High-season Tourism Outlook Bleak

[geriatrickid]

Is it possible the visitor stats are inflated because of double/triple counting? Eg. I flew in from TPE, then off to KUL, back to BKK for a couple days, then to SIN, then back, then off to TPE and to return shortly. In the space of 2 months, I will have shown up as a foreign visitor 4X when I am the same guy and should be shown as 1X.

There have also been a large number of foreign naval visits in the past year (US, AUS, Indian and others) all allowed shore leave. I think there were about 400 US sailors allowed shore leave into Patong 1 1/2 weeks ago. They were also in Pattaya. 400 became 800 pretty quickly. Stuff like that can skew results. And of course, you have all the cross border visits as was pointed out by a few people. Day trips back and forth on the borders that has to inflate the numbers too. 1 person crossing every week for a year, would be good for 52 visits.

[Scott]

But the reentry situation has remained a constant through the years. All the people on tourist visas, many for several years, are going in an out of the country.

If anything the immigration rules that have resulted in more difficulty for people to stay here may have lessened the problem.

[Beacher]

As long as there are 20 somethings, they will go on their rites of passage traveling the globe, whether it be with backpacks or using daddy's credit cards.

It's a pity for Thailand that those in power have been trying so hard to discourage the young backpacker types from coming here. Actually, it seems they've trying to turn off all young travelers -- doing things like hauling them out of bars in Pattaya and making them sit in the street waiting for a urine test to see of they have taken any drugs. The young adventurous travelers are the type that built Thai tourism to be one of the country's most important money makers, but we've been hearing for ages that Thailand doesn't really want them anymore because they don't spend enough money -- would rather have only upper class or family visitors.

Also, perhaps the escalation of scams and violent crime aimed at tourists is catching up to the Thai tourism industry. I certainly have the impression that nothing real is being done in either case, and I suspect that more and more people are catching on to this. After all, the dissemination of information is getting wider and faster all the time, so when a country and its policies deteriorate (as Thailand's have) and make for a less appealing or more dangerous trip, people will know and choose to stay away.

Unfortunately, this country doesn't seem to learn from its mistakes, and the damaging importance of "saving face" means that people can't make changes or progress.

Edited November 17, 2008 by Beacher

[animatic]

As long as there are 20 somethings, they will go on their rites of passage traveling the globe, whether it be with backpacks or using daddy's credit cards.

It's a pity for Thailand that those in power have been trying so hard to discourage the young backpacker types from coming here. Actually, it seems they've trying to turn off all young travelers -- doing things like hauling them out of bars in Pattaya and making them sit in the street waiting for a urine test to see of they have taken any drugs. The young adventurous travelers are the type that built Thai tourism to be one of the country's most important money makers, but we've been hearing for ages that Thailand doesn't really want them anymore because they don't spend enough money -- would rather have only upper class or family visitors.

Also, perhaps the escalation of scams and violent crime aimed at tourists is catching up to the Thai tourism industry. I certainly have the impression that nothing real is being done in either case, and I suspect that more and more people are catching on to this. After all, the dissemination of information is getting wider and faster all the time, so when a country and its policies deteriorate (as Thailand's have) and make for a less appealing or more dangerous trip, people will know and choose to stay away.

Unfortunately, this country doesn't seem to learn from its mistakes, and the damaging importance of "saving face" means that people can't make changes or progress.

There seems to be an all too large percentage of all of this in the equasion.

People who back pack often and intelegent and adventurous and become well to do when that energy gets re-applied back home,

5-10 years down the line they suddenly are Thjailand's "Ideal Tourist", who goes somewhere else,

because Thailand turned them off when they were younger.

How many long term expats came back again and again after a back packing first visit?

A lot in my estimation.

[sbk]

There are backpackers in Pattaya? I live on backpacker island and I know for a fact that very very few of our guests would even consider Pattaya.

[animatic]

There are backpackers in Pattaya? I live on backpacker island and I know for a fact that very very few of our guests would even consider Pattaya.

Backpackers actually come for the culture and/or dancing till dawn,

and much less the culture of bargirls and drinking binges.

Pataya ain't on their radar much.

[sriracha john]

Tourist arrivals plummet in Thailand

Thailand's high season for tourism has just begun and runs to February, but the signs for one of Southeast Asia's top tourism destinations are worrying.

Sitting outside his Thai kickboxing equipment shop in Bangkok, Soombut Yinglap says he has a plan for coping with the global financial downturn -- eat less and hope the tourists eventually arrive. "Now there are not many tourists. Before in the high season it would be full," he told AFP, gesturing to the nearly empty pavement where vendors try to sell holiday-makers everything from fake DVDs to knuckle dusters.

"I cannot do anything, just wait and see. Eat little, spend little -- try and save some money," the 37-year-old said outside his shop selling shorts, shin pads, and headguards in the downtown Nana district.

Up the road at Boss Avenue tailor shop, 28-year-old Peter Geri says his store will cope by marketing cheaper fabrics. Fewer tourists in need of a new suit are coming through his doors this year, a slowdown he blames on "the business crash down all around the world".

Rising fuel costs pushed international arrivals at Bangkok's main airport down to about 600,000 in August -- a 33 percent drop from a year earlier after a jump of 5.5 percent in July, Ministry of Tourism figures show.

In September, arrivals were down 21 percent, and industry experts say numbers are expected to remain low as the global credit crunch prompts consumers worried about their jobs and mortgages to stay at home.

"We will probably have a very bad high season," said Oliver Martin of industry body the Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA). "You're going to have it across the board. It's going to be everyone -- from the luxury resort right down to a small tour operator, a mom-and-pop shop, or a restaurant," he added.

Thailand is suffering from what Martin calls a "double whammy," as bloody anti-government street protests in Bangkok also make the news worldwide, worrying potential holiday-makers.

Adding to the woes, a territorial dispute with Cambodia erupted into a deadly firefight in October affecting border arrivals, while a separatist bomb attack injured 74 people near Thailand's frontier with Malaysia.

Kongkirt Hiranyakit, Chairman of government body the Tourism Council of Thailand, warned that the perfect storm of factors could lead to the loss of up to 70,000 tourism industry jobs. An estimated one million people work in the tourism business and around 700,000 in small and medium enterprises, he said, adding: "The current crisis could hit around 10 percent of those or around 60,000 to 70,000 people."

Although the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) has been trying to lure luxury travellers, seen as more immune to global downturns, one of the problems with that strategy is that the kingdom still relies on mass-market package tourists, Martin said. "This is your middle-income and middle-class market and this is very much the market that's been affected by their mortgages, potential jobs losses," he said.

PATA had forecast Thai tourist growth at four to five percent this year. The first nine months of the year were on track, but now the group is expecting growth to fall to about two or three percent.

Tourism businesses will also be lowering prices to lure thrifty holiday-makers, which may keep numbers steady but impact profit.

From the small stallholders at Nana to the five-star resorts stringing Thailand's beaches, businesses are finding ways to cope.

Debbie Dionysius, marketing director at Laguna Phuket, a resort complex on the southern holiday isle, said they had seen a 12 percent slowdown in revenue so far in the last quarter of 2008 compared to last year. To counter falling numbers from long-haul destinations such as Europe and the United States, the company is looking to the Middle East and China. "The economies of these regions have not experienced the same impact from the downturn as western economies, and potentially serve as more positive markets," she said.

The TAT, meanwhile, is trying to entice tourists from Southeast Asian markets like Singapore and Malaysia, which have so far managed to avoid any serious impact from the financial woes.

- AFP / 2008-11-17

Edited November 18, 2008 by sriracha john

[moo9]

There are backpackers in Pattaya? I live on backpacker island and I know for a fact that very very few of our guests would even consider Pattaya.

Thanks Buddha I would say.

[Johpa]

The young adventurous travelers are the type that built Thai tourism to be one of the country's most important money makers, but we've been hearing for ages that Thailand doesn't really want them anymore because they don't spend enough money -- would rather have only upper class or family visitors.

I would imagine that a budget backpacker staying for 60 days spends about the same amount as an ordinary middle class tourist who stays for 10 days. The issue is that they tend not to spend their money at places owned by the powers that be. Of course when the powerful see that there is money to be made somewhere, they begin to flex their muscles and "purchase" land and upgrade the facilities and infrastructure, but only after the backpackers and intrepid local entrepreneurs lead the way. I saw this happen in Phuket in the early 1980s (when some MP somehow purchased the public land at Nai Harn and turned it into the Phuket Yacht Club or something silly like that), then saw it happen in Samui in the late 1980s, and also to some extent up in Chiang Mai during that same period, and then on Koh Phangan in the later 1990s, and we see the same progression happening now up north in Pai.

I would imagine that once Pai is upgrgaded the backpackers will seek new destinations. The question is whether those destinations due to be built up over the coming decade will be in Thailand or whether Thailand will stagnate as those younger folks move elsewhere. I think the question has already been answered and the new locations with future potential for tourism in Southeast Asia will not be in Thailand. They are now in Muang Lao and in Vietnam and when these younger people return for vacations a decade from now they will not be spending much time nor much money in Thailand.

[animatic]

Backpackers don't magically run off 'quality tourists'

but eventually they BECOME 'quality tourists'...

Pretty right about them spending the same over time,

but NOT in the hight cost resorts.

Much of their money actually gets to the poorer Thais on the street,

A much better use of cash flow into the economy in many ways.

[cloudhopper]

The high end tourism (over)development here in Pai appears to be mostly targeting the domestic market.

[adam1]

Totally agree with the comments about backpackers.

Five or six years ago I had some great experiences living with backpackers and Thais in simple natural surroundings both up in Pai, and on Koh Phangan. Magical stuff! Real authentic people, intelligent, sensitive, engaging.......contrast that to the stressed-out looking Mums & Dads you see peering from the windows of their buses as they spend their mega-bucks on a week's holiday filled out by avaricious tour-mongerers and their trashy attempts at replicating "real Thai culture" - it's like some kinda of bizarre caricature......but a true one!

It indeed just seems like it is an irrevocable trend........"keep on movin" seems like the only solution...

I believe there are still "chilled out" places to go on Phangan, due to the fact that many beaches are inaccessible by road, but the charm of Pai has certainly taken a battering, especially after the "Pai Tsunami" a few years back.

I for one will be taking myself to Laos next time I have a long holiday - Land of Smiles with an A!

[sriracha john]

Thailand Tourism Revenue May Fall Below Goal

BANGKOK (Dow Jones / 17 minutes ago) -- Thailand's tourism revenue this year may fall short of the 600 Billion Baht target due mainly to the global financial crisis and problems on the domestic front, an executive at Tourism Authority of Thailand said Wednesday.

The domestic risk factors that are hampering the country from achieving the target include political tension, a bird flu outbreak, a territorial dispute with Cambodia, and prolonged violence in the Thai southern provinces, said Phanom Kaributra, TAT's Executive Director.

Tourist arrivals at the start of the current peak season, which normally begins from October to March, have declined substantially, he added.

Tourism accounts for about 6% of the Thai economy and is a major foreign exchange earner.

In 2007, Thailand generated a total of 506.44 Billion Baht in tourism revenue.

TAT targets tourist arrivals to reach 16 million next year and generate around 630 Billion Baht in tourism revenue. It forecasts tourist arrivals of 15.5 million this year, compared with 14.8 million in 2007, said Phanom.

Thailand aims to target tourists from fast-growing markets with high purchasing power, such as India and the Middle East, to offset declining visitor numbers from other regions, he added.

[jts-khorat]

Thailand Tourism Revenue May Fall Below Goal

BANGKOK (Dow Jones / 17 minutes ago) -- Thailand's tourism revenue this year may fall short of the 600 Billion Baht target due mainly to the global financial crisis and problems on the domestic front, an executive at Tourism Authority of Thailand said Wednesday.

The domestic risk factors that are hampering the country from achieving the target include political tension, a bird flu outbreak, a territorial dispute with Cambodia, and prolonged violence in the Thai southern provinces, said Phanom Kaributra, TAT's Executive Director.

Tourist arrivals at the start of the current peak season, which normally begins from October to March, have declined substantially, he added.

Tourism accounts for about 6% of the Thai economy and is a major foreign exchange earner.

In 2007, Thailand generated a total of 506.44 Billion Baht in tourism revenue.

TAT targets tourist arrivals to reach 16 million next year and generate around 630 Billion Baht in tourism revenue. It forecasts tourist arrivals of 15.5 million this year, compared with 14.8 million in 2007, said Phanom.

Thailand aims to target tourists from fast-growing markets with high purchasing power, such as India and the Middle East, to offset declining visitor numbers from other regions, he added.

I am getting increasingly confused how the TAT governor can offer completely opposing opinions to this TAT Executive Director without one of the two getting fired on the spot. Amazing that nobody within this country feels the same, when 6% GDP are at stake and so clearly nobody in power does more than sit on his hands.

Compare this to the 'Malaysia truly Asia' initiative that was very visible on the London World Travel Mart and maybe one should wish that the situation in Thailand becomes so bad that people starve; only then will we see some action and some improvement in local attitude (or maybe not even then).

[Scott]

Another bomb today at Gov't House, another death. This won't help the tourist situation.

[Beacher]

Totally agree with the comments about backpackers.

Five or six years ago I had some great experiences living with backpackers and Thais in simple natural surroundings both up in Pai, and on Koh Phangan. Magical stuff! Real authentic people, intelligent, sensitive, engaging.......contrast that to the stressed-out looking Mums & Dads you see peering from the windows of their buses as they spend their mega-bucks on a week's holiday filled out by avaricious tour-mongerers and their trashy attempts at replicating "real Thai culture" - it's like some kinda of bizarre caricature......but a true one!

It indeed just seems like it is an irrevocable trend........"keep on movin" seems like the only solution...

I believe there are still "chilled out" places to go on Phangan, due to the fact that many beaches are inaccessible by road, but the charm of Pai has certainly taken a battering, especially after the "Pai Tsunami" a few years back.

I for one will be taking myself to Laos next time I have a long holiday - Land of Smiles with an A!

I agree! I first came to Thailand over 25 years ago and have seen the rapid deterioration of the tourist spirit over the years. Although I live in Thailand and enjoy many things about it, mainly my job, the weather, and the fairly economical aspect of living here, I will take my future holidays in other SE Asian countries. I guess it puts a new twist on the old saying, "It's a nice place to visit, but I wouldn't want to live there." Now I'd have to say, "Its a nice place to live, but I wouldn't want to visit there."

Edited November 24, 2008 by Beacher

[thaibeachlovers]

As long as there are 20 somethings, they will go on their rites of passage traveling the globe, whether it be with backpacks or using daddy's credit cards.

It's a pity for Thailand that those in power have been trying so hard to discourage the young backpacker types from coming here. Actually, it seems they've trying to turn off all young travelers -- doing things like hauling them out of bars in Pattaya and making them sit in the street waiting for a urine test to see of they have taken any drugs. The young adventurous travelers are the type that built Thai tourism to be one of the country's most important money makers, but we've been hearing for ages that Thailand doesn't really want them anymore because they don't spend enough money -- would rather have only upper class or family visitors.

Also, perhaps the escalation of scams and violent crime aimed at tourists is catching up to the Thai tourism industry. I certainly have the impression that nothing real is being done in either case, and I suspect that more and more people are catching on to this. After all, the dissemination of information is getting wider and faster all the time, so when a country and its policies deteriorate (as Thailand's have) and make for a less appealing or more dangerous trip, people will know and choose to stay away.

Unfortunately, this country doesn't seem to learn from its mistakes, and the damaging importance of "saving face" means that people can't make changes or progress.

Where'd you get the info about drug tests in Pattaya? Just been there and it would seem doubtful as to that happening. Also, backpackers are an endangered species there.

Pattaya tourist numbers are way down, the Mike shopping mall carpark is now a hawker food market at night, as not many buses anymore!

Conversly, Nana Plaza is as packed as in any high season.

[LaoPo]

"Hotels and restaurants in the third quarter showed 0.2% growth, down from 5.9% and 9.2% in the second and first quarters. In September, foreign tourist arrivals were down 16.5% while the average occupancy rate of hotels nationwide dropped to 45% from 60% in the same period last year.

The tourism slowdown reflected the high cost of travel as fuel prices were near record highs at the time, but also unease about the protracted political tensions in Thailand."

From: http://www.bangkokpost.com/251108_Business...v2008_biz26.php

LaoPo

[sriracha john]

Tourist arrivals plummet in Thailand

Rising fuel costs pushed international arrivals at Bangkok's main airport down to about 600,000 in August -- a 33 percent drop from a year earlier

In September, arrivals were down 21 percent, and industry experts say numbers are expected to remain low as the global credit crunch prompts consumers worried about their jobs and mortgages to stay at home.

"We will probably have a very bad high season," said Oliver Martin of industry body the Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA).

the ever-present "massaging" of numbers... where 21% becomes 16.5% in just a few days

In September, foreign tourist arrivals were down 16.5%

and where 25% drops in a hugely significant tourist area

Phuket Tourist Association (PTA) Vice-President Bhuritt Maswongsa told the Gazette that current occupancy rates and bookings from now until the end of the year should result in an island-wide average occupancy rate of about 55% compared to 80% for the same period last year.

become a 15% drop when much less significant areas are added...

while the average occupancy rate of hotels nationwide dropped to 45% from 60% in the same period last year.

Edited November 25, 2008 by sriracha john

[robee]

At least Thailand is a relatively cheap country... I think harder hit tourism wise will be places like Singapore, Australia, Tahiti, etc. which are long haul and way more expensive once you get there.

agree and its relative because many travelers want most for a dollar, no matter what country it was printed in

[geriatrickid]

I see that TG is practically sold out on all flights into places like Phuket during the peak Christmas rush. I doubt the traditional peak period will hurt that much, as TG which costs more than Air Asia is close to full capacity.

[LaoPo]

I see that TG is practically sold out on all flights into places like Phuket during the peak Christmas rush. I doubt the traditional peak period will hurt that much, as TG which costs more than Air Asia is close to full capacity.

I think the Xmas season will be reasonably well as most long distance tourists book well in advance. How East Asian tourists will react to the ongoing financial crisis remains to be seen but most inbound tourism from the countries from that region dropped already.

LaoPo

[balo]

Good news from Norway !

Most of the charter flights to Thailand this Christmas are starting to get fully booked. It looks like we can afford it....

When its cold freezing temperatures up here in the north Scandinavians escape to the sunny beaches.

And Thailand is high up on the list over here.

[Los78]

Sadly with America and Europe in recession people are just not going to travel as much. It will be a hard time for all tourism areas over the next couple years.

[johnwills]

It does appear tourists are still coming, but what the stats don't show is that they are now spending less or maybe staying for a shorter period of time. Friends in Pattaya are reporting their regulars are still coming but are staying for less time, one month instead of 3 months in some cases. As one of the other posters pointed out most people book their holidays well in advance for the high season so the real fall may not show until next year.

[sassienie]

I was in Chiang Mai city on Monday night.

Meant to be the height of the tourist season, yet Chiang Mai city was like a ghost town.

Entertainments closing early including massage parlours, restaurants and some bars.

Hopefully Thailand will soon sort out this political crisis; otherwise it’s going to be a disaster for the tourist industries.

[LaoPo]

Tourist arrivals plummet in Thailand

Rising fuel costs pushed international arrivals at Bangkok's main airport down to about 600,000 in August -- a 33 percent drop from a year earlier

175,000 tourists are to be added to the number of 600,000

The problem is that the data are no longer supplied by the TAT. The statistics are a mess and very difficult to read from the Office of Tourism Development.

The note in the link below says under note #3: "Data from 5-11 August 2008 are not included due to the technical problem"

So: in August: 599.064 International arrivals at Suvarnabhumi -excluding 5-11 August-.

Average 25.000/day; the total is 31 x 25.000 = 775.000 instead the 600.000

Ah well....TIT, isn't it ?

SUVARNABHUMI_July___Sep_on_3rd_Nov_2008_1.xls

LaoPo

[Alwaysright]

I want to wish all those involved in the tourism business the best of luck. I think there will be some tough times ahead.

If tourists are treated well and fairly, they will return. The rip-offs that occur are a real downer and a definite turn off for most people.

You can pamper tourists till they melt, but in Europe the bookings for Thailand are way down.

Understandable, if you just lost your job, or are in fear of loosing your job, if the financial burden becomes too much, if you cannot get a loan for the holidays, and so on.

People are getting careful.

No tourists,I am going to enjoy this winter.