2008 Thailand Inbound Tourism Statistics

[LaoPo]

2008 THAILAND INBOUND tourism statistics

Is tourism declining ?

TAT doesn't supply the tourist numbers anymore. It is now in the hands of the Office of Tourism Development* see below.

However, reading those statistics has become a pain and much more difficult to 'read' than in the period with TAT.

For 2008 they have divided the INBOUND tourists into 2 categories:

1. INTERNATIONAL TOURIST ARRIVALS TO THAILAND BY NATIONALITY - all airports, borders, ships, trains etc.

2. INTERNATIONAL TOURIST ARRIVALS TO THAILAND BY NATIONALITY AT SUVARNABHUMI AIRPORT

There is also detailed -but not up to date- data for the various regions in Thailand, called: Guest Arrivals at Accommodation Establishments IN THAILAND

And there is some info about numbers to tourist attractions, whatever/where ever they are.

All in all complicated to read, especially if you look at their website...

Anyway, for the JAN-MARCH numbers by Nationality they still supplied the percentages versus 2007.

AFTER that period they stopped supplying the numbers versus 2007......one could wonder WHY ?

The numbers for 2007 are still available (old TAT numbers) but have to be checked page-by-page....be my guest

2008 International Tourist Arrivals to Thailand by NATIONALITY: (all airports, borders, ships, trains etc.)

JAN-MARCH by Nationality: 4.206.231 up 9.79% versus 2007 with 3.831.089

APRIL-JUNE by Nationality : 3.460.915

JULY-SEPT by Nationality: not available yet

2008 International Tourist Arrivals to Thailand by Nationality at SUVARNABHUMI:

JAN-MARCH: 3.099.662

APRIL-JUNE: 2.523.457

JULY-SEPT.: 2.147.631

All info from:

* http://www.tourism.go.th/index.php?option=...0&Itemid=25

Here you can find all statistics from 1997 to 2007 and for 2008 in part.

Note:

It is very difficult to read and compare the 3-months/quarterly periods in 2008 versus 2007 because those periods for 2007 are not available; just the full-year-numbers unless someone wants to look them up in the old TAT website, which is still there to my best of knowledge.

Also: we should not forget that in the total numbers for 2008 but also for previous years there are quite high numbers of so-called tourists from neighboring countries like Malaysia, Burma, Laos, Cambodia. Malaysia alone was 'good' for 1,5 Million 'tourists' in 2007.

The question is: are they real tourists or (part) guest workers looking for -illegal or not- jobs ?

It is not to be neglected that in the tourist statistics are high numbers of repeat tourists, visiting neighboring countries , returning to Thailand as well as VISA-border runners.

Those numbers are impossible to 'read' as they are officially not known but certainly included in the total INBOUND tourism numbers.

LaoPo

Edited November 9, 2008 by LaoPo

[geriatrickid]

Reporting of numbers in this format seems intended to confuse the reader. Someone is not easily fooled and I like this line;

Also: we should not forget that in the total numbers for 2008 but also for previous years there are quite high numbers of so-called tourists from neighboring countries like Malaysia, Burma, Laos, Cambodia. Malaysia alone was 'good' for 1,5 Million 'tourists'.

The question is: are they tourists or (part) guest workers looking for -illegal or not- jobs ?

Whatever reason for coming the neighbouring visitors make for good padding. Sort of like when the 12 year old girls used to stuff the bra with tissue.

Good eye for detail you have there.

[davejonesbkk]

A friend one mine was on Koh Tao last week and he said it was dead, which he of course loved. I suppose it's just the start of the high season though, but he also said that when he talked to staff and business owners there they said it was dead last year too. I thought last year tourism did well as it had actually been growing for the last few years?

[Koo82]

Shall the PAD block a few airports for a day or 2 and make some street walks in BKK again (they didn't walk but were on the trucks right?)? We'll see number of tourist increases.

[LivinLOS]

Didnt the TAT numbers give a 30% drop off in some press release earlier in the year ?? If memory serves that may have been a patts specific number..

[animatic]

I viable number would be tourists from international flights into the major tourist airports.

This is verifiable and would reflect returns.

It would of course have some Thais going and coming too.

There has to be a data base of international passport numbers entering LOS.

Bulk number would be available and averaged vs tourist hotel numbers would give a reference too.

Anything based on hotel room numbers vs occupancy rates is spurious,

since in some locations, like Patong, room NUMBERS have increased 30%,

so no relative increase or decrease of people can be assumed.

If the numbers bodies in hotel rooms for last year is counted

vs the SAME number of ROOMS this year, excluding NEW rooms,

then there might be some validity.

Koos, PAD blocking a few airports didn't affect tourism

nearly as much as Oil and plane fare prices.

That was a minor blip in the scale of things.

[sgunn65]

I went to Hua Hin last weekend and from what I saw most places were pretty dead. The hotel we stayed in, admittedly high end, had about three rooms occupied. The only places that seemed to be doing well were the cheaper eating places. Admittedly we are only at the start of the season but it didn't look good.

In Kanchaniburi the bars were very quiet this week but busier than throughout the summer. One of the bar owners told me that they were doing well and they had 5 customers including me in at the time.

[BEENTHEREDONETHAT]

I wonder what percentage of those tourist are visa runs for the regulars?

[bkkjames]

Best place to get a sense is through hotel bookings or occupancy rates.

As we are talking about 'tourists', this would rule out expats / those doing multiple visa runs.

One would think by visiting http://www.thaihotels.org/ - the Thai hotel associations website we could find some accurate independent stats but

Or one could visit Pata's website for intelligence

http://www.pata.org/patasite/index.php?id=111

Seems everyone is hush hush, I wonder why.

[bkkjames]

Leave it to good old www.ttrweekly to provide us with some current info. Granted, not only about Thailand, but does offer some idea of what may lay ahead....and yes it states basically what we already believed to be happening.

From bad to worse in 2009

13 November 2008 11:09

Category: News

UNWTO project 2% arrival growth at the year-end.

The latest edition of the UNWTO World Tourism Barometer confirms the rapid slowdown of international tourism growth since mid-2008, reflecting the impact of rising oil prices earlier in the year, an economic recession, and failing consumer confidence in recent months.

Overall growth for 2008, however, is still projected at around 2%, building on the strong results of the first five months.

UNWTO stated in the recent report, that after a sound start to the year (international tourist arrivals worldwide averaged 5.7% from January-April), growth fell below 2% in June, July and August as the high price of oil and rising inflation took their toll and, together with recession fears, squeezed travel budgets.

For the first eight months of 2008, growth averaged 3.7% compared with the same period in 2007, while for the year as a whole it is now projected to be around 2% globally.

As the current troubled economic scenario is expected to continue into 2009, UNWTO’s initial forecast for next year is for an even more modest performance.

According to the report Asia and the Pacific was the region whose growth has deteriorated most rapidly so far, after 18 consecutive months of sustained growth, declining from March onwards and even sliding into negative growth in August.

The Barometer identifies the trends that Asia and the Pacific’s growth (+4%) is also well behind its 2007 level, with Oceania and North-East Asia suffering the brunt of the downturn in demand.

The report stated, Europe currently stands at +2% for the first eight months of 2008 (well down from the 5% growth of the last two years), and the slowdown has not spared any of its four subregions.

The Americas has so far performed better than in 2007 with +6% through the first eight months. The region appears to have only experienced a modest slowdown in July and August.

Meanwhile, the Middle East is once again the star performer in 2008 so far, with growth for the period January through August estimated at 17%. Data is still limited, though, which may lead to the need for a revision of this estimate.

The report stated, the economic downturn, combined with the current uncertainties, extreme market volatility and a decline in both consumer and business confidence, are expected to continue taking their toll on demand for tourism – at least in the short to medium term.

“Many businesses are expected to retrench, and any such retrenchment will be quickly felt in consumer markets. Given the current stress on many companies’ balance sheets, business travel is also expected to be more adversely impacted than the leisure segment.

Unlike previous crises such as with 9/11 and SARS, the current downturn does not affect the desire to travel. The major concern is about whether one can afford to travel, or whether one wants to spend money on travel given the uncertain economic situation,” stated the UNWTO.

[jts-khorat]

Didnt the TAT numbers give a 30% drop off in some press release earlier in the year ?? If memory serves that may have been a patts specific number..

From the Phuket Gazette and the Phuket Tourist Association, the drop seems to be over 30%. We are talking about absolute peak season for Phuket here and the PTA assumes that hotels will be only half full. This is actually bordering on the scary:

Phuket Tourist Association (PTA) Vice-President Bhuritt Maswongsa told the Gazette that current occupancy rates and bookings from now until the end of the year should result in an island-wide average occupancy rate of about 55% compared to 80% for the same period last year.

[bkkjames]

Didnt the TAT numbers give a 30% drop off in some press release earlier in the year ?? If memory serves that may have been a patts specific number..

From the Phuket Gazette and the Phuket Tourist Association, the drop seems to be over 30%. We are talking about absolute peak season for Phuket here and the PTA assumes that hotels will be only half full. This is actually bordering on the scary:

Phuket Tourist Association (PTA) Vice-President Bhuritt Maswongsa told the Gazette that current occupancy rates and bookings from now until the end of the year should result in an island-wide average occupancy rate of about 55% compared to 80% for the same period last year.

Yes it is scary, yet when I try book a room in Phuket, it seems that despite these dire in-bound numbers, the hotels are still demanding top dollar. Example, hotels in Kata that charge 1500 baht a night in Nov, have jumped their rates to over 5000 baht per night starting in Dec. High season I know, but that only applies when there actually is one.

Needless to say, I didn't book any rooms in Phuket for the upcoming long weekend in Dec.

[midas]

I viable number would be tourists from international flights into the major tourist airports.

This is verifiable and would reflect returns.

It would of course have some Thais going and coming too.

There has to be a data base of international passport numbers entering LOS.

Bulk number would be available and averaged vs tourist hotel numbers would give a reference too.

But what about the people that may have made Thailand their only destination for their

holiday in the old days but who now stay one or two days and then go on to

Cambodia , Nepal, Vietnam,Laos, Burma etc. and spend the bulk of their time

in those countries. This could give a very distorted picture of the continued success

or otherwise of Thailand as a leading destination because they don't spend much money here?

[jeffer]

The last few flights I've arrived on back in to Bangkok have been nowhere near full with the last Thai Airways international flight I was on being less than 25% full. I can't recall the last time I was on an international flight so empty, maybe a MAS Bangkok-Singapore flight during the SARS crisis. I can tell you that the airport blockade in Phuket upset a lot of people, I have heard some say they will be looking elsewhere next vacation as some of the stuff that went on at the time was not pleasant when all you want to do is get on your flight home.

[johnwills]

Somebody told me that every time I leave the country (every 3 months) to do a border run, they add my return to the stats of incoming tourists even though I am on a Non O visa and living here full time. Anyone know if this is true?

[simon43]

My (ex-wife's!) hotel at Phuket is full tonight, as it was last night. The current room-rate of 2,500 baht per night doesn't seem to put anyone off. As for peak season around Xmas, we are already fully booked on many of those days.

I do believe that tourist numbers are down, and maybe we are lucky with our 'niche' market by the airport. In Patong, it's a buyers' market as many hotels are competing and cutting their prices.

BTW, if you think our room-rate is high, it is the cheapest in this locality! Other hotels nearby are charging 3,600 baht per night up to 12,000 baht per night - and still getting customers.

Simon

[tmd5855]

Friend who has a restuarant/small hotel was always booked full by now with repeat visitors for accom and his daily golf outings. This year he has empty rooms and has dropped the advertised price for rooms, back to the low season amount.

Said, the guys selling watches are hurting, may be people on the streets, but no hands in pockets

[LaoPo]

I viable number would be 1. tourists from international flights into the major tourist airports.

This is verifiable and would reflect returns.

2. It would of course have some Thais going and coming too.

3. There has to be a data base of international passport numbers entering LOS.

Bulk number would be available and averaged vs tourist hotel numbers would give a reference too.

Obviously, you didn't read and/or study the first OP, it's numbers and website link very well.

1. the numbers of inbound foreign tourists to Suvarnabhumi are known and the number for TOTAL inbound tourists to the various ports of entry (borders) are also known -and published-

2. Thai are excluded in those numbers, as mentioned in the website.

3. See # 1; of course there is, but as I wrote the new numbers and figures are very hard to 'read' since the numbers were transferred, away from TAT.

LaoPo

Edited November 14, 2008 by LaoPo

[Underdog]

From a laymans point of view, I wouldn't expect it to be increasing, in fact, given the current situation. politically and economically, I think the word "fuc_kED" is appropriate to Thailands tourist economy!

[Ulysses G.]

Underdog knows of what he speaks.

[Bangyai]

You would think that over the Christmas period places like Pattaya will still be pretty busy. This is because , in the past, anyone wanting to be here over Christmas and the new year has had to book well in advance....almost a year, if they wanted to be sure of a seat. The real crunch is likely to come around February onwards. Thats when the tourist arrivals are more likely to nosedive.

[neil324]

You would think that over the Christmas period places like Pattaya will still be pretty busy. This is because , in the past, anyone wanting to be here over Christmas and the new year has had to book well in advance....almost a year, if they wanted to be sure of a seat. The real crunch is likely to come around February onwards. Thats when the tourist arrivals are more likely to nosedive.

Very true indeed, but those that do come will so with a reduced bugdet because of poor exchange rates and as a result change habits. I expect next year unless the exchange rate changes then tourism will drop dramatically.

[LaoPo]

You would think that over the Christmas period places like Pattaya will still be pretty busy. This is because , in the past, anyone wanting to be here over Christmas and the new year has had to book well in advance....almost a year, if they wanted to be sure of a seat. The real crunch is likely to come around February onwards. Thats when the tourist arrivals are more likely to nosedive.

The point is that nobody knows if the airlines cut their no. of flights to LOS or not and thus limiting the available no. of seats. We, farang are always thinking about western tourism but Asian tourism to LOS makes the majority.

But it is indeed likely that the real blow will come after the upcoming holiday season.

With the whole world being already in or nearing a recession and a possible depression it doesn't look good tor Thailand's tourism and economy as a whole. Bad exchange rates is just one of the reasons tourists will stay away.

LaoPo

[Underdog]

You would think that over the Christmas period places like Pattaya will still be pretty busy. This is because , in the past, anyone wanting to be here over Christmas and the new year has had to book well in advance....almost a year, if they wanted to be sure of a seat. The real crunch is likely to come around February onwards. Thats when the tourist arrivals are more likely to nosedive.

The point is that nobody knows if the airlines cut their no. of flights to LOS or not and thus limiting the available no. of seats. We, farang are always thinking about western tourism but Asian tourism to LOS makes the majority.

But it is indeed likely that the real blow will come after the upcoming holiday season.

With the whole world being already in or nearing a recession and a possible depression it doesn't look good tor Thailand's tourism and economy as a whole. Bad exchange rates is just one of the reasons tourists will stay away.

LaoPo

Do you really believe that the tourist decline is due to the airlines cutting their schedules to Thailand? Jesus! NO One wants to come to a country on the brink of CIVIL WAR, where the bars are closed due to some "death in the family" People are voting with their feet! The country is going down and big time!You believe that there are ques forming at the check in counters trying to buy tickets to come here, and the only reason they can't is because the flight schedules have been cut????? I think the flights have been cut because they cannot put asses on the seats...

Edited November 14, 2008 by Underdog

[LaoPo]

You would think that over the Christmas period places like Pattaya will still be pretty busy. This is because , in the past, anyone wanting to be here over Christmas and the new year has had to book well in advance....almost a year, if they wanted to be sure of a seat. The real crunch is likely to come around February onwards. Thats when the tourist arrivals are more likely to nosedive.

The point is that nobody knows if the airlines cut their no. of flights to LOS or not and thus limiting the available no. of seats. We, farang are always thinking about western tourism but Asian tourism to LOS makes the majority.

But it is indeed likely that the real blow will come after the upcoming holiday season.

With the whole world being already in or nearing a recession and a possible depression it doesn't look good tor Thailand's tourism and economy as a whole. Bad exchange rates is just one of the reasons tourists will stay away.

LaoPo

Do you really believe that the tourist decline is due to the airlines cutting their schedules to Thailand? Jesus! NO One wants to come to a country on the brink of CIVIL WAR, where the bars are closed due to some "death in the family" People are voting with their feet! The country is going down and big time!You believe that there are ques forming at the check in counters trying to buy tickets to come here, and the only reason they can't is because the flight schedules have been cut????? I think the flights have been cut because they cannot put asses on the seats...

Chicken or egg...?

LaoPo

[mahtin]

Bad exchange rates is just one of the reasons tourists will stay away.

LaoPo

I won't stay away but it sure makes me change my habits.

[Livinginexile]

My (ex-wife's!) hotel at Phuket is full tonight, as it was last night. The current room-rate of 2,500 baht per night doesn't seem to put anyone off. As for peak season around Xmas, we are already fully booked on many of those days.

I do believe that tourist numbers are down, and maybe we are lucky with our 'niche' market by the airport. In Patong, it's a buyers' market as many hotels are competing and cutting their prices.

BTW, if you think our room-rate is high, it is the cheapest in this locality! Other hotels nearby are charging 3,600 baht per night up to 12,000 baht per night - and still getting customers.

Simon

Simon...I'm confused.

I've been reading over some of your past post. You write about needing a job. Trying to get Teaching English jobs, another recent post you are talking about going back to the UK to work for a while and save up some money and come back!!

But then you also write about "My hotel" and "allways full".

Is it your hotel or not?

Did you buy the hotel in your ex wifes name?

Do you have a partnership arrangement?

Do you recieve income?

Or have you been Rodgered like so many other Farangs that come to Thailand?

Have you done your money?

Whats the story dude?

[IMA_FARANG]

2008 THAILAND INBOUND tourism statistics

Is tourism declining ?

TAT doesn't supply the tourist numbers anymore. It is now in the hands of the Office of Tourism Development* see below.

However, reading those statistics has become a pain and much more difficult to 'read' than in the period with TAT.

For 2008 they have divided the INBOUND tourists into 2 categories:

1. INTERNATIONAL TOURIST ARRIVALS TO THAILAND BY NATIONALITY - all airports, borders, ships, trains etc.

2. INTERNATIONAL TOURIST ARRIVALS TO THAILAND BY NATIONALITY AT SUVARNABHUMI AIRPORT

There is also detailed -but not up to date- data for the various regions in Thailand, called: Guest Arrivals at Accommodation Establishments IN THAILAND

And there is some info about numbers to tourist attractions, whatever/where ever they are.

All in all complicated to read, especially if you look at their website...

Anyway, for the JAN-MARCH numbers by Nationality they still supplied the percentages versus 2007.

AFTER that period they stopped supplying the numbers versus 2007......one could wonder WHY ?

The numbers for 2007 are still available (old TAT numbers) but have to be checked page-by-page....be my guest

2008 International Tourist Arrivals to Thailand by NATIONALITY: (all airports, borders, ships, trains etc.)

JAN-MARCH by Nationality: 4.206.231 up 9.79% versus 2007 with 3.831.089

APRIL-JUNE by Nationality : 3.460.915

JULY-SEPT by Nationality: not available yet

2008 International Tourist Arrivals to Thailand by Nationality at SUVARNABHUMI:

JAN-MARCH: 3.099.662

APRIL-JUNE: 2.523.457

JULY-SEPT.: 2.147.631

All info from:

* http://www.tourism.go.th/index.php?option=...0&Itemid=25

Here you can find all statistics from 1997 to 2007 and for 2008 in part.

Note:

It is very difficult to read and compare the 3-months/quarterly periods in 2008 versus 2007 because those periods for 2007 are not available; just the full-year-numbers unless someone wants to look them up in the old TAT website, which is still there to my best of knowledge.

Also: we should not forget that in the total numbers for 2008 but also for previous years there are quite high numbers of so-called tourists from neighboring countries like Malaysia, Burma, Laos, Cambodia. Malaysia alone was 'good' for 1,5 Million 'tourists' in 2007.

The question is: are they real tourists or (part) guest workers looking for -illegal or not- jobs ?

It is not to be neglected that in the tourist statistics are high numbers of repeat tourists, visiting neighboring countries , returning to Thailand as well as VISA-border runners.

Those numbers are impossible to 'read' as they are officially not known but certainly included in the total INBOUND tourism numbers.

LaoPo

As Winston Churchill was supposed to have said,"There are 3 types of lies; lies, dammed lies, and statistics."

You can make statistics read just about any way you want them to, if you just manipulate the figures properly.

I'm sure, however, that this "high season" will be a low tourist period, simply because many people are going to take any holiday they have closer to home. The money they would spend to take a exotic Asian vacation, is going for other things this year.

It is all down to the "temporary economic downturn" as the optomists like to call it. Anyone who has a vacation planned will take it closer to home than flying halfway across the world this year.

[LaoPo]

As Winston Churchill was supposed to have said,"There are 3 types of lies; lies, dammed lies, and statistics."

You can make statistics read just about any way you want them to, if you just manipulate the figures properly.

There might be some truth in those words but what would we do without statistics ?

I have always said that the inbound tourism statistics in Thailand were to be taken with many grains of salt...and I mentioned that also in the OP.

If Thailand says that there were/are 14 -inbound- million tourists I would think that reality is closer to 8 or 9 million REAL tourists.

The difference between 14 million and 8 or 9 million is due to the traffick from neighbouring countries (Malaysia alone is good for 1,5 million 'tourists', most of them via southern borders), expats doing visa-runs, tourists entering the country multiple times and repeat tourists.

Everyone of them is counted (again) as a tourist.

That adds up

LaoPo

[on-on]

On another note, the data seems to confirm the impression that the Russian are, in fact, coming in greater numbers.