10,000 Police, Soldiers, Security Officials Deployed To Keep Security At Government House

[mdechgan]

Seriously though. The reds can't accomplish anything by surrounding Prem's house. That does nothing except annoy a few old people. If they truely believe in their dear leader and the republic they have to take it to the next step.

1. They will need some support from the army. Possibly from bases stationed in the rural provinces.

2. Have the police support them. Which I think they already have since the cops here are so underpaid and undereducated.

3. Have to clog bkk. Suffocate it. I mean block off schools, banks, maybe even powerplants, bridges. Park them taxis on the streets and leave them there.

4. Do they have the guts to surround palaces?

Just showing up for afew hundred baht is one thing, but actually doing something you believe in is another.

[henryalleman]

I always respect people who stand up for what they believe.

With the er...possible exception of Thaksin nes pa ?

When has Thaksin ever stood up for what he believed in? Now, "Run away for what he believed in" would be spot on.

They were talking about Koo, not that usurpator who run away and hide himself like a coward.

And as I said before I feel symphaty for Koo, because she is an idealist who will be dissapointed very soon when she see that all she hopes for will never happening;

[mdechgan]

the gung-ho red shirt fighting for Thaksin while his close family member ran and hide, man this is classic, only if they can open up their eye, maybe the picture will be clearer.

Most people in Thailand don't realize that. Remember Chalerm and how he said he was proud to protect mr. T and would gladly take one for his team? Some people would gladly take one up the bunghole if the price is right.

Edited April 8, 2009 by mdechgan

[hammered]

Seriously though. The reds can't accomplish anything by surrounding Prem's house. That does nothing except annoy a few old people. If they truely believe in their dear leader and the republic they have to take it to the next step.

1. They will need some support from the army. Possibly from bases stationed in the rural provinces.

2. Have the police support them. Which I think they already have since the cops here are so underpaid and undereducated.

3. Have to clog bkk. Suffocate it. I mean block off schools, banks, maybe even powerplants, bridges. Park them taxis on the streets and leave them there.

4. Do they have the guts to surround palaces?

Just showing up for afew hundred baht is one thing, but actually doing something you believe in is another.

A big semi-disruptive but peaceful rally (if that all ensues) that lasts for 2-3 days will put pressure on the government ot rethink strategy. In spite of what everyone says there may also be ongoing behind the scenes contact.

Short of a revolution a street protest cannot achieve anything by itself but it can influence those who have the power to change things.

Of course if violence kicks off all bets are off.

[henryalleman]

Never thought I'd see the day.. some balanced opinion in an English language Thai newspaper.

(BTW, this is an example why I rate the Bangkok post slightly higher than the abysmally biased Nation; someone asked me this a couple weeks back why the BK Post merits a better view)

Red shirts need restraint and the way forward

Even before their massive showdown with the Establishment in Bangkok today, the red-shirted protesters under the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship have demonstrated through sheer numbers that they are a force to be reckoned with. Each night since their current campaign began on March 26, their ranks have swelled into the several tens of thousands through all the roads and alleys surrounding Government House, the focus of their protest.

Their opponents and sceptics still would not respect and recognise them. The pro-Establishment bias in Thai society runs deep. Most movers and shakers have an incentive to see the government of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva succeed and to see Thailand move forward in a direction consistent with Establishment preferences and prerogatives. They may hear the reds' noises but they discount them on various grounds, from gullibility and stupidity to financial opportunism, unwilling to listen to the reds' messages.

Full article is here: http://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion...the-way-forward

very good article

[webfact]

Question: will the reds sacrifice the mother of all parties (Songkran)

and hold on and stay guard for their beloved fuhrer in hiding while the rest of the country is celebrating?

I trust their behavior will give a lot of clues how serious the situation really is.

[kurtgruen]

Lots on BBC about the demonstrations and a long interview with Abhisit, that just finished. Looks like Thailand is back in International News.

I just hope that people start Googleing "Pattaya" for images, and we will get a tourist boom over the next 12 months ;-)

(I would post the images that came up, when I googled the word, Pattaya, even with the Child filter on, but it may be against forum rules.)

Would definitely bring more tourist, but not necessarily the ones everyone wants ;-)

[hammered]

Question: will the reds sacrifice the mother of all parties (Songkran)

and hold on and stay guard for their beloved fuhrer in hiding while the rest of the country is celebrating?

I trust their behavior will give a lot of clues how serious the situation really is.

If we make Songkhran without any major events we will likely see an interlude.

[jayboy]

Abhisit is doing an awesome job in the BBC interview, considering that he is being attacked with every question. I think he handles himself quite well :-)

I disagree.It was overall an adequate performance but not Abhisit at his best, particularly in view of the petulance displayed when he was grilled by Zeinab Badawi (also a sharp witted Oxonian) on the more difficult domestic political issues.The more sensitive political issues were not touched on incidentally.On Thailand's regional role and Asean leadership he was certainly much better but on the Rohiyinga boat people issue he was frankly hopeless, bleating repeatedly about not having received evidence from the international media.In summary he did a great deal better than any other Thai politician could have managed, didn't get asked the explosive political questions (was this a condition of his appearing, I wonder?), showed a rather childish petulance when asked hard questions.Not bad but a million miles from awesome.

[Sunderland]

Conflicting reports on the banned from politics former First Lady Yaowapha... fled the country or at the Red stage????

Lookalikes being paid to satisfy/confuse the media and the masses.

[mdechgan]

Seriously though. The reds can't accomplish anything by surrounding Prem's house. That does nothing except annoy a few old people. If they truely believe in their dear leader and the republic they have to take it to the next step.

1. They will need some support from the army. Possibly from bases stationed in the rural provinces.

2. Have the police support them. Which I think they already have since the cops here are so underpaid and undereducated.

3. Have to clog bkk. Suffocate it. I mean block off schools, banks, maybe even powerplants, bridges. Park them taxis on the streets and leave them there.

4. Do they have the guts to surround palaces?

Just showing up for afew hundred baht is one thing, but actually doing something you believe in is another.

A big semi-disruptive but peaceful rally (if that all ensues) that lasts for 2-3 days will put pressure on the government ot rethink strategy. In spite of what everyone says there may also be ongoing behind the scenes contact.

Short of a revolution a street protest cannot achieve anything by itself but it can influence those who have the power to change things.

Of course if violence kicks off all bets are off.

I think that's what the reds want. Force the government to go on the offensive and call up the reserves. Get more people involved.

[mdechgan]

Question: will the reds sacrifice the mother of all parties (Songkran)

and hold on and stay guard for their beloved fuhrer in hiding while the rest of the country is celebrating?

I trust their behavior will give a lot of clues how serious the situation really is.

Well it depends, where will the booze be? If no booze where will the money to buy booze be?

[hammered]

Seriously though. The reds can't accomplish anything by surrounding Prem's house. That does nothing except annoy a few old people. If they truely believe in their dear leader and the republic they have to take it to the next step.

1. They will need some support from the army. Possibly from bases stationed in the rural provinces.

2. Have the police support them. Which I think they already have since the cops here are so underpaid and undereducated.

3. Have to clog bkk. Suffocate it. I mean block off schools, banks, maybe even powerplants, bridges. Park them taxis on the streets and leave them there.

4. Do they have the guts to surround palaces?

Just showing up for afew hundred baht is one thing, but actually doing something you believe in is another.

A big semi-disruptive but peaceful rally (if that all ensues) that lasts for 2-3 days will put pressure on the government ot rethink strategy. In spite of what everyone says there may also be ongoing behind the scenes contact.

Short of a revolution a street protest cannot achieve anything by itself but it can influence those who have the power to change things.

Of course if violence kicks off all bets are off.

I think that's what the reds want. Force the government to go on the offensive and call up the reserves. Get more people involved.

It may just be as simple as the government agreeing to the PTP national reconcilliation bill although that risks blowing the top off of the other side so maybe a negotiated version of it.

[Sunderland]

Not surprised at the big numbers. There are a lot of powerful people involved in organising this to add to the already committed red regulars. Pathum Thani and Chachoengsao could easily be providing 20-30K people between them add on Bangkok and you already have a lot of people.

However, what happens is maybe more critical than the pure numbers.

I imagine that migrant workers based in Bangkok might jump on the red bandwagon, but don't sense that the silent majority of Bangkokians will be rushing to join in with the protests and it is them that ultimately make the difference to which way this will go. Without a mass uprising, the whole thing will die down again overnight and not resurface to the same level until after Songkran.

Governments usually buckle under serious pressure from the masses or violent confrontation. Neither has occurred until now.

[henryalleman]

Special thanks to Jayboy who informed me that Abhisit is on BBC world hardtalk at 15.30 and 21.30

Thai Time

world time table BBC world

http://www.bbcworldnews.com/Pages/Schedules.aspx?

[kurtgruen]

Question: will the reds sacrifice the mother of all parties (Songkran)

and hold on and stay guard for their beloved fuhrer in hiding while the rest of the country is celebrating?

I trust their behavior will give a lot of clues how serious the situation really is.

Well it depends, where will the booze be? If no booze where will the money to buy booze be?

I think it would be a very dangerous and explosive situation, to have these demonstrations continue on through Songkran. I'm not gonna' revisit history and repost all the photos of drunk, raving mad REDS with machetes attacking the other side, but I'm sure, most of you will remember what happened last October...

I don't want to see alcohol added to this crowd. (or jabba or any other mood or mind altering drug). They are crazy enough without it.

Besides, wouldn't it be nice, if they could tell their grandchildren one day, how they took part of a huge, peaceful protest, with no weapons, no alcohol and very little violence; just people wanting to bring down the government and bring back their hero.

Makes it sound a lot nicer, than saying...we got drunk and stoned, with the money Thaksin's henchmen paid us, listened to their lies on stage and then it all turned violent. We never figured out, that we were only being used as pawns, until years later. We should have taken the first clue, when Thaksin's family fled Thailand, instead of Thaksin coming and leading us, as he had promised.

[hammered]

Not surprised at the big numbers. There are a lot of powerful people involved in organising this to add to the already committed red regulars. Pathum Thani and Chachoengsao could easily be providing 20-30K people between them add on Bangkok and you already have a lot of people.

However, what happens is maybe more critical than the pure numbers.

I imagine that migrant workers based in Bangkok might jump on the red bandwagon, but don't sense that the silent majority of Bangkokians will be rushing to join in with the protests and it is them that ultimately make the difference to which way this will go. Without a mass uprising, the whole thing will die down again overnight and not resurface to the same level until after Songkran.

Governments usually buckle under serious pressure from the masses or violent confrontation. Neither has occurred until now.

I basically agree with that. This, unless violence ensues in the next day or two, seems to be a show of strength that has a definite end point. Muscle flexing and all that. I will add again as long as violence is avoided. A street demo cannot change anything itself unless it is a revolution but it can cause those that can change things to do so.

The reds are still growing their demos though. Until they plateau or the government collapses we wont know how far this will go. Organising repeated demos of this size is not easy so if this goes to after Songkran without resolution or negotiation then it is likely there will be a big push from the reds and then we will see who gets to win.

Another possibility is that people turn against the demonstrators. These kind of events can only prosper and succeed if the silent majority either tacitly back them or as more usually happens the silent majority just srtay silent and out of politics.

Interesting to watch the country change but hopefully it will be done peacefully and by consensus.

Edited to add: Old Nirmal on the Straits time blog has some quotes form Jakrpob who says they cant go home empty handed and must stay indefinitely (or until they achieve something) and maintain the numbers at the demo. Maybe they are going to try and stay through Songkhran.

Edited April 8, 2009 by hammered

[photojourn]

Just popped back for a moment to drop man image from 7.52am this morning. The mass of people you can see extends well past the large projection screen circled in green. In addition all of the space under the canopies on the left side were full, as was the road running across the back and left side of Government House. The road at the back of Government House is at least six lanes. In front of Government House are two roads with a canal in between. The road closest to Government House was full, while the road ont he other side of the canal and extending back behind were the shot was taken were both heavily conjested also.

Admittedly it's hard to judge the size of a crowd while on the ground but it take take me more than an hour to get through the crowd at that time of the morning and walk around the Government House complex - a walk I have completed in less than 20 minutes in the past.

There were no helicopters overhead all the morning I was there. I doubt Thai television stations run to the luxury of helicopters.

To those people who doubt the information my translator obtained from people she spoke to please take note. I and she are professional at what we do and she is well able to get people to talk. More importantly, the conversations were carried out without me being in the vicinity. I repeat, of the 200 or so people she spoke to none said they had received any financial incentive. My first hand observation was of large quantities of notes with Bt1,000 bills attached being passed up to the stage.

Those TV members who want to label the red shirts as poor or uneducated, much the way the ABC (Australia) has done, should disconnect themselves from their oxygen bottles and push their walking frames down to the rally or pull their heads out of the sand. There are a large number of quite well educated and literate people at this rally. these are not (all) hicks from the boonies.

Perhaps those with more experience at estimating crowd numbers can venture an opinion based on this one photo?

Thanks to those who have read the Op-ed and left comments. More later.

Cheers

John

[waza]

What time does Thaksin speak?

[Steve2UK]

Conflicting reports on the banned from politics former First Lady Yaowapha... fled the country or at the Red stage????

I'm still looking to find any reports that say "fled". I see only "left" and "departed". Your source?

[hammered]

Apparently (TV) the list of those who have to resign now includes Charnchai the guy who was going to be offed along with Prem, Surayud and Abhisit.

[Steve2UK]

Just popped back for a moment to drop man image from 7.52am this morning. The mass of people you can see extends well past the large projection screen circled in green. In addition all of the space under the canopies on the left side were full, as was the road running across the back and left side of Government House. The road at the back of Government House is at least six lanes. In front of Government House are two roads with a canal in between. The road closest to Government House was full, while the road ont he other side of the canal and extending back behind were the shot was taken were both heavily conjested also.

Admittedly it's hard to judge the size of a crowd while on the ground but it take take me more than an hour to get through the crowd at that time of the morning and walk around the Government House complex - a walk I have completed in less than 20 minutes in the past.

There were no helicopters overhead all the morning I was there. I doubt Thai television stations run to the luxury of helicopters.

To those people who doubt the information my translator obtained from people she spoke to please take note. I and she are professional at what we do and she is well able to get people to talk. More importantly, the conversations were carried out without me being in the vicinity. I repeat, of the 200 or so people she spoke to none said they had received any financial incentive. My first hand observation was of large quantities of notes with Bt1,000 bills attached being passed up to the stage.

Those TV members who want to label the red shirts as poor or uneducated, much the way the ABC (Australia) has done, should disconnect themselves from their oxygen bottles and push their walking frames down to the rally or pull their heads out of the sand. There are a large number of quite well educated and literate people at this rally. these are not (all) hicks from the boonies.

Perhaps those with more experience at estimating crowd numbers can venture an opinion based on this one photo?

Thanks to those who have read the Op-ed and left comments. More later.

Cheers

John

Thank you for the eye-witness reporting - a refreshing change from the banal and febrile imaginings of some here. BTW - my compliments on the article at your website; as good and balanced a summary as one can expect to find.

[henryalleman]

Conflicting reports on the banned from politics former First Lady Yaowapha... fled the country or at the Red stage????

Since when is the wife of an PM a First lady, by my knowledge they don't call her like that in any country, most of the time they are completely at the background and almost never seen in public.

Anyhow this is the case in Continental Europe.

[h90]

Conflicting reports on the banned from politics former First Lady Yaowapha... fled the country or at the Red stage????

Since when is the wife of an PM a First lady, by my knowledge they don't call her like that in any country, most of the time they are completely at the background and almost never seen in public.

Anyhow this is the case in Continental Europe.

I Austria First Lady would refer to the Presidents wife not to the PMs.

I don't know for UK

[mdechgan]

I see very few channels covering news. Unlike the PAD demonstrations. As of 5:30 pm only channel 3 and TPBS have coverage of the protest. NBT has news about other stuff. Channel 9 has "the star" interview. Channel 7 has some talkshow or game show, channel 5 has a talk show about food. On channel 3 sms 100% of the messages are like "i love the king," togetherness, lets love each other, love the country, etc.

I still believe many or even the majority of the bangkokians don't approve of the demonstrations.

[mdechgan]

There's an interview on channel 3 about how some protesters are confused. Because they were expecting the shinawatra clan to walk on the streets together but instead flee the country. The protesters are questioning about what contract is this.

[chowder]

Those TV members who want to label the red shirts as poor or uneducated, much the way the ABC (Australia) has done, should disconnect themselves from their oxygen bottles and push their walking frames down to the rally or pull their heads out of the sand. There are a large number of quite well educated and literate people at this rally. these are not (all) hicks from the boonies.

Red-shirts demand PM, Prem, Surayud, Charnchai to resign, resign from what they are not the government, they are appoint by you know who, to serve the you know who, educated in your term but not too smart if you ask me.

[jayboy]

Conflicting reports on the banned from politics former First Lady Yaowapha... fled the country or at the Red stage????

Since when is the wife of an PM a First lady, by my knowledge they don't call her like that in any country, most of the time they are completely at the background and almost never seen in public.

Anyhow this is the case in Continental Europe.

It's the case here too.As in most monarchical systems,there is no Thai version of a First Lady (ie wife of the PM).It's a mistake that Americans often make.

Edited April 8, 2009 by jayboy

[p_brownstone]

Just popped back for a moment to drop man image from 7.52am this morning. The mass of people you can see extends well past the large projection screen circled in green.

<snip>

Perhaps those with more experience at estimating crowd numbers can venture an opinion based on this one photo?

This is the evidence you submit to justify your earlier claim of "150,000 to 200,000" attendees at this event?

There are no more than 1,000 to 1,200 even vaugely identifiable individuals in this photo.

As for your claim that no one you spoke to had admitted to being paid to attend - maybe so. I can however assert that after a round of Golf at a Club in Central Bangkok earlier today at least 20 of the Caddies were eager to leave and go to the "Rally" in order to claim a cash reward for doing so.

(They were equally eager to participate in the general "Sanook" atmosphere that prevails in these situations of course)

Patrick

[Old Man River]

Just popped back for a moment to drop man image from 7.52am this morning. The mass of people you can see extends well past the large projection screen circled in green. In addition all of the space under the canopies on the left side were full, as was the road running across the back and left side of Government House. The road at the back of Government House is at least six lanes. In front of Government House are two roads with a canal in between. The road closest to Government House was full, while the road ont he other side of the canal and extending back behind were the shot was taken were both heavily conjested also.

Admittedly it's hard to judge the size of a crowd while on the ground but it take take me more than an hour to get through the crowd at that time of the morning and walk around the Government House complex - a walk I have completed in less than 20 minutes in the past.

There were no helicopters overhead all the morning I was there. I doubt Thai television stations run to the luxury of helicopters.

To those people who doubt the information my translator obtained from people she spoke to please take note. I and she are professional at what we do and she is well able to get people to talk. More importantly, the conversations were carried out without me being in the vicinity. I repeat, of the 200 or so people she spoke to none said they had received any financial incentive. My first hand observation was of large quantities of notes with Bt1,000 bills attached being passed up to the stage.

Those TV members who want to label the red shirts as poor or uneducated, much the way the ABC (Australia) has done, should disconnect themselves from their oxygen bottles and push their walking frames down to the rally or pull their heads out of the sand. There are a large number of quite well educated and literate people at this rally. these are not (all) hicks from the boonies.

Perhaps those with more experience at estimating crowd numbers can venture an opinion based on this one photo?

Thanks to those who have read the Op-ed and left comments. More later.

Cheers

John

I have experience. It looks like 12 to me. OK, just kidding, but as Hammered said earlier, the numbers are academic. More importantly is do they get what they want? Personally, I doubt it, but time will tell.