Financial Crisis

[churchill]

IMF NOW talking more easing

Lagarde should have been a gymnast

Are we going to get more fudge from the coming EU meeting . yet again to discuss which path to follow ....

Europe's leaders to tackle growth at summit

http://www.aljazeera...1541787603.html

World Bank also pushing more easing ..

China must act to prevent hard landing: World Bank

http://www.bangkokpo...ding-world-bank

Pressure being applied .....

Could a big QE announcement be coming ..

or we on the non leadership .. pretend everything is ok route .

and at least if they cannot agree what to do .. they should at least try to give the impression that they know what they are doing ..

Loose talk is destroying the euro zone

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/loose-talk-is-destroying-the-euro-zone-2012-05-22?link=MW_latest_news

Edited May 23, 2012 by churchill

[Naam]

Where can one put their money that is both safe and pays a good return?

Did any such place ever exist?

As for the crisis....we ain't seen nothing yet.

unless anyone thinks can kicking was something

yes Flying, a lot of these places existed. unfortunately these times are gone

[Naam]

should "GRexit" happen then neiter "fasten seatbelts" nor physical gold under the mattress will prevent book losses. apllicable might be to follow the command "helmets off, kneel down for prayers!"

[Naam]

where are the "US-dollar demise aroung the corner!" gloom&doomers nowadays?

[12DrinkMore]

I am beginning to realise that there is not going to be an end to this crisis. At some point TPTB will surely have to call it something different. We can't have the peeps constantly under the idea they are in a crisis, can we? I wonder how the renaming process will proceed?

Four years down the line and over THREE years of this thread, and not only has effectively nothing been fixed, but we are still talking about more stimulation to get growth moving again. And the measures called for are simply pushing against a string. No takers for debt, no economic growth.

I really think we have reached the end of growth in the west.

Sure there will be isolated pockets, such as Germany, Norway and Sweden.

But when Christine comes along and lectures Osborne on MORE stimulation I wonder what, on earth, we are really trying to stimulate? With interest rates at 0.5%, will a drop to 0.25% make any <deleted> difference whatsoever to anybody in the 'real economy' outside of the finance sector? I don't think so.

And then the IMF blathers on that another 100,000,000,000 of this QE thing could fix it for the UK. Well, will it? Based on what, exactly? Presumably the results of the previous 325,000,000,000 quids' worth of "easing". Which have not managed to produce a single shoot of recovery that I have seen.

All this QE does is artificially support the stock and bond markets, keeping interest rates down and allowing the government deficits to be flogged into the market.

But I've already said it. QE, the monetisation of government deficits is here to stay. It is the New Financial System, only they haven't announced it yet. But I now fully expect to see at some point in the future they will announce something like

Due to the success of the government's efforts in cooperation with the Central Bank we have decided that the expansion of the Central Bank's balance sheet has proven a key factor in our economy progress. In view of this we have decided, along with the support of the IMF, that we shall continue to pursue this policy. We feel sure that this will lead to the resume of economic growth, and provide more real jobs for real people. The government feels confident that this will also support the housing market, which has been ailing slightly in recent years and lead to renewed growth in consumer goods sales.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9283539/Christine-Lagarde-tells-Britain-to-step-up-recovery-plan.html

Well to the Japanese disease

Monetarists say that Japan's 20-year battle with stagnation is a warning to the West. The country failed to purge its banks swiftly and relied on Keynesian fiscal projects to prime pump the economy each time growth stalled.

The result was a string of false dawns, with public debt ratcheting ever upwards. The Bank of Japan dabbled with quantitative easing, but too little and too late. The bonds were purchased from a moribund banking system, a recipe for failure since this has little effect on the M3 money supply. "Japan was never early enough or ambitious enough in its use of monetary stimulus," said Jamie Dannhauser from Lombard Street Research.

It let asset prices slide, and let nominal GDP contract. The result has been rising debt on a shrinking economic base. "Once this starts it is very hard to stop. That is the danger for Ireland and Spain," he said.

For Japan, the lost decades are turning into a lost century.

If the Japanese haven't gotten themselves out of the mire in 20 years, during which time the world's economies exhibited unprecedented growth, what chance due you reckon the the western economies have of pulling themselves up to prosperity beyond their incomes?

NONE WHATSOEVER.

NONE AT ALL.

But at least the Japanese are doing a fair bit to reduce the anthropogenic impact on the world's resources.

Tokyo expects the population to fall from 128m in 2010 to 87m by 2060.

Jeeze, that doesn't bode well for the real estate business.

Don't invest in Tokyo properties, I reckon.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9283417/Japans-fiscal-death-is-a-warning-to-the-West.html

[cmsally]

Difficult to know what's going on. Cameron trying to lecture the Europeans and then we see the head of the IMF giving the Brit govt a lecture.We presume that the IMF is on the Euro side. Lagarde was actually a syncronised swimmer - so almost a gymnast!

It now seems clear that the recent bolster in IMF funds was an indirect method of supporting the Euro.

It seems that the opinion is now that it is not allowed to fail at any cost..

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international-business/imf-chief-christine-lagarde-warns-of-greek-euro-exit-contamination/articleshow/13408658.cms

[12DrinkMore]

Have the Irish gone completely delusional?

http://www.telegraph...n-property.html

Ireland's state-run "bad bank", which buys toxic mortgages from debt-plagued lenders, is to invest a minimum of €2bn in building projects.

"Subject to suitable opportunities arising, we plan to invest at least €2bn in Ireland in development capital in order to preserve, enhance and complete commercial and residential projects in Ireland over the period to 2016.

"This includes the completion of properties which are currently under development but, more importantly, it means the development of land in anticipation of future supply shortages and demand."

WHAT????

[midas]

It now seems clear that the recent bolster in IMF funds was an indirect method of supporting the Euro.

but where did the IMF money get their money from.... ?

It is a laughable farce

This is all it is

Edited May 23, 2012 by midas

[12DrinkMore]

but where did the IMF money get their money from.... ?

Scotty will beam the aliens down.

They'll have some bailout funds, for sure.

[cmsally]

Well at the last bolster for IMF funds I seem to remember the Japs, Brits and Aussies coughed up plus a few more.

The US had done the dollar swap thingys with the ECB so were exempted.

Now we have the IMF telling us to make more money by QE to replace that money we gave to them. Duh

Seems a bit silly doesn't it?

[cmsally]

Have the Irish gone completely delusional?

http://www.telegraph...n-property.html

Ireland's state-run "bad bank", which buys toxic mortgages from debt-plagued lenders, is to invest a minimum of €2bn in building projects.

"Subject to suitable opportunities arising, we plan to invest at least €2bn in Ireland in development capital in order to preserve, enhance and complete commercial and residential projects in Ireland over the period to 2016.

"This includes the completion of properties which are currently under development but, more importantly, it means the development of land in anticipation of future supply shortages and demand."

WHAT????

A bit like all those "big fat gypsy weddings" . You always have to wonder where the money comes from to rent those big stretch limos etc.

[flying]

where are the "US-dollar demise aroung the corner!" gloom&doomers nowadays?

Well as I said before what we *think* is logical & what the market does is two separate issues

As for myself I am happy to see the $$ rise for now.....You know why

[yoshiwara]

Difficult to know what's going on. Cameron trying to lecture the Europeans and then we see the head of the IMF giving the Brit govt a lecture.We presume that the IMF is on the Euro side. Lagarde was actually a syncronised swimmer - so almost a gymnast!

It now seems clear that the recent bolster in IMF funds was an indirect method of supporting the Euro.

It seems that the opinion is now that it is not allowed to fail at any cost..

http://economictimes...ow/13408658.cms

Listening to the Director-General of the OECD this week, a bit of a blow-hard. Not impressed. Lagarde is smarter and can make a difference but she is gingerly trying to position herself between Merkel and Hollande. This is the main menu. The historic role of France in the EU is to ponce off the Germans and Hollande stands foursquare in this tradition. The fight for 'growth' is a thinly disguised defence of the public sector which cannot be afforded except through Germany paying. The Greek parties are playing a dance of musical chairs and don't have any intention of paying, ever. The only job is to get that firewall up and push the Greeks into a dual currency. The markets are having a hissy-fit but they shall just have to wait. US Dollars are the place of safety and German Bonds, but anyone can pile up $US.

[Naam]

where are the "US-dollar demise aroung the corner!" gloom&doomers nowadays?

Well as I said before what we *think* is logical & what the market does is two separate issues

As for myself I am happy to see the $$ rise for now.....You know why

of course i know. for you its even a double whammy, namely gold and USDTHB

[churchill]

where are the "US-dollar demise aroung the corner!" gloom&doomers nowadays?

Well as I said before what we *think* is logical & what the market does is two separate issues

As for myself I am happy to see the $$ rise for now.....You know why

of course i know. for you its even a double whammy, namely gold and USDTHB

don't get caught though ....Gold does not always obey the rules ....

[Orac]

... snip

But at least the Japanese are doing a fair bit to reduce the anthropogenic impact on the world's resources.

Tokyo expects the population to fall from 128m in 2010 to 87m by 2060.

Jeeze, that doesn't bode well for the real estate business.

Don't invest in Tokyo properties, I reckon.

http://www.telegraph...o-the-West.html

George Friedmans book 'The Next 100 Years' which gives some very thought provoking predictions for the 21st century identifies the decline in population as being the single most important factor. It also points out how people overemphasise situations in the present.

Well worth a read as it makes some pretty bold assertions and backs them up with good analysis.

[midas]

... snip

But at least the Japanese are doing a fair bit to reduce the anthropogenic impact on the world's resources.

Tokyo expects the population to fall from 128m in 2010 to 87m by 2060.

Jeeze, that doesn't bode well for the real estate business.

Don't invest in Tokyo properties, I reckon.

http://www.telegraph...o-the-West.html

George Friedmans book 'The Next 100 Years' which gives some very thought provoking predictions for the 21st century identifies the decline in population as being the single most important factor. It also points out how people overemphasise situations in the present.

Well worth a read as it makes some pretty bold assertions and backs them up with good analysis.

how is possible to overemphasise a genuine concern by some

that people are getting away with the same degree of financial fraud and

criminal activity today as they were in 2008 without any

retribution? No overemphasis just a simple question how and why

can this still be happening ?

in these 2 PBS videos they even say they know exactly where the

MF Global money is and yet nothing happens ??

Frontline On MF Global's Six Billion Dollar Bet

http://www.zerohedge...lion-dollar-bet

Edited May 24, 2012 by midas

[Orac]

... snip

But at least the Japanese are doing a fair bit to reduce the anthropogenic impact on the world's resources.

Tokyo expects the population to fall from 128m in 2010 to 87m by 2060.

Jeeze, that doesn't bode well for the real estate business.

Don't invest in Tokyo properties, I reckon.

http://www.telegraph...o-the-West.html

George Friedmans book 'The Next 100 Years' which gives some very thought provoking predictions for the 21st century identifies the decline in population as being the single most important factor. It also points out how people overemphasise situations in the present.

Well worth a read as it makes some pretty bold assertions and backs them up with good analysis.

how is possible to overemphasise a genuine concern by some

that people are getting away with the same degree of financial fraud and

criminal activity today as they were in 2008 without any

retribution? No overemphasis just a simple question how and why

can this still be happening ?

in these 2 PBS videos they even say they know exactly where the

MF Global money is and yet nothing happens ??

Frontline On MF Global's Six Billion Dollar Bet

http://www.zerohedge...lion-dollar-bet

Since it was written back in 2009 he was not refering to the specific situation we are in today but more a generalised feeling that things appear worse than they actually are at the time and consequently there is a tendancy to overreact though his prediction is for a major crisis for the US around 2030 based on a 50 year cycle - the last being in early 80's where there was inflation over 10 per cent, interest rates at 19-20 per cent and 10 per cent unemployment.

I can see some truth in his arguments if you look back at previous problems that, in hindsight, were not as bad as it seemed at the time. By rights I should already dead from AIDs, SARs or Bird Flu, the world would have run out of oil, we would be in a new ice age/desert/underwater and just recovering from the dark ages when everything stopped working due to the millenium bug.

[midas]

George Friedmans book 'The Next 100 Years' which gives some very thought provoking predictions for the 21st century identifies the decline in population as being the single most important factor. It also points out how people overemphasise situations in the present.

Well worth a read as it makes some pretty bold assertions and backs them up with good analysis.

how is possible to overemphasise a genuine concern by some

that people are getting away with the same degree of financial fraud and

criminal activity today as they were in 2008 without any

retribution? No overemphasis just a simple question how and why

can this still be happening ?

in these 2 PBS videos they even say they know exactly where the

MF Global money is and yet nothing happens ??

Frontline On MF Global's Six Billion Dollar Bet

http://www.zerohedge...lion-dollar-bet

Since it was written back in 2009 he was not refering to the specific situation we are in today but more a generalised feeling that things appear worse than they actually are at the time and consequently there is a tendancy to overreact though his prediction is for a major crisis for the US around 2030 based on a 50 year cycle - the last being in early 80's where there was inflation over 10 per cent, interest rates at 19-20 per cent and 10 per cent unemployment.

I can see some truth in his arguments if you look back at previous problems that, in hindsight, were not as bad as it seemed at the time. By rights I should already dead from AIDs, SARs or Bird Flu, the world would have run out of oil, we would be in a new ice age/desert/underwater and just recovering from the dark ages when everything stopped working due to the millenium bug.

personally speaking after reading some of the reviews about this book

I agree with those that thought trying to predict what will happen over 100 years is too ambitious.

I believe Gerald Celente does a better job because he extrapolates from what

is happening right now and his predictions are more relevant

and less idealistic

[12DrinkMore]

I just posted this

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/557479-warning-fake-bt1000-and-bt100-banknotes-circulating-in-thailand/page__pid__5328516__st__75#entry5328516

Quote

He (a policeman) also said that these (fake) banknotes will damage the local economy.

I wonder if that is indeed the case? The guy simply does not understand economics.

Now, if you gauge the health of the economy by the amount of goods and services that are being sold, then by injecting a bit of extra cash into the local economy it would give a boost as, there will be a little more money sloshing around. Provided the counterfeiters don't go overboard, they could even grow the local economy into a boom, as with the extra cash more infrastructure would be built, more people would gain employment.

The problem would be if they pushed too much too quickly, causing the rate of increase of demand to exceed the rate of increase of production leading to inflation.

I think that a healthy dose of perfectly made THB1000 would increase the wealth of the local economy. In much the same way that by sending real THB 1000 from Pattaya to Nackonelsewhere the economy of Nackonelsewhere is given a boost.

So, who are the losers in this?

1. the Treasury, as it loses the seigniorage from printing the notes, but that is not a significant source of income, as when the old banknotes are taken out of circulation that money is refunded to the commercial banks.

2. the commercial banks, as the money comes directly into circulation without putting someone into debt and paying interest.

So, (hope I'm not going to be banned for this )

The counterfeiters should carry on, as the main losers are the bloody commercial banks

And, if you don't believe me, here is an interesting factlet.

Only about 3% of the money in the western economies has been issued by the government. All the rest has been created by, and for the profit of, the bloody commercial banks through lending it into existence.

Take the Greeks. Once the banks take it into their heads to withdraw funding, they can send an entire country in massive depression. What Greece needs now is a print of EUR 100 counterfeit notes and passed into the economy, putting cash into the hands of the jobless and destitute, so they can once again buy stuff, and even pay off the bankers.

[12DrinkMore]

Just spend five minutes of your life watching this.

It explains a lot.

[churchill]

This sounds more like a whirlpool crisis .....

US Decides to Backstop the Anglo-American Derivatives Exchanges with Fed Dollars - 'Too Big To Fail'

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2012/05/us-decides-to-backstop-anglo-american.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+JessesCafeAmericain+%28Jesse%27s+Café+Américain%29

Why would they do that !!!

[flying]

This sounds more like a whirlpool crisis .....

US Decides to Backstop the Anglo-American Derivatives Exchanges with Fed Dollars - 'Too Big To Fail'

http://jessescrossro...Café Américain)

Why would they do that !!!

I think because while many talk about a future world currency it is in fact long been a reality thru Central Banking.

They all realize the contagion possibility.

Who better than the wizards of printing to help create more illusion of repair

[12DrinkMore]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9291701/Greeks-facing-payback-time-for-tax-dodging-IMF-chief-Christine-Lagarde-says.html

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x6cW779sBF8&feature=related

[churchill]

European Union Considering Fund For Ailing Banks, Times Says

http://www.bloomberg...times-says.html

So a fund will be set up to guarantee the cash deposits of tax payers from funds backed by those same tax payers ..

Money out of thin air comes to mind , or printing or qe ..easing

But whatever they decide to do .. get on with it ! before ....!

The Euro Awaits Its Verdict

http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/the-euro-awaits-its-verdict

Edited May 27, 2012 by churchill

[yoshiwara]

It will be a fascinating next three weeks. My money is on Angela Merkel holding her nerve. Whether Hollande will is another matter.

[Naam]

European Union Considering Fund For Ailing Banks, Times Says

http://www.bloomberg...times-says.html

So a fund will be set up to guarantee the cash deposits of tax payers from funds backed by those same tax payers ..

Money out of thin air comes to mind , or printing or qe ..easing

the Sunday Times reported, without saying where it got the information.

sources familiar with EU internal politics revealed on a boring sunday that yada yada yakety-yak the European Union considers yada yada bla-bla-bla enabling Churchill to add his personal comments.... out of thin air

[Naam]

It will be a fascinating next three weeks. My money is on Angela Merkel holding her nerve. Whether Hollande will is another matter.

without Merkel anything concerning EU debt/finances is a stillborn baby. but somehow i have the feeling that she might cave in even though politically she is between a rock and a hard place, not to forget the federal elections next year.

[churchill]

European Union Considering Fund For Ailing Banks, Times Says

http://www.bloomberg...times-says.html

So a fund will be set up to guarantee the cash deposits of tax payers from funds backed by those same tax payers ..

Money out of thin air comes to mind , or printing or qe ..easing

the Sunday Times reported, without saying where it got the information.

sources familiar with EU internal politics revealed on a boring sunday that yada yada yakety-yak the European Union considers yada yada bla-bla-bla enabling Churchill to add his personal comments.... out of thin air

[meand]

If I now feel this way, then, once the immensity of what is about to hit the UK in particular, including all the 1,000,000 ex pat pensioners and their families, where will it lead to? The Icelandic government is besieged, in Greece there have been riots. The Brits can take a lot, but once they get riled then the fighting becomes very bitter.

Do you really think that the people have kept their sense, and ability to revolt ? Good for you, it leaves some hope. As for myself, I don't.

General De Gaulle was right. Speaking about the french people he says : "The french are... veals". I know, not very nice, but so true.

People are passive, with a liquefied brain.

Panem et circenses.

Why they made a revolution in 1789 ? Because no bread... But today ? Even with a very deep crisis, they will keep their pint of beer, some KFC or McDonald, and some TV show or football matches... Largely enough to keep them quiet.

I totally agree. Modern day "slavery" (ie debt) is too numbing, and gives people the illusion that one day it will all be ok, if they just keep working hard. It is almost worse than actual slavery in a way -- at least when there were slaves there was something to inspire a revolution. What would the average joe rather do, turn on his credit bought 42 inch plasma and watch kim kardashian's ass bounce around with a coors light in his hand, or start a revolution. The answer to that is evident, and will be for quite some time.