Thaksin Condemns "coup In Disguise"

[coalminer]

Are you confused, or tired, or even afraid to know? Don't worry. You are not alone. We are in this together and we'll go through it together. And after a very sad week, the next few days may turn out to be fun for a change. Key developments will be updated and analysed as soon as they occur, so please check this space regularly.

Dec 3, 9 pm: The ruling politicians who survived the Constitution Court's axe are still pondering simple options: Take advantage of the Suvarnabhumi infamy that put their enemies in bad lights, or go down a catastrophic path of their own by naming Chalerm Yoobamrung as new prime minister.

At this hour, they remain undecided. Some have suggested that maybe the House dissolution is the best solution after all. Chalerm's possible nomination has struck fears into both allies and opponents alike, with the influential Newin Chidchob faction reportedly balking at it like a kid in front of a dentist chair. Moreover, the People's Alliance for Democracy members may miss Government House already.

The next candidate, Mingkwan Sangsuwan, is a far less controversial figure. Better still, he is backed by another influential man close to Thaksin Shinawatra, Yongyuth Tiyapairat. But since Mingkwan doesn't possess enough clout among ruling politicians, it may need to take something as commanding as a message from overseas to get him nominated.

Can House Speaker Chai Chidchob be in contention? Well, his sweet, endearing character cannot hide the glaring fact that he is Newin's father. Again, Chai's nomination can get the PAD's marching song blaring at all city corners.

What about Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva? You just can't stop dreaming, can you? Wishful thinkers envision all coalition partners defecting from the dissolved People Power Party to his side, but did you see Banharn Silapa-archa's tearful, contorted face on Tuesday? If Banharn agreed to back Abhisit after that demonstration of unbearable pain, grief and anger in the wake of his party's dissolution, why doesn't he go for a better option of entering monkhood and take a shot at nirvana?

Yet there are people who insisted that the Chat Thai Party did not earn the nickname "Eel" for nothing. They believe the enigmatic Culture Club song, Karma Chameleon, was written specifically for this Thai political party. These Chat Thai-can-do-anything faithfuls have pointed at a tantalizing statement by the party's only surviving senior member, Sanan Kachornprasart, who said The Eel was still keeping its options open. "We will listen to what the people want," Sanan said, ominiously invoking the doomed party's much-invoked motto.

There have also been talks of Newin leading a defection (again) to back Abhisit. Too far-fetched, of course. But again, that a Newin-backed Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva is an outrageous political scenario doesn't mean politicians on both sides haven't seriously discussed the possibility.

All in all, if Chalerm rising to the premiership will be considered a travesty, Prime Minister Abhisit backed by remnants of Chat Thai and/or the Newin faction will be a black comedy.

One crucial development to watch is who will be the leader of the recently-registered Puea Thai Party, which has become the new home for many PPP MPs. The party is scheduled to elect its leader and 29-member executive board on Sunday, which could give us strong hints as to who will be nominated the next prime minister when Parliament convenes an urgent session next Monday.

About 80 of 218 MPs from the disbanded ruling party have already completed the process to switch to the Puea Thai banner. Deputy House Speaker Apiwan Wiriyachai, seen as a contender for premiership, is now officially a Puea Thai member. He remained humble on Wednesday, saying Industry Minister Mingkwan was a more suitable candidate for the position of prime minister.

Well, this should be it for Wednesday. Am I missing anyone? Oh yes, political speculation cannot complete without a "dark horse". In this case, it's Transport Minister Santi Prompat. I know, to many of you it's like "Santi who?" Don't be too hard on yourself; it's the third or fourth generation of "nominees" we are talking about here.

Dec 4, 11 am: The government camp still doesn't seem to be in a hurry, with news, or rumours, of lobbying not as intense as initially expected. A key development has been a Newin faction member saying that his group will join Puea Thai. "We don't want to be seen as a factor in the appointment of new prime minister," said Boonjong Wongtrairat. "We just want to play an advisory role." That can mean anything.

House Speaker Chai has warned that a rush to decision (on nominating the prime minister) could refuel political tension that had just decreased a little bit. Veera Musigapong, one of three hosts of the pro-government "Today's Truth" TV programme, has insisted that there is no way government politicians would betray their voters by switching camp to the Democrats. Talks about Newin backing Abhisit have also died down.

Another PM candidate has emerged. It has been reported that coalition partners, the Newin group and MPs of the dissolved PPP are looking together at the possibility of installing Ruamjaithai Chat Pattana leader Gen Chetta Thanajaro. He is less controversial than Chalerm, seems a lot more distant from Thaksin Shinawatra and his military backgrounds give him a bigger clout than Mingkwan. His nomination won't send the PAD back to the streets.

But, and it's a BIG BUT, what will Thaksin say?

Dec 4, 2 pm: It's getting a bit ridiculous now but I should have seen this coming. Snoh Thienthong, yes, you heard it right, has emerged as another candidate. With most big names falling out of the picture because of party dissolutions, this is not such a big shock, though. All remotely familiar names are being explored and more fun may be in store.

Anyway, if you put a gun to my head and ask me to choose between Chalerm and Snoh, my choice is simple. Pull the damned trigger.

Dec 4, 3 pm: Is Newin dragging his feet to raise his stock prices? There have been contradicting reports on exactly how many members of his faction have joined Puea Thai. We believe that about half of the 40-strong faction have registered with the new party.

Some sources said Newin was being careful because whereas the Constitution allows MPs from dissolved parties to find a new home, it is not that clear if they are entitled to joining a brand-new party which has never contested an election and been represented in Parliament.

Meanwhile, Chuan Leekpai's name has finally emerged, albeit just in theory. With Abhisit too controversial because of his associations with the PAD, Chuan looks a sound alternative who could lure coalition partners and some of the Newin faction to the Democrat side. To me, this theory is simply too good to be true.

Dec 4, 4 pm: The Newin faction, or about 30 members of the faction, is reportedly set to announce its decision to join the Poomjai Thai Party, set up as a spare part of the now-dissolved Matchima Thipataya Party.

Meanwhile, the expected trouble has finally materialised. A group of 40 senators has asked the Senate speaker to seek rulings from the Constitution Court on the status of party-list MPs of the People Power Party and status of the caretaker Cabinet.

Constitution writers didn't foresee this problem, apparently. But serious questions are being asked. Can the party list MPs move to a new party, since they became MPs in the first place not on their own but through a proportional representation system? In other words, since voters voted for their dissolved parties, not for them, can they defy the voters' will by joining another party that may not be the preferred choice of some voters? To go to the extreme, should the party list MPs disappear along with the dissolved parties?

The Senate group also wants the court to rule whether Deputy Prime Minister Chaovarat Chanweerakul could become caretaker prime minister since he is not an MP. Also, the status of the Cabinet has been brought into question, as several ministers are PPP party-list MPs.

At this moment, a House dissolution appears a strong possibility.

Dec 4, 5pm: HM the King was represented by the Crown Prince and HRH Princess Maha Chakri Sirindhorn at the much-anticipated ceremony to thank high-level well-wishers on the eve of his birthday. The royal children told the audience, who had been apparently unaware of the changed agenda, that the king was a bit unwell with fever and sore throat. The Crown Prince and the princess conveyed his gratefulness for the well-wishers and his best wishes for all of them.

Thai people did not expect the monarch's absence either. I can't remember if the King had ever missed giving his birthday speech before. Even if he had, it must be really, really rare. Our newsroom fell silent after the brief statements by the Crown Prince and the princess which lasted less then 10 minutes altogether.

Dec 4, 8.30 pm: We may have to be here for much longer than expected. A royal decree to reconvene the House on Monday has been cancelled, amid doubts about its legality since it was initiated by the Cabinet under premiership of Somchai Wongsawat. And the Cabinet has decided that when to convene the extraordinary House forum to name the new prime minister will be up to MPs themselves, not the government. In other words, the government is saying "It's parliamentary affair now."

So, with the King unwell the political side is unlikely to put forward another request for an extraordinary House session for him to sign in the next few days.

Sorry, but it seems the names of Chalerm, Newin, Snoh and the likes will keep haunting us for the next 10 days, at least. Think of it as a breath of fresh air after months of Sondhi Limthongkul and Chamlong Srimuang.

Dec 4, 9.30 pm: The Newin group's newly-released press statement has confirmed its rebellious stand. Basically, the group said it wants to reserve its right not to vote for any controversial figure whose nomination could rekindle political confrontation.

Is this burning a hole in someone's pocket? We shall see, especially if the faction ends up saying either Chalerm or Snoh can bring peace and harmony to Thailand.

Dec 5, 10 am: The Matichon website has reported that there were rumours Thaksin Shinawatra was getting worried and had made some phone calls to Bangkok. There are strong reasons why he should be anxious. The Newin camp, it has been confirmed, is sitting on the fence and refusing to join Puea Thai. Its press statement was clear-cut that the faction would support only a non-controversial PM candidate, which Puea Thai will find it hard, if not impossible, to find from within.

And although the coalition allies met Thursday night and confirmed they would stick together, such commitment was vague at best when choosing the next PM is taken into account. "There won't be a core change," said former PM secretary Chusak Sirinil, meaning the allies won't switch side to the Democrats. "As for selecting the new prime minister, the coalition partners have conveyed their concerns to Puea Thai, asking the party to make a careful selection because there remain many booby-traps in the road ahead and there can be another big problem if the next prime minister is not chosen carefully."

Thaksin reportedly made his phone calls Wednesday evening, following reports that the allies were searching for a non-controversial prime ministerial nominee outside Puea Thai. Matichon quoted senior government insiders as saying that he was desperate to have the allies back a Puea Thai candidate.

Negotiations _ obviously on who gets what if a Puea Thai member is to be nominated _ are to begin shortly. The allies are having an upper-hand (take away the House dissolution card of the Puea Thai camp which doesn't like the option itself) and they must be rubbing their hands enthusiastically.

A total of 155 MPs have joined Puea Thai and 12 others are finalising their documents. The party expect at least 30 more to join in the next two days.

Dec 5, 5 pm: Many newspapers may scream "Deadlock" on their front pages tomorrow. Don't get overly excited. No Thai government has ever been formed without that word gracing the headlines once or twice.

Puea Thai today has threatened House dissolution as coalition partners, Snoh in particular, are getting noisier about the new prime minister having to be acceptable to the public. Yep, he of all the people.

The Newin camp has also reiterated its stand against any controversial nominee, and reports about the faction's secret talks with the Democrats have come back again.

Dec 5, 8 pm: Forgive me for all the "rumours". You will see this word with increasing frequency in this live update. There are two main reasons for it: The politicians are spreading all kind of stories that could benefit their bargaining and journalists like me need to protect ourselves. If the "rumours" turn out to be right, credit to us. If not, you know who to blame.

Will Thaksin's ex-wife Pojaman be arriving in Thailand at 10 pm? Nobody can confirm that, even the sources in the defunct PPP who leaked the story were not 100 per cent sure. We should know soon, however, so stay tuned to our website.

Another "good one" is the Thaksin-Newin break-up. The faction has been reported today to be trying to draw more MPs to its side. The group is boasting 37 MPs who are ready to go "independent" when the House of Representatives vote to elect the new prime minister, but claiming that as many as 13 others will join it. The rumours have it that Thaksin, whose leg Newin tearfully clung to like a toddler on first day at school when the former leader vacated Govenrment House just before the 2006 coup, was upset. He allegedly tried to summon Newin but the latter refused to leave the country.

Dec 5,10.30 pm: Pojaman must have landed or she will definitely be landing any minute now, a mini irony as she is one of the first passengers to land at Suvarnabhumi after its reopening.

Among the first questions: Will she be arrested? The only arrest warrant against her, in her capacity as a defendant in the Ratchadapisek land case, has been cancelled after she was acquitted. She was sentenced to jail in a seperate case of tax evasion, but she is still technically in the process of appeal.

Why is she back? Look what Snoh and the Newin group have to say now about the next prime minister and we shall know the answer. Unlike her husband, Pojaman has never spoken politics in public. In fact, I have never seen her speak anything in public. But she is known to be very effective when it comes to backdoor arrangements.

Get ready for renewed talks about Chalerm and Mingkwan as the new PM. As for Chuan and Abhisit, it's back to "so near yet so far" once again.

Dec 6, 10 am: Pojaman is quiet. The Newin group is quiet. The Democrats are quiet. The Puea Thai Party is quiet. Smaller coalition partners are quiet. By "quiet" I mean they are not talking to the media or having nothing new to say. But at times like this, important things usually happen behind the scenes.

Thaksin's spokesman Pongthep Thepkanchana said Pojaman came back to visit her ailing mother. Speculation that she returned to settle things with Newin has been predictably denied. Her house is quiet. Nobody's getting out. Nobody's coming in. There are such things as cell phones, though.

Dec 6, 4 pm: Sorry for my own long silence. The deceptive calm is set to be shattered in the next hour or so. Reports and, ahem, rumours are flooding in at the moment, revolving around the initially scorned scenario of the Democrats serving as the new core of the next government.

The Democrats' "press conference" on the formation of the next government was said to have been scheduled at 5 pm. Shortly after this news reached the press, the Puea Thai side claimed it would have a media conference of its own before that.

Who's the real deal? We shall know soon. Please stay tuned.

Dec 6, 4.20 pm: Democrat sources claim the party now has a commitment of approximate 240 MPs, considerably exceeding the simple majority mark of 224 MPs. The news has come from nowhere as there were no visible talks between the Democrats and the coalition partners over the past two days.

Looking at the reaction from the Puea Thai Party and you feel the Democrat claims have rattled the ruling politicians. "I don't believe the coalition partners will be doing that, especially just a day after pledging their support for us," said Nong Khai MP Pongpan Sunthornchai. "Have Chat Thai and Machima Thipataya MPs forgotten already why their parties were dissolved in the first place?"

Well, we can look at it two ways. Perhaps MPs from both parties "remember" too well why their parties were dissolved in the first place.

A big humble pie awaits me if Abhisit or Chuan is the next prime minister. My no-nonsense dismissal of their chances must have found its way into news groups or web blogs all across the globe.

Dec 6, 4.45 pm: Well, the humble pie is still hanging in the balance. Latest reports from the Democrat camp itself said the 5 pm press conference is now in doubt. Reasons given were Chat Thai playing hard to get. Senior Chat Thai adviser Sanan Kachornprasart, predictabaly, has emerged as a PM contender. There have also been reports that Snoh _ who somehow is still convinced that he is an influential factor _ remains adamant that he wants neither Abhisit or a Puea Thai candidate.

Dec 6, 5 pm: Only some junior Democrats have shown up at the Sukhothai Hotel where the Democrat press conference is scheduled to take place. None of them can give useful information to reporters. The MPs basically know as much as you and me.

However, there is one interesting arrival. Manit Nop-amornbordi from the defunct Machima Thipataya Party told reporters he represented about 10 members of his former party to support the Democrats as the core of the next government.

The press conference has not been officially cancelled. Whatever is going on behind the scenes must be very hectic.

Dec 6, 5.30 pm: It seems the Democrats are being stood up at the Sukhothai Hotel. To be exact, the reporters are being stood up by the Democrats at the hotel. Nobody important has arrived.

On the other side, the Puea Thai Party's headquarters has seen senior members of Puea Paendin and Pracharaj parties arriving. No official announcement has been made, though.

Maybe I have watched too many movies, but in my head I'm seeing Thai politicians sitting in front of laptop computers watching obscene amounts of money going in all directions in frantic wired transfers.

Dec 6, 6.30 pm: I was about to change the headline to "Loosen your seatbelt" when Democrat secretary-general Suthep Thaugsuban told reporters "It's still on. We are the real deal."

Talks are still ongoing, he said. Suthep's confidence is based on the Newin faction still leaning toward the Democrats. The Democrats, as of now, seems to still have Ruamjaithai Chat Pattana under their wing. Puea Paendin is allegedly split, torn between both camps. And Pracharaj seems firmly with Puea Thai.

For now, the fight for Chat Thai votes will be fierce. Sanan's stocks are rising. But actually, with every vote more important than before, everyone's stocks are rising.

Dec 6, 6.45 pm:Urgent, Suthep announces the Democrat Party will form a new government with former Chat Thai MPs, Newin faction members, Ruamjai Thai Chat Pattana, Puea Paendin and Matchima Thipataya parties.

Top representative from Chat Thai, Sanan, is at the press conference, along with leaders of the all mentioned camps.

The humble pie, that is.

Dec 6, 7.10 pm: After taking many deep breaths, it has occurred to me that the party dissolutions mean it won't be that easy for the Democrats. The Sukhothai Hotel press conference looked credible enough, but we have to take into account the fact that Sanan was representing a dissolved Chat Thai, whose MPs are free to go anywhere. The same goes for the defunct Matchima Thiptaya Party.

Snoh is with Puea Thai and Puea Thai souces claimed Chat Thai leader Banharn remained committed with them.

With Puea Thai having 190 MPs at the moment, all it takes is like 35 more MPs to at least create a deadlock. Every vote counts now. I'm keeping the humble pie ready but not eating it yet.

Well, and the thought of Newin being a new kingmaker......

Dec 6, 8 pm: Details of today's behind-the-scenes drama have begun to trickle in. It was said that Pojaman might have returned to Thailand a bit too late, because by the time of her arrival, Sanan's secret talks with the Democrats had already made much progress.

Sanan, according to sources, had been given a greenlight by ex-Chat Thai leader Banharn to decide the dissolved party's future. (What a big irony if you remember the fierce rivalry between the two men when Sanan was secretary-general of the Democrat Party).

The Democrats were confident until their planned press conference was announced early in the afternoon, triggering a hectic response from the Puea Thai Party. Puea Thai senior members, probably acting under instructions of Pojaman, frantically tried to contact Sanan and gave him a BIG offer. After days of insisting that the new prime minister must be someone from Puea Thai, now Sanan was reportedly told by Sompong Amornwiwat that he (Sanan) could take the chief executive post. (Hence the breif rumours in the afternoon that Sanan was the latest prime ministerial candidate)

That proved to be too late, though apparently it managed to throw the Democrats into disarray for a while. Torn between the great Puea Thai offer and fears that he could end up like Samak Sundaravej and Somchai Wongsawat and his government could be short-lived, Sanan chose to back his former rival Abhisit as the new prime minister.

The Democrats claim they now command 250-260 MPs. The biggest question now is whether the proclaimed numbers are secured.

Dec 6, 8.40 pm: It's not over yet. Puea Thai is reportedly trying to tear as many Newin faction members from the Democrat alliance as possible. As I have mentioned before, the party dissolutions have created some sort of a free-for-all situation, and in cutthroat politics like this you are naturally tempted to make yourself available for the highest bidder.

And we are having by-elections coming for 29 seats in the House. What if Puea Thai sweep that?

Dec 6, 9.10 pm: Puea Thai is said to have launched one of the fiercest lobbyings Thai politics has ever seen. The "homeless" MPs whose groups have pledged allegiance with the Democrats are getting phone calls and everyone who matters on the Puea Thai side is being mobilized to make it happen.

They are even having Plan B and Plan C in store. Sources said if Puea Thai couldn't lure enough MPs to its side, acting prime minister Chavarat Charnveerakul could be instructed to dissolve the House. Problem is Chavarat's close connection with Newin may prove a major obstacle.

Plan C is for red-shirt protesters to do a PAD. It will be quite a sight if Parliament is swarmed by demonstrators in red hellbent on obstructing election of the new prime minister.

Dec 7, 1 am: Yes, I was watching Liverpool on TV, but No, nothing important that we know of has happened on the Thai political front. The intense lobbying must have been continuing but I guess we will know nothing until tomorrow.

A lot of thanks for your emails that feel like a year-end bonus. I mean it. Nothing makes a journalist happier than the sort of feedbacks you guys gave me.

Kevin, it's still hard at the moment to know exactly how many MPs from each of the previously pro-government groups are defecting to the Democrats. All we know are proclaimed numbers provided by the Democrats. They say the alliance is made of 166 Democrat MPs, 15 Chat Thai MPs, 10 Machima Thipataya MPs, 22 Puea Paendin MPs and 37 Newin faction MPs.

The Democrats also claim 12 more, mostly from the dissolved PPP, could also join them.

Tomorrow it can be either clearer or messier.

David, I hope your cold dinner still tasted good. You really deserve that for your e-mail. Rupert, "Old Farang", Kenneth, thank you all.

Dec 7, 1.30 am: Gossip time. We have assessed the following information, compared notes with some other news websites, and decided that we should share it with you. Please bear in mind, however, that this is the time when half-truth or lies are usually told by politicians, be it the most rigtheous or shameless ones.

Gossip One: Newin has told Suthep: "Thaksin no longer trusts me. That makes it difficult to stay with the other side."

Gossip Two: Thaksin was one of those who called Sanan to offer him the premiership. The others include ex-PM Somchai Wongsawat and Sudarat Keyuraphan.

Gossip Three: Key members of the Democrat-led alliance went to meet Army chief Anupong Paochinda at his Army reception home before the press conference.

Gossip Four: Newin's initial condition was that Chuan had to be prime minister. Suthep talked him out of that by citing Chuan's rigid principles when it comes to naming Cabinet ministers. Abhisit was much more flexible, Newin was told.

Gossip Five: Newin's faction was not as united as we believed, and up to 17 (out of 37) may remain "up for grab".

Dec 7, 1 pm: "Newin backing Abhisit as PM. Should we laugh or cry?" A reader texted me. Well, we can laugh until our tears run dry. Seriously though, it's not quite over yet. The Democrats are having an executive board meeting at 2 pm and the Chuan-Abhisit issue is expected to be discussed. As we have heard, the Newin faction is still gritting its teeth over Abhisit, making many faction members "vulnerable" to the sugar daddy on the other side.

This morning the Puea Thai Party has voted to elect Youngyuth Wichaidit as its new leader. The decision, reportedly a change of heart by ex-prime minister Somchai Wongsawat and his wife Yaowapa, reportedly puzzled favourite candidate Yingluck Shinawatra, Thaksin's sister, for a while but she finally came to term with it.

Yongyuth is an OK man but with no premiership materials. The party also appointed an executive board that comprises totally low-profile and non-MP figures. The motives are evident: When/if another party dissolution storm brews, no big names will be affected. This, I'm afraid, will be an established formula for most parties in the future when it comes to appointing their executives. Funny, isn't it? Just when we are trying to get rid of "nominees" now it will be hard to walk into Parliament and not bump into someone who isn't some nominee's nominee.

From what we have heard, the Puea Thai Party is still putting up a fight. I think it will go down to the wire and unless a royal command is handed down approving the nomination of Abhisit or Chuan, the Democrats can never be sure. According to Suthep, the Puea Thai camp is making a very sweet offer: If you come to us with 5 MPs, you'll get one Cabinet post.

Knowing Thai politicians, many jaws must have hit the floor and a lot of hush-hush meetings may be already taking place.

Note: From here on, Puea Thai will be spelt "Phue Thai" according to its registration documents.

Dec 7, 3.30 pm: From Greg Love (Hua Hin): "Will the Democrats go about appointing ministers with so many factions to please, and still have enough left to please their own loyal members? I mean this is Thailand, and I would imagine the rats leaving their sinking ships still have a price......or is maybe a truly new generation arising???"

If the Democrats survive the Pheu Thai Party's last-minute do-or-die onslaught, and if the threats of the "Red Army" besieging Parliament do not materialise, the real hard part will begin. But with their own party still intact, I mean never been "diluted" by court dissolution orders, the Democrats will be able to find enough credible names under their quota to fill the Cabinet. Of course, you will see names from the other camps that may make you shake your head, but as far as human resources go, the Democrats have a good advantage compared with their Pheu Thai rivals.

But what do we have here _ rats jumping ships or a new brave generation coming of age? Well, let's say this new generation of rats are quite brave to leave their ships like that.

The Democrats' real advantage, however, will be the lack of pressure to amend the Constitution. The Samak and Somchai governments fell simply because constitutional amendments became their agenda, something that either provoked or played into the hands of the PAD.

A Democrat government will likely face a different kind of street pressure, though. How far the red-shirt movement will go to bring it down will remain to be seen, however.

"Today's Truth" TV programme hosts have held another mobile forum, in which they condemned the "new form of coup" and Anupong in particular. The three hosts _ Veera Musigapong, Jatuporn Prompan and Nattawut Saikua _ did not make an explicit call for a red-shirt uprising but they did repeatedly say what was happening on the political scene was "unacceptable." Thaksin's planned phone-in on Dec 13 is apparently still on and he is set to "say it all", according to the TV hosts.

Dec 7, 6.30 pm: Abhisit has made his first public statement since becoming the front-runner for premiership. The fact that he had spoken out about it is more important than his expected national-unity-is-my-agenda message. He would not have gone public with any agenda if he had not been confident of support right now.

Abhisit said his government would strive to bring back national harmony, restore the country's image and repair damage caused to tourism by the political showdown. Asked if he was worried that the political conflicts would make his government shortlived like the last two administrations, he said how long his government stays depends mainly on its perfomance.

"You can look at it two ways. On one hand, this is a time of crisis which makes it very difficult for all of us. On the other hand, it will force us to really work and devote ourselves and listen to what society has to say at the same time," Abhisit said.

I never doubt his oratory skills, be it on a big stage or in a mini group interview. I think few do. His real challenge, obviously, is how to act, mobilize, implement and execute as the chief executive of a deeply-divided nation still in reeling and in turmoil. Most of all, how he can reinvent himself as a remotely neutral leader after having been dragged to much to one side of the conflict may have to be the first priority on his agenda.

Dec 7, 10 pm: "At which point do you believe we will actually get real clarity as to whom is to govern, and do you think they will have the mandate from the public to do so successfully?" asks Michael Brear.

When the prime minister is sworn in. No kidding here, Mike. The Democrats are not certain themselves. Rumours about some members of the Newin camp are to be "priced out" of the alliance are continuous. And even though Sanan has pledged to support the Democrats, there is no guarantee all MPs of the defunct Chat Thai Party would follow him. This is why Abhisit and Suthep will pay a courtesy call on Banharn tomorrow to make an earnest plea for his support.

You also mentioned a UN-observed new election in the future. I can't laugh at that. Believe it or not, I wrote an article a year and a half ago joking that the PAD will become a fortress of militants with gun-totting guards searching visitors. What do we know?

Now from Jeremy: "Please enlighten me: all this reporting of Newin siding with the Democrats, Newin changing his mind, Newin this and Newin that - has everyone forgotten that he was banned from politics? Doesn't that ban carry any weight? Can't he be taken to task from being so blatantly involved with political manoevouring? I simply do not understand"

Welcome to the club, buddy.

Dec 8, 11.30 am: A quick wrap-up for you. The Democrats now want the House to convene the extra session ASAP because the Pheu Thai manoeuvring to unsettle the alliance is getting more intense by the minute. A motion to convene the House session, remember, has to be approved by the King.

Acting PM Chavarat has apparently dismissed a House dissolution, saying he has been told, or warned, that it could only prolong the crisis. Moreover, he admitted that he was not even sure he had the power to dissolve the House.

The Democrats surely don't want this to drag on. Rumours have it the Newin faction is in danger of a break-up. The Pheu Thai Party now is claiming about 202 MPs. All it takes is some 25 more and we are back to the stalemate.

I will be back in the afternoon. Please stay tuned. You can also follow major breaking news on the breaking news section of our website.

Dec 8, 3 pm: The Democrat motion to convene a special House session has been submitted. The Pheu Thai Party is also planning to submit a similar motion of its own. House Speaker Chai said it would take about three days to check the signatures before the Democrat motion can be presented to HM the King.

As of now, the House session may take place as late as next week. It promises to be a very long, anxious wait for Abhisit. Our latest information has it that only 21 Newin faction MPs remain committed to the Democrat alliance.

Dec 8, 3.30 pm: While we are waiting for new major developments, here are some Abhisit fun facts:

...Former finance minister Tarrin Nimanahaeminda, who was always reported to be at odds with Abhisit at the Democrat Party, once described his young party colleague as having an "exceptional mind".

....That "exceptional mind" once put his ATM code near his ATM card, and a house maid reportedly exploited them big time.

....He's addicted to iPod. His carries like 8,000 songs.

....His whole family doesn't eat breakfast.

....If you aren't his close relative, never expect to enter his house. He never invites anyone, using the same old "It's so messy" excuse.

....He wakes up very early, and loves to drive his kids to school.

Dec 8, 4.30 pm: Chalerm has finally come out and quickly made up for his unusal silence over the past few days. "He who laughs last laughs the loudest," he said. According to him, the Democrats must be quaking in their boots now after several members of the Newin faction have refused to jump on the Abhisit bandwagon. In my humble opinion, whether the Newin faction speculation is true or false, Chalerm will do the Pheu Thai Party a whole world of good if he keeps his mouth shut. I mean, what's the use of reminding anyone that he's a challenger for the PM post on the Pheu Thai side?

To add to the Democrats' anxiety, rumours have it that the PAD may not be totally happy with what's going on, or with being practically left out to be precise. Some pro-PAD and anti-Democrat articles have emerged. And a very weird conspiracy theory has been leaked from the PAD alleging there's a possibility of a Thaksin-Demcorat secret handshake. The Manager website is at the moment highlighting calls for both camps to "stall" efforts to form a new government until all legal questions related to the three parties' dissolution are cleared.

Dec 8, 6 pm: We have just had our last news meeting of the day and the Abhisit-is-sure-bet sentiment has become anything but. Although he and Suthep gave lovely flowers to Banharn, the latter didn't return the favour by pledging his full support for a Democrat government. Or maybe Banharn has simply lost control of the MPs leaving his dissolved party in all directions.

The mind game is continuing, with the Pheu Thai camp being the one making louder noises. To compound the Democrats' worries, questions have resurfaced regarding the party list MPs' status, causing doubts about whether a House forum with them participating will be legitimate. And worse, House speaker Chai is one of the party list MP.

If we have to wait for the Constitution Court to rule on the party list issue before the House can elect the new PM, the alleged on-going bidding war may reach insane proportions. X'mas must have come early for many of our MPs.

Dec 9, 1.30 am: You can't say Thailand is not a democratically mature country when our top prime ministerial candidate is being scrutinised for his military records. To cut a long story short, Abhisit's opponents said he never got proper exemption for military service, and that his brief spell as a teacher at the Chulachomklao Military Academy could not compensate for that. (And since he was never legally exempted, his recruitment as the academy's teacher could have been a result of false documents.)

This issue was brought up against him in Parliament many years ago with little political impact. At that time, however, he was not someone who was poised to be prime minister three months after an incument prime minister had been removed by the court for hosting a TV cooking show.

The three hosts of "Today's Truth" have vowed not to give it a rest this time round.

But the Democrats will worry about that later. The outgoing Cabinet is scheduled to meet possibly for the last time today, but on its agenda is reportedly the possibility of a House dissolution (whether acting PM Chavarat should dissolve the House and if he is constitutionally empowered to do it). We have known that Chavarat, with his close ties to Newin, didn't want to dissolve the House and has been warned against it without the legal questions being answered first. But the Cabinet agenda is a cause for concern anyway.

The Democrats have not choice but to keep the reluctant allies in line by continuing talks with them over how the Cabinet cake is to be shared. The allies have been told they will keep their PPP-era quotas. House Speaker Chai may move over to the administrative side and assume the transport portfolio (which should make his son Newin reasonably happy) while former Democrat leader Banyat Bantadtan may replace him as the speaker.

Some news websites have gone as far as naming names for key Cabinet portfolios. A little too early for that, don't you think?

Gossip of the day: According to a Newin faction member, Newin told Thaksin when the latter called and pleaded for him to stay: "It's over, boss. I have come this far. Let's go our own (separate) ways politically."

Dec 9, 11 am: On Dec 3, I wrote: "If Banharn agreed to back Abhisit after that demonstration of unbearable pain, grief and anger in the wake of his party's dissolution, why doesn't he go for a better option of entering monkhood and take a shot at nirvana?"

Well, why not do all that in one go? News reports today quoted him as saying that he's considering becoming a monk after all this is over.

Kevin Crossfield, in his second email, won't rush to judgement on whether Thailand is democratically mature, but he questions the country's competitiveness in mathematics. "3 days to check a few dozens signatures - thats a long time!!!!!!!!!!" he wrote me, referring to the time the House of Representatives needs to verify the motion to convene a special session.

Yes, in normal circumstances. But imagine a couple of parliamentary secretaries trying to reach 60 MPs whose all communications devices all plugged in exclusively for cash transfer activities. Not that easy, eh?

Dec 9, 11.30 am: Leaders of the defunct Chat Thai and Matchima Thipataya parties, Puea Paendin and Ruamjaithai Chat Pattana parties are set to have a joint press conference at noon. Oh please, I can't take any more surprise.

Abhisit's fans, however, can take heart from the latest comment by ex-prime minister Somchai Wongsawat: "The new leader I heard is someone who's handsome and kind. All the best to the new government. Everyone should start playing by the rules now because our problems were priminarily caused by the country's rules not being respected. As for me, it has been neither a loss nor a gain, just a great experience."

Wow...

You can follow the developments on our website. I will be away for a couple of hours.

Dec 9, 5.30 pm: What a difference one photo can make. Newin and Abhisit hugging and all of a sudden the Democrat alliance now is looking more than assured. Adding a press conference by the other allies defecting from the Pheu Thai camp, during which they reiterated support for the young Democrat leader, the race, which has been tormenting you and me for a week, appears very near its conclusion.

More comments, updates and analyses, however, will continue on this space until the next PM is sworn it. Please don't get bored yet.

Dec 10, 1 am: Our last news meeting at 7 pm had a Democrats-back-on-track sentiment. Newin, to many in the newsroom, now looked like that half-angel half-devil attorney guy in Batman: The Dark Knight. "He doesn't look that ugly after all," one of our web-editors commented. A property reporter disagreed, saying Newin looked so horrible it infected Abhisit.

The Pheu Thai camp is still showing admirable fighting spirit. Take away Chalerm Yoobamrung and Snoh Thienthong and I'm sure public sympathy can swing overwhelmingly to its side. Too bad it's now both of them doing all the talking, delivering one memorable quote after another. "I don't know why they (the Democrats) are so full of lust. They know full well a partisan government will cause more trouble to the country but they will still go for it," Snoh said. "Haven't you noticed that most of those showed up for TV footages and photo sessions with the Democrats are ones who can't vote?" Chalerm added. "I don't care the heads; they can join the Democrats. For those who are still MPs, please come here. Come on now. Don't you (the ex-allies) want to be prime minister?"

It sounded more desperate than belligerent. Pheu Thai has been dropping its key demands in a bid to lure the allies back. From initially insisting that the prime minister must be someone from the party, it's now promoting the idea of a "national government" headed by a non-Democrat non-Pheu Thai prime minister who will dissolve the House after one year to return the power to the people. "Not that we can't gather enough support to form our own government. We just want to get the country out of the crisis," said a Pheu Thai senior member.

Dec 10, 6 pm: In Thailand, the smells of political demise are the strongest when most-wanted guests do not show up at the party you throw to test allegiance. As I'm typing this, Snoh Thienthong, the Pracharaj leader assigned by Pheu Thai to spearhead last-ditch efforts to form a new government, is still waiting. Website photos show empty tables and empty chairs. The Newin faction is nowhere to be seen. The Chat Thai camp has not sent anyone. Abhisit has wrapped up his "thank you" tour by visiting Puea Paendin leader Pracha Promnok who is among a decreasing number of political bigwigs who have not openly supported him as the new prime minister. To add to the gloom and doom, even ex-PM Somchai Wongsawat and new Pheu Thai leader Yongyuth Wichaidit, both of whom arrived early, have left Snoh's house.

Snoh had invited anyone who mattered to his house after the Pheu Thai camp started promoting the "national government" idea and dropped its stumbling block demand that only a Pheu Thai candidate must be prime minister.

It's not over until the fat lady sings. In their vociferous press statement on Tuesday, both Snoh and Chalerm Yoobamrung insisted they wouldn't accept defeat until the parliamentary vote to pick the new PM is finished. Will Chalerm and Snoh be the one who laugh last, or will they cry all the way to the end of the House vote? We'll know in a few days.

Dec 10, 7.30 pm: How on earth didn't I post this? Anyway, for those of you who haven't read it from somewhere else, here's the most touching part of Newin's message to Abhisit that further romanticized their historic embrace that must have brought tears to Thaksin's eyes: "We just want to assure the Democrat Party that nothing will change from today until the vote for prime minister is over (and beyond). This is a man-to-man promise. We will stick with you even if the Democrat Party is left alone. ...We would like to tell Khun Abhisit Vejjajiva that please don't let our pain and sacrifice go to waste. We have decided to work with you at the prices of losing our friends, our party and our bosss. A lot of people have said we are here to bargain, but I guarantee you. Today our country is more important than anything else."

Speechless? That makes two of us.

Dec 10, 8 pm: Not many more guests have joined the Snoh party, to the increasing embarrassment of the host. "Let's spread out and fill the tables," he told those who arrived when it became clear that cold dinner would only add more spice to tomorrow's headlines. At one point he used the word "cobras" to describe the absentees. It was meant to be a joke to cheer up the Pheu Thai and Pracharaj MPs who were present, but it drew only soft, mandatory laughter.

A TV camera caught him speaking on the phone begging Anongwan Thepsutin, ex-leader of the dissolved Matchima Thipataya Party, to come. "Go to see your doctor first and then come. We can wait," he was overheard saying. What the other side replied was anyone's guess. What would you say when your polite excuse didn't work?

Dec 10, 11 pm: The Democrats have become a bunch of paranoids now, for good reasons. Party secretary-general Suthep, looking sincerely uncertain, has told reporters earlier today he was afraid Thaksin's planned phone-in to his supporters this Saturday can turn this race upside down. "Our legs are still shaking," he said. "If the vote takes place before Saturday, we are very sure we will form the government. But if it takes place later, the phone-in can be a big turning point."

Thaksin telling his "beloved brothers and sisters" to punish the betrayers in the next election is a very likely scenario. But if we can foresee this, why can't all the Judas? Such a consequence should be the first thing on their minds when they decided to stab him in the back.

No more news from the stood-up Snoh. "U r enjoying his ordeal," said one SMS. Has it been so obvious?

Dec 11, 4 pm: It has been same-old, same-old since my last update. One interesting development had to do with what will become generally known as the "Siamese twin" posture. The Pheu Thai camp is wondering why the Election Commission simply stood there and watched the embrace of the century while it was so clear that Newin Chidchob was violating his "political ban" whereas Abhisit Vejjajiva wellcomed the offence with, literally, open arms.

The dismayed Pheu Thai Party said there was plenty of evidence because the photos and video clips of the two men hugging have been seen all over the world, not to mention direct and indirect quotes from Newin about how painful it was for him to abandon his master in order to back Abhisit as the new prime minister.

Well, they are asking the questions many days after Jeremy did. I guess I have no new answer to offer and can only throw one question back to Pheu Thai: Should someone ask the EC to investigate Thaksin Shinawatra as well because I have heard that he has been addressing many vociferous political rallies?

Dec 12, 1 am: Now Snoh has been rumoured to be sending the Democrats an olive branch. Give us the labour portfolio and one deputy minister seat and I'm yours, he allegedly said.

If you have followed this unique history of political absurdity from day one, you must have lost the ability to discount this most ridiculous rumour yet. And trust me when I say I'm not putting this on because I have nothing else to update. I'm truly having a horrible feeling that whoever the script writer is, he may be having the funny thought of ending all this with Snoh hugging Abhisit like a long-lost son.

In public, though, Snoh remains adamant about the "national government". He has vowed to be the one to nominate Puea Paendin leader Pracha Promnok for the PM post. Bad news is Pracha has been calling in sick over the past two days, and from his bed at the Bangkok Hospital he told reporters: "I can't have any comment right now. Please wait until after I'm discharged. When? I don't know; I'm waiting for the doctor to decide."

For your information, Pracha is having a cold, and looking stronger than many hollow-eyed reporters losing sleep from this on-going circus.

"A 55M Baht offer to change parties is a huge sum of money! How could a sane person turn down that much cash? I wonder," a "concerned friend" asked me in an e-mail. Easy. The best way to turn that down is think of an even bigger amount that will surely be offered if you say "No" this time. Seriously, Thai politics has been mostly about naming your price and it won't change easily.

Q&A time by good old Kevin.

Q: What is the difference between vote buying and MP buying?

A: The EC is not empowered to investigate the latter. (This has been confirmed by the EC itself.)

Dec 13, 1 pm: So, we are in the stoppage time now. One way or another, this race has to come to an end. Two days to go before the House of Representatives is to convene its special session to elect the new PM. Elsewhere on earth these two days would be spent on thank-you parties or drunken reflections on what went wrong. In Thai political terms, though, the last two days before a prime minister is named mean seven minutes of injury time with the score tied at 1-1.

Demonstrators in red shirts have begun filing into the Supachalasai stadium. It certainly will be filled up by the evening, when Thaksin is scheduled to make what could probably be his most important phone-in.

Will he definitely call? There have been conflicting statements on that but in the end I think he will call. Up against the ropes receiving countless blows, it's natural to try one wild swing and hope for the best.

What will he say to his supporters? It was rumoured that that the last time Newin the Judas had to restrain (censor) Thaksin or his speech would have been a big bombshell. With Newin now officially on the other side and him having nothing to lose, will Thaksin go for broke? Or will he just ask his mass support to be patient and punish every traitor in the next election, whenever it takes place?

We shall know soon.

Not much to update on the numbers. The Democrats still are confident that they have up to 260 votes in the pocket. The Pheu Thai camp is claiming around 220 MPs.

Eat big lunches boys. It could be a good, exciting evening.

Dec 13, 4pm: Quotes of the day

Pheu Thai's Surapong Tovijakchaikul: "If Chuan Leekpai's words are a honey-coated razor blade, Thaksin's words today will be a surgeon's knife that will seperate the Siamese twins."

Snoh Thienthong: "Everything is settled now. There is absolutely nothing to worry about. Our plan to set up a national government will win the day hands down."

A Pheu Thai source, quoted on Matichon website: "Pheu Thai MPs have been told they must watch out. Some people may try to kidnap them before Monday's vote."

Meanwhile, Snoh has claimed Suthep tried to contact him like a boyfriend-turned-stalker. "I didn't intend to make this public but now I have to counter the rumours being leaked. He used an old tactic of trying to set up an appointment with me. If I agreed, he would have me. He would tell everyone that I gave in.

He tried to tel me that this party and that party wanted me to join. Has he gone insane? I have made clear-cut press statements and I would have been a dog if I had accepted his proposal. after that call in the evening he made more calls at night. When I stood firm, he said he would still respect me and we said goodbye."

Dec 13, 7.30 pm: If the prelude is any indication, Thaksin's phone-in will be spectacular. Jakkapob Penkair has pleaded to loud cheers in the packed stadium for red protesters to show their power and make MPs who betrayed Thaksin change their minds. He vowed not to rest until the PAD is charged with terrorism. Last but not least, he said the international community now knows of the conspiracy that is the PAD.

He said men in red are now taking roots in more provinces and even spreading to the United States, Canada and Australia. "We are one big democracy family," he said. "We don't belong to any particular group or particular party. We own the MPs, not the other way rounds. ...I'm asking you, my brothers and sisters in red, to show them our real power. The MPs must return the power to us. Go visit them or call them to remind them they owe us a big gratitude. Make them change their minds within these next 48 hours."

Thaksin has reportedly called the organisers to see how today's plan was going. He was said to be satisfied. His speech, it is believed, will be an attack on the Democrats and their "undemocratic" means of assuming state power.

Dec 13, 10 pm: It looks like a swangsong to me. The day is ending in a low-profile manner with the much-anticipated phone-in being replaced with a taped speech. Thaksin did not name any name in the speech. He, as expected, condemned a "coup in disguise", apparently referring to the party dissolution court rulings and the alleged military hands in the shift in parliamentary allegiance to the Democrats.

Newin was shided for his "ingratitude" and a prediction was made that the Thai crisis will be prolonged because of the deepening divide. The Suvarnabhumi shutdown was deplored as a big blow to the economy and Thailand's image.

All in all, it sounded more solemn than belligerent. With Thaksin, though, we can never be sure.

http://nationmultimedia.com/2008/12/14/hea...es_30090182.php

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[Moonrakers]

Sod reading all of that.

No disrespect to coalminer but could somebody please summarise it.

[mahtin]

Sod reading all of that.

No disrespect to coalminer but could somebody please summarise it.

Pompous self-indulgent crap.

[Lickey]

Saturday night,3/4 lines ok but all that,well, Sunday morning paper read will be ok, will read in the morning Coalminer.

[mijan24]

Sod reading all of that.

No disrespect to coalminer but could somebody please summarise it.

This is the summarised version Wholly <deleted> !!! Whats he do read telephone books for relaxation.

[phaethon]

Sod reading all of that.

No disrespect to coalminer but could somebody please summarise it.

Same-same

TIT

Mai bpen rai

[Nampeung]

Gawd !!!

[siam4ever]

It doesn't take a long story to tell that the PAD is a right wing elitist group using the tactics of terrorism and intimidation to achieve their goal of total control at any cost. Nothing more need be said!

[marshbags]

Sod reading all of that.

No disrespect to coalminer but could somebody please summarise it.

No offence to CM either and it,s a handy reference for anyone who hasn,t been up to speed on what,s been happening, for guidance at least.

It reminds me of trying to read our Thai News Clippings after being away for awhile, a day in the present times is bad enough during the fast changing / lastest developments, politically ect.

marshbags

Edited December 14, 2008 by marshbags

[LooseCannon]

It doesn't pretend to be any more than one man's comments, thoughts & analysis made from one sided phone calls, reading between the lines, selective hearing, preconceived ideas & much more.

Biased? Partisan? - absolutely & without shame.

I read this article daily as the events unfolded & it was infinitely more digestable & relevant when read in conjunction with many other (biased) articles & (biased) commentaries that were available, & as such found it quite novel & interesting.

For myself, I try to remain as objective as possible, take multiple steps back & observe the machinations, Machiavellian intrigue & blatant corruption of Thai politics from afar. With allegiances & loyalties changing at the drop of a hat (or B50 mil+) the true nature of Thai politics comes sharply into focus.

For what it's worth, I think there needs to be a political party with a distinct socialist left bias to represent the rural poor & urban working classes, totally divorced from any of the existing parties which only serve the urban elites, the capitalist & middle classes.

Were would this party come from? - maybe the numerous grass roots activists found all over Thailand fighting the against the vested interest of the powerful & corrupt, whether it be power stations, illegal logging, land encroachment, pollution of water supplies etc. These are the sort of people that I would like to see in the Thai parliament.

Idealistic? - Yes. Will it ever happen? - hopefully because it is the only way forward. The current crop of politicians, accross the board, are totally incapable & unwilling to put the interests of the country above their own selfish & greedy appetite for power & money.

[Koo82]

Yet there are people who insisted that the Chat Thai Party did not earn the nickname "Eel" for nothing.

He is eel on skate, not a regular eel

I thought he was in so much pain after his party was dissolved, knowing Democrat Party was behind the scene, that he would not even think of joining Demo.

[girlx]

Sod reading all of that.

No disrespect to coalminer but could somebody please summarise it.

[Master Chief]

The sum of all facts:

Thai politicians do not know who rules the country in facto, dimwit TS has no clue at all, that is why he is on the run.