Will Thailand Descend Into Civil War?

[AsiaMB]

Look at it this way, the real losers here are the Thai People, dont they understand that this constant inner turmopil will only stop tourism, increase unemployment, and make Thailand look like that there is absolutely no security. The Govt (irrespective of who is in power now) does not hjave the mandate, nor the gumption to police or maintain civil order in thgis society. No foreign dignitary feels safe and I doubt will ever set foot into Thailand again....

I dont see anything except a civil war as what will happen next for Thailand.....I dont think anyone has respect for anyone, irrespective as top what colour shirt they wear when they resort to violence or other measures currently happening at the moment....

[hhgz]

Thanks for your insightful analysis of the situation.

[deprogrammed]

Look at it this way, the real losers here are the Thai People, dont they understand that this constant inner turmopil will only stop tourism, increase unemployment, and make Thailand look like that there is absolutely no security. The Govt (irrespective of who is in power now) does not hjave the mandate, nor the gumption to police or maintain civil order in thgis society. No foreign dignitary feels safe and I doubt will ever set foot into Thailand again....

I dont see anything except a civil war as what will happen next for Thailand.....I dont think anyone has respect for anyone, irrespective as top what colour shirt they wear when they resort to violence or other measures currently happening at the moment....

You must consider that most of the thais involved in this chaos have the mentality of a ten year old (ten year old thai that is)

[noahvail]

/quote/ You must consider that most of the thais involved in this chaos have the mentality of a ten year old (ten year old thai that is) /end quote/

And your reseach that makes you draw this conclusion is....where?

[bravingbangkok]

Look at it this way, the real losers here are the Thai People, dont they understand that this constant inner turmopil will only stop tourism, increase unemployment, and make Thailand look like that there is absolutely no security. The Govt (irrespective of who is in power now) does not hjave the mandate, nor the gumption to police or maintain civil order in thgis society. No foreign dignitary feels safe and I doubt will ever set foot into Thailand again....

I dont see anything except a civil war as what will happen next for Thailand.....I dont think anyone has respect for anyone, irrespective as top what colour shirt they wear when they resort to violence or other measures currently happening at the moment....

You must consider that most of the thais involved in this chaos have the mentality of a ten year old (ten year old thai that is)

OMG this is soooooooooooooooo right and thank God someone has finally said it. These red shits represent a bunch of uneducated misled people. I feel for them greatly as they do not even know the facts but on the other hand are just being greedy by taking money to course chaos ! Utter disgrace.

[WorldwideALOHA]

The Hatfield's and the McCoy's ... Thai style.

Aloha

[moskito]

I just saw in the news how the Reds attacked a car following the PMs vehicle. The car was attacked with everything the Reds can find, the car driver was pulled outside and kicked again and again with feets in his face......If Mr. Thaksin forced his troops to act like this he have to be punished. This pictures will go around the world and show how the land of smile really IS. Its one thing to want a comeback, its another to act like this due to a hurted Ego.

Revolutions are good things, as long as it goes nonviolent

.....pack your stuff farangs, its over..............

[esprit]

Look at it this way, the real losers here are the Thai People, dont they understand that this constant inner turmopil will only stop tourism, increase unemployment, and make Thailand look like that there is absolutely no security. The Govt (irrespective of who is in power now) does not hjave the mandate, nor the gumption to police or maintain civil order in thgis society. No foreign dignitary feels safe and I doubt will ever set foot into Thailand again....

I dont see anything except a civil war as what will happen next for Thailand.....I dont think anyone has respect for anyone, irrespective as top what colour shirt they wear when they resort to violence or other measures currently happening at the moment....

You must consider that most of the thais involved in this chaos have the mentality of a ten year old (ten year old thai that is)

A Ten year old Thai boy's mentality is almost entirely influenced by their parents at that age. Therefore given that the majority of the Thai adult population are generally uneducated, ( by Western standards ), probably at best have an attention span of less than 5 minutes and ignore all things that may give them an insight and a broader understanding beyond the local Somtam stall, then a fairer comparison may be to that of three legged soi dog with rabies that has been hit by a car. In other words spasmodically mad, unable to come to any sort of balanced opinion, and with a displaced back bone ! Of course they still like their differant coloured T shirts.

[h90]

Look at it this way, the real losers here are the Thai People, dont they understand that this constant inner turmopil will only stop tourism, increase unemployment, and make Thailand look like that there is absolutely no security. The Govt (irrespective of who is in power now) does not hjave the mandate, nor the gumption to police or maintain civil order in thgis society. No foreign dignitary feels safe and I doubt will ever set foot into Thailand again....

I dont see anything except a civil war as what will happen next for Thailand.....I dont think anyone has respect for anyone, irrespective as top what colour shirt they wear when they resort to violence or other measures currently happening at the moment....

There is civil war at the moment! The question is do we have a couple dead and situation cleared or if it will be the next 10 years (or look Myanmar...it can be longer)

[COSMOdude]

I hope that the airports stay in business as I am going to be in BKK next week!

[AsiaMB]

Look at it this way, the real losers here are the Thai People, dont they understand that this constant inner turmopil will only stop tourism, increase unemployment, and make Thailand look like that there is absolutely no security. The Govt (irrespective of who is in power now) does not hjave the mandate, nor the gumption to police or maintain civil order in thgis society. No foreign dignitary feels safe and I doubt will ever set foot into Thailand again....

I dont see anything except a civil war as what will happen next for Thailand.....I dont think anyone has respect for anyone, irrespective as top what colour shirt they wear when they resort to violence or other measures currently happening at the moment....

You must consider that most of the thais involved in this chaos have the mentality of a ten year old (ten year old thai that is)

Thats 90% of the thai population........(mentality of as 10 yo)

[PhilHarries]

I think civil war is unlikely but I would expect a period of civil unrest with periodic outbreaks of trouble. Thaksin and his henchmen have been given a bloody nose but they are not just going to crawl away and quietly let things be. There's too much at stake financially for him to do that plus he's lost face big time now so, as with many conflicts, he's lost the battle but will be back.

Of course they've got their Battle of Pattaya victory medals but that doesn't count for much against the big prize.

As for the real losers in all this, of course the ordinary Thai people will be paying for this for years to come but it won't be those that caused the damage. They can all crawl back into their rice paddies and taxi cabs and just pick up where they left off. Let's face it they've got no political ideals, that's not what it was all about, but they've had a good few days fun, got paid a few thousand Baht and smashed up Bangkok into the bargain. All in all a good Songkran for the rent-a-mob.

[slapout]

The Hatfield's and the McCoy's ... Thai style.

Aloha

The big difference being that old Anise (sp) had a long memory and the social standing or even gender of the opposition did not exempt them from retribution. Doubt if hand axes, iron bars, and traffic signs were a part of either sides weapons of warfare. Seems they did use fire as a method of rooting out those in hiding but not as a offensive weapon.Thai style would be like sending rookies to the major leagues. Come to think of it, you are probably correct.

[Scott]

The country is to Bangkok-centric. The elite and powerful live in Bangkok and that's all they care for. The remainder of the country remains reliant on, but wary of BKK. They seldom actually officially move their household registration from their villages and they remain loyal to the home area.

So, you have a definite geographical split in alliances and you have a economic divide--along with a majority having rural roots and coming from at least a slightly impoverished background. You have a lot of people who now see the rich and powerful avoid any kind of legal consequences for any action and you see pretty swift action against those who defy the elite. You also see favoritism in whom the military will help and who they won't.

Whether all of this results in civil war remains to be seen--but it is going to take someone very special to be the great "equalizer."

[Nostraforce]

Most emerging democracies experience conflict, often of the prolonged violent bloody type, to establish themselves as fully fledged democracies.

According to Snyder (University of Columbia) the question of violent conflict in the transition phase to full democracy is dependant of 2 factors; The compatibility of elite interests with democracy and the strength / objectivity of the state institutions. In Thailand there's a battle between one old elite group (Old aristocracy/military/royalists) whose interests are not really served by full democracy and one new elite group (Big business) with more flexible interests that are compatible with full democracy. The corresponding weakness of the state institutions allows unending manipulation by the elite.

So now we see a continuious battle between elites and manipulation through state institutions which infuriates the normal people and on top of that their first real democratic constitution that the people fought years over in the 90's has been turned back. And there is the prospect of a big power vacuum coming up. What will happen for instance in the south when the respect that the network monarchy commands disappears?

Edited April 14, 2009 by Nostraforce

[NanLaew]

A Ten year old Thai boy's mentality is almost entirely influenced by their parents at that age. Therefore given that the majority of the Thai adult population are generally uneducated, ( by Western standards ), probably at best have an attention span of less than 5 minutes and ignore all things that may give them an insight and a broader understanding beyond the local Somtam stall, then a fairer comparison may be to that of three legged soi dog with rabies that has been hit by a car. In other words spasmodically mad, unable to come to any sort of balanced opinion, and with a displaced back bone ! Of course they still like their differant coloured T shirts.

I guess there's not much going for you in Thailand then, eh?

[NanLaew]

Most emerging democracies experience conflict, often of the prolonged violent bloody type, to establish themselves as fully fledged democracies.

According to Snyder (University of Columbia) the question of violent conflict in the transition phase to full democracy is dependant of 2 factors; The compatibility of elite interests with democracy and the strength / objectivity of the state institutions. In Thailand there's a battle between one old elite group (Old aristocracy/military/royalists) whose interests are not really served by full democracy and one new elite group (Big business) with more flexible interests that are compatible with full democracy. The corresponding weakness of the state institutions allows unending manipulation by the elite.

So now we see a continuous battle between elites and manipulation through state institutions which infuriates the normal people and on top of that their first real democratic constitution that the people fought years over in the 90's has been turned back. And there is the prospect of a big power vacuum coming up. What will happen for instance in the south when the respect that the network monarchy commands disappears?

I think that's the best analysis I have seen on TV of the ongoing Thai rodeo. The monarchist alliance were scared sh!tless of the "Thailand Inc." envisioned by Thaksin; before he caught megalomania and lost the plot that is. Thaksin's shadow diminishes despite the local media's ongoing misinformation drive and blaming him for all the current unrest. The monarchists always knew this but are really worried now that most of the free-thinking Thai population also are aware of this myth.

The pending power vacuum will be filled, as usual, by the men in fatigues but the Thai populace have tasted better times and won't put up with any Burmese style dictatorship. The military usually appoint their own 'gray men' who somehow manage to keep the train on the tracks but after their farcical efforts to actually run the show themselves the last time (after they deposed Thaksin and threw out the best Constitution the country had), I am worried that they will be a tad more draconian the next time around. There's a lot of old men calling the shots that live on a different planet from the huge, relatively new and incredibly well-informed and opinionated Thai middle-class.

Of course there's always the UN to intervene if things go totally pear-shaped but I don't recall Thailand ever listening to anyone that isn't Thai when it comes to common sense, basic democracy and good governance. Therefore, civil war is inevitable with the only caveat being that like the current 'democracy', it will be uniquely Thai.

[Nostraforce]

Well the biggest factor in all this goes unnamed ofcourse.

Duncan Mc Cargo has written extensively about network monarchy, the way the monarchy rules through informal patronage networks, it makes you realise a lot of this invisible hand stuff that's take for granted at the moment could change within a few years.

Like Thaksin said in the CNN interview 'when the elephant dies, you cannot cover him with a small piece of leaf'

but I'm sure he's not the only one pondering this question...

Edited April 14, 2009 by Nostraforce

[Who, me ?]

Look at it this way, the real losers here are the Thai People, dont they understand that this constant inner turmopil will only stop tourism, increase unemployment, and make Thailand look like that there is absolutely no security. The Govt (irrespective of who is in power now) does not hjave the mandate, nor the gumption to police or maintain civil order in thgis society. No foreign dignitary feels safe and I doubt will ever set foot into Thailand again....

I dont see anything except a civil war as what will happen next for Thailand.....I dont think anyone has respect for anyone, irrespective as top what colour shirt they wear when they resort to violence or other measures currently happening at the moment....

You must consider that most of the thais involved in this chaos have the mentality of a ten year old (ten year old thai that is)

Thats 90% of the thai population........(mentality of as 10 yo)

This is very much disrespectful for Thai people, and moreover based on nothing. This kind of post is useless, and only shows how poorly educated you are. You sound like a racist to me and best is that you go back to where you come from !

[ernest1966]

A Ten year old Thai boy's mentality is almost entirely influenced by their parents at that age. Therefore given that the majority of the Thai adult population are generally uneducated, ( by Western standards ), probably at best have an attention span of less than 5 minutes and ignore all things that may give them an insight and a broader understanding beyond the local Somtam stall, then a fairer comparison may be to that of three legged soi dog with rabies that has been hit by a car. In other words spasmodically mad, unable to come to any sort of balanced opinion, and with a displaced back bone ! Of course they still like their differant coloured T shirts.

Disgusting, these people shouldn't be allowed to vote even. How can the civilised people of Bangkok put up with these country bumpkins eh? No education, stupid, disgusting, smelly, can't even speek engrish. they drag thailand down to there level, sheesh!

Sarcasm over. 99% of thailands wealth comes from these poor buggers working overseas sending money home, working in the factories, in the sex industry, from the rice fields and other agricultural exports.

But they are not allowed to have a goverment of their own, that they voted in.

Thats democracy for you, eh.

[MiG16]

I know everyone has different angles they would like to approach when discussing politics. However, there are more than 10 threads running in the general forum alone.

for this reason, Im closing this thread. not because it violates any forum rules. it doesnt.

but only because there are numerous threads running where you can discuss the pros/cons, parties, people of thai politics. It would facilitate discussions better if they were consolidated into perhaps 2 or 3 threads, rather than so many.

please continue to contribute in one of existing threads instead of starting new ones

each of your input and views are valued.

thanks so much for your understanding and patience

PS. also.. for this particular thread..I hope I can also say it is now outdated?...as Thailand has not (and I hope will never!) enter civil war and the probability of it has now been removed.