Thai Property Assets Becoming Unsaleable

[uk2bkk]

Hi,

This is mainly aimed at fellow Brits whose currency is going down the pan although if your currency has had steep falls

it may apply to you. Have you put off buying Land or property in Thailand because its become so expensive?

My wife and I have certainly put off any thoughts about buying in Thailand until the rate is back to 70's to the pound,

that may be a long wait but what is the rush.

In fact we have changed tactic and are now looking to purchase in the UK where property prices are plummeting and

are in fact looking a much better deal than in Thailand. Thai secondhand property has always been difficult to sell even

in buoyant times, now I hear some ex-pats gloat about there recent newfound wealth in their property, up 30% in a year.

As most funds are transfered into Thailand for property purchase, surely serious sellers should quote their sales prices in their

home currencies, or are people still buying? Incidentally, we never really considered buying a farang owned property with it's

inflated premium attached unless it was heavily discounted.

As property prices around the world start to decrease, the Thai property market is going into a bit of a bubble. If ex-pat sellers

could not sell before what makes them think they can sell now? I put it to you that property in Thailand is such a bad deal at

the moment it's unsellable. Flip-side, with those economies now approaching 0% interest rates will people be parking their

savings in Thai property? Will the current price seem a good deal or will we be seeing 35 baht to the GBP? Me, I'm not buying

it and having a Thai family we are reducing the time we spend in Thailand for vacations, seeking out alternative destinations.

Finally having browsed the Thaivisa classifieds for several years, it seems more and more agents are listing and utilising the free

services of Thaivisa. Thoughts welcome.

[Jingthing]

Sounds like are fishing for a desperate seller. They are out there! Others are holding on and waiting for things to hopefully turn around in 5 or 10 years. I think it is unreasonable to expect people to price in anything other than baht, but I am sure any seller will be happy to provide you with a currency converter.

[churchill]

I wouldn't rush to buy in the UK , houses are not selling now , unemployment increasing - wait for another 1-2 years .

I don't think prices will decline as much in Thailand for good quality houses in good locations - but there is probably a lot of housing that cannot be sold because of poor design and location , so for those ( the same for everywhere ) prices will be very low .

[pkrv]

Interesting your wifes thoughts mirror my own

Taken from the jobs forum -

What Are The Effects Of A Strong Baht On Foreign Retirees.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Effects-Stro...25&start=25

Currencies fluctuate! Always have and always will. To live the expat life, depending on your income source, you just have to add that to your equation of uncertainties. You should consider bad case scenarios and consider what actions you may have to take if they occur. Coming from the US where we have had 8 years of the Bush weak dollar policy, there is a lot of talk now about pursuing a stronger and more stable dollar policy to the extent that can be controlled. One can hope.

There are some things you can do to shelter some currency risk. For example I have assets in Thailand and assets in the US (and also in many other currencies). So when currencies move I am hedged, I can't really cry or celebrate.

JT, "many other currencies" = hedged? which currency -besides JP¥- appreciated vs. Thai Baht to provide a hedge for those who have the bulk of their expenses in Thailand pray tell?

naam - I think you are being too literal here. If you bought property here at say in my case (GBP) 75 and were forced to sell at 40/50 thats not bad. I think this is what he is talking about. It is hedging but not as we know it, but we can do this on our own.

Have I got this interpretaion correct Jingthing? because I agree with this.

that's not hedging but a coincidence albeit based on facts. i agree that people bought property with the expectation that it might appreciate pricewise. but i can't think of anybody having bought property expecting an appreciation via exchange rate.

prophets are of course excluded

Thats odd - I do view this as hedging, but on a personal level - I obviously bought in Thailand, and for one critical reason. I did not whish to become vunerable to exactly the situation that now exists (I am UK based). At the time I looked at the exchange rate in 2005 and that was a major contributor to my decision to buy at that time. I have openly said I could juggle things if push came to shove. Either rent out in Thailand to fund living in the UK or vice versa. It just seemed logical to me to have a fallback position/not have all my eggs in one basket/hedge my options.

I have not yet had to test my thoughts in practice but seem to have landed on my feet. I have on paper a 65% increase in value on my condominium and an exchange rate gain from 75 (ish payments ranged from 75 to around 69 I think) let's keep it simple to 50. So another 50% profit. Interesting isn't it.

No I did not predict this NO WAY can I do that - but the logic works (well/well in my case anyway).

If I were Thai I would soon start to think about doing this the otherway around (You would have less hurdles to jump though guys )

Edit - Oh the property in The UK is of course in freefall so I too "can't really cry or celebrate". which is what i picked up on from this poster.

[mikethevigoman]

I think there are a lot of expats that would like to cash up now, unfortunatly there are still no house buyers in thailand it seems, i think if you are an "auction chaser " and have the time and money its a great time to take advantage of the recession in the uk and a bargain can be had, a friend of mine purchased a property that was repossesed next door ,it had previosly 12 months earlier sold for 195000 he got it for 67000,i dont think that will hurt,.turn a negative into a positive id say, ( if you have the funds ) if not hold tight, its going to be a rough ride,.

[midas]

I don't think you will see many bargains involving land and buildings in Thailand because its an entirely different market.

One person who has worked in the property industry here for 15 years said to me Thai people don't have a good understanding

of the " time value of money ". Hence so many will sit on unproductive assets for decades until they get their price.

Because of the impending glut of condominiums, that's where I think there will be bargains if you shop around

and as you correctly said, Thai's are not so enthusiastic about secondhand condominiums and the remaining

expat market looks like diminishing while the financial crisis is in full swing. Based on the latest statistics

regarding the number of condominiums registered so far this year, it could be bad later on.

When you say " recent newfound wealth in their property, up 30% in a year." there wouldn't be any newfound wealth

until they succeed in selling the property and the money is in the bank!

[lannarebirth]

I guess everyones experience varies. I've sold 3 properties in Thailand, none of which were ever listed for sale. I had another inquiry last week for a piece I had, and i told the prospective buyer that it was not for sale as I will be building my own home there. I have several other pieces, but none of them are for sale. None are residences, which I think are probably a little overbuilt in some areas.

One thing I've noticed is, people seem to appreciate great natural beauty, and pieces possessing that are probably never in a slack market.

[pkrv]

I think there are a lot of expats that would like to cash up now, unfortunatly there are still no house buyers in thailand it seems, i think if you are an "auction chaser " and have the time and money its a great time to take advantage of the recession in the uk and a bargain can be had, a friend of mine purchased a property that was repossesed next door ,it had previosly 12 months earlier sold for 195000 he got it for 67000,i dont think that will hurt,.turn a negative into a positive id say, ( if you have the funds ) if not hold tight, its going to be a rough ride,.

Then there is the other thought process - If the four horse men of the apocalypse were to try to cease (a condominium) what I have in Thailand, I would fight, to keep what I have.

Edited November 17, 2008 by pkrv

[Livinginexile]

I guess everyones experience varies. I've sold 3 properties in Thailand, none of which were ever listed for sale. I had another inquiry last week for a piece I had, and i told the prospective buyer that it was not for sale as I will be building my own home there. I have several other pieces, but none of them are for sale. None are residences, which I think are probably a little overbuilt in some areas.

One thing I've noticed is, people seem to appreciate great natural beauty, and pieces possessing that are probably never in a slack market.

Same for me too.

I have property and could sell tomorrow for quite a substantial profit.

One of my tenants offered to buy my condo just last week!

It's all relative. all I see in Bangkok is property prices increasing year by year.

Crisis? what crisis?

[lannarebirth]

I guess everyones experience varies. I've sold 3 properties in Thailand, none of which were ever listed for sale. I had another inquiry last week for a piece I had, and i told the prospective buyer that it was not for sale as I will be building my own home there. I have several other pieces, but none of them are for sale. None are residences, which I think are probably a little overbuilt in some areas.

One thing I've noticed is, people seem to appreciate great natural beauty, and pieces possessing that are probably never in a slack market.

Same for me too.

I have property and could sell tomorrow for quite a substantial profit.

One of my tenants offered to buy my condo just last week!

It's all relative. all I see in Bangkok is property prices increasing year by year.

Crisis? what crisis?

Well, I don't know anything about condos, or houses for that matter. I'm only talking about land, and only my own experiences at that.

I have a few rules I follow which have held me in good stead.

1) Look at A LOT of land. I looked at over 400 pieces before I bought my first piece. Prices are all over the map and you have to create your own valuation system.

2) Unless it's for your own use, never pay more than 50% of what you believe the lands value is. And while every piece I buy, I only buy if I would feel comfortable owning it until I die, I ask myself if I could unload it in a week (for what I paid for it), in an average market, if I had to.

3) Only buy land that has intrinsic natural beauty or looks upon such in a way that could never be obstructed.

4) Only buy land that has a natural water feature, such as spring, creek, river or sea.

Never buy anything in Thailand whereby something MUST HAPPEN for you to benefit.

Works for me, and as i say, I don't care if the price goes up, down or sideways, but if I do sell one, you can be sure the price went up, alot.

edit: I would also note that each of the three pieces I sold are worth more now than when I sold them.

Edited November 17, 2008 by lannarebirth

[bingobongo]

the solution is simple, treat your condo like a bargirl and rent her out

[glyph]

Since you don't have any experience with either real estate ownership, or bargirls, I'm not sure your advice is worth anything.

[midas]

Since you don't have any experience with either real estate ownership, or bargirls, I'm not sure your advice is worth anything.

That is rich coming from you

[pkrv]

the solution is simple, treat your condo like a bargirl and rent her out

You may be surprised to learn that renting out by the hour is explicitly forbidden in my condominium contract. If necessary and this is not the case at the moment, professionally renting out in Thailand to provide an income stream in the UK is now a distinct possibility. Not quite the same thing as you are suggesting.

Out of interest you are US based are you not? The USD is at an all time high and from what I have read unlikely to remain so for long - will you be buying in Thailand? You seem constantly drawn to the country. It would be useful to know your thoughts as I can then take action to do the exact opposite with, I was going to say, with 100% certainty, but actually I was wrong as it turns out it's more like 115% accuracy.

[lannarebirth]

the solution is simple, treat your condo like a bargirl and rent her out

You may be surprised to learn that renting out by the hour is explicitly forbidden in my condominium contract. If necessary and this is not the case at the moment, professionally renting out in Thailand to provide an income stream in the UK is now a distinct possibility. Not quite the same thing as you are suggesting.

Out of interest you are US based are you not? The USD is at an all time high and from what I have read unlikely to remain so for long - will you be buying in Thailand? You seem constantly drawn to the country. It would be useful to know your thoughts as I can then take action to do the exact opposite with, I was going to say, with 100% certainty, but actually I was wrong as it turns out it's more like 115% accuracy.

$USD at ATH? Err, no, not even close. It's very very low in fact:

It's almost up to the middle of it's recent range aganst the THB:

[pkrv]

the solution is simple, treat your condo like a bargirl and rent her out

You may be surprised to learn that renting out by the hour is explicitly forbidden in my condominium contract. If necessary and this is not the case at the moment, professionally renting out in Thailand to provide an income stream in the UK is now a distinct possibility. Not quite the same thing as you are suggesting.

Out of interest you are US based are you not? The USD is at an all time high and from what I have read unlikely to remain so for long - will you be buying in Thailand? You seem constantly drawn to the country. It would be useful to know your thoughts as I can then take action to do the exact opposite with, I was going to say, with 100% certainty, but actually I was wrong as it turns out it's more like 115% accuracy.

$USD at ATH? Err, no, not even close. It's very very low in fact:

It's almost up to the middle of it's recent range aganst the THB:

I must apologise - I am actually quite a vague individual, you appear to be quite precise - I perhaps should have said the USD is currently at a/an high/artificial high. I suspect it will again go down vs the THB but that is just a thought. I hope that is that a better discription of my thoughts. What would be of interest is if this is the last high the USD will see vs THB, I don't have a good feeling about this.

edit I note a few moments later I said at a peak on the 'global correction thread' courtesy of bingo - I am not precise and never have been or indeed can be - this stuff is difficult for me.

Edited November 20, 2008 by pkrv

[lannarebirth]

the solution is simple, treat your condo like a bargirl and rent her out

You may be surprised to learn that renting out by the hour is explicitly forbidden in my condominium contract. If necessary and this is not the case at the moment, professionally renting out in Thailand to provide an income stream in the UK is now a distinct possibility. Not quite the same thing as you are suggesting.

Out of interest you are US based are you not? The USD is at an all time high and from what I have read unlikely to remain so for long - will you be buying in Thailand? You seem constantly drawn to the country. It would be useful to know your thoughts as I can then take action to do the exact opposite with, I was going to say, with 100% certainty, but actually I was wrong as it turns out it's more like 115% accuracy.

$USD at ATH? Err, no, not even close. It's very very low in fact:

It's almost up to the middle of it's recent range aganst the THB:

I must apologise - I am actually quite a vague individual, you appear to be quite precise - I perhaps should have said the USD is currently at a/an high/artificial high. I suspect it will again go down vs the THB but that is just a thought. I hope that is that a better discription of my thoughts. What would be of interest is if this is the last high the USD will see vs THB, I don't have a good feeling about this.

edit I note a few moments later I said at a peak on the 'global correction thread' courtesy of bingo - I am not precise and never have been or indeed can be - this stuff is difficult for me.

There's some resistance in the high 37's low 38's of the USD:THB trade. I supect that's where it's headed. If, when and for how long, or whether that is a top, I do not know. I don't worry too much about $USD:THB fluctuations anymore on a networth basis, but it's always nice if it's above 35 (mid-range IMO) on an income basis.

FYI, if you're talking about real money, there's no such thing as an "artificial" high, or low for that matter.

[pkrv]

the solution is simple, treat your condo like a bargirl and rent her out

You may be surprised to learn that renting out by the hour is explicitly forbidden in my condominium contract. If necessary and this is not the case at the moment, professionally renting out in Thailand to provide an income stream in the UK is now a distinct possibility. Not quite the same thing as you are suggesting.

Out of interest you are US based are you not? The USD is at an all time high and from what I have read unlikely to remain so for long - will you be buying in Thailand? You seem constantly drawn to the country. It would be useful to know your thoughts as I can then take action to do the exact opposite with, I was going to say, with 100% certainty, but actually I was wrong as it turns out it's more like 115% accuracy.

$USD at ATH? Err, no, not even close. It's very very low in fact:

It's almost up to the middle of it's recent range aganst the THB:

I must apologise - I am actually quite a vague individual, you appear to be quite precise - I perhaps should have said the USD is currently at a/an high/artificial high. I suspect it will again go down vs the THB but that is just a thought. I hope that is that a better discription of my thoughts. What would be of interest is if this is the last high the USD will see vs THB, I don't have a good feeling about this.

edit I note a few moments later I said at a peak on the 'global correction thread' courtesy of bingo - I am not precise and never have been or indeed can be - this stuff is difficult for me.

There's some resistance in the high 37's low 38's of the USD:THB trade. I supect that's where it's headed. If, when and for how long, or whether that is a top, I do not know. I don't worry too much about $USD:THB fluctuations anymore on a networth basis, but it's always nice if it's above 35 (mid-range IMO) on an income basis.

FYI, if you're talking about real money, there's no such thing as an "artificial" high, or low for that matter.

Ok you too can choose to be vauge - you mean its manipulated - correct from what I have seen. Warbergs were amongst the worst offenders last time. Long since gone.

[lannarebirth]

the solution is simple, treat your condo like a bargirl and rent her out

You may be surprised to learn that renting out by the hour is explicitly forbidden in my condominium contract. If necessary and this is not the case at the moment, professionally renting out in Thailand to provide an income stream in the UK is now a distinct possibility. Not quite the same thing as you are suggesting.

Out of interest you are US based are you not? The USD is at an all time high and from what I have read unlikely to remain so for long - will you be buying in Thailand? You seem constantly drawn to the country. It would be useful to know your thoughts as I can then take action to do the exact opposite with, I was going to say, with 100% certainty, but actually I was wrong as it turns out it's more like 115% accuracy.

$USD at ATH? Err, no, not even close. It's very very low in fact:

It's almost up to the middle of it's recent range aganst the THB:

I must apologise - I am actually quite a vague individual, you appear to be quite precise - I perhaps should have said the USD is currently at a/an high/artificial high. I suspect it will again go down vs the THB but that is just a thought. I hope that is that a better discription of my thoughts. What would be of interest is if this is the last high the USD will see vs THB, I don't have a good feeling about this.

edit I note a few moments later I said at a peak on the 'global correction thread' courtesy of bingo - I am not precise and never have been or indeed can be - this stuff is difficult for me.

There's some resistance in the high 37's low 38's of the USD:THB trade. I supect that's where it's headed. If, when and for how long, or whether that is a top, I do not know. I don't worry too much about $USD:THB fluctuations anymore on a networth basis, but it's always nice if it's above 35 (mid-range IMO) on an income basis.

FYI, if you're talking about real money, there's no such thing as an "artificial" high, or low for that matter.

Ok you too can choose to be vauge - you mean its manipulated - correct from what I have seen. Warbergs were amongst the worst offenders last time. Long since gone.

Oh yeah, it was manipulated, all currencies are to a certain extent. In the $USD's case it was manipulated DOWN. That's what this unwinding is all about.

[DocJD]

Right now, the idea of holding onto tangible assets is more appealing, particularly cash. However, the property markets seem a little over-priced in Thailand. I feel people, at least in the US, will find more incentive in purchasing property in the US for investment purposes. Less and less money will flow into Thailand over the next year from international sources due to global recessions and the country will feel the crunch. People in Thailand with an inadequate working capital and 2nd and 3rd properties will need to liquidize those properties to support themselves. Property pices in Thailand will take a dip. By the way, I'm not a fundamental analyst by trade, but this is just how I'm imagining things happening.

Edited November 20, 2008 by DocJD

[midas]

Right now, the idea of holding onto tangible assets is more appealing, particularly cash. However, the property markets seem a little over-priced in Thailand. I feel people, at least in the US, will find more incentive in purchasing property in the US for investment purposes. Less and less money will flow into Thailand over the next year from international sources due to global recessions and the country will feel the crunch. People in Thailand with an inadequate working capital and 2nd and 3rd properties will need to liquidize those properties to support themselves. Property pices in Thailand will take a dip. By the way, I'm not a fundamental analyst by trade, but this is just how I'm imagining things happening.

Do you require a blender to do that ?

[glyph]

"Right now, the idea of holding onto tangible assets is more appealing, particularly cash."

Real estate is yet another type of "tangible asset".

"The property markets seem a little over-priced in Thailand."

By your extensive knowledge of Thai real estate, what percentage is the property overpriced?

"I feel people, at least in the US, will find more incentive in purchasing property in the US for investment purposes."

People are more inclined to invest in their home countries - that's always been true.

"Less and less money will flow into Thailand over the next year from international sources due to global recessions and the country will feel the crunch."

Based on your specific knowledge of...

"People in Thailand with an inadequate working capital and 2nd and 3rd properties will need to liquidize those properties to support themselves."

People will inadequate working capital generally don't have 3 homes.

"Property pices in Thailand will take a dip."

Based on....

"By the way, I'm not a fundamental analyst by trade, but this is just how I'm imagining things happening."

Ah, you don't have any specific knowledge. Thanks for guessing.

[DocJD]

...liquidize those properties...

Do you require a blender to do that ?

I only wish it were that simple.

Glyph, you seem a bit testy. I admit that I could very well be wrong in my analysis. Feel free to correct me if you know something I don't.

"Right now, the idea of holding onto tangible assets is more appealing, particularly cash."

Real estate is yet another type of "tangible asset".

Yes, but particularly cash. This is causing stock markets to tumble, tightening the spend rate, killing jobs, forcing debts and foreclosures.

"The property markets seem a little over-priced in Thailand."

By your extensive knowledge of Thai real estate, what percentage is the property overpriced?

The percentage of property that is going unsold--doesn't take extensive knowledge of the Thai market to tell you that.

"I feel people, at least in the US, will find more incentive in purchasing property in the US for investment purposes."

People are more inclined to invest in their home countries - that's always been true.

Maybe, but now this has been compounded by the incentives created by tough economic conditions.

"Less and less money will flow into Thailand over the next year from international sources due to global recessions and the country will feel the crunch."

Based on your specific knowledge of…

International trade theory.

"People in Thailand with an inadequate working capital and 2nd and 3rd properties will need to liquidize those properties to support themselves."

People will inadequate working capital generally don't have 3 homes.

They might if their business takes a punishing as a result of the global recession. They might if they are property investors who overleveraged themselves at the wrong time. They might in a recession.

"Property prices in Thailand will take a dip."

Based on....

Supply vs. Demand.

"By the way, I'm not a fundamental analyst by trade, but this is just how I'm imagining things happening."

Ah, you don't have any specific knowledge. Thanks for guessing.

Fair enough, but I didn't say I didn't have specific knowledge. I just said "I'm not a fundamental analyst by trade."

If you disagree, let me know what you think will happen.

[pkrv]

Welcome to the forum - DocDJ - I note you are coping quite well with the rough and tumble ];-)

Cash too has problems; it is sort of devaluing before your eyes. Interest rates are falling and inflation is still high. We may go into deflation (in the UK and that is the only perspective I can talk about) but I think all efforts will be made to try to put that off. Which would mean a direct impact on cash savings.

You should be aware that the Thai market is mostly cash based, its a bit like going back in a time warp. Whilst there appear to be a few astute Thai individuals who extend themselves and buy off the plan condominiums under the Farang quota, your not talking about many.

Thais got burnt last time around in 1997 and the city still has its skeletons. But they do not forget. If I were to reinvest today I would not buy off the plan it's too risky. However I would still buy in the secondary condominium market (Farang quota). Very oddly this is the market that actually appears to have improved during the 1997 crash, and property is still, in relative terms, cheap.

However if anyone intends to come to Thailand on a shoe string, they have missed the boat. Whilst I have been flippant and said 115% increase in value of Thai assets (in GBP terms) about 50% of that comes from foreign exchange movements. Think of that the other way around. This is dangerous stuff.

IMO if you plan to move to a new country YOU MUST have tangible assets (I am cautious and simply talk about freehold condominiums under the Farang 49% quota) in that country otherwise you are really, really exposed.

Basically from what I have seen if you need to exit the rat race on a shoe string budget you need a Vietnamese husband/wife. And by the way if I were Thai I would now consider the UK property market. Thai Baht high GBP low – property prices falling look at the staggering returns to be made in just two years 115% ish (though this does not apply to me, this is a home for me). Though there is risk.

Edited November 21, 2008 by pkrv

[Tanaka]

lannarebirth

I do not quite understand this. You say you only buy land. How can you buy land being a farang? Unless you do it via an active minor share company. In which case it is a very different matter and cannot be compared with the private person's investment.

Edited November 23, 2008 by Tanaka

[lannarebirth]

lannarebirth

I do not quite understand this. You say you only buy land. How can you buy land being a farang? Unless you do it via an active minor share company. In which case it is a very different matter and cannot be compared with the private person's investment.

I buy it through my wife.

[london]

It seems that time after time on TV, there are posts saying that Thai property, business, products, currency or the country are on the verge of collapse or that no-one will want them in the future.

As a person with a biased view, holding a number of properties here in Thailand...and holding equities in the SET, I must say that I do not see things as being as bad as others may.

A general comment such as "Thai Property assets becoming unsaleable" is in itself illogical. Anything is saleable.....at a price.

Sure, there is no doubt in my mind that there are property assets in Thailand (and for that matter in ALL countries) that depending on their LOCATION are going to be more difficult to sell than perhaps they were 6 months ago, but that is vastly different from saying that something is "unsaleable".

Frankly, there are condominium projects in Bangkok or Pattaya that stagger me that they were built (or are being built). They are in locations with absolutely no upside. Yet, there are buyers for them...at a price.

As has been noted on many posts in the past, Thai's tend not to sell any property at a loss. They are happy to hold on for better times.

There are 2 major issues in Thailand that do concern me at present and that, in my opinion, will affect this country unless action is taken VERY quickly:

1) the demonstrations and closure of the main airports and

2) the high value of the Thai baht.

Neither will make any Thai asset unsaleable...but they will make investing in Thailand AT PRESENT the cause for some concern.

[midas]

It seems that time after time on TV, there are posts saying that Thai property, business, products, currency or the country are on the verge of collapse or that no-one will want them in the future.

As a person with a biased view, holding a number of properties here in Thailand...and holding equities in the SET, I must say that I do not see things as being as bad as others may.

A general comment such as "Thai Property assets becoming unsaleable" is in itself illogical. Anything is saleable.....at a price.

Sure, there is no doubt in my mind that there are property assets in Thailand (and for that matter in ALL countries) that depending on their LOCATION are going to be more difficult to sell than perhaps they were 6 months ago, but that is vastly different from saying that something is "unsaleable".

Frankly, there are condominium projects in Bangkok or Pattaya that stagger me that they were built (or are being built). They are in locations with absolutely no upside. Yet, there are buyers for them...at a price.

As has been noted on many posts in the past, Thai's tend not to sell any property at a loss. They are happy to hold on for better times.

There are 2 major issues in Thailand that do concern me at present and that, in my opinion, will affect this country unless action is taken VERY quickly:

1) the demonstrations and closure of the main airports and

2) the high value of the Thai baht.

Neither will make any Thai asset unsaleable...but they will make investing in Thailand AT PRESENT the cause for some concern.

You are master of understatement! You haven't seen anything yet

we shall revise your insightful statement in about another six months

[MeetJohnDoe]

...there are posts saying [Thai assets] are on the verge of collapse or that no-one will want them in the future.

As a person ...holding a number of properties here in Thailand...and holding equities in the SET, I must say that I do not see things as being as bad as others may.

I guess that 50% drop in the SET in the past year was all in our imagination, and doesn't qualify as a "crash" in price

[MeetJohnDoe]

Concerning the future direction of condos in Thailand/Bangkok (and around the world for that matter) and this goes particularly for new construction (but will have knock-on effects on secondary sales too) is that just about all the inputs used to develop/build one have gone down in price, in some cases spectacularly so. Therefore, the price to build a new condo today is much less that it was to build the same condo during the past couple years. Therefore, the developer can sell them for less...it seems to me this will put allot of pressure on prices for all the recently (and soon to be completed) condos that were build with higher input costs over the past few years.

Specifically, I am talking about the prices of energy, steel, cement, glass, and fittings (in these recessionary times, the developer could negotiate big discounts from manufacturers of sanitary ware, light fixtures, furniture, electrical equipment, whatever). Wage costs have also moderated and maybe even declined somewhat. The price of raw land too has surely come down somewhat or certainly not increased. The only thing that has gone up is the cost of capital but it's likely the fall in the other costs greatly outweighs this factor.

People who bought into the market over the past couple years bought into one with high input/construction costs prevalent at the time. I would not be surprised to see in the future similar like-for-like condos at cheaper prices due to the factors laid out above.