And You Think That The Pad Blockade Only Affected The Touist Industry... Yr Wrong !

[Heng]

More like move on down the road from 1900-2500 Baht massages to 800-1400 Baht massages, but I do like the positive thinking.

[pumpuiman]

Think of all the elderly parents and children whose income has stopped being sent home from Bangkok...a sad but true reality. The repercussions are endless...hunger, not being able to afford quality health care, repossession of homes/vehicles etc....

The PAD terrorist leaders should be jailed to inspire confidence in Thailand internationally. As long as they are free to overrun airports, the possibility of healing will not happen.

Thailand is looked upon as the buffoon of the world now, a place where terrorism is overlooked.

Immediate decisive action needs to be taken.

Complete cr*p !

A reduction in the monthly money transfers from Pattaya/bangkok to Isaan will simply result in a reduction in 'luxuries'. The real Isaan parents are used to living on the bread-line, managing without a car, owing their homes outright and taking advantage of virtually free government hospital care.

In line with other posters I believe that reduced visitors to Thailand are largely a result of the squeeze on finances. I would estimate that only 10% is due to the political situation where travel warnings are heeded more by families than single male travellers.

Your buffoon coment is as trite and insulting as it's inaccuracy.

A reduction in luxuries?!! If you took the time to read my post, you may have noticed I was referring to the elderly and children...who would obviously not have an income.

Your response to people being forced to beg (bread line) doing without a vehicle (repossession)

having access to quality health care (30 baht system)....is that their used to it?

And you refer to my post as insulting?

You also assume their are no (or very few) home mortgages in Isaan.

And my post is

Complete cr*p !

?

And to assume that single male travelers don't heed travel warnings is ridiculous.

And another pebble of wisdom...only ten percent of the huge number of people deciding not to travel to Thailand are concerned about the overthrow of the international airport they would have been using (and the fact that the group that committed this act has not been punished in any way, and has threatened to repeat it)

The world is laughing at Thailand's incompetence...hanging tampons, cooking shows,police filmed running away, the army refusing to act.....it's a circus. But to think so is trite in your eyes apparently.

Insulting?...yes I hope so. Thailand's government needs to wake the fukc up....maybe a slap in the face is what they need.

[mommysboy]

I saw an economist analyst on AJE who said Thailand will be fairly insulated from the global economic recession. The tourism slowdown may have been inevitable with the world economic downturn, and the effects of the political crisis may only be temporary. Thailand's economy is very diverse. I lived in a place with an economy that was 80% tourism driven (Hawaii) and it is going to take a beating in 2009. Thailand probably will not. True, Thailand lost its Christmas high season this year, but I wouldn't expect any long-lasting damage.

Dream On !! We're just going in to a long deep recession IMHO.

[F1fanatic]

He spoke with his regular girl, she told him over 100 girls have been laid off due to NO customers, not a slow down, she said none, zip, nada .

Most of the customers at places like that are Thai. But regardless, good, maybe this will be a chance for them to turn their lives around. I'm sure they can manage without their extravagant massage parlour income and get a normal job like everyone else.

God, it's sooo sad, all those poor 'masseurs' for the farang having to find a respectable job - it doesn't bear thinking about (if you're farang)!

[britmaveric]

I think you can write 2009 off - maybe things will be better in 2010.

[mommysboy]

As much as it may seem for some forum members that they are supporting all of Issan, tourism is not the lifeline of the Issan economy, much less the Thai economy as a whole. The downturn in the manufacturing sector -which is happening- is much more troubling, ah but only a dozen or so forum members manufacture anything or do anykind of wholesale trade so it doesn't seem like such a big deal.

Yes, but to further clarify, nearly all sectors of the Thai economy are in trouble. Tourism is one area that backs on to other aspects of the economy and is a very direct cash generator, it's not to be dismissed as trivial IMHO.

[geriatrickid]

As well tourists going to Greece in summer, Flying to Greece: 100-150 Euro, they would consider Thailand at 500-600 Euro but not at 1000 Euro.

After this month's violent riots, looting, vandalism etc. in Greece, if people are scared of Thailand they will be terrified of Greece. No matter how bad it was in Thailand, there were no gangs roaming the streets looking to burn down the city.

[sorry maybe i'm missing your point, but you can't really compare a bombing aimed at completely innocent people which created carnage and terror with a sit-in political protest in a strategic (to your aims) position.

True, but if you are looking for peace of mind, would you be willing to assume the risk of being stranded? There is a psychology to coping with negative events. Europeans, especially those that have lived through terrorism can cope with it. It could be denial, or the stiff British upper lip but folks will work around the threat of a terrorist attack because there are concrete actions taken in places to deal with it and that provides reassurance, e.g. visible police presence, government action. However, less severe events like airport seizures or street crime does more to scare off a person when there is no response from the police or government.

I think you can write 2009 off - maybe things will be better in 2010.

I think it's worse than that. We won't see start of world economies recovery until 2011 or later. Canada the only G7 economy to post consistent budget surpluses projects deficits for next 5 years. Major EU countries project the same, and the good ole USA which has its printing presses working overtime to make new bills, will be lucky if it isn't bankrupt in a year.

[Chaimai]

A reduction in luxuries?!! If you took the time to read my post, you may have noticed I was referring to the elderly and children...who would obviously not have an income.

These are exactly the people to whom I refer. For many years they have been used to subsistence way of life. When daughters (typically) moved south to work in industry and 'tourism' that is when televisions and other domestic luxuries arrived. Where perhaps larger sums were introduced into the family coffers was when a Farang became enrolled into the family.

Your response to people being forced to beg (bread line) doing without a vehicle (repossession)

having access to quality health care (30 baht system)....is that their used to it?

Same thing with health care - it remains available. You want private care then that is a luxury in my book. As for vehicles, I still see those in the minority of households in the villages that I have frequented. The only new ones are Farang purchases (I accept that this is the village view and larger towns/cities will have their fair share of wealthy Thais).

And you refer to my post as insulting?

No. I have no desire to insult you, or your right to post - I offer my apologies if that was the interpretation. I only referred to your "buffoon of the world" comment as being insulting. Be fair, George W in your homeland can more reasonably be accused of buffoonery, as can several politicians in the UK !

You also assume their are no (or very few) home mortgages in Isaan.

I am sure there are, but without the stats I don't know what the risk profile is. I doubt there is much sub-prime around and the relative cautiousness of the Thai banks SHOULD mean that repossessions are proportionately much lower than in the West.

And my post is

Complete cr*p !

?

And to assume that single male travelers don't heed travel warnings is ridiculous.

Less so than families. Those single travellers in pattaya and most of Bangkok would have seen nothing to detract from their holiday/visit. Only when the airport was closed down did it become a factor. I am not trying to diminish the negative impact of the closure, I just don't see at being as dramatic as somne posters.

And another pebble of wisdom...only ten percent of the huge number of people deciding not to travel to Thailand are concerned about the overthrow of the international airport they would have been using (and the fact that the group that committed this act has not been punished in any way, and has threatened to repeat it)

I still believe that more people are not coming because of economic reasons rather than fear of PAD - your comment in brackets only adds to the 'dramatic' view. Many visitors will not give a toss about that and will leave Thailand to resolve it's own problems. Again, I will happily retract my belief if stats show otherwise.

The world is laughing at Thailand's incompetence...hanging tampons, cooking shows,police filmed running away, the army refusing to act.....it's a circus. But to think so is trite in your eyes apparently.

I only said your buffoon comment was trite. The world only sees what the world's press shows. Many (most) infrequent/casual visitors are not close to the political sensitivities of the country and do not see events through the same magnifying glass that you have. Anyone who does actually give a toss is probably more amazed at the resilience of the Baht rather than any national incompetence.

Insulting?...yes I hope so. Thailand's government needs to wake the fukc up....maybe a slap in the face is what they need.

I do understand your motives in wanting to give a wake up call to the government. Any damage to tourism, or damage to confidence in trading with Thailand, in the present economic climate is not a good thing. I applaud your motives - I just don't share the drama of them. Further sensationalising events that have passed only serves to return focus to something Thailand probably wants to forget.

[rixalex]

The world is laughing at Thailand's incompetence...hanging tampons, cooking shows,police filmed running away, the army refusing to act.....it's a circus. But to think so is trite in your eyes apparently.

Insulting?...yes I hope so. Thailand's government needs to wake the fukc up....maybe a slap in the face is what they need.

Just because you think something, doesn't necessarily mean the international community shares your opinion.

I don't pressume to know what the international community feels about recent events in Thailand any more than you can, but it could be that they are impressed with the way some Thai people with backbone and a moral compass, stood up against a corrupt and inept government that was working on behalf of a convicted criminal who refuses to accept charges against him and who continues to stir unrest and division.

The international community might also have cause to feel some optimism about the new administration in Thailand, which seems to be working hard towards calming down tensions and rebuilding relationships. Far too early to judge whether they'll be successful, but they need to be given a chance and i think that all those bar Thaksin's faithful followers will allow them that chance.

[wamberal]

He spoke with his regular girl, she told him over 100 girls have been laid off due to NO customers, not a slow down, she said none, zip, nada .

Most of the customers at places like that are Thai. But regardless, good, maybe this will be a chance for them to turn their lives around. I'm sure they can manage without their extravagant massage parlour income and get a normal job like everyone else.

God, it's sooo sad, all those poor 'masseurs' for the farang having to find a respectable job - it doesn't bear thinking about (if you're farang)!

What percentage of masseurs in Thailand rely on westerners? 1%?

[TAWP]

As much as it may seem for some forum members that they are supporting all of Issan, tourism is not the lifeline of the Issan economy, much less the Thai economy as a whole. The downturn in the manufacturing sector -which is happening- is much more troubling, ah but only a dozen or so forum members manufacture anything or do anykind of wholesale trade so it doesn't seem like such a big deal.

Yes, but to further clarify, nearly all sectors of the Thai economy are in trouble. Tourism is one area that backs on to other aspects of the economy and is a very direct cash generator, it's not to be dismissed as trivial IMHO.

Ofcourse, but it was been a steady decline for 2 years and the PAD sit-in (takeover) is a mere blimp on the radar.

Heng is an exporter of a commodity, the same as my extended family, and a reduction of tourists have a very-very small impact on the sales.

[F1fanatic]

He spoke with his regular girl, she told him over 100 girls have been laid off due to NO customers, not a slow down, she said none, zip, nada .

Most of the customers at places like that are Thai. But regardless, good, maybe this will be a chance for them to turn their lives around. I'm sure they can manage without their extravagant massage parlour income and get a normal job like everyone else.

God, it's sooo sad, all those poor 'masseurs' for the farang having to find a respectable job - it doesn't bear thinking about (if you're farang)!

What percentage of masseurs in Thailand rely on westerners? 1%?

You're clearly joking??!!

[Martin]

From what I see in the villages here, most remitted money gets invested in the children and youths. It is not just tuition fees and transport to school, but youngsters having motorbikes and mobile phones is important, too.

A lot of the social harm done by rural-to-urban drift can be laid at the door of living in the village being boring to the young. Mobility and connectivity, based on motor bikes and mobile phones, are two of the ameliorators of that.

What Thailand needs is for its villages to keep their brightest and best youngsters and for them to have the spirit to start businesses and build up the 'social capital' in the villages.

It is a mammoth requirement and very difficult in the present circumstances of sudden collapse of the foreign-currency earners of manufacture-for-export and tourism.

That is no short-lived recession that is setting in in those long-industrialised countries. It may well be that they never see an increase in their GDPs again. Already 'being frugal' (and cutting out foreign holidays is one part) is becoming the paradigm for many in 'the West', even though they are in a secure position and can afford to go on spending.

I am much more optimistic for Thailand than, say, James Howard Kunstler is for America in his book 'The Long Emergency'; but my optimism is tempered by seeing that the magnitude of the transitions that will come is not being quickly realised.

The OP is right that the blockade of the airport had knock-on effects beyond the tourist industry, and other posters are right that there are other problems also feeding in to the economic downturn that we are seeing.

We should try to stand back a bit and see more of the whole picture and care and be kind to those who are suffering, even if their employment was something that we did not approve of.

[Heng]

As much as it may seem for some forum members that they are supporting all of Issan, tourism is not the lifeline of the Issan economy, much less the Thai economy as a whole. The downturn in the manufacturing sector -which is happening- is much more troubling, ah but only a dozen or so forum members manufacture anything or do anykind of wholesale trade so it doesn't seem like such a big deal.

Yes, but to further clarify, nearly all sectors of the Thai economy are in trouble. Tourism is one area that backs on to other aspects of the economy and is a very direct cash generator, it's not to be dismissed as trivial IMHO.

Wasn't dismissing it as trivial. Was matter of factly stating that it wasn't the center of the economy.

[Ulysses G.]

We should try to stand back a bit and see more of the whole picture and care and be kind to those who are suffering, even if their employment was something that we did not approve of.

I have no sympathy for those with previous employment blockading airports while wearing a yellow shirt. Let them eat worms!

Edited December 23, 2008 by Ulysses G.

[F1fanatic]

As much as it may seem for some forum members that they are supporting all of Issan, tourism is not the lifeline of the Issan economy, much less the Thai economy as a whole. The downturn in the manufacturing sector -which is happening- is much more troubling, ah but only a dozen or so forum members manufacture anything or do anykind of wholesale trade so it doesn't seem like such a big deal.

Where did you get the idea that tourism supported Issan??!!

I'm so sorry to disillusion you, but sex-pats support Issan! Why do you think they're so welcoming of farangs - they think the farangs have money and loving it so much, encourage their daughters to become b/g's in the tourist centres.

If the b'g's move back, at least they'll be producing something real for the families. Let's face it, the majority of b/g's might produce a short term income, but only a minority actually produce the goods. (i.e. marry or move in with a farang).

[Kerryd]

What percentage of masseurs in Thailand rely on westerners? 1%?

You're clearly joking??!!

What, you think the Thai Massage Industry revolves around the tourist industry ? That it's primarily "westerners" getting massages ? You think all massage parlours are "happy ending" soapies ?

There is more to the country than just Phuket you know. Even in my neighbourhood in Pattaya, there are about 6 massage places. 1 or 2 probably make most of their money off tourists. 2 may get the odd westerner passing by, and the other two have probably rarely ever had a westerner enter.

wamberal's "1%" may be a little low, but around the country as a whole westerners are not the main customers.

[zaza]

What percentage of masseurs in Thailand rely on westerners? 1%?

You're clearly joking??!!

What, you think the Thai Massage Industry revolves around the tourist industry ? That it's primarily "westerners" getting massages ? You think all massage parlours are "happy ending" soapies ?

There is more to the country than just Phuket you know. Even in my neighbourhood in Pattaya, there are about 6 massage places. 1 or 2 probably make most of their money off tourists. 2 may get the odd westerner passing by, and the other two have probably rarely ever had a westerner enter.

wamberal's "1%" may be a little low, but around the country as a whole westerners are not the main customers.

That is so true Kerry, I totally agree with you.

In the outer skirts of Bangkok and on the far suburban areas from the center of city like Laksi,Nwamin,Ladpraw,sukabiban3,and others,you hardly meet a westerner there,but; yet you would encounter many night clubs and massage parlors ,mainly for the local consumption though.

[Heng]

As much as it may seem for some forum members that they are supporting all of Issan, tourism is not the lifeline of the Issan economy, much less the Thai economy as a whole. The downturn in the manufacturing sector -which is happening- is much more troubling, ah but only a dozen or so forum members manufacture anything or do anykind of wholesale trade so it doesn't seem like such a big deal.

Where did you get the idea that tourism supported Issan??!!

I'm so sorry to disillusion you, but sex-pats support Issan! Why do you think they're so welcoming of farangs - they think the farangs have money and loving it so much, encourage their daughters to become b/g's in the tourist centres.

If the b'g's move back, at least they'll be producing something real for the families. Let's face it, the majority of b/g's might produce a short term income, but only a minority actually produce the goods. (i.e. marry or move in with a farang).

I didn't say that tourism supported the Issan economy. I said the exact opposite. LOLZ.

You're the only one in this post who is disillusioned, apparently.

[Heng]

What percentage of masseurs in Thailand rely on westerners? 1%?

You're clearly joking??!!

What, you think the Thai Massage Industry revolves around the tourist industry ? That it's primarily "westerners" getting massages ? You think all massage parlours are "happy ending" soapies ?

There is more to the country than just Phuket you know. Even in my neighbourhood in Pattaya, there are about 6 massage places. 1 or 2 probably make most of their money off tourists. 2 may get the odd westerner passing by, and the other two have probably rarely ever had a westerner enter.

wamberal's "1%" may be a little low, but around the country as a whole westerners are not the main customers.

That is so true Kerry, I totally agree with you.

In the outer skirts of Bangkok and on the far suburban areas from the center of city like Laksi,Nwamin,Ladpraw,sukabiban3,and others,you hardly meet a westerner there,but; yet you would encounter many night clubs and massage parlors ,mainly for the local consumption though.

It's difficult to calculate. Westerners don't amount to much in terms of revenues and total customer visits, but when you factor in the disproportionate numbers who take ex-prostitutes as life partners, how many of those relationships result in Thais receiving revenue as defacto heirs to western pensions and life insurance payouts, the total balance probably gets skewed back in the other direction (although still, IMO it still isn't enough to counter that most of the industry is geared towards and benefits most from local retail/wholesale revenue).

[Kerryd]

It's difficult to calculate. Westerners don't amount to much in terms of revenues and total customer visits, but when you factor in the disproportionate numbers who take ex-prostitutes as life partners, how many of those relationships result in Thais receiving revenue as defacto heirs to western pensions and life insurance payouts, the total balance probably gets skewed back in the other direction (although still, IMO it still isn't enough to counter that most of the industry is geared towards and benefits most from local retail/wholesale revenue).

Difficult if you are trying to calculate the overall effect of westerners on the Thai economy as a whole.

But this last bit was just about the overall influence westerners have on the "massage" industry.

(still difficult to calculate of course, without having accurate research information)

If one were to put on blinders and wander about the "touristy" areas of Pattaya for example, one may well assume that the entire massage industry is tourist dependent, and any resulting downward trend in tourism would have a detrimental effect on that segment of the economy.

But take off the blinders, travel the country a bit and see how things are in the rest of the country, and you'll quickly realise that the massage industry, much like the prostitution industry, is predominately dependent on domestic trade, not "westerners".

[Heng]

Yes, I was talking about the massage "industry" (total visits, revenue from said visits, and economic relationships that begin from said visits, etc.).

[Chaimai]

But take off the blinders, travel the country a bit and see how things are in the rest of the country, and you'll quickly realise that the massage industry, much like the prostitution industry, is predominately dependent on domestic trade, not "westerners".

They have prostitution in Thailand ??

[bunnaag]

But take off the blinders, travel the country a bit and see how things are in the rest of the country, and you'll quickly realise that the massage industry, much like the prostitution industry, is predominately dependent on domestic trade, not "westerners".

They have prostitution in Thailand ??

Yes but only underground.

[Dakhar]

But take off the blinders, travel the country a bit and see how things are in the rest of the country, and you'll quickly realise that the massage industry, much like the prostitution industry, is predominately dependent on domestic trade, not "westerners".

They have prostitution in Thailand ??

Yes but only underground.

that must be why I never seen anything of the sort here

[Kerryd]

But take off the blinders, travel the country a bit and see how things are in the rest of the country, and you'll quickly realise that the massage industry, much like the prostitution industry, is predominately dependent on domestic trade, not "westerners".

They have prostitution in Thailand ??

Yes but only underground.

Underground ? Sounds dirty to me (and possibly even kinky).

[mahtin]

God, it's sooo sad, all those poor 'masseurs' for the farang having to find a respectable job - it doesn't bear thinking about (if you're farang)!

I always insist on a masseuse - with no adam's apple

[MrHammer]

I thought those establishments were mainly for thais, but maybe their customers were to busy protesting?

[tartempion]

What percentage of masseurs in Thailand rely on westerners? 1%?

You're clearly joking??!!

F1, you show you're an expert in Thai culture

I can show you 100 MP's in Bangkok where they ever hardly see any farangs.

Then lets visit Ayuthaya, do you think farangs go that far to find an incognito MP?

Ever been to a short-time hotel where they close the curtain after you parked your car and where you walk straight from your car to the bed?

Then visit the country side villages, do you know what happens in these year round Christmas trees lighted places which show "24h"?

[MrHammer]

What percentage of masseurs in Thailand rely on westerners? 1%?

You're clearly joking??!!

F1, you show you're an expert in Thai culture

I can show you 100 MP's in Bangkok where they ever hardly see any farangs.

Then lets visit Ayuthaya, do you think farangs go that far to find an incognito MP?

Ever been to a short-time hotel where they close the curtain after you parked your car and where you walk straight from your car to the bed?

Then visit the country side villages, do you know what happens in these year round Christmas trees lighted places which show "24h"?

Lol.. this reminds of a time my two friends from university stumbled into a 'thai massage' place. On the outside drawings of therapeutic massage and thai script, on the inside 20 or so girls behind a glass window!

But you would never know from the outside!