What Would Civil War Mean?

[girlx]

Curious, as I was just reading about references to Nagasaki on another thread which made my blood run cold... but if the PAD were stupid enough to press this until it escalated into civil war, what would that mean? Would all transportation be shut down? Food and water supplies blocked? Power and communications systems shut down? Would foreigners be trapped here or would they all be gathered up and shipped out? How would law and order be kept?

Not to start a panic or anything, but might as well look at the worst case scenario.

Edited November 27, 2008 by girlx

[jdinasia]

I would assume that

1) civil war on any really large scale will not happen

and

2) some people would cut and run, some of us would just sit tight, go out for coffee, walk the dogs, have a beer.

[Ulysses G.]

I don't really think that anything too major will happen, but if it does, Thais can be quite rational in the long run, but when they get angry they often snap.

I'm afraid that if this does escalate and enough Thais fly off the handle after all these years of repressing ther feelings it could turn into one ugly mess.

Edited November 27, 2008 by Ulysses G.

[jubby]

Don't worry about it. I can't really see it getting that bad here. If it did happen, I'm sure we could all sneak out of the country when they down tools for Lunch and a few Beers, or even a round of Golf.

[Murgatroyd]

Wars are fought by armies... when the civilian population polorises into two or more disputive factions, what you get is anarchy... a total breakdown of law and order, and a series of terrorist actions. Neither side has a defined or visible enermy. In that situation, Farangs would be at considerable risk. Some who were part of local communities, by virtue of marriage to a thai spouse may be alright, if they have intigrated with, and are respected by the community in which they live, and are not conspicuously wealthy.

Farangs who pursue an exclusivly ex-pat life style... and own homes that earmark them as rich will be at considerable risk, as the polatics of envy come into play. There will be no one available to protect them from raiders, bandits and those who decide to even the score between rich and poor... if they try to protect their belongings, they will die... they may be killed anyway, merely because they present an available target for the wave of resentment and bitterness that will arise when the bloodletting begins. Stranded tourists, or defiant ex-pats will merely become a brief source of wealth and consumer goodies... then any of them who cannot obtain some sort of sanctuary will become casualties.

If anarchy arises, the conspicuously different are always amoungst the first to suffer. Remember year zero ? That happened in the country next door, and not that long ago in the greater scheme of things...

[girlx]

yeah... that is exactly what i am worried about.

[OxfordWill]

happy to bet against civil war. maybe civil skirmish.

[Tagaa]

Very interesting question.

Here in our village, I am told we have not only the nicest house in the village but also in the amphur. We don't, but I am farang, not Thai, so yes we do. We have a ha cip- ha cip relationship with the locals. Some see us for what I think we are: good neighbors, always willing to help anyone in need, employing villagers on a regular basis, buying kites for the kids that CAN'T AFFORD THEM, a regularly scheduled class to help the kids with their English (no charge) & always donating to whatever cause they are collecting money for at the time (1500 bt today for some good students to go on some field trip). The wife has many friends in the village & they visit & eat here frequently. They and their families are invited here any time we have a party or just a few beers for some occasion. We even had a birthday party here for the young son of a friend of the wife's, just because we had more space. Funny enough, we paid for the food, beer & the cake. No matter.

Some things we don't do are give Lao Kow to the village drunk and/or the old men when they come around, or give money to the villagers when they stop by and just ask for money. The villagers that we don't just give whiskey/money to, make up stories about us & do their best to get the villagers that don't know us to hate us. Very sad, but TIT.

Some love us, some loathe us/me. Even in the States, I never was everybody's friend.

If a nasty civil war popped up, I believe we would be set upon, but I also think we would be defended, as happens every day. Just depends who has the weapon or possibly the biggest weapon or weapons. We don't own a firearm, although I have considered getting "some", but I really don't want to off the poor somchai that is stupid enough to break in my house. So, if we are "set upon" I/we are basically helpless. The dog will eventually be of assistance, but she is only 11 weeks old now, so it will be awhile before she earns her keep.

I doubt a "serious" civil war would break out. But if it did, it would be a good excuse to rape, pillage & plunder, which is all someone with a mob mentality (the avgerage Thai) needs to go from decent citizen to vigilante freedom fighter. It's a fine line when a nice color TV is at stake.

And so it goes...

Edited November 27, 2008 by Tagaa

[sassienie]

Many times here on Thaivisa I have mentioned about the rude and unsociable ex-pats who prefer to live a singular existence here in Thailand.

But in times like these, we may need all the friends we can get, safety in numbers.

If things do turn nasty and no matter how independent and far separated we may feel from the rest of our peers here, it may conclude with the scenario of, them and us.

[syd barrett]

happy to bet against civil war. maybe civil skirmish.

It seems almost laughable to consider civil war and widespread anarchy in Thailand, yet these things do happen and happen very quickly. For example if there was a mass killing of protesters either accidentally or by force that could set the ball rolling.

The only sensible thing I ever did in my life is NOT to purchase a Thai property. This is a third-world country, wonderful when things are going smoothly, great for a holiday, an exciting place to live. But when you have to go, you have to go.

Let's hope there is a peaceful solution to this problem in Thailand.

[Underdog]

Wars are fought by armies... when the civilian population polorises into two or more disputive factions, what you get is anarchy... a total breakdown of law and order, and a series of terrorist actions. Neither side has a defined or visible enermy. In that situation, Farangs would be at considerable risk. Some who were part of local communities, by virtue of marriage to a thai spouse may be alright, if they have intigrated with, and are respected by the community in which they live, and are not conspicuously wealthy.

Farangs who pursue an exclusivly ex-pat life style... and own homes that earmark them as rich will be at considerable risk, as the polatics of envy come into play. There will be no one available to protect them from raiders, bandits and those who decide to even the score between rich and poor... if they try to protect their belongings, they will die... they may be killed anyway, merely because they present an available target for the wave of resentment and bitterness that will arise when the bloodletting begins. Stranded tourists, or defiant ex-pats will merely become a brief source of wealth and consumer goodies... then any of them who cannot obtain some sort of sanctuary will become casualties.

If anarchy arises, the conspicuously different are always amoungst the first to suffer. Remember year zero ? That happened in the country next door, and not that long ago in the greater scheme of things...

And as I said months ago, this will be the new Uganda, and the foreigners will be the Indian and Asian businessmen that got shafted there too!

[gerrythepoet]

Wars are fought by armies... when the civilian population polorises into two or more disputive factions, what you get is anarchy... a total breakdown of law and order, and a series of terrorist actions. Neither side has a defined or visible enermy. In that situation, Farangs would be at considerable risk. Some who were part of local communities, by virtue of marriage to a thai spouse may be alright, if they have intigrated with, and are respected by the community in which they live, and are not conspicuously wealthy.

Farangs who pursue an exclusivly ex-pat life style... and own homes that earmark them as rich will be at considerable risk, as the polatics of envy come into play. There will be no one available to protect them from raiders, bandits and those who decide to even the score between rich and poor... if they try to protect their belongings, they will die... they may be killed anyway, merely because they present an available target for the wave of resentment and bitterness that will arise when the bloodletting begins. Stranded tourists, or defiant ex-pats will merely become a brief source of wealth and consumer goodies... then any of them who cannot obtain some sort of sanctuary will become casualties.

If anarchy arises, the conspicuously different are always amoungst the first to suffer. Remember year zero ? That happened in the country next door, and not that long ago in the greater scheme of things...

And as I said months ago, this will be the new Uganda, and the foreigners will be the Indian and Asian businessmen that got shafted there too!

The madness is in Bangkok, those that could suffer from any bloodshed surely would be those falangs that live in villages where those that die come from. From the news I have noted there seems to be no parades of yellows or reds.

Civil War is always a possibility but I wonder how many of us will just not travel from our front door. The Falangs are aliens and will be never considered Thai so hopefully this chip in the brain for these monkeys will save us.

[adjan jb]

What Would Civil War Mean?

A polite armed conflict.

[Murgatroyd]

I would strongly advise all visitors and ex-pats to ensure that you are registered with your embassy at this uncertain time, and to bare in mind that if civil unrest gets out of control, the internet and the mobile phone network may well close down for the duration. (Especially if groups of rioters are using the networks to coordinate their campaign of violence). This will mean that ATM's will not accept your card, and if the banks close, another likely ramification of widespread civil unrest, you won't be able to get cash to manouver with. Make a plan, even if you never need to use it. Far better to be prepared for the worst and afterwards heave a sigh of relief because it didn't happen than get cought with your pants down. Women should be especially careful of becoming isolated in unfamiliar surroundings... you may be at risk.

Edited November 27, 2008 by Murgatroyd

[Underdog]

What Would Civil War Mean?

A polite armed conflict.

That answer is probably why you give yourself the nick "Adjarn"!

[PeaceBlondie]

Guns n' Roses asked, "What's so civil about war, anyway?"

[dingdongrb]

Civil War in LOS =

1) Less traffic on the roads

2) No more double pricing structure

3) No more interruptions in power and water

4) USD stronger against the baht

5) TV becomes a 'free for all' with no forum rules

[girlx]

ha- idealist are we?

[Geekfreaklover]

My money would be on the roundheads (redshirts) winning.

But seriously, lets not get carried away.

[Geekfreaklover]

My money would be on the roundheads (redshirts) winning.

But seriously, lets not get carried away.

Or should that be squareheads?

[soundman]

5) TV becomes a 'free for all' with no forum rules

Sure about that one?

[patklang]

The farangs will be stronger together if we get vigilante groups roaming tha sois.

[GuestHouse]

I doubt very much that the present problems will lead to Civil war.

A more likely outcome is a military coup followed by an appointed 'Government of Unity' and the 'Unity' is likely to be nationalism.

It is, I think, nationalism that is the biggest single threat to foreigners in Thailand, and it is nationalism which is arguably the most potent political force in Thailand.

---

As an observation, there are a number of posters here posting their theory that should Thai people start targetting foreingers then the target would be foreigners who live a life that the 'commentor' singles out as being the most likely 'hit' for unruly mobs.

This is a self deception, but if it makes you feel more secure then do please continue.

[girlx]

why is it self deception?

[GuestHouse]

Because it is based on the belief that foreigners are regarded differently on the basis of where or how they live.

This is a false assumption. You are a foreigner, regardless of what life style you follow.

I think too it is also an expression of individual predjudices - a 'Hypothetical' envious Thai mob robbing rich Farangs, I think no more than this same 'hypothetical' mob would rob any Farang.

The envy seems to me to be on the part of the not hypothetical comentator.

[Geekfreaklover]

I don't quite understand quite why foreigners would be heavily targeted in the advent of this extremely unlikely scenerio anyhow. Steal a car or a TV to buy weapons perhaps??

Foreigners are nothing to do with what caused the problem, and we, for the main don't own land or have major stakes in any tangible assets, apart from buisnesses which have to be run. We would very swiftly and quietly have to get the hel_l out of Dodge.

Lets not compare this with conflicts in former colonial countries.

[girlx]

Because it is based on the belief that foreigners are regarded differently on the basis of where or how they live.

This is a false assumption. You are a foreigner, regardless of what life style you follow.

yes, i agree with that

[Dakhar]

Because it is based on the belief that foreigners are regarded differently on the basis of where or how they live.

This is a false assumption. You are a foreigner, regardless of what life style you follow.

yes, i agree with that

amen

[sassienie]

I would strongly advise all visitors and ex-pats to ensure that you are registered with your embassy at this uncertain time, and to bare in mind that if civil unrest gets out of control, the internet and the mobile phone network may well close down for the duration. (Especially if groups of rioters are using the networks to coordinate their campaign of violence). This will mean that ATM's will not accept your card, and if the banks close, another likely ramification of widespread civil unrest, you won't be able to get cash to manouver with. Make a plan, even if you never need to use it. Far better to be prepared for the worst and afterwards heave a sigh of relief because it didn't happen than get cought with your pants down. Women should be especially careful of becoming isolated in unfamiliar surroundings... you may be at risk.

I registered myself and my family with the British embassy in Bangkok, 5 months ago.

Since this crisis, not a word from them, nor any advice or a hello there, are you still in Thailand.

I dont have any faith in them or whether they will be of any use, if the worst did happen.

[phaethon]

I registered myself and my family with the British embassy in Bangkok, 5 months ago.

Since this crisis, not a word from them, nor any advice or a hello there, are you still in Thailand.

I dont have any faith in them or whether they will be of any use, if the worst did happen.

They have better things (as they see them) to do than to hold expats hands. They will use the contact information if there is serious trouble - i.e if they are advising/arranging mass evacuation of UK citizens.

Edited November 27, 2008 by phaethon