Thailand: The Next Asian Basket Case?

[bingobongo]

i say yes

"Thailand's reputation as a stable and economically prosperous country which welcomes tourists, businessmen and students has been severely damaged."

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4d12ee1c-c1a4-11...?nclick_check=1

[bendix]

What a startlingly original thinker you are bingobongo. Every post offers a new and unexpected insight into your views.

Your mates must eagerly look forward to beers out with you.

[Carib]

Yes, so why bother posting? Just make sure you have nothing to do at all with Thailand, and your life will be wonderful, byeee.

[Soutpeel]

i say yes

"Thailand's reputation as a stable and economically prosperous country which welcomes tourists, businessmen and students has been severely damaged."

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4d12ee1c-c1a4-11...?nclick_check=1

I would say... It is already.... and has been for a long while....so nothing new in this

[bingobongo]

come on carib and bendix, your defense smells of desperation and not competence

i do in fact have a vested interest in LOS, as I have shorted the SET and am short the baht, unlike you, i have no emotional connection to LOS only monetary, and i will continue to make money as LOS continues to destroy itself

i get the distinct impression neither of you would do well in the first world (financially or personally), hence you defend the 3rd world?

[bendix]

With respect, bingobongo, you couldnt be more wrong if you tried. I have no emotional connection here, except a wife.

In fact, I've recently been offered a global management role with another law firm location in London, so I'm heading back over there in six weeks to work for four more years before retiring back in Thailand. Im not sure if that qualifies for not doing well in either the first or third world.

Your posts would gather more credibility if they didnt always beat the same drum.

[JimmyTheMook]

The tsunami effects of the recent fiasco have not yet started.

You will always find varied opinions especially among the many apologists on this forum.

A few Thai people I spoke with who have either been educated or lived overseas said they are shocked as to what took place and they realize the country is screwed for a least 5 years.

I think yesterdays picture on the front of the Bkk Post pretty much summed the situation up.

[midas]

I had a friend who left Bangkok four years ago two years after I had arrived

and he went back to his own country to live after working here for over 16 years.

He had held senior positions with an international company here.

As he was leaving he referred to this country even then as a " basket case economy "and it's obvious

that many things that occurred directly after the 1997 Asian economic crisis

really changed his perspective of this country and the people for the worst.

[bendix]

Im in no doubt things are a lot worse here today then when I arrived 4 and a half years ago. And the events of the last couple of weeks will - i believe - have serious negative consequences on the economy for many years to come.

But that's not why I'm leaving. I have a relatively perfect existence here . . but on balance I've decided that a short-term sacrifice now (working back in the west for a few years) will reap huge dividends for me when I come back and dont need to work.

Cos - let's face it - working in Thai corporates of Thai offices of MNCs is dam_n frustrating for those of us who do it.

[midas]

Im in no doubt things are a lot worse here today then when I arrived 4 and a half years ago. And the events of the last couple of weeks will - i believe - have serious negative consequences on the economy for many years to come.

But that's not why I'm leaving. I have a relatively perfect existence here . . but on balance I've decided that a short-term sacrifice now (working back in the west for a few years) will reap huge dividends for me when I come back and dont need to work.

Cos - let's face it - working in Thai corporates of Thai offices of MNCs is dam_n frustrating for those of us who do it.

That is for sure - i couldn't hack it for long

[Carib]

come on carib and bendix, your defense smells of desperation and not competence

i do in fact have a vested interest in LOS, as I have shorted the SET and am short the baht, unlike you, i have no emotional connection to LOS only monetary, and i will continue to make money as LOS continues to destroy itself

i get the distinct impression neither of you would do well in the first world (financially or personally), hence you defend the 3rd world?

With dumb remarks like this, to me it is clear **no flaming please*** sbk

Just because you have vested interests in Thailand that seems to make you the expert.

First world/third world blabbering is just to make things look interesting, nothing more, since it doesn't exist.

And you can look for as long as you live, but you will not see the day that a country like Thailand is destroyed as you see it.

The western countries are doing very well these days, now aren`t they? Nuff said.

[Bizz]

i say yes

"Thailand's reputation as a stable and economically prosperous country which welcomes tourists, businessmen and students has been severely damaged."

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4d12ee1c-c1a4-11...?nclick_check=1

come on carib and bendix, your defense smells of desperation and not competence

i do in fact have a vested interest in LOS, as I have shorted the SET and am short the baht, unlike you, i have no emotional connection to LOS only monetary, and i will continue to make money as LOS continues to destroy itself

i get the distinct impression neither of you would do well in the first world (financially or personally), hence you defend the 3rd world?

Doom and gloom

[stumonster]

but on balance I've decided that a short-term sacrifice now (working back in the west for a few years) will reap huge dividends for me when I come back and dont need to work.

I take it you would be in favour then of the GBPeso being replaced with the Euro.

[geriatrickid]

Cos - let's face it - working in Thai corporates of Thai offices of MNCs is dam_n frustrating for those of us who do it.

Try running clinical research projects.

I think the biggest shock some of the fresh faced white collar types get is when they discover its a 6 day work week.

2nd biggest shock is dealing with a bureaucracy that features the Indian love of forms, and Italian civil service efficiency, all carried out by people that have speech impediments and impaired hearing.

[thailandjunkie]

As a long term resident of Thailand it pains me to see how the Country is starting to unravel politically and socially. The present situation is far worse than any i have witnessed...including the 97 meltdown. Back then the problem was economic mismanagement...nasty to experience but all Thai's were working to the same beat. This time the various protagonists are working to very different beats. And worse of all the Thai's famous, and very practical, use of compromise has seemingly been replaced by doggedness.

Tourists will return in time. The economy will pick up slowly. However, the long term damage to Thailand's reputation will take a long long time to be repaired.

Happy Birthday to HM King. Get well soon.

www.thailandjunkie.blogspot.com

[Soutpeel]

Im in no doubt things are a lot worse here today then when I arrived 4 and a half years ago. And the events of the last couple of weeks will - i believe - have serious negative consequences on the economy for many years to come.

But that's not why I'm leaving. I have a relatively perfect existence here . . but on balance I've decided that a short-term sacrifice now (working back in the west for a few years) will reap huge dividends for me when I come back and dont need to work.

Cos - let's face it - working in Thai corporates of Thai offices of MNCs is dam_n frustrating for those of us who do it.

That is for sure - i couldn't hack it for long

Here..Here....tried it for a little while and requested to be put back out on site, same money but less aggravation, even today can only handle small doses of the corporate office...after a week in there...I am climbing the walls

[PeaceBlondie]

The article in Financial Times was okay, but not earth-shattering. It avoids mentioning the unmentionable.

It does appear that whilst Thailand may not be amongst the Third World (an obsolete term since 1990), it is an undeveloping country that reminds me of the song by the Canadian group, the Guess Who:

She's come undone

She didn't know what she was headed for

And when I found what she was headed for

It was too late

She's come undone

She found a mountain that was far too high

And when she found out she couldn't fly

It was too late

It's too late

She's gone too far

She's lost the sun

She's come undone

She wanted truth but all she got was lies

Came the time to realize

And it was too late

But more specifically to Thailand, I just received this email from a Thai who has been teaching social science for decades: "I think Elite group and middle class try to take control of the country, not listen to majority from poor people. They refuse representatives from election. Pad is only a tool of these groups and was supported by them. I'm SO glad that Thailand wil resume a more normal sittuation. I dislike PAD that destroy country. PAD said that whenever PPP will return again they will do mob soon. Do you think tourists of Farang will return to Thailand in the Future?"

[easybullet3]

can anyone tell me why the thai baht has been pretty much unaffected by the past political turmoil? (especially that the airport was blockaded for a week) the baht barely dropped!!! (i'm comparing it to the pound and the dollar).

i heard somewhere that thailand has MASSIVE gold reserves or surplus cash. (but can it run dry)?

I also have heard that thai banks havent been lending out heaps of money ike the western banks, (so thai banks arent finding themselves in debt)

i am just suprised that after a year of political uncertainty and especially the past airport siege AND world-wide economic depression, that the thai baht has pretty much kept its value!!!

can anyone explain this?

and also any predictions for the upcoming future of the baht?

basically, is thailand just delaying its economy collapse becasue of its reserves? or is it truly lucky enough to be unaffected?

[MeetJohnDoe]

i heard somewhere that thailand has MASSIVE gold reserves or surplus cash.

That Thai monk years back who said he had a vision that Yamashita's gold was buried deep in some cave turned out to be wrong. So no hidden gold reserves there. However, there must be quite allot of it in the shops of Yarowat and the home-safes of all the rich Chinese-Thais. And don't forget that big golden buddha at Wat Traimit...it could always be hocked if necessary.

I also have heard that thai banks havent been lending out heaps of money ike the western banks, (so thai banks arent finding themselves in debt)

That is true. The Thai banking system did not get involved in the subprime lending fiasco nor purchase such securities from their own account. They are in surprisingly robust shape.

i am just suprised that after a year of political uncertainty and especially the past airport siege AND world-wide economic depression, that the thai baht has pretty much kept its value!!!

The 15-20 percent depreciation against the US$ is nothing to sneeze at and a most welcome development.

basically, is thailand just delaying its economy collapse becasue of its reserves? or is it truly lucky enough to be unaffected?

Last I read, hard currency reserves were around US$ 160 billion or so. With slowing exports and tourist arrivals, that will begin to fall. Also, all the unrest will slow FDI so demand for bahts as will the interest rate cuts by the BoT. It is a fair bet the baht falls further to maybe the 38-40 to US$ range.

Edited December 5, 2008 by MeetJohnDoe

[thailandjunkie]

The US is in recession. The UK is in recession. The Euro zone is in recession. Basically everywhere is in recession. Thailand, for all it's numerous faults is still growing marginally and will probably NOT slip into recession. $100 billion of FX reserves, banking system with very low loan/deposit ratios therefore not going bust.

It's more a case of everywhere else being worse than Thailand...that's why the Baht is holding up relatively well. When the appetite for US Treasuries (so called safe havens) dries up (2-3 months time i would guess) then the USD will start to fall apart again.

There are no bright spots worldwide. Batten down the hatches and keep most of your money in the currency/country where you live.

www.thailandjunkie.blogspot.com

[raylo]

'MeetJohnDoe'

Last I read, hard currency reserves were around US$ 160 billion or so. With slowing exports and tourist arrivals, that will begin to fall. Also, all the unrest will slow FDI so demand for bahts as will the interest rate cuts by the BoT. It is a fair bet the baht falls further to maybe the 38-40 to US$ range.[/color]

Thats a rise not a fall unless my simple grasp of economics is different to everyone elses. And while I am not a Septic, anyone whose earnings are based on the US$ would wlecome a return to that range. So lets get ready for the fall.