Pensions Could Defaultl

[misterman21]

A snippet from a GEAB report

<H3 class=access>The risk of sudden collapse of all capital-based pension systems </H3>Finally, among the various consequences of the crisis for dozens of millions of people in the US, Canada, UK, Japan, Netherlands and Denmark in particular (3), there is the fact that, from the end of the year 2008 onward, news about major losses on the part of the organizations in charge of managing the financial assets supposed to finance pensions will multiply. The OECD anticipates that pension funds will lose 4,000 billion USD in 2008 only (4). In the Netherlands (5) as well as in the United Kingdom (6), monitoring organizations recently blew the whistle asking for an emergency contribution reappraisal and a State intervention. In the United States, growing numbers of announcements call for contribution increases and benefit reductions (7), knowing that it is only in a few weeks time that most of these funds will start calculating their total losses (8). Most of them are still deluding themselves about their capacity to build up again their capital after the markets turn around. In March 2009, when pension fund managers, pensioners and governments will become simultaneously aware of the fact that the crisis is there to last, that it coincides with the « baby-boomer » generation’s age of retirement and that the markets will not resume their 2007 levels until many long years (9), chaos will flood this sector and governments will reach the moment when they will be compelled to nationalize all these funds. And Argentina, who took this decision a few months ago already, will appear a pioneer.

Another step towards marxist type of socialism (communism) - or not??

Edited January 24, 2009 by misterman21

[cclub75]

In March 2009, when pension fund managers, pensioners and governments will become simultaneously aware of the fact that the crisis is there to last, that it coincides with the « baby-boomer » generation’s age of retirement and that the markets will not resume their 2007 levels until many long years (9), chaos will flood this sector and governments will reach the moment when they will be compelled to nationalize all these funds. And Argentina, who took this decision a few months ago already, will appear a pioneer.

Why "could" ? They will.

And it has started already.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com...b-explodes.html

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com...er-pension.html

And indeed, the subject is way too explosive... and the politicians can't let millions of people starving... So they will have only 2 solutions :

-nationalizations

-and... inflation (to pay these mountains of liabilities)

But watch out, it would be a mistake to think that the pensions based on taxes (like France) are going to perform any better. Again we have mountains of liabilities non provisioned.

The pensions system is France is nothing more than a Big Madoff Fund, AKA a ponzzi scheme (the new people getting in are paying for the people getting out, with the hope, that in the future other people will pay for them etc.).

The system is so idiotic, against demography you just can't defeat demography, than even a highschooler should understand it.

But no, all the people are leftists, with nothing in their brain, a part liquid shit. They are like members of a sect, brainwhashed, who believe that money is... a right. Growing on trees, for eternity.

Anyway. We just can't deal with the huge amounts that were promised everywhere in the West, and this is precisely why inflation will follow.

They will pay our pensions, but with... toilet paper.

Edited January 24, 2009 by cclub75

[eggomaniac]

In March 2009, when pension fund managers, pensioners and governments will become simultaneously aware of the fact that the crisis is there to last, that it coincides with the « baby-boomer » generation's age of retirement and that the markets will not resume their 2007 levels until many long years (9), chaos will flood this sector and governments will reach the moment when they will be compelled to nationalize all these funds. And Argentina, who took this decision a few months ago already, will appear a pioneer.

Why "could" ? They will.

-nationalizations

The pensions system is France is nothing more than a Big Madoff Fund, AKA a ponzzi scheme (the new people getting in are paying for the people getting out, with the hope, that in the future other people will pay for them etc.).

The system is so idiotic, against demography you just can't defeat demography, than even a highschooler should understand it.

Anyway. We just can't deal with the huge amounts that were promised everywhere in the West, and this is precisely why inflation will follow.

They will pay our pensions, but with... toilet paper.

This is a World issue, therefore a Thai issue. Many Posters have stated that their Income no longer matches the Thai Visa requirements. Nationalism goes hand in hand in with protectionism, meaning visa restrictions will get even stiffer.

One economist, who happens to be Russian, has predicted America will break into 9 nations. 30 States cannot meet their payrolls and America is $53 trillion in the hole. 'Google I O U S A.

Thailand proper, not expat Thailand, will whether the storm better than many countries.

On top of what the OP is saying, I have been predicting a credit card companies collapse in 2009, which will make the mortgage crisis look like a picnic. Can you imagine Mastercard and Visa lining up for bail outs?

They HAVE to price control credit card interest rates - ratchet them down by 1% per month for the next 2 years. Make ANY lending above twice prime illegal. LET organised crime handle loan sharking and usury, instead of government backed financial institutions.

Put WAGE controls on executives' salaries, base plus bonuses - tied to performance.

The World needs Fair Trade!!! I call it Fair World.

It is NOT free economics to let pigs run through the troughs and ruin the world's stability, it is wild economics that allows this.

[samuibeachcomber]

I really dont think there will be any pensions being paid that will sustain anyones retirement,and i dont think inflation in the future will pay much of these accumulating govt. debts.and will there be enough people working and receiving inflationary wages to pay back(their taxes) the indebtedness of countries around the globe.

It would have been better to have allowed every business to go bankrupt and start again,and in the case of the banks the govt. could have just gauranteed depositers savings.

But i wonder if this whole global bailout is not just some scheme for govts. and big business to control our lives more.When local populations have no more savings they will be easier to control.

[flying]

I really dont think there will be any pensions being paid that will sustain anyones retirement,and i dont think inflation in the future will pay much of these accumulating govt. debts.and will there be enough people working and receiving inflationary wages to pay back(their taxes) the indebtedness of countries around the globe.

It would have been better to have allowed every business to go bankrupt and start again,and in the case of the banks the govt. could have just gauranteed depositers savings.

But i wonder if this whole global bailout is not just some scheme for govts. and big business to control our lives more.When local populations have no more savings they will be easier to control.

Back when all this started I wrote my congressman/woman & said NO WAY no bail out.

They surprised me & agreed the 1st round & voted no.

Then on the 2nd round the prez elec & the old prez & the runner up all cried you better say yes or else you do not even want to know.

Even LaoPo.....What ever happened to him? Chastised me for saying no bail out let the chips fall where they may.

Now look tons of dough later & are we better or worse? You need no financial education to see stupidity in motion.

So I agree with you 100% it would have been better to let it fall like it should but we obviously had something threat wise being waged behind the scenes.

Maybe war? Due to our fraud paper? Who knows who cares they have screwed the pooch beyond repair this time.

Pensions? Yup & wait till the labor unions all find out their $$$ is long gone.

Good Night it is going to get so ugly before it gets better.

Lastly what you say about a govt scheme? Totally possible at this point I do not count anything as unlikely. I always said if the govt said look at this hand ...you have to wonder what the other hand was doing. Up till now I didn't really give a hoot. I figured I was not really a part of it. But now they are pulling us all in. Not just us as in USA but us as in all of us.

[AlexLah]

Good!

Finally some of you start to see things and hopefully realise that this excersise is meant to keep you in fear.

Next is that they will offer a solution, just wait for it.

The question is: What are you going to do?

Don't worry, they know already as they control both sides of the game.

[flying]

The question is: What are you going to do?

Don't worry, they know already as they control both sides of the game.

"You cannot invade the mainland United States.

There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass."

- Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto

(Japanese Navy)

You know why he said that?

This goes for enemies from without & within

[samuibeachcomber]

The question is: What are you going to do?

Don't worry, they know already as they control both sides of the game.

"You cannot invade the mainland United States.

There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass."

- Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto

(Japanese Navy)

You know why he said that?

This goes for enemies from without & within

yes the right to bear arms in the USA would make a govt. move more difficult.............but easy way poison the water supply include in it a passive making drug...........would be easy.I do believe the USA will fall from within,not from an outside force.

[12DrinkMore]

This is all very galling because the risk has been known for many years.

The governments should stop all defined benefit plans (both public service and private) and move to defined contributions. And they should offer non-taxed saving schemes where the money is not accessible until retirement and cannot be used as security for any purchase, house, car, holiday or whatever.

It is even more galling because people like me, realising this and have spent their whole lives been tight arsed gits and saving as much as possible, are now also in the crap because deposit rates are way down and the profligate majority are indirectly taking us to the cleaners.

[12DrinkMore]

...but easy way poison the water supply include in it a passive making drug.......

They already have the delivery channels available.

Free supersized BigMacs delivered to your door 24/7 and endless television.

:D :D

Edited January 24, 2009 by 12DrinkMore

[samuibeachcomber]

This is all very galling because the risk has been known for many years.

The governments should stop all defined benefit plans (both public service and private) and move to defined contributions. And they should offer non-taxed saving schemes where the money is not accessible until retirement and cannot be used as security for any purchase, house, car, holiday or whatever.

It is even more galling because people like me, realising this and have spent their whole lives been tight arsed gits and saving as much as possible, are now also in the crap because deposit rates are way down and the profligate majority are indirectly taking us to the cleaners.

i think its all too late,firstly there's no more trust for politicians and financial authorities any longer.and as we are seeing by the bailout,they dont care about the public,they dont want us independant,they want to control us.That is big govt. in hand with big business,in hand with the military.

[samuibeachcomber]

can you imagine anyone today being prepared to sink a portion of their wages into a retirement fund thy could not access for say 30 years.as i said all trust in the authorities has been blown.

[chiang mai]

I'm all in favor of planning and contingency but at what point do you all draw the line and say enough is enough. Certainly the pension funds could default and indeed a meteor could destroy the planet, but until it becomes apparent that those things are definitely going to happen, folks should relax a little and stop worrying about things that could happen at some point in the future. Otherwise, what's the point of living.

[mazo]

The question is: What are you going to do?

Don't worry, they know already as they control both sides of the game.

"You cannot invade the mainland United States.

There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass."

- Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto

(Japanese Navy)

You know why he said that?

This goes for enemies from without & within

yes the right to bear arms in the USA would make a govt. move more difficult.............but easy way poison the water supply include in it a passive making drug...........would be easy.I do believe the USA will fall from within,not from an outside force.

Does Bushes patriot act not veto the right to carry arms in a national crisis ?.

[Cobalt60]

Civil unrest ?..Lies, Violence, Famine, and Diseases...Four Horsemen of the apocalypse due along soon.?

Edited January 24, 2009 by Cobalt60

[samuibeachcomber]

I'm all in favor of planning and contingency but at what point do you all draw the line and say enough is enough. Certainly the pension funds could default and indeed a meteor could destroy the planet, but until it becomes apparent that those things are definitely going to happen, folks should relax a little and stop worrying about things that could happen at some point in the future. Otherwise, what's the point of living.

normaly i would agree with you,but i think today people are waking up to whats going on,and in the next 12 months i think you will see a lot of angry people demonstrating which will need to be controlled by govts.

Also i think a lot of people will begin to be very disappointed with Obama when they realise he cant do the things he said he would.To live in any foreign country if you're not working you need money, and if that money evaporates due to inflation,and you cannot meet,for example,thai immigration requirements(financially)thats when the shit hits the fan,and if you have a thai family,well what more can i say.In the past recessions have come and gone,but i dont think this one will,there are other forces at work here.

[AlexLah]

Ok, let me give you an example of brainwashing (Propaganda).

Or, the solution they offer.

Remember: terrorrist terror terrorist, terror, terror, terror,terror, terrorist, terrosrist, terror,terrorrist terror terrorist, terror, terror, terror,terror, terrorist, terrosrist, terror.

Hey Flying, I did not know you have yer own YouTube channel.

Go here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kj5XUnvhBOY...re=channel_page

Get ready all, as you might need some of this:

[noahvail]

The question is: What are you going to do?

Don't worry, they know already as they control both sides of the game.

"You cannot invade the mainland United States.

There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass."

- Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto

(Japanese Navy)

You know why he said that?

This goes for enemies from without & within

yes the right to bear arms in the USA would make a govt. move more difficult.............but easy way poison the water supply include in it a passive making drug...........would be easy.I do believe the USA will fall from within,not from an outside force.

Perhaps. But one of the nasty things about history is that it repeats itself. Read http://www.historynet.com/the-bonus-army-w...-washington.htm about what Hoover and McArthur did to the WWI troops trying to collect their legislated bonuses - in 1932.

[12DrinkMore]

And so it carries on

Call for state bailout of ailing UK pension funds after deficit climbs to £194.5bn

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/pen...icle5576415.ece

[12DrinkMore]

Also i think a lot of people will begin to be very disappointed with Obama when they realise he cant do the things he said he would.To live in any foreign country if you're not working you need money, and if that money evaporates due to inflation,and you cannot meet,for example,thai immigration requirements(financially)thats when the shit hits the fan,and if you have a thai family,well what more can i say.In the past recessions have come and gone,but i dont think this one will,there are other forces at work here.

Not just Americans. There are 1,000,000 Brits living abroad relying on the wasted GBP and destroyed interest. How many will have to return to the UK? Does it matter to Brown? Maybe not, just 2% of the potential voters and just oldies at that.

Nobody has confronted these issues before, ever. This is globalisation and unfortunately the elected politicians of the Faranglands only think about short term, local voter support.

[cclub75]

And so it carries on

Call for state bailout of ailing UK pension funds after deficit climbs to £194.5bn

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/pen...icle5576415.ece

This is why Chiang Mai is wrong. It's not a possibility, in the future, like a meteor... It is already happening.

First the calls for "bailout"... But once we will have to bailout everything... then it's a nationalization de facto.

I would like to repeat the key point : demography.

It's alchemy to pretend that pensions funds (US or the french model) can be sustainable.

Less and less people working on one hand, more and more old people on the other (and living longer).

Again, you can turn the equation in all the ways... It can not work.

It's ponzzi, it's Madoff.

However, and here I join Chiang Mai... a meteor could solve our problems : massive reduction... of the population : Soylent Green...

[PeaceBlondie]

Some national pensions are already indexed for inflation (US military, civilians, SSA, veterans, etc.), so inflation will not bail out hose pensions, most of which are unfunded.

[12DrinkMore]

Some national pensions are already indexed for inflation (US military, civilians, SSA, veterans, etc.), so inflation will not bail out hose pensions, most of which are unfunded.

So, indeed are quite a few of the private sector schemes. But what the hel_l, nationalise them, bail them out, bail out everything, absolutely no problem, the governments will simply print more cash.....

After flushing a trillion Dollars or Pounds down the pan, what's a few more billion? A mere drop in the tsunami of National Debt rushing up to wipe us all out.

It is now getting to the point where I doubt that anybody "up at the top" can relate to the figures at any level. I personally can relate to 50 baht and 1,000 Baht Baht because I can count to that without taking more than a few minutes. But 100,000 Baht even 10,000,000 Baht are still OK because it's possibly around the sort of figure I will spend over the rest of my life.

Now take 1,000,000,000 Dollars or Pounds? Or take this one 1,000,000,000,000 in anything. Or take the 40,000,000,000,000 odd Dollars (nobody knows!) which are currently being "played with" on the unregulated financial markets. The figures become sort of distant, meaningless.

That's 40 TRILLION, HEY! Wowsers, there are only like some insignificant 2 BILLION of US HUMAN BEANS on the planet.

So, for EVERY SINGLE HUMAN walking, crawling, pissing, farting on the surface of the globe, the whacko financial lot are gambling with 20,000 Dollars in unregulated and incomprehensible derivatives and Credit default Swaps and such things.

I cannot get my head around this, maybe my calculations are wrong, but I've checked three times.....

Is there any hope left?

[GuestHouse]

can you imagine anyone today being prepared to sink a portion of their wages into a retirement fund thy could not access for say 30 years.as i said all trust in the authorities has been blown.

I need not imagine, I received the annual report for my employer's Pension Schemes last month. The defined benefits scheme (now closed to new members) is managed to duck much of the stock market plunge as a direct result of following UK pension regulations that stipulate the risk profile v age profile of members, as a closed scheme with a generally older membership it is very lightly weighted in the stock market.

The defined contribution scheme (which replaced the defined benefits scheme for new employees) is also doing rather well, the funds are down of course but new contributions are buying stock at very cheap prices, take up in the scheme has been relatively high with 78% of new employees joining the scheme within one year of joining the company - undoubtedly encouraged by generous employer contributions.

I contrast this with two guys I'm working with, both long term employees neither joined the pension scheme during the 20 or more years they have worked with the company. One is in is late 60s, still working because he can't afford to retire, the other is in his mid fifties and has no retirement savings.

Chicken Licken Headlines might grab our attention, and some relish peddling doom and despondency, their speculation wilder than that they decry. At the end of the day there is only one certainty, if you do not save for your retirement you are heading for a miserable old age. Right now today that miserable old age has not been dished out to many people who saved in pension schemes.

[GuestHouse]

I have heard these predictions, or their like before, most often from people who have not saved for their old age. Perhaps they feel that by sheer force of will the can cause pension plans to collapse and force others into their own predicament.

[12DrinkMore]

I have heard these predictions, or their like before, most often from people who have not saved for their old age. Perhaps they feel that by sheer force of will the can cause pension plans to collapse and force others into their own predicament.

Well come on then, give us some optimism.

How on earth is my UK National Pension scheme going to fork out 90 quid/week inflation proofed for the rest of my life based on the contributions of an ever diminishing work force in relation to the number of pensioners?

And how on earth can I expect my contracted out company pension scheme pay out my defined benefits (YEAH!), currently projected to increase at some 6% per year or the rate rate of inflation, whichever is the greater, to finance this obligation?

And how can 25% of the UK work force currently qualifying for gilt edge gold plated inflation proofed public service pensions expect the rest of the tax payers to finance this?

The whole pension business is a time bomb just about to explode.

And I am one of the ones who have tried to save to achieve independence of any pension, from which, if I receive anything, I will regard as a major unexpected bonus.

[GuestHouse]

The UK state pension will not increase with inflation (or at least not the real inflation rate) it shall however continue to be supplemented by a growing number of means tested benefits - If you have your own funds you will not get the benefits. (There is a problem with an aging population, but we should note the contribution of large numbers of young migrant workers to the national coffers)

Non of that is an argument against contribution to a private or company pension, quite the contrary.

You'll need to talk to the trustees of your pension fund regarding the health of your company pension - You ask for optimism, my own is well funded, I'm optimistic.

25% of the UK workforce are not entitled to receive public service pensions, though I'm sure the government would be happy for you to believe that as it presses on with its campaign of spite and envy in its efforts to raise public opinion against the pension rights that are written into the contracts of employment of public sector workers.

I'm optimistic, the economy is in the doldrums, but these things pass, the markets and investments will recover and the economy will once again grow.

Thread after thread here on TV is predicting doom a year ago TV members where rejoicing over the death of the US$ with streams of 'Get out of Dollar' threads. Before that we had doom and despondency over the Euro, now it's the Pound that the desk top pundits are ragging.

What we've actually had is a very high swing on the £ and now things are going back to what they were - Six months of economic problems is not the end of the British economy, or anyone's pensions.

[GuestHouse]

A point to note on demography is that as the population of older citizens grows, so too does the Grey Vote. The issue then becomes not so much of can we afford pensions rather in what areas can we make spending cuts in order to finances the wishes of the majority vote.

I'd offer up cutting back on fighting other people's wars, but I suspect there will be a rather lively debate on moving spending to follow the vote.

[flying]

I'm optimistic, the economy is in the doldrums, but these things pass, the markets and investments will recover and the economy will once again grow.

Thread after thread here on TV is predicting doom a year ago TV members where rejoicing over the death of the US$ with streams of 'Get out of Dollar' threads. Before that we had doom and despondency over the Euro, now it's the Pound that the desk top pundits are ragging.

Glad to hear that & to tell you the truth I am neither optimistic nor pessimistic

I have always been a "It is what it is type"

Am I a bit pissed that others mess has spilled into my self directed life? Yeah I am

As for the 2nd statement above I have to disagree.

They were actually right the USD did collapse & may collapse a whole lot more. They just had the reaction to it wrong when they said get out of the dollar.

They did not realize that after it started to collapse that the rest of the countries that took part in the same financial stupidity would also start to fall.

The knee jerk reaction to that seems to be to run to the bully that had a big hand in starting it. They all feel the big guy will be the last to fall...They are probably right this time. But it does not change the fact that he is in fact falling.

[flying]

Hey Flying, I did not know you have yer own YouTube channel.

Funny

That is basically what is termed a good ole boy.

We dont have any here. They are a bit scary aren't they?

But if you want to see how crazy it can be look at what just this 1 sixty five year old had stashed in his rent a space.

http://www.king5.com/topstories/stories/NW...J.20858484.html

Now this is one unorganized fellow