3 Million Tourists Disappear During December - March

[geriatrickid]

However, it is possible to be optimistic.

See Hagler's response as to why I laugh.

Yes very nice for the semi-skilled and unskilled workers and other riff raff to head off back to the rice paddies where they will all be happy eating insects and drinking mekong with the family again. You must be joking. Within 2 years Thailand will be another Cambodia and all hel_l will break loose as the disenfranchised Isaan poor are led to a "workers revolution" against the ruling urban elite.

It's a pretty safe bet that if one jumps from a tall building, one will injure himself. Hagler's summary is why one cannot be optimistic. Consider the following;

- Rural areas do not have job opportunities that allow newcomers to earn money with which to buy goods and services.

- Reduced income leads to health problems as bored & frustrated people consume drugs, alcohol and do not eat properly.

- Overcrowded homes = anger + frustration = domestic violence + crime

- Unemployed youth = idle hands + angry frustrated males = crime

How do you propose that the villages cope with the influx of all the newly unemployed? Do these villages have the infrastructure or the jobs needed to support these returnees? There is nothing joyous about living in an overcrowded home or raw sewage flooding the streets. If you have ever seen the sewage facilities in some of the rural areas you will understand that they can not cope with large population surges. All it takes is one well to be contaminated for cholera to take hold. Toss in humans living in high density situations that may be malnourished and you have the recipe for disease and social dysfunction.

It wasn't too long ago that Thailand's rural areas had serious malnutrition problems associated with infants and children. This situation will reappear unless feeding programs are ready.

People left the villages because their opportunities were limited. Now you are optimistic that they have gone back to that?

Edited December 18, 2008 by geriatrickid

[Vato]

<br />

... so the fall of the world economy doesnt have anything to do with it ehh?

<br /><br />..so the occupation of the airport doesn't have anything to do with the expected "disappearance of 3 million tourists" ehh?<br /><br />Didn't I read Bangkok 5 star hotels are empty right now, some Bangkok convention cancelled due to Madoff's Ponzi scheme?<br /><br />Oh, now they have Abhisit can we expect better English in official Thai statements? <img src="style_emoticons/default/rolleyes.gif" style="vertical-align:middle" emoid="" border="0" alt="rolleyes.gif" /><br />

<br /><br /><br />

of course it does...but i would hesitate to say that it is the sole reason at this time during the month of December... it IS christmas time you know...when most people travel home.

wait until after the holiday season and hopefully the figures wont be as bad as projected...hopefully.

people have short memories, the travel industry will rebound from this...but not so soon from the world economy.

and before any thaksin supporters mention it....yes, the occupation of the airport by PAD was a bad move.

[Koo82]

I love it. The ruling PAD shot themselves in the foot. Nice job you elite idiots

This will teach them not to support the PAD again.

Edited December 18, 2008 by Koo82

[MyphuketLife]

How many jobs is that reduction going to cost?

1000's?

10000's?

100000's?

More?

All hail the Airport Shutdowns, Government buildings takeovers and general unlawful demonstrations.

Way to go PAD.

How long is it going to take for all the professional PAD propagandists posters to start saying that the airport closure has nothing to do with the massive drop in tourists?

they have been spewing that crap in all the other threads... I can't wait to see their spin at work in this thread....

[MyphuketLife]

3 million people disappear...wow, hope hey all find them in the end. Would be awful if something would happened to them.

Their relatives most be worried.

Good to see someone can find the loss of jobs and livelyhood a joking matter.

I don't tthink anyone's finding the loss of livelyhood humourous just TAT's way of putting it. But it is funny how TAT can always find good reason why tourist numbers are down and be able to put solid figures to the reduction. You could almost be led into suspecting such problems as the PAD occupation of Suvarnabhumi are TAT sponsored so that they can revise their deficient forecasts without losing face.

So occupying the airport was not an attempt to force Thanksin crownies out? That was the cover story the real story is it was a grandscheme so the TAT could fudge numbers on a report? Thanks for making me laugh, I needed it!

[JoeThePoster]

to neighbouring countries particularly Bali and Malaysia," said TCT president Kongkrit Hiranyakit

Should someone tell this guy that Bali is not an independent country?

[LaoPo]

Thanks to an article posted by Member Pilchard, elsewhere on this forum:

Holiday season in crisis as Thai tourism plummets

By JOCELYN GECKER –

SAMUI, Thailand (AP) — The palm-fringed island of Samui normally fills up for the holidays, but what stands out these days is its emptiness.

The sprawling Tongsai Bay resort, where guests are shuttled around in golf carts, has reduced hours for staff and even installed lower-wattage light bulbs to reduce electricity bills to cut costs amid the slowdown, said assistant manager Chonlatee Nakamadee.

"We can't believe how quiet it is here," said Karen Jack, a 37-year-old secretary from London. "There's been a couple of nights when we've been the only people in the restaurant."

The hangover from political unrest including an eight-day blockade of Bangkok's airport is not going away: Cancelations are pouring in from around the world — just as the high season is starting and the economy is slowing amid the global financial meltdown.

Tourism authorities predict business will be worse next year than after the tsunami in December 2004. Airlines and luxury hotels have slashed rates, some offering two nights for the price of one. High-level staff at one Bangkok hotel have taken 25 percent to 30 percent salary cuts.

The slowdown could push Thailand's economy into recession. The government forecast a contraction of up to 1 percent in the first quarter of 2009 and zero growth in the second quarter. Tourism brought in about $16 billion in revenue last year, about 6.5 percent of the country's gross domestic product.

Bangkok, the capital city, is especially hard hit.

The loudest sound in the elegant lobby of The Peninsula is a toy train chugging through a gingerbread village near a 28-foot (8.5-meter) Christmas tree. The hotel has temporarily closed its bar and two of its six restaurants.

"The decorations are beautiful. It's just a pity there aren't more people to see it," said Charles Morris, general manager of the 370-room hotel, where the occupancy rate sank below 10 percent earlier this month.

The lebua hotel, where occupancy is 16 percent compared to 80 percent this time last year, has stopped all advertising until June. "All expatriate staff working here have taken 25 to 30 percent salary cuts — all of us," said Deepak Ohri, chief executive of the luxury hotel.

Thai hotels typically average 85 percent occupancy during the holidays, but many in Bangkok are less than 20 percent full, said Juthaporn Rerngronasa, a deputy governor at the Tourism Authority of Thailand.

Her agency has devised a two-part strategy to revive Thailand's image as a laid-back paradise.

First: a big apology. The tourism authority is compiling a list of e-mail addresses of stranded passengers, collected from airlines and hotels. It plans to send a message "to express our regrets," Juthaporn said.

Second: big discounts. The authority has asked hotels and airlines to reduce high season rates and fares. Its "Amazing Thailand" campaign is being redubbed "Amazing Thailand, Amazing Value."

Southeast Asia's top budget carrier AirAsia is collaborating with an offer of 100,000 free tickets to Thailand under a regional marketing campaign — "Get Your Baht to Thailand."

Thai Airways and Bangkok Airways, which were crippled by the airport closures, are offering domestic roundtrip fares in the $100 range to the country's most popular beaches — Phuket, Krabi and Samui — and the northern city of Chiang Mai, famed for its elephant treks and Buddhist meditation retreats.

The tourism authority estimates the number of tourists will decline over the next six months by 2.5 million, costing the industry 100 billion baht ($3 billion).

That's in addition to 1.9 billion baht ($54 million) spent by the government to lodge and feed stranded tourists during the airport shutdown — and the millions lost by airlines and exporters.

The biggest falloff is among Asians, who accounted for more than half of the 14.8 million visitors to Thailand last year. Some 90 percent of Japanese and Chinese travelers have canceled upcoming trips, said Apichart Sankary, president of the 1,300-member Association of Thai Travel Agents.

Many hotels are trying to lure domestic travelers to fill some of the gap by halving room rates.

"While overseas tourists aren't coming, our strategy is to have more promotions for Thai people and residents," said Juthaporn of the tourism authority.

Andrew Herdman, director of the Malaysia-based Association of Asia Pacific Airlines, remains optimistic for the long-term, noting Thailand has bounced back from the tsunami and other earlier crises.

"We've seen dips in the past and Thailand has always come back very strongly, because there is an underlying reservoir of trust and good feeling about Thailand," he said.

But as the sun set over the island of Samui recently, happy hour faded to dinner time without a single customer at the Lunar beach bar. Even moving happy hour up to 2 p.m. hasn't brought in business, said the bar's owner, Pannipa Sritawan.

"It's supposed to be the high season," she sighed.

-The Associated Press

LaoPo

[Heng]

The sprawling Tongsai Bay resort, where guests are shuttled around in golf carts, has reduced hours for staff and even installed lower-wattage light bulbs to reduce electricity bills to cut costs amid the slowdown, said assistant manager Chonlatee Nakamadee.

Tongsai Bay (at least on our visits) can be awfully quiet even when things are good. I don't think I've ever been where it was even half full in "high" season.

[endure]

The ex Prime Minister's name is Shinawatra. If you don't want your posts deleted out of hand you will remember this fact.

[erobando]

3 million people disappear...wow, hope hey all find them in the end. Would be awful if something would happened to them.

Their relatives most be worried.

Good to see someone can find the loss of jobs and livelyhood a joking matter.

I don't tthink anyone's finding the loss of livelyhood humourous just TAT's way of putting it. But it is funny how TAT can always find good reason why tourist numbers are down and be able to put solid figures to the reduction. You could almost be led into suspecting such problems as the PAD occupation of Suvarnabhumi are TAT sponsored so that they can revise their deficient forecasts without losing face.

No, nobody's joking. In fact, it's quite serious.

The longer these people remain missing, the more hurtage will be done to the Thai tourist industry.

Things that will scare off tourists: 3 Million(!) Tourists vanished > Airports closed for a week

[dee123]

.....if u are thinking of changing your holiday plans, Bangkok to Bali,......well I read yesterday there is a Rabies outbreak in Bali,.....(just to let u know)......scares the life out of me,,.....ie dog/cat licking open wound,....

[Ricardo]

Would anyone agree that the on-going violence by the red-shirts, blockading courts or throwing bricks & acid at cars, and being televised round the world, also contributes to an off-putting image of continuing violence ?

Or perhaps the average asian or farang tourist can tell the difference, between patriots protesting a 'silent coup', and patriots protesting undemocratic constitutional changes ?

[Steve2UK]

Would anyone agree that the on-going violence by the red-shirts, blockading courts or throwing bricks & acid at cars, and being televised round the world, also contributes to an off-putting image of continuing violence ?

Who could reasonably disagree? Red, yellow, puce or green-with-blue stripes - those images can't help but to continue unsettling would-be tourists, business visitors and investors.

[Thai at Heart]

Would anyone agree that the on-going violence by the red-shirts, blockading courts or throwing bricks & acid at cars, and being televised round the world, also contributes to an off-putting image of continuing violence ?

Or perhaps the average asian or farang tourist can tell the difference, between patriots protesting a 'silent coup', and patriots protesting undemocratic constitutional changes ?

The powers that be have visited this upon themselves and the root of it goes way back beyond the last 6 months of problems. The reds (UDD) aren't right, but the neither were the yellows (PAD).

The rule of law has been flouted, so unless it is handed out equally the reds will continue to protest probably violently. They will get arrested which will further increase the activities of the reds whilst the yellows would appear to be getting off scot-free.

Many people warned that allowing apparently preferential treatment of the yellows would result in this. They were poo-poo'd that this is Thailand, it is different.

The meddling and failure of the whole system is to blame for Thailand's being in the public eye for the wrong reasons. Amnesty for all or arrest and court cases for all is the only way that this can ever be resolved.

Back to tourism, the high spending families and 5 star hotel guests and Asian golfers, not single backpackers and travellers will I believe stay away from Thailand at least for this and next year. Who needs the hassle when the attractions of hotels and sea fronts and golf courses can be replicated elsewhere very easily?

[sunreader]

Ooh I better cancel my holiday booking to Thailand because they might shut the airport for a few days and I'll have to stay on the beach a bit longer.

Maybe I should choose somewhere less dangerous like Zimbabwe.

~runs to cancel holiday, not~

[plachon]

'Thai at Heart'said, in post #13:

"In the last week I know of 10 relatives and friends of family who have returned from work in Pattaya area. All were employed in hotels either as reception or waitresses/waiter. "

That is exactly what was predicted recently by a government official, and part of the the possibility that I wrote about in my MA thesis a couple of years ago----Western recession resulting in the contraction of employment in tourism and manufacture-for-export in Thailand.

It is to 'their' villages that people will look when employment in urban areas contracts. And, just as the arising of those employment opportunities caused rural-to-urban migration, so their contraction will cause urban-to-rural flow.

However, it is possible to be optimistic.

Over the past forty years, that rural-to-urban migration has done a lot of social harm to the villages (disrupted families, with kids being brougt up in the absence of their parents, and so on) and it has done social harm in urban areas, too (rising use of cheap brothels causing spread of AIDs, and so on).

It is possible that the reversal of that migration may bring about much reversal of that social harm.Looking ahead over the next forty years, it is possible to constuct a scenario of the Bangkok poulation reducing at an average of 3% per annum, (though it will come in lurches (like the one that 'Thai at Heart' is reporting), rather than smoothly), and so reducing from the present 10 million to 5 million by 2030 and to 3 million before 2050.

I call it "A smaller and more beautiful Bangkok, with bigger and better Ban Nork".

The interesting thing to watch will be the second wave of urban-to-rural migration.

This first wave will be largely composed of lower-paid workers who have not been gone from their villages for long and who will fit back in relatively smoothly.

But the second wave will contain a lot of middle-class people, looking to construct middle-class lifestyles in the rural areas. I can't foresee them being willing to leave their savings, or their political clout, behind in Bangkok.

We will live in interesting times. (And, as that old Chinese saying points out, it is up to us how we respond to changing times---with spirit, or depression).

Yes very nice for the semi-skilled and unskilled workers and other riff raff to head off back to the rice paddies where they will all be happy eating insects and drinking mekong with the family again. You must be joking. Within 2 years Thailand will be another Cambodia and all hel_l will break loose as the disenfranchised Isaan poor are led to a "workers revolution" against the ruling urban elite. At least with Thaksin you knew that his generosity towards the North was a means to keep them placated. God help the Hi-So set and the soft middle class who have gotten fat on the sweat of the families in the paddy fields when they get a true leader from amongst them. There are a number of potential candidates. Just a matter now of seeing who it will be and then the carnage will begin in earnest.

Hagler, I think you have it about right! Since the government and the military has seen fit to not take any action against the PAD criminals, then it shows that this type of behavior will not only be tolerated without any punishment but it even looks as though it will be encouraged in the future and the rest of the world knows this and will stay away. Should unemployment get high enough and those Issanites leave BKK and Chonburi in droves and head back home, then the seeds of revolution will be sown. The people of Issan and those of the northern provinces will rise up and invoke the spirit of Ya Mo and Taksin the Great, and just as those two great warriors defeated the Burmese invaders, so too will their decendants march upon BKK and defeat the Chinese-Thai elite who have raped and defiled their country. It doesn't have to come to this, if only the military stepped up to the plate and crushed the protests and then the courts convicted and imprisoned the leaders of the PAD and siezed all their assets, then the world would at least know that Thailand was a country of laws that are taken seriously and not a lawless nation headed back into the third world. Who knows, perhaps this is a cyclical thing and the spirit of Lady Mo and Taksin the Great are destined to return and cleanse the country

Are you aware that Ya Mo is a legendary character with about as much historical fact surrounding her as an Old Testament minor player? Most of the "facts" attributed to her legend were gleaned from a 1960s nation-building propaganda film, which helped to justify Thailand (Siam's) claim over Isaan during a period of Lao ethnic-identity resurgence. The statue in Khorat that everyone pays tribute to was constructed after that film, Before that no-one gave a hoot about Ya Mo as they'd mostly never heard her name. And by the way, she is attributed with defeating the Lao army, not Burmese as you insinuate.

[animatic]

The facts of this GLOBAL recession is that Thailand is not now, on the top of any Tourist destinations. Certainly not from the Countries that have in the past fuelled the Tourist Industry.

Those ex-pats who have a GB pension will soon notice the loss of a up to a third in their benefit.

It's a common misconception by many Farang to think that Thailand has been (or IS) fueled by Western tourists.

More than 60% of tourism to Thailand comes from East and South Asian countries.

But...I've always said that the number of 13/14 million is a kind of uprated number as a few million "tourists" come from neighboring countries like Malaysia (1,5 Million !).

It is to be doubted if these numbers from neighboring countries are real tourists in the sense like we, Farang, consider tourists, tourists.

BUT, it could very well be that tourism will suffer a great deal from the recent political turmoil; the drop in tourism (due to the political turmoil) will be for the greater part from Asia and a lesser part from Western countries.

It's hard to tell whether the drop in tourism will be for the larger part because of political problems rather than the economical crisis.

LaoPo

It will likely be a combination.

The people at distance will shy from the obnoxious airlines fees.

Certainly fir this season. In the spring when prices taper back down should be better, IF,

their own national economies give them hope of having a job when they return from vacation.

Surely the airport takeover will have turned a few minds off,

but the bottom line is not some memory of some protests,

but what damage it does to your families nest egg if you

pick Pattaya over Brighton beach? One's cooler,

but the other might keep you eating longer...

Edited December 19, 2008 by animatic

[animatic]

I think its wrong to blame everything on the PAD, the world recession going on is going to hurt discretionary spending and reduce tourists. The PAD though, have clearly compounded the problem.

It will be interesting to see how similar destinations, like Bali, decline in tourist visitors in the next few months.

On the other hand, hopefully home prices in Phuket will fall back in line with where they should be, instead of inflated from all the UK people cashing in on the housing ladder and paying ridiculous sums for homes near the beach.

It is politically convenient to blame everything on PAD,

and then tie them closer to the Dems, to try and drag them down,

and when it all goes bad from a perfect storm of externally generated factors,

blame it ALL on the Bangkok Elites and start an Issan Peoples Revolution,

to bring back their divine savior King Thaksin the Second.

There are no DOUBTS some thinking along these lines in all seriousness.

What we need to see is comparative figures from the other regional vacation hotspots,

and compare apples to apples.

Anecdotally;

I had a hard time getting a seat on Bangkok air today,

and lots of people were coming down here.

Suvarnabuhmi seemed pretty busy, and perfectly clean.

Not a SIGN of any disturbances. Go figure.

Edited December 19, 2008 by animatic

[Maverell]

Of course there will be an exodus of people from the tourist areas back to Isaan etc. as they lose their jobs.

I have a funny feeling that these people will not be as readily accepted back in their villages as people think. They have been a major bread winner for their families, and all of a sudden its gone, not just one or two families but hundreds and hundreds, if not thousands.

We are talking about a lot of money not going to the villages next year, they will not like it.

[animatic]

The sprawling Tongsai Bay resort, where guests are shuttled around in golf carts, has reduced hours for staff and even installed lower-wattage light bulbs to reduce electricity bills to cut costs amid the slowdown, said assistant manager Chonlatee Nakamadee.

Tongsai Bay (at least on our visits) can be awfully quiet even when things are good.

I don't think I've ever been where it was even half full in "high" season.

I have a similar rembrance of the place, pretty dead,

2-3 tables filled during 2 hour dinner period on several weekend evenings.

I think the higher end places ran their prices up beyond the current economic realities, and left them there,

and have been slow in adjusting rates to realities. Lowing rates seems to be akin to losing face....

rather than a practical business decision.

[aromsia]

I think the reduced two-week visas by land were introduced to 'encourage' tourists to return to Suvarnabhumi to get their full month. Thailand loses a lot of money in taxes - not to mention the AOT and THAI companies. Oh and don't forget King Power and all those people who get paid off for the monopolies granted to some of these players.

I'll bet the two-week land visa is scrubbed once the TAT and AOT are confident that the majority are tourists arriving by air again. So probably a temprorary measure. But it's a good motivation for the visa runners to get legal too. Maybe Thailand kills two birds with one stone?

An Edit to add that last night I was in the Sukhumvit area and the place was really, really dead at what should be the absoulte height of the tourist season. That little stretch between Soi 3 and 5 where all the freelance hookers stand was overflowing with the girls (and 'boys') - I've never seen so many there...maybe they are leaving the other areas that are even deader to come to main street? However they were having much luck there either.. only a few Scandinavian, British and Arab families with pushchairs/strollers were on the street walking by them. Usually you need to squeeze by people there. But on that Friday night, there was lots of room to walk...and not much biz for the girls/katooeys.

Same-Same at Central Dept Store at Sala Daeng. Depressingly quiet..but hey - no crowds!

Anyway, as for the foreigners and ex-pat business people I've seen cheering on that PAD group on this and other websites - what goes around comes around I guess. How many of them are still cheering now?

Edited December 20, 2008 by aromsia

[Pesche]

It's always very easy to criticize...

In my humble opinion, all this effervescence and turmoil, the lost of tourists IS NOT ONLY caused by the political confusion and paradoxes...

The squatting of Suvarnabhumi Airport was indeed the drop which made overflow the barrel...

While Thailand was already week and "loosing face" through the media because of its lack of "Democratic Correctness" and the disagreeable "Shinawatra Saga", we forget the consequences from the global economy AND the change in Trends.

About 2 weeks ago the great NIKON (camera builder) terminated the production in Thailand of parts for its products forcing so 1700 people to loose their job.

Many other companies reduced and are reducing if not stopping also production causing more unemployment.

While the western mentality was shaken by this global crisis, the government here was smiling saying proudly that there was no danger in the Asian market...

At Bill Clinton's times, if you remember, when he said to the honorable PM Chuan Leekpai to "think" globalization: Khun Chuan humbly smiled saying that Thailand was not ready for "Globalization".

He is still right.

As we see, Thailand is too much absorbed by it's internal affairs, lack of guidance, lack of preventive actions...

The poor get poorer while the wealthy one still enjoys the good life.

Sadness, resignation, anger are the results fueling so general confusion...

Tolerance changed to ignorance (I mean here to ignore problems!) - "The so well known "may-mee panhaa" and "djai yen-yen" thinking.

But nowadays it is no more possible - specially for the rural majority - to tolerate and accept that the ones earning the bread return home jobless and empty handed...

Additionally the trends:

While Thailand boomed 1988-1996 as a new exotic and charming destination, it has dropped now to position 20 in the top destinations worldwide... (http://www.world-tourism.org/facts/eng/pdf/indicators/Top25_ita.pdf)

The trendy destinations HAVE changed! We re-discover Europe, we go the Dominicans, Cuba and other new places...

The "weneverhaveenough" mentality of the TAT who always proudly pushes the number of arrivals and also ALWAYS finds a good excuse to retouch the stats because of "blah-blah", increases Promotions instead of leading with standards of professionalism and quality.

i.e. more SPAs, more luxury BUT still too little employees speak proper English...

The construction euphoria (example Patthaya) is still on while 1000s of houses and villas are waiting to be sold since years...

It seams that everybody "ignores" the facts while expanding like there is no tomorrow.

It is a snowball becoming an avalanche and, I'm afraid, that this is only the beginning...

I do hope that the new government will find the way and have the force and endurance to stabilize and improve as the long term consequences could be fatal for such a great and important Nation.

I firmly believe that that Thailand will return to be "The Land Of Smiles" !

Don't paint the devil on the wall...

Think and act positive!

[VegasVic]

'Thai at Heart'said, in post #13:

"In the last week I know of 10 relatives and friends of family who have returned from work in Pattaya area. All were employed in hotels either as reception or waitresses/waiter. "

That is exactly what was predicted recently by a government official, and part of the the possibility that I wrote about in my MA thesis a couple of years ago----Western recession resulting in the contraction of employment in tourism and manufacture-for-export in Thailand.

It is to 'their' villages that people will look when employment in urban areas contracts. And, just as the arising of those employment opportunities caused rural-to-urban migration, so their contraction will cause urban-to-rural flow.

However, it is possible to be optimistic.

Over the past forty years, that rural-to-urban migration has done a lot of social harm to the villages (disrupted families, with kids being brougt up in the absence of their parents, and so on) and it has done social harm in urban areas, too (rising use of cheap brothels causing spread of AIDs, and so on).

It is possible that the reversal of that migration may bring about much reversal of that social harm.Looking ahead over the next forty years, it is possible to constuct a scenario of the Bangkok poulation reducing at an average of 3% per annum, (though it will come in lurches (like the one that 'Thai at Heart' is reporting), rather than smoothly), and so reducing from the present 10 million to 5 million by 2030 and to 3 million before 2050.

I call it "A smaller and more beautiful Bangkok, with bigger and better Ban Nork".

The interesting thing to watch will be the second wave of urban-to-rural migration.

This first wave will be largely composed of lower-paid workers who have not been gone from their villages for long and who will fit back in relatively smoothly.

But the second wave will contain a lot of middle-class people, looking to construct middle-class lifestyles in the rural areas. I can't foresee them being willing to leave their savings, or their political clout, behind in Bangkok.

We will live in interesting times. (And, as that old Chinese saying points out, it is up to us how we respond to changing times---with spirit, or depression).

Yes very nice for the semi-skilled and unskilled workers and other riff raff to head off back to the rice paddies where they will all be happy eating insects and drinking mekong with the family again. You must be joking. Within 2 years Thailand will be another Cambodia and all hel_l will break loose as the disenfranchised Isaan poor are led to a "workers revolution" against the ruling urban elite. At least with Thaksin you knew that his generosity towards the North was a means to keep them placated. God help the Hi-So set and the soft middle class who have gotten fat on the sweat of the families in the paddy fields when they get a true leader from amongst them. There are a number of potential candidates. Just a matter now of seeing who it will be and then the carnage will begin in earnest.

Hagler, I think you have it about right! Since the government and the military has seen fit to not take any action against the PAD criminals, then it shows that this type of behavior will not only be tolerated without any punishment but it even looks as though it will be encouraged in the future and the rest of the world knows this and will stay away. Should unemployment get high enough and those Issanites leave BKK and Chonburi in droves and head back home, then the seeds of revolution will be sown. The people of Issan and those of the northern provinces will rise up and invoke the spirit of Ya Mo and Taksin the Great, and just as those two great warriors defeated the Burmese invaders, so too will their decendants march upon BKK and defeat the Chinese-Thai elite who have raped and defiled their country. It doesn't have to come to this, if only the military stepped up to the plate and crushed the protests and then the courts convicted and imprisoned the leaders of the PAD and siezed all their assets, then the world would at least know that Thailand was a country of laws that are taken seriously and not a lawless nation headed back into the third world. Who knows, perhaps this is a cyclical thing and the spirit of Lady Mo and Taksin the Great are destined to return and cleanse the country

Are you aware that Ya Mo is a legendary character with about as much historical fact surrounding her as an Old Testament minor player? Most of the "facts" attributed to her legend were gleaned from a 1960s nation-building propaganda film, which helped to justify Thailand (Siam's) claim over Isaan during a period of Lao ethnic-identity resurgence. The statue in Khorat that everyone pays tribute to was constructed after that film, Before that no-one gave a hoot about Ya Mo as they'd mostly never heard her name. And by the way, she is attributed with defeating the Lao army, not Burmese as you insinuate.

Plachon, I am indeed aware that Ya Mo is attributed to defeating the Lao army (not the Burmese), however when making my post I didn't feel the need to differentiate between Taksin the great defeating the Burmese and Ya Mo defeating the Lao, it just didn't seem to be germain to the point that I was making at hte time Since you seem to be the kind to pick nits, then perhaps I should educate you a little as well my friend There has been a monument to Ya Mo in central Korat city since the mid 1930's (not the 1960's as you seem to infer) and there have been monuments to Ya Mo in the countryside since the 1800's! Ya Mo (Suranaree) was very much a real person, although the stories about her I am certain have been greatly embelished over the past 200 years. She was more of a Mahta Hari type than the warrior pricess that she so often gets potrayed as, but to compare her to some fictional biblical character of 2500 years ago shows your lack of objectivity on this subject. I am not certain why you would have this bias against Lady Mo, unless perhaps you are of Laotian ancestry and are embarrased that a woman from Korat played a key role in the defeat of the Lao Army 200 years ago

[barky]

To paint my positive picture amongst some of the melancholy discussion and remarks. I'm personally glad to see a vast drop in tourist numbers for many reasons such as , but not limited to: fewer rude and agressive touts and hawkers on the streets, fewer vendors cluttering the footpaths, shop and service staff more friendly and attentive, in some places, cheaper prices, less competition for hotel accommodation and restaurants, far fewer bodies on the beach , consequently, less horses galloping along Hua Hin beach, fewer hillbillies from up north laying around badmouthing the westeners as they walk past, and, for those who are interested, less competition for the prostitutes in the bars, more vacant seats on the the B.T.S. etc. etc.

For those expats that need tourists for their livelihood, my sympathies. But, personally, the less tourists, the better.

Edited December 20, 2008 by barky

[jeffer]

An Edit to add that last night I was in the Sukhumvit area and the place was really, really dead at what should be the absoulte height of the tourist season. That little stretch between Soi 3 and 5 where all the freelance hookers stand was overflowing with the girls (and 'boys') - I've never seen so many there...maybe they are leaving the other areas that are even deader to come to main street?

So, I'm not the only person who noticed the same thing between Soi 3 and Soi 5. I walked along there earlier in the week and wondered what was going on, overflowing is no exaggeration.

[h90]

I think the reduced two-week visas by land were introduced to 'encourage' tourists to return to Suvarnabhumi to get their full month. Thailand loses a lot of money in taxes - not to mention the AOT and THAI companies. Oh and don't forget King Power and all those people who get paid off for the monopolies granted to some of these players.

I'll bet the two-week land visa is scrubbed once the TAT and AOT are confident that the majority are tourists arriving by air again. So probably a temprorary measure. But it's a good motivation for the visa runners to get legal too. Maybe Thailand kills two birds with one stone?

An Edit to add that last night I was in the Sukhumvit area and the place was really, really dead at what should be the absoulte height of the tourist season. That little stretch between Soi 3 and 5 where all the freelance hookers stand was overflowing with the girls (and 'boys') - I've never seen so many there...maybe they are leaving the other areas that are even deader to come to main street? However they were having much luck there either.. only a few Scandinavian, British and Arab families with pushchairs/strollers were on the street walking by them. Usually you need to squeeze by people there. But on that Friday night, there was lots of room to walk...and not much biz for the girls/katooeys.

Same-Same at Central Dept Store at Sala Daeng. Depressingly quiet..but hey - no crowds!

Anyway, as for the foreigners and ex-pat business people I've seen cheering on that PAD group on this and other websites - what goes around comes around I guess. How many of them are still cheering now?

Well that 14 day from the land is a complete stupid thing. My parents had the idea:

Visit me a few days

go to Ankor Wat

Come back and than make some holidays at maybe Koh Samui and than somewhere else at a bit more than 14 days.

that would be impossible by now, beside that people get the feeling "if they don't want us we go somewhere else".

That immigration mess should be fixed a long time. That visa-run thing is complete non-sense.

[jeffer]

Ooh I better cancel my holiday booking to Thailand because they might shut the airport for a few days and I'll have to stay on the beach a bit longer.

Maybe I should choose somewhere less dangerous like Zimbabwe.

~runs to cancel holiday, not~

I know some people who cancelled their annual holiday to Thailand and will be going to Malaysia instead. They run a small family business and can't afford being stranded in Thailand. Spending a few extra unplanned days in Thailand is not something they are prepared to risk. Add to this reports from unhappy tourists in their local paper so they decided to give Thailand a miss this time.

Edited December 20, 2008 by jeffer

[astral]

3 million tourists disappear during December-March

BANGKOK: -- Tourism Council of Thailand (TCT) expected the missing of 3 million tourists during December and March,

Won't their families be worried if they go missing.

Come on Nation.

Please find people who can write in grammatically correct English.

[Chang_paarp]

3 million tourists disappear during December-March

BANGKOK: -- Tourism Council of Thailand (TCT) expected the missing of 3 million tourists during December and March,

Won't their families be worried if they go missing.

Come in Nation.

Please find people who can write in grammatically correct English.

Maybe the Nation is going to have a competition, sponsored by TAT, to see if their readers can find them.

[sunreader]

Ooh I better cancel my holiday booking to Thailand because they might shut the airport for a few days and I'll have to stay on the beach a bit longer.

Maybe I should choose somewhere less dangerous like Zimbabwe.

~runs to cancel holiday, not~

I know some people who cancelled their annual holiday to Thailand and will be going to Malaysia instead. They run a small family business and can't afford being stranded in Thailand. Spending a few extra unplanned days in Thailand is not something they are prepared to risk. Add to this reports from unhappy tourists in their local paper so they decided to give Thailand a miss this time.

If someone can't risk being away from their home/business for a few days for fear of bankruptcy then they shouldn't be going on holiday in the first place.