Financial Crisis

[midas]

Cheery outlook from one UK gov. adviser:

"""

High property prices will wipe out the British middle class within the next 30 years, according to a UK government advisor. He says society will be left with a tiny elite and a huge sprawling proletariat.

The really scary thing is if in the next 30 years house prices rise as much as they have done in the last 30 years, then the average house in Britain will cost 1.2 million (US$2 million), said David Boyle, a British author and a government advisor who is a fellow of the New Economics Foundation.

According to Boyle, who spoke at the Hay Festival of Literature and the Arts, most representatives from the traditional middle class wont be able to afford a house because wages will fail to keep up with huge price increases.

"We wont own our own homes, we wont be able to afford it, he said. We cheered the rise of property prices not realizing that it would destroy, if not our own lives, but the lives of our children.

He added that in order to pay rent, representatives from the traditional middle class will have to take on several jobs. As a result, they wont have time for any hobbies, Boyle predicted.

Nobody in society will have the kind of space in their lives, space in their homes, space in their careers for any kind of culture at all, because we will be having three or four jobs to make ends meet, said Boyle.

"""

-from RT app

I don't believe that. Sure, if things continued in a straight line it would be true, but it can't.

If prices got that high, people would stop buying. Full stop.

If prices got that high, investors wouldn't buy because the average person couldn't afford to pay enough rent to justify the investment. On my rentals, I'm always pretty close if I figure 50% of rent money goes to expenses. That's without a mortgage with interest to pay.

Expenses include a vacancy factor, 10% to a rental agency to manage it, taxes, insurance including liability insurance as a landlord, repairs and maintenance, and etc. It works out pretty close.

I want my rentals to double in price while I own them, not before I buy them, LOL. If the value of my rentals had been double I wouldn't have bought them, and if they doubled while I own them, I'd have to sell them because I could do better with that much money.

People can't afford to pay double rent unless overall inflation doubles their incomes. There are major housing crashes around the world from time to time, and usually they are immediately preceeded by a great runup in price until people can't afford them.

Up to you.

You have to live in Britain to understand this national mental disorder over ever increasing house prices. A housing bubble is the UK economy. All the printy printy and low IR's and government bailouts have thus have prevented a real correction. That and the fact that the previous bubble has conditioned the developers to sit on land banks and hold them back to limit supply.

Planning is a nightmare now, brownfield and this damn ecology nonsense over "rare" species of critter or weed are also limiting supply, stalling projects.

Whole thing's a mess.

Rather than build that pointless High Speed 2 rail link between London and Birmingham to shorten the journey time by 20 minutes for the cost of countless £billions, we really need to build public housing, yes that's right, council houses again.

Honestly, British society is falling apart now between the haves (boomer generation BTL slumlords who generally evade tax) and the have nots, the renters stuck in an endless cycle of dead money going after endless debt.

The housing market has failed in the UK.

a bit late eh what ?

IMF has called on the Bank of England to enact policy measures "early and gradually" to avoid a housing bubble.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-27731567 .

[midas]

what gets me when I read this is the British government can't tackle this problem and yet could afford to spend all that money on that little soirée over in France last week, which obviously means nothing anyway because why would they have gone to war in Iraq so easily.

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/the-antihomeless-spikes-are-just-one-part-of-a-bleak-tale-for-rough-sleepers-9508946.html

[SheungWan]

MJP

I would vote for you;

But only if you promise to give the new council houses to reward hard workers, low and medium income workers (maybe eligible after 3 years of not claiming benefits) rather than the bone idle layabouts and irresponsible by choice.

It's the working people that need them. It's working people I'm on about.

I run a demolition crew in the UK at the moment. A skilled demolition driver and operative with full asbestos supervisor ticket, CCDO excavator >15m demo ticket and first aid, 30 years experience is on £9/hour. These boys have been crawling round on their hands and knees picking up asbestos until 9pm at night and the firm refuses them overtime, as in they don't even get paid for these extra hours.

They typically pay £850 a month just in rent (south east) and after tax and costs these boys are just going deeper into debt. Many suffer depression.

One of the bosses went into London last week with a mate and spent £1800 on lunch for the two of them.

UK's lost its way.

Which restaurant?

[MJP]

MJP

I would vote for you;

But only if you promise to give the new council houses to reward hard workers, low and medium income workers (maybe eligible after 3 years of not claiming benefits) rather than the bone idle layabouts and irresponsible by choice.

It's the working people that need them. It's working people I'm on about.

I run a demolition crew in the UK at the moment. A skilled demolition driver and operative with full asbestos supervisor ticket, CCDO excavator >15m demo ticket and first aid, 30 years experience is on £9/hour. These boys have been crawling round on their hands and knees picking up asbestos until 9pm at night and the firm refuses them overtime, as in they don't even get paid for these extra hours.

They typically pay £850 a month just in rent (south east) and after tax and costs these boys are just going deeper into debt. Many suffer depression.

One of the bosses went into London last week with a mate and spent £1800 on lunch for the two of them.

UK's lost its way.

Which restaurant?

I'll find out.

Sent from my SM-N9005 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[midas]

IMF sounds global housing alarm

The world must act to contain the risk of another devastating housing crash, the International Monetary Fund warned on Wednesday, as it published new data showing house prices are well above their historical average in many countries.

The warning from the IMF shows how an acceleration in global house prices from already high levels has emerged as one of the major threats to economic stability, with countries making limited progress in keeping them under control.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101752216

Edited June 13, 2014 by midas

[SheungWan]

IMF sounds global housing alarm

The world must act to contain the risk of another devastating housing crash, the International Monetary Fund warned on Wednesday, as it published new data showing house prices are well above their historical average in many countries.

The warning from the IMF shows how an acceleration in global house prices from already high levels has emerged as one of the major threats to economic stability, with countries making limited progress in keeping them under control.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101752216

So should I sell my Zone 1 pad now before it all goes pear-shaped?

Edited June 13, 2014 by SheungWan

[mccw]

I'd be more worried about spiking oil prices; 200 dollars, 400. I heard these numbers bandied around on bloomberg yesterday depending on how serious Iraq turns out; then there's Libya on the edge too. 200 dollar oil enough to depress western spending and push them all in to recession? Probably given how wafer thin the growth is. How that spirals through the debt pyramid is anyone's guess.

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

[Naam]

I'd be more worried about spiking oil prices; 200 dollars, 400. I heard these numbers bandied around on bloomberg yesterday depending on how serious Iraq turns out; then there's Libya on the edge too. 200 dollar oil enough to depress western spending and push them all in to recession? Probably given how wafer thin the growth is. How that spirals through the debt pyramid is anyone's guess.

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

-global crude consumption is ~90 million barrels a day.

-Iraq's net exports ~2.5 mbd = 2.8%

-Libya's net exports ~0.9mbd = 1.0%

crude price 200... 400?

[mccw]

I'd be more worried about spiking oil prices; 200 dollars, 400. I heard these numbers bandied around on bloomberg yesterday depending on how serious Iraq turns out; then there's Libya on the edge too. 200 dollar oil enough to depress western spending and push them all in to recession? Probably given how wafer thin the growth is. How that spirals through the debt pyramid is anyone's guess.

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

-global crude consumption is ~90 million barrels a day.

-Iraq's net exports ~2.5 mbd = 2.8%

-Libya's net exports ~0.9mbd = 1.0%

crude price 200... 400? yes

Yes

Apparently the spare capacity is only 3000 barrels a day- So tight that a majory disruption in either could cause such spike.

Price popped up 10% already just on the risk without any disruption even occurring.

In other news- looks like Russia could be disrupting gas to Europe soon.

[mccw]

One might say the Saudi can just make up the difference in supply- but difference now is they are a bit pissed off at US foreign policy recently, maybe they rather to reap the higher prices than spit out the extra oil as a favour.

Interesting time.

[Naam]

I'd be more worried about spiking oil prices; 200 dollars, 400. I heard these numbers bandied around on bloomberg yesterday depending on how serious Iraq turns out; then there's Libya on the edge too. 200 dollar oil enough to depress western spending and push them all in to recession? Probably given how wafer thin the growth is. How that spirals through the debt pyramid is anyone's guess.

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

-global crude consumption is ~90 million barrels a day.

-Iraq's net exports ~2.5 mbd = 2.8%

-Libya's net exports ~0.9mbd = 1.0%

crude price 200... 400? yes

Yes

Apparently the spare capacity is only 3000 barrels a day- So tight that a majory disruption in either could cause such spike.

Price popped up 10% already just on the risk without any disruption even occurring.

In other news- looks like Russia could be disrupting gas to Europe soon.

Price popped up 10%...

please don't torture me on a relaxing but soon ending weekend mccw, i beg of you dear Sir!

the spare capacity of the swing producers Saudi Arabia and the Emirates is not 3,000 but 2,500,000 per day. then there is another 1-1.5 million unused capacity due to the sanctions on Iran. in the worst case scenario these sanctions will be considered by some countries null and void as they are considered already by a dozen countries.

the price of WTI crude was 104.05 two months ago, today it's 106.91, nine months ago it was 110.62.

Brent was 115.20 nine months ago, today it's 112.46.

some "pop" i'd say

[mccw]

Thank you so much ^

You have put my mind at rest, few; after those fear mongers on the telly got me all worried over nothing. 55

Normally I don't watch it any more and tbh I did not bother checking the facts either- just thought post to TV as normal wind up propaganda and c what's get said cheers

[mccw]

To be fair though- I can't be bothered to check Naams "facts" either. So not sure which chat holds greater wieght. I just carry on my own plans as they are. No need to panick- just prepare

[Naam]

To be fair though- I can't be bothered to check Naams "facts" either. So not sure which chat holds greater wieght. I just carry on my own plans as they are. No need to panick- just prepare

my facts can be easily checked. rubbish such as "3,000 barrels a day" does not require any checking but just a wee bit of common sense.

for those who are interested in facts:

Saudi Arabia pumps 3,000 barrels every 26 seconds.

[midas]

To be fair though- I can't be bothered to check Naams "facts" either. So not sure which chat holds greater wieght. I just carry on my own plans as they are. No need to panick- just prepare

my facts can be easily checked. rubbish such as "3,000 barrels a day" does not require any checking but just a wee bit of common sense.

for those who are interested in facts:

Saudi Arabia pumps 3,000 barrels every 26 seconds.

Saudi Arabia pumps 3,000 barrels every 26 seconds.

The revenue from which they are using to bankroll the bad guys in Iraq

[Naam]

To be fair though- I can't be bothered to check Naams "facts" either. So not sure which chat holds greater wieght. I just carry on my own plans as they are. No need to panick- just prepare

my facts can be easily checked. rubbish such as "3,000 barrels a day" does not require any checking but just a wee bit of common sense.

for those who are interested in facts:

Saudi Arabia pumps 3,000 barrels every 26 seconds.

Saudi Arabia pumps 3,000 barrels every 26 seconds.

The revenue from which they are using to bankroll the bad guys in Iraq

may i assume they are sending you copies of all the transfers to the bad guys in Iraq?

by the way, the revenue of 3,000 barrels does not buy a lot of weaponry.

[Naam]

Thank you so much ^

You have put my mind at rest, few; after those fear mongers on the telly got me all worried over nothing. 55

Normally I don't watch it any more and tbh I did not bother checking the facts either- just thought post to TV as normal wind up propaganda and c what's get said cheers

silly figures such as "3,000 barrels spare capacity" or claims out of thin air like "Saudis seem to be p*ssed off with the U.S." doesn't wind up anybody.

you are just ridiculing yourself.

[mccw]

Wrong side of bed this morning naam? 55

Monday - back to another long boring day in front of the screens for you is it? Poor man.

I'm off out for a walk and a spot of meditation; cheerio

:-)

[midas]

Thank you so much ^

You have put my mind at rest, few; after those fear mongers on the telly got me all worried over nothing. 55

Normally I don't watch it any more and tbh I did not bother checking the facts either- just thought post to TV as normal wind up propaganda and c what's get said cheers

silly figures such as "3,000 barrels spare capacity" or claims out of thin air like "Saudis seem to be p*ssed off with the U.S." doesn't wind up anybody.

you are just ridiculing yourself.

facts are facts

Angry Over Syrian War, Saudis Fault U.S. Policy

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/26/world/middleeast/saudis-faulting-american-policy-on-middle-east.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

[Naam]

Wrong side of bed this morning naam? 55

Monday - back to another long boring day in front of the screens for you is it? Poor man.

I'm off out for a walk and a spot of meditation; cheerio

:-)

good luck, perhaps you find that spare capacity of a few thousand barrels of crude somewhere?

by the way, my days are never boring and never long enough for all the activities i would like carry out. but that doesn't make me poor, au contraire!

those who moan and whine since five years in this thread are poor and deserve sympathy except when they post pure refined BS.

[midas]

Wrong side of bed this morning naam? 55

Monday - back to another long boring day in front of the screens for you is it? Poor man.

I'm off out for a walk and a spot of meditation; cheerio

:-)

good luck, perhaps you find that spare capacity of a few thousand barrels of crude somewhere?

by the way, my days are never boring and never long enough for all the activities i would like carry out. but that doesn't make me poor, au contraire!

those who moan and whine since five years in this thread are poor and deserve sympathy except when they post pure refined BS.

“Successful people are always looking for opportunities to help others.

Unsuccessful people are always asking, "What's in it for me?”

― Brian Tracy

[mccw]

I can say from my own experience that the buy to let lenders are being much more difficult than last year and way more of pain than pre 09.

The below is from sky news app-

"""

Rightmove has claimed that asking prices in London have fallen this month as concerns over the affordability of homes in the capital deepen and more properties are put up for sale.

The property website declared that the market has come "off the boil", citing tougher mortgage rules and the prospect of rising interest rates alongside a 23% jump in the number of homes on the market.

London has been a particular concern among policymakers for the past year - with buyers forced to enter bidding wars for houses in a market lacking supply - conditions which have tipped purchasers into borrowing even more.

It was concern about loan-to-income ratios which prompted the Chancellor to agree new powers for the Bank of England to cap mortgages last week to help avoid the prospect of another market bust.

But Rightmove's report followed other recent studies which found evidence of cooling conditions.

It said that asking prices across England and Wales were at a "virtual standstill", rising by just 0.1% or £272 on the previous month to reach £272,275 on average.

While London recorded a 0.5% monthly decrease in asking prices, Rightmove said they were still up by 14.5% compared with June 2013 to now stand at an average £589,776.

The North West saw the sharpest month-on-month fall in asking prices, with a 1.8% slide.

Miles Shipside, director of Rightmove, said of the London market: "Some sellers will be looking to cash in and possibly get a lot more house for their money further out, but they may have missed the peak in the rush to realise their gains as parts of London appear to have hit the upper limit price buffer."

[SheungWan]

Wrong side of bed this morning naam? 55

Monday - back to another long boring day in front of the screens for you is it? Poor man.

I'm off out for a walk and a spot of meditation; cheerio

:-)

good luck, perhaps you find that spare capacity of a few thousand barrels of crude somewhere?

by the way, my days are never boring and never long enough for all the activities i would like carry out. but that doesn't make me poor, au contraire!

those who moan and whine since five years in this thread are poor and deserve sympathy except when they post pure refined BS.

“Successful people are always looking for opportunities to help others.

Unsuccessful people are always asking, "What's in it for me?”

― Brian Tracy

Oh Gawd.

[Naam]

when Jesus recently read "Financial Crisis" in Thaivisa he wept bitterly and begged "Father please... do not torture me by letting me drink that chalice again!"

[midas]

tick tock………………..

America's Looming Pension Disaster?

America’s sprawling 401(k) pension system will turn cash flow negative in 2016, threatening disruption for asset managers and selling of equities, according to analysis by Cerulli Associates, a research house.

http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2014/06/americas-looming-pension-disaster.html

[cheeryble]

Important trend reported by BP......Cheeryble reporting

------------

BP: U.S. oil demand growth beats China, coal's global demand share rises • 10:48 AM

The U.S. recorded its largest-ever annual rise in oil production for a second year in a row with a 13.5% increase to 10M-plus bbl/day, and U.S. oil consumption outstripped China for the first time since 1999 as it reaped the benefits of the shale boom, according to BP's annual world energy review.

Oil prices are at their most stable since the early 1970s, the review says, as the huge U.S. output increase offsets disruptions to supply from places such as Libya.

More at

http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/Energy-economics/statistical-review-2014/BP-statistical-review-of-world-energy-2014-full-report.pdf

----------

"The men are too happy Sgt. Major.

Fxck'em about a bit."

Sent from my iPad using ThaiVisa app

Edited June 17, 2014 by cheeryble

[midas]

Important trend reported by BP......Cheeryble reporting

------------

BP: U.S. oil demand growth beats China, coal's global demand share rises • 10:48 AM

The U.S. recorded its largest-ever annual rise in oil production for a second year in a row with a 13.5% increase to 10M-plus bbl/day, and U.S. oil consumption outstripped China for the first time since 1999 as it reaped the benefits of the shale boom, according to BP's annual world energy review.

Oil prices are at their most stable since the early 1970s, the review says, as the huge U.S. output increase offsets disruptions to supply from places such as Libya.

More at

http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/Energy-economics/statistical-review-2014/BP-statistical-review-of-world-energy-2014-full-report.pdf

----------

"The men are too happy Sgt. Major.

Fxck'em about a bit."

Sent from my iPad using ThaiVisa app

the IEA published a separate report that said that oil production from non-OPEC countries (where net growth has come almost exclusively from the United States) “starts to run out of steam in the 2020s.” The IEA reiterated this position in its most recent oil market report, declaring a U.S. “production plateau may be in sight, in cluding a rising percentage of supplies

that require a higher breakeven price.”

If Iraq cannot meet expectations, the world will have to find oil elsewhere. As mentioned, the U.S. may be hitting a ceiling in terms of production over the next five to 10 years, so American shale may not be the answer.

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/IEA-U.S.-Soon-To-Be-Titan-of-Refined-Petroleum-Products.html

[midas]

I'd be more worried about spiking oil prices; 200 dollars, 400. I heard these numbers bandied around on bloomberg yesterday depending on how serious Iraq turns out; then there's Libya on the edge too. 200 dollar oil enough to depress western spending and push them all in to recession? Probably given how wafer thin the growth is. How that spirals through the debt pyramid is anyone's guess.

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

“This is a fine mess that you’ve gotten us into Ollie”

The situation in Iraq is serious, and is probably going to get worse before it gets better. The potential for this recent action to morph into a regional conflict is very high. That that means that oil could go a lot higher, and if it does, we can expect the odds of a global economic recession and an attendant financial crisis to go up considerably from here.

No wonder Washington is hemming and hawing! There's no way for Obama to send support to Baghdad without undercutting a lot of carefully laid anti-Iranian propaganda. What, we're going to be fighting on the same side now as our longtime "Death to America!" adversary? Politically this is a real pickle.

http://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/85802/iraq-breaks-down-oil-surges

[cheeryble]

Sorry Midas unless it's out of quotes I cannot touch to enlarge therefore cannot read (.iOS Thaivsa app)

Sent from my iPad using ThaiVisa app

[midas]

Deprivation Britain: Poverty is getting worse - even among working families, according to major new study

The research found that rises in the cost of living mean a full-time job is no longer enough to prevent some people from falling into poverty. One in every six adults in paid work is now defined as "poor".

• More than 500,000 children live in families who cannot afford to feed them properly
• 18 million people cannot afford adequate housing conditions
• 12 million people are too poor to engage in common social activities
• About 5.5 million adults go without essential clothing

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/deprivation-britain-major-new-survey-reveals-that-poverty-is-getting-worse--even-among-working-families-9547039.html

Edited June 19, 2014 by midas