Stockmarket Trading, Forex, Commodities.

[Paulo1]

Ron Paul

[Paulo1]

This will be a year for silver.

Wishing all traders a Happy and Successful year, even Naam, but he is not a trader.

Investopedia explains 'Cable'

For example, you may hear someone dealing with the forex market saying, "The cable is up today," or, "The cable has been trending lower lately."

The origins of this term are attributed to the fact that in the 1800s, the dollar/pound sterling exchange rate was transmitted via transatlantic cable. Forex brokers are sometimes referred to as "cable dealers".

Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cable.asp#ixzz2GoAvnUvB

[Paulo1]

USDJPY (87.26) – Despite ST indicators being stretched, the market pushes still higher. Intraday support runs 85.66-85.37. Next big level May '10 high 94.99

EURUSD (1.3185) – Shooting star exhaustion pattern is of concern, though pullback from Dec high still looks like a bullish continuation. 1.3172-27 in focus

GBPUSD (1.6250) – Shooting star exhaustion below 1.63 major pivot resistance suggests a ST top is likely in place. Downside in focus 1.6072-1.6058

EURCHF (1.2103) – A strong move higher despite the less +ve EURUSD price action. Seems a good risk/reward for a target of near ~1.2168

USDINR (54.24) – The clearest risk/reward in Asia. Top in place after two consecutive near 76.4% retraces. Confirm below the Dec '12 low at 54.01

USDTHB (30.33) – Potentially breaking lower from a multi-year channel/uptrend. Looks likely to have completed a bearish flag like pattern based near the lows of July ’11, and targeting a near 2 big figure drop from the breakpoint. The next clear level below, and a confirmation point to the breakout, should now be the February ’12 low at 30.17. A weekly close below this area would break the series of higher highs and higher lows, potentially opening the market up to a major downtrend.

Bullish-EURCHF – ST tech. setup looking constructive. Also looks increasingly “cheap” versus historically positively correlated asset markets. Exit if daily (5pm NY) close below 76.4% retrace at 1.2063

Bullish-USDJPY – The recent uptrend is looking stretched so consolidation is possible, but structural bullish setup looks intact. Daily close basis (5pm NY) stop raised to (rolling) 21-dma currently at 84.37

[Paulo1]

If you can not make money from this. STOP TRADING

Main Themes

1. USDJPY: A structural base and turn in monthly chart trend?..

-AA number of signals have come together simultaneously on the monthly chart to argue that a major turn in underlying trend should now be under way

-The key to opening a material rally towards the high-90s and possibly 100 should be a clean/clear weekly close above 84.18-85.53

-If this is the correct interpretation, the setup coming together now on USDJPY could become comparable to EURUSD’s base and eventual upside turn from the ’2000 low at 0.8228

2. NIKKEI: Multi-year shift in relative performance and trend?..

Some of the most interesting asset markets charts at this point are the multi-year G3 benchmark equity index ratios

-The Nikkei appears well set to make a major turn, potentially becoming the out-performer. Over recent months this has tended to be correlated to JPY-weakness

-Its own individual setup also looks very constructive, with a monthly close above the downtrend from the April ’10 high potentially targeting at least 12,200

3. EUR: Peripheral stabilisation and recovery in EUR/Crosses?..

-Over recent weeks the strongest cross asset guide to the EUR’s performance has been the strength of peripheral asset markets

-As broad guides, both the Italian and Spanish benchmark equity indices (MIB and IBEX) appear to have based and may well recover significantly further over time

-With this in mind it seems quite feasible EUR continues to perform relatively well, particularly in the crosses. EURJPY and EURCHF stand out as two potential bullish contenders

4. AUD: In the process of peaking, likely set to under-perform?..

-First of all to put things into perspective, the AUD/Broad Index^(*) rallied ~52.8% from the ’08 low to this year’s high, that means AUD ralliedon average ~52.8% vs every “Old World G10” currency

-It appears that a structural top on the index is being set and the AUD may now enter at least a multi-month corrective under-performance phase

-AUDUSD isn’t particularly clear, but in crosses such as EURAUD and AUDCAD the AUD looks well set to under-perform (essentially mean-revert) over the coming months

5. GOLD: Losing its shine?..

-Gold, along with many other out-performers such as JPY and AUD, seems to be on the turn, at least for a major correction – particularly in the “cross markets”

-Gold in EUR-terms is probably the “stand out” chart. It has recently broken below its 55-wma after anextreme run of 213 consecutive weekly closes above and could well correct another ~17%

-The other really interesting chart is Gold in INR-terms; potentially looks set to drop ~25% from current levels if a topping structure can complete (USDINR may also have formed a major top)

Pretty happy with this analysis so far. (:

[Paulo1]

2013 Themes Recap

1. USDJPY: A structural base and turn in monthly chart trend?..

So far doing well, with December’s close above the 84.18-85.53 pivot likely being another important mile stone in confirming a significant turn in underlying trend in place. Ultimately heading for ~100?

2. NIKKEI: Multi-year shift in relative performance and trend?..

Also ticking along ok so far. December’s close on the Nikkei itself was above the prior interim high from March ’12 at 10,255 which should confirm a bullish structure in place to target at least 12,200

3. EUR: Peripheral stabilisation and recovery in EUR/Crosses?..

Mixed performance. The peripheral asset markets doing well but not leading to notable further EUR recovery in the crosses. Underlying theme intact but momentum poor so far, Jan. seasonals a –ve too

4. AUD: In the process of peaking, likely set to under-perform?..

Consolidating here. Underlying structure in place, but strength in Chinese asset markets may well mean this is a slow burner

5. GOLD: Losing its shine?..

Consolidation over the past couple of weeks. Signals in the “crosses” such as Gold in EUR- and INR-terms all argue something big (Gold –ve) may well be brewing

Main Themes

USDJPY ST – A number of daily chart oscillators are at extremes last seen in March ’12. However, for now reading as a warning of consolidation as opposed to a real turn given underlying setup

USDJPY LT – Break up from multi-year divergent wedge should mean powerful trend is sustainable. Chart in pack shows historic examples of this pattern where “perma-bid” type trends developed

Broad/JPY Index^(*) – Similar signals both ST and LT to USDJPY itself. Looks stretched on ST oscillators but longer-term structure should be constructive, consolidation seems more likely than a turn

SEKJPY – Very sharp rally following break of historically significant 200-wma. Now watching how price action develops ahead of recent range highs ~2.25-3% above current levels

EURUSD – Not looking good at all at this stage. Double top (with two very poor daily candle patterns) and now at risk of a bearish weekly reversal (with 5pm NY close Friday below 1.3158)

EUR Seasonals – Both EURUSD and EUR/Crosses on average tend to weaken in January. Initial signs are this may play out again this year, but weakness is usually concentrated early in the month

Italian Markets – Performing very well. The MIB pushing to new highs, possibly on track for the 200-wma at 18,755 and 10-year yields pushing lower - arguably on track for 3.85-3.82%

EURUSD Cross Asset Correlations – Could the seasonals be masking what’s really going on? In Dec. it seemed all about Germany/Italy spreads, now they don’t appear to matter

U.S. 10-year yields – Attempting to break higher. Daily close above pivot resistance (price support) running 1.84-1.86% should target ~2.19%

German 10-year yields – A particularly clear structure here. Daily close above 1.46-1.48% (now achieved) should give target of 1.66% (close to the September ’12 highs)

EURCHF – Still consolidating, but could well have potential to surprise on the upside. Again starting to look very cheap vs historically positively correlated asset markets

USDCHF – Putting it all together this could start to move a lot. Classic tech. structure isn’t that clear, just a big pivot region from here to 0.9427, but, from an Elliot perspective, could be v. bullish

USDINR – This really looks like it could be a big top developing. First confirmation below the 6^th December ’12 low at 54.01

USDTHB – Breaking lower from a multi-year bear flag like consolidation. Could be the beginning of a major underlying downtrend to test (possibly ultimately break) the Nov. ’10 low at 29.44

Favourite Tactical Themes

(<1-month Horizon)

Bullish-EURCHF – ST tech. setup looking constructive. Also looks increasingly “cheap” versus historically positively correlated asset markets. Exit if daily (5pm NY) close below 76.4% retrace at 1.2063

Bullish-USDJPY – Daily uptrend stretched on some indicators consolidation possible, but structural bullish setup looks intact. Daily close basis (5pm NY) stop raised to (rolling) 21-dma (last 84.60)

(Add) Bearish-USDINR – Looks like a significant top developing with attractive risk/reward on bearish ST exposure. Initial target 5^th Oct. ’12 low at 51.35, daily close basis stop at 55.28 (21^st Dec. high)

Edited January 4, 2013 by Paulo1

[Paulo1]

You can reply here or send me a personal message.

Notsure what you want me to do. I can not see =your attachments

Edited January 4, 2013 by Paulo1

[Paulo1]

Paulo is an awesome analysis. Wrtten by Paulo....lol

I am charged. This year will rock.

Edited January 4, 2013 by Paulo1

[tdm]

Paulo is an awesome analysis. Wrtten by Paulo....lol

I am charged. This year will rock.

Yes very good analysis indeed Paulo. Gold certainly looks like it's behaving as you expected. As always i think it's the timing of these trades that will be the difficult part, wider stops perhaps to avoid getting taken out on volatility/corrections with smaller position size to compensate. Next week all participants are back in the markets after the xmas break so I will watch closely what develops. Currently looking to enter short yen trades but only following a decent correction.

[Chivas]

This will be a year for silver.

Wishing all traders a Happy and Successful year, even Naam, but he is not a trader.

Investopedia explains 'Cable'

For example, you may hear someone dealing with the forex market saying, "The cable is up today," or, "The cable has been trending lower lately."

The origins of this term are attributed to the fact that in the 1800s, the dollar/pound sterling exchange rate was transmitted via transatlantic cable. Forex brokers are sometimes referred to as "cable dealers".

Read more: http://www.investope...p#ixzz2GoAvnUvB

He'll never be able to live that Faux Pas down Paulo...............

[Paulo1]

Paulo is an awesome analysis. Wrtten by Paulo....lol

I am charged. This year will rock.

Yes very good analysis indeed Paulo. Gold certainly looks like it's behaving as you expected. As always i think it's the timing of these trades that will be the difficult part, wider stops perhaps to avoid getting taken out on volatility/corrections with smaller position size to compensate. Next week all participants are back in the markets after the xmas break so I will watch closely what develops. Currently looking to enter short yen trades but only following a decent correction.

Gold is being maniplulated big time by the US Government, same with Silver through JP Morgan which run US Government positions . They are trying to make Gold and Silver look weak in order to put strength into the USD, This way the gerneral population are less concerned about the US economy.

GBPUSD Buying pending PA (price action) at 1.6058/ 1.6022 target 6170.

EURUSD Buying 1.3040 there is a signal here today and some space for the market to move up into, so if you can make the risk reward work today’s Candle (Saturdays close) may work for you, but just be aware of the resistance coming in at 1.3155 – 1.3300.

Matrix trading. If you are short the EURUSD. watch the USDCAD, if bullish and the NZDUSD is bearish at then same time your EURUSD trade is pretty safe.

[Paulo1]

Paulo is an awesome analysis. Wrtten by Paulo....lol

I am charged. This year will rock.

Yes very good analysis indeed Paulo. Gold certainly looks like it's behaving as you expected. As always i think it's the timing of these trades that will be the difficult part, wider stops perhaps to avoid getting taken out on volatility/corrections with smaller position size to compensate. Next week all participants are back in the markets after the xmas break so I will watch closely what develops. Currently looking to enter short yen trades but only following a decent correction.

Gold is being maniplulated big time by the US Government, same with Silver through JP Morgan which run US Government positions . They are trying to make Gold and Silver look weak in order to put strength into the USD, This way the gerneral population are less concerned about the US economy.

GBPUSD Buying pending PA (price action) at 1.6058/ 1.6022 target 6170.

EURUSD Buying 1.3040 there is a signal here today and some space for the market to move up into, so if you can make the risk reward work today’s Candle (Saturdays close) may work for you, but just be aware of the resistance coming in at 1.3155 – 1.3300.

Matrix trading. If you are short the EURUSD. watch the USDCAD, if bullish and the NZDUSD is bearish at then same time your EURUSD trade is pretty safe.

EU triggered at 1.3038 plus 80 pips @ market. Chart posted for educational purpose.

GU Triggered @ 1.6022 plus 90 pips @ market

And am long NZDUSD 8326 .

[Paulo1]

EURUSD: Zone to watch for retrace down, anywhere from 1.3155 to 1.3300 if the market moves up into that area.

GBPUSD: Waiting for a price action sell signal from resistance if this market does retrace higher soon. 1.6173 to 1.6215

WTI The spot crude oil market continues to look posed for a breakout above 93.50 resistance. With a push higher and break above 93.50 we would expect a larger move higher, with some resistance seen around 95.50 and then 100.00

1. Entry at 93.25 , stop 92.38 2. Retrace entry @ 92.45 3. Buy stop 94.30 4. Close above 93.82, retrace to entry 93.25.

DJ30 – 4hr. The Dow Jones market essentially stalled today just under 13,370 resistance. A small 4 hour candle formed last Friday 13,375. market rejecting that resistance and if the market cannot bust above that level soon we could see it rotate significantly lower and fill the gap from last week between low 12,897 and high open 13,165

[Paulo1]

XAUUSD: Zooming out to a weekly chart attached, Really begin to see a zone of key resistance from about $1635.00 down to $1610.00, and as this market is still looking pretty weak, it wouldn’t be surprising to see it fall further. Thus, I am revising my tone from recent commentaries and saying it would be “safer” to look for long signals a little further down, perhaps around that $1610.00 area. We could also look to sell if this market forms an obvious sell signal from resistance, as technically the downtrend is still intact.

[Paulo1]

Refer to post #1235.

USDJPY (87.05) – Continues to pullback towards 85.36-32 where bias is to re-establish bullish exposure. Intraday resistance runs 86.91-87.80

EURJPY (113.86) – Like USDJPY, pulling back within an uptrend. Daily close basis support centred on 112.30-22. Resistance runs 115.45-116.00

EURUSD (1.3120) – Held intraday resistance at 1.3158-72 (prior double-top neckline/55-ma on 4-hr charts). Confirmed ST top if < 1.3091

USDINR (55.00) – Dropping once again from 76.4% retrace resistance (55.44). A top would be confirmed on a close break below 54.01 (low from 6 Dec)

USDTRY (1.7789) – Nearing noteworthy daily support 1.7766-55. Testing the base of a major multi-wk triangle. A major top may be in place

S&P Index (1,457.15) – So far holding above 1,452-1,448 support. Daily oscillators beginning to look like they may top near prior range highs

US 10yy (1.86%) – Testing 1.86-84% pivot as support after two blowout/indecision patterns. Ideally want to base near here.

Bullish-EURCHF – ST tech. setup looking constructive. Also looks increasingly “cheap” versus historically positively correlated asset markets. Exit if daily (5pm NY) close below 76.4% retrace at 1.2063

Bearish-USDINR – Looks like a significant top developing with attractive risk/reward on bearish ST exposure. Initial target 5^th Oct. ’12 low at 51.35, daily close basis stop at 55.28 (21^st Dec. high)

[WhalerJoe]

Anyone getting disconnects using Interactive Brokers TWS in Thailand?

I am using True, and I have uninterrupted service for anything including torrents, most websites and everything else, until I input an order into TWS, at which time my connection INSTANTLY goes down, often leaving me in a naked position and disconnected.

Anyone else?

[Paulo1]

Posted 2013-01-04 18:53:40

USDTHB – Breaking lower from a multi-year bear flag like consolidation. Could be the beginning of a major underlying downtrend to test (possibly ultimately break) the Nov. ’10 low at 29.44

2013-01-16

USDTHB (29.94) Breaking below the low from Feb ’12 of 30.17. Larger bearish continuation pattern ultimately gives an extreme downside extension target of ~28.80

EURUSD (1.3306) – Just about holds the prior highs from 19th Dec-2 Jan ~1.3309-05. Buying around 1.3244 Should be quite an important signal if manages to stay above.

S&P (1,472) – Mixed signals just below prior cycle highs (1,474). Now two classic “hanging man” reversal patterns following Friday’s doji, but no real moves quite yet?

Written this morning

Edited January 16, 2013 by Paulo1

[Paulo1]

USDJPY (88.38) – Despite tired signal, intraday levels seem to hold quite well 88.34-19 (uptrend from 21 Dec/55-ma on 4-hr charts). The 21-dma trades at 87.03

EURJPY (117.45) – Daily support the 15 Jan high at 115.99 and then 21-dma at 114.91. Possible negative daily oscillator divergence, still cautious

EURUSD (1.3289) – Poor close back below prior consolidation highs (1.3309-1.3300). Next support level prior high from 14th Sep near 1.3169-1.3150

EURCHF (1.2372) – Pulling back after quite a sharp rally, structural story remains strong. Intraday support 1.2359 (55-hma). Initial target 1.2474

USDCHF (0.9310) – Despite some consolidation, second daily close > 0.9283-0.9303 resistance. Notable ABC/channel resistance now 0.9326-30

GBPUSD (1.6007) – Close break below the 55-dma and uptrend from 12 July. Beneath this, the 200-dma trades at 1.5907 (held the prior interim low from 15th Nov)

Back to trading the accounts, so posting will slow.

[Paulo1]

If you can not make money from this. STOP TRADING

Main Themes

1. USDJPY: A structural base and turn in monthly chart trend?..

-AA number of signals have come together simultaneously on the monthly chart to argue that a major turn in underlying trend should now be under way

-The key to opening a material rally towards the high-90s and possibly 100 should be a clean/clear weekly close above 84.18-85.53

-If this is the correct interpretation, the setup coming together now on USDJPY could become comparable to EURUSD’s base and eventual upside turn from the ’2000 low at 0.8228

2. NIKKEI: Multi-year shift in relative performance and trend?..

Some of the most interesting asset markets charts at this point are the multi-year G3 benchmark equity index ratios

-The Nikkei appears well set to make a major turn, potentially becoming the out-performer. Over recent months this has tended to be correlated to JPY-weakness

-Its own individual setup also looks very constructive, with a monthly close above the downtrend from the April ’10 high potentially targeting at least 12,200

3. EUR: Peripheral stabilisation and recovery in EUR/Crosses?..

-Over recent weeks the strongest cross asset guide to the EUR’s performance has been the strength of peripheral asset markets

-As broad guides, both the Italian and Spanish benchmark equity indices (MIB and IBEX) appear to have based and may well recover significantly further over time

-With this in mind it seems quite feasible EUR continues to perform relatively well, particularly in the crosses. EURJPY and EURCHF stand out as two potential bullish contenders

4. AUD: In the process of peaking, likely set to under-perform?..

-First of all to put things into perspective, the AUD/Broad Index^(*) rallied ~52.8% from the ’08 low to this year’s high, that means AUD ralliedon average ~52.8% vs every “Old World G10” currency

-It appears that a structural top on the index is being set and the AUD may now enter at least a multi-month corrective under-performance phase

-AUDUSD isn’t particularly clear, but in crosses such as EURAUD and AUDCAD the AUD looks well set to under-perform (essentially mean-revert) over the coming months

5. GOLD: Losing its shine?..

-Gold, along with many other out-performers such as JPY and AUD, seems to be on the turn, at least for a major correction – particularly in the “cross markets”

-Gold in EUR-terms is probably the “stand out” chart. It has recently broken below its 55-wma after anextreme run of 213 consecutive weekly closes above and could well correct another ~17%

-The other really interesting chart is Gold in INR-terms; potentially looks set to drop ~25% from current levels if a topping structure can complete (USDINR may also have formed a major top)

Pretty happy with this analysis so far. (:

WOW. How good was that?

[WhalerJoe]

"Gold is being maniplulated big time by the US Government, same with Silver through JP Morgan which run US Government positions . They are trying to make Gold and Silver look weak in order to put strength into the USD, This way the gerneral population are less concerned about the US economy"................

Agree there is massive manipulation, if any doubt it just look at the Libor scandal and HSBC felonious activity. &lt;deleted&gt;

Disagree that they give a fart about the general population. In fact, they are scrambling to force the usd into the toilet. The real motivation is interest rates. They are terrified of a bond bubble burst and need to keep a lid on gold to ease the pressure. The dead cat bounce in the economy is shoving rates up Barry and Bernies pie holes.

And that hastens the DISASTER, which at this point is inevitable, but they want to delay it.

[Paulo1]

"Gold is being maniplulated big time by the US Government, same with Silver through JP Morgan which run US Government positions . They are trying to make Gold and Silver look weak in order to put strength into the USD, This way the gerneral population are less concerned about the US economy"................

Agree there is massive manipulation, if any doubt it just look at the Libor scandal and HSBC felonious activity. &lt;deleted&gt;

Disagree that they give a fart about the general population. In fact, they are scrambling to force the usd into the toilet. The real motivation is interest rates. They are terrified of a bond bubble burst and need to keep a lid on gold to ease the pressure. The dead cat bounce in the economy is shoving rates up Barry and Bernies pie holes.

And that hastens the DISASTER, which at this point is inevitable, but they want to delay it.

Obsolutely. Gold had a $20 jump this morning.

[WhalerJoe]

"Gold is being maniplulated big time by the US Government, same with Silver through JP Morgan which run US Government positions . They are trying to make Gold and Silver look weak in order to put strength into the USD, This way the gerneral population are less concerned about the US economy"................

Agree there is massive manipulation, if any doubt it just look at the Libor scandal and HSBC felonious activity. &lt;deleted&gt;

Disagree that they give a fart about the general population. In fact, they are scrambling to force the usd into the toilet. The real motivation is interest rates. They are terrified of a bond bubble burst and need to keep a lid on gold to ease the pressure. The dead cat bounce in the economy is shoving rates up Barry and Bernies pie holes.

And that hastens the DISASTER, which at this point is inevitable, but they want to delay it.

Obsolutely. Gold had a $20 jump this morning.

This will be in play through 2014......

Dow 16000. Gold will leak to 1300-1200. Negative interest rates.

Then it is time to buy.

[Chivas]

"Gold is being maniplulated big time by the US Government, same with Silver through JP Morgan which run US Government positions . They are trying to make Gold and Silver look weak in order to put strength into the USD, This way the gerneral population are less concerned about the US economy"................

Agree there is massive manipulation, if any doubt it just look at the Libor scandal and HSBC felonious activity. &lt;deleted&gt;

Disagree that they give a fart about the general population. In fact, they are scrambling to force the usd into the toilet. The real motivation is interest rates. They are terrified of a bond bubble burst and need to keep a lid on gold to ease the pressure. The dead cat bounce in the economy is shoving rates up Barry and Bernies pie holes.

And that hastens the DISASTER, which at this point is inevitable, but they want to delay it.

Obsolutely. Gold had a $20 jump this morning.

Paulo thought I'd stick my head around the Door..........

Am totally convinced that very imminently a Massive Sell off of European Indices is about to happen...........

It looks to me that the Pros are building Short Positions across the board and are just waiting for the moment to implode the Market......The level of the FTSE alone is nothing short of ludicrous and there's a big drop coming !!

Have gone Short on Friday on Cac Ftse and Dax looking for a 1000 Points with wide Stops.........

[Paulo1]

"Gold is being maniplulated big time by the US Government, same with Silver through JP Morgan which run US Government positions . They are trying to make Gold and Silver look weak in order to put strength into the USD, This way the gerneral population are less concerned about the US economy"................

Agree there is massive manipulation, if any doubt it just look at the Libor scandal and HSBC felonious activity. &lt;deleted&gt;

Disagree that they give a fart about the general population. In fact, they are scrambling to force the usd into the toilet. The real motivation is interest rates. They are terrified of a bond bubble burst and need to keep a lid on gold to ease the pressure. The dead cat bounce in the economy is shoving rates up Barry and Bernies pie holes.

And that hastens the DISASTER, which at this point is inevitable, but they want to delay it.

Obsolutely. Gold had a $20 jump this morning.

Paulo thought I'd stick my head around the Door..........

Am totally convinced that very imminently a Massive Sell off of European Indices is about to happen...........

It looks to me that the Pros are building Short Positions across the board and are just waiting for the moment to implode the Market......The level of the FTSE alone is nothing short of ludicrous and there's a big drop coming !!

Have gone Short on Friday on Cac Ftse and Dax looking for a 1000 Points with wide Stops.........

Hope those stops are widw enough. I don't see a topping reversal pattern at present. Sorry for the late reply. Bit after the fact.

Dax 8150 zone for reversal point.

USDJPY (89.64) – Has now traded 49 consecutive sessions above the 21-dma (87.63) vs average 60 in extremes. Trend-defining pivot; 87.79-86.69

EURJPY (119.42) – Also stretched, but not quite at levels seen in March ‘12. Its trend-defining levels run 115.99-114.90 (21-dma, 2^nd Jan low, uptrend from 13^th Nov)

Nikkei (10,748) – Bearish key day reversal warns of some further pullback. First clear support 10,433-10,392 (21-dma and 4^th Jan high)

JPYKRW (11.87) – Starting to show some sign of stability above the post-crisis low from April ’10 (11.69). One to watch for JPY-related signals

USDKRW (1,064) – Bullish close break above the 21-dma (1,063). This following an extreme 96 consecutive sessions below, most since Dec ‘97

EURUSD (1.3316) – Consolidating in a tight range between 1.3256 & 1.3404. To keep uptrend momentum intact and avert - divergence, needs to break higher above 1.3404

EURCHF (1.2426) – Friday’s lack of a close above 1.2475 cautions for some consolidation. First clear pivot 1.2334-1.2297 (low from 16^th Jan/55-period ma on 4-hr charts)

GBPUSD (1.5840) – Testing the interim low from 15^th Nov at 1.5830. A close break below could potentially imply a double top has completed which targets 1.5353?

EURGBP (0.8405) – Gradually moving higher. It’s bullish head and shoulders bottom likely implies a move up to 0.8574 near the 200-wma at 0.8533

GBPINR (85.16) – An interesting cross which also looks fairly GBP-heavy. Last week broke below the uptrend from July ’11, and is testing the 55-wma as support at 84.78

German 10-year yields – Though choppy price action, gradually making its way higher towards its target of 1.66 (taken from the H&S base). Support below 1.47-45%

Edited January 23, 2013 by Paulo1

[Chivas]

They are wide enough Paulo but not to the Dax Level you indicate...........

Dax has dropped off slightly Tuesday and lower still Wednesday morning GMT.........

Profit taking no doubt although slightly lower across the board. Am confident on these trades. Lets see where we go......

[Paulo1]

They are wide enough Paulo but not to the Dax Level you indicate...........

Dax has dropped off slightly Tuesday and lower still Wednesday morning GMT.........

Profit taking no doubt although slightly lower across the board. Am confident on these trades. Lets see where we go......

I like the zones they are trading for a reversal. Am just waiting for a reversal candle across board as at present there seems some upward momentum. Could be extention reversal candles in the making.

The Dax level 7783.50 to 8153 is where i suspect the reversal will happen. CAC, DAX are showing divergence where as the FTSE isn't at present, however, there are two daily doji close's which implies an weakening market. Looking primed and agree with your opinion overall.

EURO FX futures: resistance 1.3400 , Support 1.3300.

HSBC Buys $876 Million Worth of Silver.

Edited January 23, 2013 by Paulo1

[tdm]

I can see no good reason for the dax and ftse to be at these lofty heights. These are the levels we saw before the good ol credit crunch, I don't think the issues are even close to being resolved. So I'd agree a major correction is due once this Santa rally is over, hope I'm smart enough to spot the turn.

[tdm]

Usd/Chf at interesting levels. Currently consolodating on daily and hourly support just above 100 week sma. 30 pip risk gives good potential reward if support holds.

[Chivas]

They are wide enough Paulo but not to the Dax Level you indicate...........

Dax has dropped off slightly Tuesday and lower still Wednesday morning GMT.........

Profit taking no doubt although slightly lower across the board. Am confident on these trades. Lets see where we go......

I like the zones they are trading for a reversal. Am just waiting for a reversal candle across board as at present there seems some upward momentum. Could be extention reversal candles in the making.

The Dax level 7783.50 to 8153 is where i suspect the reversal will happen. CAC, DAX are showing divergence where as the FTSE isn't at present, however, there are two daily doji close's which implies an weakening market. Looking primed and agree with your opinion overall.

EURO FX futures: resistance 1.3400 , Support 1.3300.

HSBC Buys $876 Million Worth of Silver.

Has the Market turned.............??

Excellent Chicago PMI today which elevated Indices but very short lived........

Cac Ftse and Dax all dropping as they did Wednesday....

Non Farm Payroll 13.30 GMT Friday will be interesting...

[AbhiramaDas]

Hi!

What are your latest thoughts on EURJPY?

And any trader from Pattaya here?

[Paulo1]

USDJPY (94.32) – Another sharp move higher, so far ignoring last Fri’s weekly indecision. Interesting to see how price reacts near 94.99

EURJPY (126.45) – Bounces above the April ’11 high 123.33. Focus here on the topside 127.71-93 (high from last wk and Apr ’10)

AUDUSD (1.0256) – Closes below 16 Nov low 1.0287. Likely opens for further weakness towards 1.0170-49, prior range lows from 25 Jul ’12 onwards

EURAUD (1.3071) – Appears like a triangle/pennant forming from 1^stFeb high. Overall bias is bullish above 1.2807. Watching 1.3133-57

USDKRW (1092) – Waiting to confirm Friday’s poss. triangle consolidation break. Gives a target of 1,111 near Feb ’12 interim low

JPYKRW (11.58) – A series of wkly indecision patterns have developed above the Apr ’10 low of 11.69. Slowly starting to break this pivot support

USDSGD (1.2417) – Testing a big cluster of resistance at 1.2389-1.2419 (200-dma/Oct ’11 lows). A break above would likely open the topside

USDINR (53.85) – Trading up towards 54.01-54.04 pivot resistance. Broader bearish signals would suggest this area should likely hold the topside

EURUSD (1.3406) – So far bouncing from 1.3345-1.3335 (200-mavg on 4-hr chart, and poss. ABC target). Confirmation of a base > 1.3486

EURCHF (1.2337) – Looking constructive above a recent test of the 200-per ma/4-hr charts 1.2277. Confirmation above 1.2424 (downtrend from 18 Jan)

US10yy (1.96%) – Coming into support at 1.93-1.92% near uptrend from 6 Dec ’12 and 100-per ma/4hr. Likely quite positive if this holds the lows

Gold (1,647) – Breaks sharply lower from a triangle consolidation. Gives an initial target of 1,629 near the reaction highs from Jun/Jul ‘12