Financial Crisis

[samuibeachcomber]

I think its time to go back to the farmhouse,and hunker down(back to the future)city living could become grim ,although i would be loath to leave Samui.

[12DrinkMore]

Ireland ‘could default on debt’

But at least they are already taking the correct measures

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle5653950.ece

Brian Cowen has announced plans to slash the Irish government’s public spending bill by €2 billion, after weeks of negotiations with union leaders collapsed.

Will we see Brown taking these measures? I guess not, he has only ever managed to increase his budget deficit every year.

And the Irish have the Euro, so they cannot simply print more of them to inflate their their debts away.

[samuibeachcomber]

should never have started the bailouts in the first place,to banks,and industry(sink or swim).once you start down this path its hard to stop.A bit like having a relationship with a thai lady and her family,once you start to give its hard to stop and get off the roller coaster.

All this money could have gone onto social welfare payments,re training for successful industries for the future like the environment businesses,all the high flyers in banking/finance would have been cut off at the kneecaps(no more huge payouts to these criminals)new banks would have come into play at the same time new stringent regulations put into place to stop it happening again.

A clean up mentality could have taken hold,clean up pollies expense sheets,trim fraudelent welfare payments,make payments just to the needy,balance the out of workers for over 6 months with making them commit to re training programmes.

[midas]

But at least they are already taking the correct measures

And this passage from Businessweek suggests Switzerland could be next

which I hadnt thought about before ?

" The biggest dangers are for the UK and Switzerland. These countries are major financial intermediaries with big external debts. What’s more, they are outside the major currency blocs, with debt denominated in foreign currencies. That means if their currency starts to devalue, their debts will become more and more onerous.

And now we are in very tricky waters, which are looking uncomfortably like the Great Depression. The major players are the U.S., the Eurozone, Japan, and China. The question is: Will they act collectively, or will they engage beggar-thy neighbor policies? " ( We know that answer already dont we ? )

[12DrinkMore]

I have no idea why you wake up so early.

early bird catches the worm

No hurry, there is no shortage of worms in the financial world! More than enough for all! :D

[meom]

FEARS are mounting that Ireland could default on its soaring national debt pile, amid continuing worries about its troubled banking sector.

The cost of insuring Irish debt hit 350 basis points on Friday, meaning that for every £100 of debt it would cost £3.50 to insure against default. A year ago it would have cost 10p to insure every £100 of Irish debt.

It would be interesting to know which parties have issued insurance against default.

[midas]

This is a question for anyone but I am sure Naam would know the answer to this one.............

After my postjust now I just realised how that passage from Businessweek doesnt make sense ?:

" The biggest dangers are for the UK and Switzerland. These countries are major financial intermediaries with big external debts. What’s more, they are outside the major currency blocs, with debt denominated in foreign currencies. That means if their currency starts to devalue, their debts will become more and more onerous.

I just remembered the Swiss Franc is at least backed by gold and does Switzerland have " big external debts " ??

Edited February 15, 2009 by midas

[BEENTHEREDONETHAT]

It is just a matter of time before there is a serious war somewhere in the world. War has a tendency to take peoples minds off how much the politicians have screwed up and it also tends to provide jobs and reduce the population. Get the public mind off the economy.

Unfortunately it increases the debt to support the war, but hey debt is something for the future to worry about so charge away. No one seems to notice that the future is now.

[flying]

dont know if this was posted?

Failure to save East Europe will lead to worldwide meltdown

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment...e-meltdown.html

This site comes up with a lot of editorials doesn't it? I see it often linked on other forums I read.

PS:

We are nearing the point where the IMF may have to print money for the world, using arcane powers to issue Special Drawing Rights.

Is this possibly a reason in itself?

Edited February 15, 2009 by flying

[12DrinkMore]

I just remembered the Swiss Franc is at least backed by gold and does Switzerland have " big external debts " ??

There is currently no currency backed by gold, the Swiss voted the gold standard away in 1999, big mistake?

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html...757C0A96F958260

And as regards debt, well read this

http://www.swissinfo.org/eng/specials/fina...27000&ty=st

This Swiss are much more attuned to what is going on, and through their democratic process, can call a referendum on major issues, leading to very conservative policies, aimed at long term improvements.

Will Brown ask the British population what they want? Does he listen? Has he ever listened? Nope, he force feeds his bailouts down our throats.

"Brown the saviour of the world, and Big Nanny knows what is best, so be brave children, open your mouths and take the pills and drop your pants so he can shaft you at the same time"

[midas]

Failure to save East Europe will lead to worldwide meltdown

I wonder if it really time to take the money out of the bank ?

This is like watching the Tom Cruise movie " War of the Worlds " - its horrible

[samuibeachcomber]

Failure to save East Europe will lead to worldwide meltdown

I wonder if it really time to take the money out of the bank ?

This is like watching the Tom Cruise movie " War of the Worlds " - its horrible

yes needs to be taken out before they stop letting people take out their money,but the same question arises"where to put it"

[AlexLah]

I am getting a bit tired while reading through "The Agenda"

All the time we focus on optimising efficiency, lowering cost, following JIT principles, not realising the effects incase something bad happens.

[midas]

Well I wonder how this " trend " has developed recently ..........?

Savers vault from the banks to a safe place at home

Sales of household safes have surged as wealthy savers concerned about the health of banks opt to keep cash at home.

One company said that sales had increased by a quarter, while another said that its staff had received calls from panicking investors who now wanted to keep their savings locked away at home.

Russ Reader, the managing director of Leigh Safes, which makes, fits and sells safes, said: “It’s simple: if there’s a lack of confidence in banks, people buy and fit European and insurance-approved safes and put the contents on their home insurance.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/sav...icle4909756.ece

I do have to say though the part about insurance is a bit futile .......... I mean in a meltdown which insurance

companies will still be doing " business as usual " ?

Edited February 15, 2009 by midas

[flying]

I was surprised to see this yet again......

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment...e-meltdown.html

Its $16bn rescue of Ukraine has unravelled. The country – facing a 12pc contraction in GDP after the collapse of steel prices – is hurtling towards default, leaving Unicredit, Raffeisen and ING in the lurch.

Not long ago wasn't ING helped by the Dutch govt? Why is there name there again?

[12DrinkMore]

I wonder if it really time to take the money out of the bank ?

This is like watching the Tom Cruise movie " War of the Worlds " - its horrible

It is incredible. Every single day brings more awful reports.

Wonder if any bank is offering accounts in SDR? Might be worth having a few against defaulting countries.

[flying]

It is incredible. Every single day brings more awful reports.

Wonder if any bank is offering accounts in SDR? Might be worth having a few against defaulting countries.

Awhile back you asked for a reason to buy some gold

If I were a rich man...........I would have USD, Yen, Gold & Silver

Edited February 15, 2009 by flying

[bonzor]

It's a financial crisis. Not a war, not a famine. There are the same numbers of houses in the world. Same number of cars, same medicines, same food. The sun still shines and crops grow in the fields. What has been destroyed are the intangibles that have been hyper leveraged to represent wealth where non exists, apart from the small base of production, actual tangibles, upon which the projection is based.

So there is gridlock. So growth stalls or regresses for a couple of years. Big deal. The individuals who's lives are wrecked will be devastated but life will go on and things will return to normal after most of the crap, liars, useless companies producing crap no one wants has been shaken out of the system. Its a market correction on a huge global scale.

It's a failure too of democracy since what has emerged is a systemic failure of the USA political system which

a. Will never raise taxes when borrowing is an option. You cannot be elected in the USA unless you tell bigger lies than the other guy. Thats becoming true of all democracies.

b. When in trouble does not know how to respond. China can act far more quickly than the lumbering democracies.

What we are witnessing is historic in the sense that the fall of democracy and capitalism has followed the collapse of socialism. Interesting too that the traditional islamic banks are still relatively strong whilst the west's banks which laughed at islamic lending and borrowing rates have collapsed. The Arab states will emerge relatively stronger as will any truly Islamic state.

Which countries do best after the crash may well set the tone for the future. Except for the pure democracies like the US...they are doomed, but it won't come in our lifetime. The slow death of the American empire will take a long time, though as Turner argued it may well have set in once there was no more frontier. If there's nowhere left to go you turn inwards. The conspiracy theorists and survivalists are a product of the end of the frontier. At least there is still a booming market in pitbulls and guns, survival rations and bullets, razor wire and 'KEEP OUT" signs in Thai, and America's mosty powerful export, paranoia, is alive and well in Thailand.

Edited February 15, 2009 by bonzor

[AlexLah]

Have safe, have safe!

ING has been heavily investing in those Alt-A mortgages (28 Billion) commercial real estate (11 Billion) and is now feeling the effects of the punch on the nose they recieved. Furthermore they have been in all kinds of scandals as early as 2004 like cooking their books and lying about ROI to customers. One of the directors stashed away millions of Euro's and was said to be breaking all internal rules and snorting coke big time. They have invested big in East Europe and are asking for more and more government support.

[12DrinkMore]

It's a financial crisis. Not a war, not a famine. There are the same numbers of houses in the world. Same number of cars, same medicines, same food. The sun still shines and crops grow in the fields. What has been destroyed are the intangibles that have been hyper leveraged to represent wealth where non exists, apart from the small base of production, actual tangibles, upon which the projection is based.

Absolutely true except...

...that the destroyed "intangibles" represent all the pensions, the savings and the jobs that are sort of quite important to us folks here and which are, in my opinion, extremely tangible.

Edited February 15, 2009 by 12DrinkMore

[midas]

It's a financial crisis. Not a war, not a famine. There are the same numbers of houses in the world. Same number of cars, same medicines, same food. The sun still shines and crops grow in the fields. What has been destroyed are the intangibles that have been hyper leveraged to represent wealth where non exists, apart from the small base of production, actual tangibles, upon which the projection is based.

So there is gridlock. So growth stalls or regresses for a couple of years. Big deal. The individuals who's lives are wrecked will be devastated but life will go on and things will return to normal after most of the crap, liars, useless companies producing crap no one wants has been shaken out of the system. Its a market correction on a huge global scale.

It's a failure too of democracy since what has emerged is a systemic failure of the USA political system which

a. Will never raise taxes when borrowing is an option. You cannot be elected in the USA unless you tell bigger lies than the other guy. Thats becoming true of all democracies.

b. When in trouble does not know how to respond. China can act far more quickly than the lumbering democracies.

What we are witnessing is historic in the sense that the fall of democracy and capitalism has followed the collapse of socialism. Interesting too that the traditional islamic banks are still relatively strong whilst the west's banks which laughed at islamic lending and borrowing rates have collapsed. The Arab states will emerge relatively stronger as will any truly Islamic state.

Which countries do best after the crash may well set the tone for the future. Except for the pure democracies like the US...they are doomed, but it won't come in our lifetime. The slow death of the American empire will take a long time, though as Turner argued it may well have set in once there was no more frontier. If there's nowhere left to go you turn inwards. The conspiracy theorists and survivalists are a product of the end of the frontier. At least there is still a booming market in pitbulls and guns, survival rations and bullets, razor wire and 'KEEP OUT" signs in Thai, and America's mosty powerful export, paranoia, is alive and well in Thailand.

How can you infer these discussions as being " paranoia " when the financial crisis could well develop into a war and even a famine ?

Are you familiar with the term " extrapolate " - myself I prefer the mathematical definition " to estimate (a function that is known over a range of values of its independent variable) to values outside the known range "

How can you be certain that the " gridlock " you refer to doesn't become anarchy the seeds of which we saw recently in Athens?

The US itself may not be doomed in our lifetime but true democracy there is already stone dead- what is happening there now

is a complete charade.

[flying]

It's a financial crisis. Not a war, not a famine.

How can you be certain that the " gridlock " you refer to doesn't become anarchy the seeds of which we saw recently in Athens?

Yes take a look at the fact box half way down this page

http://www.timesofmalta.com/articles/view/...l-social-unrest

PS: http://uk.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUKL1472255

I like what Switzerland reads............... elite not qualified

* SWITZERLAND:

-- Hundreds of people rallied in Geneva and Davos on Saturday to protest against the World Economic Forum, saying the elite gathered for its annual meeting are not qualified to fix the world's problems.

-- In Geneva, where the WEF has its headquarters, police in riot gear fired teargas and water canon to disperse a crowd.

Edited February 15, 2009 by flying

[AlexLah]

It is all just a big frikkin joke what they are doing.

read this.

http://www.chartingstocks.net/2009/02/the-...-in-perspective

[midas]

What I'm finding extremely irritating beyond all words now is the continual references in the mainstream media to this being a " recession "

-defined as two quarters of GDP negative growth " - almost implying " normal services will be resumed as quickly as possible "

-it's a joke. We all know now this goes far beyond a recession and I just wish they had the balls to tell the sheeple what the hel_l is really going on

[samuibeachcomber]

What I'm finding extremely irritating beyond all words now is the continual references in the mainstream media to this being a " recession "

-defined as two quarters of GDP negative growth " - almost implying " normal services will be resumed as quickly as possible "

-it's a joke. We all know now this goes far beyond a recession and I just wish they had the balls to tell the sheeple what the hel_l is really going on

if they told the truth there would be a run on money and riots in the streets.

[samuibeachcomber]

It's a financial crisis. Not a war, not a famine. There are the same numbers of houses in the world. Same number of cars, same medicines, same food. The sun still shines and crops grow in the fields. What has been destroyed are the intangibles that have been hyper leveraged to represent wealth where non exists, apart from the small base of production, actual tangibles, upon which the projection is based.

So there is gridlock. So growth stalls or regresses for a couple of years. Big deal. The individuals who's lives are wrecked will be devastated but life will go on and things will return to normal after most of the crap, liars, useless companies producing crap no one wants has been shaken out of the system. Its a market correction on a huge global scale.

It's a failure too of democracy since what has emerged is a systemic failure of the USA political system which

a. Will never raise taxes when borrowing is an option. You cannot be elected in the USA unless you tell bigger lies than the other guy. Thats becoming true of all democracies.

b. When in trouble does not know how to respond. China can act far more quickly than the lumbering democracies.

What we are witnessing is historic in the sense that the fall of democracy and capitalism has followed the collapse of socialism. Interesting too that the traditional islamic banks are still relatively strong whilst the west's banks which laughed at islamic lending and borrowing rates have collapsed. The Arab states will emerge relatively stronger as will any truly Islamic state.

Which countries do best after the crash may well set the tone for the future. Except for the pure democracies like the US...they are doomed, but it won't come in our lifetime. The slow death of the American empire will take a long time, though as Turner argued it may well have set in once there was no more frontier. If there's nowhere left to go you turn inwards. The conspiracy theorists and survivalists are a product of the end of the frontier. At least there is still a booming market in pitbulls and guns, survival rations and bullets, razor wire and 'KEEP OUT" signs in Thai, and America's mosty powerful export, paranoia, is alive and well in Thailand.

this financial crisis is like a runaway train where the driver keeps trying to apply the breaks only knowing full well its going to crash.No good will come of these bailouts.these head honcho bankers must be laughing themselves silly at all this tax payer cash/printed money being thrown at them by govts.basically they've got the govts." by the short and curly's"the govts. are damned if they do and damned if they dont.

[Naam]

What I'm finding extremely irritating beyond all words now is the continual references in the mainstream media to this being a " recession "

-defined as two quarters of GDP negative growth " - almost implying " normal services will be resumed as quickly as possible "

-it's a joke. We all know now this goes far beyond a recession and I just wish they had the balls to tell the sheeple what the hel_l is really going on

Midas, that is merely an assumption although based on logic and extrapolating the facts. until now it is still not clear whether the situation develops into a global depression with all its negative implications. extremely high unemployment and famine cannot be completely ruled out but talking about or forecasting it is presently far fetched and not justified. that goes especially for potential wars for which not even the smallest reason exists.

[midas]

Midas, that is merely an assumption although based on logic and extrapolating the facts. until now it is still not clear whether the situation develops into a global depression with all its negative implications. extremely high unemployment and famine cannot be completely ruled out but talking about or forecasting it is presently far fetched and not justified. that goes especially for potential wars for which not even the smallest reason exists.

Naam you are misinterpreting my point. In my statement you underlined I made no reference to war or depression ?

I only said this is far beyond the dictionary definition of a " recession ".

But to keep referring to just the successive failure of banks alone is well outside the term that we associate with " recession "

and it reminds me very much off Jim Lovell on Apollo 13 and his famous statement "Houston, we have a problem."

It's as if government's are relying solely on the hope most people are too worn out to have the time

to extrapolate so just feed them enough information not to incite panic and so they continue to keep their money in the bank.

And I don't regard a war as a danger right now in the conventional sense of one military against another.

But I do believe there is a real threat of severe social unrest building in many countries and if law and order breaks down

and this is shown in the link provided by ' Flying ' to be occurring in more and more countries everyday- then we enter the unknown?

For example- it looks like Russia is heading for a meltdown so who will be there this time around TO PAY FOR security of the nuclear arsenal in that country ?

[jcon]

Hi all,

I have been going through some very big documents and today another 300+ pages document

<snip blah blah blahb aolbhalhlgalbhlahsblhbglshlaklaskjblkajl blah blah blah>

Midnight Saturday, Valentine's Day - and you're reading "very big documents?" And posting on TV. Alex. Go take "bimmie" out and pick up some chicks (in your chick car). Please. For me. For us. For you. Please.

[Naam]

It's as if government's are relying solely on the hope most people are too worn out to have the time to extrapolate so just feed them enough information not to incite panic and so they continue to keep their money in the bank.

Midas, what governments are presently doing is in my view justified as it is necessary to prevent a global freeze of all financial transactions. having said so, i would like to emphasise that i am in no position to judge in what way and up to what extent the information we are fed by politicians and bankers is right or wrong.

Edited February 15, 2009 by Naam