What Will Happen To The Baht?

[Xangsamhua]

Can the baht sustain its value or is it going to go down the tube, same as '97? If so, is there any good currency to change it into? Or anything to buy with with it? Wife won't agree to trading in e.g. platinum over the net. Likes gold because she can see it, or currency because it's in the bank.

In 97 we bought teak furniture because we could use it and take it back to Oz and sell it. Not planning on going anywhere for a while, though.

[MJP]

Can the baht sustain its value or is it going to go down the tube, same as '97? If so, is there any good currency to change it into? Or anything to buy with with it? Wife won't agree to trading in e.g. platinum over the net. Likes gold because she can see it, or currency because it's in the bank.

In 97 we bought teak furniture because we could use it and take it back to Oz and sell it. Not planning on going anywhere for a while, though.

Yes!

Buy Great British Pounds and tell all your friends.

Physical gold. Hold sufficient currency for basic day to day living for the next year. Everywhere is screwed and it's not going to even bottom out until 2012-2014 is my best guess. Don't go for ETF 'paper' gold. It's the next big con to be exposed I reckon.

The random babblings of MJP do not constitute financial advice.

[VegasVic]

Can the baht sustain its value or is it going to go down the tube, same as '97? If so, is there any good currency to change it into? Or anything to buy with with it? Wife won't agree to trading in e.g. platinum over the net. Likes gold because she can see it, or currency because it's in the bank.

In 97 we bought teak furniture because we could use it and take it back to Oz and sell it. Not planning on going anywhere for a while, though.

Yes!

Buy Great British Pounds and tell all your friends.

Physical gold. Hold sufficient currency for basic day to day living for the next year. Everywhere is screwed and it's not going to even bottom out until 2012-2014 is my best guess. Don't go for ETF 'paper' gold. It's the next big con to be exposed I reckon.

The random babblings of MJP do not constitute financial advice.

The great british pound? It's good to see some folks here on thaivisa haven't lost their sense of humor In answer to the OP's question, the U.S. Dollar short term (the next 2-3 months) and the Japanese Yen longer term! Gold may have some tough sledding for the next year or so, but when inflation does eventualy return then the shiny stuff will rise again

[Chang_paarp]

The Aussie dollar is undervalued at the moment and cheap to buy in a number of currencies, plus you probably still have accounts in the currency so no added paperwork and complications. Should have bought a week or so ago when it was 21.5B/$Au , it was a killer coming the other way.

[Naam]

Can the baht sustain its value or is it going to go down the tube, same as '97? If so, is there any good currency to change it into? Or anything to buy with with it? Wife won't agree to trading in e.g. platinum over the net. Likes gold because she can see it, or currency because it's in the bank.

In 97 we bought teak furniture because we could use it and take it back to Oz and sell it. Not planning on going anywhere for a while, though.

Yes!

Buy Great British Pounds and tell all your friends.

Physical gold. Hold sufficient currency for basic day to day living for the next year. Everywhere is screwed and it's not going to even bottom out until 2012-2014 is my best guess. Don't go for ETF 'paper' gold. It's the next big con to be exposed I reckon.

The random babblings of MJP do not constitute financial advice.

The great british pound? It's good to see some folks here on thaivisa haven't lost their sense of humor In answer to the OP's question, the U.S. Dollar short term (the next 2-3 months) and the Japanese Yen longer term! Gold may have some tough sledding for the next year or so, but when inflation does eventualy return then the shiny stuff will rise again

i tend to agree on the Dollar with you Vic but have strong doubts as far as JPY is concerned. holding gold is for rich people but not for poor retirees (like me) who struggle to make ends meet

[snuggzzz]

The GBP is still falling, in fact it's not worth investing in Sterling at the moment, that's why Gordon Brown has been running around the world with the begging bowl..............

[Scott]

So, do some of you think the Baht will remain reasonably stable? Will it hold it's value--at least here?

There seems to be little information on how the current economic situation is going to effect Thailand. The news here is somewhat biased.

I know this country has a large capacity to 're-absorb' it's population back into the villages and farms, possibly preventing some of the problems that some countries are/will have.

[Naam]

The GBP is still falling, in fact it's not worth investing in Sterling at the moment, that's why Gordon Brown has been running around the world with the begging bowl..............

there's something i would like that my british friends explain to me. nobody talks about Tony B. Liar (also known as G.W.'s BOOT cum @ss-LICKER) who was in charge for years of The Greatest Empire on Earth™ and ran the country down in each every respect. but the blame is now on Gordon.

would you please care to elaborate what exactly is/are Mr. Brown's fault and shortcomings? was he the one who claimed that SaddaMn Hussein was poised to eradicate the empire within 45 minutes with his non existing weapons of mass destruction?

please enlighten me

[Forkinhades]

The British pound has dropped 28% since July, If I could find a buyer for my rental property which is worth 3.5 mill baht, and has a tennant signed up for a year. I would definetly sell, convert to Sterling, and just sit with the Sterling for 12-18 months, then convert back to baht. To put into more perspective, my Thai rental home has risen in value (Sterling) of around £15000 since 14th July, so if I sell now and wait for the baht to get back to mid 60's, I would make £25,000 - £30,000 profit. Last year the Dollar was very weak, Credit crunch hitting the USA first, now the dollar seems to be recovering. So hopefully sterling will go the same way? I am no expert, and hope my Math equates. No doubt someone will answer here.

[lannarebirth]

The British pound has dropped 28% since July, If I could find a buyer for my rental property which is worth 3.5 mill baht, and has a tennant signed up for a year. I would definetly sell, convert to Sterling, and just sit with the Sterling for 12-18 months, then convert back to baht. To put into more perspective, my Thai rental home has risen in value (Sterling) of around £15000 since 14th July, so if I sell now and wait for the baht to get back to mid 60's, I would make £25,000 - £30,000 profit. Last year the Dollar was very weak, Credit crunch hitting the USA first, now the dollar seems to be recovering. So hopefully sterling will go the same way? I am no expert, and hope my Math equates. No doubt someone will answer here.

True enough the $USD was very weak last year, as it was the 5 years previous to that.

[IMA_FARANG]

Can the baht sustain its value or is it going to go down the tube, same as '97? If so, is there any good currency to change it into? Or anything to buy with with it? Wife won't agree to trading in e.g. platinum over the net. Likes gold because she can see it, or currency because it's in the bank.

In 97 we bought teak furniture because we could use it and take it back to Oz and sell it. Not planning on going anywhere for a while, though.

I'm hoping the baht goes up to about 40 to the dollar, but I'm not sure if it will. I love how you guys seem to be able to decide what currency you are to 'invest' in. I'm just a poor working slob, that is paid in U.S. dollars, and supports a Thai family that spends my money as baht. Sure would be nice to have some "extra' cash to speculate with, but I don't have that luxury.

When I first came to Thailand in 1977, the baht was about 25 baht to 1 dollar. I've also seen it in 1997 or 1998 when it was over 40 to a dollar. Either way, I have to make a living for myself and the family.

Right now I'm just happy the baht is back in the 35 to a dollar range instead of that 31.8 a few months ago. I send dollars from the U.S. to a bank in Thiland for my family that are converted into baht.

[beginner]

The British pound has dropped 28% since July, If I could find a buyer for my rental property which is worth 3.5 mill baht, and has a tennant signed up for a year. I would definetly sell, convert to Sterling, and just sit with the Sterling for 12-18 months, then convert back to baht. To put into more perspective, my Thai rental home has risen in value (Sterling) of around £15000 since 14th July, so if I sell now and wait for the baht to get back to mid 60's, I would make £25,000 - £30,000 profit. Last year the Dollar was very weak, Credit crunch hitting the USA first, now the dollar seems to be recovering. So hopefully sterling will go the same way? I am no expert, and hope my Math equates. No doubt someone will answer here.

I think your Math equates but as you say "IF I could find a buyer".

There is possibly a problem here. When you purchased you no doubt compared its price to prevailing UK prices. In July 3.5m bt computed at around 49k UKP. What would 49k buy for your money in the UK? Probably not a lot.

Now put yourself in the position of a newly arrived buyer from the UK. 3.5m GBP now computes at around 68k UKP (using your figures 68 less 28% = 49).

So what would 68k UKP buy for you NOW in the UK? The property snake.co.uk shows many city centre apartments selling for not much more. Some previous Buy To Let city centre flats have been auctioned off by banks for even less. The collapse in prices is at a very early stage in the UK. Another 25% to go according to some and even then the market will be fully priced.

That 3.5m bt condo no longer looks such a bargain. To shift it at the perceived 'good value price' of 49k UKP you will need to price it at around 2.5m bt. Then you will get your money back. In the future you may get less but who can foretell?...not even the Great Naam.

[JimsKnight]

The GBP is still falling, in fact it's not worth investing in Sterling at the moment, that's why Gordon Brown has been running around the world with the begging bowl..............

there's something i would like that my british friends explain to me. nobody talks about Tony B. Liar (also known as G.W.'s BOOT cum @ss-LICKER) who was in charge for years of The Greatest Empire on Earth™ and ran the country down in each every respect. but the blame is now on Gordon.

would you please care to elaborate what exactly is/are Mr. Brown's fault and shortcomings? was he the one who claimed that SaddaMn Hussein was poised to eradicate the empire within 45 minutes with his non existing weapons of mass destruction?

please enlighten me

Browns shortcomings...

Selling off the ENTIRE gold reserves of the UK - When the gold was at record lows. So bang went the countries 'last ditch' economic clout.

Sneaking through laws that now mean expats can only remain in the UK for 90 days (from 180) otherwise they lose tax free entitlement.

Plundering the pension fund.

Those are three just off the top of my head.

Tony Blair is a gimp, but Gordon Brown isn't much better, if at all.

Oh and to rub salt in the wounds he hasn't even been elected by the people, he's just been handed the 'crown' from ole' Tony Blair due to the secret agreements and God knows what else goes on in the looney bin they call Parliament.

[chiang mai]

The GBP is still falling, in fact it's not worth investing in Sterling at the moment, that's why Gordon Brown has been running around the world with the begging bowl..............

there's something i would like that my british friends explain to me. nobody talks about Tony B. Liar (also known as G.W.'s BOOT cum @ss-LICKER) who was in charge for years of The Greatest Empire on Earth™ and ran the country down in each every respect. but the blame is now on Gordon.

would you please care to elaborate what exactly is/are Mr. Brown's fault and shortcomings? was he the one who claimed that SaddaMn Hussein was poised to eradicate the empire within 45 minutes with his non existing weapons of mass destruction?

please enlighten me

Tony and Gordon were always viewed as a pair and Gordon was always charged with responsibility for fiance while Tony did the leadership "stuff" - if there is anything wrong with the finances of the UK today, (cough cough) it is deemed to be because of Gordon's mishandling of those affairs. In all fairness to Gordon however, even though he did increase direct and indirect taxes on the population, beyond the limits of any other Chancellor in history, and even though he frittered away all the revenue he received through taxes and didn't save any of it, and even though he created so many new local and central government jobs, some say he's an alright bloke, personally I do not!

Now, if you want to talk about the raft of social ills that stalk the country and its population, that would be clearly down to Tony via his leadership role, not Gordon per se. In summary then, Gordon ran down the country's finances whilst Tony ran everything else down, including the monarchy and then escaped to the lecture circuit at £100k a pop and bought several large houses. Bet he never makes a knighthood though.

[spiderman2]

JimsKnight.

Im not sure where you get your information from but "Big Brother" Brown ended the days of boom and bust over 10 years ago, well Tory boom and bust.

Youve obviously misinterpreted Nulabour newspeak.

Edited November 16, 2008 by spiderman2

[spiderman2]

Chang Mai

You have perfectly described what the 2 fukwits have been upto in the last 10 years or so, only thing is IMO Gordon is still in charge of the economy, or at least he wont let Darling have full control.

But have no fear Gordons been going round the world telling everyone how to run their economies, he really does have delusions of granduer.

[AlexLah]

Ooooops Brown going around with his begging bowl.....

Chinese Superior is Delighted by UK’s Decision to Accept Beijing's Rule Over Tibet

The UK has announced it will accept the ruling of Tibet by the Chinese government. The move has been warmly received by officials in Beijing. It is unknown if this is connected to PM Brown's effort to bring China into new world financial agreement.

[spiderman2]

Ooooops Brown going around with his begging bowl.....

Chinese Superior is Delighted by UK's Decision to Accept Beijing's Rule Over Tibet

The UK has announced it will accept the ruling of Tibet by the Chinese government. The move has been warmly received by officials in Beijing. It is unknown if this is connected to PM Brown's effort to bring China into new world financial agreement.

Aw well at least he didnt attend the Olympics, isnt that protest enough.

[VegasVic]

The British pound has dropped 28% since July, If I could find a buyer for my rental property which is worth 3.5 mill baht, and has a tennant signed up for a year. I would definetly sell, convert to Sterling, and just sit with the Sterling for 12-18 months, then convert back to baht. To put into more perspective, my Thai rental home has risen in value (Sterling) of around £15000 since 14th July, so if I sell now and wait for the baht to get back to mid 60's, I would make £25,000 - £30,000 profit. Last year the Dollar was very weak, Credit crunch hitting the USA first, now the dollar seems to be recovering. So hopefully sterling will go the same way? I am no expert, and hope my Math equates. No doubt someone will answer here.

I think your Math equates but as you say "IF I could find a buyer".

There is possibly a problem here. When you purchased you no doubt compared its price to prevailing UK prices. In July 3.5m bt computed at around 49k UKP. What would 49k buy for your money in the UK? Probably not a lot.

Now put yourself in the position of a newly arrived buyer from the UK. 3.5m GBP now computes at around 68k UKP (using your figures 68 less 28% = 49).

So what would 68k UKP buy for you NOW in the UK? The property snake.co.uk shows many city centre apartments selling for not much more. Some previous Buy To Let city centre flats have been auctioned off by banks for even less. The collapse in prices is at a very early stage in the UK. Another 25% to go according to some and even then the market will be fully priced.

That 3.5m bt condo no longer looks such a bargain. To shift it at the perceived 'good value price' of 49k UKP you will need to price it at around 2.5m bt. Then you will get your money back. In the future you may get less but who can foretell?...not even the Great Naam.

Good post! Its good to see some common sense and rational thought used here on thaivisa The current economic problems in the U.K. are far worse than anyone initiially thought and a further drop of 25% in real estate values is not only possible but likely. As for the Pound, it could be years before it recovers and in the short run (the next 6 months) it could easily go to $1.25 The Aussie dollar may be one of the currencies that could have an even bleaker future than the Pound, due to the fact that the Aussie economy is so closely tied to commodity exports, and commodities have just entered what will likely be a prolonged bear market. The Euro could fall to the $1.15 -$1.20 area, but it will stabilize much quicker than either the Pound or the Aussie dollar. The baht has held up rather well thus far, so if I were holding baht I wouldn't be in any hurry to change my holdings. Getting back to the condo, if the poster with the condo could sell it for $3.5 million baht that would be great for him, but to then change those baht into Pounds would be a grave mistake JMHO!

[AlexLah]

The UK housing price will drop a 60% from it's peak.

Yes , within 2 years from the peak.

Check ur stat's

[Forkinhades]

The UK housing price will drop a 60% from it's peak.

Interesting forecast. Personally I feel that the quicker it falls the better, so things can start to get growth again. I think it will drop about 40% from the peak in a very quick time, but will maybe stagnate for a couple or 3 years. Which after taking infaltion into acount (although very low still important) in real terms yes I think the UK property market will drop by as much 50%. As a person still working in the UK, I think changing a possible gain into Sterling is good for me. Not everybody, but Sterling has been very solid, and these couple of clowns we have in government now could do some real damage. <joke> Bring back Thacther and put the interest back up to 16%! and make Sterling strong again <joke>. Edited November 16, 2008 by Forkinhades

[MJP]

By next Friday, one GBP (Gordon Brown Peso) will by exactly two of your Thai Baht's.

[Rinrada]

Next door neighbour..but 1... put his house up for sale 4 months ago at £499k and has now dropped it to £429K....

Couple of years ago the sign would still be drying out by the time it went.....but changing times....

Recon £399k might shift it but the way things are over here at the mo..future is a bit grim....wouldnt bet on it.....

Anyway time for a Pint me thinks...

[cloudhopper]

IMO it's quite possible for the THB to hold or improve it's value relative to most other currencies in the longer term. Relative to the population size, there is a lot of water, food and gold here. Countries that are (relatively) the least energy dependent, least indebted, least dependent on non productive paper pushing sectors of their national economy, will be toward the back of the pack in the race to the bottom as this all unfolds. So IMO Thailand might well prove to be one of the better places to be on the planet right now.

[MJP]

The GBP is still falling, in fact it's not worth investing in Sterling at the moment, that's why Gordon Brown has been running around the world with the begging bowl..............

there's something i would like that my british friends explain to me. nobody talks about Tony B. Liar (also known as G.W.'s BOOT cum @ss-LICKER) who was in charge for years of The Greatest Empire on Earth™ and ran the country down in each every respect. but the blame is now on Gordon.

would you please care to elaborate what exactly is/are Mr. Brown's fault and shortcomings? was he the one who claimed that SaddaMn Hussein was poised to eradicate the empire within 45 minutes with his non existing weapons of mass destruction?

please enlighten me

Something I've pondered.

Fact is Bliar had this Orwellian 1984 thing going on from May 4th 1997 (when he got in). People we're beyond sick of the self-promotion, it was remorseless, relentless, every news bulletin would start with "The Prime Minister, Tony Blair has . . . ". Seriously, it was twisted.

The day after he left, he left the public consciousness.

Fact is the man was a crook. He went to scrounge off J.P Morgan of all organisations afterwards, has made a reported £13m since he went. He couldn't continue as PM, not because of various scandals, but because he could no longer afford it. Had huge mortgages. Also saw this global economic disaster coming and dumped it on Brown, who is a pathetic ideological fool.

Most Labour governments leave Britain in a real mess, this one has gone that step further and finished the place off.

[spiderman2]

Most Labour governments leave Britain in a real mess, this one has gone that step further and finished the place off.

This sums the 10+ years of NuLabour up to perfection, a must read -

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment...in-Britain.html

[MJP]

Most Labour governments leave Britain in a real mess, this one has gone that step further and finished the place off.

This sums the 10+ years of NuLabour up to perfection, a must read -

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment...in-Britain.html

Thanks Spidy,

Nicked it for another forum who love this stuff.

Not sure how the UK gets out of this one. 2009 gonna be bad, 2010 looks like depression, 2011 looks worse, 2012 looks like an embarrassment. Heard today that instead of flowers being handed to winning athletes at the 2012 Olympics they are going to give pot plants instead. Seriously.

I left the remediation job at the Olympics Games site in late March. Absolute nightmare.

[thaihome]

IMO it's quite possible for the THB to hold or improve it's value relative to most other currencies in the longer term. Relative to the population size, there is a lot of water, food and gold here. Countries that are (relatively) the least energy dependent, least indebted, least dependent on non productive paper pushing sectors of their national economy, will be toward the back of the pack in the race to the bottom as this all unfolds. So IMO Thailand might well prove to be one of the better places to be on the planet right now.

What if the country fits your description, but something like 80% of GDP is export dependent (and they falll, say by 50%)?

TH

[The Philosopher]

Can the baht sustain its value or is it going to go down the tube, same as '97? If so, is there any good currency to change it into? Or anything to buy with with it? Wife won't agree to trading in e.g. platinum over the net. Likes gold because she can see it, or currency because it's in the bank.

In 97 we bought teak furniture because we could use it and take it back to Oz and sell it. Not planning on going anywhere for a while, though.

Yes!

Buy Great British Pounds and tell all your friends.

Physical gold. Hold sufficient currency for basic day to day living for the next year. Everywhere is screwed and it's not going to even bottom out until 2012-2014 is my best guess. Don't go for ETF 'paper' gold. It's the next big con to be exposed I reckon.

The random babblings of MJP do not constitute financial advice.

The UK has the option to join the Euro Zone when it wishes it is also a Gordon Brown wish, this will happen when the pound and the Euro near parity, the value of the pound is being used as a political tool by the present Uk Government

[Phil Conners]

Back to the topic: I heard a rumor that they are considering a devaluation of the Baht. Is there any substance to this or is it just another rumor?