Property Over The Next Two Years Let Us Forecast.

[midas]

pkrv, do not confuse your pied-a-terre with what the true Elite would own. Real Thai Elite do not own condos (unless they are for gigs, mia nois, second/third/fourth pads, somewhere to park cash, speculation, etc.)... they own Houses. And Land. Lots and lots of land. Surely I'm wrong however, and your condo is 100% sold out with 100% occupancy. And btw, The Park doesn't qualify as Elite anyway. Know your place.

The nail on the head !

[quiksilva]

pkrv, do not confuse your pied-a-terre with what the true Elite would own. Real Thai Elite do not own condos (unless they are for gigs, mia nois, second/third/fourth pads, somewhere to park cash, speculation, etc.)... they own Houses. And Land. Lots and lots of land. Surely I'm wrong however, and your condo is 100% sold out with 100% occupancy. And btw, The Park doesn't qualify as Elite anyway. Know your place.

The nail on the head !

Hold the phone, we agree on something!

[midas]

pkrv, do not confuse your pied-a-terre with what the true Elite would own. Real Thai Elite do not own condos (unless they are for gigs, mia nois, second/third/fourth pads, somewhere to park cash, speculation, etc.)... they own Houses. And Land. Lots and lots of land. Surely I'm wrong however, and your condo is 100% sold out with 100% occupancy. And btw, The Park doesn't qualify as Elite anyway. Know your place.

The nail on the head !

Hold the phone, we agree on something!

[pkrv]

Interesting - Perhaps we need to add a new category 'elite' - To qualify for this you must have lots of Hi-so and Hi-sor (I think that is the correct term). These properties appear to be doing very, very well indeed.

For me they appear to be decreasing in price.

Like the Park. Quick look on Prakard shows that going price is around 100k per sqm if not even lower already.

- One unit seems to be sold in January. Asking price was 115K per sqm.

- Other unit asking 160K on June, reduced to 135 on Dec and still for sale

- Interested buyers report that they have been offered units between 120K to 110K per sqm last December. Some of them farang owners not wanting (can not afford?) to transfer.

Situation has gone much worse since December so i would expect asking prices are now around 100K and actual sales lower than that.

Would be interesting to know how many of the units are still not transferred or transferred but empty.

Thanks and please I too need data good, bad or indifferent, it's all the same to me. I had forgotten about www.Prakard.com and yes it is a great source of information

looking at the link

http://www.prakard.com/default.aspx?g=topics&f=149

IMO activity is virtually zero. Now you can interpret that how you choose to. Journalist has expressed an interest in The Park and Athenee and I enclose his post.

I went to see some units at Athenee Residences and Park Chidlom over Xmas.

The developers of both buildings are not allowing estate agents bringing potential buyers of units to view apartments that are being re-sold by people who have not yet paid their final installment.

In these circumstances, the buyers are invited to view similar units that the developer still has on his inventory.

In turn the developer is telling its purchasers that they have to pay up before estate agents can bring buyers to see their unit.

Pricing-wise, the developer is trying to hold the line - THB150,000 psm at Park Chidlom, THB130,000 at Athenee. Those people wanting to re-sell are more amenable to a discount.

I'd conjecture that this is because the developer doesn't want to foster a price war, at least until its inventory is sold and paid for, else it might make its debt collecting even harder.

Around both sites there has been recent clearance of low rise shophouse developments of 1970s-ish provenance, and Chu-Rai Rath infant school on Chidlom has closed - presumably a candidate for site redevelopment now. With these possible future developments, people should be mindful of not only supply/demand factors, but also the effect on their view. - eg: units on the north side of Park Chidlom are now overshadowed by 'The Address' next door, which is a long, mid-height, west/east axis-oriented white building just a few metres away, and P.C. THB40m units feel quite claustrophobic as a result.

I am back over a week on Friday (I only have 30 days a year holiday) and will have a chance to research first hand, and will post back. Yes there will always be some people in trouble in a development of 218 units. But IMO we are talking about one or two thats it.

Edited February 20, 2009 by pkrv

[pkrv]

pkrv, do not confuse your pied-a-terre with what the true Elite would own. Real Thai Elite do not own condos (unless they are for gigs, mia nois, second/third/fourth pads, somewhere to park cash, speculation, etc.)... they own Houses. And Land. Lots and lots of land. Surely I'm wrong however, and your condo is 100% sold out with 100% occupancy. And btw, The Park doesn't qualify as Elite anyway. Know your place.

The nail on the head !

Hold the phone, we agree on something!

Actually that is not completley correct, they also have something called kids, and need a place to put their handbag after a hard days shopping, or just enjoy a night out on the town. Believe you me I know who I get in the lift with. Oh and apparently they will house their servants at The Address just in case they are needed And you guys think I am kidding don't you?

Edited February 20, 2009 by pkrv

[zorro1]

No! not another property thread with the same 6 repetitive posters and a few Newbies. The renters cant afford it so they will always rent. They not getting 7% on their money anymore and more than likely will see 2% in the next 12 mths. The chest beating "I make 30% a year in the markets cant get that on real estate" and I can liquidate in 2 seconds blah blah, they all gone now busted ass no money. Real estate here will out perform, interest on banks and dead rent money. Unless you got USA dollars you are screwed anyway! you missed the boat, it will cost you 30% more to buy what you could have bought last year. Now you paying 30% more for rent and only a few percent interest from your bank account. I bought at oz 32 bht condo and all furniture. Even if the bubble burst I could sell it off what I paid for it 18mths ago and still make 30% on the exchange rate! or sell it for the 30% less and break even. That's just my story so happy , very happy for now

EDIT

got carried away forgot to mention that property will remain flat at 5 mill and under. @ 25 mill what would they care anyway?

Edited February 20, 2009 by zorro1

[stingray]

As far as my expirience over the last 15 years living in Thailand, i guess it works always other ways than in europe. Property prices go up and up, doesn't matter if noone buys any property. You have to understand the System overhere. All is ruled by Chineses and Chineses never sale something below the price they paid for. They would lose their faces if thay do so. Most of properyt they build overhere is financed by the banks (loans). Surely the bank owns actually all this sophouses, appartements and Houses. The Landlord have or should pay at least the interest, but they not really have to, until they sold a building. Than they clear the bankdebt. The law protects them. If they don't pay the bank, it's gonna take 9 years (3x3 years), before the building get repossesed by the Bank. So all those Landlords have 9 year time to sell their buildings. In 9 year the recession will be over so all those Landlords can sit on their buildings and wait for a better time to sell it. Therefore sale prices will go up. But thei will rent it cheap, because thei can put the rental money in their pocked and considerit as a net profit, even if they not clearing the Bankpayments. Therefore they do in a 12 Million Baht building a 7 eleven store wich give them only 30'000 Baht profit in a month. I mean, western Peaple would never invest 12 Million Baht in a building for a 7 eleven store to make a 30'k per month. They can run the 7 eleven for 9 years and never have to pay a penny to the bank. The same is, they can rent the building to someone and what ever they get they gain on rental income is a extra profit. To many buildings will dump the price for rent, but not the saleprices.

[jcon]

pkrv, do not confuse your pied-a-terre with what the true Elite would own. Real Thai Elite do not own condos (unless they are for gigs, mia nois, second/third/fourth pads, somewhere to park cash, speculation, etc.)... they own Houses. And Land. Lots and lots of land. Surely I'm wrong however, and your condo is 100% sold out with 100% occupancy. And btw, The Park doesn't qualify as Elite anyway. Know your place.

The nail on the head !

Hold the phone, we agree on something!

Actually that is not completley correct, they also have something called kids, and need a place to put their handbag after a hard days shopping, or just enjoy a night out on the town. Believe you me I know who I get in the lift with. Oh and apparently they will house their servants at The Address just in case they are needed And you guys think I am kidding don't you?

So you do know your place... right above the Elite's maids and right below the Elite's children. Good on you.

So you must know these kids snicker behind your back in the lift and say to each other:

"Haha, he actually lives here! 5555+"

"Like, live as in home? That's so.... poor!"

"With a 'partner' no less. Hahaha"

"Let's go drop off our bags and go take a shit, and off to the clubs, ok?"

"Yeah"

So your point drives all other points home - if your condo is just a play-thing for the Elite's children, just wait til the Elite get bored of it. And they get bored quite easily. Then they go back to their HOUSES and their LAND...

pkrv, you are starting to sound defensive thesedays, and in the worst way - it's coming across as garishly arrogant. I do need to pee right now, but I'm not going to start a pissing contest with you... you can do that with your 'partner,' as both of you have swords and it would probably be more fun.

The Park in 10 years = another old building. The Park NOW is even just another building. FACT. Rationalize it any which way you want ("I'll make xxxx% on currency conversion alone if I sell" etc etc), but fact is fact.

[midas]

No! not another property thread with the same 6 repetitive posters and a few Newbies. The renters cant afford it so they will always rent. They not getting 7% on their money anymore and more than likely will see 2% in the next 12 mths. The chest beating "I make 30% a year in the markets cant get that on real estate" and I can liquidate in 2 seconds blah blah, they all gone now busted ass no money. Real estate here will out perform, interest on banks and dead rent money. Unless you got USA dollars you are screwed anyway! you missed the boat, it will cost you 30% more to buy what you could have bought last year. Now you paying 30% more for rent and only a few percent interest from your bank account. I bought at oz 32 bht condo and all furniture. Even if the bubble burst I could sell it off what I paid for it 18mths ago and still make 30% on the exchange rate! or sell it for the 30% less and break even. That's just my story so happy , very happy for now

EDIT

got carried away forgot to mention that property will remain flat at 5 mill and under. @ 25 mill what would they care anyway?

Hey zorro you cant join this thread until you have finished your homework for sections 1 and 2

And have you heard about people who are more concerned about return OF capital rather ON capital ?

Edited February 20, 2009 by midas

[pkrv]

pkrv, do not confuse your pied-a-terre with what the true Elite would own. Real Thai Elite do not own condos (unless they are for gigs, mia nois, second/third/fourth pads, somewhere to park cash, speculation, etc.)... they own Houses. And Land. Lots and lots of land. Surely I'm wrong however, and your condo is 100% sold out with 100% occupancy. And btw, The Park doesn't qualify as Elite anyway. Know your place.

The nail on the head !

Hold the phone, we agree on something!

Actually that is not completley correct, they also have something called kids, and need a place to put their handbag after a hard days shopping, or just enjoy a night out on the town. Believe you me I know who I get in the lift with. Oh and apparently they will house their servants at The Address just in case they are needed And you guys think I am kidding don't you?

Hi jcon Answers in blue. Opps I thought the smilies made the point that I was having the piss taken out of me.

So you do know your place... right above the Elite's maids and right below the Elite's children. Good on you.

Yes I know my place, I treat all Thais with dignity and respect and as equals, and find I recieve this in return.

So you must know these kids snicker behind your back in the lift and say to each other:

"Haha, he actually lives here! 5555+"

"Like, live as in home? That's so.... poor!"

"With a 'partner' no less. Hahaha"

"Let's go drop off our bags and go take a shit, and off to the clubs, ok?"

"Yeah"

Not really IMO Thais are actually far more polite than Farangs

So your point drives all other points home - if your condo is just a play-thing for the Elite's children, just wait til the Elite get bored of it. And they get bored quite easily. Then they go back to their HOUSES and their LAND...

pkrv, you are starting to sound defensive thesedays, and in the worst way - it's coming across as garishly arrogant. I do need to pee right now, but I'm not going to start a pissing contest with you... you can do that with your 'partner,' as both of you have swords and it would probably be more fun.

The Park in 10 years = another old building. The Park NOW is even just another building. FACT. Rationalize it any which way you want ("I'll make xxxx% on currency conversion alone if I sell" etc etc), but fact is fact.

Well you sort of got back to the thread, but yours is just an opinion just like mine.

Edited February 20, 2009 by pkrv

[ilyushin]

Prices will stay the same for new product and drop fro older product and the demand for pre-purchase will certainly drop off or deal will be available with high risks.

FX will apply for those who buy baht. That will be about 99.9% of the posters that can or do buy property.

Short and curly.

[shochu]

so - what is the name of this real estate firm u 2 guys work at where swords r the choice of symbols?

and why do u 2 have to keep repeating the same song over and over and over and over....

[mommysboy]

What we've got here is an argument of small differences and in some cases an agreement on small differences. All no doubt reassuring but it doesn't stop reality being reality, ie, the world economy is <deleted>, this is now spreading to Thailand and will undoubtedly impact heavily on an already over priced property market. HARDLY HAPPY DAYS???

[pkrv]

so - what is the name of this real estate firm u 2 guys work at where swords r the choice of symbols?

and why do u 2 have to keep repeating the same song over and over and over and over....

Hmm shochu - I have a horrible feeling you are bingobonkers MK II. Even midas has explained that he is a single Aussie guy with an Aussie income stream (and being UK based, I understand) and is renting in Thailand. midas is looking for options and that is great we understand his perspective, and can provide input.

I am open on this board - Who are you?

[MJo]

No! not another property thread with the same 6 repetitive posters and a few Newbies. The renters cant afford it so they will always rent. They not getting 7% on their money anymore and more than likely will see 2% in the next 12 mths. The chest beating "I make 30% a year in the markets cant get that on real estate" and I can liquidate in 2 seconds blah blah, they all gone now busted ass no money. Real estate here will out perform, interest on banks and dead rent money. Unless you got USA dollars you are screwed anyway! you missed the boat, it will cost you 30% more to buy what you could have bought last year. Now you paying 30% more for rent and only a few percent interest from your bank account. I bought at oz 32 bht condo and all furniture. Even if the bubble burst I could sell it off what I paid for it 18mths ago and still make 30% on the exchange rate! or sell it for the 30% less and break even. That's just my story so happy , very happy for now

EDIT

got carried away forgot to mention that property will remain flat at 5 mill and under. @ 25 mill what would they care anyway?

Above does not make sense much, you say you can liquidate in 2 seconds and make 30% after 18 months due xrate but others can't?

Not all here are with GBP or USD, actually euro rates against baht have been pretty much the same for few years now so no "loss" or "gains" to be made in past 18 months period.

I'm starting to think that zorro and bingobongo are same person, just kind of jekyl and hyde thing going on.

In any case it would be nice to keep this thread on topic for a while and without the bickering that has killed all other threads in past year or so. I'll be back in a week or so to see how this one goes but my hopes are not high

[jcon]

ugh so many threads on this subject... it's like the baht value threads....

so for the property market, to answer the question directly:

Some property may go up, some may still stay the same, MOST will go down. If anybody cares to argue that statement, then you must have been asleep for the past year, and if so, welcome! It's a Brave New World!

[ray08]

No! not another property thread with the same 6 repetitive posters and a few Newbies. The renters cant afford it so they will always rent. They not getting 7% on their money anymore and more than likely will see 2% in the next 12 mths. The chest beating "I make 30% a year in the markets cant get that on real estate" and I can liquidate in 2 seconds blah blah, they all gone now busted ass no money. Real estate here will out perform, interest on banks and dead rent money. Unless you got USA dollars you are screwed anyway! you missed the boat, it will cost you 30% more to buy what you could have bought last year. Now you paying 30% more for rent and only a few percent interest from your bank account. I bought at oz 32 bht condo and all furniture. Even if the bubble burst I could sell it off what I paid for it 18mths ago and still make 30% on the exchange rate! or sell it for the 30% less and break even. That's just my story so happy , very happy for now

EDIT

got carried away forgot to mention that property will remain flat at 5 mill and under. @ 25 mill what would they care anyway?

Hey Zorro ,understand what you are saying but lets talk about today , at AUD around 22.5 to THB ,and current market condition ,would you buy another property in Thailand Now ???

[midas]

No! not another property thread with the same 6 repetitive posters and a few Newbies. The renters cant afford it so they will always rent. They not getting 7% on their money anymore and more than likely will see 2% in the next 12 mths. The chest beating "I make 30% a year in the markets cant get that on real estate" and I can liquidate in 2 seconds blah blah, they all gone now busted ass no money. Real estate here will out perform, interest on banks and dead rent money. Unless you got USA dollars you are screwed anyway! you missed the boat, it will cost you 30% more to buy what you could have bought last year. Now you paying 30% more for rent and only a few percent interest from your bank account. I bought at oz 32 bht condo and all furniture. Even if the bubble burst I could sell it off what I paid for it 18mths ago and still make 30% on the exchange rate! or sell it for the 30% less and break even. That's just my story so happy , very happy for now

EDIT

got carried away forgot to mention that property will remain flat at 5 mill and under. @ 25 mill what would they care anyway?

Hey Zorro ,understand what you are saying but lets talk about today , at AUD around 22.5 to THB ,and current market condition ,would you buy another property in Thailand Now ???

ray ...........please dont encourage him ...............now we will get another long posting about the Australian stock market

[teacup]

There are so many ways to answer your question depending on what your market is, what angle you're trying to take, and your goals.

If you're a real estate investor, right now is a “beginning” of the new GOLD RUSH

[ray08]

There are so many ways to answer your question depending on what your market is, what angle you're trying to take, and your goals.

If you're a real estate investor, right now is a “beginning” of the new GOLD RUSH

Never a better time to buy , Right ?

[zorro1]

No! not another property thread with the same 6 repetitive posters and a few Newbies. The renters cant afford it so they will always rent. They not getting 7% on their money anymore and more than likely will see 2% in the next 12 mths. The chest beating "I make 30% a year in the markets cant get that on real estate" and I can liquidate in 2 seconds blah blah, they all gone now busted ass no money. Real estate here will out perform, interest on banks and dead rent money. Unless you got USA dollars you are screwed anyway! you missed the boat, it will cost you 30% more to buy what you could have bought last year. Now you paying 30% more for rent and only a few percent interest from your bank account. I bought at oz 32 bht condo and all furniture. Even if the bubble burst I could sell it off what I paid for it 18mths ago and still make 30% on the exchange rate! or sell it for the 30% less and break even. That's just my story so happy , very happy for now

EDIT

got carried away forgot to mention that property will remain flat at 5 mill and under. @ 25 mill what would they care anyway?

Above does not make sense much, you say you can liquidate in 2 seconds and make 30% after 18 months due xrate but others can't?

Not all here are with GBP or USD, actually euro rates against baht have been pretty much the same for few years now so no "loss" or "gains" to be made in past 18 months period.

I'm starting to think that zorro and bingobongo are same person, just kind of jekyl and hyde thing going on.

In any case it would be nice to keep this thread on topic for a while and without the bickering that has killed all other threads in past year or so. I'll be back in a week or so to see how this one goes but my hopes are not high

? sorry you lost me There are 2 lots of 30% mentioned in my post. One was the old argument about traders investing in stocks and yes (midas) its relevant because 6 mths ago the property posts were flooded with brokers ,investors offering a valid point at the time being invest in stocks and rent, very valid but ohhh what a catastrophe!! I feel sorry for those guys and they all gone from the forum probably back home at Mommy's house. However they did their cash in the crash so they were wrong, property has stood up amazingly well. My other 30% was referring to exchange rate and if I bought today in my case at the bht 22 to the ozzie I wouldn't get the benefit. To answer another posters question would I buy today? No not while the oz dollar is at massive lows that would make sense. USA dollars yes I would

[teacup]

There are so many ways to answer your question depending on what your market is, what angle you're trying to take, and your goals.

If you're a real estate investor, right now is a “beginning” of the new GOLD RUSH

Never a better time to buy , Right ?

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

[pkrv]

Prices will stay the same for new product and drop fro older product and the demand for pre-purchase will certainly drop off or deal will be available with high risks.

FX will apply for those who buy baht. That will be about 99.9% of the posters that can or do buy property.

Short and curly.

Thats what I thought so the poll results confuse me. I understand:

'N/A' - yes if you are Thai or have a Thai based income FX is irrelevent.

'Yes' - If you are Farang you need to bring the money in or may indeed have an income stream from overseas.

But the 'No' answers are quite high. Does this mean people have already brought in resources to Thailand during the good times (sensible move) and are living off of this resource today? I don't know. Anyone who voted 'No' for FX care to comment?

[Naam]

ugh so many threads on this subject... it's like the baht value threads....

so for the property market, to answer the question directly:

Some property may go up, some may still stay the same, MOST will go down. If anybody cares to argue that statement, then you must have been asleep for the past year, and if so, welcome! It's a Brave New World!

all said!

[mommysboy]

There are so many ways to answer your question depending on what your market is, what angle you're trying to take, and your goals.

If you're a real estate investor, right now is a "beginning" of the new GOLD RUSH

Umm, Wouldn't it be more opportune to wait for the prices go down first?

Buying in at top not so clever that

[pkrv]

ugh so many threads on this subject... it's like the baht value threads....

so for the property market, to answer the question directly:

Some property may go up, some may still stay the same, MOST will go down. If anybody cares to argue that statement, then you must have been asleep for the past year, and if so, welcome! It's a Brave New World!

all said!

It is IMO staggering that people are still contributing to the other thread dated 2006-09-19 04:30:28 (when the market was a fundamentally different place) requesting thoughts on the next two year outlook, 390 people voted. Well my maths isn't that great but didn't that discussion come to an end in 2008 and reveal as TH said 50% of people were wrong in their outlook?

I guess it takes a brain to work with this stuff

I'm still interested in the FX results - not expected at all! And IMO this poll shows actual owners and their opinions, and separates out those who have made a firm decision on Thailand from those who are just pondering the issue. IMO - interesting stuff.

[IMA_FARANG]

1. I do not currently own property or land in Thailand.

2. Possibly, in the future if the price was good I might buy.

3. At the present time I would rent instead of buying.

4. I expect prices to fall. Exactly when depends how long those that but property for "an investment" decise to admit they lost and sell thir property.

(Ruje of Thumb..Property bought at $X, now worth $3X, Can't sell curently, Gain from investment = ZERO)

5. I personally believe property prices in Thailand now are at least 20% overpriced.

Edited February 22, 2009 by IMA_FARANG

[teacup]

There are so many ways to answer your question depending on what your market is, what angle you're trying to take, and your goals.

If you're a real estate investor, right now is a "beginning" of the new GOLD RUSH

Umm, Wouldn't it be more opportune to wait for the prices go down first?

Buying in at top not so clever that

oi...If I hit you on the head with another sarcasm stick, you probably still won’t feel it……sigh sigh

[midas]

1. I do not currently own property or land in Thailand.

2. Possibly, in the future if the price was good I might buy.

3. At the present time I would rent instead of buying.

4. I expect prices to fall. Exactly when depends how long those that but property for "an investment" decise to admit they lost and sell thir property.

(Ruje of Thumb..Property bought at $X, now worth $3X, Can't sell curently, Gain from investment = ZERO)

5. I personally believe property prices in Thailand now are at least 20% overpriced.

I'm trying to understand your equation Rule of Thumb equation

If you think property is at least 20 percent overpriced ( which I am not agreeing or disagreeing with because

I have my own opinion about this ) and a property was bought at $X and is now " worth $3X ",

if he does successfully achieve $3X ( which would prove the value ) why would the Gain from investment = ZERO ?

[MJo]

Thats what I thought so the poll results confuse me. I understand:

'N/A' - yes if you are Thai or have a Thai based income FX is irrelevent.

'Yes' - If you are Farang you need to bring the money in or may indeed have an income stream from overseas.

But the 'No' answers are quite high. Does this mean people have already brought in resources to Thailand during the good times (sensible move) and are living off of this resource today? I don't know. Anyone who voted 'No' for FX care to comment?

Lot of currencies out there that are more or less stable against baht so FX is not that big issue.

Property is also purchased by expats living and working in thailand, not only pensioners. This means at least some part of salary is getting paid in baht to fulfill work permit requirements.