Financial Crisis

[12DrinkMore]

A little further along the theme of setting, or rather resetting, the high expectations of the sheople.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/7888729/Millions-face-four-year-fall-in-standard-of-living.html

Millions of workers will suffer effective pay cuts and a fall in their standard of living for the next four years, an economist from the Treasury’s independent forecaster has warned.

Note how the time frame is steadily moving further out, one year, two years and now four years. And don't expect that the Great British Average House Price is about to gallop around the corner and rescue the spending power of the nation.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/houseprices/7886145/UK-house-prices-not-set-to-recover-for-another-ten-years-says-PWC.html

Property prices will not recover for another decade and should be viewed as "risky assets", according to PricewaterhouseCooper's Economic Outlook report.

But this should raise a few smiles. The Chinese Debt Rating agency

http://www.dagongcredit.com/dagongweb/english/aboutus/index.php

has issued a Sovereign Debt Rating table.

http://www.dagongcredit.com/dagongweb/uf/Sovereign%20Credit%20Rating%20Report%20of%2050%20Countries%20in%202010.pdf

And guess how the cheeky Chinese see the US of A?.....

......Yup, rated at AA outlook negative.

If you scroll down to page 11 they have helpfully included a comparison with the main other debt rating agencies.

Hey Tim, did you catch that? AA

[12DrinkMore]

I seem to remember prize for the most irritating expression of 2009 was easily won by 'green shoots'. I suspect the winner for 2010 will be 'double dip'. (Unless 12D succeeds with his plan to establish 'decade of thrift' which is incredibly irritating when it is only mentioned once.)

There seems a lot of talk about 'double dip' (I am a believer myself), lots of stuff to worry about - stock markets, house prices, euro area stability, fiscal austerity, Chinese asset prices and Obama's mental health. Everyone is jumping on every bad figure - I think Midas has even convinced himself there wasn't even any recovery. However, it is interesting that no credible economist is actually 'forecasting' a double dip. The bears - Krugman, Roubini etc are talking about 'risks' to recovery.

There is no precise definition for a recession. What we are going through would have been called a depression prior to the 1930 episode. The "newspaper definition" of a recession is two consecutive quarter periods of decline. And the IMF uses the term "Global Recession" for a period with less than 3% growth.

Provided the drowning man can find enough energy to lift his head out of the water for a quick breath of air every six months, he would still be drowning, but it wouldn't be called that.. The Leaderz just need to prevent two consecutive quarters of falling GDP, possibly by the application of quick stimulus, raising VAT or massaging the stats, keeping the phrase "double dip" out of the media but maybe not out of the pockets of the peeps. We are being slowly conditioned into accepting the "Decade of Thrift", where the economy just bumps slowly down the hill.

I would also like to put "Jobless Recovery" as a contender for 2010, not that I expect it will be used as often as the "Double Dip". I just find it irritating that anything which is called a recovery may not include jobs for the peeps.

As you point out, there will always be pockets of good news, for example the Germans are doing well at the moment, but in general, those countries that have squandered and overspent on non-productive "assets" and "services" must either have a massive turnaround in attitude or there will be no turnaround in growth.

Edited July 14, 2010 by 12DrinkMore

[Abrak]

Provided the drowning man can find enough energy to lift his head out of the water for a quick breath of air every six months, he would still be drowning, but it wouldn't be called that..

Absolutely right. There is no denying that a man drowning who pops his head up for air will still not drown. On the other hand, it is possible that a) he will not drown and he will take a lot longer to drown than you think.

A rebound in the economy or the stockmarket may just be that - a blip in a long term trend.

My whole point though is more tied to cognitive science. Take a look at this quick video to start with....

BTW if you got all the answers right, the question is which is the cutest girl? (Yes, she disappeared.)

The point about that the video is once people find the first thing they are looking for, they often wont notice what else is actually going on. If you are looking for a recession and you want to find it at the right time and place you need to look for the fact there isnt going to be one, just as hard as you need to look at the fact there is going to be one.

P.S. You cant use 'jobless recovery' as the cliche phrase because it already has won in the early 2000s. The reason I find 'decade of thrift' 'irritating' although 'possible winner' of the best 'cliche' going forward, is that the concept suffers from the 'fallacy of composition' namely that if 'we all save more' 'together', we are bound to end up saving 'less' and 'negative growth' would be an axiom.

Still, I think I argued at least 100 pages back, that given the underlying problems in the economy and the lack of viable solutions, the best political policy option was to 'sell' a bad economy rather than to 'cure' it. To sell it as a 'virtue' to make up for past 'sins' and as a 'sacrifice' 'we' need to make for our 'children' and our 'children's children.'

[Abrak]

Hey Tim, did you catch that? AA

Wait..... who should be laughing here? The 'seller' or the 'buyer'?

The whole point of this whole charade is that they are both idiots....

[BlackJack]

I think it is great, don't you, that you can buy a magazine for tits and bums and get politics and economics as an add on? Well done, Hustler! What a wake up call for the one handed somnambulists among us. Of course the real tits and bums are the pathetic puppets propelled to power by the bankers responsible for creating the latest economic crisis - and all the others over the last century or so. It is, after all, how they get their hands on even more of our money.

Maybe, just maybe, their latest creation has turned into a Frankenstein they can't control and that it will destroy them. But I doubt it. Everything we see happening today is evidence that the Elite's grip on the globe is tightening and that it won't be long before the great unwashed (as a royal member of the Bilderberg group apparently calls us)will find ourselves in a real-life version of Huxley's Brave New World.

Already, thanks to new legislation introduced as part of the war on terror (sic) an American citizen can be arrested, held indefinitely without trial and tortured to obtain information that he doesn't happen to have. In the equally paranoid UK these days, you can't take a dump in a public toilet without a hidden video camera catching you in the act.

Most Forum members reading this will probably write me off as just another wacky conspiracy theorist (in the same way that anyone in the scores of US/UK/UN occupied countries opposes the invading forces is labelled a terrorist). Well, I suppose it is easier than finding out about something that may make you uncomfortable. Or worried. Or absolutely petrified.

You don't actually have to take any notice or do anything. As a neighbour I was talking to the other day put it: "When people start talking politics, I just turn the telly up louder". He had never heard of the entities like Elite, the Bilderberg Group, or the proposed New World Order they and their political lackeys are working towards. He probably had no idea that the US Government has been in hock to a privately owned bank called the Federal Reserve since 1933 and that unelected officials in effect decide US fiscal policy and rake in interest on every dollar printed. And he probably doesn't know or care that banks on both sides of the Atlantic have been given virtually a blank cheque to carry on playing roulette with our money and snap up bargains from the scrapheap of businesses they killed by pulling the credit plug.

Of course, you don't have to be a dummy in the dark, waiting for Hustler to give you the financial chills with your thrills. There's plenty of information out there on how the world is really run - and who runs it - from far more reputable and reliable sources than a porno mag.

Couch potatoes can get up to speed from the comfort of their armchairs by using the internet to download articles, information and videos starring alternative media gurus such as Gerald Celente, Webster Tarpley, John Pilger, David Icke and Alex Jones.

Everybody who welcomed US President Obama as a Messiah destined to change the world for the better should watch Obama - The Deception by Alex Jones. It portrays the US President, shockingly, as the most powerful puppet of the international bankers and their cohorts - and warns that time is running out to scupper their plans for a world government takeover. I found it as gripping as any blockbuster movie.

The alternative thinkers attack the authorised view of a whole host of controversial events, ranging from the Kennedy assassination and the bombing of the World Trade Centre to the phenomenon of global warming and the Gulf oil disaster. Many of these events, it seems, have surprising and sinister links to one another.

Whether you agree with their views or not, the dissenters are surely worth a hearing. Recent events show all to clearly that anybody who believes that what you don't know can't hurt you is living in a fool's paradise.

we did the conspiracy thingy and moved on as

it was generally agreed that the good looking goat that someone porked hundreds of years ago is largely responsible for all the mess we are in today.

Knowing that we are trying to now decide what is the best way to position ourselves (excuse the pun) to better our financial situation now and in the future.

gold silver short long derivatives ramping stealing cheating avoiding tax creative tax off shore banks etc etc

[Abrak]

<BR><BR><BR>I'll have a pint of what he's drinking please <BR>

And then Badger turned up.....

"Badger 'Do you mean to say you don't promise never to touch a motorcar again?'

Toad 'On the contrary! I faithfully promise that the first motor car I see...'

Toad 'Poop, poop'*"

* Copyright 1983 Wind and the Willows (TV)

Edited July 14, 2010 by Abrak

[midas]

I seem to remember prize for the most irritating expression of 2009 was easily won by 'green shoots'. I suspect the winner for 2010 will be 'double dip'. (Unless 12D succeeds with his plan to establish 'decade of thrift' which is incredibly irritating when it is only mentioned once.)

There seems a lot of talk about 'double dip' (I am a believer myself), lots of stuff to worry about - stock markets, house prices, euro area stability, fiscal austerity, Chinese asset prices and Obama's mental health. Everyone is jumping on every bad figure - I think Midas has even convinced himself there wasn't even any recovery. However, it is interesting that no credible economist is actually 'forecasting' a double dip. The bears - Krugman, Roubini etc are talking about 'risks' to recovery.

There is no precise definition for a recession. What we are going through would have been called a depression prior to the 1930 episode. The "newspaper definition" of a recession is two consecutive quarter periods of decline. And the IMF uses the term "Global Recession" for a period with less than 3% growth.

Provided the drowning man can find enough energy to lift his head out of the water for a quick breath of air every six months, he would still be drowning, but it wouldn't be called that.. The Leaderz just need to prevent two consecutive quarters of falling GDP, possibly by the application of quick stimulus, raising VAT or massaging the stats, keeping the phrase "double dip" out of the media but maybe not out of the pockets of the peeps. We are being slowly conditioned into accepting the "Decade of Thrift", where the economy just bumps slowly down the hill.

I would also like to put "Jobless Recovery" as a contender for 2010, not that I expect it will be used as often as the "Double Dip". I just find it irritating that anything which is called a recovery may not include jobs for the peeps.

As you point out, there will always be pockets of good news, for example the Germans are doing well at the moment, but in general, those countries that have squandered and overspent on non-productive "assets" and "services" must either have a massive turnaround in attitude or there will be no turnaround in growth.

They keep talking things up because they know from the 1930's

people's tolerance has a limit

Spain 'relying on short-term funding' as councils go bust

A third of Spain's city councils are in dire straits and may be forced to suspend payments by the end of the year, replicating the woes in the US, where many states are bearing the brunt of fiscal tightening.

The latest Consenso Económico survey forecasts that GDP will contract by 0.8pc this year, with zero growth next year. Unemployment is already 19.9pc. The lesson of the early 1930s is that once slumps last much beyond two years they start to engender serious social tension.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/7888637/Spain-relying-on-short-term-funding-as-councils-go-bust.html

Edited July 14, 2010 by midas

[midas]

As the stock market races up ........is this the thin end of the wedge and in time will this " trend " spread

all over USA ?

Oakland fires 80 police officers, lists crimes cops will no longer respond to

The department's chief had said in recent days that unless the city could meet the union's demands, officers would no longer respond in person to register sex offenders, or for reports of vehicle accidents, grand theft, identity theft, burglary, embezzlement, vandalism, stray animals and others.

In Oakland, one of the nation's most crime-plagued cities, non-violent reports make up about a quarter of 911 calls, according to area reports. The 80 officers laid off constitutes about 10 percent of the police department's total manpower.

Tuesday's layoffs completes an action taken by the city council, which voted on June 25 to axe the jobs. If the city's voters refuse this November to approve new taxes, another 122 Oakland officers will out of a job by January 1, 2011.

http://rawstory.com/rs/2010/0713/oakland-fires-80-police-officers-lists-crimes-longer-respond/

Edited July 14, 2010 by midas

[Abrak]

They keep talking things up because they know from the 1930's

people's tolerance has a limit

You know, Midas, we rarely agree on anything - occasionally I kick you in the balls and occasionally you kick me in the balls.

But there is nothing you have ever stated that I agree with so much as the above comment.

The only real difference I would like to add is the word 'learnt' from 'know' in that comment. The 'letters to The Times' posted 80 years ago would imply that we 'know' what will happen rather than we have 'learnt' from what has happened. The fact that I did not think 'peoples tolerance has a limit' but now I think that 'tolerance will be tested' was based on the fact that people had 'learnt' what would happen rather than they would make the same mistakes again.

So as we disappear into the 'decade of thrift' combined with the 'double bed in Paris Hilton's PJ', 25% real spending cuts on UK education, the only question really is to what extent Kim Kardashian remains the gangplank of E channel when there are enough destitutes on the streets.

http://www.gadling.com/2010/07/13/paris-hilton-tweets-from-her-on-board-bed-in-her-private-jet/

And remember that Paris Hilton has over 2 million twitter followers in the world.

BTW Barak Obama has more in fact the top 4 twitters.... are....

4. Kim Kardashian 3.7m

3. Obama 3.9m

2. Britney 4.9m

1. Ashton 4.9m

[midas]

They keep talking things up because they know from the 1930's

people's tolerance has a limit

You know, Midas, we rarely agree on anything - occasionally I kick you in the balls and occasionally you kick me in the balls.

But there is nothing you have ever stated that I agree with so much as the above comment.

The only real difference I would like to add is the word 'learnt' from 'know' in that comment. The 'letters to The Times' posted 80 years ago would imply that we 'know' what will happen rather than we have 'learnt' from what has happened. The fact that I did not think 'peoples tolerance has a limit' but now I think that 'tolerance will be tested' was based on the fact that people had 'learnt' what would happen rather than they would make the same mistakes again.

So as we disappear into the 'decade of thrift' combined with the 'double bed in Paris Hilton's PJ', 25% real spending cuts on UK education, the only question really is to what extent Kim Kardashian remains the gangplank of E channel when there are enough destitutes on the streets.

http://www.gadling.com/2010/07/13/paris-hilton-tweets-from-her-on-board-bed-in-her-private-jet/

And remember that Paris Hilton has over 2 million twitter followers in the world.

BTW Barak Obama has more in fact the top 4 twitters.... are....

4. Kim Kardashian 3.7m

3. Obama 3.9m

2. Britney 4.9m

1. Ashton 4.9m

Abrak i respect your ability to articulate economic theory so well but instead of concentrating on the semantics of

“ learnt “ versus “ know “, I so feel you have skipped over what in my opinion is the most important words from that article i.e. “ serious social tension “ .

As time passes , I am increasingly convinced we are witnessing the early stages of a slow motion disintegration of law and order in USA caused by austerity and because of cities and states that are slowly going broke. Dont even talk about what is happening on the Mexican border and that might even become the new America in some cities.

I think the effects of “ decade of thrift' “ as you say will be so fierce everywhere that there wont be enough police –particuarly in USA and in the some European countries to keep order.

Italian Economist Warns Of Revolution By Unemployed Youth

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/italian-economist-warns-of-revolution-by-unemployed-youth-2010-7#ixzz0tf7lnQ9Q

[ronz28]

65 million vacant housing units in China....a bubble 5 time larger than in the US

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/china-has-been-covertly-funding-housing-bubble-five-times-larger-us-65-million-vacant-homes-

[badge]

65 million vacant housing units in China....a bubble 5 time larger than in the US

http://www.zerohedge...n-vacant-homes-

So almost exactly the same on a pro-rata basis.

[Abrak]

65 million vacant housing units in China....a bubble 5 time larger than in the US

http://www.zerohedge...n-vacant-homes-

So almost exactly the same on a pro-rata basis.

Well that is one way of looking at it I suppose.

However the problem China has is its prices. If you look at the 'median' price to income ratio it is approximately 40x which is roughly 10x higher than in the US. More realistically if you look at the 'mean' price to income ratio it is approximately 8x or 2.5x that of the US. On that basis if property prices were to fall by 60%, then China could say it had the same sort of pro-rata housing problem as the US.

[flying]

At this point Flying jumped in to the argument and said 'echo, echo

Actually I said echo because I am traveling at the moment & was too busy to be bothered looking up your post of old that said the exact same thing as the one I quoted.

Of course in the real world we know your better than ever numbers was totally wrong last time too....

But then that is the difference between fairy tales such as toad & reality

Lesson of the day....Do not rely on fairy tales for your numbers that look so good.

Including those from the church of Bernanke et al'

Brought that old song by Eamon I think?...to mind....

F_uck what I said it don't mean sh1t now

Edited July 15, 2010 by flying

[12DrinkMore]

Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-07-12/king-s-men-fiddle-with-u-k-forecasts-david-g-blanchflower.html

During my time on the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, which makes quarterly economic prognoses, Governor Mervyn King controlled the hiring and firing of the forecast team, who did his bidding. They had to produce a result that was consistent with King’s views, or else they would be history

On June 22, Osborne announced a program of measures to cut public spending and raise taxes, including an increase in the value-added tax rate to 20 percent from 17.5 percent. The OBR produced a forecast that suggested these measures would have a minimal effect on employment and unemployment.

Subsequently, leaked documents showed they would actually result in the loss of at least 500,000 public-sector jobs and 600,000 to 700,000 jobs in the private sector.

Political Interference

By noon the next day, the OBR had produced a new forecast saying that, even with these job cuts, employment would rise and unemployment would fall every year throughout the forecast period. The idea that the private sector would fill this hole by creating as many as 2.5 million jobs was greeted with howls of incredulity. And with a new forecast produced so quickly, it smacked strongly of political interference.

What was that figure we wanted?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-13/americans-in-70-majority-see-frozen-unemployment-as-budget-deficit-widens.html

After a year of economic growth, 71 percent say the economy is still in recession; another 13 percent say the economy is faltering and will dip back into recession.

On the one hand Ben and Tim are putting about rumours of a recovery, but 84% of the population have not noticed an improvement.

Must be a lagging indicator.

[Naam]

65 million vacant housing units in China....a bubble 5 time larger than in the US

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/china-has-been-covertly-funding-housing-bubble-five-times-larger-us-65-million-vacant-homes-

zerohedge's Dyler Turd can't be wrong

[Abrak]

By noon the next day, the OBR had produced a new forecast saying that, even with these job cuts, employment would rise and unemployment would fall every year throughout the forecast period. The idea that the private sector would fill this hole by creating as many as 2.5 million jobs was greeted with howls of incredulity. And with a new forecast produced so quickly, it smacked strongly of political interference.

Yes funny that isnt it?

I think it was in 'The Times' today whereby an economist estimates that for the UK to reach its growth forecasts with the reduction of public sector spending (about 2% real) the private sector must grow on average by 6% real over the next 5 years. Doesnt sound too likely does it?

[midas]

At this point Flying jumped in to the argument and said 'echo, echo

Actually I said echo because I am traveling at the moment & was too busy to be bothered looking up your post of old that said the exact same thing as the one I quoted.

Of course in the real world we know your better than ever numbers was totally wrong last time too....

But then that is the difference between fairy tales such as toad & reality

Lesson of the day....Do not rely on fairy tales for your numbers that look so good.

Including those from the church of Bernanke et al'

Brought that old song by Eamon I think?...to mind....

F_uck what I said it don't mean sh1t now

for example :-

The US Economy Is A Dead Horse And The American People Are Starting To Get Angry

" Well, we all need to start becoming a lot less dependent on the system.

We should all consider how we can start our own businesses, grow our own food and trade within our own communities.

If the entire system is starting to break down, it is those who are the least dependent on the system that will have the best chance to prosper during the times ahead ".

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-us-economy-is-a-dead-horse-and-the-american-people-are-starting-to-get-angry-2010-7

[BlackJack]

However, is the famed US Government bond going to be equally safe in the future? Clearly not if the noted economist and investor Marc Faber is to be believed. In fact, as per Faber, the value of the US bond would be nothing more than worthless pieces of paper going forward. This is thanks to the enormous amount of debt the US has piled on. Faber believes that the US Government will have to run a giant Ponzi scheme just to be even on its interest payments. In other words, it will have to keep issuing new bonds so that the money raised could be used to pay its ever rising interest expenses.

The repayment of debt is just impossible as per Faber. And this scheme would come to end the day new bond issuances will not be able to match interest payments. Then, the US Government will be left with no other option but to print money thus significantly raising the risk of a hyperinflation like situation.

Print more

[midas]

Obama's home state and he cant even fix this ?

[12DrinkMore]

The following does not need any comment from me.

John F. Kennedy held a dinner in the white House for a group of the brightest minds in the nation at that time. He made the following statement: "This is perhaps the assembly of the most intelligence ever to gather at one time in the White House with the exception of when Thomas Jefferson dined alone."

Thomas Jefferson Quotes:

"When we get piled upon one another in large cities, as in Europe, we shall become as corrupt as Europe."

"The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not."

"It is incumbent on every generation to pay its own debts as it goes. A principle which if acted on would save one-half the wars of the world."

"I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them."

"My reading of history convinces me that most bad government results from too much government."

"No free man shall ever be debarred the use of arms."

"The strongest reason for the people to retain the right to keep and bear arms is, as a last resort, to protect themselves against tyranny in government."

"The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants."

"To compel a man to subsidize with his taxes the propagation of ideas which he disbelieves and abhors is sinful and tyrannical."

In 1802, possibly Jefferson´s most famous quote:

"I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around the banks will deprive the people of all property - until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered."

A man with honesty, integrity and a clear vision. A man you won't find walking the corridors of power anymore.

Edited July 16, 2010 by 12DrinkMore

[12DrinkMore]

And now for something totally depressing

22 Statistics That Prove The Middle Class Is Being Systematically Wiped Out Of Existence In America

http://www.businessinsider.com/22-statistics-that-prove-the-middle-class-is-being-systematically-wiped-out-of-existence-in-america-2010-7#83-percent-of-all-us-stocks-are-in-the-hands-of-1-percent-of-the-people-1

[midas]

I seem to remember prize for the most irritating expression of 2009 was easily won by 'green shoots'. I suspect the winner for 2010 will be 'double dip'. (Unless 12D succeeds with his plan to establish 'decade of thrift' which is incredibly irritating when it is only mentioned once.)

There seems a lot of talk about 'double dip' (I am a believer myself), lots of stuff to worry about - stock markets, house prices, euro area stability, fiscal austerity, Chinese asset prices and Obama's mental health. Everyone is jumping on every bad figure - I think Midas has even convinced himself there wasn't even any recovery. However, it is interesting that no credible economist is actually 'forecasting' a double dip. The bears - Krugman, Roubini etc are talking about 'risks' to recovery.

And there is good reason for this.

Incorrect Abrak !

1. Roubini himself is saying we are already back in recession :-

The Global Double Dip Has Arrived

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-global-double-dip-has-arrived-2010-7

2. David Rosenberg is considered quite credible( chief economist and strategist for Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc., )and is far more so than than wannabe poltician and media hungry Krugman

" The ECRI Leading Economic Index just dropped to a fresh reading of 120.6 (flat from a previously revised 121.5 as the Columbia profs scramble to create at least a neutral inflection point): this is now a -9.8 drop, and based on empirical evidence presented previously by David Rosenberg, and also confirming all the macro economic data seen in the past two months, virtually assures that the US economy is now fully in a double dip recession scenario."It is one thing to slip to or fractionally below the zero line, but a -3.5% reading has only sent off two head-fakes in the past, while accurately foreshadowing seven recessions — with a three month lag "

Edited July 17, 2010 by midas

[flying]

And now for something totally depressing

That is depressing isn't it?

For the first time in U.S. history, banks own a greater share of residential housing net worth in the United States than all individual Americans put together.

In 1950, the ratio of the average executive's paycheck to the average worker's paycheck was about 30 to 1. Since the year 2000, that ratio has exploded to between 300 to 500 to one.

Also we seem to pay the govt. workers very well dont we?

In the United States, the average federal worker now earns 60% MORE than the average worker in the private sector.

Edited July 17, 2010 by flying

[12DrinkMore]

This hasn't been mentioned for a while.Another six robust and healthy US financial institutions have run out of cash. Nearly up to 100 failed banks this year, probably reach each this milestone next Friday.

Here's the complete list,

http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/banklist.html

and to to save you the work

2000-2007 : 27

2008 : 25

2009 :140

2010 : 96 to July 16th.

Wonder if they can increase the rate slightly so that we can finish the year on a nice round 200?

[BlackJack]

The following does not need any comment from me.

John F. Kennedy held a dinner in the white House for a group of the brightest minds in the nation at that time. He made the following statement: "This is perhaps the assembly of the most intelligence ever to gather at one time in the White House with the exception of when Thomas Jefferson dined alone."

Thomas Jefferson Quotes:

"When we get piled upon one another in large cities, as in Europe, we shall become as corrupt as Europe."

"The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not."

"It is incumbent on every generation to pay its own debts as it goes. A principle which if acted on would save one-half the wars of the world."

"I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them."

"My reading of history convinces me that most bad government results from too much government."

"No free man shall ever be debarred the use of arms."

"The strongest reason for the people to retain the right to keep and bear arms is, as a last resort, to protect themselves against tyranny in government."

"The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants."

"To compel a man to subsidize with his taxes the propagation of ideas which he disbelieves and abhors is sinful and tyrannical."

In 1802, possibly Jefferson´s most famous quote:

"I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around the banks will deprive the people of all property - until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered."

A man with honesty, integrity and a clear vision. A man you won't find walking the corridors of power anymore.

thats why they shot him and his brother

no man shall stand in the way of the bankers

[Abrak]

1. Roubini himself is saying we are already back in recession :-

The Global Double Dip Has Arrived

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-global-double-dip-has-arrived-2010-7

2. David Rosenberg is considered quite credible( chief economist and strategist for Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc., )and is far more so than than wannabe poltician and media hungry Krugman

" The ECRI Leading Economic Index just dropped to a fresh reading of 120.6 (flat from a previously revised 121.5 as the Columbia profs scramble to create at least a neutral inflection point): this is now a -9.8 drop, and based on empirical evidence presented previously by David Rosenberg, and also confirming all the macro economic data seen in the past two months, virtually assures that the US economy is now fully in a double dip recession scenario."It is one thing to slip to or fractionally below the zero line, but a -3.5% reading has only sent off two head-fakes in the past, while accurately foreshadowing seven recessions — with a three month lag "

Despite the headline, if you read the article, you will see that Roubini believes that industrial nations are 'headed for a protracted period of anemic, sub-trend growth.'

Same applies for Rosenberg from what I know. While gives a lot of pointers towards the possibility of renewed recession, I believe he is forecasting economic growth for the US next year. However, to be fair to Rosenberg, even if he is forecasting growth through next year, he has been pretty clear in his view that the US is heading back into recession.

I would also be a little bit cautious in terms of exactly what that ECRI number is telling you. As you can see it is a percentage change of a leading indicator index. The problem is that post the depths of the recession, the ECRI numbers, particularly the USLLI went totally ballistic and hit an all time high (63 years) in September 2009. It was bound to come off and has been falling for 9 months consecutively.

Finally you are quoting David Rosenberg very much second hand. His exact comments on the ECRI numbers....

"The consensus is looking at 3% real GDP growth for the second half of the year, but as Chart 2 suggests, the two quarters following a move in the ECRI to a -5% to -10% range is +0.8% at an annual rate on average. So right now the choice is really either a 2002-style growth relapse or an outright double-dip recession – pick your poison."

This last point I mention because the ECRI numbers are not meant to be 3 month indicators, more like 9-12 month indicators. They bottomed in Jan 2009 well before the stockmarket which is also a lead economic indicator. The reason I believe even the most bearish of economists are a little scared about forecasting a return to 'outright' recession, is on all the numbers growth on a quarterly basis appears very unlikely to turn negative until 1Q 2011 at the earliest.

[Abrak]

And now for something totally depressing

22 Statistics That Prove The Middle Class Is Being Systematically Wiped Out Of Existence In America

http://www.businessinsider.com/22-statistics-that-prove-the-middle-class-is-being-systematically-wiped-out-of-existence-in-america-2010-7#83-percent-of-all-us-stocks-are-in-the-hands-of-1-percent-of-the-people-1

Yes, though the really interesting stats come out if you adjust things to the 'median' rather than the 'mean'. There are essentially so many very wealthy and very high earners that the mean is totally misleading.

If you ever want to read a book on the annihilation of the US middle classes and the collapse of the 'American Dream' - The Two Income Trap by 'Elizabeth Warren' - is not only a great read 'you will finish it within a day' but a real shocker.

[midas]

Finally you are quoting David Rosenberg very much second hand. His exact comments on the ECRI numbers....

"The consensus is looking at 3% real GDP growth for the second half of the year, but as Chart 2 suggests, the two quarters following a move in the ECRI to a -5% to -10% range is +0.8% at an annual rate on average. So right now the choice is really either a 2002-style growth relapse or an outright double-dip recession – pick your poison."

This last point I mention because the ECRI numbers are not meant to be 3 month indicators, more like 9-12 month indicators. They bottomed in Jan 2009 well before the stockmarket which is also a lead economic indicator. The reason I believe even the most bearish of economists are a little scared about forecasting a return to 'outright' recession, is on all the numbers growth on a quarterly basis appears very unlikely to turn negative until 1Q 2011 at the earliest.

Well ECRI makes a good picture anyway

[Abrak]

Well ECRI makes a good picture anyway

Yes I agree. But it does prove my point. The Y index is percentage change. At September last year it essentially seems to point to the strongest economic growth recovery in the last 40 years.

Clearly this has not been the case. So, I tend to look at that upward spike as misleading and think one should be a little weary in terms of fall off. Also note the time lags between the peaks and the recessions.

P.S. I do not think this indicator has bottomed yet.

Edited July 17, 2010 by Abrak