Thai Economic Crash

[thaihome]

... judging by recent newspaper reports ...

That is one of the problems with this thread...

TH

So, the reports are untrue and the figures inaccurate, and the factory closures aren't happening then ?. Utter denial of reality.

That is one of the problems with this thread...

I take the newspaper reports and balance that against my own experience in living and doing business in Thailand. Did the newspaper report that that employment in the construction industry is still at an all time high? Despite the newspaper reports, every single one of the 10 condo project I pass on my way to work every day is still going. Do they report that there are still well over 21 million people working in non-agriculture businesses? I sit on my downtown soi after work and it is still full of people coming home from work, eating, doing a bit of shopping, and relaxing just like they have always. The traffic jam coming home every day is still the same. In my office complex they are having their monthly sidewalk sale and I can't get to the place where I always eat every day for the people busy buying shit.

So, what in your life in Thailand, do you see different today then you saw six months ago? Or do you just take what the newspapers say and get hysterical about it.

TH

[noahvail]

boring prophecies of future horror which

How about right now and almost everywhere?

British economy in recession, US economy in recession (California insolvent), European economy in recession........

Thailand has enough food to eat and a surplus to sell. There are many countries who don't have enough food.

Thailand will do relatively well. No heating and no shortage of food. A luxury.

In which state are most of you?

* denial “No way can this be true. There must be alternative explanations. This simply can’t be; I would have heard about it.”

* anger “Goddammit! Those bastards at the Fed, in the government, in media have been hiding things from me, lying, and serving their own interests at my expense. How dare they!!!

* bargaining “If I simply change a few things in my life, perhaps that will be sufficient and I won’t have to really change. I’ll use efficient light bulbs, buy a Prius, and save more each year.”

* fear “I’m going to die broke. People will come out of the cities and eat all my food and harm my family. The future is going to be unbearably bleak. I might die. I might starve. I’m not built for a world that mirrors the dystopian nightmare of Mad Max.”

* depression “Crap, we’re screwed. What’s the point? I am powerless to do anything about this. There’s nothing that any of us can do, anyway.”

* acceptance “However we got here is unimportant – it is what it is. Let’s figure out how to navigate the future with the tools and advantages we’ve got, not what we wish we had.”

Ah, yes, you know my law firm: Denial, Anger, Fear, and Depression, LLP

Ok, so now we've grieved for the loss of the economy as it's been in recent years. My wife just left her very poorly paid job in a NGO to open up a fashion store for larger ladies in Issan. Opening day today, and while we know that sales won't hold up as much on the first day, and as of 4 p.m. she's made more in gross profit than she would make in almost 2 weeks' salary. And she's happy. She says that no matter how bad things get, there will always be weddings, parties, festivals... and people will always try to dress their best. Good on her! She's found a niche market in our area, and is following a dream. Beyond acceptance is future-oriented planning that brings in more tools and advantages than we have now. We've all seen it done to one degree or another.

And if it all goes South, well... we've had some great meals from the small forest that's on her little plot of land that could be used for subsistence farming. What, me worry? Nah - but I'm also not gonna go out and borrow for a 'big bike' that I want. The rose-coloured lenses have been replaced with clear ones - and the view isn't all that bad as I read on these forums.

Edited February 26, 2009 by noahvail

[mommysboy]

... judging by recent newspaper reports ...

That is one of the problems with this thread...

TH

So, the reports are untrue and the figures inaccurate, and the factory closures aren't happening then ?. Utter denial of reality.

That is one of the problems with this thread...

I take the newspaper reports and balance that against my own experience in living and doing business in Thailand. Did the newspaper report that that employment in the construction industry is still at an all time high? Despite the newspaper reports, every single one of the 10 condo project I pass on my way to work every day is still going. Do they report that there are still well over 21 million people working in non-agriculture businesses? I sit on my downtown soi after work and it is still full of people coming home from work, eating, doing a bit of shopping, and relaxing just like they have always. The traffic jam coming home every day is still the same. In my office complex they are having their monthly sidewalk sale and I can't get to the place where I always eat every day for the people busy buying shit.

So, what in your life in Thailand, do you see different today then you saw six months ago? Or do you just take what the newspapers say and get hysterical about it.

TH

Getting hysterical ?

Well my experience is the opposite. The recession has hit me hard and early because I am involved in exports. The business people I'm involved with are gradually folding. Some of the quality businesses in Pratunam have closed and just been replaced by fly by night operations without clear investment.

Things appear normal, and I dare say people will always drive around, just as they will always eat. The things with inelastic demand suffer the least and people have to do something so they struggle on getting in to debt. I was not predicting the demise of Bangkok, merely confirming that there is a recession/depression.

And yes what about the papers and tv ? do you think they are making this stuff up then? When I watched a tv news report about a condo project being sold off at half price that was invention, was it?

The final argument is one of time lag, Thailand is just over the edge now, and it's only now that we are starting to see the physical manifestations in the real world.

I'm not sure but I believe the sector you work in gets hit last. Sorry to say, but people in your occupation are rather known for getting caught up in spin, and illusion.

[Naam]

But going back to the thread title, ie, 'on the edge'- judging by recent newspaper reports I think we can conclude that the economy has not only gone over the edge, but is hurtling downhill at an alarming speed.

I think I take agreement as read, but anyone care to counter?

i don't want to counter but ask a simple question "which economy is not going downhill?"

None of course, but that seeks to detract from confirming that the Thai economy is entering a recession ! As of a month ago a significant minority on TV argued that Thailand would not be effected. Naam, are you saying it isn't either in recession/depression?

MB, from what i recall that minority was not really significant, but that is just my personal view. judging Thailand's economic situation, especially the future (status quo is rather irrelevant as to fuzzy), is beyond my capability for the simple reason that none of us knows what the future will present. generally i'd say the outlook is very bleak and Thailand can quite obviously not decouple from the bleak global environment.

i also want to be brutally open. whether Thailand goes into recession or depression is the least of my concerns. i don't live in Thailand, i am living in my home which by coincidence is located in Thailand. as long as the hungry horde of jobless people (some gloom&doomers are predicting this) do not raid my kitchen and my larder or kill my dog for food i am not bothered. come boom or bust our domestic staff will still have excellent working conditions, very good salaries and free food all what they want and can eat. depression or recession will not drive my domestic expenditure up, i will still eat whatever food i prefer and enjoy a good bottle of wine, will not sweat because i have to save on energy by switching of the aircons and it is highly unlikely that we Farangs are kicked out after our property has been confiscated (another prediction by some gloom&doomers).

of course all afore-mentioned based on and seen from my individual perspective

[mijan24]

Moody's: Thailand 'worst hit in Asia'

Bangkok Post Feb 25, 2009

The Thai economy is expected to fall as much as -2.4% this year, after fourth-quarter 2008 figures pointed to a severe downturn in growth, according to Moody's Economy.com.

"Fourth-quarter GDP numbers suggest the country is in the running for the label, 'worst hit in Asia'," said Alaistair Chan, an associate economist in the Sydney office of Moody's Economy.com.

He said that Thai gross domestic product, down 4.3% in the fourth quarter from the same period in 2007, represented a decline in output by an "incredible" 22.3% on an annualised basis, and that government statements that the economy would post slight growth for 2009 appeared "overly optimistic".

Declines in foreign demand for key exports such as electronics, electrical goods and autos, together with a decline in agricultural prices, have hit exports severely. Tourism and consumer and investor confidence also took a hit by political instability in the fourth quarter.

"The good news is that a new government, and a semblance of stability, could encourage some tourists and foreign investors to return, although that may be difficult now that most developed countries are in recession," Mr Chan said in a research note.

"The government understands the dire state of the economy and has put forward a series of stimulus packages. The bad news is that conditions will remain weak throughout 2009. Thailand's dependence on exports will limit the extent the government can drive growth."

I found this article interesting especially where it says "The government understands the dire state of the economy" I do not doubt this at all but they are reluctant to say it in public? -This next bit I agree with also but they are being hamstrung "The good news is that a new government, and a semblance of stability"could encourage some tourists and foreign investors to return, although that may be difficult now that most developed countries are in recession," Mr Chan said in a research note.

This post is not meant red against yellow just to bring to mind that Thailand faces econommic difficulties like other countries lets hope this comes out of the closet shortly .

[thaihome]

...I'm not sure but I believe the sector you work in gets hit last. Sorry to say, but people in your occupation are rather known for getting caught up in spin, and illusion.

That's an interesting comment, what sector do you think I work in?

As you mention Pratunam, I might surmise you are in the textile export business? That has been dying in Thailand for long time and has nothing to with the value of the baht or the slowdown. That has to do with Thailand reaching the development stage where low skilled, low cost labor like textiles is not sector it can compete with the likes of China and Vietnam. Only person I know that was in that business sold out 3 years ago and retired.

Anyway, time to go home to my illusion.

TH

[bravingbangkok]

But going back to the thread title, ie, 'on the edge'- judging by recent newspaper reports I think we can conclude that the economy has not only gone over the edge, but is hurtling downhill at an alarming speed.

I think I take agreement as read, but anyone care to counter?

i don't want to counter but ask a simple question "which economy is not going downhill?"

None of course, but that seeks to detract from confirming that the Thai economy is entering a recession ! As of a month ago a significant minority on TV argued that Thailand would not be effected. Naam, are you saying it isn't either in recession/depression?

MB, from what i recall that minority was not really significant, but that is just my personal view. judging Thailand's economic situation, especially the future (status quo is rather irrelevant as to fuzzy), is beyond my capability for the simple reason that none of us knows what the future will present. generally i'd say the outlook is very bleak and Thailand can quite obviously not decouple from the bleak global environment.

i also want to be brutally open. whether Thailand goes into recession or depression is the least of my concerns. i don't live in Thailand, i am living in my home which by coincidence is located in Thailand. as long as the hungry horde of jobless people (some gloom&doomers are predicting this) do not raid my kitchen and my larder or kill my dog for food i am not bothered. come boom or bust our domestic staff will still have excellent working conditions, very good salaries and free food all what they want and can eat. depression or recession will not drive my domestic expenditure up, i will still eat whatever food i prefer and enjoy a good bottle of wine, will not sweat because i have to save on energy by switching of the aircons and it is highly unlikely that we Farangs are kicked out after our property has been confiscated (another prediction by some gloom&doomers).

of course all afore-mentioned based on and seen from my individual perspective

Could not agree more

[ray23]

Whats that old saying. It's a reccession when your neighbor is laid off a depression when you are. Of course it depends where you an your personal experience.

Some people still had job in the great depression, or opened imple evening operations. But some ended up homeless and eating in soup Kitchens. My family were migrant fruit workers followed crops an livedin a tent, they made it. Yes you can find a way. But I don't think that is the discussion or did I miss somthing.

A freind just opened a shop selling specialized motorcycle t- shirts and large shirts that are hard for farrangs to find, he is doing fine found a niche.

I wish your wife nothing but good luck Chok Dee Mak Mak as I do my friend. But some will not be able to that. I still haven't found the guy to paint my house in Udon, that is a good sign. But I know I will and i will save it for the guy who needs it.

So you live in the Land of Naam thats happens to be within Thailand, funny thats how I think of my home as well.

[mommysboy]

But going back to the thread title, ie, 'on the edge'- judging by recent newspaper reports I think we can conclude that the economy has not only gone over the edge, but is hurtling downhill at an alarming speed.

I think I take agreement as read, but anyone care to counter?

i don't want to counter but ask a simple question "which economy is not going downhill?"

None of course, but that seeks to detract from confirming that the Thai economy is entering a recession ! As of a month ago a significant minority on TV argued that Thailand would not be effected. Naam, are you saying it isn't either in recession/depression?

MB, from what i recall that minority was not really significant, but that is just my personal view. judging Thailand's economic situation, especially the future (status quo is rather irrelevant as to fuzzy), is beyond my capability for the simple reason that none of us knows what the future will present. generally i'd say the outlook is very bleak and Thailand can quite obviously not decouple from the bleak global environment.

i also want to be brutally open. whether Thailand goes into recession or depression is the least of my concerns. i don't live in Thailand, i am living in my home which by coincidence is located in Thailand. as long as the hungry horde of jobless people (some gloom&doomers are predicting this) do not raid my kitchen and my larder or kill my dog for food i am not bothered. come boom or bust our domestic staff will still have excellent working conditions, very good salaries and free food all what they want and can eat. depression or recession will not drive my domestic expenditure up, i will still eat whatever food i prefer and enjoy a good bottle of wine, will not sweat because i have to save on energy by switching of the aircons and it is highly unlikely that we Farangs are kicked out after our property has been confiscated (another prediction by some gloom&doomers).

of course all afore-mentioned based on and seen from my individual perspective

sorry, naam, so what was the answer?

[mommysboy]

...I'm not sure but I believe the sector you work in gets hit last. Sorry to say, but people in your occupation are rather known for getting caught up in spin, and illusion.

That's an interesting comment, what sector do you think I work in?

As you mention Pratunam, I might surmise you are in the textile export business? That has been dying in Thailand for long time and has nothing to with the value of the baht or the slowdown. That has to do with Thailand reaching the development stage where low skilled, low cost labor like textiles is not sector it can compete with the likes of China and Vietnam. Only person I know that was in that business sold out 3 years ago and retired.

Anyway, time to go home to my illusion.

TH

Ahh, yes as you seemed to have financial details of the condo projects mentioned then I assumed that was what you were in.

Well my business only got hit this year.

But in any case the argument is about the Thai economy not your personal circumstances. What do you do incidentally?

[mommysboy]

boring prophecies of future horror which

How about right now and almost everywhere?

British economy in recession, US economy in recession (California insolvent), European economy in recession........

Thailand has enough food to eat and a surplus to sell. There are many countries who don't have enough food.

Thailand will do relatively well. No heating and no shortage of food. A luxury.

In which state are most of you?

* denial “No way can this be true. There must be alternative explanations. This simply can’t be; I would have heard about it.”

* anger “Goddammit! Those bastards at the Fed, in the government, in media have been hiding things from me, lying, and serving their own interests at my expense. How dare they!!!

* bargaining “If I simply change a few things in my life, perhaps that will be sufficient and I won’t have to really change. I’ll use efficient light bulbs, buy a Prius, and save more each year.”

* fear “I’m going to die broke. People will come out of the cities and eat all my food and harm my family. The future is going to be unbearably bleak. I might die. I might starve. I’m not built for a world that mirrors the dystopian nightmare of Mad Max.”

* depression “Crap, we’re screwed. What’s the point? I am powerless to do anything about this. There’s nothing that any of us can do, anyway.”

* acceptance “However we got here is unimportant – it is what it is. Let’s figure out how to navigate the future with the tools and advantages we’ve got, not what we wish we had.”

Ah, yes, you know my law firm: Denial, Anger, Fear, and Depression, LLP

Ok, so now we've grieved for the loss of the economy as it's been in recent years. My wife just left her very poorly paid job in a NGO to open up a fashion store for larger ladies in Issan. Opening day today, and while we know that sales won't hold up as much on the first day, and as of 4 p.m. she's made more in gross profit than she would make in almost 2 weeks' salary. And she's happy. She says that no matter how bad things get, there will always be weddings, parties, festivals... and people will always try to dress their best. Good on her! She's found a niche market in our area, and is following a dream. Beyond acceptance is future-oriented planning that brings in more tools and advantages than we have now. We've all seen it done to one degree or another.

And if it all goes South, well... we've had some great meals from the small forest that's on her little plot of land that could be used for subsistence farming. What, me worry? Nah - but I'm also not gonna go out and borrow for a 'big bike' that I want. The rose-coloured lenses have been replaced with clear ones - and the view isn't all that bad as I read on these forums.

Nice story. Full marks to your wife. Can I remind you that Thailand has only just entered recession and it's expected to be a deep one ?, so IMHO it's a little early for the economic miracle story, but it's good that you've got your mind on tilling the land - make sure you are good and fit - hard work coming. What is it you are doing yourself ?- unemployed I guess otherwise you wouldn't be talking about financial hardship I suppose. Commiserations.

But every cloud has a silver lining. When I was doing well I had little time to do anything. Now due to a slump, I had enough free time to learn to swim last week, a major achievement at 47, and as others point out life goes on. I've also been helping my partner with her English, something I used to get ratty about but now quite enjoy. I'll probably resume my Thai studies too.

I am consumed with worries for the future at the moment, worries that are quite real, but I suppose life is not so easy sometimes.

[yabaaaa]

Wife sms'd me today told me 10 people have been laid off at her old company and the rest have ha d a 10% pay cut. Boss has gone to the bank to borrow money to struggle on........its not looking good and starting to hit home now for my wife.

[Naam]

sorry, naam, so what was the answer?

my answer was:

"judging Thailand's economic situation, especially the future (status quo is rather irrelevant as to fuzzy), is beyond my capability for the simple reason that none of us knows what the future will present. generally i'd say the outlook is very bleak and Thailand can quite obviously not decouple from the bleak global environment."

my personal bla-bla-bla was only to highlight the major reason why i was not interested to do any additional homework on Thailand's economy.

[dbrenn]

... judging by recent newspaper reports ...

That is one of the problems with this thread...

TH

I think you hit the nail on the head. The doom and gloom that we read in the newspapers might make money for the media companies, but it is generating a pessimism that is accelerating the problem. The value of the economy, and the value of the assets it contains, is totally dependent on the perception of the people who buy and sell. Think it is bad, and it will be, and vice versa.

Life goes on - OK we might not have as much as we did before, we might have to change our lifestyles and depend less on borrowed wealth, but humanity will survive.

[mommysboy]

... judging by recent newspaper reports ...

That is one of the problems with this thread...

TH

I think you hit the nail on the head. The doom and gloom that we read in the newspapers might make money for the media companies, but it is generating a pessimism that is accelerating the problem. The value of the economy, and the value of the assets it contains, is totally dependent on the perception of the people who buy and sell. Think it is bad, and it will be, and vice versa.

Life goes on - OK we might not have as much as we did before, we might have to change our lifestyles and depend less on borrowed wealth, but humanity will survive.

I agree, but the main thrust of the thread is that Thailand is (was) on the brink of a recession, and in my view has passed that point and is actually in recession.

The papers are truly awful, be interesting to know if there was this sort of media coverage in the 30's. And yes I think it is having a worsening effect.

I don't think the media has created the recession though.

[mommysboy]

sorry, naam, so what was the answer?

my answer was:

"judging Thailand's economic situation, especially the future (status quo is rather irrelevant as to fuzzy), is beyond my capability for the simple reason that none of us knows what the future will present. generally i'd say the outlook is very bleak and Thailand can quite obviously not decouple from the bleak global environment."

my personal bla-bla-bla was only to highlight the major reason why i was not interested to do any additional homework on Thailand's economy.

Ok, let's put you down as a don't know!

[kjhbigv]

In which state are most of you?

* denial "No way can this be true. There must be alternative explanations. This simply can't be; I would have heard about it."

* anger "Goddammit! Those bastards at the Fed, in the government, in media have been hiding things from me, lying, and serving their own interests at my expense. How dare they!!!

* bargaining "If I simply change a few things in my life, perhaps that will be sufficient and I won't have to really change. I'll use efficient light bulbs, buy a Prius, and save more each year."

* fear "I'm going to die broke. People will come out of the cities and eat all my food and harm my family. The future is going to be unbearably bleak. I might die. I might starve. I'm not built for a world that mirrors the dystopian nightmare of Mad Max."

* depression "Crap, we're screwed. What's the point? I am powerless to do anything about this. There's nothing that any of us can do, anyway."

* acceptance "However we got here is unimportant – it is what it is. Let's figure out how to navigate the future with the tools and advantages we've got, not what we wish we had."

I usually get through all of these on a good night thanks to this forum, rolling 24 hour news and alcohol however my wife remains oblivious (thanks to Thai Soaps) - I sometimes wonder which of us is better off!

So true.....'however my wife remains oblivious (thanks to Thai Soaps)'

Edited February 27, 2009 by kjhbigv

[AlexLah]

After acceptance comes obedience........

[Ricardo]

Anyone else think that the Thai economy is about to crash and burn? No exports, hardly any tourists, an over-valued currency!!! Everything that has made Thailand what it is today has come from foreign money, take that away and what are you left with!!!

Do you have fixed exchange rate in Thailand?

no.

Khun Naam, would you from your intergalactic viewpoint agree that it is partly-managed, and doesn't float totally freely ?

[thaihome]

The BOT readily admits to a “managed” float in order to maintain stability. The Baht market is very small in the large order of things and hence highly susceptible to fast movements, such as what was happening in 2007 when people were moving large amounts of money in to take advantage of the higher interest rates causing the baht to appreciate rabidly. The BOT instituted capital controls, which were roundly panned as the end of the Thai economy, and which promptly cut off the speculation causing the baht to stabilize and Thailand went on to enjoy the best 3 quarters in 2008 it had ever had (despite a large drop in Dec-08, 2008 exports were up over 10% from 2007).

Then the bottom dropped out of the world and here we are...

TH

[Naam]

Anyone else think that the Thai economy is about to crash and burn? No exports, hardly any tourists, an over-valued currency!!! Everything that has made Thailand what it is today has come from foreign money, take that away and what are you left with!!!

Do you have fixed exchange rate in Thailand?

no.

Khun Naam, would you from your intergalactic viewpoint agree that it is partly-managed, and doesn't float totally freely ?

yes i agree, that is what we -based on following the forex markets- assume Sir Ricardo. calling it "fixed exchange rate" would however be inappropriate.

[bonzor]

Setting up satelite. Have to wait for darkness. Using hand powered generator with full camo is hard. Communication to follow

Edited February 28, 2009 by bonzor

[bonzor]

But going back to the thread title, ie, 'on the edge'- judging by recent newspaper reports I think we can conclude that the economy has not only gone over the edge, but is hurtling downhill at an alarming speed.

I think I take agreement as read, but anyone care to counter?

i don't want to counter but ask a simple question "which economy is not going downhill?"

None of course, but that seeks to detract from confirming that the Thai economy is entering a recession ! As of a month ago a significant minority on TV argued that Thailand would not be effected. Naam, are you saying it isn't either in recession/depression?

MB, from what i recall that minority was not really significant, but that is just my personal view. judging Thailand's economic situation, especially the future (status quo is rather irrelevant as to fuzzy), is beyond my capability for the simple reason that none of us knows what the future will present. generally i'd say the outlook is very bleak and Thailand can quite obviously not decouple from the bleak global environment.

i also want to be brutally open. whether Thailand goes into recession or depression is the least of my concerns. i don't live in Thailand, i am living in my home which by coincidence is located in Thailand. as long as the hungry horde of jobless people (some gloom&doomers are predicting this) do not raid my kitchen and my larder or kill my dog for food i am not bothered. come boom or bust our domestic staff will still have excellent working conditions, very good salaries and free food all what they want and can eat. depression or recession will not drive my domestic expenditure up, i will still eat whatever food i prefer and enjoy a good bottle of wine, will not sweat because i have to save on energy by switching of the aircons and it is highly unlikely that we Farangs are kicked out after our property has been confiscated (another prediction by some gloom&doomers).

of course all afore-mentioned based on and seen from my individual perspective

I have three mins. Will be brief. Non of the above is true. You won't say it when your footman is chewing on your liver and the under groom is using the pool for rendering human fat down. For candles, for light, the better to see what bits of you they are eating. Get real. Its the end of days. Me? I'm sitting it out in a badger hole. I'll come out around 2022 after the bodies have decayed to nothing and only the released zoo animals roam the weed filled rice fields.

Edited February 28, 2009 by bonzor

[mommysboy]

Anyone else think that the Thai economy is about to crash and burn? No exports, hardly any tourists, an over-valued currency!!! Everything that has made Thailand what it is today has come from foreign money, take that away and what are you left with!!!

I expect Thailand to have its share of economic problems....as will the rest of the world with the readjustment from the dying capitalist easy credit spend now economy to a more rational use as needed economy that will be required by the coming age of scarcity. But I don't expect Thailand to have any more problems than places like the U.K. or the U.S.A. will have.

Yes, Thailand has an economy based on exports....but the value of those exports only slowly tickles down to the average Thai workers after the cream has been skimmed off by the wealthy and the foriegn factory owners. Does the average Thai benefit from those export industries? Yes he/she does, but the best part of the profits are removed first by the expatriate owners or are sent abroad by the factory managers/investors. The factory workers are at the very bottm, only feeding on the leftovers.

As for tourisim, it is a doubtful benefit to Thaiand. Yes it brings in money, but the cost on Thai society is heavy. For one thing, beaches and tourist attractions are turned into over-priced tourist traps with insufficient infrastructure (i.e. water, sewage, etc.) Pattaya is a good example....Phuket is another. In the long run tourisim costs the host country more than it benefits that country.

As for your rediculous statement:

Everything that has made Thailand what it is today has come from foreign money, take that away and what are you left with!!!

I will tell you what you will be left with. A Thai society based on farming, fishing, and local Thai businesses. Yes, it will be hard to get to that point, and there will be a lot of problems to get there, but it will result in an economy based on Thailand and Thai society...not foriegners.

Bottom line...yes Thailand will suffer disruption in the coming readjustment of economic values...but so will the so-called developed countries. I predicit Thailand will come through the bad times better than Europe or the U.S.A.

"But I don't expect Thailand to have any more problems than places like the U.K. or the U.S.A. will have. "

These places are entering deep recession. Rather undermined your intelligent posting.

Also why do you think Thailand will come through better, is it the stunning work rate, great reputation, invention of the people, supreme economic strategy. Go on ... surprise us.

[corkman]

But every cloud has a silver lining. When I was doing well I had little time to do anything. Now due to a slump, I had enough free time to learn to swim last week, a major achievement at 47, and as others point out life goes on. I've also been helping my partner with her English, something I used to get ratty about but now quite enjoy. I'll probably resume my Thai studies too.

I am consumed with worries for the future at the moment, worries that are quite real, but I suppose life is not so easy sometimes.

A conseratively optimistic "the cup is half full" type post - and the right mindset for the moment in my view. Whilst I myself am out of work, my (thai) wife is working. Ok, I'm not living in Thailand, but the sentiment holds true. I'm really enjoying my free time, tkaing time to try and relax and enjoy some of th pleasures in life that I have heretofore been missing out on...... my wifes English is good > but I have been spending alot of time with my baby daughter where previsouly she got to see me for 1 hour a day...... and I am a happier, more ocntent person for it! Like you, there were times when I felt quite ratty; dealing with a toddler after a 10 or 12 hour day putting up with BS at the office.......

Similarly, like you, I am consumed with worries and concerns..... but far worse fate has befallen the human race..... my grandparents lived through World War 2, my father lived through subsequent economic depressions - a "senior" friend of mine served 2 tours of duty in Vietnam during which time he lost both his best friends (blown to bits in ront of him), his son committed suicide, and his wife left him.......

So despite my worries, life will go on...... and I am reminded of 3 well known versus:

1. The so called "serinity" prayer:

God grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change;

courage to change the things I can;

and wisdom to know the difference.

2. "Nemo mortalium omnibus horis sapit" - no man is at all times wise.

3. Alfred Lord Tennyson:

"Though much is taken, much abides,

and though we are not now that strength which in old days

moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are:

one equal temper of heroic hearts

made weak by time and fate but strong in will

to strive, to seek, to find but not to yield."

Life is not easy > life will not be easy > not here, there, or any where...... for most of us there is no rock to hide under, this global crisis will effect us all. Whether it is the lowly Isaan labourer looking for a job, or the expat who has his job axed, or the smug high-flyer retiree that gets mugged or his house burgled by that lowly (desperate) Isaan labourer....... or whether you are just the jam in between..... somehow, somewhere, you will be effected and how well you will weather it says as much about you are a person, as it does about your financial sucurity...... so, chin up > shoulders back > and have a bit of humility and fortitude in the face of so called 'impending doom' and for those who who feel immune to it all maybe you ought to stand back and evaluate your own position and at least show a little appreaciate for those of use who are struggling to remain positive when there appears very little to be positive about.......

Edited March 11, 2009 by corkman

[Chaimai]

I have three mins. Will be brief. Non of the above is true. You won't say it when your footman is chewing on your liver and the under groom is using the pool for rendering human fat down. For candles, for light, the better to see what bits of you they are eating. Get real. Its the end of days. Me? I'm sitting it out in a badger hole. I'll come out around 2022 after the bodies have decayed to nothing and only the released zoo animals roam the weed filled rice fields.

[lannarebirth]

But every cloud has a silver lining. When I was doing well I had little time to do anything. Now due to a slump, I had enough free time to learn to swim last week, a major achievement at 47, and as others point out life goes on. I've also been helping my partner with her English, something I used to get ratty about but now quite enjoy. I'll probably resume my Thai studies too.

I am consumed with worries for the future at the moment, worries that are quite real, but I suppose life is not so easy sometimes.

A conseratively optimistic "the cup is half full" type post - and the right mindset for the moment in my view. Whilst I myself am out of work, my (thai) wife is working. Ok, I'm not living in Thailand, but the sentiment holds true. I'm really enjoying my free time, tkaing time to try and relax and enjoy some of th pleasures in life that I have heretofore been missing out on...... my wifes English is good > but I have been spending alot of time with my baby daughter where previsouly she got to see me for 1 hour a day...... and I am a happier, more ocntent person for it! Like you, there were times when I felt quite ratty; dealing with a toddler after a 10 or 12 hour day putting up with BS at the office.......

Similarly, like you, I am consumed with worries and concerns..... but far worse fate has befallen the human race..... my grandparents lived through World War 2, my father lived through subsequent economic depressions - a "senior" friend of mine served 2 tours of duty in Vietnam during which time he lost both his best friends (blown to bits in ront of him), his son committed suicide, and his wife left him.......

So despite my worries, life will go on...... and I am reminded of 3 well known versus:

1. The so called "serinity" prayer:

God grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change;

courage to change the things I can;

and wisdom to know the difference.

2. "Nemo mortalium omnibus horis sapit" - no man is at all times wise.

3. Alfred Lord Tennyson:

"Though much is taken, much abides,

and though we are not now that strength which in old days

moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are:

one equal temper of heroic hearts

made weak by time and fate but strong in will

to strive, to seek, to find but not to yield."

Life is not easy > life will not be easy > not here, there, or any where...... for most of us there is no rock to hide under, this global crisis will effect us all. Whether it is the lowly Isaan labourer looking for a job, or the expat who has his job axed, or the smug high-flyer retiree that gets mugged or his house burgled by that lowly (desperate) Isaan labourer....... or whether you are just the jam in between..... somehow, somewhere, you will be effected and how well you will weather it says as much about you are a person, as it does about your financial sucurity...... so, chin up > shoulders back > and have a bit of humility and fortitude in the face of so called 'impending doom' and for those who who feel immune to it all maybe you ought to stand back and evaluate your own position and at least show a little appreaciate for those of use who are struggling to remain positive when there appears very little to be positive about.......

Both good posts, thanks. No one is "immune to it all", or even most of it.

[Chaimai]

1. The so called "serinity" prayer:

God grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change;

courage to change the things I can;

and wisdom to know the difference.

Some wise words in the middle of that post

[xbusman]

This reminds me of the pool of humans who in the face of a class five hurricane plan their first hurricane with a party. About an hour in, with the roof lifting, the wind wailing like a freight train in you living room, there are mailboxes and dead animals being hurled against the home at over 100 mph, that it dawns on them that this is hel_l incarnate. Their very survival is at stake. The parties get real quiet, and the realization that the worse is yet to come sinks in. All the laughter dies down, and people grow up in a hurry. After it passes, the world looks different, perhaps forever. I know it did for the depression generation.

What is coming financially is going to be like a hurricane. Fun to speculate, lots of people think their house is strong enough, but its going to be terrifying and miserable for everyone in the path of the storm, and everyone is in the path of this storm.

So get busy putting plywood up, make sure your batteries are fresh and there is plenty of fresh water. There will be nothing good about the devastation wrought by the greedy. We will survive, but the landscape is going to look different on the other side for all the survivors. This is however, our only life, I like the people that smile in adversity, work harder, stay focused on whats important. Maybe one of the reasons I like Thailand so much.

[corkman]

I like the people that smile in adversity, work harder, stay focused on whats important. Maybe one of the reasons I like Thailand so much.

Stay focused on whats important > Like taking out a 40yr mortgage on a Hilux Tiger, when your living in a shack with no glass in the windows and a corrigated tin roof & door.... LOL.... ..... just kidding, but alot less of that will be going on......

Jokes aside, a good post, and a point that is well made and well received........ I have a modest little house up in Isaan on 2 rai of land..... and another 7 rai down the road - all bought and paid for....... I am quite tempted to sell my house here and grab what little equity is left, add that to my modest savings, and bugger off to Thailand indefinitely > do a bit of subsistance farming etc....... as I share your sentiment regardin people that "smile in adversity, work harder, stay focused on whats important"...... similarly, it is probably the main reason why I like Thailand so much! Unfortunately, that prospect is a little bit beyond "feasbile" for me.........