Financial Crisis

[AlexLah]

I agree, stop the fearmongering, we need something funny.

What I did is, I hacked Naam his webcam while he was online and captured a short clip of what he did after a certain post.

Here it is: http://www.vkmag.com/videos/videos_we_hebben_regels_nodig

[Chaimai]

Iceland .... but that's a special case " are not seeing how big this really is.( and Chaimai has never answered my question as

to why Iceland is a special case in his opinion?) We really dont know what is coming next ?

Now then Chaimai what have you got to say about all this ?

Before you answer think if it coulf happen in Switzerland, why could it not happen in the UK?

Alex,that video of Brzezinski is worrying. I think the potential for riots happening more frequently

is the most " scary " scenario of all because people can be like animals if they desparate.

And Dominique Strauss-Kahn also warned about riots on BBC World just this morning.

I don't recall saying Iceland was a special case - I vividly remember saying that Iceland had plenty of fresh fish.

I agree that the future is uncertain but I still can't envisage wholesale street rioting.

If you believe that to be the case then carry on and build your bunker, or a hole in the ground. I prefer to keep myself in the sunlight and will continue to do so until I am proved wrong or bullets are raining down the High Street. Many people are getting with their lives in a prudent, cautious manner - I intend to follow them

[Naam]

I agree, stop the fearmongering, we need something funny. What I did is, I hacked Naam his webcam while he was online and captured a short clip of what he did after a certain post.Here it is: http://www.vkmag.com/videos/videos_we_hebben_regels_nodig

you forced me to switch off my camera Alex

[midas]

I agree, stop the fearmongering, we need something funny. What I did is, I hacked Naam his webcam while he was online and captured a short clip of what he did after a certain post.Here it is: http://www.vkmag.com/videos/videos_we_hebben_regels_nodig

you forced me to switch off my camera Alex

Now that IS SCAREMONGERING :D

[Chaimai]

I agree, stop the fearmongering, we need something funny. What I did is, I hacked Naam his webcam while he was online and captured a short clip of what he did after a certain post.Here it is: http://www.vkmag.com/videos/videos_we_hebben_regels_nodig

you forced me to switch off my camera Alex

Now that IS SCAREMONGERING

That should have come with a XXX rating

[midas]

I don't recall saying Iceland was a special case - I vividly remember saying that Iceland had plenty of fresh fish.

You said this in Post #508 on this thread :-

"what about the possibility of an Icelandic style bankruptcy in UK ( and Switzerland ) and if this happened to occur"

If's and but's again and all about the sky falling in.

IF it were to happen it is Armageddon. It WILL NOT happen in my opinion and will not be allowed to happen. Icekland is somewhat different.?

I agree that the future is uncertain but I still can't envisage wholesale street rioting.

So you dont see the even the seeds of a" potential problem : here ...? Greece, Madagasgar, Latvia,Sofia.............

More details here ..........:- http://standeyo.com/NEWS/09_USA/090120.civ...unications.html

If you believe that to be the case then carry on and build your bunker, or a hole in the ground. I prefer to keep myself in the sunlight and will continue to do so until I am proved wrong or bullets are raining down the High Street. Many people are getting with their lives in a prudent, cautious manner - I intend to follow them

No Chaimai no one is suggesting for bunkers and I am very much in the sunlight also-but I think it would be very imprudent for anyone living in a densely populated area to not at least have a " contingency plan " of being able to move at short notice to a rural location and have some basic essentials at hand?

[Chaimai]

You said this in Post #508 on this thread :-

"what about the possibility of an Icelandic style bankruptcy in UK ( and Switzerland ) and if this happened to occur"

If's and but's again and all about the sky falling in.

IF it were to happen it is Armageddon. It WILL NOT happen in my opinion and will not be allowed to happen. Icekland is somewhat different.?

I agree that the future is uncertain but I still can't envisage wholesale street rioting.

So you dont see the even the seeds of a" potential problem : here ...? Greece, Madagasgar, Latvia,Sofia.............

More details here ..........:- http://standeyo.com/NEWS/09_USA/090120.civ...unications.html

Nowhere did I say that Iceland was a "special case" - "different" certainly. Naam has responded with some of the reasons. I think UK and Switzerland cannot be directly compared to the conditions that prevailed in Iceland.

"Seeds of a potential problem" - history shows that there is always a risk of insurrection when people are in a desperate position, either politically or financially. Will we see another Jarrow march - NO !

Greece was, as far as I remember, not down to the current financial crisis:-

"The youths regularly clash with the police, whom they view as symbols of the establishment. In most cases, the confrontations are relatively contained and end at the gates of universities with the young people holding off the police with gasoline bombs, rocks .."

I don't know much about Latvia etc but gather that the Riga anti-government protests were on par with a PAD or red-shirt demonstrations - I don't see Thailand burning either.

Don't get me wrong i am not dismissing any suggestion that a weather-eye should be kept on world events - that is sensible. What I do oppose is the 'reds-under-the-bed' approach to everything that is happening and any inference that there is a co-ordinated (or not) ground-swell of uprising against every institution and every government in the world.

Next thing we will see is some <deleted> idiot starting a topic on Japan being in the sh!te.

Edited February 19, 2009 by Chaimai

[thaidrew]

I agree that the future is uncertain but I still can't envisage wholesale street rioting.

maybe you don't see it just yet, patience patience, coming soon to a place near you

[churchill]

"Next thing we will see is some <deleted> idiot starting a topic on Japan being in the sh!te.

This post has been edited by Chaimai: Today, 2009-02-19 20:27:18"

The more opinions and posts the better to get to the bottom of all this mess .

[midas]

Don't get me wrong i am not dismissing any suggestion that a weather-eye should be kept on world events - that is sensible. What I do oppose is the 'reds-under-the-bed' approach to everything that is happening and any inference that there is a co-ordinated (or not) ground-swell of uprising against every institution and every government in the world.

No no -I don't even think this myself. The world is not going to suddenly wake up one morning facing simultaneous unrest everywhere.

I think it's more like a bush fire- it takes just one ember to land in the dry forest and then start spreading like fury-a chain reaction.

I am not expecting it in Thailand ( other than maybe more bickering between redshirts against yellow shirts ) but I am expecting it

in the USA. If you think I'm crazy maybe I am but another person who shares the same view regarding USA is

Glenn Beck previously from CNN and at least he has good access to world news. He is totally convinced there will be

very serious violence gradually spreading right across America and after carefully listening to his reasons I can understand why

[12DrinkMore]

the mortgages in Eastern Europe by austrian and swiss banks are not the debt of the countries Austria and Switzerland.

This raises an interesting question.

So where did the local banks in Eastern Europe Banks get the Swiss Francs they lent out?

Were they "real" Swiss Francs that had been borrowed from Switzerland?

Were they "fake" Swiss Francs conjured up in Eastern Europe?

What sort of regulations govern this?

Example:

Mr Kostanovitch trots into his local branch and takes out a loan of CHF 100,000 at 2%. So now he has a liability to repay the bank CHF 100,000, which are presumably instantly converted to the local currency to buy his house, as the builder is not going to get very far paying wages and materials in CHFs. Then, when Kostanovitch repays his loan, all he does is take in the Zloties, which are converted by the bank to CHF and credited to his account. There does not have to be a single "real" CHF involved at all.

Does the bank have to go to a Swiss Bank to get these 100,000 CHFs or can the whole deal simply be made without any necessity for "real" CHFs to be involved? And to minimise the currency risk for the local bank, which uses Zloties for its accounts, all they need to do is to take out a futures contract against the Zloty appreciating against the CHF.

This is all surely regulated by national and international banking regulations. But what are they?

[midas]

So where did the local banks in Eastern Europe Banks get the Swiss Francs they lent out?

Were they "real" Swiss Francs that had been borrowed from Switzerland?

Were they "fake" Swiss Francs conjured up in Eastern Europe?

This is all surely regulated by national and international banking regulations. But what are they?

Very good point! We are all so involved in this thread in determining which country is going broke next

that no one has talked about what they feel about another serious problem-a complete and utter lack of trust.

Chaimai I read somewhere you are a mortgage broker ? Have you seen BBC world today covering

this Allen Stanford debacle ?

That showed a mortgage broker who had directed all his clients to the Stanford Companies

and he was totally shelled shocked. On the television he came out of the building and said " I don't know who we can trust anymore ".

This is drip drip drip -how many days can this go on where everywhere people turn they now fear being cheated

and lied to by bankers, investment advisers, politicians. How can we ever get back to anywhere near normal business activities

until people can restore their faith in someone -and right now we can't because not a day goes by without learning

about another fraud ?

This was posted earlier on TV

" The FBI is convinced that the two huge frauds are just the tip of the iceberg. John Pistole, the

Deputy Director of the FBI, told politicians on Capitol Hill last week that the

agency was investigating 530 corporate fraud cases, including 38 directly related to the current economic crisis."

Don't tell me the world has ever experienced such a collapse of ethics and moral standards in the business world

on this scale ever before? Even Gordon Gecko would not have expected this !

Its no different to theft under the guise of " commercial activities "

Edited February 19, 2009 by midas

[AlexLah]

Cut and paste from some site:

Swiss banks have given billions of credit to Eastern Europe - now the customers cannot pay back the money. Switzerland is threatened with the fate of Iceland, says economist Arthur P. Schmidt.

In countries such as Poland, Hungary and Croatia, the Swiss franc has become an important currency. Thousands of households and small firms took out loans in Swiss francs, and not in the national currency zloty, forint, or kuna because of lower interest rates. In Hungary, 31 percent of all loans are in Swiss currency. Amongst household loans, they are almost 60 percent.

Borrowers in distress

Now, the financial crisis has ended the era of cheap credit. As a result, Eastern European currencies are falling. At the end of September, one had to pay 46 francs for 100 Polish zlotys. Today it is 30 francs. That means more and more borrowers are having problems with interest payments and repayment. So the question is what effect this has on the Swiss financial marketplace. One who sees a dark future for Switzerland is economic expert Artur P. Schmidt.

He believes that the Swiss franc is in danger because of the loans in Eastern Europe.

In Poland, Hungary and Croatia, the Swiss franc has become an important foreign currency - the dollar, so to speak, of Eastern Europe. Thousands of households and businesses have franc loans. Why? The rapid growth in many countries of Eastern Europe was stimulated through loans in Swiss francs. Swiss banks and offshore institutions loaned the local banks francs, which passed the francs onto their customers. The loans were attractive because borrowers pay interest rates much lower than required for loans in local currency.

I tried to look at some local papers and found that for example in Hungaria some banks stopped lending from Swiss banks as far back as 30 October because of the high risks. http://index.hu/gazdasag/magyar/cibsfh081028 My Hungarian is a bit rusty but from what I understand is that on loans made in local currency they had to pay something like 9-12% interest and on loans in Swiss it was about 5-7%

So there you have it, customers were lured into a trap when they were shown a lower interest rate when borrowing from Switserland. The payments where made in local currency and then the bank needs to convert to Swiss currency making a nice profit on the exchange rate commision and sending it back to Swiss bank. So most likely both party's covered themselves for default just incase. With a decline in value of East European currency people were no longer able to pay their mortgage. Swiss banks knockin on the door of their insurance company and the same in those East European company's.

Then the IMF comes to rescue together with world bank and offer loans to cover the losses. But these loans come with strings attached.

That is how the game is being played.

[12DrinkMore]

So there you have it, customers were lured into a trap when they were shown a lower interest rate when borrowing from Switserland. The payments where made in local currency and then the bank needs to convert to Swiss currency making a nice profit on the exchange rate commision and sending it back to Swiss bank.

That doesn't answer the question.

Is it necessary for the local bank to secure a loan from a Swiss bank in CHF if it lends out CHF?

The assumption above is yes, but why?

I could loan to Naam 1,000 USDs and charge him 2% but give him the equivalent in THBs. He could pay me off in THBs, which I would then convert to USDs at the prevailing rate until the debt was paid off. He would take the risk of the THB falling and I would take the risk of the THB rising. There would be NO USDs actually involved, just paper THBs.

So, I suppose in a way I would have personally increased the world's number of USDs by 1,000.

Strange system. But can the banks do it as well?

Edited February 19, 2009 by 12DrinkMore

[midas]

Don't get me wrong i am not dismissing any suggestion that a weather-eye should be kept on world events - that is sensible. What I do oppose is the 'reds-under-the-bed' approach to everything that is happening and any inference that there is a co-ordinated (or not) ground-swell of uprising against every institution and every government in the world.

Next thing we will see is some <deleted> idiot starting a topic on Japan being in the sh!te.

Chaimai well at least one state in the USA ( there are actually others doing the same )

are taking the threat seriously enough to spend money on training:-

Arizona Police Trained for Economic Civil Unrest

Arizona state and local police “say they have broad plans to deal with social unrest, including trouble resulting from economic distress. The security and police agencies declined to give specifics, but said they would employ existing and generalized emergency responses to civil unrest that arises for any reason.”

“Widespread civil violence inside the United States would force the defense establishment to reorient priorities in extremis to defend basic domestic order and human security,” writes [Ret.] Lt. Col. Nathan Freir for the U.S. Army War College. “Deliberate employment of weapons of mass destruction or other catastrophic capabilities, unforeseen economic collapse, loss of functioning political and legal order, purposeful domestic resistance or insurgency, pervasive public health emergencies, and catastrophic natural and human disasters are all paths to disruptive domestic shock.”

The fact that a corporate media newspaper such as the Phoenix Business Journal is now telling us police are trained with the assistance of Northcom and the Department of Homeland Security to respond to civil unrest spawned by economic unrest should be a wake-up call to all Americans that the government is planning to institute martial law.

and finally I had to add this further paragraph

Last month Gerald Celente, the CEO of Trends Research Institute, renowned for his accuracy in predicting future world and economic events, predicted a depression of a magnitude worse than the Great Depression of the 1930s, tax rebellions, and possibly a popular revolution against the government. On December 15, Paul Joseph Watson reported Celente updating his prediction by stating “that America will see riots similar to those currently ongoing in Greece and that the cause will be a hyper-inflationary depression, leading to the inevitable use of troops and mercenaries to deal with the crisis as Americans are incarcerated in internment camps.”

http://www.infowars.com/arizona-police-tra...c-civil-unrest/

Edited February 19, 2009 by midas

[Chaimai]

No no -I don't even think this myself. The world is not going to suddenly wake up one morning facing simultaneous unrest everywhere.

I think it's more like a bush fire- it takes just one ember to land in the dry forest and then start spreading like fury-a chain reaction.

I am not expecting it in Thailand ( other than maybe more bickering between redshirts against yellow shirts ) but I am expecting it

in the USA. If you think I'm crazy maybe I am but another person who shares the same view regarding USA is

Glenn Beck previously from CNN and at least he has good access to world news. He is totally convinced there will be

very serious violence gradually spreading right across America and after carefully listening to his reasons I can understand why

Forgive me but I am not qualified to talk about conditions in the States - I have to take at face-value the posts I see on ThaiVisa.

Based on the UK and near Europe I do not see tinder-box conditions at this stage of the cycle..

[Chaimai]

On the television he came out of the building and said " I don't know who we can trust anymore ".

This is a very good point and the general public will take a long to be convinced that they can trust banks, politicians... the list will get longer as confidence continues to take a hammering.

Remember, my glass is half-full - therefore, I have to belief that sometimes you have to live with a pile of doo doo before you can start to clear away the mess and start with a clean slate.

[AlexLah]

12, Those local banks went to Swiss banks and convinced them that they had a lot of customers interested in borrowing because of the better conditions

Lower interest rates.

So local banks made agreements with Swiss banks to borrow Swiss money and promised to pay it back with a nice profit.

Customer ask for mortgage and been told it is better to convert the zloty or Forint into Swiss Franc as it historically has been a stable currency.

Stable currency have a lower interest rate.

So the exchange is made between the banks.

The why is the lower interest rate offered by Swiss banks..

It is just a paper transaction where both parties (Banks) profit.

[lannarebirth]

When one sees the government looting of citizens income, just imagine how little regard they will have for those "offshore".

[Naam]

Next thing we will see is some <deleted> idiot starting a topic on Japan being in the sh!te.

that happened already

[AlexLah]

ha ha ha!

[Naam]

I could loan to Naam 1,000 USDs and charge him 2% but give him the equivalent in THBs. He could pay me off in THBs, which I would then convert to USDs at the prevailing rate until the debt was paid off. He would take the risk of the THB falling and I would take the risk of the THB rising. There would be NO USDs actually involved, just paper THBs.

that is correct except that i have access to a USD loan at 1.355% and would therefore refuse to pay 2%

So, I suppose in a way I would have personally increased the world's number of USDs by 1,000.

no, you did not increase USD by any amount. the USD which you loaned were not generated from thin air but did already exist.

Strange system. But can the banks do it as well?

yes they can.

[AlexLah]

[midas]

Good morning Alex !

now do we see a trend here ............?

If Violence Escalates in Mexico, Texas Officials Plan to Be Ready

As drug cartels continue to terrorize Mexico, Texas officials are planning

for the worst-case scenario: how to respond if the violence spills over the

border, and what to do if thousands of Mexicans seek refuge in the United States.

http://www.foxnews.com/printer_friendly_st...,491964,00.html

[12DrinkMore]

no, you did not increase USD by any amount. the USD which you loaned were not generated from thin air but did already exist.

But they didn't exist until I made them up, converted them to THB and gave the THBs to you. And even then, although your debt to me is in USD, you are paying it off in THBs, which I convert using my calculator into USDs.

So with the Eastern European banks, does anybody know for certain whether the CHF loans were just "fake" CHFs, or were "real" CHFs from a bank in Switzerland, or maybe a mixture?

If they are Swiss Francs from a Swiss bank, and the Eastern European borrowers don't pay off their debts, then maybe the Eastern European banks will in turn default on their loans to the Swiss banks.

But if the CHFs are all "fake" and conjured up only in Eastern Europe, then it's only an Eastern European problem and doesn't involve the Swiss at all.

[Naam]

no, you did not increase USD by any amount. the USD which you loaned were not generated from thin air but did already exist.

But they didn't exist until I made them up, converted them to THB and gave the THBs to you. And even then, although your debt to me is in USD, you are paying it off in THBs, which I convert using my calculator into USDs.

sorry 12 i misunderstood. anyway, you did not "make" the USD you just renamedTHB and called them USD. calling a cat a dog does not change the animal there was also no conversion except me agreeing that i owe you USD but will pay you in THB and with the THB i will pay you will again buy existing USD.

[12DrinkMore]

Here we go, they now want to empty the civil service pension schemes to build schools.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/e...icle5769537.ece

Go on Brown you bstard, just spend everything and then print more of it. So how do you the expect the pension schemes to pay out when there is <deleted> all left in them? Yes, call on the tax payers to pay up again and again and again.

Or maybe you will build dual-purpose schools, during the day used as schools and then during the night turned into mass dormitories/soup kitchens for all the pensioners with no pensions/no house and no food?

And as

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle5769523.ece

They say it is virtually impossible to hire established teams of British workers with a range of different skills - welders, fitters and so on - while it is relatively easy to do so in other European countries, such as Italy or Portugal.

The homegrown alternative would have involved finding a reliable manager who would then draw together a team of workers on an ad hoc basis with much less predictable and satisfactory results.

The long-term decline of Britain's manufacturing sector and the chronic lack of trained engineers in the UK workforce, have been linked in a vicious spiral for years.

the unskilled, unemployable, unpredictable, unreliable and unsatisfactory UK population can look on as more foreign workers are brought in to do the building for them.... I doubt whether there is a single Brit left who can build a wall made out of Lego or bolt two pieces of mechano together

There is no hope for the UK, none whatsoever.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle5769569.ece

A slump in tax receipts caused by the recession has driven the Government’s finances farther into the red than at any time for 15 years.

Official figures confirmed mounting strains on the Treasury, with Alistair Darling forced to borrow £67.2 billion in the first ten months of this financial year. This was almost three times as much as the same period last year.

Edited February 20, 2009 by 12DrinkMore

[stumonster]

Here we go, they now want to empty the civil service pension schemes to build schools.

not to worry - pension schemes were invested in places like iceland and with maldoff and stanford

this is when I would expect the real wailing and gnashing of teeth to start - when the reality about pension schemes , retirement finally dawns on your average person.

[midas]

Here we go, they now want to empty the civil service pension schemes to build schools.

not to worry - pension schemes were invested in places like iceland and with maldoff and stanford

this is when I would expect the real wailing and gnashing of teeth to start - when the reality about pension schemes , retirement finally dawns on your average person.

12Drink, you sound very angry now - so when you say " tax payers to pay up again and again and again." - I am curious what would be your maximum threshold

of tolerance before being tempted to engage in any kind of civil unrest if you were stuck in Uk or USA ...........?

[AlexLah]

I think I mentioned this a while ago, and there ya have it.

What a perfect example of moronic incompetence this Gordon Brown, jeeez.