The Sterling (gbp Thread

[chiang mai]

The US dollar is still at a fairly good rate of exchange if changing into Thai bahts.

Are there any financial wizards on here that can suggest ways of changing the £ into $ than into bahts without losing out on bank charges, commissions and other rip offs?

Yours is a worry some post I'm afraid. If you convert £1 into THB you will get around 53 THB. If you convert £1 into USD you will get around 1.53 USD - take that USD and convert it to THB at the current rate of about 34 THB per Dollar and you will get, um, 53 THB. You therefore do not need to convert GBP to USD and then to THB because there is no real benefit. OK?

[chiang mai]

My view on this is that by the time I retire, in perhaps another five or so years, the markets will have settled and what ever the exchange rate is I will have accepted that as the norm. Looking back to my first spell in Thailand when the Bht/£ rate was around Bht35~38/£ I'm reminded just how soon people can get used to a change in exchange rates.

My retirement plan is based on being able to afford a comfortable retirement in the UK/Italy, it is not based on being able to afford to retire in Thailand.

In the meantime, I don't plan on moving any money out of the UK, we have property in the UK and Italy, so something of a hedge if we decided to sell either and our property in Thailand is payed-up, so no major spends due.

With the currency fluctuations in mind I will probably negotiate a two currency deal for my next assignment so as to even my costs. Other than that I've made my plan, I'm going to work the plan and I'm not get caught out by the lure of a cheap retirement.

I know of many expats in Thailand Guesthouse who have retired here because they want to be here, not because it is inexpensive, although granted that may be something that adds yet another tick in the retire in Thailand box. I know of someone who is very close to me who can afford to retire in any number of countries but chooses to live here, me.

But this thread is not about whether a person should or should not retire here, nor is it about whether the UK, Italy, Thailand or timbuktoo is the better place to retire. The thread is about how British expats preserve their wealth and/or income in the current financial crisis.

[neil324]

I was considering a 12 month trip, but with the way things are and expected to stay that has been reduced to 3 months. Surely it must be near bottom now for Sterling although cant see any upward movement untill things in Thailand start to come out in the wash.

Near bottom?

Not while Brown is intent on zero interest rates and then, wait for this to be on everybody's lips "quantitative easing". A nice and unalarming way of saying "let the printing press rip", which basically means he can produce as much paper as he wants with the words, "i promise to pay the bearer"....another piece of paper, what a joke.

This has all gone insane because he is desperate to win the next election, and is prepared to shaft us all heavily up the Khyber to do so.

I don't know what you expect to see come out of the wash in Thailand. The average Thai is not in debt to anywhere near the level of the British (taking into account the difference in salary levels), the Thai government does not have close to the liabilities of unemployment benefit, National pensions, State pensions and foreign debt that the UK has. And then add in the trillion or so of even more debt in propping up the banks. And due to the weather, the abundance of crops and fruit it is impossible for Thailand to starve.

Nope, I think that Thailand is well positioned to weather this storm.

What i meant was when Thailand falls into recession and all the bullshit that comes with it.....

[russianrobert]

The sooner the GBP becomes a joke the better. The government has said last week they will not support the pound. They know they can't. Remember 1993 and black Wednesday when Soros broke the pound? They wont make the same mistake again.

Britain at that time was in a severe recession (sounds familiar?). The begining of the recovery was the day the pound tanked and the government could finaly lower interest rates. We are in the same scenario now. Very low interest rates and a very low pound make the UK very competitive.

If you are holding sterling stick with it (what are your options anyway?). It might look like a nightmare scenairo but i think things will turn around fairly quickly if the market is allowed to due it's business.

[sassienie]

The US dollar is still at a fairly good rate of exchange if changing into Thai bahts.

Are there any financial wizards on here that can suggest ways of changing the £ into $ than into bahts without losing out on bank charges, commissions and other rip offs?

Yours is a worry some post I'm afraid. If you convert £1 into THB you will get around 53 THB. If you convert £1 into USD you will get around 1.53 USD - take that USD and convert it to THB at the current rate of about 34 THB per Dollar and you will get, um, 53 THB. You therefore do not need to convert GBP to USD and then to THB because there is no real benefit. OK?

Yes you are right, I goofed on this one.

Sometime ago I did some exchange rate calculations and I came to a different conclusion, but things have changed and updated since than.

Back in 2003 I came to live permanantly in Thailand and brought over enough savings to last a good few years in the event of crisis like these.

But as I am not bringing any sterling over from the UK at the moment because of the crap bank rates and using up funds here. Of course that is less interest per quarter as my capital decreases that normally compensates for the inflationary cost of living rises per month.

So at this present time, even those that financially prepared themselves for long stay in Thailand are now beginning to feel the pinch. A no win situation.

Could this be a ploy by the UK government to piss everyone off and fast track the country into the Euro?

So where are all the financial whizz kids?

Edited December 18, 2008 by sassienie

[Super Hans]

I think it was John Cleese who said the most depressing thing about living in Britain is nobody ever thinks the country is going to improve.

[haybilly]

My view on this is that by the time I retire, in perhaps another five or so years, the markets will have settled and what ever the exchange rate is I will have accepted that as the norm. Looking back to my first spell in Thailand when the Bht/£ rate was around Bht35~38/£ I'm reminded just how soon people can get used to a change in exchange rates.

My retirement plan is based on being able to afford a comfortable retirement in the UK/Italy, it is not based on being able to afford to retire in Thailand.

In the meantime, I don't plan on moving any money out of the UK, we have property in the UK and Italy, so something of a hedge if we decided to sell either and our property in Thailand is payed-up, so no major spends due.

With the currency fluctuations in mind I will probably negotiate a two currency deal for my next assignment so as to even my costs. Other than that I've made my plan, I'm going to work the plan and I'm not get caught out by the lure of a cheap retirement.

I know of many expats in Thailand Guesthouse who have retired here because they want to be here, not because it is inexpensive, although granted that may be something that adds yet another tick in the retire in Thailand box. I know of someone who is very close to me who can afford to retire in any number of countries but chooses to live here, me.

But this thread is not about whether a person should or should not retire here, nor is it about whether the UK, Italy, Thailand or timbuktoo is the better place to retire. The thread is about how British expats preserve their wealth and/or income in the current financial crisis.

I, too, thought I could detect a hint of smugness in GH's post--however, anyone who is fortunate enough to be still working, and on Saudi salaries, can afford to be, I suppose.

Incidentally, I too am concerned/affected about/by the sterling ex-rate and it has made a hole in many of my calculations--but, hey-ho could be worse--a whole bunch of people in UK are much, much worse off.

Edited December 18, 2008 by haybilly

[Marvo]

Glad to see you back from the beach chiang mai .

As a Brit, I've been avidly following the other GBP related threads for the last couple of months, soaking up as many opinions as I can, without actually voicing too many of my own. I think the time has now come to join in the "fun" a little more.

I, like a few others, have been wondering about putting cash into gold/US$/euro etc. but have been frozen in the beams of global meltdown, so to speak, and didn't actually commit the time to learning and actioning these more radical alternative hedging/investing plans.

I have, a couple of months ago when all the trouble started brewing, put some GBP away for a year at 7% and another lump away for 3 years at 6.25% (the day after the last rate cut announcement).

The balance, which I don't know what to do with in the short term and is now attracting about 2%, is held in readiness (in GBP) for paying for and building my house (in Thailand). I've made the decission now to carry on renting for a while and not build for however long it takes for the pound to recover against the Baht, be it 1,2,3,4 years. I just can't justify to myself exchanging that much cash and locking it into Baht at one third less than if I had done it a year ago. I also haven't yet come to terms with the reality of now only being able to build two thirds of a house.

I'm now anoyed with myself for not forseeing my decision to delay the build and not ptucking the cash away for 3 years at 6.25%.

I need to appreciate that liquid lump by one third before I can build my house and finally settle comfortably in LOS.

On another note, I still would like to learn the currency trading game as I'm very curious about it. How much I'll have to lose to satisfy my "curiosity" I'm not sure though. The way I understand it is that, to achieve a rise, your money is best off being in a crap currency that is at a stupid low and waiting for it to increase. Well, I'm in GBP right now, but can it go any lower? I think it can, but have I got the bottle to switch currencies after GBP has had such a monumentus fall against the dollar over the last couple of months and against the euro over the last week?

Maybe I'll just do what I was doing a month ago, stay sitting on my hands saying "it's too late now, GBP can't get any worse than this".

Ho hum.

[chiang mai]

Its often said on here that no one is clever enough to predict exchange rates accurately. Sometimes we can see trends and go with the flow but unexpected events usually crop up and make fools of us.

The worst of the banking crisis may be over but there are still people out there saying that there is much, much more bad news to emerge and that the very existence of some banks is threatened.

Governments are doing their best to mitigate the crisis but the record shows that most government action fails to achieve its objectives. Indeed much government effort and legislation is subjected to the law of unintended consequences and actually has the opposite effect of what was intended.

So if you believe that Gordon Brown really can save the world then you can relax and wait and see. If you don't believe his rhetoric then action is needed.

A mixture of asset classes such as foreign currency deposits, offshore banks, gold (not for me thanks), bonds and maybe even index trackers or direct share purchases can all be mixed and matched to suit your risk appetite. Hopefully, a spread of assets will give a better result than risking all in one class.

But. History shows that when a democratically elected politician knows that taxes need to be raised to pay for endless government expenditure, the usual response is to borrow more not impose higher taxes. The other proven method of hiding tax increases is to allow the currency to debase so that the debt reduces in real terms. In other words create inflation which transfers wealth from the lender to the borrower who is repaying his loan in a less valuable currency. This silent stealth tax of inflation is much preferred by Politicians.

My feeling is that despite the emphasis on deflation recently, there will be massive inflation before too long to mop up all the cash that has been thrown at the banks and other targets to keep the economy functioning. 'Too big and important to fail' as they have claimed.

So what to do? One part of a strategy is to buy the maximum permitted amount of National Savings and Investments Index Linked Certificates. At any one time you can purchase 15000 UKP of 3 year term and another 15K of 5 year term.

As each new tranche is released you can buy another 30k without limit.

They are guaranteed to match the rise in the RPI (not CPI) and pay 1% interest on top. So you are guaranteed to beat inflation as measured by RPI by 1%. The next issue will have a different interest rate which is announced when launched.

AT present with the prospect of deflation the Certificates don't have a great appeal. But only three months ago the UK treasury was fighting the threat of INflation and not concerned about DEflation. Things change fast, By buying now you can top up with each issue and be protected to the extent of your total holding should we experience another rate of 25% last seen in 1975 or Nigel Lawson's 11% in 1990. The terms are very soft and you can sell at any time although indexing and interest is only added after you have held them for one year.

None of this helps protect you against exchange rate fluctuations but at least you will be able to return to UK with your savings intact. If you think that there will never be another 25% annual inflation then did you think you would ever see 0% bank rates? Its worth considering.

That sounds like a good idea, I had looked at them before but concluded it wasn't desperation time yet, maybe I should look again! It'll be interesting to see if the UK government will sell them to non-resident ex pats.

[chiang mai]

I think it was John Cleese who said the most depressing thing about living in Britain is nobody ever thinks the country is going to improve.

And he was right Hans, it doesn't, sadly it only gets worse. I've been an ex pat for most of my life because of my work, at the back of my mind however has always been the thought that one day I might go and live there, probably when I am in my final years. But every time I look at the place I find more and more reason why I can't or shouldn't do that. It used to be that the weather was the general gripe, then it was the quality of the food. After a while it became high taxation followed by the high cost of real estate. Now it's all of those things plus it seems unsafe to walk down the street anymore for fear of being knifed or arrested for political incorrectness. I just don't know how "we've" managed to screw it all up so badly.

[chiang mai]

Glad to see you back from the beach chiang mai .

As a Brit, I've been avidly following the other GBP related threads for the last couple of months, soaking up as many opinions as I can, without actually voicing too many of my own. I think the time has now come to join in the "fun" a little more.

I think that joining in these threads and debates help you to form a view on what you can or should do, it certainly has for me.

I, like a few others, have been wondering about putting cash into gold/US$/euro etc. but have been frozen in the beams of global meltdown, so to speak, and didn't actually commit the time to learning and actioning these more radical alternative hedging/investing plans.

I have, a couple of months ago when all the trouble started brewing, put some GBP away for a year at 7% and another lump away for 3 years at 6.25% (the day after the last rate cut announcement).

The balance, which I don't know what to do with in the short term and is now attracting about 2%, is held in readiness (in GBP) for paying for and building my house (in Thailand). I've made the decission now to carry on renting for a while and not build for however long it takes for the pound to recover against the Baht, be it 1,2,3,4 years. I just can't justify to myself exchanging that much cash and locking it into Baht at one third less than if I had done it a year ago. I also haven't yet come to terms with the reality of now only being able to build two thirds of a house.

Take a look at the Nationwide International Tracker account in the IOM for the spare Pounds that you have, I don't know how long their 5.75% will hold good for but it's certainly a good deal right now and is likely to remain higher than most other deposits - no lock in involved.

I'm now anoyed with myself for not forseeing my decision to delay the build and not ptucking the cash away for 3 years at 6.25%.

Don't be, most of us did something similar. Having said that, if the current path matures we might just find that's a blessing in disguise. Rates hit zero and deflation sets in so the government prints money which causes high inflation, the cure for that is high interest rates! I would be highly upset if rates were 12% and I was locked in at 5% for the next two years.

I need to appreciate that liquid lump by one third before I can build my house and finally settle comfortably in LOS.

On another note, I still would like to learn the currency trading game as I'm very curious about it. How much I'll have to lose to satisfy my "curiosity" I'm not sure though. The way I understand it is that, to achieve a rise, your money is best off being in a crap currency that is at a stupid low and waiting for it to increase. Well, I'm in GBP right now, but can it go any lower? I think it can, but have I got the bottle to switch currencies after GBP has had such a monumentus fall against the dollar over the last couple of months and against the euro over the last week?

LRB was absolutely right about that, you have to lose some money trading first before you begin to focus. I had a riotous run with GBP/USD three months ago and everyday I made money without trying, didn't even think about what I was doing. At one point the rates turned and I thought I was going to lose big time so I got out, rebought and then got out again. All in all I lost about £700 over three days, all my own stupid fault. I made the loss back again when the downwards trend continued but losing that £700 made me pay a lot more attention to things.

Maybe I'll just do what I was doing a month ago, stay sitting on my hands saying "it's too late now, GBP can't get any worse than this".

Ho hum.

[Mosha]

I have followed some of the OP's advice from a few days ago. I have transferred telegraphically {at 53.88} enough Thai Baht for all living expenses in Thailand for the whole of 2009.

I have also arranged for a basket of three currencies YEN/US$/CHF to be held in my main offshore Isle of Man bank account. My main current account pays just 0.1% so I only hold enough for emergencies and direct debits for the year 2009.

I bought a bit of gold here in Thailand (But that was only a 10 baht bar).

The main action, has been to place ALL of my GBP offshore savings into one account BBI Isle of Man: It currently pays 4% interest on a 2% base rate (eaccess2 account).

So during 2009, I shall just sit back and hope for the best.......

You want to be careful about following any advice I give, I don't know what I'm doing, if I did I wouldn't be making posts like these to try and figure out what you're doing so I can copy your idea's! Seriously though, I think that was probably the right thing to do, it's difficult enough to work out a longer term strategy, especially when you are worried about not having enough Baht for the next three months. Having the hedge currencies is also a sound idea although you may want to keep an eye on what they are doing over the course of the year and be prepared to change as needed.

The trouble with rubber is, the price is following the oil price. The American major car companies are shutting down for a long long christmas/new year break. Even the Japanese motor car manufacturers are not immune. Honda pulling out of F1, is just a symptom of their troubles. If you are going into farming in the south where we get a bit of rain. Go for palm is an option to consider. As to the original question, I am sitting tight, and hope for an election, and get rid of those clowns. They just don't do financial crisis.

[chiang mai]

I have followed some of the OP's advice from a few days ago. I have transferred telegraphically {at 53.88} enough Thai Baht for all living expenses in Thailand for the whole of 2009.

I have also arranged for a basket of three currencies YEN/US$/CHF to be held in my main offshore Isle of Man bank account. My main current account pays just 0.1% so I only hold enough for emergencies and direct debits for the year 2009.

I bought a bit of gold here in Thailand (But that was only a 10 baht bar).

The main action, has been to place ALL of my GBP offshore savings into one account BBI Isle of Man: It currently pays 4% interest on a 2% base rate (eaccess2 account).

So during 2009, I shall just sit back and hope for the best.......

You want to be careful about following any advice I give, I don't know what I'm doing, if I did I wouldn't be making posts like these to try and figure out what you're doing so I can copy your idea's! Seriously though, I think that was probably the right thing to do, it's difficult enough to work out a longer term strategy, especially when you are worried about not having enough Baht for the next three months. Having the hedge currencies is also a sound idea although you may want to keep an eye on what they are doing over the course of the year and be prepared to change as needed.

The trouble with rubber is, the price is following the oil price. The American major car companies are shutting down for a long long christmas/new year break. Even the Japanese motor car manufacturers are not immune. Honda pulling out of F1, is just a symptom of their troubles. If you are going into farming in the south where we get a bit of rain. Go for palm is an option to consider. As to the original question, I am sitting tight, and hope for an election, and get rid of those clowns. They just don't do financial crisis.

If OPEC cuts production enough the price of oil will rise, let's hope the price of rubber follows.

[ArranP]

I'm moving my capital from USD to GBP, on the presumption the USD/GBP will be at approx 1.90 end of 2009, which means if the USD/THB remains at 35, then GBP/THB will be 66.5

I'll probably delay buying any substantial assets until the GBP/THB improves towards the end of 2009, and just withdraw month on month living expenses.

Keep an option open on working maybe 6 months UK/Europe each year, then 6 months back in Thailand.

I'm invested in Tulip Trend fund, its a Managed Futures fund, historically its done well in down-turns, its performance can be seen at www.trend.ky

Also, I'm invested in Brandeaux Dollar Fund, but want to switch to their Student Accomodation Fund Sterling, these funds return approx 7 to 10% per anum, you can pull up the performance of these funds on www.bloomberg.com

After the dollar weakens, and you get more baht for your pound, then I may consider large asset purchases.

Edited December 19, 2008 by ArranP

[chiang mai]

I'm moving my capital from USD to GBP, on the presumption the USD/GBP will be at approx 1.90 end of 2009, which means if the USD/THB remains at 35, then GBP/THB will be 66.5

I'll probably delay buying any substantial assets until the GBP/THB improves towards the end of 2009, and just withdraw month on month living expenses.

Keep an option open on working maybe 6 months UK/Europe each year, then 6 months back in Thailand.

I'm invested in Tulip Trend fund, its a Managed Futures fund, historically its done well in down-turns, its performance can be seen at www.trend.ky

Also, I'm invested in Brandeaux Dollar Fund, but want to switch to their Student Accomodation Fund Sterling, these funds return approx 7 to 10% per anum, you can pull up the performance of these funds on www.bloomberg.com

After the dollar weakens, and you get more baht for your pound, then I may consider large asset purchases.

I agree with your GBP/USD assessment, I moved out of USD completely a few days ago - sounds though like our best strategy is to continue working whilst you can. I turned down six months of work in Oman in June and am kicking myself for it.

[pnustedt]

I must admit that a lot of the present situation doesn't make a lot of sense to me - if the international problem is a lack of liquidity (that's money I think) and lending risks are considered too high then surely the price of that money (that's interest rates) should be high?

I try to guess what the market is gonna do next but I am always prepared to accept that I am more than likely to be wrong.

When I came to Thailand, nearly three years ago, I set up a business here which was capable of supporting myself and my wife's family here, so I now have an income in Thai Baht and don't have to worry about forex trading rates for my everyday expenses.

I have a portfolio overseas, mostly in US$ or US$ linked currencies, but I don't mess around with it much and only use it for discretionary (usually big ticket) spending.

[chiang mai]

I must admit that a lot of the present situation doesn't make a lot of sense to me - if the international problem is a lack of liquidity (that's money I think) and lending risks are considered too high then surely the price of that money (that's interest rates) should be high?

I try to guess what the market is gonna do next but I am always prepared to accept that I am more than likely to be wrong.

When I came to Thailand, nearly three years ago, I set up a business here which was capable of supporting myself and my wife's family here, so I now have an income in Thai Baht and don't have to worry about forex trading rates for my everyday expenses.

I have a portfolio overseas, mostly in US$ or US$ linked currencies, but I don't mess around with it much and only use it for discretionary (usually big ticket) spending.

For those people who already live in Thailand, earning in Thai Baht seems to be the number one method of wealth preservation. I guess it would be great to earn in THB for living expenses and leave your capital overseas in your preferred currency, on deposit until such time as conditions stabilize or become more certain.

[expatgaz]

I've changed 80% of my USD back to GBP.In the long run I feel its the best option.1 year ago everyone was screaming abt 2 USD to the pound now its the other way people are still screaming.

Long term I thing Sterling USD will settle abt 1.70.Thai Baht to USD abt 40,Thai Baht to sterling 66.

Thats my take anyway.

EPG.

[chiang mai]

Before we (I actually) lose track of what we’re trying to achieve here I thought it might be useful to summarize thus far.

It seems that from posting to date, very few British expats are planning to do anything radical about their accumulated savings/wealth.

Most have opted for fixed rate GBP deposits for the next twelve months and then wait and see what the world looks like then. GBP would have to drop by between 4% & 7% over the next year for that to be a bad move, based on the rate of the fix.

Some people have opted to invest in Gold but not in huge amounts and many have bought hedging currencies or instruments. Others might invest in Gold but many people don’t know how to do that.

Having an income in Thai Baht is one of the best solutions to the current problem but failing that, having enough Thai Baht on hand to cover the next twelve months seems essential. Even at this late stage it might be worth watching the peaks and making a transfer when the rate is optimum.

Nobody has been brave enough to suggest investment in equities or real estate so there is hope for the good readers of TV yet!

A few folks who had bought USD have now sold or are going to sell soon and that seems in line with what many market commentators are suggesting about the future of USD – understandably nobody has mentioned changing into Euros given its current high levels.

Nobody has suggested a move into other commodities such as oil but I think that kind of move comes under the heading of investment speculation rather than wealth preservation.

Anybody have an approach different from the above or feel that any part of it is inappropriate?

[haybilly]

I'm moving my capital from USD to GBP, on the presumption the USD/GBP will be at approx 1.90 end of 2009, which means if the USD/THB remains at 35, then GBP/THB will be 66.5

I'll probably delay buying any substantial assets until the GBP/THB improves towards the end of 2009, and just withdraw month on month living expenses.

Keep an option open on working maybe 6 months UK/Europe each year, then 6 months back in Thailand.

I'm invested in Tulip Trend fund, its a Managed Futures fund, historically its done well in down-turns, its performance can be seen at www.trend.ky

Also, I'm invested in Brandeaux Dollar Fund, but want to switch to their Student Accomodation Fund Sterling, these funds return approx 7 to 10% per anum, you can pull up the performance of these funds on www.bloomberg.com

After the dollar weakens, and you get more baht for your pound, then I may consider large asset purchases.

I am with 2 Brandeaux Funds, one of which is their Student Acc.Fund, and they are both returning 8%--which in these times is a good rate--they have closed these Funds to new investment for the time being though.

[chiang mai]

I'm moving my capital from USD to GBP, on the presumption the USD/GBP will be at approx 1.90 end of 2009, which means if the USD/THB remains at 35, then GBP/THB will be 66.5

I'll probably delay buying any substantial assets until the GBP/THB improves towards the end of 2009, and just withdraw month on month living expenses.

Keep an option open on working maybe 6 months UK/Europe each year, then 6 months back in Thailand.

I'm invested in Tulip Trend fund, its a Managed Futures fund, historically its done well in down-turns, its performance can be seen at www.trend.ky

Also, I'm invested in Brandeaux Dollar Fund, but want to switch to their Student Accomodation Fund Sterling, these funds return approx 7 to 10% per anum, you can pull up the performance of these funds on www.bloomberg.com

After the dollar weakens, and you get more baht for your pound, then I may consider large asset purchases.

I am with 2 Brandeaux Funds, one of which is their Student Acc.Fund, and they are both returning 8%--which in these times is a good rate--they have closed these Funds to new investment for the time being though.

Pleased to see that you got yourself sorted with this Billy, can you point me at any web link that describes the products?

[beginner]

I

So what to do? One part of a strategy is to buy the maximum permitted amount of National Savings and Investments Index Linked Certificates. At any one time you can purchase 15000 UKP of 3 year term and another 15K of 5 year term.

As each new tranche is released you can buy another 30k without limit.

Chiang Mai replied.

That sounds like a good idea, I had looked at them before but concluded it wasn't desperation time yet, maybe I should look again! It'll be interesting to see if the UK government will sell them to non-resident ex pats.

Yes. Definitely a non-resident expat can buy them. You can not use the direct online purchase site but must phone 0500 500 500 and register your address as required by money laundering regulations etc. After that you just phone and they debit your UK account as you wait. They are very efficient.

The point about buying now, before 'desperation time' when the banking crisis really hits is that you can only buy two lots of 15k UKP from each issue. When inflation picks up again, as many believe it will, then everyone will be clamouring for them and only able to buy 30k until the Government authorises another issue which they won't do until sales dry up completely. Then it will be too late to get the benefit.

So if you buy now you can accumulate more as each issue appears and roll them over at the end of the term and still get inflation proofing. If the index falls you still get back your investment plus interest.

What are the chances of UK inflation being zero in three years time when all that intervention, or pump priming cash is sloshing round the UK economy? The politicians are fighting the fire (financial credit freeze) by pumping water (cash) and ignoring the fact that the lake is emptying and the price to refill the lake will be higher. (borrowing yet more money).

I am just suggesting that it can form another part of your strategy to preserve your wealth along with everything else (premium bonds are also fun and risk free for another 30k). When the time looks right you can sell at a moments notice and get into index tracker funds or whatever you like the look of.

[haybilly]

I'm moving my capital from USD to GBP, on the presumption the USD/GBP will be at approx 1.90 end of 2009, which means if the USD/THB remains at 35, then GBP/THB will be 66.5

I'll probably delay buying any substantial assets until the GBP/THB improves towards the end of 2009, and just withdraw month on month living expenses.

Keep an option open on working maybe 6 months UK/Europe each year, then 6 months back in Thailand.

I'm invested in Tulip Trend fund, its a Managed Futures fund, historically its done well in down-turns, its performance can be seen at www.trend.ky

Also, I'm invested in Brandeaux Dollar Fund, but want to switch to their Student Accomodation Fund Sterling, these funds return approx 7 to 10% per anum, you can pull up the performance of these funds on www.bloomberg.com

After the dollar weakens, and you get more baht for your pound, then I may consider large asset purchases.

I am with 2 Brandeaux Funds, one of which is their Student Acc.Fund, and they are both returning 8%--which in these times is a good rate--they have closed these Funds to new investment for the time being though.

Pleased to see that you got yourself sorted with this Billy, can you point me at any web link that describes the products?

According to the above post they are available for checking on Bloomberg but that's not how I review them--I actually followed your lead, Rob, and contacted your man in Chiswick--I think I PM'ed you to give thanks some while back--his company have 'some' low risk options and Brandeaux are one of them--PM me for anything more detailed.

Edited December 19, 2008 by haybilly

[churchill]

these are very worrying times for those who rely on gbp.

we recently sold some land here and made a good profit on it too , it will provide for us for three to four years here in thailand. some of it has been re invested here at 4.25% for 12 months with the banks.

i have a big offshore bond (gbp) maturing next week and am tearing my hair out trying to decide how to re invest it sensibly. i am considering a split between euros at 2.67% for 6 months and pounds at 4.10% for 6 months with hbos/lloyds offshore in the iom , i think the danger of banks collapsing now is unlikely , but who really knows exactly what surprises are round the corner , every week seems to bring more devastating disclosures of mismanagement , frauds and writeoffs and i think the gbp has a way to go before it bottoms. i am also considering some aussie dollars at 4.4% in barclays iom offshore.

i have little to zero knowledge of financial affairs and follow the financial threads on thai visa with great interest and wish i had the knowledge and the balls to do some currency trading. i am not a risk taker and probably too cautious for my own good. 6 months ago i was laughing , 6.75% interest tax free , and no need to touch the capital , now things are very different.

i would like to invest in gold , but have no idea how to go about it.

normally i would say , just sit it out for 6 months and wait for the bounceback , but in these uncertain times i just dont think things will recover so quickly , and have nightmares of the gbp becoming a joke currency like the zimbabwe pound or dollar.

it seems that governments and financial experts around the world have little knowledge either of exactly how to control all this and as usual , it is the savers and workers who will all suffer at the hands of greedy risk taking bankers , head in the sand regulators and loudmouthed and vote seeking politicians all of whom are flying blind into the mountainside.

the best bet would be to get some income in thai baht to cover living expenses here and bring over as little as possible in gbp until the rates improve , whenever that will be.......or hope for a devaluation of the baht , although that will do little to change the fate of the gbp.

the best way to get income in thailand is from property rental , but that requires a large investment and in these uncertain times the supply of renters may well dry up too.

good luck to each and every one of us with a gbp derived income.

heres to better times.

Re investing in Gold - I invest in mining companies via the Blackrock Gold and General Fund - up around 46% in the last month -However I still feel a good time to invest - the fund was nearly 40% higher from where it is today a few months ago

http://www.trustnet.com/Investments/Perf.a...edDirection=Asc

[Super Hans]

I think it was John Cleese who said the most depressing thing about living in Britain is nobody ever thinks the country is going to improve.

And he was right Hans, it doesn't, sadly it only gets worse. I've been an ex pat for most of my life because of my work, at the back of my mind however has always been the thought that one day I might go and live there, probably when I am in my final years. But every time I look at the place I find more and more reason why I can't or shouldn't do that. It used to be that the weather was the general gripe, then it was the quality of the food. After a while it became high taxation followed by the high cost of real estate. Now it's all of those things plus it seems unsafe to walk down the street anymore for fear of being knifed or arrested for political incorrectness. I just don't know how "we've" managed to screw it all up so badly.

It was meant ironically. The UK has improved immeasurably over the nigh on 40 years I've lived here. Even the weather's slightly better - thanks global warming!

Agree on the PC issue though.

[Mosha]

I went back 3 years ago, the atmosphere in Dewsbury was terrible. Now whether this was because one of the London bombers came from Thornhill I don't know. I do know I was happy to get back here.

[chiang mai]

There's an interesting piece in the UK Times this morning that describes some of the effects of deflation so thought it worth including here in the context of Sterling strategies for expats - (link below). As you might expect it doesn't paint a very nice picture, especially if you still have UK borrowings such as a mortgage and it does not bode well for future pension payments, state or private. But the news for savers with cash deposits is not bad since UK banks are likely to continue to keep savings rates well above base rate simply because banks need the money, case in point is Nationwide currently.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/con...icle5366383.ece

There's also another piece (link below) that describes life in Spain for British expats and it makes dire reading - it's worth reading though just to understand what could happen here.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/...-breadline.html

[taxexile]

the article about expats in spain does indeed make dire reading , the parallels between expat lifestyles in spain and here are glaringly obvious , but at least here it is possible to make a reduced income go a very long way and to exist on very little money indeed.

but how many expats would really be able to "go native" and live on say 300b a day if things really and truly got so horrendous and bad for them...... errr , us.

i suspect that many of us would return to the uk , where our money would go further , it would be possible to work , and that , sunhats in our outstretched hands , we would approach the all encompassing and much grumbled about benefit system for a handout or three.

i'm sure that the constant and unrelenting tidal wave of bad news that is coming from the 24 hour news systems , internet , the masses of news outlets etc. is responsible for a large proportion of this crisis as the fear and panic feeds on itself and the prophecies of doom become self fulfilling.

maybe we should all just shut up and crack open another magnum of moet.

[So1DoG]

I'm moving my capital from USD to GBP, on the presumption the USD/GBP will be at approx 1.90 end of 2009, which means if the USD/THB remains at 35, then GBP/THB will be 66.5

I'll probably delay buying any substantial assets until the GBP/THB improves towards the end of 2009, and just withdraw month on month living expenses.

Keep an option open on working maybe 6 months UK/Europe each year, then 6 months back in Thailand.

I'm invested in Tulip Trend fund, its a Managed Futures fund, historically its done well in down-turns, its performance can be seen at www.trend.ky

Also, I'm invested in Brandeaux Dollar Fund, but want to switch to their Student Accomodation Fund Sterling, these funds return approx 7 to 10% per anum, you can pull up the performance of these funds on www.bloomberg.com

After the dollar weakens, and you get more baht for your pound, then I may consider large asset purchases.

I've changed 80% of my USD back to GBP.In the long run I feel its the best option.1 year ago everyone was screaming abt 2 USD to the pound now its the other way people are still screaming.

Long term I thing Sterling USD will settle abt 1.70.Thai Baht to USD abt 40,Thai Baht to sterling 66.

Thats my take anyway.

EPG.

This is a refreshing change, People talking positive for once, It may happen it may not but one thing for sure it makes you feel better.

[chiang mai]

I'm moving my capital from USD to GBP, on the presumption the USD/GBP will be at approx 1.90 end of 2009, which means if the USD/THB remains at 35, then GBP/THB will be 66.5

I'll probably delay buying any substantial assets until the GBP/THB improves towards the end of 2009, and just withdraw month on month living expenses.

Keep an option open on working maybe 6 months UK/Europe each year, then 6 months back in Thailand.

I'm invested in Tulip Trend fund, its a Managed Futures fund, historically its done well in down-turns, its performance can be seen at www.trend.ky

Also, I'm invested in Brandeaux Dollar Fund, but want to switch to their Student Accomodation Fund Sterling, these funds return approx 7 to 10% per anum, you can pull up the performance of these funds on www.bloomberg.com

After the dollar weakens, and you get more baht for your pound, then I may consider large asset purchases.

I've changed 80% of my USD back to GBP.In the long run I feel its the best option.1 year ago everyone was screaming abt 2 USD to the pound now its the other way people are still screaming.

Long term I thing Sterling USD will settle abt 1.70.Thai Baht to USD abt 40,Thai Baht to sterling 66.

Thats my take anyway.

EPG.

This is a refreshing change, People talking positive for once, It may happen it may not but one thing for sure it makes you feel better.

I just finished reading currency forecasts from two different banks and guess what, they forecast GBP/USD to be 1.35 by the end of 1Q09 and by the end 4Q10 it is forecast to be 1.17. As a guide it currently sits at 1.4950 - this seems to support the longer term strategy of some others on this forum and annoyingly means that Britmaveric may yet be right after all.