well I have already put my money where my mouth is and IMO done OK – I do not doubt for one moment many others (with money and there are a lot of them) will come to the same conclusion . However they will probably look to the secondary market and contrary to popular belief there is one in Thailand.

Please give me hel_l because I hope that I am not correct – otherwise things will become very ugly indeed.

Edited November 13, 2008 by pkrv

[quiksilva]

This is not a functioning mature property market as you might be used to in the West. You assume that banks can foreclose quickly here just as they do back home.

I hope that they can, as it will repair this dysfunctional market, but experience of recent years suggests otherwise.

But the alternative sounds like stagnation and that surely can't be good either because it suggests

we would be back into the era of nonperforming assets possibly for very long time?

I agree, and believe me, nobody wants to see more volatility in the market than me. Pure brokers don't make much money in stagnant markets...(and that goes for broking any product).

(edit: just to add, not that I only engage in brokerage activity, thankfully I do a lot of consulting work, and am by no means pure )

Edited November 13, 2008 by quiksilva

[pkrv]

This is not a functioning mature property market as you might be used to in the West. You assume that banks can foreclose quickly here just as they do back home.

I hope that they can, as it will repair this dysfunctional market, but experience of recent years suggests otherwise.

But the alternative sounds like stagnation and that surely can't be good either because it suggests

we would be back into the era of nonperforming assets possibly for very long time?

I agree, and believe me, nobody wants to see more volatility in the market than me. Pure brokers don't make much money in stagnant markets...(and that goes for broking any product).

(edit: just to add, not that I only engage in brokerage activity, thankfully I do a lot of consulting work, and am by no means pure )

You know what that statement is what I would expect in todays market and the implications of the FRS failing. All assets are falling in value including cash. That Thailand's 'property' (house/land condominium) market may remain flat is an interesting and not unexpected prospect - wealth preservation comes to mind.