Stronger Baht/usd

[Maka]

Japanese yen continues to be affected by poor data, which is really strange.........I dunno but I thought it was normal for curriencies to be affected by poor data?

by Toshi Honda, a currency strategist at Mizuho Corporate Bank, Ltd....a guy with no agenda?

It looks like Gov. Dodge gets about as much reaction from the markets as I do! UGH!........Mmmmmmmm wonder why?

"The dollar will continue to weaken and gold will advance in the next couple of years because of the combined effects of the twin deficits."......seems like we've been hearing this for many years now? Should take effect any moment now?

I'm so confused on this......Uh huh I can see that.

"Everybody Plays The Fool"

Nuff said

[TokyoT]

As Maka points out the “experts” have been telling us for years all about how bad the US “twin deficits” are, and what effects it will have on the dollar. Last year they are all patting themselves on the back as the dollar weakened. This year they seem to be pretty quite as the dollar comes charging back.

One thing you have to keep in mind relativity – the US may not be a storybook case for strengthening one’s currency – but who else is doing a better job? No one right now, and that why the US dollar has stepped back up to the plate.

As you and Mr. Doge, and many other “experts” point out these deficient are most likely not sustainable long term. The problem here is defining what is “long term” - again we have already been hearing the same thing for years now. Who knows next week the house of cards could come tumbling down. This is after all a speculative market and things have been know to change quickly. Still the biggest problem is that no other currency has what it takes to step in the ring and go toe-to-toe with the big bad buck.

[Harmonica]

Fellas, good points on the trade deficit and other factors relating to the US economy -- however IMHO these cannot be reliably used to gauge market bottoms or tops because "madness" is very difficult to bank.

What do I mean? Bubbles, current account deficits, trade imbalances etc. can get not just horrendous, they can exceed even horrendous squared or cubed etc., before the sh*t explodes and everything crumbles like a house of cards.

But trying to predict how far the level of madness will go before it reverses and implodes .... hey, shoot me but I do have the gall to state that the ONLY technology available today that can even take a reasonable shot at this monumental task, is Technical Analysis.

Fundamental Analysis will fail and has done so consistently and repeatedly for an antediluvian period.

Just IMHO, amigos. If some fella comes out with a better method and can demonstrate its efficacy I will be the first to sign up for the course.

Happy trails to all here

[Harmonica]

I havent been reading this thread since it's inception but the feeling I get is that many of you feel the USD is going to rally and get stronger?  If you think that, I have some swamp land in Florida I want to sell .  Simple fact of the matter is that the US is running two huge twin deficits that are simply unsustainable and eventually the USD will have to depreciate.  Asian currencies should have a nice run up when this happens along with the Euro. 

I'd be ecstatic to take that swamp land off you, sire -- but can we do this after the real estate bubble bursts -- whenever that happens?

[Harmonica]

Japanese Yen took out and crossed the 110 barrier and he has asked Miss Baht out on a date and it sure looks like she is tempted to respond positively.

All this while our friend, the Dollar looks on at the Yen and with a smile says, I'm coming for you, amigo -- I'm going to whup you real good!

Come on out Dollar bears -- here's one to think about:

What's the definition of a homosexual?

Answer: A person who loves to widen the circle of his friends!

[Harmonica]

As Maka points out the “experts” have been telling us for years all about how bad the US “twin deficits” are, and what effects it will have on the dollar.  Last year they are all patting themselves on the back as the dollar weakened.  This year they seem to be pretty quite as the dollar comes charging back.

One thing you have to keep in mind relativity – the US may not be a storybook case for strengthening one’s  currency – but who else is doing a better job?  No one right now, and that why the US dollar has stepped back up to the plate. 

As you and Mr. Doge, and many other “experts” point out these deficient are most likely not sustainable long term.  The problem here is defining what is “long term” -  again we have already been hearing the same thing for years now.  Who knows next week the house of cards could come tumbling down.  This is after all a speculative market and things have been know to change quickly.  Still the biggest problem is that no other currency has what it takes to step in the ring and go toe-to-toe with the big bad buck.

Dollar just sent several cases of beer to both Maka and TokyoT!

Cheers!

[TRIPxCORE]

I already have my money where my mouth is.

We shall see.

[TokyoT]

I already have my money where my mouth is.

We shall see.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

And here I thought all your money was tied up in spots betting?

[barryofthailand]

Maka,

As long as the price of crude goes up, which is expected to continue thru the end of the year the Thai baht will continue to slide. With the combination of a stronger dollar i think we will be on a roll.

[TRIPxCORE]

I already have my money where my mouth is.

We shall see.

And here I thought all your money was tied up in spots betting?

Not all of it.

[Harmonica]

Harmonica, thanks.  There was a big rally yesterday and as of lunch time today its sitting on 690!  I have a couple of really good tips and if your willing to play you can pm me.

You're welcome, dude. Yeah I am well aware of that big rally and am also quite pleased that you are making money and doing well!

I'm staying out for now.

Dude, you naughty boy -- trying to get me to enter SET Index exactly @ a TOP! ..... see the red arrow in the chart below. Also note the red arrow in the lower window showing the big volume bars towards the right hand side of the chart -- all but one of those large bars are "downside" volume. Just something for you to take note of, not get discouraged, amigo. Battle lost, but you'll win the war.

Lucky for me, I declined your invitation, don't you think?

But, don't let this bother you -- your invitations are always welcome and so is your SET insight, right or wrong. We do our work and we call it -- if wrong, so what! At least we called it!

I hope you didn't get caught in the mini-crash?

But, again just to cheer you up, don't panic -- there is a wave C rally coming up in the near future, just as soon as this current downleg (wave ends.

So don't fret.

But next time try to pay attention to the Baht -- SET will not happily go against her distress calls. They are loving twins and I would not bet against them!

[Harmonica]

dude,

I just got yesterday's Thai Baht closing numbers.

As I said in the previous post we are close to a SET rally and I can now add that this will be a good one because her twin, Miss Baht is also looking to strengthen and is right on the cusp of slapping the dollar (only a small slap though, worth only perhaps a couple weeks or so.

Stay tuned. Will post the outperforming sector on Monday.

Cannot post stocks -- want to renew my visa next year.

[george]

Arriving at an optimum exchange rate is no easy task

Stability is a hot topic as the baht weakens and the current-account deficit widens.

BANGKOK: -- Speculation on a weak baht led to a debacle eight years ago, forcing the government to replace its fixed exchange-rate regime with a managed floated on July 2, 1997. The debate of exchange-rate regimes has raged ever since.

The current weakening of the baht and the Bank of Thailand’s low interest-rate policy are considered part of the central bank’s effort to boost exports. But surging oil prices make the weak-baht policy look unreasonable because imported oil and capital goods become dearer – widening the trade and current-account deficits.

Arriving at an ideal rate is not easy. Teerana Bhongmakapat, an economist at Chulalongkorn University, says the baht at around 40 a dollar is too weak and the central bank has distorted its value in a bid to boost exports.

He called for a more flexible exchange rate or higher volatility to encourage the private sector to learn to cope with volatility in world financial and exchange-rate markets. The weaker baht will only help low-end exports, which in the long run cannot compete in the world market, he said.

His views differ from Virabongsa Ramangkura, an economist who prefers a weak and stable baht. However, the general consensus among economists is that the central bank should focus on stability rather than boosting growth.

Virabongsa recently assailed the Bank of Thailand for its policy of keeping interest rates low, which could encourage an outflow of capital and threaten economic stability. On the other hand, higher interest rates mean a stronger baht.

There are many factors contributing to the baht’s recent movement. It has also partly been pulled down by investors’ concerns about the mounting current-account deficit – US$4.7 billion (Bt194 billion) in the first five months.

If the US further ups its short-term interest rates rapidly, it would make the baht weaker on the condition that Thailand does not shadow the Fed and raise its own rates. However, if China compromises in the near future by revaluing the yuan, the baht could gain against the dollar.

Economists recently intensified their campaign for stability, urging the government to be careful with its mega-projects, which they say will continue adding to the current-account deficit – and could also boost inflation.

Indeed, the weakening of fundamentals may invite another round of baht speculation and high volatility. Fortunately the managed-float exchange regime reduces the likelihood that investors will try to speculate on the baht.

-- The Nation 2005-07-02

[Diggerbasher]

I notice the dollar reserves are falling.Is the old Bank of Thailand buying a few Baht?

[Harmonica]

Those who were here and witnessed the mini-battles of $ versus Yen around the 107, 108 and the big 109 level will be pleased to know that $ has roundhouse kicked Yen above the 111 level!

Baht @ 41.43

But check out where she (Thai Baht) is currently at -- right at a double whammy resistance level comprised of previous barriers and the staggering weight of the 200-week moving average, looking down at $ trying to push Baht thru' this troublesome zone.

The green line is the 200-week MA and the dotted red line is a strong historical resistance.

Will this tough resistance zone cause Baht to strengthen?

What do you fellas think will happen?

[Bilko]

Harmonica, what can you see the Baht / Dollar rate being by the end of the year?

45?

48?

[Harmonica]

Harmonica, what can you see the Baht / Dollar rate being by the end of the year?

45?

48?

Will answer this question within the next few weeks!

[Harmonica]

Harmonica, thanks.  There was a big rally yesterday and as of lunch time today its sitting on 690!  I have a couple of really good tips and if your willing to play you can pm me.

You're welcome, dude. Yeah I am well aware of that big rally and am also quite pleased that you are making money and doing well!

I'm staying out for now.

Dude, you naughty boy -- trying to get me to enter SET Index exactly @ a TOP! ..... see the red arrow in the chart below. Also note the red arrow in the lower window showing the big volume bars towards the right hand side of the chart -- all but one of those large bars are "downside" volume. Just something for you to take note of, not get discouraged, amigo. Battle lost, but you'll win the war.

Lucky for me, I declined your invitation, don't you think?

But, don't let this bother you -- your invitations are always welcome and so is your SET insight, right or wrong. We do our work and we call it -- if wrong, so what! At least we called it!

I hope you didn't get caught in the mini-crash?

But, again just to cheer you up, don't panic -- there is a wave C rally coming up in the near future, just as soon as this current downleg (wave ends.

So don't fret.

But next time try to pay attention to the Baht -- SET will not happily go against her distress calls. They are loving twins and I would not bet against them!

And now with today's further losses, SET has now given up ALL the gains of the previous rally.

[MikeWill]

And now with today's further losses, SET has now given up ALL the gains of the previous rally.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Harmonica, do you think it will continue to deteriorate further together with Thai Baht?

What levels should we anticipate in the near term?

The Baht today crossed the 41.50 level and currently is @ 41.53.

The Yen briefly passed the 112 level and currently is @ 111.73.

P.S. The above data is from Bloomberg TV, which BTW gets its forex info from http://fxcm.com/

[george]

Love your knowledge, love your insights.

Is the topic title misleading maybe? Should we open a new thread?

Just my 2 baht.

[~G~]

Harmonica, do you think it will continue to deteriorate further together with Thai Baht?

What levels should we anticipate in the near term?

The Baht today crossed the 41.50 level and currently is @ 41.53.

The Yen briefly passed the 112 level and currently is @ 111.73.

P.S. The above data is from Bloomberg TV, which BTW gets its forex info from http://fxcm.com/

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Harmonica, if you do check your [surprisingly reliable] cristal ball, where do you see the Euro standing at the end of the year?

[Harmonica]

Harmonica, do you think it will continue to deteriorate further together with Thai Baht?

What levels should we anticipate in the near term?

The Baht today crossed the 41.50 level and currently is @ 41.53.

The Yen briefly passed the 112 level and currently is @ 111.73.

P.S. The above data is from Bloomberg TV, which BTW gets its forex info from http://fxcm.com/

Harmonica, if you do check your [surprisingly reliable] cristal ball, where do you see the Euro standing at the end of the year?

G, thanks but I can assure you its no crystal ball! Please refer to bilko's question, a few posts up and give me a little time to respond.

Why do I not want to make a statement at this current time?

Because it is downright dangerous and it is so for several technical reasons. I have mentioned to dude that SET ought to rally in a wave C pattern which, if true would imply that the Thai Baht would strengthen simultaneously.

However there is some very odd stuff going on w.r.t. the Dollar Index's momentum on the daily chart and it also shows on the Dollar/Baht and Dollar/Yen charts. It has given me a serious headache and over the last few days, each time I think I've figured it out, it becomes evanescent and I fall back into "I-don't-got-it just-yet" syndrome!

To add to my discomfort, Robert Prechter is calling for, I believe an immediate dive into wave 3 worldwide. I am of the opinion that we must rally first, both in the US markets and in the Thai SET Index. So my work is in stark disagreement with his. But I never dismiss Robert's analysis casually.

If I disagree I always go with my own, but this time I've been on vacation in Phuket and I'm still sluggish.

That's why I'm delaying my response.

OK, amigo?

My current state of mind is summed up quite well by Van Morrison:

Out on the highways and the by-ways all alone

I’m still searching for, searching for my home

Up in the morning, up in the morning out on the road

And my head is aching and my hands are cold

And I’m looking for the silver lining, silver lining in the clouds

And I’m searching for and

I’m searching for the philosophers stone

[Harmonica]

And now with today's further losses, SET has now given up ALL the gains of the previous rally.

Harmonica, do you think it will continue to deteriorate further together with Thai Baht?

What levels should we anticipate in the near term?

The Baht today crossed the 41.50 level and currently is @ 41.53.

The Yen briefly passed the 112 level and currently is @ 111.73.

P.S. The above data is from Bloomberg TV, which BTW gets its forex info from http://fxcm.com/

Condo, you've just made me a happy person -- Yen going above 112 intraday? I missed all the action as I had errands to run. Thanks for that.

Kindly read my response to bilko and G -- I'm going to work on it over the next few days and see if I can crack the code. Hang in there!

[Harmonica]

Love your knowledge, love your insights.

Is the topic title misleading maybe? Should we open a new thread?

Just my 2 baht.

George, the topic starter, "thedude" is a SET Index (and stocks therein) player. I like his style, his ideas and his participation. His originating post was right on the money in that it demonstrated how bigwigs can and easily do mislead us -- and they do this time and again.

I love the thread as-is, but you're the boss. Its entirely upto you. I'll be in it regardless, as it is so pertinent to us fellas who live in the Land of Smiles.

Perhaps others here will voice their opinions? I've said mine.

All the best to all participants here.

[george]

I'll leave it to you to desire. Keep up the good discussion.

What about the strange rumors around that the Thai Baht could rise to 100 to the dollar within 6 months. Just &lt;deleted&gt;, or?

[kreon]

I'll leave it to you to desire. Keep up the good discussion.

What about the strange rumors around that the Thai Baht could rise to 100 to the dollar within 6 months. Just &lt;deleted&gt;, or?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

well it could happen, we just don't when, but it will be sooner rather than later.

last time it went from 25 to 60 if i remember correctly, the thai economy is getting weaker as the oil crises is making exports and cost of living more expensive, property market is starting to get overheated, corruption is rife, banks are over extended with bad loans, tourism is down, european and us economy's are going down the tube, all the fundamentals are there, especially more so as china is to start to devalue the yuan.

i predict another crash ala 1997 and then play will the set again, far too overpriced for my liking today.

[jrincon17]

I'll leave it to you to desire. Keep up the good discussion.

What about the strange rumors around that the Thai Baht could rise to 100 to the dollar within 6 months. Just &lt;deleted&gt;, or?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

well it could happen, we just don't when, but it will be sooner rather than later.

last time it went from 25 to 60 if i remember correctly, the thai economy is getting weaker as the oil crises is making exports and cost of living more expensive, property market is starting to get overheated, corruption is rife, banks are over extended with bad loans, tourism is down, european and us economy's are going down the tube, all the fundamentals are there, especially more so as china is to start to devalue the yuan.

i predict another crash ala 1997 and then play will the set again, far too overpriced for my liking today.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The american way is not going to stop . We spend no matter what , we go into debt no matter what . What we want we get no matter the consequences. Thats just the way we are . The 911 incident, people thought the reatil would just crash , but it just kept plugging along . Its all about ourselves and after most people just dont care .

[Harmonica]

I'll leave it to you to desire. Keep up the good discussion.

What about the strange rumors around that the Thai Baht could rise to 100 to the dollar within 6 months. Just &lt;deleted&gt;, or?

Strange rumors that the Thai Baht will rise to 100 to the Dollar in 6 months ?

Agree with you, George! Its &lt;deleted&gt;! That I have no trouble saying!

Positive spin reverses, things get negative and people exacerbate it further by extrapolating to infinity.

As far as I'm concerned I am taking this one rally and correction at a time -- this seems to be a more pragmatic approach. To get to 100 we've got to cross 50 first, which itself is a staggering horizon and should not be minimized.

Right now I am looking at the fact that we are already at tough resistances for the Dollar. But just because we are at a barrier does not necessarily mean that the advance of the Dollar will fail. During a motive wave, barriers get taken out left and right and especially when a new uptrend has been inititated; the winds of change just blast the topography into altered states and even the trees look different.

Worldwide we are at a historic topping process in stocks, commodities, metals, social mood, well-being, etc. Twenty years into the future and people will read Thaivisa and wish they had been around to participate in these discussions -- for History is truly being made, even as we speak!

Just happy to be a part of it, that's all!

[Harmonica]

I'll leave it to you to desire. Keep up the good discussion.

What about the strange rumors around that the Thai Baht could rise to 100 to the dollar within 6 months. Just &lt;deleted&gt;, or?

well it could happen, we just don't when, but it will be sooner rather than later.

last time it went from 25 to 60 if i remember correctly, the thai economy is getting weaker as the oil crises is making exports and cost of living more expensive, property market is starting to get overheated, corruption is rife, banks are over extended with bad loans, tourism is down, european and us economy's are going down the tube, all the fundamentals are there, especially more so as china is to start to devalue the yuan.

i predict another crash ala 1997 and then play will the set again, far too overpriced for my liking today.

Always pleased to see my buddy, kreon.

Baht reached a High of 56.50 and a Closing High of 55.5 on January 12th, 1998.

Good, solid points raised by kreon -- I'm expecting the same and agree that the next SET bottom will be OUR "gates of Paradise" for it will be the time to convert sidelined CASH into stocks and HOLD!

But, like I said before, one step at a time and we then have the ability to turn on a dime if something unforeseen occurs and proves we are likely wrong. A backup plan, so to speak.

[Harmonica]

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/currencie...currencies.html

For those who desire instant Thai Baht, Japanese Yen and other regional currency action, check out the link above, courtesy of Bloomberg. They say it gets updated every 15 mins., but I have found it to be much more frequent than that. It is my homepage currently.

Maka's Universal Currency link is also outstanding and gives instant, real-time currency quotes. But the Bloomberg page gives you ALL the currencies at a glance @ reasonably close to real-time view.

And where is Miss Baht now?

41.717