Stockmarket Trading, Forex, Commodities.

[Paulo1]

I am presently living in Nong Khai and would like to meet or have dicussions on Trading Financial Markets. I have been trading for 15 years and am willing to give advice on different trading opportunities, systems development etc. Also, i would like learn from what others have to say.

You can reply here or send me a personal message.

[soundman]

Moved to business/banking forum.

[lannarebirth]

Free Libray for trading of markets:

http://www.247free.org/books/books.html

[billaaa777]

With one post here you are all ready SPAMING! Takes a lot of nerve! Since you are going to give advice how much is this going to cost? And since you are so good at investing why are you trying to make money giving advice?

[PCA]

With one post here you are all ready SPAMING! Takes a lot of nerve! Since you are going to give advice how much is this going to cost? And since you are so good at investing why are you trying to make money giving advice?

he said one can reply here or via PM. Lets see maybe it is interesting and a stimulation in case for some of you. Sure if he wants to charge you can bet that he is a spammer but before that he is just Paulo and welcome to TV sir.

Paulo start a thread and I am sure some will jump in.

PCA

[Paulo1]

With one post here you are all ready SPAMING! Takes a lot of nerve! Since you are going to give advice how much is this going to cost? And since you are so good at investing why are you trying to make money giving advice?

Billaaa777,

You can imply and believe what you want.

My soul intension was to start a thread some people could contribute to in a possitive fashion.

I do not want any of your hard earned dollars.

My history in Trading and Investing is none of your business, since I am not selling anything, yet you tend to put a negative spin before anyone or myself had a opportunity to share our knowledge. My system gives me signals that most only dream about, and I must reiterate these signal are not for sale. They are free. However, one needs to learn how to trade, build a trading plan, what is a set-up, what is a trgger, entry, exit, position, timing, and a mental attitude that is calm in the trade.

At the end of the day I don't care what you think. So if anyone would like a friendly chat on trading, that is all I offer.

Heres a buy signal i got on the 3/11/08 entry was on the 5th @ 1.1593 and the stop was placed at 1.1500. last daily close @ 1.2246 and stop moved to 1.2150, working on the close only thats 653 pips * 10usd = $6530 per contract. Contract 1*100 leverage, cost to enter trade $1000 + margin which i this cas was not an issue. This is called a SWING/POSITION TRADE.

Hope you have a great weekend.

Edited November 21, 2008 by Paulo1

[thailandjunkie]

Hi Paulo1

I have started a daily blog on the Thai market and politics....might be of interest to you if you look at the SET.

And no, i am not selling anything either!

www.thailandjunkie.blogspot.com

[Paulo1]

EUD/USD I wrote this into my trading diary on the 15/11/2008

On the weekly back to may 2006 it is supported @ 1.24 , serious set of bullish engulfing patterns are forming stalling at about 1.32, which was the former resistance so a break and close above 1.34 will confirm a great double bottom and a significant reversal.

I can see a great swing/position trade forming here. If this turns out to be correct i will be taking a serious position.

Its very possible it will go down again or go sideways, but certainly worth close attention.

22/11/08

Update: As i thought it has continued sideways and retraced to a low 1.2425, but still having problems breaking support @1.2400 level and resistance now around the 1.2800 level. If you look at the EuroFX 2008-12 currency futures Index you can see the same pattern, however the numbers are different. The U.S Dollar Index 2008-12 contract is still strong. These can give you more of a insight into the strength and timing when to enter.

Conclusion: USD still getting stronger, EUD consolidating. Desending triangle forming. If downtrend is going to continue, will need to watch for a 2 period close below the horizontal support line and use a stop on the resistance line slopping down,and vice versa. Profit potential is calculated by measuring the greatest distance from the begining point of the destending trend line to the bottom of the support line. If break out occurs either way profit around 500 pips. Solid bass forming 2400 level. Will keep a close eye on it. Patience needed.

If it has a strong break to the downside you could see it hit 1.800 level, very unlikely though, however you never know how far a move will be.

[hyperdimension]

Hi Paulo1, I'm interested in what you have to say.

Can you outline your trading strategy... what markets do you trade, on what time frames and what are your entry and exit criteria and stop exit criteria?

What programs do you use for your trading?

I did quite well trading U.S. stocks based on fundamentals in 2007, but stopped when things started getting bearish. I've held onto my gains, unlike the rest of the market and most managed funds which are currently in significant drawdowns.

Lately I've been taking advantage of downwards momentum by short selling ETFs and have done well over the past month.

[torrenova]

For some of the newcomers out there try this:

Run SD1 and SD2 FTSE v GDAX and you might be surprised by what you see.

[Paulo1]

EUD/USD I wrote this into my trading diary on the 15/11/2008

On the weekly back to may 2006 it is supported @ 1.24 , serious set of bullish engulfing patterns are forming stalling at about 1.32, which was the former resistance so a break and close above 1.34 will confirm a great double bottom and a significant reversal.

I can see a great swing/position trade forming here. If this turns out to be correct i will be taking a serious position.

Its very possible it will go down again or go sideways, but certainly worth close attention.

22/11/08

Update: As i thought it has continued sideways and retraced to a low 1.2425, but still having problems breaking support @1.2400 level and resistance now around the 1.2800 level. If you look at the EuroFX 2008-12 currency futures Index you can see the same pattern, however the numbers are different. The U.S Dollar Index 2008-12 contract is still strong. These can give you more of a insight into the strength and timing when to enter.

Conclusion: USD still getting stronger, EUD consolidating. Desending triangle forming. If downtrend is going to continue, will need to watch for a 2 period close below the horizontal support line and use a stop on the resistance line slopping down,and vice versa. Profit potential is calculated by measuring the greatest distance from the begining point of the destending trend line to the bottom of the support line. If break out occurs either way profit around 500 pips. Solid bass forming 2400 level. Will keep a close eye on it. Patience needed.

If it has a strong break to the downside you could see it hit 1.800 level, very unlikely though, however you never know how far a move will be.

EUD/USD.

Upside breakout confirmed for a day trade.

24/11/2008

Entry 1.2589 stop1 1.2450 stop moved to 1.2701. High of 1.1297. Support @ pivot 1.2811

When reading this please beware that my stop could have changed, due to the fact of profit taking and changing to a trailing stop.

I realise the size of the stop will proberly scare some of you, but this signal was generated using daily analysis, so in short the longer the time frame the larger the stop. You need to give the currency room to breath in order to catch the big moves. If you apply the correct position size, you should not need to worry.

NEW BUY SIGNAL. GPB/USD (cable)

Entry 1.5170 @ 6am Thai time. around the open.

Stop 1.4960.

Could be a day early on this one.

[Paulo1]

Hi Paulo1, I'm interested in what you have to say.

Can you outline your trading strategy... what markets do you trade, on what time frames and what are your entry and exit criteria and stop exit criteria? I trade all timeframes. Tick to daily, sometimes I enter many trades on a single bar 1minute. Markets I trade are ASX, Euro, USA. pretty much all instruments, but have been focused on FX , e-mini russel, dow etc.

My entry criteria is based on price,support, resistance, pivot, Divergence. I have developed some excellent indicators. They are presently returning about 83% correct. I don't want to give to much away at present. Only use a couple of indicaters. A good one is to turn your piviot into a mov av period 3 & 5 . Watch the angle of it.

What programs do you use for your trading? My own, data from reuters. I have looked at so many programs over the years and really don't like to many. Most of the FX ones are a hoax and only work for a very short period. My analyst of the EUD/$ was purly support/resistance, patterns and candles. Pretty basic stuff, but nailed it.

I did quite well trading U.S. stocks based on fundamentals in 2007, but stopped when things started getting bearish. I've held onto my gains, unlike the rest of the market and most managed funds which are currently in significant drawdowns. I think everyone did well over that period.

Lately I've been taking advantage of downwards momentum by short selling ETFs and have done well over the past month.

Sorry if explanations are a bit vague, when time permits will be more concise.

[BlackJack]

hello

care to run some numbers on the AU and the US$

even the RBA says AU will retreat to 45 cents next year

theres quiet a few punters on the forum that would like to get some gains on their OZ dollars as resources are taking all gains away

[Super Hans]

What is everyone talking about?

[Paulo1]

EUD/AUD @ 1.9650 Stop now 1.9691 end of week close 1.9394

EUD/AUD Short @ 1.9394 stop 1.9700, will re-enter on Monday, pending other indicators confirmations. Looks good though.

Still Long the GPB/USD from 24/11/08 @ 1.5170 Stop now 1.5340 , closed for the 1.5377, needs to break 1.5500

AUD/CAD looks promising but would like to see a break of 8200. presently at first level resistance .8135.

AUD is looking stronger. Will need to see the first break of .6600 then .7000. Once that happened we should see some consolidation to the upside. However a break below support @ 6000 could be bad news. I do not believe this will happen, more like a buying opportunity. Last time it hit this level was 27/10/2008.

USD will continue to get stronger till the end of the year. Alot of balls in the air at present. Dollar Index supported @ 85.000, if breaks that you will see a 84.000 retracting to 82.000. This come from US Dollar Index (DX) futures.

Been trading all week. Try not to look at the screens much over the weekend, except for Monday preparation .

Will do more analysis later.

Edited November 29, 2008 by Paulo1

[VegasVic]

EUD/AUD @ 1.9650 Stop now 1.9691 end of week close 1.9394

EUD/AUD Short @ 1.9394 stop 1.9700, will re-enter on Monday, pending other indicators confirmations. Looks good though.

Still Long the GPB/USD from 24/11/08 @ 1.5170 Stop now 1.5340 , closed for the 1.5377, needs to break 1.5500

AUD/CAD looks promising but would like to see a break of 8200. presently at first level resistance .8135.

AUD is looking stronger. Will need to see the first break of .6600 then .7000. Once that happened we should see some consolidation to the upside. However a break below support @ 6000 could be bad news. I do not believe this will happen, more like a buying opportunity. Last time it hit this level was 27/10/2008.

USD will continue to get stronger till the end of the year. Alot of balls in the air at present. Dollar Index supported @ 85.000, if breaks that you will see a 84.000 retracting to 82.000. This come from US Dollar Index (DX) futures.

Been trading all week. Try not to look at the screens much over the weekend, except for Monday preparation .

Will do more analysis later.

The U.S. Dollar will not only continue to strengthen till the end of this year, it will continue to strenghten into the early part of 2009, due to continued deleveraging and the multiple interest rate cuts yet to come from the EU and BOE

[VegasVic]

hello

care to run some numbers on the AU and the US$

even the RBA says AU will retreat to 45 cents next year

theres quiet a few punters on the forum that would like to get some gains on their OZ dollars as resources are taking all gains away

The 45-50 area seems to be the general consensus of the traders that I have talked to, but these levels will not be seen until Febuary, March or even later in the spring. The Aussie central bank like the EU and BOE have multiple interest rate cuts yet to come, and commodities will continue their bear market for at least the 1st half of 2009 and this does not bode well for the Aussie dollar.

[DrGreenthumb]

Does anyone have advice on good stocks that will pick up quickly?

[Paulo1]

Does anyone have advice on good stocks that will pick up quickly?

Buy BHP on weekness, a week ago I picked some up at $21 p/s and now nearly $30. Safer in this market also, keep away from spec's.

[Paulo1]

Still Long the GPB/USD from 24/11/08 @ 1.5170 Stop now 1.5340 , closed for the 1.5377, needs to break 1.5500

Stop hit this morning

[Paulo1]

AUD/CAD no confirmation. forget it. sideways at present, most likely to break to the downside.

EUD/AUD failed at present. took small profit friday.

EUD/CAD short 2/12/08 @ 1.5729 stop 1.5835.

EUDJPY short no entry yet.

EUD/CHF Short 1/12/08 @ 1.5462 stop now moved to 1.5368

HotTip. Nasdaq and the EUD/CHF have very similar trading patterns and the Eud/Chf follows it closely.

Anyone trading this week be careful, due to some big news events.

[thailandjunkie]

Useful information Paulo1. I am not an active player in the FX market...too much of my assets stuck in this wonderful messed up place. Good contribution to the "collective" though.

www.thailandjunkie.blogspot.com

[hyperdimension]

AUD is looking stronger. Will need to see the first break of .6600 then .7000. Once that happened we should see some consolidation to the upside. However a break below support @ 6000 could be bad news. I do not believe this will happen, more like a buying opportunity. Last time it hit this level was 27/10/2008.

It looked like the AUD/USD resistance at 0.6600 held well, so I short-sold it at 0.6519 yesterday morning a bit after the week's open (05:15 bangkok time = 09:15 Australian time), with a stop initially at 0.6652. It's now at 0.6388, and I've trailed my stop down to 0.6501.

My cash and other assets are in Australian dollars, so this trade is like a hedge to counteract further falls in AUD/THB that I would otherwise suffer since I live in Thailand.

The Reserve Bank of Australia cut another 100 basis points off the interest rate today.

I also did some ETF short-selling last night, it was an easy smooth ride down last night.

[Chewbacka]

Is there any particular forex trading platforms that anyone would reccommend?

Cheers.

[hyperdimension]

I use interactivebrokers.com to do my actual trading, but they have minimum order sizes for currency trading: IB IDEALPRO Forex. They work a bit differently to most other forex brokers, because their platform is more catered for trading other instruments like stocks, options and futures.

Probably the most popular forex broker is OANDA FXTrade. Their small bid vs ask spreads (e.g. 0.9 pips for EUR/USD) are a major attraction, and they are highly capitalized as a company. There is no minimum order size nor minimum deposit. e.g. you can play with just 500 dollars if you want to, and you can make trades worth only a few dollars. So it's good for beginners or for testing trading strategies with real money. I have an account but haven't yet funded it. I don't like the browser-based platform much.

The most popular program for real-time currency data and analysis is Metatrader. There are many forex brokers that support it. I use Metatrader provided by FXDD.com. It's free, and it's fast and easy to keep signing up for the "free trial".

So I think my preferred set up would be using Metatrader for the data and technical analysis whilst using OANDA FXTrade for the actual trading.

Edited December 2, 2008 by hyperdimension

[Chewbacka]

Thanks very much for the info.

I have been looking at the platform provided by fxcm.com. They seem to be one of the larger operators and offer a demo acounts as well as mini accounts however I did use them for a short period before and after a while I could not log onto the platform - which is a bit worrying if you are in an open position!!

[Chewbacka]

Thank you very much. I will do some further investigation.

[Paulo1]

Hyerdimensin,

Nice trade on the AuD/Usd. Good advice on the trading systems also. I like to use Alpari.co.uk and Fxopen for Forex. The spreads are as good as Onanda, but they make up for it in other ways, such as, no stop hunting, minimal slippage, super powerful system. Data excellent and all on MT4. I too have used IB and Tradestation. I think IB is good ,but for a beginner maybe a little advanced.

I share your thoughts on the AUD as I live in Thailand and have most money in AUD. I did make a lucky move when it was almost at paririty with the USD, so thats been very good to me.

My analysis today has not really found any immediate trades.

Been in and out of the GPB/USD. At present am short from 1.4934 stop now at 1.4844 last price 1.4773, may start to trail it soon, will just keep a eye on it. I really like to give FX room to breath as volatility can change very quickly. Since the 2 Dec there has been some big swings 100 plus pips, nice to ctch them, but I am sure you know how hard that can be.

EUD/GPB is looking interesting at present. DAILY CHART ANALYSIS.

1. Maybe a double top in process.

2. Resistance @ around the .8600 level. 3 bars have hit it and come back. If it continues in this pattern I am thinking we may see a Doji form which would be a good entry SHORT with low risk. Other than that a entry around .8600 level could work also.

3. Support 1 @ .8400 then resistance will become support @ .8200.

4. Pattern has not completed yet so some patience is needed here. Depending on your risk/reward ratio. We are not trying to pick the top or bottom. If one can get into the trade and 50% of the move you are still making good money and its more certain you will make a profit rather than a loss. Remember> The Trend is your Friend, Until the Bend.

5. Being a Thursday we are coming to the end of the Trading week, another reason to be aware.

Edited December 4, 2008 by Paulo1

[Chewbacka]

Great post Paulo. Being a novice myself, your chart analysis on EUR/GBP is food for learning!

The GPB/USD is currently hovering around the 147.30 which means that if you are still in the trade you are currently on about a 200 pip profit!

That will buy a few somtams in Nong Khai!

[hyperdimension]

Nice trade on the AuD/Usd.

I closed my AUD/USD short position at 0.6410 when it seemed direction was uncertain. It even went up past 0.65 this morning.

I then tried shorting AUD/JPY and EUR/JPY but got chopped by the volatility due to my stops not being wide enough. They've both moved lower from where I got stopped out .

I like to use Alpari.co.uk and Fxopen for Forex. The spreads are as good as Onanda,

I checked the FXOpen and the Alpari web sites but they both say their spread is "from 2 pips", whereas Oanda have 0.9 pip spread for EUR/USD and 1.5 pips for USD/JPY.

Here are the specified spreads from Alpari and Oanda:

Alpari Contracts Specifications

Current OANDA Pairs and Spreads

I've opened a free demo account with MIG, because I needed data for the 28 pairs specified by this indicator that I wanted to try: Spaghetti Indicator

It feels fast and reliable, and I think it has been recommended by other traders.

For anyone interested, here are the links to download MIG's MetaTrader program. After installation, it's easy to create a new demo account and then start getting real-time data:

http://www.migfx.ch/fileadmin/download/sof...e/mig4setup.exe

http://www.migfx.ch/fileadmin/download/sof...mobilesetup.cab

At the moment I'll only use MIG for real-time data and analysis, and transact through Interactive Brokers or Oanda.

I think IB is good ,but for a beginner maybe a little advanced.

I've mostly been trading stocks through them, and they are excellent for that, especially the low commissions (0.005 USD per share).

I share your thoughts on the AUD as I live in Thailand and have most money in AUD. I did make a lucky move when it was almost at paririty with the USD, so thats been very good to me.

Yes you are very lucky with that. I wasn't watching the currencies when the big moves happened (I was focused only on the stock market), and have suffered for not having taken action early. In hindsight, it looks like a no-brainer. The only thing I can do now is keep a closer eye on currencies going forward.

It's important for everyone who relies on offshore savings/income/assets to always keep a watch on currency rates, because not taking any action when rates move adversely can result in being a lot poorer in the country of residence.

So what options do ex-patriates have? They could exchange/withdraw a large amount of their savings, so that they "lock-in" a good rate before adverse moves. Or they could learn a little about currency trading and make trades that will profit from the adverse moves in order to counteract their losses that they would otherwise have suffered. The leverage that the brokers provide makes currency trading easy and accessible to most people - a trade worth 10K USD may require only 200 USD of actual cash in the trading account. This is something foreigners living in Thailand or any other country should think about.

Been in and out of the GPB/USD.

I shorted GBP/USD based on the support breakout last night at 1.47758, with a stop currently at 1.492. It has been quite volatile.

I really like to give FX room to breath as volatility can change very quickly. Since the 2 Dec there has been some big swings 100 plus pips, nice to ctch them, but I am sure you know how hard that can be.

I know what you mean. The average daily ranges for most currency pairs have been in the hundreds. The ATR(20) of EUR/USD was around 300 a couple of weeks ago, which is crazy. Now it's around 200 which is still quite high. It was around 100 in July 2008 and around 50 in July 2007.

The increased ranges means wider stops are required, which then should mean smaller position sizes if we follow the rule of only risking a small percentage (e.g. 2%) of your trading account on each trade. This is where a broker that has minimum order sizes would not be appropriate for small trading accounts.

We are not trying to pick the top or bottom. If one can get into the trade and 50% of the move you are still making good money and its more certain you will make a profit rather than a loss. Remember> The Trend is your Friend, Until the Bend.

I agree, and currencies are known to have long trends, which makes trend-following trading easier. The problem often is the identification of a trend in real-time (whereas it's easy to do in hindsight). I look at multiple time frames to attempt to see what the main trend is, and I'd never go against it. Entering on a short-term pullback is often the recommended way to enter the dominant trend, though it can take patience to wait for such pullbacks, and I haven't always been patient. I think I prefer breakouts because I can place stop-entry orders above resistance or below support, and they are automatically triggered when the momentum is in the direction of the main trend, which feels a lot more intuitive and I don't have to watch as closely. Of course, there's always the problem of reversal due to the trend being over-extended, and where to put the stop if the recent moves have been quite sharp.