Financial Crisis

[MJP]

I am reminded of all those post-war pre-fabs (some of which are still there) around London suburbs and elsewhere.

Oh, it's not that nice.

It's delivered by hi-ab lorry and sometimes I even get to plumb the thing to a sewage tank or better yet . . . mains drainage! Sometimes. Couple this with 14 hours a day running horrifically stressful regeneration and hazardous waste remediation projects . . . .

Over twenty years living like that in Blighty.

Is it any wonder I now live the jungle?

Instead of that stupid HS2 railway that means you can go from London to Birmingham 20 minutes faster (when by such time most business will be done using fibre-optic mega speed broadband), why not have a national programme of house building?

I agree on the house building over HS2; quite tricky politically where to put them all. Better trains to kent and regeneration down there building higher density well connected urban centers would be the way if I was in charge. Land etc would be cheapest of the Home Counties too and links to euro land and close to London etc.

As your in construction you probably know about all the environmental standards legislation / regulations, much handed down from Brussels, which makes new builds still very expensive. So people would still need loans and low interest rates to be able to afford them even with government support. Unless the government made most under a new government owned property developing company, which charged sensible rents, however still turning a decent profit which then helped build future developments. National capitalism as some else put it. Many ways it could think such gov run biz could of good for the nation, make money itself and then reduce the tax burden and there got boost people's money in pocket to spend and further stimulate the economy, win win win. Power, telecoms, trains, etc etc, problem is unions and idiotic voters would make it run by politics rather than sound business sense most likely which is why the Tories felt the need and still feel inclined to keep everything in private / stronger hands.

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I'm a PM for large scale regen and remediation.

The legislation is now so deep and so paranoid are the firms that development is becoming unworkable these days for so many reasons, from planning application onwards. So yes, this is a factor. But Brown destroying confidence in private pensions at the same time interest-only mortgages on historically low rates were made available for BTL, this has created this unsustainable bubble.

The house builders with their land banks have become like DeBeers with their diamonds. They have stockpiles of them, but are only releasing them a tiny amount at a time to maintain profits. Hence the lowest levels of house building for generations.

Houses need to be homes again, need to be communities, for a healthy society. Not investment vehicles. The market is presently failing the younger generations.

Edited January 20, 2014 by MJP

[mccw]

On the affordability factors of London homes- looking at national average earnings and pointing at London going up so much is a really dumb measure because on the most obvious level a national and local are not relating the same things, it should be a local wage average to local prices in the specific area under scrutiny to see if proportionally they are a similar and then compare if proportionally the a national av earning and national av prices are similar. But then if you are talking about prime London this equation / data wouldn't be properly collate-able or relevant because so many of the properties are owned by off shore persons / entities.

I read in the last Savills report that 60% of all purchases in the UK are cash, no loans, and London could well be a higher percentage than that I suspect. So the chat about property prices being nothing but a debt feuled bubble doesn't really sit too well with that. Further, unlike the US, Spain, Ireland, etc, who experienced a building boom and housing surplus, UK in fact has a chronic housing shortage and massive population growth of immigrants every year compounding the situation. Due to this demographic rents remain high and therefore most properties, other than the very high end, still offer reasonable rental investment returns and so will ensure a bottom even if first time buyer numbers are dwindling.

The conditions are as they are and given the prevailing policy out look is for continuing support indefinitely from all the political parties the question is what is one to do about it? Play the game mindfully and win or moan and groan about the injustice of it all.

I bought in the immediate aftermath of the crash because I saw it as a great opportunity. The system must produce more debt and inflation to survive, so buying the dips makes sense; the last was my first, undoubtably there will be future dips as well, but short of a total system collapse I don't think the UK will see any property crash like the others.

I may be wrong of course and everyone should make up their own minds; but 2 things are sure 1) moaning and groaning bitterness won't get you anywhere and 2) lazy repeating of media comparisons x + y means Z is doing a disservice to yourself because it means you are not thinking properly/ critically on the topic, not taking all relevant information under consideration, nor forming a well reasons thought stream of your own.

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

[MJP]

It was a debt binge that resulted in a bubble. It changed market dynamics in such a way as to limit future supply as I mentioned before. Overstated unverified incomes on 120% interest only mortgages, many for BTL? It got so desperate during the credit fuelled boom people lost all sense and reason. I had numerous colleagues who did this. The 20% over the 100% was used to pay off Masters degree debts by one.

Interest rates have yet to really rise and with the highest capital debts at historically the lowest interest rates this can only be bad, very bad, hence all the QE and the bailing out.

The UK really needs to sort this out if it's to remain a decent country. Otherwise you end up with the polarisation of wealth we see in countries like this one. If a majority are cash buyers in a low volume market this suggests this is already happening. I'm no fan of the welfare state and mass regulation by the way. However, between the FSA and the house builders, the banks, the government, Brussels et.al., they're all doing Britain and her younger generations a great disservice.

It is clearly not working for the young man on the Clapham omnibus.

I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree. I'm not budging on this one.

Edited January 20, 2014 by MJP

[midas]

On the affordability factors of London homes- looking at national average earnings and pointing at London going up so much is a really dumb measure because on the most obvious level a national and local are not relating the same things, it should be a local wage average to local prices in the specific area under scrutiny to see if proportionally they are a similar and then compare if proportionally the a national av earning and national av prices are similar. But then if you are talking about prime London this equation / data wouldn't be properly collate-able or relevant because so many of the properties are owned by off shore persons / entities. I read in the last Savills report that 60% of all purchases in the UK are cash, no loans, and London could well be a higher percentage than that I suspect. So the chat about property prices being nothing but a debt feuled bubble doesn't really sit too well with that. Further, unlike the US, Spain, Ireland, etc, who experienced a building boom and housing surplus, UK in fact has a chronic housing shortage and massive population growth of immigrants every year compounding the situation. Due to this demographic rents remain high and therefore most properties, other than the very high end, still offer reasonable rental investment returns and so will ensure a bottom even if first time buyer numbers are dwindling. The conditions are as they are and given the prevailing policy out look is for continuing support indefinitely from all the political parties the question is what is one to do about it? Play the game mindfully and win or moan and groan about the injustice of it all. I bought in the immediate aftermath of the crash because I saw it as a great opportunity. The system must produce more debt and inflation to survive, so buying the dips makes sense; the last was my first, undoubtably there will be future dips as well, but short of a total system collapse I don't think the UK will see any property crash like the others. I may be wrong of course and everyone should make up their own minds; but 2 things are sure 1) moaning and groaning bitterness won't get you anywhere and 2) lazy repeating of media comparisons x + y means Z is doing a disservice to yourself because it means you are not thinking properly/ critically on the topic, not taking all relevant information under consideration, nor forming a well reasons thought stream of your own. Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

mccw 30 years ago I liked property as you seem to do now.

But today I don't understand the optimism about owning property anywhere in the UK (unless perhaps you're talking about a fully secure privately guarded enclave ............. that you know will always be guarded) when the price you are paying for the property today assumes that the conditions in which the property exists will remain essentially the same 30 to 40 years from now, as they are today? That is how property values are essentially arrived at isn't it? i.e the capitalisation of a notional stream of income into the future ? And in fact unless i am wrong I believe it's actually based in perpetuity, which is more like 50 or 60 years?

But as hard as I try I just can't see the conditions in the UK in the future being anywhere like they are today and surely that is bound to affect property values?

Unless and until somebody can start addressing even at the very, very least a way to stop the haemorrhaging of debt accumulation and meaningful reversal in joblessness and probably more importantly, payment of meaningful incomes, how can a property realistically be worth what you pay for it today when the easy credit dries up?

And it's not just about the consequential difficulties that will be imposed on potential buyers but also of equal importance the potential difficulties imposed on central and local governments to be able to continue to provide essential services to enable you to use your property effectively and feel safe and secure in your property ?.

In other words, extrapolating say 30 or 40 years time from today what happens to property values generally if the same trends occur in the UK as has happened in places in the USA , such as Detroit and some of the other failed cities when there is no more money left to pay just for basic maintenance of law and order?

I would bet a considerable sum of money that these are the conditions that will prevail Unfortunately

[MJP]

On the affordability factors of London homes- looking at national average earnings and pointing at London going up so much is a really dumb measure because on the most obvious level a national and local are not relating the same things, it should be a local wage average to local prices in the specific area under scrutiny to see if proportionally they are a similar and then compare if proportionally the a national av earning and national av prices are similar. But then if you are talking about prime London this equation / data wouldn't be properly collate-able or relevant because so many of the properties are owned by off shore persons / entities. I read in the last Savills report that 60% of all purchases in the UK are cash, no loans, and London could well be a higher percentage than that I suspect. So the chat about property prices being nothing but a debt feuled bubble doesn't really sit too well with that. Further, unlike the US, Spain, Ireland, etc, who experienced a building boom and housing surplus, UK in fact has a chronic housing shortage and massive population growth of immigrants every year compounding the situation. Due to this demographic rents remain high and therefore most properties, other than the very high end, still offer reasonable rental investment returns and so will ensure a bottom even if first time buyer numbers are dwindling. The conditions are as they are and given the prevailing policy out look is for continuing support indefinitely from all the political parties the question is what is one to do about it? Play the game mindfully and win or moan and groan about the injustice of it all. I bought in the immediate aftermath of the crash because I saw it as a great opportunity. The system must produce more debt and inflation to survive, so buying the dips makes sense; the last was my first, undoubtably there will be future dips as well, but short of a total system collapse I don't think the UK will see any property crash like the others. I may be wrong of course and everyone should make up their own minds; but 2 things are sure 1) moaning and groaning bitterness won't get you anywhere and 2) lazy repeating of media comparisons x + y means Z is doing a disservice to yourself because it means you are not thinking properly/ critically on the topic, not taking all relevant information under consideration, nor forming a well reasons thought stream of your own. Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

mccw 30 years ago I liked property as you seem to do now.

But today I don't understand the optimism about owning property anywhere in the UK (unless perhaps you're talking about a fully secure privately guarded enclave ............. that you know will always be guarded) when the price you are paying for the property today assumes that the conditions in which the property exists will remain essentially the same 30 to 40 years from now, as they are today? That is how property values are essentially arrived at isn't it? i.e the capitalisation of a notional stream of income into the future ? And in fact unless i am wrong I believe it's actually based in perpetuity, which is more like 50 or 60 years?

But as hard as I try I just can't see the conditions in the UK in the future being anywhere like they are today and surely that is bound to affect property values?

Unless and until somebody can start addressing even at the very, very least a way to stop the haemorrhaging of debt accumulation and meaningful reversal in joblessness and probably more importantly, payment of meaningful incomes, how can a property realistically be worth what you pay for it today when the easy credit dries up?

And it's not just about the consequential difficulties that will be imposed on potential buyers but also of equal importance the potential difficulties imposed on central and local governments to be able to continue to provide essential services to enable you to use your property effectively and feel safe and secure in your property ?.

In other words, extrapolating say 30 or 40 years time from today what happens to property values generally if the same trends occur in the UK as has happened in places in the USA , such as Detroit and some of the other failed cities when there is no more money left to pay just for basic maintenance of law and order?

I would bet a considerable sum of money that these are the conditions that will prevail Unfortunately

Also ask what's the average age of the first time buyer now and how do we get wage inflation to deal with this debt mountain in a now globalised world?

It's all gone wonky.

[midas]

Tough times trigger shoplifting epidemic as organised gangs steal valuable goods to order

Britain’s retailers are experiencing an epidemic of shoplifting, fuelled by the economic downturn and organised crime gangs stealing valuable merchandise to order by travelling large distances to major shopping centres.

The British Retail Consortium’s annual crime survey also exposes a lack of confidence in police to tackle theft from shops with more than 90 per cent of all shoplifting offences going unreported by store and prosecution rates of fraudsters considered “woeful”

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/tough-times-trigger-shoplifting-epidemic-as-organised-gangs-steal-valuable-goods-to-order-9070709.html

Edited January 20, 2014 by midas

[midas]

On the affordability factors of London homes- looking at national average earnings and pointing at London going up so much is a really dumb measure because on the most obvious level a national and local are not relating the same things, it should be a local wage average to local prices in the specific area under scrutiny to see if proportionally they are a similar and then compare if proportionally the a national av earning and national av prices are similar. But then if you are talking about prime London this equation / data wouldn't be properly collate-able or relevant because so many of the properties are owned by off shore persons / entities. I read in the last Savills report that 60% of all purchases in the UK are cash, no loans, and London could well be a higher percentage than that I suspect. So the chat about property prices being nothing but a debt feuled bubble doesn't really sit too well with that. Further, unlike the US, Spain, Ireland, etc, who experienced a building boom and housing surplus, UK in fact has a chronic housing shortage and massive population growth of immigrants every year compounding the situation. Due to this demographic rents remain high and therefore most properties, other than the very high end, still offer reasonable rental investment returns and so will ensure a bottom even if first time buyer numbers are dwindling. The conditions are as they are and given the prevailing policy out look is for continuing support indefinitely from all the political parties the question is what is one to do about it? Play the game mindfully and win or moan and groan about the injustice of it all. I bought in the immediate aftermath of the crash because I saw it as a great opportunity. The system must produce more debt and inflation to survive, so buying the dips makes sense; the last was my first, undoubtably there will be future dips as well, but short of a total system collapse I don't think the UK will see any property crash like the others. I may be wrong of course and everyone should make up their own minds; but 2 things are sure 1) moaning and groaning bitterness won't get you anywhere and 2) lazy repeating of media comparisons x + y means Z is doing a disservice to yourself because it means you are not thinking properly/ critically on the topic, not taking all relevant information under consideration, nor forming a well reasons thought stream of your own. Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

mccw 30 years ago I liked property as you seem to do now.

But today I don't understand the optimism about owning property anywhere in the UK (unless perhaps you're talking about a fully secure privately guarded enclave ............. that you know will always be guarded) when the price you are paying for the property today assumes that the conditions in which the property exists will remain essentially the same 30 to 40 years from now, as they are today? That is how property values are essentially arrived at isn't it? i.e the capitalisation of a notional stream of income into the future ? And in fact unless i am wrong I believe it's actually based in perpetuity, which is more like 50 or 60 years?

But as hard as I try I just can't see the conditions in the UK in the future being anywhere like they are today and surely that is bound to affect property values?

Unless and until somebody can start addressing even at the very, very least a way to stop the haemorrhaging of debt accumulation and meaningful reversal in joblessness and probably more importantly, payment of meaningful incomes, how can a property realistically be worth what you pay for it today when the easy credit dries up?

And it's not just about the consequential difficulties that will be imposed on potential buyers but also of equal importance the potential difficulties imposed on central and local governments to be able to continue to provide essential services to enable you to use your property effectively and feel safe and secure in your property ?.

In other words, extrapolating say 30 or 40 years time from today what happens to property values generally if the same trends occur in the UK as has happened in places in the USA , such as Detroit and some of the other failed cities when there is no more money left to pay just for basic maintenance of law and order?

I would bet a considerable sum of money that these are the conditions that will prevail Unfortunately

Also ask what's the average age of the first time buyer now and how do we get wage inflation to deal with this debt mountain in a now globalised world?

It's all gone wonky.

even ignoring the very rapid trend in robotic manufacturing you'd have to be delusional to think that future workers will have anywhere near the level of real income and benefits that people in the UK have had in the past. And if human labour is needed from what I read the Poles, Romanians and Bulgarians are happy to do it at a fraction of the cost.

[mccw]

On the affordability factors of London homes- looking at national average earnings and pointing at London going up so much is a really dumb measure because on the most obvious level a national and local are not relating the same things, it should be a local wage average to local prices in the specific area under scrutiny to see if proportionally they are a similar and then compare if proportionally the a national av earning and national av prices are similar. But then if you are talking about prime London this equation / data wouldn't be properly collate-able or relevant because so many of the properties are owned by off shore persons / entities. I read in the last Savills report that 60% of all purchases in the UK are cash, no loans, and London could well be a higher percentage than that I suspect. So the chat about property prices being nothing but a debt feuled bubble doesn't really sit too well with that. Further, unlike the US, Spain, Ireland, etc, who experienced a building boom and housing surplus, UK in fact has a chronic housing shortage and massive population growth of immigrants every year compounding the situation. Due to this demographic rents remain high and therefore most properties, other than the very high end, still offer reasonable rental investment returns and so will ensure a bottom even if first time buyer numbers are dwindling. The conditions are as they are and given the prevailing policy out look is for continuing support indefinitely from all the political parties the question is what is one to do about it? Play the game mindfully and win or moan and groan about the injustice of it all. I bought in the immediate aftermath of the crash because I saw it as a great opportunity. The system must produce more debt and inflation to survive, so buying the dips makes sense; the last was my first, undoubtably there will be future dips as well, but short of a total system collapse I don't think the UK will see any property crash like the others. I may be wrong of course and everyone should make up their own minds; but 2 things are sure 1) moaning and groaning bitterness won't get you anywhere and 2) lazy repeating of media comparisons x + y means Z is doing a disservice to yourself because it means you are not thinking properly/ critically on the topic, not taking all relevant information under consideration, nor forming a well reasons thought stream of your own. Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

mccw 30 years ago I liked property as you seem to do now.

But today I don't understand the optimism about owning property anywhere in the UK (unless perhaps you're talking about a fully secure privately guarded enclave ............. that you know will always be guarded) when the price you are paying for the property today assumes that the conditions in which the property exists will remain essentially the same 30 to 40 years from now, as they are today? That is how property values are essentially arrived at isn't it? i.e the capitalisation of a notional stream of income into the future ? And in fact unless i am wrong I believe it's actually based in perpetuity, which is more like 50 or 60 years?

But as hard as I try I just can't see the conditions in the UK in the future being anywhere like they are today and surely that is bound to affect property values?

Unless and until somebody can start addressing even at the very, very least a way to stop the haemorrhaging of debt accumulation and meaningful reversal in joblessness and probably more importantly, payment of meaningful incomes, how can a property realistically be worth what you pay for it today when the easy credit dries up?

And it's not just about the consequential difficulties that will be imposed on potential buyers but also of equal importance the potential difficulties imposed on central and local governments to be able to continue to provide essential services to enable you to use your property effectively and feel safe and secure in your property ?.

In other words, extrapolating say 30 or 40 years time from today what happens to property values generally if the same trends occur in the UK as has happened in places in the USA , such as Detroit and some of the other failed cities when there is no more money left to pay just for basic maintenance of law and order?

I would bet a considerable sum of money that these are the conditions that will prevail Unfortunately

Also ask what's the average age of the first time buyer now and how do we get wage inflation to deal with this debt mountain in a now globalised world?

It's all gone wonky.

I think the answer is already in action / unfolding, the only answer possible in a debt pyramid and therefore inflation reliant system, that is further creation of money/ debt a keeping interest rates low. So going forward I don't expect interest rates to rise substantially and I do expect everything to be done to keep the debt building, more easy money policies like help to buy, funding for lending, etc more QE which is debt with out interest burden basically.

Unfortunately or in some cases not unfortunately (up to the preference of viewer but not avoidable)-

polarisation of wealth- yes

Collapsing services- yes

Withdrawal of further welfare/ benefits - yes

Further Raising of retirement age- yes

I think we are at the end of an era and looking back in 50 years this financial crises will be seen as the beginning of the end of the welfare state, an island in the seas of hash history, a failed economic experiment like we view communism now.

At some point the debt bubble based system might well collapse too; but it won't be pretty or a time for rejoicing amongst the non property owning masses. It would literally be the end of civilisation as we know it. With out the debt based system of consumption what on rather would all the millions or actually billions of people in the world do with themselves? Tear each other apart more than likely.

I am preparing accordingly. But pray I never see the day.

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

[MJP]

On the affordability factors of London homes- looking at national average earnings and pointing at London going up so much is a really dumb measure because on the most obvious level a national and local are not relating the same things, it should be a local wage average to local prices in the specific area under scrutiny to see if proportionally they are a similar and then compare if proportionally the a national av earning and national av prices are similar. But then if you are talking about prime London this equation / data wouldn't be properly collate-able or relevant because so many of the properties are owned by off shore persons / entities. I read in the last Savills report that 60% of all purchases in the UK are cash, no loans, and London could well be a higher percentage than that I suspect. So the chat about property prices being nothing but a debt feuled bubble doesn't really sit too well with that. Further, unlike the US, Spain, Ireland, etc, who experienced a building boom and housing surplus, UK in fact has a chronic housing shortage and massive population growth of immigrants every year compounding the situation. Due to this demographic rents remain high and therefore most properties, other than the very high end, still offer reasonable rental investment returns and so will ensure a bottom even if first time buyer numbers are dwindling. The conditions are as they are and given the prevailing policy out look is for continuing support indefinitely from all the political parties the question is what is one to do about it? Play the game mindfully and win or moan and groan about the injustice of it all. I bought in the immediate aftermath of the crash because I saw it as a great opportunity. The system must produce more debt and inflation to survive, so buying the dips makes sense; the last was my first, undoubtably there will be future dips as well, but short of a total system collapse I don't think the UK will see any property crash like the others. I may be wrong of course and everyone should make up their own minds; but 2 things are sure 1) moaning and groaning bitterness won't get you anywhere and 2) lazy repeating of media comparisons x + y means Z is doing a disservice to yourself because it means you are not thinking properly/ critically on the topic, not taking all relevant information under consideration, nor forming a well reasons thought stream of your own. Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

mccw 30 years ago I liked property as you seem to do now.

But today I don't understand the optimism about owning property anywhere in the UK (unless perhaps you're talking about a fully secure privately guarded enclave ............. that you know will always be guarded) when the price you are paying for the property today assumes that the conditions in which the property exists will remain essentially the same 30 to 40 years from now, as they are today? That is how property values are essentially arrived at isn't it? i.e the capitalisation of a notional stream of income into the future ? And in fact unless i am wrong I believe it's actually based in perpetuity, which is more like 50 or 60 years?

But as hard as I try I just can't see the conditions in the UK in the future being anywhere like they are today and surely that is bound to affect property values?

Unless and until somebody can start addressing even at the very, very least a way to stop the haemorrhaging of debt accumulation and meaningful reversal in joblessness and probably more importantly, payment of meaningful incomes, how can a property realistically be worth what you pay for it today when the easy credit dries up?

And it's not just about the consequential difficulties that will be imposed on potential buyers but also of equal importance the potential difficulties imposed on central and local governments to be able to continue to provide essential services to enable you to use your property effectively and feel safe and secure in your property ?.

In other words, extrapolating say 30 or 40 years time from today what happens to property values generally if the same trends occur in the UK as has happened in places in the USA , such as Detroit and some of the other failed cities when there is no more money left to pay just for basic maintenance of law and order?

I would bet a considerable sum of money that these are the conditions that will prevail Unfortunately

Also ask what's the average age of the first time buyer now and how do we get wage inflation to deal with this debt mountain in a now globalised world?

It's all gone wonky.

even ignoring the very rapid trend in robotic manufacturing you'd have to be delusional to think that future workers will have anywhere near the level of real income and benefits that people in the UK have had in the past. And if human labour is needed from what I read the Poles, Romanians and Bulgarians are happy to do it at a fraction of the cost.

A good mate lives in a house down the street from his sister who lives in a similar house. She bought hers for £50k. He paid £200k. This is Kent by the way. He will likely lose it soon. I remember others who bought around 1996 and have mortgage payments of £20 a month now. They'll keep hold of their homes.

An old friend who was MD of one of the UK's biggest civils companies explained to me once how the massive wage inflation in the 70's and 80's paid off peoples mortgages.

Then before that there was the council house building.

Before that the pre-fabs.

Post-war, the basic human need for shelter in the UK has never simply been left to market forces. Especially the predatory forces we see today.

[mmh8]

I like the Bill Bailey idea, turn the island into a heritage centre through world whatever it is council , get handouts given to the country to maintain itin its current state as a world treasure, divide handouts from rich countries up into equal amounts for all natives expat or still current.

introduce wolves and bears back into the country,

[MJP]

On the affordability factors of London homes- looking at national average earnings and pointing at London going up so much is a really dumb measure because on the most obvious level a national and local are not relating the same things, it should be a local wage average to local prices in the specific area under scrutiny to see if proportionally they are a similar and then compare if proportionally the a national av earning and national av prices are similar. But then if you are talking about prime London this equation / data wouldn't be properly collate-able or relevant because so many of the properties are owned by off shore persons / entities. I read in the last Savills report that 60% of all purchases in the UK are cash, no loans, and London could well be a higher percentage than that I suspect. So the chat about property prices being nothing but a debt feuled bubble doesn't really sit too well with that. Further, unlike the US, Spain, Ireland, etc, who experienced a building boom and housing surplus, UK in fact has a chronic housing shortage and massive population growth of immigrants every year compounding the situation. Due to this demographic rents remain high and therefore most properties, other than the very high end, still offer reasonable rental investment returns and so will ensure a bottom even if first time buyer numbers are dwindling. The conditions are as they are and given the prevailing policy out look is for continuing support indefinitely from all the political parties the question is what is one to do about it? Play the game mindfully and win or moan and groan about the injustice of it all. I bought in the immediate aftermath of the crash because I saw it as a great opportunity. The system must produce more debt and inflation to survive, so buying the dips makes sense; the last was my first, undoubtably there will be future dips as well, but short of a total system collapse I don't think the UK will see any property crash like the others. I may be wrong of course and everyone should make up their own minds; but 2 things are sure 1) moaning and groaning bitterness won't get you anywhere and 2) lazy repeating of media comparisons x + y means Z is doing a disservice to yourself because it means you are not thinking properly/ critically on the topic, not taking all relevant information under consideration, nor forming a well reasons thought stream of your own. Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

mccw 30 years ago I liked property as you seem to do now.

But today I don't understand the optimism about owning property anywhere in the UK (unless perhaps you're talking about a fully secure privately guarded enclave ............. that you know will always be guarded) when the price you are paying for the property today assumes that the conditions in which the property exists will remain essentially the same 30 to 40 years from now, as they are today? That is how property values are essentially arrived at isn't it? i.e the capitalisation of a notional stream of income into the future ? And in fact unless i am wrong I believe it's actually based in perpetuity, which is more like 50 or 60 years?

But as hard as I try I just can't see the conditions in the UK in the future being anywhere like they are today and surely that is bound to affect property values?

Unless and until somebody can start addressing even at the very, very least a way to stop the haemorrhaging of debt accumulation and meaningful reversal in joblessness and probably more importantly, payment of meaningful incomes, how can a property realistically be worth what you pay for it today when the easy credit dries up?

And it's not just about the consequential difficulties that will be imposed on potential buyers but also of equal importance the potential difficulties imposed on central and local governments to be able to continue to provide essential services to enable you to use your property effectively and feel safe and secure in your property ?.

In other words, extrapolating say 30 or 40 years time from today what happens to property values generally if the same trends occur in the UK as has happened in places in the USA , such as Detroit and some of the other failed cities when there is no more money left to pay just for basic maintenance of law and order?

I would bet a considerable sum of money that these are the conditions that will prevail Unfortunately

Also ask what's the average age of the first time buyer now and how do we get wage inflation to deal with this debt mountain in a now globalised world?

It's all gone wonky.

I think the answer is already in action / unfolding, the only answer possible in a debt pyramid and therefore inflation reliant system, that is further creation of money/ debt a keeping interest rates low. So going forward I don't expect interest rates to rise substantially and I do expect everything to be done to keep the debt building, more easy money policies like help to buy, funding for lending, etc more QE which is debt with out interest burden basically.

Unfortunately or in some cases not unfortunately (up to the preference of viewer but not avoidable)-

polarisation of wealth- yes

Collapsing services- yes

Withdrawal of further welfare/ benefits - yes

Further Raising of retirement age- yes

I think we are at the end of an era and looking back in 50 years this financial crises will be seen as the beginning of the end of the welfare state, an island in the seas of hash history, a failed economic experiment like we view communism now.

At some point the debt bubble based system might well collapse too; but it won't be pretty or a time for rejoicing amongst the non property owning masses. It would literally be the end of civilisation as we know it. With out the debt based system of consumption what on rather would all the millions or actually billions of people in the world do with themselves? Tear each other apart more than likely.

I am preparing accordingly. But pray I never see the day.

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

As much as I agree, I really want us to avoid this sort of . . . armageddon.

Let's just build some houses? Good idea.

[midas]

On the affordability factors of London homes- looking at national average earnings and pointing at London going up so much is a really dumb measure because on the most obvious level a national and local are not relating the same things, it should be a local wage average to local prices in the specific area under scrutiny to see if proportionally they are a similar and then compare if proportionally the a national av earning and national av prices are similar. But then if you are talking about prime London this equation / data wouldn't be properly collate-able or relevant because so many of the properties are owned by off shore persons / entities. I read in the last Savills report that 60% of all purchases in the UK are cash, no loans, and London could well be a higher percentage than that I suspect. So the chat about property prices being nothing but a debt feuled bubble doesn't really sit too well with that. Further, unlike the US, Spain, Ireland, etc, who experienced a building boom and housing surplus, UK in fact has a chronic housing shortage and massive population growth of immigrants every year compounding the situation. Due to this demographic rents remain high and therefore most properties, other than the very high end, still offer reasonable rental investment returns and so will ensure a bottom even if first time buyer numbers are dwindling. The conditions are as they are and given the prevailing policy out look is for continuing support indefinitely from all the political parties the question is what is one to do about it? Play the game mindfully and win or moan and groan about the injustice of it all. I bought in the immediate aftermath of the crash because I saw it as a great opportunity. The system must produce more debt and inflation to survive, so buying the dips makes sense; the last was my first, undoubtably there will be future dips as well, but short of a total system collapse I don't think the UK will see any property crash like the others. I may be wrong of course and everyone should make up their own minds; but 2 things are sure 1) moaning and groaning bitterness won't get you anywhere and 2) lazy repeating of media comparisons x + y means Z is doing a disservice to yourself because it means you are not thinking properly/ critically on the topic, not taking all relevant information under consideration, nor forming a well reasons thought stream of your own. Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

mccw 30 years ago I liked property as you seem to do now.

But today I don't understand the optimism about owning property anywhere in the UK (unless perhaps you're talking about a fully secure privately guarded enclave ............. that you know will always be guarded) when the price you are paying for the property today assumes that the conditions in which the property exists will remain essentially the same 30 to 40 years from now, as they are today? That is how property values are essentially arrived at isn't it? i.e the capitalisation of a notional stream of income into the future ? And in fact unless i am wrong I believe it's actually based in perpetuity, which is more like 50 or 60 years?

But as hard as I try I just can't see the conditions in the UK in the future being anywhere like they are today and surely that is bound to affect property values?

Unless and until somebody can start addressing even at the very, very least a way to stop the haemorrhaging of debt accumulation and meaningful reversal in joblessness and probably more importantly, payment of meaningful incomes, how can a property realistically be worth what you pay for it today when the easy credit dries up?

And it's not just about the consequential difficulties that will be imposed on potential buyers but also of equal importance the potential difficulties imposed on central and local governments to be able to continue to provide essential services to enable you to use your property effectively and feel safe and secure in your property ?.

In other words, extrapolating say 30 or 40 years time from today what happens to property values generally if the same trends occur in the UK as has happened in places in the USA , such as Detroit and some of the other failed cities when there is no more money left to pay just for basic maintenance of law and order?

I would bet a considerable sum of money that these are the conditions that will prevail Unfortunately

Also ask what's the average age of the first time buyer now and how do we get wage inflation to deal with this debt mountain in a now globalised world?

It's all gone wonky.

I think the answer is already in action / unfolding, the only answer possible in a debt pyramid and therefore inflation reliant system, that is further creation of money/ debt a keeping interest rates low. So going forward I don't expect interest rates to rise substantially and I do expect everything to be done to keep the debt building, more easy money policies like help to buy, funding for lending, etc more QE which is debt with out interest burden basically.

Unfortunately or in some cases not unfortunately (up to the preference of viewer but not avoidable)-

polarisation of wealth- yes

Collapsing services- yes

Withdrawal of further welfare/ benefits - yes

Further Raising of retirement age- yes

I think we are at the end of an era and looking back in 50 years this financial crises will be seen as the beginning of the end of the welfare state, an island in the seas of hash history, a failed economic experiment like we view communism now.

At some point the debt bubble based system might well collapse too; but it won't be pretty or a time for rejoicing amongst the non property owning masses. It would literally be the end of civilisation as we know it. With out the debt based system of consumption what on rather would all the millions or actually billions of people in the world do with themselves? Tear each other apart more than likely.

I am preparing accordingly. But pray I never see the day.

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

Well we know from history how debt building is going to end.

But again the thing I really don't understand is that people way back even in 1782 had the intelligence and desire for self preservation to see what was really going on. Yet today we have virtually infinite information literally at our fingertips ( and the benefit of history which can be easily accessed ) and we can see -we can follow in real time the criminality of what is happening -and people do nothing. Why are people so apathetic?

We allow people we elect to serve us to get away with murder. They are meant to be working for us not for us to be their guinea pigs and slaves?

"Of all the contrivances for cheating the laboring classes of mankind, none has been more effective than that which deludes them with paper money."

Daniel Webster 1782 – 1852) Senator from Massachusetts

Edited January 20, 2014 by midas

[mccw]

""""

Jobless immigrants will be denied housing benefit under Government plans to tackle immigration and prevent the welfare system from being exploited.

Home Secretary Theresa May and Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith said the move would come into force from April.

It follows legislation rushed through Parliament to prevent migrants from claiming out-of-work benefits until they have been in Britain for three months.

Writing in the Daily Mail, the two Cabinet ministers said: "No longer can people come here from abroad and expect to get something for nothing."

Immigration had made a "tremendously rich contribution to our country, both culturally and in terms of the talent it brings - but it must be controlled", they added.

The pair wrote: "For those migrants who do come here, we're ensuring they are unable to take unfair advantage of our system by accessing benefits as soon as they arrive.

"For example, we introduced rules so that from January 1 this year we are banning individuals from receiving out-of-work benefits until they have been living in the UK for three months.

"And we will go still further: from the beginning of April we will be removing entitlement to housing benefit altogether for this group.

"In addition, EU migrants can only claim jobseeker's allowance for six months unless they have genuine prospects of finding work."

Accusing Labour of a "shameful betrayal" of British workers, they highlighted figures showing the number of Britons in jobs fell by 413,000 between 2005 and 2010, while the number of working foreigners increased by 736,000.

But they said measures taken by the coalition had "reversed the damaging trend" and of the rise in employment over the past year, over 90% went to UK nationals.

Meanwhile in her first major speech later today as shadow work and pensions secretary, Rachel Reeves will outline Labour plans to strip benefits from unemployed people who lack basic English, maths and IT skills unless they take up training.

Under the proposal, all new claimants of jobseeker's allowance would have to sit a basic skills test to measure their abilities within six weeks of signing on.

Those found to need improvement will be put on a programme of training aimed at getting them up to the standard required for steady employment.

"""

-sky news

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

[mccw]

To be honest Midas, I like your quote about paper money; but on the "serving us" part- a large part of today's problems are exactly because of voters short term and selfish thinking ie voting for more and more welfare, give aways, etc with no thoughts as to how it's all paid for. Even now it's going to be a long and difficult road to scale back to anything like sustainable budgets. The risk is a party comes along promising the world and destroys all the good work in a few short years, much like labour or Pua Thai and the like. In democracy it's easy to make promises and with out a doubt there is more corruption money flying around the UK than Thailand. Look at Tony Blair and ll his "Consultancy" work since he left office- just legalised corruption.

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

[mccw]

We can't change the system bleeding about it here. So much better to chat about where we think it's going over different time scales and how we might profit from it / do alright under the circumstances.

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

[MJP]

To be honest Midas, I like your quote about paper money; but on the "serving us" part- a large part of today's problems are exactly because of voters short term and selfish thinking ie voting for more and more welfare, give aways, etc with no thoughts as to how it's all paid for. Even now it's going to be a long and difficult road to scale back to anything like sustainable budgets. The risk is a party comes along promising the world and destroys all the good work in a few short years, much like labour or Pua Thai and the like. In democracy it's easy to make promises and with out a doubt there is more corruption money flying around the UK than Thailand. Look at Tony Blair and ll his "Consultancy" work since he left office- just legalised corruption. Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

Yup. All those old vote winning promises in a democratic system. Impossible promises made, impossible promises now being broken.

Demographics too.

Need to find another way so long as it isn't at the end of a communists gun barrel.

Going to be a tough one.

[MJP]

We can't change the system bleeding about it here. So much better to chat about where we think it's going over different time scales and how we might profit from it / do alright under the circumstances. Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

Some truth in that, but the wider adverse effects on society will likely have a bigger impact on all our futures.

[mccw]

A bit of Dutch pragmatism: (from sky news app)

"""

A group of alcoholics in Amsterdam are being paid five cans of beer a day in return for cleaning the city's streets.

The private, but government-funded Rainbow Group Foundation employs two groups of 10 men who work three days a week picking up litter.

Each day they get paid €10 (£8) and are given one hot meal, half a packet of cigarettes and five cans of beer.

Karel Slinger, 50, said he used to spend his days in a nearby park getting drunk.

"Yes, of course in the park it is nice weather and you just drink a lot of beer," he explained.

"Now you come here and you have something to do. I can't just sit still. I want to do something."

Programme director Gerri Holterman, from the Rainbow Group Foundation, said: "I think we are already successful, when we get them to drink less during the day.

"This is a start to go towards other projects and get maybe another kind of job."

There is a waiting list for those alcoholics who want to join the programme.

Fatima Elatik, district mayor of eastern Amsterdam, where the project takes place, said: "For a lot of politicians it was really difficult to accept, 'So you are giving alcohol?' No, I am giving people a sense of perspective, even a sense of belonging.

"We don't ostracise our people, because these are people that live in our districts."

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

[midas]

To be honest Midas, I like your quote about paper money; but on the "serving us" part- a large part of today's problems are exactly because of voters short term and selfish thinking ie voting for more and more welfare, give aways, etc with no thoughts as to how it's all paid for. Even now it's going to be a long and difficult road to scale back to anything like sustainable budgets. The risk is a party comes along promising the world and destroys all the good work in a few short years, much like labour or Pua Thai and the like. In democracy it's easy to make promises and with out a doubt there is more corruption money flying around the UK than Thailand. Look at Tony Blair and ll his "Consultancy" work since he left office- just legalised corruption. Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

No but what I mean is all this business of once the politicians have been elected they act (and we allow them ) as if they are then totally insulated from the reactions of the voters. Yes, everyone is going to do some form of sales job as to why he or she is better than someone else but there is no reason with today's technology why they should be able to get into office and then make huge and sometimes very unpopular decisions sometimes which are expressly against the majority of the electorate? It is bull and they should be under constant review during their term. This is what I mean about serving us.

Edited January 20, 2014 by midas

[mccw]

On the above^

In the uk people would bleat on about the poor alchies getting exploited and their "human rights", waaa booo hooo

Since this all got a bit UK centred I'll draw a wider comparison that the above attitudes and differences between western welfare and the East Asia regions culture of self reliance; which is one of the reasons why I think the latter region is better suited to sustainable growth and development over the coming decades than western countries struggling to deal with winding down impossible welfare systems.

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

[SheungWan]

A bit of Dutch pragmatism: (from sky news app) """ A group of alcoholics in Amsterdam are being paid five cans of beer a day in return for cleaning the city's streets. The private, but government-funded Rainbow Group Foundation employs two groups of 10 men who work three days a week picking up litter. Each day they get paid €10 (£8) and are given one hot meal, half a packet of cigarettes and five cans of beer. Karel Slinger, 50, said he used to spend his days in a nearby park getting drunk. "Yes, of course in the park it is nice weather and you just drink a lot of beer," he explained. "Now you come here and you have something to do. I can't just sit still. I want to do something." Programme director Gerri Holterman, from the Rainbow Group Foundation, said: "I think we are already successful, when we get them to drink less during the day. "This is a start to go towards other projects and get maybe another kind of job." There is a waiting list for those alcoholics who want to join the programme. Fatima Elatik, district mayor of eastern Amsterdam, where the project takes place, said: "For a lot of politicians it was really difficult to accept, 'So you are giving alcohol?' No, I am giving people a sense of perspective, even a sense of belonging. "We don't ostracise our people, because these are people that live in our districts." Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

Sometimes I think it would be nicer to retire to a first floor Amsterdam apartment overlooking a canal. Prinsengracht, Keisersgracht, Herrengracht. Not fussy which.

Edited January 20, 2014 by SheungWan

[MJP]

A bit of Dutch pragmatism: (from sky news app) """ A group of alcoholics in Amsterdam are being paid five cans of beer a day in return for cleaning the city's streets. The private, but government-funded Rainbow Group Foundation employs two groups of 10 men who work three days a week picking up litter. Each day they get paid €10 (£8) and are given one hot meal, half a packet of cigarettes and five cans of beer. Karel Slinger, 50, said he used to spend his days in a nearby park getting drunk. "Yes, of course in the park it is nice weather and you just drink a lot of beer," he explained. "Now you come here and you have something to do. I can't just sit still. I want to do something." Programme director Gerri Holterman, from the Rainbow Group Foundation, said: "I think we are already successful, when we get them to drink less during the day. "This is a start to go towards other projects and get maybe another kind of job." There is a waiting list for those alcoholics who want to join the programme. Fatima Elatik, district mayor of eastern Amsterdam, where the project takes place, said: "For a lot of politicians it was really difficult to accept, 'So you are giving alcohol?' No, I am giving people a sense of perspective, even a sense of belonging. "We don't ostracise our people, because these are people that live in our districts." Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

Sometimes I think it would be nicer to retire to a first floor Amsterdam apartment overlooking a canal. Prinsengracht, Keisersgracht, Herrengracht. Not fussy which.

Get in line. I've just applied for the position. Bagsey first dibs on the litter picking gig.

[mccw]

To be honest Midas, I like your quote about paper money; but on the "serving us" part- a large part of today's problems are exactly because of voters short term and selfish thinking ie voting for more and more welfare, give aways, etc with no thoughts as to how it's all paid for. Even now it's going to be a long and difficult road to scale back to anything like sustainable budgets. The risk is a party comes along promising the world and destroys all the good work in a few short years, much like labour or Pua Thai and the like. In democracy it's easy to make promises and with out a doubt there is more corruption money flying around the UK than Thailand. Look at Tony Blair and ll his "Consultancy" work since he left office- just legalised corruption. Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

No but what I mean is all this business of once the politicians have been elected they act (and we allow them ) as if they are then totally insulated from the reactions of the voters. Yes, everyone is going to do some form of sales job as to why he or she is better than someone else but there is no reason with today's technology why they should be able to get into office and then make huge and sometimes very unpopular decisions sometimes which are expressly against the majority of the electorate? It is bull and they should be under constant review during their term. This is what I mean about serving us.

How would such a review be enforced other than through another election? Can't have elections every year or nothing would ever get done. Currently the media reviews what's going on and then people vote accordingly next opportunity. If anything 10 year terms would be better than current 5. With a requirement for clear 10 year plans to be voted on rather than the wishy washy promises where the parties don't look too much different. More detail before elections or you don't get to run. Maybe appoint business heads to run state companies for the benefit of the nation and set budgets for politicians spending according to the economics rather than dreams and half baked ideas. Limit the politicians power, they and the electorate and really qualified or responsible enough to run the nations finances. Run the nation like a company with the HofL , the Head of state and Parliament as equal votes on the board of directors.

This is all nonsense and a waste of time my talking about this anyway.

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

[mccw]

A bit of Dutch pragmatism: (from sky news app) """ A group of alcoholics in Amsterdam are being paid five cans of beer a day in return for cleaning the city's streets. The private, but government-funded Rainbow Group Foundation employs two groups of 10 men who work three days a week picking up litter. Each day they get paid €10 (£8) and are given one hot meal, half a packet of cigarettes and five cans of beer. Karel Slinger, 50, said he used to spend his days in a nearby park getting drunk. "Yes, of course in the park it is nice weather and you just drink a lot of beer," he explained. "Now you come here and you have something to do. I can't just sit still. I want to do something." Programme director Gerri Holterman, from the Rainbow Group Foundation, said: "I think we are already successful, when we get them to drink less during the day. "This is a start to go towards other projects and get maybe another kind of job." There is a waiting list for those alcoholics who want to join the programme. Fatima Elatik, district mayor of eastern Amsterdam, where the project takes place, said: "For a lot of politicians it was really difficult to accept, 'So you are giving alcohol?' No, I am giving people a sense of perspective, even a sense of belonging. "We don't ostracise our people, because these are people that live in our districts." Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

Sometimes I think it would be nicer to retire to a first floor Amsterdam apartment overlooking a canal. Prinsengracht, Keisersgracht, Herrengracht. Not fussy which.

Nice in summer.

Not too keen on the northern winters personally though.

After kids fly the nest I'd like to summer in Europe and winter in Asia/ Thailand. (If Europe hasn't gone all North African - I mean societal collapse- not ethnically, although long term that might seriously effect the politics in Un-pleasent ways too- like golden dawn in Greece)

Italy , Countryside outside to north of Rome, probably tops my list currently. Much more exploring to do first though; maybe a euro break up come along and can pick up a bargain in lira or Euro S (Euro South as opposed to Euro North).

For now I'm more than happy living in Thailand full time for the next 20 years or so.

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

[midas]

To be honest Midas, I like your quote about paper money; but on the "serving us" part- a large part of today's problems are exactly because of voters short term and selfish thinking ie voting for more and more welfare, give aways, etc with no thoughts as to how it's all paid for. Even now it's going to be a long and difficult road to scale back to anything like sustainable budgets. The risk is a party comes along promising the world and destroys all the good work in a few short years, much like labour or Pua Thai and the like. In democracy it's easy to make promises and with out a doubt there is more corruption money flying around the UK than Thailand. Look at Tony Blair and ll his "Consultancy" work since he left office- just legalised corruption. Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

No but what I mean is all this business of once the politicians have been elected they act (and we allow them ) as if they are then totally insulated from the reactions of the voters. Yes, everyone is going to do some form of sales job as to why he or she is better than someone else but there is no reason with today's technology why they should be able to get into office and then make huge and sometimes very unpopular decisions sometimes which are expressly against the majority of the electorate? It is bull and they should be under constant review during their term. This is what I mean about serving us.

How would such a review be enforced other than through another election? Can't have elections every year or nothing would ever get done. Currently the media reviews what's going on and then people vote accordingly next opportunity. If anything 10 year terms would be better than current 5. With a requirement for clear 10 year plans to be voted on rather than the wishy washy promises where the parties don't look too much different. More detail before elections or you don't get to run. Maybe appoint business heads to run state companies for the benefit of the nation and set budgets for politicians spending according to the economics rather than dreams and half baked ideas. Limit the politicians power, they and the electorate and really qualified or responsible enough to run the nations finances. Run the nation like a company with the HofL , the Head of state and Parliament as equal votes on the board of directors.

This is all nonsense and a waste of time my talking about this anyway.

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

" How would such a review be enforced other than through another election? Can't have elections every year or nothing would ever get done "

No need for elections just use your mobile telephone to participate in referendums. if Switzerland can have a better system people in the rest of the world should at the very least be questioning the current system in other countries, which is riddled with lobby groups and power hungry representatives who know they can't be touched until the end of their term. This is what I meant by apathy .

Power to the people - a pervasive web will increase demands for direct democracy

http://www.economist.com/node/1534259

Edited January 20, 2014 by midas

[mccw]

To be honest Midas, I like your quote about paper money; but on the "serving us" part- a large part of today's problems are exactly because of voters short term and selfish thinking ie voting for more and more welfare, give aways, etc with no thoughts as to how it's all paid for. Even now it's going to be a long and difficult road to scale back to anything like sustainable budgets. The risk is a party comes along promising the world and destroys all the good work in a few short years, much like labour or Pua Thai and the like. In democracy it's easy to make promises and with out a doubt there is more corruption money flying around the UK than Thailand. Look at Tony Blair and ll his "Consultancy" work since he left office- just legalised corruption. Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

No but what I mean is all this business of once the politicians have been elected they act (and we allow them ) as if they are then totally insulated from the reactions of the voters. Yes, everyone is going to do some form of sales job as to why he or she is better than someone else but there is no reason with today's technology why they should be able to get into office and then make huge and sometimes very unpopular decisions sometimes which are expressly against the majority of the electorate? It is bull and they should be under constant review during their term. This is what I mean about serving us.

How would such a review be enforced other than through another election? Can't have elections every year or nothing would ever get done. Currently the media reviews what's going on and then people vote accordingly next opportunity. If anything 10 year terms would be better than current 5. With a requirement for clear 10 year plans to be voted on rather than the wishy washy promises where the parties don't look too much different. More detail before elections or you don't get to run. Maybe appoint business heads to run state companies for the benefit of the nation and set budgets for politicians spending according to the economics rather than dreams and half baked ideas. Limit the politicians power, they and the electorate and really qualified or responsible enough to run the nations finances. Run the nation like a company with the HofL , the Head of state and Parliament as equal votes on the board of directors.

This is all nonsense and a waste of time my talking about this anyway.

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

" How would such a review be enforced other than through another election? Can't have elections every year or nothing would ever get done "

No need for elections just use your mobile telephone to participate in referendums. if Switzerland can have a better system people in the rest of the world should at the very least be questioning the current system in other countries, which is riddled with lobby groups and power hungry representatives who know they can't be touched until the end of their term. This is what I meant by apathy .

Power to the people - a pervasive web will increase demands for direct democracy

http://www.economist.com/node/1534259

The Swiss are quite sensible people by the looks of it, but if you dangled 3000 euros in front of the British or Thai electorate I expect they would pass the bill by a land slide. Fundamentally I don't think the "people" are clever enough to and or educated enough to be allowed such a level of control.

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

[mccw]

"""

The International Monetary Fund is on the brink of upgrading its growth forecast for the UK more than any other major economy, Sky News has learnt.

The Fund is poised to increase its projection for UK growth in 2014 from 1.9% to 2.4%. Although the Fund will also lift its forecasts for world economic growth, the UK upgrade is significantly stronger.

It is the latest boost to the fortunes of the Chancellor, coming barely 24 hours after the Ernst & Young ITEM Club also increased its projection for UK economic growth this year.

""""

- sky news app

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

[midas]

Global Economy Risks Jobless Recovery

GENEVA — A new report finds global unemployment rates are continuing to rise, despite modest growth in the world economy. The International Labor Organization’s just-issued 2014 Global Employment Trends report says young people are particularly disadvantaged, with youth unemployment double the overall global unemployment rate.

ILO Director-General Guy Ryder says worse is to come. He says current trends indicate the number of unemployed will increase in coming years and is expected to reach 215 million by 2018.

http://www.voanews.com/content/ilo-weak-global-recovery-has-curtailed-job-growth/1833672.html

When the ILO’s spokesman was interviewed on BBC world business at lunchtime, he said there is ” too much money going into the financial markets and not enough going into real investments which create jobs “

voilà. It's just one great big Ponzi casino

Edited January 21, 2014 by midas

[midas]

So succinct

The entire economic recovery storyline is a sham built upon easy money funneled by the Fed to the Too Big To Trust Wall Street banks so they can use their HFT supercomputers to drive the stock market higher, buy up the millions of homes they foreclosed upon to artificially drive up home prices, and generate profits through rigging commodity, currency, and bond markets, while reducing loan loss reserves because they are free to value their toxic assets at anything they please – compliments of the spineless nerds at the FASB.

THE RETAIL DEATH RATTLE

A few factoids will help you understand the coming calamity:

• There are approximately 109,500 shopping centers in the United States ranging in size from the small convenience centers to the large super-regional malls.
• There are in excess of 1 million retail establishments in the United States occupying 15 billion square feet of space and generating over $4.4 trillion of annual sales. This includes 8,700 department stores, 160,000 clothing & accessory stores, and 8,600 game stores.
• U.S. shopping-center retail sales total more than $2.26 trillion, accounting for over half of all retail sales.
• The U.S. shopping-center industry directly employed over 12 million people in 2010 and indirectly generated another 5.6 million jobs in support industries. Collectively, the industry accounted for 12.7% of total U.S. employment.
• Total retail employment in 2012 totaled 14.9 million, lower than the 15.1 million employed in 2002.
• For every 100 individuals directly employed at a U.S. regional shopping center, an additional 20 to 30 jobs are supported in the community due to multiplier effects

http://www.theburningplatform.com/2014/01/19/the-retail-death-rattle/

Edited January 21, 2014 by midas

[SheungWan]

In Hong Kong we just love to go Shop-Ping.