Stockmarket Trading, Forex, Commodities.

[Paulo1]

Please Paulo1, keep it coming, I really appreciate your advice.

Sorry for not keeping up to date with thread. i hope you are all well .

Tomorrow 28/july/09. I will begin posting live trading signals for about one month

My aim is to show the people here how to trade live by visually seeing the signals live on your own system

The signal will be intra day, however there will also be longer term plays targeting 200 to 1000 pips.

I will not take any responsibility for any losses through these signals. Trade live at your own risk. Also at times I will post a reason why I entered the trade, apart from that there will be little explanation. I want the pips to do the talking , not me.

When i begin trading I will post I am here or something, and when I have finished posting the live trades for the day I will let you all know, nothing worse than sitting in front of a computer waiting for nothing. Also please be aware that we here in Thailand are at the whimmes of the Internet.

Number 1 Trade 27/07/2009

EUR/CAD

Timeframe daily/4hr hold

entry long @ 1.5375 or 1.5415 stop 1.5315 target 250 to 1000 pips

comment. low liquidity pair, big move expected. this is not a rush and bust trade, so relax wait and set your poiton correctly. If a break out appears, I will post your next best entry.

I have entered at the above.

.

Had many problems trying to open this page this morning. So I don't know if these live signals will work through here, as you have at most 5 minutes to place the trades.

This is what happened.

Buy EUR/USD at 1.4254 SL 1.4228 TP 1.4304

Sell USD/CHF at 1.0698 SL 1.0724 TP 1.0648

Buy GBP/USD at 1.6495 SL 1.6469 TP 1.6555

Buy USD/JPY at 95.10 SL 94.84 TP 95.60

Profit in about 30 minutes.

EUR/USD at 1.4268 with 14 pips profit

Exit USD/CHF at 1.0686with 12 pips profit

Exit GBP/USD at 1.6525 with 30 pips profit

USD/JPY at 95.16 with 6 pips profit

LIVE TRADES FOR 29 july All

Sell EUR/USD at 1.4176 SL 1.4202 TP 1.4126

Buy USD/CHF at 1.0745 SL 1.0719 TP 1.0795

Sell GBP/USD at 1.6442 SL 1.6468 TP 1.6382

Sell USD/JPY at 94.35 SL 94.61 TP 93.85

GBP/USD hit TP 1.6385 with 60 pips profit

EUR/USD hit TP 1.4132 with 50 pips profit

Exit USD/CHF at 1.0788 with 47 pips profit

Ex USD/JPY at 94.087

+185 pips today

I had a Trader from the forum here today trade these signals with me. He is very happy. Perhaps he will post something here.

Next signals Thursday, 30 July 2009, around 11.45 AM

Update on the EURCAD.

Stops were hit last night at 1.5315

I have re-entered this trade today at 1.5325 and stop is now 1.5296. I have also taking 2 trades long on this today total of pips 70 profit, my stop is about 30 pips, so that means i am free carried free on 2 full lots.

i would be surprised if it can hold the break to the downside last night.

AUD/USD had a very nice pinbar on the Daily this morning

Reasons for entry.

1. pinbar on daily

2.round number .8300

3. fib 61.8

4. stop place placement very good

There is plently around at present, i don,t have the time to post them all, but have a look at these.

ALL JPY crosses, NZD/USD is prime for a nice short , I have entered this also at 6585 stop 6650.

AUDUSD chart attached.

EUR/CAD , we have broken 2 solid supports and one trendline violation to the down side.no more entries on this until we see firm direction

Have entered the NZD/USD short, GPBNZD long 2.5000, NZDJPY short from 62.82, present profit on those trades $3777 USD

Will post the Live signals in the next 20 minutes , as soon as you see them enter a market order and getb you positions set.

[Paulo1]

GPB/USD just got stop.

NEW ORDER.

Buy GBP/USD at 1.6410 SL 1.6384 TP 1.6470

[Paulo1]

GPB/USD just got stop.

NEW ORDER.

Buy GBP/USD at 1.6410 SL 1.6384 TP 1.6470

GBP/USD HIT TARGET 60 PIPS PROFIT.

The chart posted is an example of divergence. Notice the RSI and MACD is falling while the currency is still climbing. Divergence acts as an early warning signal that a trend is about to change.

[Paulo1]

GPB/USD just got stop.

NEW ORDER.

Buy GBP/USD at 1.6410 SL 1.6384 TP 1.6470

GBP/USD HIT TARGET 60 PIPS PROFIT.

The chart posted is an example of divergence. Notice the RSI and MACD is falling while the currency is still climbing. Divergence acts as an early warning signal that a trend is about to change.

LIVE SIGNALS Will be posted shortly

[Paulo1]

GPB/USD just got stop.

NEW ORDER.

Buy GBP/USD at 1.6410 SL 1.6384 TP 1.6470

GBP/USD HIT TARGET 60 PIPS PROFIT.

The chart posted is an example of divergence. Notice the RSI and MACD is falling while the currency is still climbing. Divergence acts as an early warning signal that a trend is about to change.

July 2009+761+463+1,339+619+3,182

LIVE SIGNALS Will be posted shortly

Live signals are not being posted for some reason.

u/e u/j g/p u/chf total

July 2009+761 +463 +1,339 +619 +3,182

Edited August 1, 2009 by Paulo1

[likewise]

Nice pips there Paulo, myself I average between 500 to 750 pips/monthly.

I trade mainly EY and EU.

[Paulo1]

Nice pips there Paulo, myself I average between 500 to 750 pips/monthly.

I trade mainly EY and EU.

Hi likewise,

You too are doing very well. Anyone making money in FX is doing well. its means you are in the 5% THAT DON"T LOOSE. I think monday is going to bring some good entries.

[likewise]

All ready for it Most lose goes they don't have the patience to either learn or wait for good entries and of course over leverage their account.

[Paulo1]

All ready for it Most lose goes they don't have the patience to either learn or wait for good entries and of course over leverage their account.

Short trade tip to watch is the CAD/JPY

[Paulo1]

All ready for it Most lose goes they don't have the patience to either learn or wait for good entries and of course over leverage their account.

Short trade tip to watch is the CAD/JPY

CAD/JPY.

Wait for confirmation of direction. NOTICE THE DOJI????????????????????

[likewise]

Looking at the chart

[myfriendu]

thanks paulo,took the cad above dp and up, 70 odd pips as of now.my first trade from you

[Paulo1]

thanks paulo,took the cad above dp and up, 70 odd pips as of now.my first trade from you

Nice to hear.

EURAUD look to buy at support daily or at S1 on the 1hr

Sorry for not posting alotof trades. Been a crazy week wiyh NFP and news.

I will post my this comming week

[Paulo1]

thanks paulo,took the cad above dp and up, 70 odd pips as of now.my first trade from you

Nice to hear.

EURAUD look to buy at support daily or at S1 on the 1hr

Sorry for not posting alotof trades. Been a crazy week wiyh NFP and news.

I will post my this comming week

Last week i began buying Sugar contracts on CME Futures. Also Copper is interesing at present. CSR am Australian Listed company is a good below 2.00

EURAUD , after posting made a 100 pip move, hope you all got onto it.

[myfriendu]

got 62 pips,thank you very much.nice to win for a change

[Abrak]

I hope you can see that boasts about buying x yesterday and selling it today at a profit is totally worthless. Predictions are a bit better but they should be accompanied by a reason. X is going up isnt really much use.

I just wonder if anyone has a reason why a particular currency is undervalued by 20% and why. Please dont use PPP because that is beyond obvious and nearly always explains why the currency is overvalued on fundamentals.

[Paulo1]

got 62 pips,thank you very much.nice to win for a change

No problem. Happy for you. Will try to post some live trades Monday 11.30 to 12.30. Four signals.

ASX. Strong Buys CSR, MSF

speccy SMN .025 long term hold look for 50.

Uranium . Best buy PEN .035

Gold EYE needs time

Oil KOG needs time and greedy management, But very good projects

MSF is illiquid and there has being some forced sellers who are probably not done. So wait and try and get right price.

CSR standout buy.

See sugar last couple of days?? Up 6% again last night.

CSR up 7% Fri, will be up another 5-10% mon

Sugar is about to spike. 50% upside in spot sugar price, as physical shortage plays out with no supply response possible until August next year at the earliest.

I am buying Sugar Futures.

USD/CAD is worth a close eye.

GPB/JPY have a look at the last Candle/Bar the daily chart. Trade Plan. If breaks and holds 163.214 i will enter long. if it does not break enter short 163.090 stp above 163.214. If retraces to 161.576 will watch closely for entry signal . 159.879 is a huge number. Alot of emotion around this number. I have been long this pair since 15th july at 152.148

EUR/GPB buy at 8484 or best buy 8458

EURAUD might drop out the sky now

NZDUSD short but try to enter 6761 stp 6829 Candle hint

There was alot of action Friday night. Sometimes its best to let it settle before entering.

Just been through my pairs again using different analysis and have about 11 very good signals.

[Paulo1]

I hope you can see that boasts about buying x yesterday and selling it today at a profit is totally worthless. Predictions are a bit better but they should be accompanied by a reason. X is going up isnt really much use.

I just wonder if anyone has a reason why a particular currency is undervalued by 20% and why. Please dont use PPP because that is beyond obvious and nearly always explains why the currency is overvalued on fundamentals.

READ THE THREAD AND YOU WILL SEE PLENTY OF EXPLANATIONS.

Perhaps you could bless us all with something positive to say rather than negatives.

As for your question. 20% it has sevearl annswers one being Interest Rate Differential = forward points.

[Abrak]

I hope you can see that boasts about buying x yesterday and selling it today at a profit is totally worthless. Predictions are a bit better but they should be accompanied by a reason. X is going up isnt really much use.

I just wonder if anyone has a reason why a particular currency is undervalued by 20% and why. Please dont use PPP because that is beyond obvious and nearly always explains why the currency is overvalued on fundamentals.

READ THE THREAD AND YOU WILL SEE PLENTY OF EXPLANATIONS.

Perhaps you could bless us all with something positive to say rather than negatives.

As for your question. 20% it has sevearl annswers one being Interest Rate Differential = forward points.

As I agree many suggestions are accompanied by reasoning, I was merely whinging about the ones that werent.

As for not contributing that is also true. Unfortunately my investment philosophy is to generally trade against sentiment and momentum in order to achieve long term gains even at the expense of short term losses. So my ideas in most cases may be useless for traders.

For instance GBP is going up but I now think it has had most of its bounce (from US$1.3756) and would like to switch into Nor Krona (which is going down but look at the credit default swaps) or something else. Based on momentum it looks a terrible short term trade but it should make money on a 6-12month view.

Sometimes I do have short term trading ideas - when GBP fell to 1.37 from 2.06 it was really bound to have either a technical rally or a fundamental one - I guess if I cant think of a decent idea it is better not to mention one than dream one up.

My only other thought is that with M2 growing at less than an annualised 3% it doesnt really make sense to be bullish of asset prices at all at the moment.

[PCA]

I hope you can see that boasts about buying x yesterday and selling it today at a profit is totally worthless. Predictions are a bit better but they should be accompanied by a reason. X is going up isnt really much use.

I just wonder if anyone has a reason why a particular currency is undervalued by 20% and why. Please dont use PPP because that is beyond obvious and nearly always explains why the currency is overvalued on fundamentals.

READ THE THREAD AND YOU WILL SEE PLENTY OF EXPLANATIONS.

Perhaps you could bless us all with something positive to say rather than negatives.

As for your question. 20% it has sevearl annswers one being Interest Rate Differential = forward points.

As I agree many suggestions are accompanied by reasoning, I was merely whinging about the ones that werent.

As for not contributing that is also true. Unfortunately my investment philosophy is to generally trade against sentiment and momentum in order to achieve long term gains even at the expense of short term losses. So my ideas in most cases may be useless for traders.

For instance GBP is going up but I now think it has had most of its bounce (from US$1.3756) and would like to switch into Nor Krona (which is going down but look at the credit default swaps) or something else. Based on momentum it looks a terrible short term trade but it should make money on a 6-12month view.

Sometimes I do have short term trading ideas - when GBP fell to 1.37 from 2.06 it was really bound to have either a technical rally or a fundamental one - I guess if I cant think of a decent idea it is better not to mention one than dream one up.

My only other thought is that with M2 growing at less than an annualised 3% it doesnt really make sense to be bullish of asset prices at all at the moment.

why participate then, obviously this is traders' area and if you ask for reasoning and don't understand the terms just keep out of this thread, easy no? Active traders make a lot more than you can dream about BTW your ideas short, medium or long term are pointless as technical chart reading is playing the music for a trader....

[Abrak]

why participate then, obviously this is traders' area and if you ask for reasoning and don't understand the terms just keep out of this thread, easy no? Active traders make a lot more than you can dream about BTW your ideas short, medium or long term are pointless as technical chart reading is playing the music for a trader....

First of all while I will admit my method of investing may not be any better than yours dont think there is any evidence to the contrary. One of my stocks (not an option) has gone up 10x since March so I hope you would agree that I can claim possible returns in line with 'active traders make a lot more money than you dream about.' Personally I think that punters just tend to buy at the top and sell at the bottom so any vaguely consistent investment strategy will tend to make money. (Although I have to admit that I havent met many 'active traders' who have accumulated significant wealth.)

Anyway I do participate because while I am a long term fundamental investor, I dont ignore the trading arguments especially for short term timing. I imagine you do the opposite and recognize when something is 3 or 4 times overvalued any short term trading gain is outweighed by large fundamental risk.

And your 'technical chart reading is playing the music for a trader' is the sort of comment I like to hear. To me people who sell assets that are obviously 4 or 5 times undervalued are simply morons whatever the chicken entrails might tell them - in the long run share prices are 100% correlated to their fundamentals.

P.S. While claiming that active traders make more money than fundamental investors can even dream of you should at least appreciate that Warren Buffett is probably worth more than them all put together,

Edited August 8, 2009 by Abrak

[Paulo1]

why participate then, obviously this is traders' area and if you ask for reasoning and don't understand the terms just keep out of this thread, easy no? Active traders make a lot more than you can dream about BTW your ideas short, medium or long term are pointless as technical chart reading is playing the music for a trader....

First of all while I will admit my method of investing may not be any better than yours dont think there is any evidence to the contrary. One of my stocks (not an option) has gone up 10x since March so I hope you would agree that I can claim possible returns in line with 'active traders make a lot more money than you dream about.' Personally I think that punters just tend to buy at the top and sell at the bottom so any vaguely consistent investment strategy will tend to make money. (Although I have to admit that I havent met many 'active traders' who have accumulated significant wealth.)

Anyway I do participate because while I am a long term fundamental investor, I dont ignore the trading arguments especially for short term timing. I imagine you do the opposite and recognize when something is 3 or 4 times overvalued any short term trading gain is outweighed by large fundamental risk.

And your 'technical chart reading is playing the music for a trader' is the sort of comment I like to hear. To me people who sell assets that are obviously 4 or 5 times undervalued are simply morons whatever the chicken entrails might tell them - in the long run share prices are 100% correlated to their fundamentals.

P.S. While claiming that active traders make more money than fundamental investors can even dream of you should at least appreciate that Warren Buffett is probably worth more than them all put together,

I don't dissagree with your investing strategy., However your strategy is investing, Not trading. And this thread is about trading and not getting caught up in all the fundamentals, as they are reflected on the chart anyway.

If you trade Forex, interest rate differential is your main fundamental. GDP, NFP , PMI and so forth.

As for my lack of explantions you are very wrong in that statement. If you read the thread you will see plently. The reason my explanations have been less of recently is to encourage others to look more deeply at the currency etc and learn for themselves.

I have no idea what you are looking for here. You also make a statement about me posting late trades after the fact. That in part is true as I do not have time to post all my trades here all the time, however if that was totally true why are other traders making money from my posts? I wonder if your were having a bad day when making these statements. Or perhaps you are the jealous type who can not bare to see others making money where you are not. Why else would you be looking here. Apart from one other person at the begining of this thread YOU are the only other person to post negatives here. So, its probably not a bad idea to move to another thread and cast your opinions as PCA suggested too. (thanks PCA)

As for making money. Fundy vs Tech, who cares?? I am sure Mr Buffet does not. Number rule, Don't loose money, Number Two, don't forget rule one So if you trade 100 pips per day profit o 1 FX lot = 1000 USD per day ,do the maths? if you trade 5 lots? and make 100 pips per day each lot, you are making making excess of 1 million per year. One of my traders trade 50 lots at once and will enter about 4 to 10 trades per month, Last months biggest win as 130k and biggest loss 15k. Not Bad. He averages 400k per month using exactly the same as i teach.

Hapy Trading or Investing. Whatever it is you do.

Edited August 9, 2009 by Paulo1

[Abrak]

Paulo1,

None of my criticisms were particularly aimed at you.

However, I think that saying this thread is about ignoring fundamentals based presumably on rational expectations or the efficient market hypothesis is somewhat unfair. Do you really believe that house prices in the US reflected their fundamentals at their peak. Or that a stock that went 10x in 5 months did so because its fundamentals improved 10x. I am a saltwater economist. Although I have a bias for fundamentals, I also respect short term trading arguments. This is particularly true of currencies where the concept that I know better than the market price is ridiculous. I usually invest in equities though.

Bottom line is that just because you are ONLY interested in trading arguments it doesnt mean that this thread is of no interest to a more fundamental investor that looks at trading arguments to try and get his timing right.

Isnt it even possible that a trader also bears in mind the fundamentals. I mean take gold there is an almost 100% reverse correlation with comex futures and price over the last few years. To bet against that would seem very risky. Still I will accept the argument that fundamentals are useless to traders and will refrain from making them - I will still follow the thread though as I do recognize the validity of short term trading arguments in terms of getting your timing right.

Edited August 9, 2009 by Abrak

[myfriendu]

abrak start your own thread,as pca said this is for traders,and as you have rightly said that your posts are useless to traders who use t/a and trade off the charts.see you,have a nice day,im sure your a good guy

Edited August 9, 2009 by myfriendu

[lannarebirth]

abrak start your own thread,as pca said this is for traders,and as you have rightly said what your posts are useless to traders who use t/a.see you,have a nice day

One thing you might consider. If the thread were solely for the benefit of traders and is devoid of fundamental or other economic considerations, it wouldn't belong in this forum at all. Plenty of trading forums.

[myfriendu]

so whats your point,,if you want fundies post and start a thread,i will post,my feeling of what might happen and why.i have respect for paulo,so only want to keep this in context.dont want to fight,whats your problem.its paulos thread up to him.what use is your post.your man is talking to meat eaters,when he is a veggie,we eat at different places,pm me and keep this thread free,of crap.please

[likewise]

Maybe he doesn't understand that there is a difference between fundamental and technical analysis?

[jcon]

traders who use t/a

awesome! this thread is about tits and ass??? Count me in!

Edited August 10, 2009 by jcon

[Paulo1]

Maybe he doesn't understand that there is a difference between fundamental and technical analysis?

Cheers Guys.

SMN up 22% today.

Also noticed on the News suger farmers are having there worse year for over 7 yrs

Currency. Beware today as we follow the USA close, so direction is limited to Eurozone opening

USDCAD Iam looking short at 1.08255 Stp 1.08327 Target 1.07686 be aware there is 1.8000 number below which could slow this down.I actually think this is closer to a long reversal, just getting an entry at support is the trick. If you go short get your stop to in the money quickly as it could reverse ot 1.8000.

GPBJPY ?????????? all over it

NZDUSD Candle resistance at 6744 and monthly R1 6765

USD/JPY short. but no confirmation as there is alot of support below.

I am almost finished analysing USDCHF USDJPY GPBUSD and EURUSD. these will be live. just waiting for momentuen to build.

[Paulo1]

Maybe he doesn't understand that there is a difference between fundamental and technical analysis?

Cheers Guys.

SMN up 22% today.

Also noticed on the News suger farmers are having there worse year for over 7 yrs

Currency. Beware today as we follow the USA close, so direction is limited to Eurozone opening

USDCAD Iam looking short at 1.08255 Stp 1.08327 Target 1.07686 be aware there is 1.8000 number below which could slow this down.I actually think this is closer to a long reversal, just getting an entry at support is the trick. If you go short get your stop to in the money quickly as it could reverse ot 1.8000.

GPBJPY ?????????? all over it

NZDUSD Candle resistance at 6744 and monthly R1 6765

USD/JPY short. but no confirmation as there is alot of support below.

I am almost finished analysing USDCHF USDJPY GPBUSD and EURUSD. these will be live. just waiting for momentuen to build.

Sell EUR/USD at 1.4204 SL 1.4230 TP 1.4154

Buy USD/CHF at 1.0809 SL 1.0783 TP 1.0859

Sell GBP/USD at 1.6714 SL 1.6740 TP 1.6654

Sell USD/JPY at 97.24 SL 97.50 TP 96.74