Us Dollar Came To The Gunfight With A Knife

[Harmonica]

Money talks; bullsh*t & all else walks!  You feel as strongly as I do about the $'s future direction -- perhaps even more so.  Put some money and take a stand then; because, as is evident from your "thoughting" its going to be as easy as taking candy from a California rabbit food vegetarian. hehehehehe

What do you say?  Talk is cheap -- give the singer some, man!  

I am already invested in Euro. Not directly, but most of my income is currently based on Euro. And spending in baht. So, I am in the market. In the past I balanced it by holding a certain amount of $ to minimize risk. Not this time

Anyway, the last thing I'd say about the market is that it's easy to predict. No way.

But I'd like to ask you one thing - why no Stoploss? What will happen if it falls and you're not there? Or will you sit 24 hours a day watching the screen?

Thanks for the clarifications -- OK then, as it should be, its the Euro against the $.

Let's see how it goes.

Why no STOPLOSS? Simple -- two part answer: when I'm trading I always use a STOPLOSS and adhere to it religiously and NEVER change it (unless its a trailing stop to protect gains either LONG or SHORT) -- I don't trade much and even when I do, I rarely watch the markets in real-time. So I am almost NEVER watching screens in real-time.

But when I play MT or LT TRENDS I never use a STOP because I know I'm in for the long medium-term or LT haul -- and a $1 difference is not going to matter much over a 1-2+ year uptrend/downtrend. In a downtrend I enter in the basin as the market is still going down and then when it starts heading up I really pour on the coal -- sometimes the paper losses generated by purchases during the left flank of the basin get wiped out in 2 days when the reversal occurs. Such is the awesome power of a true TREND change.

The greatest skill a player can ever hope to achieve in the markets is the ability to understand TRENDS, to get a feel for them, their idiosyncrasies, their signals, their pitfalls, their formation, where in the trend the real power is generated, etc., etc. -- it is a fascinating field and the thrill is in recognizing a trend change -- that is the title shot, the ultimate thrill!

The keynote here is .... always a student ... the market humbles us all and like you said, "it ain't easy; only the tigers survive and even for them its not easy" but with a developed skill its a TERRIFIC way to make a wholesome living.

[Harmonica]

Put up or shut up ??? 300k's (real money.. Euro's) worth of silver last week..

Thats not a 'trade' but a mid to longer term investment.. Out of everything bar some pocket change thats USA based.. perhaps 50ks worth of equity thats based inside USD markets..

Of course when the excrement really hits the rotator I will need to trim down all equity holdings (Asian / China / India / Emerging) becuase the recession  / depression will spill over and peoples taste for equity will be as reluctant as thier taste for it has been overkeen for the decade long credit boom.. Look for PE's around 8 or less on solid companies and then markets will be back in historical averages..

Good stuff, LivinLOS -- w.r.t. equities, you could always go SHORT (on solid companies with credible balance sheets and recognizable income streams etc. that are going thru' a downswing phase) -- if the markets head down in earnest, those who only play LONG would indeed have to wait a long, long time for the next recovery.

Your position in silver is interesting. I know at least one other top-notch investor who is absolutely gung-ho about it and he is seldom wrong.

Goodluck!

[LivinLOS]

Removed at posters request

Edited March 20, 2005 by dr_Pat_Pong

[Harmonica]

Remember my declaration on Page 5 or 6 of this thread? Average entry w.r.t. the US dollar Index = 81.76 .

And where is she now? ..... @ 82.83

Which is bigger, 81.76 or 82.83?

I'm in the GREEEEEN, amigos!

And next week I could be in the REEEEEEED,

God, do I love it so!

[~G~]

Remember my declaration on Page 5 or 6 of this thread?  Average entry w.r.t. the US dollar Index = 81.76 .

And where is she now?  ..... @ 82.83

Which is bigger, 81.76 or 82.83?

I'm in the GREEEEEN,  amigos! 

And next week I could be in the REEEEEEED,   

God, do I love it so!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

But will "she" be able to climb past the 84/85 barrier? Or hit her head against it and fall back down? If I were Ms. $, I would put on my helmet soon!

[Harmonica]

Remember my declaration on Page 5 or 6 of this thread?  Average entry w.r.t. the US dollar Index = 81.76 .

And where is she now?  ..... @ 82.83

Which is bigger, 81.76 or 82.83?

I'm in the GREEEEEN,  amigos!  

And next week I could be in the REEEEEEED,   

God, do I love it so!

But will "she" be able to climb past the 84/85 barrier? Or hit her head against it and fall back down? If I were Ms. $, I would put on my helmet soon!

Agreed, 84-85 is a tough resistance zone -- but if she takes out 84.333 (by my calculations) she will have busted the neckline of the Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern and will fly past several barriers upto 92-94. Shown below is the weekly with the neckline darkened and the red arrow pointing to where the breakout will occur! At 84.333.

Why do I use the word, "will" .... ?

Look at MACD and RSI below --- both have already registered breakouts!

Its just a question of time for Price to reciprocate!

God help me if I'm wrong! If the breakout is false then the January low could be taken out to the downside.

But I hold my ground and stand firm. No changes!

[bangkokian]

I've wanted to invest in Silver when it was in the $5 level, but was told that I won't be able to sell them back--no trade mark on the silver.

Considering the vulnerability of the current market, I wouldn't want to have anything to do with certificates... I am looking long term....

Is there a place in Thailand that actually trades physical silver?

I belive that the war has already started. The earthquakes in Iran were probably not real earthquakes, but manipulated. The U.S. is trying to get into Syria and iran. Taiwan will soon become a part of China, whether by force or not.... The weapons the U.S. supply to Taiwan, will be in the hands of the Chinese, and with U.N.'s approval, China will enter the U.S.A and do what it needs to do to ensure maximal benefit. There won't be a nuclear war I don't think... it's more about skillful manipulation. Microchips and mind controls are going to be big in the coming years..... Military technology is about a hundred years ahead of mainstream tech...Broadband is ancient in the military world... They were using it hundred years ago. The reverse brain drain from Nasa back to China will empower China militaristically sooner than most people would like to believe.

Pray for peace, but be prepared for the worse, so that you don't panic when the worse happens.

There were warnings prior to the Indonesian quake and Tsunami, but mainstream media does not want to feature these warnings, they prefer to feature tragedies.

[thaiaan]

I've wanted to invest in Silver when it was in the $5 level, but was told that I won't be able to sell them back--no trade mark on the silver. 

Considering the vulnerability of the current market, I wouldn't want  to have anything to do with certificates... I am looking long term....

Is there a place in Thailand that actually trades physical silver?

I belive that the war has already started.  The earthquakes in Iran were probably not real earthquakes, but manipulated.  The U.S. is trying to get into Syria and iran.  Taiwan will soon become a part of China, whether by force or not.... The weapons the U.S. supply to Taiwan, will be in the hands of the Chinese, and with U.N.'s approval,  China will enter the U.S.A and do what it needs to do to ensure maximal benefit.  There won't be a nuclear war I don't think... it's more about skillful manipulation.  Microchips and mind controls are going to be big in the coming years..... Military technology is about a hundred years ahead of mainstream tech...Broadband is ancient in the military world... They were using it hundred years ago.  The reverse brain drain from Nasa back to China will empower China militaristically sooner than most people would like to believe. 

Pray for peace, but be prepared for the worse, so that you don't panic when the worse happens. 

There were warnings prior to the Indonesian quake and Tsunami, but mainstream media does not want to feature these warnings, they prefer to feature tragedies.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Area 51 is a extraterrestrial alien staging area for the taking over of the world!

Bigfoot really exists!

The illuminati have infiltrated the boy scouts!

Britney Spears is a man who had a operation in Sweden!

[Harmonica]

G,

US Dollar Index closed at 84 -- right at the Resistance's doorstep. The resistance band can be thought to encompass the territory upto 85.

The security guards in the compound were taken out with a bow and 14 arrows!

Dollar stands right at the front door entrance. Not a sound has been made thus far in the stealth attack.

Euro is in the master bedroom, drunk as a skunk and fat from too much depraved living.

Sissy Franc is the worst type of farang woman you've ever known! She's watching TV in one of the upstairs bedrooms.

Lean, mean, hungry, swift & agile $ is about to make his move. The red arrow in the chart shows him standing at the front door!

Thursday, 24th March, 2005.

[~G~]

Harmonica,

Euro is lying in the bedroom indeed... but only pretending to be asleep.

Under the pillow he hides his secret weapon: take-profit orders, custom-prepared by forex trades who went long on the $, just to sell it all at 85

Will it be enough to survive the sneaky attack? Or will he be slaughtered in his own bed?

dollar is excited and thrilled, however on the second floor he will have to face the Ninja squad; all those japanese and chinese investors, no longer his good companions...

Edited March 24, 2005 by ~G~

[Yangpuss]

You guys have to admit...at this moment Harmonica is looking like a modern-day Nostradamus. Way to go, Harm!

[Harmonica]

Harmonica,

Euro is lying in the bedroom indeed... but only pretending to be asleep.

Under the pillow he hides his secret weapon: take-profit orders, custom-prepared by forex trades who went long on the $, just to sell it all at 85 

Will it be enough to survive the sneaky attack? Or will he be slaughtered in his own bed?

dollar is excited and thrilled, however on the second floor he will have to face the Ninja squad; all those japanese and chinese investors, no longer his good companions...

If Euro is only pretending to be asleep, it is a wonderful sign that things have changed -- previously he used to thoroughly ignore, not-is, scoff at and ridicule the Dollar. Now it seems he is resorting to subterfuge & cunning; he's running scared; dollar has gotten to him in a big way!

Euro's secret weapon ..... is the battalion of p*ssy currencies @ 85.5 waiting to unload as the odds are high indeed that Dollar will retrace (correct) @ that point; possibly earlier, but the odds favor 85.5 for a correction.

After the correction completes, if the previous LOW has NOT been violated and he starts to rise again and crosses 85.5, (the 200-day moving average), Euro will thenceforth become like a farang lady in LOS: nobody wants her even if it is offered FREE!

The ninja squad on the 2nd floor? With their stars, swords and what-not? Dollar's got a gun & Bill Clinton just gave him a Sheriff's badge!

Remember though, when the final duel at dawn arrives, somewhere around 92-94 (if we get there), Dollar has promised Euro that he will reveal who he is -- but only at the point of dying !

[Harmonica]

Forgive me -- a very important juncture has been reached -- before we even get to the 85.5 mark mentioned in post above, we've got to cross 84.41.

Why?

Because the downsloping trendline shown in the weekly chart of the Dollar Index (shown below) has repelled its advances 9 times since June 2002. Maybe that's why the forex traders are tempted to bail out.

Can't say I blame them, for it is indeed a formidable resistance -- happens to also be the neckline of an inverse Head & Shoulders pattern -- a breakout constitutes a minimum of 92-94 for the Index.

He's learned some new methods even though he hasn't given up the old ones entirely!

I'm in his corner!

[The_Moog]

What is this Dollar Index - measuring $ against what? A weighted basket?

Potentially interesting research.

Thanks

[Harmonica]

What is this Dollar Index - measuring $ against what? A weighted basket?

Potentially interesting research.

Thanks

A weighted basket of leading currencies!

[~G~]

Harmonica,

We all have our little sins, don't we? Viewing the EUR/USD online chart today,I

saw a nice crash of the Euro. The momentum was very nice, it didn't seem like it'd stop soon.

So, I really hate to do that, and even more hate to admit that, but bought myself some nice amount of $, sold them about 20 minutes later, made quick 500 baht and off home. A tiny profit, I admit, and certainly do NOT recommend these games.

[Harmonica]

Harmonica,

We all have our little sins, don't we? Viewing the EUR/USD online chart today,I

saw a nice crash of the Euro. The momentum was very nice, it didn't seem like it'd stop soon. 

So, I really hate to do that, and even more hate to admit that, but bought myself some nice amount of $, sold them about 20 minutes later, made quick 500 baht and off home. A tiny profit, I admit, and certainly do NOT recommend these games. 

Hey, nothing wrong with that, amigo. Take a look at the USD Index chart below and the complex Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern with neckline in red. Again, this is a barebones chart, focusing only on the H&S pattern.

After a breakout above the red downtrendline, @ approx. 85.2, you might be tempted to add quite a few zeros to your previous real-time bet.

I'm taking a double dose of vitamins just so I can cope with all this excitement!

[Harmonica]

If the relationship still holds firm, Easy Al will be invited to dinner. What relationship, you ask?

See below.

[Harmonica]

We are at CORE resistance! 84-85

USD has gotten himself a crossbow; so far he has vanquished foes left and right -- with just a knife!

But this next phase, to be successful, needs weaponry of a different calibre; something than can dispense with the liability of "distance" -- yet still retain the magic of stealth!

Hence the crossbow!

I can only watch; what else can I do? I would love to jump in and help, but his pride was hurt, remember? They said execrable things about him -- the worst though, was, as he himself said to me, "they were laughing at me & mocking me, Harmonica; I can't dispel the humiliation and sense of despair & degradation I felt. I've got to do this alone !"

I know!

[Harmonica]

$ took out 6 more reticent pricks with his crossbow!

At 84.9

Look Ma -- all the wildebeast have gone, probably moved off to greener pastures. But they'll be back in large numbers soon enough!

When?

Just as soon as the $ starts a correction to lower altitude -- or within 3 days of the initial drop, whenever that might be, but most likely when $ reaches the neighborhood of 85.5-86.5

[Harmonica]

$  took out 6 more reticent pricks with his crossbow! 

At 84.9

Look Ma -- all the wildebeast have gone, probably moved off to greener pastures.  But they'll be back in large numbers soon enough!

When?

Just as soon as the $ starts a correction to lower altitude -- or within 3 days of the initial drop, whenever that might be, but most likely when $ reaches  the neighborhood of 85.5-86.5

---------------------------------------------------------------

He (USD Index) closed @ 85.01, just shy of Euro's finest line of defense @ 85.29.

Will he attempt it or will he correct first?

I'm on the job and watching! Dare not guess here!

But one thing is for sure -- if/when he does start correcting, my critics will be back en masse! They are the best alarm clock there is! Heck, its getting so that a fella can't even go to the can in peace anymore without somebody taking a shot at him!

[~G~]

$  took out 6 more reticent pricks with his crossbow!  

At 84.9

Look Ma -- all the wildebeast have gone, probably moved off to greener pastures.  But they'll be back in large numbers soon enough!

When?

Just as soon as the $ starts a correction to lower altitude -- or within 3 days of the initial drop, whenever that might be, but most likely when $ reaches  the neighborhood of 85.5-86.5

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

---------------------------------------------------------------

He (USD Index) closed @ 85.01, just shy of Euro's finest line of defense @ 85.29.

Will he attempt it or will he correct first?

I'm on the job and watching! Dare not guess here!

But one thing is for sure -- if/when he does start correcting, my critics will be back en masse! They are the best alarm clock there is! Heck, its getting so that a fella can't even go to the can in peace anymore without somebody taking a shot at him!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

when you wanna shoot - shoot, don't talk!

[Harmonica]

Did you say "shoot" ... G?

Yeah, $ shot Euro yesterday -- that was definitely the word!

Didn't take him out though; just shot him in the ass!

$ is now at the gates of Paradise, just shy of the southern gate -- the 200-day moving average!

Experts are now flocking to psychiatrists in droves -- yeah, I like it!

Adios!

[Harmonica]

My favorite thread, but I've got to say goodbye. Going to be very busy for quite a while.

Will post "end of trend" when I see it!

Goodluck!

[Harmonica]

Just visiting ..... visit #1:

This has been the weaponry used by the Dollar since December 30th, when he rose from the ashes, revisited his resolve, put on his armor, ate breakfast and went to battle.

-------------------------------------------

But now we are at a new plateau, a new transition phase -- new weaponry is required for the 2nd half of this year; here is a scene that only I was privy to -- it has not happened yet; its in the future -- but he's my friend and he showed it to me.

He is the lone gunfighter towards the rear of the picture. Standing before him are the Euro, the Australian dollar and the Swiss franc.

The 3 currencies rode in to the scene on horseback.

He (USD) asks the Euro, "did you bring a horse for me?"

Chuckling and scoffing, the Euro replies, "no, looks like we're shy one horse!"

Shaking his head in disagreement USD replies, "no, you've brought two too many!"

The draw starts and all 3 get taken out!

[Harmonica]

Conspicuously absent are LivinLOS, G and numerous other individuals who were calling for death of the Dollar due to ....... absolutely horrendous fundamentals ?

What are the odds that they've learned zip from this experience and will be back at the next major turn -- just as vociferous in their calls and explanations as demonstrated recently? ..... 100%!

Here are some appetizers to refresh your collective memories: (extracted & condensed from the Net)

Remember the public hysteria about the U.S. dollar at the turn of this year? "The Disappearing Dollar" on the cover of The Economist, "The Incredible Shrinking Dollar" on the cover of Newsweek, "Chinese merchants refuse taking dollars, prefer yuans instead," "Central banks are raising their euro holdings, with 29 cutting back on the U.S. dollar...” etc., etc., etc.

Have you ever wondered what got the dollar to rally when the New Year began? That seems the least likely moment for a reversal. If markets are driven by the news, then for the dollar to get stronger, the news should've supported the rally. But it didn’t. On the contrary, opinion polls were showing the public's expectations for further declines. And yet, just as it was being decimated on every corner, the dollar suddenly got the upper hand. It staged a comeback.

And what a comeback it has been: Today, the USD stands at a 9-month high against the EUR. Economics teaches that it takes strong fundamentals to sustain a rally. But by most measures, the U.S. economy is arguably in the same shape it was late last year, when the dollar was in the dumps. The same problems that were "scaring holders of U.S. dollars" last December are still with us: the rising U.S. trade deficit , for one. So how come the dollar keeps getting stronger?

It would be very entertaining, albeit shocking, confounding & perhaps defying gravity, to hear what LivinLOS, G and other astute wizards here have to say now?

[Braccobaldo]

...wow...Harmonica...lot of amusement for you there....anyway congratulations to you and to the dollar...I was on your side some months ago....and the end is far away to come...let's go profit...

[Yangpuss]

Nobody has a better right to gloat than Harmonica. He called it, and he was right on the money. I hope he'll keep blessing us with his prognostications.

I remember well all the names he was called..."crazy"..."dangerous"... which are usually the best indications that a person is right.

Harm, do you think the dollar will get even stronger? Maybe even back to a 1-1 ratio with the euro?

Edited June 14, 2005 by Yangpuss

[Harmonica]

Thanks Bracco & Yangpuss.

Remember the documentary about the hunter(s) and the great bear they were stalking? ... and the subsequent punchline? ... "the greatest thrill is NOT to kill "

For me its like this: I'm surrounded by people on the wrong track; teachers in LOS, struggling to make a living -- numerous other individuals starting up businesses and perishing in short order. The examples are endless. And no matter what advice I might give -- to excercise some restraint, some due diligence, some pause for thought and a period of envisioning "realistic" goals -- generally it falls on deaf ears.

For me then, the greatest thrill is when a friend or enemy listens, makes my play and then profits handsomely!

And anticipating the inevitable curveball -- when my play is wrong, the losses are limited by a prudent, steadfast, irrevocable STOP! My current "call closing average" of 86% across markets keeps me generally on the right side of the flow.

Cheesy? I don't give a rat's ass! That's my style. I'm happiest when others around me are flourishing & prospering and perhaps I had something to do with it!

There you have it!

For those who might be interested, my next post will be a short lesson on "sentiment " -- one of the key ingredients to market & "Life" analysis -- in it I will provide examples of Thaivisa members' colossal ignorance and stupidity which, even though brutally exposed, is actually the only way to change a "wildebeast" ... aka follower ... aka "true believer" -- into an individual thinker.

... & for Mr. Choo Choo, yes I am really smiling for therein lies the 2nd greatest thrill -- sending Morons en masse retreating, recoiling and cowering into bunkers, muttering and swearing obscenities and exuding hatred!

God, do I love it so!

[Harmonica]

Observation of what media/investors/traders/public say about market conditions is my 2nd best tool in gauging markets to determine Tops/Bottoms.

The Media has a knack for being excessively bullish at or near a TOP & conversely super bearish at or close to a BOTTOM. They are very rarely right.

The Public and Pubic follow the Media and generally operate like a herd of wildebeast. They get whiplashed, whipsawed, buggered, diced and chopped to bits frequently ..... and here's the kicker .... they always come back for more punishment!

Thaivisa is a small site and relatively insignificant in the realm of global utterances about the MARKET of commodities, stocks, bonds, metals & currencies!; nevertheless participating members here have spoken in line with the emerging trend and as I said before, at major turning points, these members operate as a herd.

And anticipating that some moron will misconstrue the previous paragraph as a criticism of Thaivisa --

Special mention goes to Britmaveric for his correct comments (verified now in hindsight) on USD and Crude Oil.. & to Khun Lamphun for accurate comments on Oil. There are others ... Yangpuss, Maka, Bracco, bangkokian, condo_bk, wimpy and some others -- these gentlemen are not members of the herd and therefore are individual thinkers. Regards to them.

As for the mods & admin -- the ones I am familiar with; they work for free and probably spend a considerable portion of their free time trying to make this site a better place -- they would have to commit some horrible crimes before I would even consider saying anything negative about them. The ones I know thru' their posts; I like 'em all. Top honors go to Darknight, Doc. PP and Cdvnc for their decisiveness.

Risking my life here, may I suggest charging USD 25 per month for members -- get rid of the freeloading fools (a majority) and open the door to a smarter group of individuals from the "mainland" -- & give the mods a salary?

And for crying out loud, make that prick chuchok a mod -- he's been trying hard for recognition and then maybe he might excercise some restraint and refrain from his hit & run PMs to me? ... hehehehehe