Gold Up In 2008 , Where To In 2009 ?

[Lost in LOS]

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[churchill]

Eastern Europe could dump Gold ! How likely ?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/29256295

[Naam]

Eastern Europe could dump Gold ! How likely ?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/29256295

an innocent question Churchill. do you believe a person pushing Bernanke' trillions of UST to be issued by pointing negatively to Eastern Europe but who claims (as follows)?

quote: "So, what’s left? Gold, that's what. Central and Eastern Europe are sitting atop 730 metric tonnes of bullion, with a current market value of $259 billion."

what would you say is today's value of 730 mt of gold bullion in US-Dollars?

[churchill]

Approx 730 $billion ? and wouldn't selling the gold cause their currencies to fall further making their problems worse .

[cloudhopper]

I get 23 billion and change. A drop in the debt bucket.

[churchill]

Yes probably correct

http://goldnerds.com.au/o/content/view/30/...eofgoldperpound

[churchill]

duplicate post

Edited February 20, 2009 by churchill

[Naam]

Approx 730 $billion ? and wouldn't selling the gold cause their currencies to fall further making their problems worse .

in line with the CNBC economics editor maths was quite obviously not one your favourite subjects. look at Cloudhopper's answer and then compare his (correct) 23 billion with the 259 billion of the Right Honourable Mr. Baccardax of CNBC and your 730 billion.

of course in present times it is difficult to calculate and express in billions. en vogue are and everybody speaks of trillions

case Eastern Europe's gold billions closed. next please!

[AlexLah]

But what if everybody devalues their toilet paper then Gold would go skyhigh and would it then not be helpfull to pay off all debt?

I think I read somewhere that if the US would wanna use their Gold to pay off their debt Gold should be priced something like 50.000 per ounce.

Hmmmmmmm, maybe a bit of a problem here.....

Anyway Gold is doing fine and on it's way to break through 1000 USD perhaps somewhere next week.

[colibra]

Look for a rapid decline in the price of gold soon.. Its just another bubble and its going to pop and you don't to left holding the gold at 500usd per oz. Sell now. beat the rush.

[Lost in LOS]

Look for a rapid decline in the price of gold soon.. Its just another bubble and its going to pop and you don't to left holding the gold at 500usd per oz. Sell now. beat the rush.

oh good, i always love a quote. this way i know whether to hate you or love you : )

I am up 24+% in less than a year on a nice amount and I plan on holding out for a bit..... no knowledge just a feeling. we shall see who is right in the coming months

[Naam]

Look for a rapid decline in the price of gold soon.. Its just another bubble and its going to pop and you don't to left holding the gold at 500usd per oz. Sell now. beat the rush.

even "anti-goldbugs" like me don't see gold going down in the near future. the crisis is with us, will definitely get worse and it will take years for the economies to go back to "normal". the latter is of course based on the assumption that we get back to "normal" globally.

x-waves, monkey bones, technical analysis, chicken entrails, fibonacci, sheep uterus, elliott waves and similar voodoo procedures did not forecast the crisis in time, will not indicate its end and are definitely not capable to indicate the future of gold and other precious metals.

[lannarebirth]

Look for a rapid decline in the price of gold soon.. Its just another bubble and its going to pop and you don't to left holding the gold at 500usd per oz. Sell now. beat the rush.

even "anti-goldbugs" like me don't see gold going down in the near future. the crisis is with us, will definitely get worse and it will take years for the economies to go back to "normal". the latter is of course based on the assumption that we get back to "normal" globally.

x-waves, monkey bones, technical analysis, chicken entrails, fibonacci, sheep uterus, elliott waves and similar voodoo procedures did not forecast the crisis in time, will not indicate its end and are definitely not capable to indicate the future of gold and other precious metals.

Blasphemer! Saint Leonardo of Pisa provided the tools to directly map this "global correction". Oh! ye of little faith.

[HardenedSoul]

Look for a rapid decline in the price of gold soon.. Its just another bubble and its going to pop and you don't to left holding the gold at 500usd per oz. Sell now. beat the rush.

even "anti-goldbugs" like me don't see gold going down in the near future. the crisis is with us, will definitely get worse and it will take years for the economies to go back to "normal". the latter is of course based on the assumption that we get back to "normal" globally.

x-waves, monkey bones, technical analysis, chicken entrails, fibonacci, sheep uterus, elliott waves and similar voodoo procedures did not forecast the crisis in time, will not indicate its end and are definitely not capable to indicate the future of gold and other precious metals.

Amen to that !

[AlexLah]

Inshalla!

[Naam]

Look for a rapid decline in the price of gold soon.. Its just another bubble and its going to pop and you don't to left holding the gold at 500usd per oz. Sell now. beat the rush.

even "anti-goldbugs" like me don't see gold going down in the near future. the crisis is with us, will definitely get worse and it will take years for the economies to go back to "normal". the latter is of course based on the assumption that we get back to "normal" globally.

x-waves, monkey bones, technical analysis, chicken entrails, fibonacci, sheep uterus, elliott waves and similar voodoo procedures did not forecast the crisis in time, will not indicate its end and are definitely not capable to indicate the future of gold and other precious metals.

Blasphemer! Saint Leonardo of Pisa provided the tools to directly map this "global correction". Oh! ye of little faith.

[Naam]

Inshalla!

إن شاء الله indeed!

[Nouf]

Look for a rapid decline in the price of gold soon.. Its just another bubble and its going to pop and you don't to left holding the gold at 500usd per oz. Sell now. beat the rush.

even "anti-goldbugs" like me don't see gold going down in the near future. the crisis is with us, will definitely get worse and it will take years for the economies to go back to "normal". the latter is of course based on the assumption that we get back to "normal" globally.

x-waves, monkey bones, technical analysis, chicken entrails, fibonacci, sheep uterus, elliott waves and similar voodoo procedures did not forecast the crisis in time, will not indicate its end and are definitely not capable to indicate the future of gold and other precious metals.

Hmmm i think will take the other side to that bet, i think news is BS, its the reaction to News is what counts, trader psychology is an art and if used properly can make you alot of $$$$

over the years i have had many debates with Fundamentalist`s

these are usually the traders that end up selling at the extreme lows and buying the highs

while its true no one can predict price of any Metal or Commodity, and the future i can with price and pattern from Elliot waves with a degree of certainly predict trades, once price and pattern becomes favourable with limited risk

no system is 100% and we have rules in trading but give me Elliot and Fibonacchi any day over the BS news and Media

i trade the Reaction from the news not the "news"

i know this seems odd to many non Techncial traders, but trader psychology is what drives market not the news

this is why traders and investors get shaken out at the extremes in both directions as their emotions get the better of them.

Presently i have a fair idea where i think gold and Silver will be going in the immediate time frame based on price and patterns

but i also need confirmation 1st as well

Like wise in commodities like soya beans, wheat, coffee and crude etc, i believe we have now entered a bear market in commodites, when all the pundits calling for $200 oil, ellioticans i know were callin BS

based on a topping pattern that was setting up at the highs, like wise the commodites the same, and the Oct top 07 in the US Equities markets,

This is why i can say that deflation is ripe and taking a stance, based on price and pattern in the DX, ( US$ index) once i see a breakdown in pattern on the US$, only think will we likely get inflation of forms of inflation or some sort of stagflation,

This is what many in the public and other traders dont understand, when the talk of Hyper-infation and the death of the US$ when the DX is still showing evidence still of a pattern that still going higher, and thats means a stronmger US$ and a flight to the $ as we have discussed this topic beofre

Only when you see the Breakdown of the DX will you see the breakdown on the US$, but for now price and pattern has given no clues Yet!!!!!

I dont need the Media or the Public telling me what i knew many months ago, in fact i have been trading patterns on many makrets in all time frames again based on Elliot patterns

I can also tell what the actions from US treasury will likely be and what will happen from the Bond market and bond traders based on patterns and price

Just ask Bill clinton what happen when he tried that trick as the Bond market revolted on his spending plan

its all there to be seen and traded if traders take the time to learn price and pattern, but like most of the traders that fail, they let they emotions get the better of them and get bullish and bearish without probable evidence, based on the "NEWS" when they need to let price tell them 1st

I know this 1st hand as i trade the S&P spoo futures in the MERC, a local in the S&P pit doesn`t give 2 craps about the news, he just wants to make money, and is trading against what other traders reactions are , and that is really what matters, making money

Like i said News is BS

market sentiment is ripe in Gold and Silver The bullish sentiment is at 92% for Gold and 95% with Silver, history shows and prior sentiment readings this high, usually mark a top

so based on this evidence i am now looking for a tradeable top, i just need confirmation from price action

Like wise this type of sentiment was the same in the previous "blow offs" in Oil, soya beans, wheat and $US treasuries, before they all marked a top and turning point

The best clue is in your statement, Clue: it starts with "anti-goldbugs" you may of just given me my final clue to market sentiment

So all i can do as a trader is wait for confirmation in price on Silver and Gold, then take the trade with stops to know where my idea is wrong

of course i cant predict the future but i think we are nearer to a top than a continuation of a rally based on pattern and price

I have targets lower for Gold and silver based on repetative patterns and these patterns have been caused by trader psychology, over the years time and time again, and like all previous crisis human emotion is ALWAYS the same and that makes Elliot waves

You only have to look to the 1929-33 chart to see where we are "likely" going as we can use history to try to forecast the future

Edited February 21, 2009 by Nouf

[HardenedSoul]

Colibra, last March, when gold set its record high and central bankers still had some credibility, Ben Bernanke surprised the markets by cutting rates by 0.75% instead of the expected 1% and issuing a hawkish inflation-fighting statement.

The Fed then pursued a "jawboning" policy which, up until the run up to the collapse of Lehman Brothers, had everyone convinced that the next move in US rates more likely to be up than down. We all know what happened next.

The point, put simply, is that no one trusts governments or the banks any more and as trust is the entire foundation of the fiat or paper money system, gold will continue to do well. Sure, pullbacks are possible but what is it going to pullback against ? The dollar's already in serious trouble but what happens to it when, as expected, Citigroup and/or BofA are nationalized ? Citi's stock closed at $1.90 yesterday, for Chrissakes !!

Can the dollar really handle the burden of ooh, I don't know . . . say . . . another $5 TRILLION on the Fed/Treasury balance sheet ?

Frankly, this is staring us all in the face. Scams a la Madoff, banking behemoths collapsing, automaker bailouts, credit downgrades for entire nations and governments printing money left, right and centre. Jeez, I'm not even counting AIG and the likelihood of more billions being used to kick that can a little further down the road

Get with it, gold's got a long way to go

[colibra]

Iam basing my thoughts on the fact that I think markets are manipulated as some on this thread have agreed with. If thet is true. What is the purpose of the manipulations. I believe it is to accumulate wealth in the hands of a few. Just look at the loss of wealth for the average Joe around the world in the last year. Where is that wealth accumulating. We have been herded from one thing to another, bond, yen etc. and now its gold the last safe HAVEN. I'm just wondering how safe it is. If it is deed true that the above stated is true it is only a matter of time before this last haven is attacked.

If it is not being manipulated than by all means buy gold.

I just don't trust the suckers to buy into gold at the present market level. Its like buying a house at the top of the bubble whether to make money or maintain wealth as a hedge against inflation. Perhaps gold at this price might be a good investment if you think that civilation as we know it is going to colapse for a period of time and gold might have some value in the next monitary structure. aloha

[Hairy]

All you Goldbugs and Silver freaks always persume there will be someone to buy your Gold or Silver when the S##t really hits the fan. Why?

My Grandfather was the constable of a small farming town in Massachusetts in the 1930's. It was so bad the town had no money to pay his salary. They paid him with vegatables, fruit, and in rare cases meat (When it got really bad in 1933 and 1934 the farmers couldn't afford to feed their livestock, so they slaughtered them to trade for other foods). They dumped milk into the river, becuse they couldn't sell it at a price that paid for the costs of feed for their milkcows.

Hopefully, it won't be like that again, but if it comes down to that, how many calories are then in an ounce of Gold? How much nutrition does Silver have.

If the worst comes to the worst, what will your Gold be worth if there is no one to buy it?

You presume the economy will go on as before. Why?

Good luck, maybe you'll make a killing on Gold. Or maybe Gold will be your killer.

I believe that the prices of most items..especially housing and equities are 20 to 30 percent overvalued.

That includes commodities,as well as Silver and Gold.

The economy will stabilise when that 20 to 30 percent overvalue is gone...which means prices of many items need to be lowered by 20 to 30 percent to reach a rational level.

That can only be accomplished by a reduction in the standard of living of everyone. Everyone.

I hope I'm wrong. Are you willing to bet your life on Gold and Silver?

Wow, you think its black and white. Am I a silver freak because I want a least 5% of my assets to be silver? Not everyone is trying to get rich by buying metals, but instead just want to hold something of value and diversify a bit. To me, anyone that does not diversify their assets are the one that has the risky bet on.

Vibe, if you read his post, he's very obviously a deflationista, as demonstrated by his statement: ". . . prices of many items need to be lowered by 20 to 30 percent to reach a rational level."

My experience in arguing on stock/finance/economics boards over the last year and a half of the financial crisis is that the deflationistas cannot be reasoned with. They simply KNOW that prices are too high and must collapse, making them fabulously wealthy in the process. It doesn't matter that governments' central banks worldwide, ESPECIALLY THE U.S. FEDERAL RESERVE, are going berserk in trying to stave off deflation at any cost, even up to and including the destruction of their own currency. If you show them that prices are rising in all classes of goods (except, at the moment, housing -- even global oil is rising in price again, although the "West Texas Intermediate" crude oil benchmark that everyone cites, and which USO is based upon, is still low due to infrastructure limitations), they point to what they have called "monetary deflation," which is apparently shrinkage in the money supply as a result of falling housing prices, and claim that THAT's what they really mean by deflation. If you then point out that the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve are collaborating to pump trillions -- that's 1,000,000,000,000's -- of USD into the system -- the Treasury issues T-bonds, and the Fed digitally "prints" dollars with which to purchase that debt -- thereby dramatically INCREASING the money supply, they get all cranky and throw tantrums about how it's unfair, and the government doesn't have the legal right to do that, and Bernanke and Geithner are breaking the law.

There's just no logic to the deflationista's position, they refuse to admit even the possibility that they might be wrong, and if you dare to bring up GOLD, *horrors*!!! they blow an aneurism, frothing at the mouth, projectile-vomiting pea soup, head spinning around on the spinal axis, lashing out in fury at how anyone could be so stupid as to consider hanging on to THAT anachronistic useless metal.

So, meanwhile, here's Zimbabwe:

where, according to the above video, a loaf of bread (size unspecified) is going for a tenth of a gram of panned gold (purity unknown, typically 80%), or roughly the equivalent of US$2.50 (about 88 baht).

Then they start screaming that the only reason Zimbabwean black-marketeers are trading bread for gold is because there's an "external market" for the gold, and that nobody can eat gold, and that it's all a fraud.

I mean, honestly, you just can't make this crap up.

Now, I'm willing to entertain the possibility that we'll have a period of mild deflation as a result of the bursting of the housing bubble, just as Japan did in the 1990s. In fact, I welcome deflation. I dam_n well hope we get 90% deflation, so that McMansions sell for fifty thousand USD each, a new Mercedes costs five thousand, candy bars are a nickel again (as they were when I was around seven years old), and all those paper dollars I have stuffed in the bank will let me retire in quiet prosperity.

Ain't gonna happen.

What's far more likely at this point is that the Federal Reserve goes overboard and blows inflation out to 10% annually. That will absolutely destroy anyone who has saved dollars in the bank, or who has purchased T-bonds (foreigners, "safe" investors, retirees), but will let the government pay off its debts in worthless scrap paper.

The Chinese already have said that they know the U.S. will do this. One of their ministers, perfectly fluent in English, said -- and this is a direct quote in the exact English that he spoke -- "You know, we hate you guys." Reason? Because they know the U.S. will keep on "printing" dollars and debasing the currency. That means inflation. Probably high inflation. Probably not hyperinflation, at least not for the foreseeable future (i.e., two to three years). That's what Bernanke and Geithner (and his predecessor, Paulson) WANT. That's what they're TRYING TO DO.

Whether they'll succeed, short term and long term, remains to be seen, but I can pretty much guarantee we won't see a sudden 20% to 30% deflation. A stock price crash? Sure, but that's not deflation, that's just reality asserting itself over the stock market. A housing price drop of another 15% to 20%? Sure, but that's not deflation, that's just reality asserting itself over the housing market. A gold price drop of 50%? Possible, but people are looking at what central bankers are really doing, and they're fleeing for safety in gold as a way of preserving value, since Treasuries and other currencies are all looking too dodgy to risk.

But, anyway, it's past my bedtime here. Watch that video; it's quite something.

Me: reentered gold at 860 and again at 930. Now at 1007, if I recall correctly. Next week, who knows? Not me. But I'm betting on a fall in the stock market and a continued rise in gold, as people flee to the traditional safe haven that has been a store of value for thousands of years, for essentially all of recorded history.

[LivinLOS]

even global oil is rising in price again, although the "West Texas Intermediate" crude oil benchmark that everyone cites, and which USO is based upon, is still low due to infrastructure limitations)

Theres more smoke and mirrors for you to have a ponder on..

I think by now he proof is well established that the PM markets have huge PPT involvement trying to cap prices.. You only need to look at Butlers work analysing the CFTC's own data to know they are trying to manipulate the market.. But heres one reason why WTI crude may be being held down and how they are doing it.

http://www.321energy.com/editorials/kirby/...9.html?print=on

As you say, the fact Brent now trades at a 15% ish premium to WTI when WTI crude has long held the premium is fishy enough.. Then when its discovered they engage in oil swaps to exchange inferior quality crude for strategic reserve held WTI, they can push more WTI onto the market. and cap prices.

Of course this wouldnt happen in a 'free market' now would it people ??

[midas]

All you Goldbugs and Silver freaks always persume there will be someone to buy your Gold or Silver when the S##t really hits the fan. Why?

My Grandfather was the constable of a small farming town in Massachusetts in the 1930's. It was so bad the town had no money to pay his salary. They paid him with vegatables, fruit, and in rare cases meat (When it got really bad in 1933 and 1934 the farmers couldn't afford to feed their livestock, so they slaughtered them to trade for other foods).

Good luck, maybe you'll make a killing on Gold. Or maybe Gold will be your killer.

Wow, you think its black and white. Am I a silver freak because I want a least 5% of my assets to be silver? Not everyone is trying to get rich by buying metals, but instead just want to hold something of value and diversify a bit. To me, anyone that does not diversify their assets are the one that has the risky bet on.

Vibe, if you read his post, he's very obviously a deflationista, as demonstrated by his statement: ". . . prices of many items need to be lowered by 20 to 30 percent to reach a rational level."

My experience in arguing on stock/finance/economics boards over the last year and a half of the financial crisis is that the deflationistas cannot be reasoned with. They simply KNOW that prices are too high and must collapse, making them fabulously wealthy in the process. It doesn't matter that governments' central banks worldwide, ESPECIALLY THE U.S. FEDERAL RESERVE, are going berserk in trying to stave off deflation at any cost, even up to and including the destruction of their own currency.

Hairy, I support IMA_FARANG's perspective because

it's not only about whether you are a proponent of inflation or deflation it's about realizing under certain unforeseen

circumstances, something to eat could be worth far more at any given time than something that is shiny and is perceived

to be valuable only because it has been in the past.

These are totally unprecedented times and I think it's only prudent as a contingency to prepare for a whole range

of different scenarios. One of mine is the possibility under certain circumstances that could lie ahead, if someone offered me

a bowl of rice or a gold coin, I would choose a bowl of rice

[churchill]

All you Goldbugs and Silver freaks always persume there will be someone to buy your Gold or Silver when the S##t really hits the fan. Why?

My Grandfather was the constable of a small farming town in Massachusetts in the 1930's. It was so bad the town had no money to pay his salary. They paid him with vegatables, fruit, and in rare cases meat (When it got really bad in 1933 and 1934 the farmers couldn't afford to feed their livestock, so they slaughtered them to trade for other foods).

Good luck, maybe you'll make a killing on Gold. Or maybe Gold will be your killer.

Wow, you think its black and white. Am I a silver freak because I want a least 5% of my assets to be silver? Not everyone is trying to get rich by buying metals, but instead just want to hold something of value and diversify a bit. To me, anyone that does not diversify their assets are the one that has the risky bet on.

Vibe, if you read his post, he's very obviously a deflationista, as demonstrated by his statement: ". . . prices of many items need to be lowered by 20 to 30 percent to reach a rational level."

My experience in arguing on stock/finance/economics boards over the last year and a half of the financial crisis is that the deflationistas cannot be reasoned with. They simply KNOW that prices are too high and must collapse, making them fabulously wealthy in the process. It doesn't matter that governments' central banks worldwide, ESPECIALLY THE U.S. FEDERAL RESERVE, are going berserk in trying to stave off deflation at any cost, even up to and including the destruction of their own currency.

Hairy, I support IMA_FARANG's perspective because

it's not only about whether you are a proponent of inflation or deflation it's about realizing under certain unforeseen

circumstances, something to eat could be worth far more at any given time than something that is shiny and is perceived

to be valuable only because it has been in the past.

These are totally unprecedented times and I think it's only prudent as a contingency to prepare for a whole range

of different scenarios. One of mine is the possibility under certain circumstances that could lie ahead, if someone offered me

a bowl of rice or a gold coin, I would choose a bowl of rice

What about Face Cream ?

Shiseido, Kao Beat Recession With Creams Priced as Much as Gold

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

[HardenedSoul]

Jeez, I'm not even counting AIG and the likelihood of more billions being used to kick that can a little further down the road

Get with it, gold's got a long way to go

Amd then, as if by magic, AIG are coming back to the trough with the proverbial cap in hand. They're about to announce the biggest loss in corporate history

$60 Billion

http://www.cnbc.com/id/29353282

One should really, really ignore the penultimate paragraph on AIG's credit default swaps. Just requires one of Citi, BofA, GM, Chrysler or Ford to go down to trigger payouts on these blighters and the government's in the hole for billions more.

God, what a mess

[Naam]

As you say, the fact Brent now trades at a 15% ish premium to WTI when WTI crude has long held the premium is fishy enough.. Then when its discovered they engage in oil swaps to exchange inferior quality crude for strategic reserve held WTI, they can push more WTI onto the market. and cap prices.

the gap has narrowed since yesterday. Brent over WTI now ~6%.

[churchill]

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/afx/2009/02/23/afx6083629.html

BOI urged to use gold reserves to guarantee loans

Is this going to be a trend ?- The US has enough gold to guarantee their borrowing .

[churchill]

Soros sees no bottom

http://www.reuters.com/article/wtMostRead/...E51K0A920090221

and Gold / Oil / Inflation

http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2009...s-on-inflation/

[flying]

Just my own impression but.....I think we have not seen this before & many still base their bets/ hunches/market analysis etc etc etc on what they have seen before.

[AlexLah]

Yo Fly,

You are in Fort Knox?

Can you have a look on how much actual US Gold is in that vault there?

I know it is heavily guarded but maybe if you tell them I requested it they let you in.