I keep hearing and reading that tourism is a large part of the Thai economy. This is a big misconception.

Tourism only amounts to about 6% of the national GDP.

How close were you?

yes, its only a few percent directly to the travel industry, but the rest of the hospitality industry, transport, aviation (including thai airways), a small scale export/smuggling out like silver, articrafts, precious stones or a small scale investments, like buying a property/condo might equal the 6% directly from tourists.

tourists to thailand do buy as well goods exported from thailand, mainly foods, so they indirectly do stimulate thai economy

Thailand is a country roughly the size of France, with roughly the same population. Tourism is important, and I was surprised that the direct benefit is only 6% (I heard this on the news last night), there would of course be some indirect benefits as well. But there is an awfu lot of economic activity in the manufacturing sector, agriculture, etc.

The CIA World Factbook (I know, I know) has a lot of information - how valid it is, I know not.

Pretty certain that it is more than 6%, if you take into account all of the other indirect spending trickling down into the economy. They are going to of course down play the impact on Tourism to the country even more so now. Wouldn't look good to admit this little airport escapade is going to hit the economy hard.

I believe the correct answer is 11% although I cannot immediately find a source to confirm this, but I will.

Yes the 'official' figure has always been around 5-6% but certain factor are not taken into account when gdp is calculated. If you just look at what people are saying right now with tourism down it's quite obvious that the real % is much, much higher than 6%.

To state the bloody obvious, current protests at the airport not only stifle tourism, but any kind of business in general.

(Not saying that all posters above don't realize this, but wanted to spell it out)

I mentioned it in another thread, I thought it was around 8% (but wasn't sure it is 8% of the GDP or GNP).

That's why I was shaking my head at all the people who seem to think this is the (economic) end for Thailand, just because Suvarnabhumi was closed, as though all of Thailand's economy revolved around one airport, some air-cargo, and some stranded tourists.

Granted, 8% is a huge chunk of money in it's own right, and it were to totally disappear today, never to be seen again, it would cause some hardships for the country.

However, some peace and stability in the country, and an upswing in the global economy, and in a couple years time, that 8% won't even be noticed. Think about it. If the country (and the rest of the world) settled down, and were to enjoy a low to moderate 3% per year growth rate, in less than 3 years they would be right back.

OK, without the tourist income (of any kind) it may take a little longer. Hmm, calculator on, numbers to crunch.......

(Just as examples)

100 billion - Gross National Product (GNP)

8 billion - tourism (8%) totally erased off the books.

92 billion - New GNP (say - 1 Jan 09)

2.75 billion (3% of new GNP)

94.75 total (end of year 1, 31 Dec 09)

2.84 billion (3% of 09 GNP)

97.59 billion (end of year 2, 31 Dec 10)

2.93 billion (3% of '10 GNP)

100.5 billion (end of year 3, 31 Dec 11)

Now there are a lot of factors that could change the numbers (up or down), but, based on only a 3% growth rate and NO tourism revenue AT ALL, it would only take about 3 years for the economy to make up that lost revenue.

I highly doubt the tourism industry would never come back. In fact, within a few months of this crisis being resolved we'll probably be seeing threads whining about long lines at immigration again.

And if the global economy picks up (which would no doubt mean a rise in tourism as well) ? Higher annual growth rate and more tourism $$ ?

These are just quick example figures, but for anyone who thinks this current crisis and the shutting down of Swampy is going to cripple Thailand's economy, you may want to think again.

Of course, if this all ends up into a major civil war, North against South, Red against Yellow, Light-skinned vs Dark-skinned, then all bets are off.

I mentioned it in another thread, I thought it was around 8% (but wasn't sure it is 8% of the GDP or GNP).

That's why I was shaking my head at all the people who seem to think this is the (economic) end for Thailand, just because Suvarnabhumi was closed, as though all of Thailand's economy revolved around one airport, some air-cargo, and some stranded tourists.

Granted, 8% is a huge chunk of money in it's own right, and it were to totally disappear today, never to be seen again, it would cause some hardships for the country.

However, some peace and stability in the country, and an upswing in the global economy, and in a couple years time, that 8% won't even be noticed. Think about it. If the country (and the rest of the world) settled down, and were to enjoy a low to moderate 3% per year growth rate, in less than 3 years they would be right back.

OK, without the tourist income (of any kind) it may take a little longer. Hmm, calculator on, numbers to crunch.......

(Just as examples)

100 billion - Gross National Product (GNP)

8 billion - tourism (8%) totally erased off the books.

92 billion - New GNP (say - 1 Jan 09)

2.75 billion (3% of new GNP)

94.75 total (end of year 1, 31 Dec 09)

2.84 billion (3% of 09 GNP)

97.59 billion (end of year 2, 31 Dec 10)

2.93 billion (3% of '10 GNP)

100.5 billion (end of year 3, 31 Dec 11)

Now there are a lot of factors that could change the numbers (up or down), but, based on only a 3% growth rate and NO tourism revenue AT ALL, it would only take about 3 years for the economy to make up that lost revenue.

I highly doubt the tourism industry would never come back. In fact, within a few months of this crisis being resolved we'll probably be seeing threads whining about long lines at immigration again.

And if the global economy picks up (which would no doubt mean a rise in tourism as well) ? Higher annual growth rate and more tourism $ ?

These are just quick example figures, but for anyone who thinks this current crisis and the shutting down of Swampy is going to cripple Thailand's economy, you may want to think again.

Of course, if this all ends up into a major civil war, North against South, Red against Yellow, Light-skinned vs Dark-skinned, then all bets are off.

Even a 1% drop in GDP is a big deal these days. Tourism is well down- catastrophically.

And the indirect benefits dry up too.

Thailand's other big problem is exports- well down.

The impact of the credit crunch has yet to have hit Thailand.

It's a country in big trouble

That 6% is only accumulative of what goes through LEGALLY but think about the millions that are not accounted for from street vendors, bar girls, massage parlors, taxis, passage vans, etc ... I would guess tourism GDP up to 20%.

Think about it. If the country (and the rest of the world) settled down, and were to enjoy a low to moderate 3% per year growth rate, in less than 3 years they would be right back.

I absolutely agree. I was very happy with the small growth in my assets, just above inflation after my expenses had been paid. Unfortunately there are some very greedy, callous and arrogant people in this world and 3% is not enough.

They want more and more.

For example the banks, who basically could have had an easy job making 3% between lending and borrowing rates got greedy and wanted more and more, rewarding employees with massive bonuses far out of proportion to the "vapour" wealth they thought was being made. And now they have created the monster which has, in my case, destroyed many years of prudent behaviour.

After six decades on this planet although I am still optimistic that there are many "nice" humans around, I believe that the majority, given the position and opportunity, are prepared to screw anybody they are able to screw, provided the penalties are acceptable if they get caught, in order to further their own position in the hierarchy. And we all have our own perception of the acceptable penalty.

The only defense is to recognise this and take precautions. Sometimes even that is not enough.

Sorry for the deviation from the topic.

6% is a huge amount.

This means the Thai tourist industry brings in 60000 baht for every 1 million baht of the national GDP. Evaluate that amount when dealing in trillions.

Wish I were getting 6% interest on my savings here.

If this political crisis breaks the tourist industry, than that is going to be a massive loss to the economy of Thailand, creating mass unemployment within these industries plus the knock on effects contributing to a great down turn of revenue.

6% is the official figure but you are deluded if you think the knock on effect is just this figure, it is easy for any business to divert to any other asian country, tourism figures are nothing, this has been happening for for a long while, why bother wondering if your imports are going to be affected by muppets when you can get a guarantee from other nations, yes humans have a short memory but business does not

6% is the official figure but you are deluded if you think the knock on effect is just this figure, it is easy for any business to divert to any other asian country, tourism figures are nothing, this has been happening for for a long while, why bother wondering if your imports are going to be affected by muppets when you can get a guarantee from other nations, yes humans have a short memory but business does not

You`re dead right.

All companies have to do is take their computers close the doors behind their leased premises and run their companies from another country.

This happened to UK industries years ago.

But tourism is people industry pertaining to one particular country that cannot be run from anywhere else.

These days it`s a very competitive world. Trip over, no ones going to pick you up.

Way more than the quoted 6%. That 6% might be the easily recordable and taxable income but that is merely a fraction of the figures which do not get taxed and are never recorded. Perhaps 20% would be nearer the mark but the knock on effect of tourist spending could be even higher than that.

The sight of stranded tourists and stranded business men in airports causes far more harm than in the tourist industry.

For decades Thailand benefited from billions of dollars of direct foreign investment which translated to factories and jobs for many thousands outside of the tourist industry. That investment has nearly dried-up entirely this year due to the continuing political uncertainty, while the direct foreign investment in it's neighbor Vietnam has sky-rocketed. Those are good paying, long term employment opportunities lost forever to Thailand.

The damage done will be significant and long term.

~WISteve

On the Box.......

The Tourism Authority of Thailand together with MasterCard has launched “72 Hours Amazing Thailand” – a dedicated campaign presenting a host of exciting activities and special privileges exclusively for MasterCard cardholders visiting Thailand.....

Can say that again.....

On the Box.......

The Tourism Authority of Thailand together with MasterCard has launched “72 Hours Amazing Thailand” – a dedicated campaign presenting a host of exciting activities and special privileges exclusively for MasterCard cardholders visiting Thailand.....

Can say that again.....

Presumably this is aimed at those stranded in Swampy, who must be getting a little bored now.

How about

- Front seat thrills "Death Ride" on a long distance bus

- Join in a police shoot out on the streets in Kanchanburi

- Swampy to Kao San and back in 20 minutes on a motorcycle taxi

- Eat a bacon sandwich whilst riding with a teacher in Yala

- Join the kids swimming in the Bangkok Klongs with close-action longtails

- Two nights in the Bangkok Hilton

- Enjoy a speed boat trip with 120 others from Samui to Pangnan, boat licensed to carry 12.

Not bad for a start eh?

I would think tourism contributes anywhere between 6-10% to the economy. Industries such cars, food, electronics also in my opinion make up a big segment of the economy. All of which I am sure will be having a tough time at the moment.

It's really quite funny how people just immediately discard the respected figures and pull their own "realistic" figures out of thin air. "20%" etc.. What makes you guys so qualified to be able to analyze the entire economy like that??? Thailand has a large population and a lot of exports, figures like 20% are completely ridiculous.

The real amount is as stated, 6-8%.

It's really quite funny how people just immediately discard the respected figures and pull their own "realistic" figures out of thin air. "20%" etc.. What makes you guys so qualified to be able to analyze the entire economy like that??? Thailand has a large population and a lot of exports, figures like 20% are completely ridiculous.

The real amount is as stated, 6-8%.

It's even funnier when the spin doctors ignore damage to the non-tourist sectors created by a frozen air transport system.

• Agricultural products are not shipped by ocean freight.
  
• Wonder how many tourists DHL, FEDEX and UPS bring in? Flowers anyone? Save them for next year?
  
• Computer chips, components .. "There is a 40' container out back, guys .. we'll call Slowboat Lines as soon as it's full."
  
• "Fred, about that new investment in SE Asia ... Malaysia and Vietnam are looking pretty good."
  

It's really quite funny how people just immediately discard the respected figures and pull their own "realistic" figures out of thin air. "20%" etc.. What makes you guys so qualified to be able to analyze the entire economy like that??? Thailand has a large population and a lot of exports, figures like 20% are completely ridiculous.

The real amount is as stated, 6-8%.

Ok even if we take 6%, then even if the disruption only results in just 2% drop in GDP, then that's a very serious issue.

But as other posters have pointed out, invisibles probably far outweigh visibles. Also what about the effect on the economy as a whole. Thailand was in trouble b4 the blockade, now it's up to it's neck. No way back in the short term.

It's really quite funny how people just immediately discard the respected figures and pull their own "realistic" figures out of thin air. "20%" etc.. What makes you guys so qualified to be able to analyze the entire economy like that??? Thailand has a large population and a lot of exports, figures like 20% are completely ridiculous.

The real amount is as stated, 6-8%.

Domestic consumption is weak as people don't have so much money/ available credit.

Exports are suffering awfully due to world slump and insanely high exchange rate, eg, 53bt for 1 pound (73bt 2 years ago).

It's really quite funny how people just immediately discard the respected figures and pull their own "realistic" figures out of thin air. "20%" etc.. What makes you guys so qualified to be able to analyze the entire economy like that??? Thailand has a large population and a lot of exports, figures like 20% are completely ridiculous.

The real amount is as stated, 6-8%.

Domestic consumption is weak as people don't have so much money/ available credit.

Exports are suffering awfully due to world slump and insanely high exchange rate, eg, 53bt for 1 pound (73bt 2 years ago).

IN FACT, from breaking news Bangkok Post website- pretty much as I said:

BoT's Local Economy Division senior director Ummara Sripayak said the expected sharp decline in the number foreign arrivals is tantamount to a loss of Bt140 billion or around 1.5 per cent of Thailand's gross domestic product (GDP).

Unrecorded transaction take place in all sectors, so it doesn't make any difference saying the 6% is just the visible stuff, as it either balances out or is completely incalculable.

It's true that exports and domestic demand are low because of the world crisis, but that also reduces tourism, so its horses for courses.

Some of you people who hang out in Pattaya, Suhkumwit, etc are vastly overestimating your, and other tourists, importance to the economy.

XXX tourism accounts for more than 10% of the GDP.

The commercial sex trade in Thailand remains one of the largest and most pervasive in the world. The United Nations International Labour Organization (UN-ILO) estimates that the illicit sex sector in Thailand comprises a whopping 14% of GDP.

http://209.85.129.132/search?q=cache:l-kVR...=clnk&cd=16

XXX tourism accounts for more than 10% of the GDP.

That guy has a serious axe to grind and his statistics are highly inaccurate. Regardless, even if 14% was true, which it is not, the vast majority of it is from locals, not from tourists.

Google for this, lots of other sources confirm its 10% +

Google for this, lots of other sources confirm its 10% +

Yeah, a dozen articles all linking to the same inaccurate sources from a decade ago.