Financial Crisis

[Naam]

for the sake of France and all of us...

a good one Cheeryble! should France go down the drain those of us who have served and are invested anywhere will remember the command "helmets off... kneel down for prayer!"

Agreed France will forever survive , but likes its unions and the Euro , neither help ... tant pis

and Hollande ca va pas

Will there ever be a reformer in France like Margaret T ....I cannot see it ... jamais

and If they were not tied to the Euro peut-etre

But Germany rules ..Alors

Deutschland über alles. encore les allemands boches... merde alors!

Edited April 9, 2013 by Naam

[Naam]

France's economy is at near-stall speed, trade and budget deficits widened last month and the country is embroiled in increasing political uncertainty .

The Bank of France forecast on Tuesday that the French economy posted growth of 0.1 percent in the first quarter of 2013, in line with its estimates, meaning that the euro zone's second largest economy will have narrowly averted recession after its economy contracted by 0.3 percent in the last quarter of 2012.

But such low growth could lead France's government to miss its budget deficit targets, which are based on growth of 0.8 percent this year.

more...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/france-faces-devastating-scandal-economy-102202893.html

[midas]

I have all reasons to believe that France is very close to an economic collapse,

voilà manarak

this article today perfectly timed with your predictions

"France Is On The Brink of A Secondary Depression "

I like this paragraph ……………..

“At its core, France’s economic malaise is a failure of public morality. The public sector elites not only detest the

private sector, but they also believe that it is a higher calling to steal money from entrepreneurs and give it to civil servants. Suffice to say this moral bankruptcy of the body politic means the situation is intractable—when

the population is bombarded with propaganda that wealth creation is somehow dirty, while it is morally permissible for the state to expropriate all private gains, it will be hard to build an environment for economic growth.”

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-09/charles-gave-france-brink-secondary-depression

AND surely you could also apply this word for word to Barack Obama’s administration?

Edited April 9, 2013 by midas

[manarak]

Mr Gave is spot on, I read his earlier essays on the topic.

We have very similar views, especially regarding that paragraph you quoted, I couldn't have put it better!

Edited April 9, 2013 by manarak

[baboon]

I have all reasons to believe that France is very close to an economic collapse, which will also have severe repercussions on Spain, Portugal and Italy, as well as Germany.

The crisis France is running into might be unrecoverable under its current economic system, i.e. I believe it is very likely that France's borrow rates will hike up and put France into unrecoverable credit crunch.

The key indicator for this is industrial production.

I want to profit from these events if they happen.

Of course I will not hold EUR and linked currencies (I expect the Swiss to kill their healthy currency to maintain acceptable rates for their exporting industries).

But beyond this, what can I do to make money if I'm right?

You want to profit from the poverty and misery of those not as smart as yourself? You sound like a lovely chap. Enjoy your winnings.

[lannarebirth]

You may be smarter and more able.....but why? What's your advantage?

I have a twice exceptional mind (light Asperger's syndrome with high IQ), which gives me a special ability to see big pictures and how things are interconnected more easily than others.

These qualities you possess, I have found to be very beneficial for long term investing, but wholly useless, even detrimental, in trading, especially when it is central banks that are the counterparty. Good Luck

Edited April 9, 2013 by lannarebirth

[manarak]

You may be smarter and more able.....but why? What's your advantage?

I have a twice exceptional mind (light Asperger's syndrome with high IQ), which gives me a special ability to see big pictures and how things are interconnected more easily than others.

These qualities you possess, I have found to be very beneficial for long term investing, but wholly useless, even detrimental, in trading, especially when it is central banks that are the counterparty. Good Luck

I'm not trading - my investment horizon spans from 1 month to 1 year, I'm mainly riding trends and doing early trend detection (which my post on France is about).

Of course, I can hold positions for shorter spans if the objectives have been reached or if I get a funny feeling that I might be wrong.

Edited April 10, 2013 by manarak

[manarak]

I have all reasons to believe that France is very close to an economic collapse, which will also have severe repercussions on Spain, Portugal and Italy, as well as Germany.

The crisis France is running into might be unrecoverable under its current economic system, i.e. I believe it is very likely that France's borrow rates will hike up and put France into unrecoverable credit crunch.

The key indicator for this is industrial production.

I want to profit from these events if they happen.

Of course I will not hold EUR and linked currencies (I expect the Swiss to kill their healthy currency to maintain acceptable rates for their exporting industries).

But beyond this, what can I do to make money if I'm right?

You want to profit from the poverty and misery of those not as smart as yourself? You sound like a lovely chap. Enjoy your winnings.

Thank you, I'm also reliable and honest.

I have never screwed anyone doing business with me and I'm upfront about everything, and I help others where I can.

Regarding people's poverty or misery: they brought it upon themselves without my help, and my actions don't make it worse.

On financial markets there is always someone losing out on something.

In bull markets it's immoral to profit from the work of the laborers, and in bear markets it's immoral to profit from the depression and from laborers losing their jobs.

Self righteous persons are always first pointing their moral fingers towards people that were smart enough to anticipate the results of stupid policies implemented by daft politicians they elected.

Who did you vote for?

[manarak]

To come back to my question about the right instrument to trade, much time has passed since my MONEP and MATIF times.

I found the following news release:

http://www.efinancialnews.com/story/2013-02-11/eurex-expands-french-bond-futures

the FOAT might be the right product to trade:

http://www.eurexchange.com/exchange-en/products/int/fix/154590/

looks like institutionals signalled the EUREX their interest to trade French debt!

I will observe trends on the FOAT, because it has done quite a jump upward in the last days.

Edited April 10, 2013 by manarak

[manarak]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/06/us-france-bonds-idUSBRE8B50NY20121206

French borrowing costs at all-time low.

Hmmm.... debt at all time high, and borrowing costs at all time low...

And France has no chance of keeping its premises on deficit, and everyone knows it.

Obviously, the French bonds are selling because their yield is higher than German Bonds', and maybe also because through the ECB system, their bonity is at the end guaranteed by Germany?

Do we witness arbitrage and/or a rescue of France by Germany lowering its borrowing cost through ECB funding?

What do you think?

Edited April 10, 2013 by manarak

[Naam]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/06/us-france-bonds-idUSBRE8B50NY20121206

French borrowing costs at all-time low.

Hmmm.... debt at all time high, and borrowing costs at all time low...

And France has no chance of keeping its premises on deficit, and everyone knows it.

Obviously, the French bonds are selling because their yield is higher than German Bonds', and maybe also because through the ECB system, their bonity is at the end guaranteed by Germany?

Do we witness arbitrage and/or a rescue of France by Germany lowering its borrowing cost through ECB funding?

What do you think?

ECB funding and whatever is required. listen to Draghi.

[Naam]

I have all reasons to believe that France is very close to an economic collapse, which will also have severe repercussions on Spain, Portugal and Italy, as well as Germany.

The crisis France is running into might be unrecoverable under its current economic system, i.e. I believe it is very likely that France's borrow rates will hike up and put France into unrecoverable credit crunch.

The key indicator for this is industrial production.

I want to profit from these events if they happen.

Of course I will not hold EUR and linked currencies (I expect the Swiss to kill their healthy currency to maintain acceptable rates for their exporting industries).

But beyond this, what can I do to make money if I'm right?

You want to profit from the poverty and misery of those not as smart as yourself? You sound like a lovely chap. Enjoy your winnings.

Thank you, I'm also reliable and honest.

I have never screwed anyone doing business with me and I'm upfront about everything, and I help others where I can.

Regarding people's poverty or misery: they brought it upon themselves without my help, and my actions don't make it worse.

On financial markets there is always someone losing out on something.

In bull markets it's immoral to profit from the work of the laborers, and in bear markets it's immoral to profit from the depression and from laborers losing their jobs.

Self righteous persons are always first pointing their moral fingers towards people that were smart enough to anticipate the results of stupid policies implemented by daft politicians they elected.

Who did you vote for?

it's a waste of time to answer these kind of postings Manarak!

[cheeryble]

Manarak

Others have noticed France's shortcomings.

Les cheese-eating surrender monkeys ont besoin d'encore un Madame T:

Breaking News
EU intensifies reform pressure on France Brussels turned up the pressure on the French government to overhaul the country’s sputtering economy more quickly, issuing a stinging report on Wednesday that argues President François Hollande’s reform efforts thus far have been insufficient to restore the country’s competitiveness.

The report, one of 13 issued on the EU’s most troubled countries outside the four in full-scale bailouts, warned that France’s shrinking share of global exports and diminishing growth prospects are likely to continue unless more is done to make the country’s labour market more flexible.

http://link.ft.com/r/TWK799/9MQF7A/OJCXJX/EXZE7Q/K9OZWQ/RF/h?a1=2013&a2=4&a3=10

Edited April 10, 2013 by cheeryble

[manarak]

I have all reasons to believe that France is very close to an economic collapse, which will also have severe repercussions on Spain, Portugal and Italy, as well as Germany.

The crisis France is running into might be unrecoverable under its current economic system, i.e. I believe it is very likely that France's borrow rates will hike up and put France into unrecoverable credit crunch.

The key indicator for this is industrial production.

I want to profit from these events if they happen.

Of course I will not hold EUR and linked currencies (I expect the Swiss to kill their healthy currency to maintain acceptable rates for their exporting industries).

But beyond this, what can I do to make money if I'm right?

You want to profit from the poverty and misery of those not as smart as yourself? You sound like a lovely chap. Enjoy your winnings.

Thank you, I'm also reliable and honest.

I have never screwed anyone doing business with me and I'm upfront about everything, and I help others where I can.

Regarding people's poverty or misery: they brought it upon themselves without my help, and my actions don't make it worse.

On financial markets there is always someone losing out on something.

In bull markets it's immoral to profit from the work of the laborers, and in bear markets it's immoral to profit from the depression and from laborers losing their jobs.

Self righteous persons are always first pointing their moral fingers towards people that were smart enough to anticipate the results of stupid policies implemented by daft politicians they elected.

Who did you vote for?

it's a waste of time to answer these kind of postings Manarak!

Where you are right, you are right (pardon the germanism)

[manarak]

Manarak

Others have noticed France's shortcomings.

Les cheese-eating surrender monkeys ont besoin d'encore un Madame T:

Breaking News

EU intensifies reform pressure on France Brussels turned up the pressure on the French government to overhaul the country’s sputtering economy more quickly, issuing a stinging report on Wednesday that argues President François Hollande’s reform efforts thus far have been insufficient to restore the country’s competitiveness.

The report, one of 13 issued on the EU’s most troubled countries outside the four in full-scale bailouts, warned that France’s shrinking share of global exports and diminishing growth prospects are likely to continue unless more is done to make the country’s labour market more flexible.

http://link.ft.com/r/TWK799/9MQF7A/OJCXJX/EXZE7Q/K9OZWQ/RF/h?a1=2013&a2=4&a3=10

errrm... what do they mean, "more quickly"? like double the speed, triple the speed?

2 x 0 = 3 x 0 = remains zero!

all they did so far is up the taxes and social fees as well as maybe lengthening the work time before people can claim full pensions... which has little use because they will spend these extra months in unemployment!

French rates at German risk... for how long?

Edited April 10, 2013 by manarak

[mccw]

http://bbc.co.uk/news/business-22089634

Not to forget Spain plus the other meds just keep on getting worse. Maybe bail in for them before the French get full focus

EUROPE is one big mess not yet even begun to be dealt with

[baboon]

I have all reasons to believe that France is very close to an economic collapse, which will also have severe repercussions on Spain, Portugal and Italy, as well as Germany.

The crisis France is running into might be unrecoverable under its current economic system, i.e. I believe it is very likely that France's borrow rates will hike up and put France into unrecoverable credit crunch.

The key indicator for this is industrial production.

I want to profit from these events if they happen.

Of course I will not hold EUR and linked currencies (I expect the Swiss to kill their healthy currency to maintain acceptable rates for their exporting industries).

But beyond this, what can I do to make money if I'm right?

You want to profit from the poverty and misery of those not as smart as yourself? You sound like a lovely chap. Enjoy your winnings.

Thank you, I'm also reliable and honest.

I have never screwed anyone doing business with me and I'm upfront about everything, and I help others where I can.

Regarding people's poverty or misery: they brought it upon themselves without my help, and my actions don't make it worse.

On financial markets there is always someone losing out on something.

In bull markets it's immoral to profit from the work of the laborers, and in bear markets it's immoral to profit from the depression and from laborers losing their jobs.

Self righteous persons are always first pointing their moral fingers towards people that were smart enough to anticipate the results of stupid policies implemented by daft politicians they elected.

Who did you vote for?

Fair comeback. I confess I have not voted for years - Always too busy or abroad, but I would hold my nose and vote Labour.

[yoshiwara]

I have all reasons to believe that France is very close to an economic collapse, which will also have severe repercussions on Spain, Portugal and Italy, as well as Germany.

The crisis France is running into might be unrecoverable under its current economic system, i.e. I believe it is very likely that France's borrow rates will hike up and put France into unrecoverable credit crunch.

The key indicator for this is industrial production.

I want to profit from these events if they happen.

Of course I will not hold EUR and linked currencies (I expect the Swiss to kill their healthy currency to maintain acceptable rates for their exporting industries).

But beyond this, what can I do to make money if I'm right?

You want to profit from the poverty and misery of those not as smart as yourself? You sound like a lovely chap. Enjoy your winnings.

Thank you, I'm also reliable and honest.

I have never screwed anyone doing business with me and I'm upfront about everything, and I help others where I can.

Regarding people's poverty or misery: they brought it upon themselves without my help, and my actions don't make it worse.

On financial markets there is always someone losing out on something.

In bull markets it's immoral to profit from the work of the laborers, and in bear markets it's immoral to profit from the depression and from laborers losing their jobs.

Self righteous persons are always first pointing their moral fingers towards people that were smart enough to anticipate the results of stupid policies implemented by daft politicians they elected.

Who did you vote for?

Fair comeback. I confess I have not voted for years - Always too busy or abroad, but I would hold my nose and vote Labour.

So Labour has got the baboon vote in the bag then?

[Naam]

http://bbc.co.uk/news/business-22089634

Not to forget Spain plus the other meds just keep on getting worse. Maybe bail in for them before the French get full focus

EUROPE is one big mess not yet even begun to be dealt with

that must be the reason of the rather strong EUR vs. USD and GBP

[baboon]

I have all reasons to believe that France is very close to an economic collapse, which will also have severe repercussions on Spain, Portugal and Italy, as well as Germany.The crisis France is running into might be unrecoverable under its current economic system, i.e. I believe it is very likely that France's borrow rates will hike up and put France into unrecoverable credit crunch.The key indicator for this is industrial production. I want to profit from these events if they happen.Of course I will not hold EUR and linked currencies (I expect the Swiss to kill their healthy currency to maintain acceptable rates for their exporting industries).But beyond this, what can I do to make money if I'm right?

You want to profit from the poverty and misery of those not as smart as yourself? You sound like a lovely chap. Enjoy your winnings.

Thank you, I'm also reliable and honest.I have never screwed anyone doing business with me and I'm upfront about everything, and I help others where I can. Regarding people's poverty or misery: they brought it upon themselves without my help, and my actions don't make it worse. On financial markets there is always someone losing out on something.In bull markets it's immoral to profit from the work of the laborers, and in bear markets it's immoral to profit from the depression and from laborers losing their jobs. Self righteous persons are always first pointing their moral fingers towards people that were smart enough to anticipate the results of stupid policies implemented by daft politicians they elected.Who did you vote for?

Fair comeback. I confess I have not voted for years - Always too busy or abroad, but I would hold my nose and vote Labour.

So Labour has got the baboon vote in the bag then?

In the absence of anything decent, alas yes.

[mccw]

http://bbc.co.uk/news/business-22089634

Not to forget Spain plus the other meds just keep on getting worse. Maybe bail in for them before the French get full focus

EUROPE is one big mess not yet even begun to be dealt with

that must be the reason of the rather strong EUR vs. USD and GBP

That would be more to do with the austerity over printing policy I think

[cheeryble]

9th April 2013:

..........how often has the seemingly darkest hour been the moment the stockmarket is a step ahead and starts taking off? And it certainly is a dark hour the Bourse is one of the few not to recover from 2009.

10 April 2013:

CAC 40 +1.99%

EURO STOXX +2.56%

Edited April 10, 2013 by cheeryble

[Naam]

http://bbc.co.uk/news/business-22089634

Not to forget Spain plus the other meds just keep on getting worse. Maybe bail in for them before the French get full focus

EUROPE is one big mess not yet even begun to be dealt with

that must be the reason of the rather strong EUR vs. USD and GBP

That would be more to do with the austerity over printing policy I think

mccw,

to get a clearer picture you have to stop reading the "anglo" press.

[mccw]

http://bbc.co.uk/news/business-22089634

Not to forget Spain plus the other meds just keep on getting worse. Maybe bail in for them before the French get full focus

EUROPE is one big mess not yet even begun to be dealt with

that must be the reason of the rather strong EUR vs. USD and GBP

That would be more to do with the austerity over printing policy I think

mccw,

to get a clearer picture you have to stop reading the "anglo" press.

For sure they are still printing / bond buying. But the perceptions do matter.

Why do you think such a high value on the euro if its not other currencies active devaluation/ printing?

[mccw]

As I said before; the Cyprus debarcle , although horrible on many levels, could be seen as positive for the currency super long term as it shows the powers that be are serious in tackling the insolvency problems rather than US or Yen style print unlimited to carry on the same n hope for the best.

[yoshiwara]

As I said before; the Cyprus debarcle , although horrible on many levels, could be seen as positive for the currency super long term as it shows the powers that be are serious in tackling the insolvency problems rather than US or Yen style print unlimited to carry on the same n hope for the best.

More serious in tackling countries taking the piss maybe. Cyprus had used its growing position as a financial centre (for offshore Russian money) to put a singular bet on Greek sovereign debt. Out of order.

[Naam]

mccw,

to get a clearer picture you have to stop reading the "anglo" press.

For sure they are still printing / bond buying. But the perceptions do matter.

Why do you think such a high value on the euro if its not other currencies active devaluation/ printing?

ze high valyew of ze Y€wro is klearly based on Tcherman supremacy in Y€wrope. eat your heart out Nigel Farage!

[midas]

I have to confess that I was not aware before reading this that derivatives have “super-priority” status
in any bankruptcy.

" Cyprus-style confiscation of depositor funds has been called the “new normal.” Bail-in policies are appearing in multiple countries directing failing TBTF banks to convert the funds of “unsecured creditors” into capital; and those creditors, it turns out, include ordinary depositors.

Shock waves went around the world when the IMF, the EU, and the ECB not only approved but mandated the confiscation of depositor funds to “bail in” two bankrupt banks in Cyprus. A “bail in” is a quantum leap beyond a “bail out.” When governments are no longer willing to use taxpayer money to bail out banks that have gambled away theircapital, the banks are now being instructed to “recapitalize” themselves by confiscating the funds of their creditors, turning debt into equity, or stock; and the “creditors” include the depositors who put their money in the bank thinking it was a secure place to store their savings."

In the US after the Glass-Steagall Act was implemented in 1933, a bank could not gamble with depositor funds for its own account; but in 1999, that barrier was removed. Recent congressional investigations have revealed that in the biggest derivative banks, JPMorgan and Bank of America, massive commingling has occurred between their depository arms and their unregulated and highly vulnerable derivatives arms. Under both the Dodd Frank Act and the 2005 Bankruptcy Act, derivative claims have super-priority over all other claims, secured and unsecured, insured and uninsured. In a major derivatives fiasco, derivative claimants could well grab all the collateral, leaving other claimants, public and private, holding the bag.

The derivatives market is estimated at $600 trillion , which is 10 times the size of U.S. GDP and just four banks hold a staggering 95.9% of U.S. derivatives

Edited April 11, 2013 by midas

[yoshiwara]

I have to confess that I was not aware before reading this that derivatives have “super-priority” status

in any bankruptcy.

" Cyprus-style confiscation of depositor funds has been called the “new normal.” Bail-in policies are appearing in multiple countries directing failing TBTF banks to convert the funds of “unsecured creditors” into capital; and those creditors, it turns out, include ordinary depositors.

Shock waves went around the world when the IMF, the EU, and the ECB not only approved but mandated the confiscation of depositor funds to “bail in” two bankrupt banks in Cyprus. A “bail in” is a quantum leap beyond a “bail out.” When governments are no longer willing to use taxpayer money to bail out banks that have gambled away theircapital, the banks are now being instructed to “recapitalize” themselves by confiscating the funds of their creditors, turning debt into equity, or stock; and the “creditors” include the depositors who put their money in the bank thinking it was a secure place to store their savings."

In the US after the Glass-Steagall Act was implemented in 1933, a bank could not gamble with depositor funds for its own account; but in 1999, that barrier was removed. Recent congressional investigations have revealed that in the biggest derivative banks, JPMorgan and Bank of America, massive commingling has occurred between their depository arms and their unregulated and highly vulnerable derivatives arms. Under both the Dodd Frank Act and the 2005 Bankruptcy Act, derivative claims have super-priority over all other claims, secured and unsecured, insured and uninsured. In a major derivatives fiasco, derivative claimants could well grab all the collateral, leaving other claimants, public and private, holding the bag.

The derivatives market is estimated at $600 trillion , which is 10 times the size of U.S. GDP and just four banks hold a staggering 95.9% of U.S. derivatives

Pity that you haven't got the faintest clue how a derivative works.

[midas]

I have to confess that I was not aware before reading this that derivatives have “super-priority” status

in any bankruptcy.

" Cyprus-style confiscation of depositor funds has been called the “new normal.” Bail-in policies are appearing in multiple countries directing failing TBTF banks to convert the funds of “unsecured creditors” into capital; and those creditors, it turns out, include ordinary depositors.

Shock waves went around the world when the IMF, the EU, and the ECB not only approved but mandated the confiscation of depositor funds to “bail in” two bankrupt banks in Cyprus. A “bail in” is a quantum leap beyond a “bail out.” When governments are no longer willing to use taxpayer money to bail out banks that have gambled away theircapital, the banks are now being instructed to “recapitalize” themselves by confiscating the funds of their creditors, turning debt into equity, or stock; and the “creditors” include the depositors who put their money in the bank thinking it was a secure place to store their savings."

In the US after the Glass-Steagall Act was implemented in 1933, a bank could not gamble with depositor funds for its own account; but in 1999, that barrier was removed. Recent congressional investigations have revealed that in the biggest derivative banks, JPMorgan and Bank of America, massive commingling has occurred between their depository arms and their unregulated and highly vulnerable derivatives arms. Under both the Dodd Frank Act and the 2005 Bankruptcy Act, derivative claims have super-priority over all other claims, secured and unsecured, insured and uninsured. In a major derivatives fiasco, derivative claimants could well grab all the collateral, leaving other claimants, public and private, holding th

e bag.

The derivatives market is estimated at $600 trillion , which is 10 times the size of U.S. GDP and just four banks hold a staggering 95.9% of U.S. derivatives

Pity that you haven't got the faintest clue how a derivative works.

Actually, when I lived in Australia before moving to Thailand I used to deal in them . Next!