Many posters have expressed surprise that the Government was unable to order the army to regain control of the airport. Some even went so far as to blame P.M. Somchai for his alleged weakness and lack of will. Perhaps they should consider the equestrian metaphor recently used by one of Thailand’s most influential elder statesmen.

General Prem: (…) Do you know horse racing? In horse racing they have the stable and the owner of the stable owns the horse. The jockey comes and rides the horse during the race, but the jockey does not own the horse. It’s very easy [to comprehend].

(Far Eastern Economic Review, 2008)

http://www.feer.com/free-interviews/2006/s...m-tinsulanonda1

Yes but your'e forgetting this is Thailand and the Jockey does own it! Whinnnnnnnnnnnnyyyyyyyy

My impression is the army does not want to get involved. Not big fans of the government.

But they are big, big fans of the PAD!

And if you know who the PAD are big fans of that will answer the OP's question.

Military acts independently of the govt - this is part of the problem.

But they are big, big fans of the PAD!

Or PAD is a proxy for some elements of the military? I have a feeling though that some of the lower rank officers that are blocked from rising in the ranks because of national origin, nepotism or not being "in" with the "in" ground, might just say enough is enough. Mr. Chavez of Venezuala was someone like that. IMHO the Military leadership needs to consider the damage it is doing by its perceived support of PAD and the resultant sabotage of the government.

Argh. People keep forgetting one very import thing, the thing that is probably the main reason why the army (and even the police) have not acted.

Someone does not want to see any violence. If it were not for that one person, I'll bet the authorities would have moved in a long time ago.

I don't understand why the police cannot just go in with tear gas, water canon and riot shields. It would soon disperse that crowd. No need for violence (ie bashing people with batons etc...).

But they are big, big fans of the PAD!

Might even say that they own the team.

But they are big, big fans of the PAD!

And if you know who the PAD are big fans of that will answer the OP's question.

There is a lot more to it than that. There is also a huge divide within the army, those for Thaksin and those against, if the army steps in, who knows where it will end.

It is a civil matter, and should be POLICED, unfortunately this is not happening! That is the bit I cannot understand, why can a group of Pro dictatorial squatters hold a country to ransom?

How many are there at the airport? Why not get a rough count, assign 2 police for each squatter and simply drag them out!

I [my personal view] believe it's a coup brewing.

Argh. People keep forgetting one very import thing, the thing that is probably the main reason why the army (and even the police) have not acted.

Someone does not want to see any violence. If it were not for that one person, I'll bet the authorities would have moved in a long time ago.

Exactly, and that someone is the Head of State. Many people still don't realise that the armed forces are legally responsible to the King (and not, as many people assume, the Prime Minister). Prem's stable/jockey metaphor is basically correct. HM held a couple of audiences with the PM a few months ago where he asked the government to use legal means and not violence to resolve the situation, and the armed forces have complied with that.

Edited November 27, 200817 yr by Crushdepth

I [my personal view] believe it's a coup brewing.

Hope that's the worst that is going to happen, my opinion, I reckon Thailand is heading for civil war.

I don't understand why the police cannot just go in with tear gas, water canon and riot shields. It would soon disperse that crowd. No need for violence (ie bashing people with batons etc...).

PAD guards owns UZIs and guns (see tuesday video); If the Police were shot at and return fire, all the blame of injuries or death would be on the police and none on the PAD mobs.

NOTE: Oct incident, major news for the civilian that was killed by the "tear gas" explosion but almost no news for the policemen that was shot at. And no news on PAD bringing the shooter(s) to justice for using firearms.

As of right now the law is - if you are wearing yellow, it is OKAY to shoot at other people especially in red.

Explorer

I [my personal view] believe it's a coup brewing.

Could be, but if so they missed the "golden" opportunity.

PM out of the country. Crowds protesting in the streets. Major airports closed.

The military could have just invited all the MPs to meet in a "safe" location, announced a coup and prevented the PM from returning like they did his brother-in-law.

I think the importance of this PM is significantly less than the other one that was thrown out, so it wouldn't really matter much if they let him back into the country or not.

Again, I think it boils down to one person, unless things get to a point where the military has no choice but to step in.

As bad as things look right now, the reality is they could be much, much worse. By a long shot. Trust me on that.

As bad as things look right now, the reality is they could be much, much worse. By a long shot. Trust me on that.

Very true. Those advocating a forceful crackdown on the protestors would do well the history of such things in Thailand:

* Bloody May (1992).

* Student massacre (1976).

Nobody wants to see this again, and its a large part of why the armed forces don't want (and have been asked not to) get involved. So spare the general a thought when you complain he isn't cracking heads.

Just going back to Prem's metaphor and reflecting on it, I suppose the problem that some of us Westerners have is that the stables we know are not quite like that. The stable is usually owned by a trainer, who is trusted by the owners of the horses to do the best for them. The owners are a very diverse group - you could even say they were the people.

Just going back to Prem's metaphor and reflecting on it, I suppose the problem that some of us Westerners have is that the stables we know are not quite like that. The stable is usually owned by a trainer, who is trusted by the owners of the horses to do the best for them.

Actually, plenty of western countries are Constitutional Monarchies with a similar set up, eg. UK, Australia, Canada and most other Commonwealth countries have either Queen Elizabeth as head of state or a 'Governor General' who is nominally her representative and performs the same function. They are normally head of the armed forces and also have final approval in signing draft legislation into law.

The reason many people from such countries aren't aware of the power their head of state actually wields is because they so rarely have to use it. Basically they are just there as a last-ditch safety mechanism that can eject the government if it starts going to hel_l.

I [my personal view] believe it's a coup brewing.

Hope that's the worst that is going to happen, my opinion, I reckon Thailand is heading for civil war.

Bankrupcy and an internal Army feud. All thaksins men are still there behind the scenes and didn't Anupong look nervous yesterday!

Note the response today of the Indian Army against their insurgent terrorists. No running to the Bank of India for a meeting with Business men leaders there. Get the guns off the terrorists and catch em dead or alive.

Should have happend here once the guns came out.

Back to the Metaphore. The people own, paid for, feed, stable, race and clean up the shit after the horse! They are actually to a greater extent "the horse" as they are drafted in often against their will.

Edited November 27, 200817 yr by grandpops

Actually, plenty of western countries are Constitutional Monarchies with a similar set up, e

There is a huge constitutional law and political science literature that puts a more nuanced interpretation on the position in those countries. But for a good lay person's take on the difference follow the link in the OP and read Prem's full interview.

How bad will it be once Thaksin gets back here?

I just wished that this could be solved peacefully and not like this.

PAD is not interested in throwing PPP out, they want a coup, they want this to happen... They have told that removing the PM will not make them leave the airport...

How bad will it be once Thaksin gets back here?

You ever been to Myanmar? It used to be the most prosperous country in SE Asia.

If this had happened in the United States or Australia or any other Western Country, SWAT or Tactical Response Groups would take care of it in about 5 mins flat. The taking hostage of Suvarnabhumi and other Airports is bordering on Terrorism and Air Piracy. The Police and Army should enforce the law and remove these people with the non lethal forces at their disposal. And allow the elected Government to govern until the next election. That is the time to change an unpopular Government it works quite well just ask John Howard.

I have a Thai wife and come to Thailand often it is a great Country don't destroy it!.

Perth West Australia

If this had happened in the United States or Australia or any other Western Country, SWAT or Tactical Response Groups would take care of it in about 5 mins flat. The taking hostage of Suvarnabhumi and other Airports is bordering on Terrorism and Air Piracy. The Police and Army should enforce the law and remove these people with the non lethal forces at their disposal....

And how exactly do you propose they do that?

Hint: have a word with your wife.

If this had happened in the United States or Australia or any other Western Country, SWAT or Tactical Response Groups would take care of it in about 5 mins flat. The taking hostage of Suvarnabhumi and other Airports is bordering on Terrorism and Air Piracy. The Police and Army should enforce the law and remove these people with the non lethal forces at their disposal. And allow the elected Government to govern until the next election. That is the time to change an unpopular Government it works quite well just ask John Howard.

I have a Thai wife and come to Thailand often it is a great Country don't destroy it!.

Perth West Australia

Know way it's going to happen, this is the end game, and PAD are not goin to walk away without a fight, and judging by the way the police and army have operated in previous incidents they are incapable of dealing with something like this without non lethal force.

With all respect mr.toad..(maybe canetoad would be more appropriate!)

Just how could a swat team,army or anyone disperse a crowd of thousands,or even hundreds with the use of non-violent means? and in five minutes as you say.I might add Australia and little johnny Howard has never seen anything like this...he would shit himself..his solution would be to spend millions of dollars on around the clock bombardment advertising (aka workchoices) trying to convince the people that it would be a good thing to just bend over and take it...while hospitals and essential services suffer.

Or maybe little johnny would round all the trouble makers up and put them in detention centres...as that worked such a trea last time!!!

With all respect mr.toad..(maybe canetoad would be more appropriate!)

Just how could a swat team,army or anyone disperse a crowd of thousands,or even hundreds with the use of non-violent means? and in five minutes as you say.I might add Australia and little johnny Howard has never seen anything like this...he would shit himself..his solution would be to spend millions of dollars on around the clock bombardment advertising (aka workchoices) trying to convince the people that it would be a good thing to just bend over and take it...while hospitals and essential services suffer.

Or maybe little johnny would round all the trouble makers up and put them in detention centres...as that worked such a trea last time!!!

I don't understand why the police cannot just go in with tear gas, water canon and riot shields. It would soon disperse that crowd. No need for violence (ie bashing people with batons etc...).

In other words give the protestors what they want? a melee.

You know what they say about wrestling with a pig? You get dirty & the pig likes it.

There is a divide but the PAD and PAD interests definitely own most of the army vote. The PPP/TRT have a small share, but only what the bought in their short time in power. The Democrat PAD backers have bought their majority control over the past 40+ years.