Are You Worried?

[loong]

Bankrupt Britain - it could happen.

The way things are, the pound could fall a lot further than it already has. I wouldn't like to hazard a guess at how many Baht We will be getting to the Pound in 2 years time. At 50 Baht to the pound I'm managing ok, but if it gets any worse I will be struggling.

Anybody else getting worried?

The UK national debt is around 400 Billion Pounds - that's over 6000 pounds for every man woman and child, a staggering amount. What effect will these bank bailouts and guarantees have? The National Debt could get totally out of control (if it isn't already) and end up as one of the biggest sub-prime debts in the world. The dramatic falls in the share price of RBS and Lloyds will cost the taxpayer dear.

So, is the Uk heading towards insolvency? If it reaches the stage where it cannot borrow more money, what choices will there be? If it has to print more money to try to get out of this crisis, the currency could crash, meaning a lot less Baht for the pound.

I hope that my fears prove groundless.

Edited January 19, 2009 by loong

[Nongwahyay]

I would say, stop worrying about something you can´t influence, otherwise you´ll make yourself even more miserable!

Life is nothing but a never-ending series of ups and downs. Just ignore it - maybe it´ll go away...............

[Spee]

So, is the Uk heading towards insolvency?

Heading towards? The UK was heading towards it twenty years ago. The US is no different. You've heard of the King Midas touch, where everything he touched turned to gold. Well, most politicians have the King Sidam touch, where everything they touch turns to shit.

The social security program in the US, which is supposed to form anywhere from a small portion to a majority of peoples' retirement incomes, is the world's biggest Ponzi scheme. Bernie Madoff is a piker compared to the thieves in Congress and Parliament who have looted the government sponsored pension programs into bankruptcy.

All this tells me is that I have the remaining 15 or so years of my working life to figure out a better way to support myself, my loved ones in Thailand, and my planned retirement years in Thailand. The governments aren't working for you or trying to protect your interests, so you have to work for yourself and protect your own interests.

Oh, and I hate to break the news, but fluctuations in the currency rates are the least of our problems. Money management can overcome these kinds of fluctuations, but we have to have money to manage. And that money ain't comin' from the tiny trickle of the government coffers.

To the responding poster ....

Don't worry about what you can't influence??

The heck you say ....

It's like admitting you have no control over your own destiny.

[BEENTHEREDONETHAT]

Bankrupt Britain - it could happen.

The way things are, the pound could fall a lot further than it already has. I wouldn't like to hazard a guess at how many Baht We will be getting to the Pound in 2 years time. At 50 Baht to the pound I'm managing ok, but if it gets any worse I will be struggling.

Anybody else getting worried?

The UK national debt is around 400 Billion Pounds - that's over 6000 pounds for every man woman and child, a staggering amount. What effect will these bank bailouts and guarantees have? The National Debt could get totally out of control (if it isn't already) and end up as one of the biggest sub-prime debts in the world. The dramatic falls in the share price of RBS and Lloyds will cost the taxpayer dear.

So, is the Uk heading towards insolvency? If it reaches the stage where it cannot borrow more money, what choices will there be? If it has to print more money to try to get out of this crisis, the currency could crash, meaning a lot less Baht for the pound.

I hope that my fears prove groundless.

According to CIA World factbook

Reserves of foreign exchange and gold:

$57.3 billion (31 December 2007 est.)

Debt - external:

$10.45 trillion (30 June 2007)

Stock of direct foreign investment - at home:

$1.288 trillion (2007 est.)

Stock of direct foreign investment - abroad:

$1.707 trillion (2007 est.) That was 2007, with what has transpired in the last year I immagin the debt is well over 10 Trillion by now. Not sure where your 400 billion came from.

[SKORPiO]

So, is the Uk heading towards insolvency?

The social security program in the US, which is supposed to form anywhere from a small portion to a majority of peoples' retirement incomes, is the world's biggest Ponzi scheme. Bernie Madoff is a piker compared to the thieves in Congress and Parliament who have looted the government sponsored pension programs into bankruptcy.

All this tells me is that I have the remaining 15 or so years of my working life to figure out a better way to support myself, my loved ones in Thailand, and my planned retirement years in Thailand. The governments aren't working for you or trying to protect your interests, so you have to work for yourself and protect your own interests.

I'm wondering about the same thing. Im in similar situation as you except no family yet and still about 30 years until retirement. I want to retire in Thailand but who knows how things will turn out in 30 years. Quite possibly, that SS check wont be able to support me and my future wife and as you have mentioned, we have to work something out ourselves. The company Im working for here in Chicago will not have any pension plan for me at all, so SS is the only thing remaining. I am saving in my 401K but lately, it looks like crap and i have serious doubts, it will help me with retirement. So my question is, what is on your mind? Any plans you're willing to share with us?

regards, Bart.

Edited January 20, 2009 by SKORPiO

[Spee]

So, is the Uk heading towards insolvency?

The social security program in the US, which is supposed to form anywhere from a small portion to a majority of peoples' retirement incomes, is the world's biggest Ponzi scheme. Bernie Madoff is a piker compared to the thieves in Congress and Parliament who have looted the government sponsored pension programs into bankruptcy.

All this tells me is that I have the remaining 15 or so years of my working life to figure out a better way to support myself, my loved ones in Thailand, and my planned retirement years in Thailand. The governments aren't working for you or trying to protect your interests, so you have to work for yourself and protect your own interests.

The company Im working for here in Chicago will not have any pention plan for me at all, so SS is the only thing remaining. I am saving in my 401K but lately, it looks like crap and i have serious doubts, it will help me with retirement.

I'm no retirement or financial management expert, although I wouldn't agree with your implication that social security and 401k are your only options. You can certainly save your post-tax money and invest it however you like.

The 401k and equivalents are the best thing going for the time being. Anyone with access to a 401k or equivalent should be putting as much as possible into it. Despite the current market downturn, the employer contribution and the tax deferrment make it too good to pass up. The only worry with the 401k is the extremely left-leaning Congress, with ultra-socialist Barney Frank heading the House Finance Committee, have designs on appropriating all 401k savings to incorporate into the social security program. Everyone and their brother should be writing their Congressman to show them the multitude of ways that this proposed legalized theft would be wrong.

The younger people like yourself are okay because time is on your side, and you have time to prepare for retirement life without government social security handouts. Also, those already retired are okay because they will continue to collect on the Ponzi scheme because it isn't totally dead yet.

The people who have reason to be concerned are people like myself, who are stuck in the middle, having already been forced to contribute in the neighborhood of $250,000 to $300,000 to social security already, but have little of no hope of getting any of this back, much less even coming close to breaking even. Had I been allowed to invest this money privately over the last 25 years, possibly I might be a multi-millionaire many times over with no need to count on anyone for anything.

Just like the collapsed Bernie Madoff Ponzi scheme, those on the near end of the scheme got their money back and maybe some positive return, while those on the far end got little more than a blunt object up their backside. Government pension schemes are no different at present, completely bankrupt and unable to meet future commitments. Anyone who is counting on them for a significant portion of retirement income in say, 10-20 years, is simply delusional.

[britmaveric]

Thinking of buying an Aston Martin Vanquish - made a small fortune from shorting oil.

[flying]

Bankrupt Britain - it could happen.

Just curious but are you worried because your on some kind of monthly pension there in TL paid by Britain?

The only worry with the 401k is the extremely left-leaning Congress, with ultra-socialist Barney Frank heading the House Finance Committee, have designs on appropriating all 401k savings to incorporate into the social security program.

Good enough threat there for many to just pull it out now.

[mazo]

Darling warns economy could collapse if bailout fails

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/news/article....2#StartComments

[haybilly]

Bankrupt Britain - it could happen.

The way things are, the pound could fall a lot further than it already has. I wouldn't like to hazard a guess at how many Baht We will be getting to the Pound in 2 years time. At 50 Baht to the pound I'm managing ok, but if it gets any worse I will be struggling.

Anybody else getting worried?

The UK national debt is around 400 Billion Pounds - that's over 6000 pounds for every man woman and child, a staggering amount. What effect will these bank bailouts and guarantees have? The National Debt could get totally out of control (if it isn't already) and end up as one of the biggest sub-prime debts in the world. The dramatic falls in the share price of RBS and Lloyds will cost the taxpayer dear.

So, is the Uk heading towards insolvency? If it reaches the stage where it cannot borrow more money, what choices will there be? If it has to print more money to try to get out of this crisis, the currency could crash, meaning a lot less Baht for the pound.

I hope that my fears prove groundless.

Whilst I cannot confirm/deny your figures--I am in agreement with the sentiment. I, too, rely too heavily on sterling while residing in Thailand; I have even considered a return to UK where exchange rate fluctuations should affect me less--but this is far from attractive.

[ukrules]

When I first came to Thailand about 14 years ago the Baht was running at about 37 to the pound, maybe it's heading back that way right now.

The mid market rates are listed as 48.48 to the pound on xe.com.

[loong]

According to CIA World factbook

Reserves of foreign exchange and gold:

$57.3 billion (31 December 2007 est.)

Debt - external:

$10.45 trillion (30 June 2007)

Stock of direct foreign investment - at home:

$1.288 trillion (2007 est.)

Stock of direct foreign investment - abroad:

$1.707 trillion (2007 est.) That was 2007, with what has transpired in the last year I immagin the debt is well over 10 Trillion by now. Not sure where your 400 billion came from.

You are referring to the US national debt, not the UK.

Incidently it is worse than I thought apparently as yes the 400 billion figure is out of date.

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=206

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economi...-the-books.html

so 700 Billion pounds at the end of december and obviously worse now following the drop in share price of RBS and Lloyds.

Government borrowing levels are now getting unmanageable, it will get to the stage that this money has to be paid back. The only way to pay this back is by printing money with no thing to support it. Gold reserves to back up a currency are a thing of the past. Printing too much new money can result in runaway inflation and massive devaluation of the currency.

It's different in the USA as the $ is the major world currency and everybody will suffer if the $ crashes. For this reason countries like China will help support the $. But, China is already looking to establish the Yuan as the currency to trade in Asia. After all they are holding huge amounts of $ as foreign currency reserves that they dare not release or the value will crash. Eventually the $ day will be over, but we wont see that for a while yet.

The Euro is also held as a foreign currency reserve, so will not suffer as much as the pound.

[girlx]

i have to admit (knock on wood) that the recent downturn has actually been very good for me. i do freelance Information Architecture for US companies from my home office in BKK... and i charge less from here than i would charge in NY so i am a deal for them. i am so slammed with projects right now that i am not sure i can complete them all on time! let's hope it lasts! i am a very lucky gal. or maybe it's just good karma!

[Maigo6]

let's hope it lasts! i am a very lucky gal. or maybe it's just good karma!

It must be that positive attitude you have about living in Thailand rubbing off in your professional life.

[loong]

Bankrupt Britain - it could happen.

Just curious but are you worried because your on some kind of monthly pension there in TL paid by Britain?

I rent out property in UK, I have no pension. If the pound continues to drop, there will come a point where my income will not buy enough Baht to live here. That's why I'm concerned.

The value of my investments in the stock market have dropped dramatically, So not only has my income dropped in baht, I don't have the back up of other investments that I had before.

[flying]

I rent out property in UK, I have no pension. If the pound continues to drop, there will come a point where my income will not buy enough Baht to live here. That's why I'm concerned.

The value of my investments in the stock market have dropped dramatically, So not only has my income dropped in baht, I don't have the back up of other investments that I had before.

I see..Sorry to hear that

I guess now is also not a time that you can sell for any positive price either.

That is a tough spot for sure. I was assuming also that many must be on a govt stipend of some kind & wondered how they would cope.

Good Luck & I hope you properties turn around. We are seeing the same here as I am a building contractor.

[loong]

I see..Sorry to hear that

I guess now is also not a time that you can sell for any positive price either.

That is a tough spot for sure. I was assuming also that many must be on a govt stipend of some kind & wondered how they would cope.

Good Luck & I hope you properties turn around. We are seeing the same here as I am a building contractor.

Thanks...

Things are not desperate right now, but if we have another year the same as the last, who knows.

I am making a bit extra at the moment trading the markets. Hopefully the investments I have left have now bottomed out.

[geriatrickid]

Sure it will be grim for the next year or two, but if you are from the UK, surely you heard the stories of how hard life was after WWII with rationing of essentials right into the 1950's. Not to belittle your position, but I think your elders had it alot worse and they came through it ok. The USA went through abject poverty in the dirty 30's and rebounded with prosperity. Just a question of hanging on for a couple years until the cycle rights itself.

I've taken a hit, losing 15% of my retirement savings a year ago until I moved everything into fixed investments and I am going into my 2nd year of a pay freeze. hel_l, I have a few decades before I can collect any pensions but wanted to retire before I was 50. Aint gonna happen now.

I don't even know if I will have a job in 6 months time. If Pfizer can lay off over 1000 braniacs that are the heart and soul of its existence, I sure as <deleted> aint safe, especially at my salary.

One thing I learnt from my grandfather was that the only one that was going to look after you in your old age was you, so it was best to start saving at an early age. Sometimes, old folks are more forward thinking than the young folks I reckon. I'm glad I listened to him.

[flying]

Sometimes, old folks are more forward thinking than the young folks I reckon. I'm glad I listened to him.

I would say more often than sometimes

My grandfathers lived through the depression & always said the same as yours.

[twschw]

let's hope it lasts! i am a very lucky gal. or maybe it's just good karma!

It must be that positive attitude you have about living in Thailand rubbing off in your professional life.

I thought she lived in Amsterdam...no wait...New York or was it working out of Hong Kong. Where is my scorecard?

[patklang]

My parents used to say spend a quid and save a quid,now i have retired at 49 and very happy.If the pound still falls against the dollar too much then i spend a bit more per week,and my gf can go back to work if she wants and i will look after my step son.That will stop me being idle lol,and start washing,ironing,cooking again lol.

[BEENTHEREDONETHAT]

According to CIA World factbook

Reserves of foreign exchange and gold:

$57.3 billion (31 December 2007 est.)

Debt - external:

$10.45 trillion (30 June 2007)

Stock of direct foreign investment - at home:

$1.288 trillion (2007 est.)

Stock of direct foreign investment - abroad:

$1.707 trillion (2007 est.) That was 2007, with what has transpired in the last year I immagin the debt is well over 10 Trillion by now. Not sure where your 400 billion came from.

You are referring to the US national debt, not the UK.

Incidently it is worse than I thought apparently as yes the 400 billion figure is out of date.

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=206

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economi...-the-books.html

so 700 Billion pounds at the end of december and obviously worse now following the drop in share price of RBS and Lloyds.

Government borrowing levels are now getting unmanageable, it will get to the stage that this money has to be paid back. The only way to pay this back is by printing money with no thing to support it. Gold reserves to back up a currency are a thing of the past. Printing too much new money can result in runaway inflation and massive devaluation of the currency.

It's different in the USA as the $ is the major world currency and everybody will suffer if the $ crashes. For this reason countries like China will help support the $. But, China is already looking to establish the Yuan as the currency to trade in Asia. After all they are holding huge amounts of $ as foreign currency reserves that they dare not release or the value will crash. Eventually the $ day will be over, but we wont see that for a while yet.

The Euro is also held as a foreign currency reserve, so will not suffer as much as the pound.

The figures quoted at the top of the page are indeed for the UK not the US. Check CIA fact book if in doubt.

Edited January 23, 2009 by BEENTHEREDONETHAT

[teacup]

It's always a good idea to be conscious of how I spend my money, live a little below my means, don't make any big purchases, and bust my butt in work!

But it doesn't really help anything to worry.

Just me here

[473geo]

There appears to be the attitude of wait and see things will improve in time......for myself I do not moan about the rate of 48 baht to the pound....on the contrary.....I will take advantage of this exchange rate while it exists......moving a little towards holding more baht and less GBP.

[loong]

According to CIA World factbook

Reserves of foreign exchange and gold:

$57.3 billion (31 December 2007 est.)

Debt - external:

$10.45 trillion (30 June 2007)

Stock of direct foreign investment - at home:

$1.288 trillion (2007 est.)

Stock of direct foreign investment - abroad:

$1.707 trillion (2007 est.) That was 2007, with what has transpired in the last year I immagin the debt is well over 10 Trillion by now. Not sure where your 400 billion came from.

You are referring to the US national debt, not the UK.

Incidently it is worse than I thought apparently as yes the 400 billion figure is out of date.

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=206

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economi...-the-books.html

so 700 Billion pounds at the end of december and obviously worse now following the drop in share price of RBS and Lloyds.

Government borrowing levels are now getting unmanageable, it will get to the stage that this money has to be paid back. The only way to pay this back is by printing money with no thing to support it. Gold reserves to back up a currency are a thing of the past. Printing too much new money can result in runaway inflation and massive devaluation of the currency.

It's different in the USA as the $ is the major world currency and everybody will suffer if the $ crashes. For this reason countries like China will help support the $. But, China is already looking to establish the Yuan as the currency to trade in Asia. After all they are holding huge amounts of $ as foreign currency reserves that they dare not release or the value will crash. Eventually the $ day will be over, but we wont see that for a while yet.

The Euro is also held as a foreign currency reserve, so will not suffer as much as the pound.

The figures quoted at the top of the page are indeed for the UK not the US. Check CIA fact book if in doubt.

I found the CIA factbook

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/th...os/uk.html#Econ

I'm sorry but I cannot agree with that figure - The UK national debt cannot be anywhere close to 10 trillion $. 10,000 Billion $.

The Uk has a workforce of about 30 million. That would equate to 333,000 $ or 240,000 pounds per working person.

I have no idea what Debt-external means, maybe it is the total borrowings of all the companies in the UK

I will stick with the Uk government statistics for now - UK national debt 700 billion pounds

I did read somewhere(If I can find a link I will post it) that the US National debt can be expected to rise to over 10 trillion$, that's why I initially thought that your figures were for the USA. If that's right then equates to 66,000 $ per working American. And I thought that I was worried, the Americans should be Sh*****g themselves.

It seems that the Obama administration have finally accepted that the $ is overvalued re the Yuan and are looking at ways to pressure China to allow the Yuan to reach a natural level without manipulation. Of course they don't want to upset the chinese as they hold so much in US government bonds and if they decided to sell all at once, would be very bad for the $. Whatever the US government do, I don't know if it would just affect the$ against the Yuan or against all currencies - any thoughts?

[JimsKnight]

It's meaning I spend less and save more.

Like the other posters its the savers and not the spenders who will ride high on the storm waves for this one.

Ever here the story of the ant and the grasshopper?

I sure reckon the grasshoppers are gonna get swept away if they aren't careful...

[yabaaaa]

Ive been worried since the age of 10............yabaaaaaaa aged 45, probably nail me in the coffin still alive!!!!

[12DrinkMore]

so 700 Billion pounds at the end of december and obviously worse now following the drop in share price of RBS and Lloyds.

And then add in the humongous private debt, here's one estimate

http://www.transact.org.uk/page.asp?section=0001000100040022

1,400,000,000,000 (I just love all those zeros, reminds of a country in Africa, how does it go, aahh yess, ZIMBABWE)

So add on

700,000,000,000 National debt

And we get 2,100,000,000,000

Blimey, thats a lot.

Now there are 30,000,000 hard working Brits beavering away to pay it all off. :D

(Sounds like a high percentage of the work force to me, but surely the UK government never lies)

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=12

So how much does each of them have to pay off? WOWSERS, the answer is 70,000 Quid.

Unfortunately 25% of the UK workforce are only beavering away in government offices, so they don't actually produce anything.

And

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/lmsuk0109.pdf (on page 3)

states there are ONLY an ASTOUNDING 2,820,000 million actually working in production and manufacturing!!!! Wonder what on earth all the other 27,000,000 are doing? Bankers, estate agents and lawyers and general wasters I guess.

So all the beavering workers would have to donate all the average 23,000 salaries for three years to pay of the debts. Of course they can't because 25% of the work force sits in government offices and have to be paid, and then people have to eat to survive. And unfortunately our Master of Disaster Golden Brown, is STILL taking out more debts at, it seems to me, many billions everyday.

So the debts are increasing and not decreasing, so far there is no end in sight as the debt mountain shoots up through the stratosphere. Workers are being laid off and companies going under. so it ain't going to get better any time soon.

Yep, I'm worried and so should anybody else with a single GBP in their hand/pocket/bank because Golden Boys' plan is to destroy them all. He is on a mission to Save the World, which is a bit of a joke, as nobody takes him seriously anymore. Except that the issues are very serious and he seems to have forgotten the Scottish "tight arse" reputation. Although maybe it's different when spending others peoples' cash.

[12DrinkMore]

It's meaning I spend less and save more.

Like the other posters its the savers and not the spenders who will ride high on the storm waves for this one.

Ever here the story of the ant and the grasshopper?

I sure reckon the grasshoppers are gonna get swept away if they aren't careful...

Unfortunately the storm waves could very easily destroy any savings once all this cash that is being injected into the system plus a devalued GBP ignites the inflation rocket. Brown will let it rip for a while, and allow wages to inflate enabling people to pay off the GBP debts at the current low interest rates. Once that has worked then he will rapidly raise interest rates to restrict the flow of cash and try to put the inflation genie back in the bottle. If this nasty scenario does take place, then the GBP will rapidly sink even further at the rate inflation is going up (maybe double figures?), but for those in employment it is not an issue, because their wages will be spiraling up as well, they will be very happy to pay off the dwindling debts. But if you hold any GBPs at this time, then they will also dwindle into nothing.

At the moment house prices are much too high in terms of the average wage. They are coming down fast, but how about if Brown lets the inflation genie out of the bottle, and all his actions and statements point to this, and wages go up with a 15% inflation? Hey presto, inside of two years houses become more affordable and it's a "Job Well Done"! And you might ask, what if house prices rise in the mean time? Well, I don't think they will, because the banks will revert to, indeed have reverted to, requiring large deposits and smaller multiples of wages on mortgages. This will hold the price of property steady whilst everything else sky-rockets.

Yes it will be very painful and a big awakening. But without this "Big Fukcing Bang" approach I really can't see another way out of the huge mess. Not only can I not see another way, but from all the actions of the government this is exactly what Brown wants, he has reduced interest rates to nothing, has authorised the printing press and is spending incredible amounts of money.

This is not a time to be in GBPs in my opinion.

[girlx]

I thought she lived in Amsterdam...no wait...New York or was it working out of Hong Kong. rolleyes.gif Where is my scorecard? tongue.gif

since you're keeping track- i am from NY, turned down a job in amsterdam, and currently live and work in bangkok. i also just got a new job in HK which i will start in march, going back and forth.