Sharp Decline In Thai Economy

[The Philosopher]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7905411.stm

Sharp decline in Thailand economy

Anti-government protests hit tourism in Thailand

Thailand's economy shrank at a record pace in the last three months of 2008 amid plummeting exports and tourism.

The economy shrank 6.1% in the October to December period from the previous quarter, the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) said.

This was the largest contraction since records began in 1993. The NESDB said the economy might contract 1% in 2009.

The export-oriented Asian economy has been hit by the global downturn and political unrest at the end of 2008.

Anti-government protesters shut down Bangkok's airports, hitting tourism, one of the key sectors of the economy.

'Surprise to everyone'

The numbers are bad, and well below market and government expectations

Carl Rajoo, Forecast

Compared with the same period a year earlier, the economy contracted by 4.3% in the fourth quarter.

Exports, which account for more than 60% of Thailand's gross domestic product, dropped 9.4%.

The NESDB also forecast that exports would fall 13.1% in 2009 after growing by 16.8% in 2008.

Carl Rajoo, an economist at Forecast, said: "The numbers are bad, and well below market and government expectations.

"While we have been consistently expecting weakness in economic growth, the extremely sharp drop in manufacturing and trade data towards the year-end came as a surprise to everyone, indicating the clear susceptibility of the nation to external demand pressures."

The Bank of Thailand has reduced its key lending rate by a combined 1.75 percentage point to 2% since December in an attempt to save the economy from sliding into its first recession in over a decade.

[Scott]

CNN was airing something about the Thai economy at about 8:00 p.m. tonight. I didn't catch all of it, but they said they are expecting up to 1.5 million (I think)unemployed.

Sure isn't much good news these days.

[Chaimai]

This cannot be a surprise to anyone who has even the slightest connection with Thailand.

Is this REALLY a surprise to the authorities

It is not rocket science that tourism will be hit as a result of global economic conditions and the airport protest. At 6%-8% of GDP tourism is not the biggest factor.

Exports though, must be a huge factor and those sort of reductions only serve to highlight the fallacy of the strong Baht policy. Let's hope that starts to change so exports can become more competitive and tourism gets a shot in the arm.

[BigSnake]

CNN was airing something about the Thai economy at about 8:00 p.m. tonight. I didn't catch all of it, but they said they are expecting up to 1.5 million (I think)unemployed.

Sure isn't much good news these days.

CNN, I wonder where they got their info from(??) maybe some mad ex-banking officer(MP)

[taxexile]

Sharp decline in Thailand economy

Anti-government protests hit tourism in Thailand

Thailand's economy shrank at a record pace in the last three months of 2008 amid plummeting exports and tourism.

The economy shrank 6.1% in the October to December period from the previous quarter, the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) said.

This was the largest contraction since records began in 1993. The NESDB said the economy might contract 1% in 2009.

The export-oriented Asian economy has been hit by the global downturn and political unrest at the end of 2008.

Anti-government protesters shut down Bangkok's airports, hitting tourism, one of the key sectors of the economy.

'Surprise to everyone'

The numbers are bad, and well below market and government expectations

Carl Rajoo, Forecast

Compared with the same period a year earlier, the economy contracted by 4.3% in the fourth quarter.

Exports, which account for more than 60% of Thailand's gross domestic product, dropped 9.4%.

The NESDB also forecast that exports would fall 13.1% in 2009 after growing by 16.8% in 2008.

Carl Rajoo, an economist at Forecast, said: "The numbers are bad, and well below market and government expectations.

"While we have been consistently expecting weakness in economic growth, the extremely sharp drop in manufacturing and trade data towards the year-end came as a surprise to everyone, indicating the clear susceptibility of the nation to external demand pressures." The Bank of Thailand has reduced its key lending rate by a combined 1.75 percentage point to 2% since December in an attempt to save the economy from sliding into its first recession in over a decade.

bbc news

Edited February 24, 2009 by soundman
Topic title amended.

[Ricardo]

Shouldn't the thread-title read 4th Qtr, not 3rd ?

[quiksilva]

Posted in 3 separate threads now...

[taxexile]

yes , it should.

[RobotTeacher]

Please excuse the long post as this is a hot button topic.

On tourism: While the protests came at a very bad time, the worldwide economic crisis is wreaking havoc for many countries, companies, and individuals in nearly all industries. I believe Thai tourism is more negatively effected by the economic downturn more so than the protests. I noticed much fewer tourists this season vs. a year ago. People are just not going to travel if they don't have the money and paid time off, especially people in their 20's not having good jobs that offer decent pay and paid time off each Winter. I found most travelers are from Europe and receive payments through their social systems in their countries such as Germany. Few Americans travel like this simply because they don't have the money to take vacations or time off. Often, American workers sell their 2 weeks paid vacation for 2 extra weeks pay; not taking the time off. It requires thousands of dollars to take a Sabbatical to the other side of the world and fewer travelers are turning up as a result of falling further behind the 8 ball in this economy. Teaching in Korea allowed me the priveledge several times to do just that where I'd save thousands of dollars and get 2 weeks in the Summer and 1 month in the Winter. ESL is about to see a decline too as Asian economies are export model based with the West not able to purchase at previous levels. Teachers in Taiwan are reporting a worsening job market while in Korea, they're not seeing much, if any, negative changes, but the sign of the times will catch up in Korea.

Being that I didn't like how rudely Thai people working in tourism are acting these days in response to decreasing revenues, I'm going to look further over the horizon afield for my future vacations. I went to many of the same places this past month as I went a year ago to find things had changed for the worse. Less service, lower quality, noticably more rudeness, higher prices, more aggressive touting, and more scamming such as double charging for beer and internet usage. The tourism industry is only going to further slide with many of those working it behaving badly, becuase the majority of tourists are repeat customers and newbies come on their advice. People talk and are influenced by what they say about their experiences. The banana pancake route is no longer what it once was and no longer as much of what backpacker tourists seek though it's all still out there. While the same beautiful places exist, the Thai are becoming more and more unpleasant to deal with in forgetable tourist situations. Enormous harassment, constant watching and over policing of tourists, xenophobic staring, and direct blatant rudeness as if they're jealous of tourists. I know they wish they're worth as much as a Japanese robot is.

Food exports: The world will always need food, but may not consume as much fruit in a downturn as a diet rich in fruits and vegatables is not the cheapest way to eat and it shows with how many common locals in Asians countries eat. Rice exports should continue strong as people can't stop eating rice and many Asian countries don't have enough though prices may fall. Thailand is also going to be producing more electricty and that's something an increasing population of robots is going to need.

Edited February 24, 2009 by RobotTeacher

[PhilHarries]

So the economy shrank 6.1% in the last three months of 2008 and the NESDB have predicted from that a whole 1% contraction for the whole of 2009?

Optimists. You've got to love them.

[Naam]

Posted in 3 separate threads now...

the crux of Thaivisa is that every Bill, Buck, Hank and Joe opens a new thread instead of reading and realising that the topic is already discussed sine "leap years"

a nice gesture of the moderators would be to merge those threads which belong together.

[davejonesbkk]

I am interested to know what real effects TV members are seeing in their day to day life? I don't really see many changes to be honest....

[Scott]

This sub-forum is one of the more complicated, especially for those of us who are amateurs. So many threads covering basically the same thing. I guess they need an economist to sort it all out!

[luisparis]

I am interested to know what real effects TV members are seeing in their day to day life? I don't really see many changes to be honest....

Our income plummeted, Bangkok based companies in a similar field are talking of 75% to 90% loss compared to last year on the same period. I see a huge diffence. Not fun at all although for various reasons I start to like our life in BKK more, but not sure it's viable financially. Other countries are faring hardly better at the moment so we are looking for ways to go through the crisis without fatal damage.

Edited February 24, 2009 by luisparis

[soundman]

Topics merged.

[thaihome]

....Food exports: The world will always need food, but may not consume as much fruit in a downturn as a diet rich in fruits and vegatables is not the cheapest way to eat and it shows with how many common locals in Asians countries eat. Rice exports should continue strong as people can't stop eating rice and many Asian countries don't have enough though prices may fall. Thailand is also going to be producing more electricty and that's something an increasing population of robots is going to need.

Your rant on tourism was interesting, but not really germane to the topic, but your second paragraph puzzles me greatly. What exactly are you trying to say?

Food exports make up a small part of Thailand exports, most is manufactured goods, especially electronics and automobiles. Electricity? Are you saying Thailand could export electricity? Thailand already imports electrically from Laos

TH

[RAZZELL]

Thailand and the Thai people are in for a big shock.

The West is struggling. Tourism will fall, and the amount those tourists spend who do come will also fall.

Exports will collapse due to the strength of the Thai baht/falling demand.

More trouble on the streets

RAZZ

[wasabi]

Thailand and the Thai people are in for a big shock.

The West is struggling. Tourism will fall, and the amount those tourists spend who do come will also fall.

Exports will collapse due to the strength of the Thai baht/falling demand.

More trouble on the streets

RAZZ

I believe Riots and massive protests are coming, the less developed countries will feel the most pain, though Thailand does have the big advantage of having enough food to feed their population, it just won't have enough jobs to let anyone buy that food. Call me chicken little if you will. But when this economic depression is rolling into it's 3rd and 4th year people are going to start wanting answers.

To date I have only seen small economic troubles, less people shuffling through MBK, tourists not filling up the hotspots and less medical tourism.

[mommysboy]

I am interested to know what real effects TV members are seeing in their day to day life? I don't really see many changes to be honest....

Our income plummeted, Bangkok based companies in a similar field are talking of 75% to 90% loss compared to last year on the same period. I see a huge diffence. Not fun at all although for various reasons I start to like our life in BKK more, but not sure it's viable financially. Other countries are faring hardly better at the moment so we are looking for ways to go through the crisis without fatal damage.

Likewise, it's had a massive effect on my income- so much so that I have to withdraw from Bangkok as I can't afford to live here anymore. Obviously, if you are an employee in BKK it will hardly impact at all, until/unless you get laid off.

What decided it for me is knowing the recession hasn't even really started yet in Thailand. I'd expected a tough time but I'm shocked how business deteriorated so markedly.