Stronger Baht/usd

[Maka]

OK

Harmonica

Its the future....and this thread is on the back burner.

Im still interested though....Since Ive got USD that I need to turn to Baht

The question is WHEN?

So whats up?

Anything exciting?

Thanks

[peter991]

US dollar will drop: experts

BLOOMBERG

Tuesday, May 17, 2005

The US dollar's rally to a six-month high against the euro will end as demand for US assets from foreign investors wanes, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc said in a research report dated May 12. The firm advised increasing bets the US currency will drop versus the yen.

The US dollar last week rallied for a third week versus the euro and had the biggest weekly gain against the yen in more than four months as US reports showed a narrower trade deficit and greater than expected retail sales.

"Data flow has turned more dollar-supportive, yet we believe the dollar will ultimately depreciate further as a result of a weak capital flow picture,'' James McCormick, the firm's London-based head of global currency research, said in a report yesterday.

Investor appetite for US corporate bonds and stocks will probably decline, McCormick said. Standard & Poor's cut the credit rating of the two-largest US automakers, Ford Motor Co and General Motors Corp, to junk-bond status on May 5. "On the capital-flow front, we believe that the picture is unlikely to remain supportive," he said.

Lehman, the fifth-largest US securities firm, expects the US dollar to decline to US$1.40 per euro and 90 yen by year-end.

In Asia, expectations are that Chinese policy makers will let their currency trade more freely and this will benefit other Asian currencies, McCormick said. China has pegged the yuan at about 8.3 per US dollar for a decade.

"The long-awaited yuan revaluation continues to frustrate even the most patient investor, but our advice is to stick with the bullish Asian currency view," McCormick wrote. "Once the regime change finally occurs, we believe this will set the stage for wide-ranging foreign-exchange appreciation in Asia."

Lehman said that investors should maintain bets on an advance in the

currencies of Thailand, Taiwan, Singapore and South Korea versus the US

dollar and the euro.

[Harmonica]

OK

Harmonica

Its the future....and this thread is on the back burner.

Im still interested though....Since Ive got USD that I need to turn to Baht

The question is WHEN?

So whats up?

Anything exciting?

Thanks

Check your PM box, Maka. As promised, here is an evaluation of the what has been happening with the Baht -- refer to the very basic chart below:

Remember the complaints about how the Baht was just not moving and not going anywhere during April-May? It was putting people to sleep as it seemed to bounce up/down between 39.35 & 39.8.

Look at the chart and it should be clear what transpired.

The dark blue parallel lines show the consolidation pattern in which the Baht was ensconced for about 1 month. Consolidations are periods of recharging & strenghtening -- usually just below a level where considerable opposing forces reside. The opposing force in this case is the 200-day moving average (green line) which sits just above the pattern and where heavy Institutiion & foreign selling would be expected.

This pattern was missed by the Tech guru (and ALL experts here) who writes the Bangkok Post Monday's stockmarket article. He missed it completely and consequently many, many Thais got into the SET Index and it crashed badly as the Baht broke out of the pattern and rammed the 200-day broadside and in broad daylight, I might add. No police were on the scene, only ambulances & mia nois. Wives are looking on in dismay as husbands play with the milk money.

As for me? I don't miss stuff like this; what was I doing during this time? Vacationing of course & continuing to remain on the right side of the market!

God, do I love it so!

[Maka]

Thanks Harmonica

So it appears that the baht is in a position for some open field running now ?

Next resistance at 40.55?

I think you said way back .."dont expect 50 'till end of summer at the soonest"

So fter this latest "consolidation" I see how slowly these currencies can move.

I'll keep an eye on it.

[Harmonica]

Thanks Harmonica

So it appears that the baht is in a position for some open field running now ?

Next resistance at 40.55?

I think  you said way back .."dont expect 50 'till end of summer at the soonest"

So fter this latest "consolidation" I see how slowly these currencies can move.

I'll keep an eye  on it.

40 Baht to 1 Dollar

She just crossed the 40 mark!

First time above 40 since November 2004!

I've stood many nights outside her window at night to struggle with my instincts in the pale lamplight!

[Harmonica]

Thanks Harmonica

I think  you said way back .."dont expect 50 'till end of summer at the soonest"

So fter this latest "consolidation" I see how slowly these currencies can move.

I'll keep an eye  on it.

Maka,

Greetings! Here are my stements in this thread on the subject of:

Where will the BAHT go & when?

March 26th: Even great men were born little children! Baby steps, amigo! Remember that Baht has been thrashing $ for a long time. These things take time. Two months is not even adequate foreplay time! Currencies take time to get underway and then they just keep going & going & going ...... get the idea?

50 Baht to the dollar -- before end of 2006 !

-----------

April 4th: 50 .... give it time; its not going to happen in a day, week or month.

----------------------

April 8: IMHO it will surpass 42 in the second half of this year (or earlier if we're lucky) and after it does so, it will thereafter leave it in the dust as it hurtles towards 50.

OK? so to recap, I'm not expecting 50 until sometime in 2006 .

And on a different note, it has not escaped me that while you are enjoying that beautiful & bountiful weather in the "true" paradise, aka Hawai (Maui), temps in this fake paradise, aka Chiang Mai are consistently above the 100 degree mark with heat index crossing 110 regularly and the UV index @ 10+ (extreme danger zone) every single day for months on end! Don't be in such a hurry to get back!

Best regards

[chownah]

Thanks Harmonica

I think  you said way back .."dont expect 50 'till end of summer at the soonest"

So fter this latest "consolidation" I see how slowly these currencies can move.

I'll keep an eye  on it.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Maka,

Greetings! Here are my stements in this thread on the subject of:

Where will the BAHT go & when?

March 26th: Even great men were born little children! Baby steps, amigo! Remember that Baht has been thrashing $ for a long time. These things take time. Two months is not even adequate foreplay time! Currencies take time to get underway and then they just keep going & going & going ...... get the idea?

50 Baht to the dollar -- before end of 2006 !

-----------

April 4th: 50 .... give it time; its not going to happen in a day, week or month.

----------------------

April 8: IMHO it will surpass 42 in the second half of this year (or earlier if we're lucky) and after it does so, it will thereafter leave it in the dust as it hurtles towards 50.

OK? so to recap, I'm not expecting 50 until sometime in 2006 .

And on a different note, it has not escaped me that while you are enjoying that beautiful & bountiful weather in the "true" paradise, aka Hawai (Maui), temps in this fake paradise, aka Chiang Mai are consistently above the 100 degree mark with heat index crossing 110 regularly and the UV index @ 10+ (extreme danger zone) every single day for months on end! Don't be in such a hurry to get back!

Best regards

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I have submitted a proof of Level 10 in the Take a Break Fellas topic and I'd like you to determine if I get full credit....or not.

[MikeWill]

Thanks Harmonica,

Glad to hear from you again! I was afraid that you decided to leave the board altogether.

It seems that without your presence here, this and similar topics will lose much needed "steam" you provide.

Now, that THB is nearly 40, and the Yen is also close to 107,5 what is the outlook for the short time (this and next week) - surpass or retreat below the level of 40 ???

[thedude]

harmonica, your break was surprisingly well timed.

so i guess 42 is the target for June, or sooner.

btw what do you think of Lehman's wild postulations as posted by peter991, specifically, the loss of investor appetite for US stocks and bonds and the "unsupportive" outlook on the captial-flow front?

thanks.

[Harmonica]

Thanks Harmonica,

Glad to hear from you again! I was afraid that you decided to leave the board altogether.

It seems that without your presence here, this and similar topics will lose much needed "steam" you provide.

Now, that THB is nearly 40, and the Yen is also close to 107,5 what is the outlook for the short time (this and next week) - surpass or retreat below the level of 40 ???

Condo, the high was 40.02 but it did not close there. Its been closing around 39.88 or 39.89. I would like to see a firm close above 40 first. Then I'll be happier.

If it goes below 39.80 we could have a correction which would mean a SET Index rally. Let's see tomorrow.

Closing under 39.80 = bad

Closing above 40.05 = good.

[Harmonica]

harmonica, your break was surprisingly well timed.

so i guess 42 is the target for June, or sooner. 

btw what do you think of Lehman's wild postulations as posted  by peter991, specifically, the loss of investor appetite for US stocks and bonds and the "unsupportive" outlook on the captial-flow front?

thanks.

Lehman's wild postulations? What do I think?

The US Dollar has been drilling these experts left and right since December 30th and he hasn't even come once yet! If he does come, we might have a correction and then the slaying of experts will resume thereafter.

As for 42, I'd rather wait for a stable 40 first, then think about 42.

At 40, I can then say, "hey, we're only 10 baht away from 50!"

[Maka]

Maka,

Greetings! Here are my stements in this thread on the subject of:

Where will the BAHT go & when?

March 26th: Even great men were born little children! Baby steps, amigo! Remember that Baht has been thrashing $ for a long time. These things take time. Two months is not even adequate foreplay time! Currencies take time to get underway and then they just keep going & going & going ...... get the idea?

50 Baht to the dollar -- before end of 2006 !

-----------

April 4th: 50 .... give it time; its not going to happen in a day, week or month.

----------------------

April 8: IMHO it will surpass 42 in the second half of this year (or earlier if we're lucky) and after it does so, it will thereafter leave it in the dust as it hurtles towards 50.

OK? so to recap, I'm not expecting 50 until sometime in 2006 .

And on a different note, it has not escaped me that while you are enjoying that beautiful & bountiful weather in the "true" paradise, aka Hawai (Maui), temps in this fake paradise, aka Chiang Mai are consistently above the 100 degree mark with heat index crossing 110 regularly and the UV index @ 10+ (extreme danger zone) every single day for months on end! Don't be in such a hurry to get back!

Best regards

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

No wonder I rmemeber you saying something about 50 being aways off.......you said it over and over again several times

Well right now it is at

1 US Dollar = 39.94100 Thai Baht

Maximum price = 39.94800 / 40.05500

So shes still trying.

Thanks for the reply ...and I'll keep watcing it ,.... from here as you suggest.

Thanks

[Maka]

Well shes a tryin'

1.00 USD

United States Dollars = 40.0044 THB

1.00 USD

United States Dollars = 40.0024 THB

1.00 USD

United States Dollars = 40.0053 THB

[Harmonica]

Well shes a tryin'

1.00 USD

United States Dollars  =  40.0044 THB

1.00 USD

United States Dollars  =  40.0024 THB

1.00 USD

United States Dollars  =  40.0053 THB

Maka,

Baht closed @ 40.20 today.

The last few days its been 40.01, 40.02, 40.03 and 40.05 intraday. She then made up her mind.

Keep the game alive -- it seems that she is now responding to your posts rhythmically.

[Maka]

1.00 USD

United States Dollars = 40.1353 THB

1.00 USD

United States Dollars = 40.1843 THB

Shes moved up to a little stoger position

[chippendalesam]

I just now saw on the Bangkok Bank FX site the baht was 40.39 to the US dollar. My question to you who follow this closely is, why? Why this uptick the last 5 days? Any opinion would be appreciated.

[quiggs]

China's b*tch? I realize there is an anti American sentiment in this post, but, please really. Chinese GDP is almost at 4 trillion...except, once you adjust their currency due to the fact that it is artificially pegged to the US dollar "their b*tches money":-)they are under 3 trillion.

Exactly what year do you see them overtaking Japan, Germany, and England, let alone the 10-11 trillion US economy that continues to grow? FOrget that, when will this economic superpower float it's own currency on the world market? I am happy for the chinese, and their prosperity, they deserve it. Just trying to keep things in perspective.

supposing Roachie is on the money this time. while Bush and Condi are out playing superheroes and freeing the world from itself, america continues to spend itself into such a level of debt that massive and continued devaluation is unavoidable.  the assumption then is that cheaper american products re-invigorate exports and the balance is regained.  but now that american productivity gains are low and labour is far more competitive from the Asian giants, will this correction actually occur?  america will never be able win a price war, because its workers drive SUVs and live in large houses with mortgages. 

not only that, but on the higher end of the value chain, you find the americans being challenged by a brave new Europe, whose top companies in aviation, energy, telecommunications, transportation, pharmaceuticals etc already give the americans a good run for the money.  front-end commercial application of technology is no longer dominated by american companies.  its no wonder that people see China as the new emerging superpower, not only do the Chinese have massive production capacity and the ability to absorb technologies fast, they have a really massive and comparatively debt free consumer market.  will america stand idly by, waiting to become China's b*tch?

and so the only question left is this - what happens when you leave an angry child with lots and lots of weapons?  at first its wars are fought on 'moral' grounds, but what if it just gives up pretending and turns into a giant bully, extortionist, angry that its losing its right to have the world feed its rampant and insatiable appetite for consumption?  its scary but maybe some of those fundamentalists were right in identifying america as the real terrorists.  okay maybe they have already been bullying the smaller and more helpless fringe nations, but what if they were to turn against the mainstream of the global community?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

[quiggs]

"Throw in an uneducated illiterate society with its levels of crime and violence and it will be something to see what happens when its standard of living and materialism and consumerism ends overnight."

This would be funny if you didn't actually believe it. I am under no illusion that the US way of life is the "best" , but, to throw these stereotypes around as fact is nothing but ignorance. Why such hostility?

America feeds the world Big Macs and junk food for its corporate profits.Of the 22 richest countries America is last in percentage of foreign aid to the worlds hungry.America is a stingy bully.

Australia,Canada,Argentina,etc., all produce inexpensive beef for the world.Every country grows wheat and rice and raises chickens and pigs.

America only has high technology Mcdonalds as its only internationally recognized exports.

The DVD recorders,flat screen TVs,camcorders,and other high tech goodies comes from Japan and Korea not the US.China has the factories that produces almost everything else.

The world will really miss Big Macs as nobody but American industry can fry up a burger.

A Big Mac service economy that doesn't produce anything except movies and junk food is a false one.

Its all a scam and its dollar IOU's are all cons.

Throw in an uneducated illiterate society with its levels of crime and violence and it will be something to see what happens when its standard of living and materialism and consumerism ends overnight.

But the world will really feel sorry for the Paris Hiltons and Michael Jacksons being so poor and desperate.heehee!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

[Maka]

1.00 USD

United States Dollars = 40.3225 THB

1.00 USD

United States Dollars = 40.3590 THB

And she gets stronger yet

[maerim]

"Throw in an uneducated illiterate society with its levels of crime and violence and it will be something to see what happens when its standard of living and materialism and consumerism ends overnight."

You are talking about the USA I assume.

[Maka]

1.00 USD

United States Dollars = 40.4385 THB

1.00 USD

United States Dollars = 40.4489 THB

Still gaining

[PeaceBlondie]

I just sent the chart of baht/USD to a friend of mine who analyzes financial curves, and asked him where the graph seems to be going. He guessed that it will top out at 41.5 sometime later this year. So, today I started taking out dollars from my US account, in the form of baht at the ATM, only to supplement my monthly income within Thailand. I'm not going to amass 400,000 or 800,000 baht in a Thai bank before mid-2007, and then only if I have to to get a retirmement visa.

Does that seem reasonable, to allow my pension dollars to stay in my US bank accounts, even if some of it is in CD's earning lousy interest around 3.7%? I don't want to put any more into the stock market than what's already there (over 50% of my net worth).

[Maka]

I just sent the chart of baht/USD to a friend of mine who analyzes financial curves, and asked him where the graph seems to be going.  He guessed that it will top out at 41.5 sometime later this year.  So, today I started taking out dollars from my US account, in the form of baht at the ATM, only to supplement my monthly income within Thailand.  I'm not going to amass 400,000 or 800,000 baht in a Thai bank before mid-2007, and then only if I have to to get a retirmement visa. 

Does that seem reasonable, to allow my pension dollars to stay in my US bank accounts, even if some of it is in CD's earning lousy interest around 3.7%?  I don't want to put any more into the stock market than what's already there (over 50% of my net worth).

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Im inclined to think 41.5 is pessimistic. Over 45.0 by years end is my guess. In any case as long as that # is rising, you want to keep your $ as $ and only convert to baht as you need them. If the trend reverses and the #s start going back down, then is the time to convert your $ to baht (assuming you are planning to need baht into the foreseeable future)

So... right now the value of the dollar seems to be strengthening against the baht , if you believe this trend will continue you would be wanting to trade baht for USD. Then when it goes the other way you trade your USD back for baht.

Harmonica has a much better handel than I do on what is happening here.

[Maka]

Still going strong

1.00 USD

United States Dollars = 40.6251 THB

1.00 USD

United States Dollars = 40.6198 THB

[Maka]

And today?

Stronger still:

1.00 USD

United States Dollars = 40.8060 THB

1.00 USD

United States Dollars = 40.8116 THB

[Harmonica]

When you've got a good woman who does everything to make your home blossom and bloom, why not be the best hunter you can be by bringing tons of "wherewithal" home?

Even my best friends don't know that my job is "turning Lead into Gold!"

But she does ... and ... loves it.

Just changed some dollars @ 40.61 yesterday. Not much but it was a sweet feeling to watch profits as they grow in your sleep -- everyday!

God, do I love Thailand so!

----------------

Below is the US Dollar's ex-mistress as she arrives at the Wall of Discontent -- this is the 3rd time. Will the Dollar cause her to blast thru' it?

Hehehehehe ....

[george]

PM defends instruction for supervision of baht

BANGKOK: -- Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra yesterday defended his instruction for his deputy Somkid Jatusripitak to closely monitor the local currency movement, saying the move did not signal the country’s economy is in trouble.

“I have made the instruction just because I want Dr. Somkid to supervise the baht to ensure it reflects the real value. I have never given any signal of the economic trouble.

“Our policy never focuses on the strengthening or weakening of the baht. Actually, it stresses the baht move on its real value. That’s all.”

Asked to comment on the continued weakening of the baht for this moment, the premier said he was paying special attention to the economic affair because he did not want to see any damages.

He conceded the country was in deficit because of rising oil prices. The gross domestic product (GDP) growth would be lower than targeted and inflation rates would stay high.

“To address the problems, we need to supervise the economic system as a whole and to restore confidence among investors.”

Asked whether he felt hard-pressed by the ongoing economic woes, he said: “it is usual because we are hired to solve the problems, not to take a rest.”

Mr. Thaksin pledged he would try to regain the economic growth by the end of this year although it would very tough.

On the Finance Ministry’s forecast the GDP would grow less than 5% this year, he said the government would have to work hard to maintain the economic growth

--TNA 2005-06-03

[Harmonica]

PM defends instruction for supervision of baht 

BANGKOK: -- Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra yesterday defended his instruction for his deputy Somkid Jatusripitak to closely monitor the local currency movement, saying the move did not signal the country’s economy is in trouble.

“I have made the instruction just because I want Dr. Somkid to supervise the baht to ensure it reflects the real value. I have never given any signal of the economic trouble.

“Our policy never focuses on the strengthening or weakening of the baht. Actually, it stresses the baht move on its real value. That’s all.”

Asked to comment on the continued weakening of the baht for this moment, the premier said he was paying special attention to the economic affair because he did not want to see any damages.

He conceded the country was in deficit because of rising oil prices. The gross domestic product (GDP) growth would be lower than targeted and inflation rates would stay high.

“To address the problems, we need to supervise the economic system as a whole and to restore confidence among investors.”

Asked whether he felt hard-pressed by the ongoing economic woes, he said: “it is usual because we are hired to solve the problems, not to take a rest.”

Mr. Thaksin pledged he would try to regain the economic growth by the end of this year although it would very tough.

On the Finance Ministry’s forecast the GDP would grow less than 5% this year, he said the government would have to work hard to maintain the economic growth

--TNA 2005-06-03

With no disrespect intended -- actually, many thanks to the Sheriff for the great job done w.r.t. the Thai Stockmarket -- best regards to you, Mr. T.

But ......

Thailand is in trouble -- there is no denying this. Evidence can be readily found all over the country. No need for technical analysis or other esoteric forms of assessment.

The tsunami was NOT the cause -- it has only accelerated the current onslaught which, albeit in its infancy, will start to accelerate and hurtle southbound when and if certain conditions, which appear to be ripe at he moment -- come to fruition in the next few months.

One of these, and we might not have to wait much longer for this scenario to punch thru':

The Japanese Yen breaks 109 northbound. This will mean that the red trendline gets taken out. See chart below of the US$ versus Yen.

If this does occur, Mr. T .... even with your billions you will fail because the Japs will be pulling us southward.

No point in blaming the Baht -- she is powerless when faced with the trend of the Yen. She can only follow.

For your sake and that of Thailand, I hope I am wrong; for if not, this might no longer be the Land of Smiles for quite some time to come.

[george]

BOT chief satisfied with current baht movement

BANGKOK: -- Bank of Thailand (BOT)’s Governor M.R. Pridiyathorn Devakula yesterday voiced satisfaction with the ongoing baht movement, saying its value is appropriate under the current economic condition.

He conceded the central bank intervened in the baht movement to ensure its stability when the local currency had rapidly weakened in the past week.

The baht had now begun to stabilize and stayed at a suitable level under the current economic condition, he said

The local currency had depreciated against the dollar by around 2% and the euro by 5% from the end of April.

The weakening would contribute to an increase in exports to the European Union because exported products are cheaper. Unless the baht depreciated at all, he said, the exports to other destinations, except the United States, would be in trouble.

“We don’t want the baht to weaken too much since we still adopt the policy to stabilize the currency and allow it to move by market mechanism.

“We neither want the currency to strengthen too much because we have to supervise the import of products,” said BOT chief.

On the government’s decision to float diesel prices, he said, it was the right move as it could help conserve energy in a concrete manner.

M.R. Pridiyathorn shrugged off mounting concern on higher inflation rates, saying the central bank had already prepared to cope with the inflation.

--TNA 2005-06-09

[Harmonica]

BOT chief satisfied with current baht movement 

BANGKOK: --  Bank of Thailand (BOT)’s Governor M.R. Pridiyathorn Devakula yesterday voiced satisfaction with the ongoing baht movement, saying its value is appropriate under the current economic condition.

He conceded the central bank intervened in the baht movement to ensure its stability when the local currency had rapidly weakened in the past week.

The baht had now begun to stabilize and stayed at a suitable level under the current economic condition, he said

The local currency had depreciated against the dollar by around 2% and the euro by 5% from the end of April.

The weakening would contribute to an increase in exports to the European Union because exported products are cheaper. Unless the baht depreciated at all, he said, the exports to other destinations, except the United States, would be in trouble.

“We don’t want the baht to weaken too much since we still adopt the policy to stabilize the currency and allow it to move by market mechanism.

“We neither want the currency to strengthen too much because we have to supervise the import of products,” said BOT chief.

On the government’s decision to float diesel prices, he said, it was the right move as it could help conserve energy in a concrete manner.

M.R. Pridiyathorn shrugged off mounting concern on higher inflation rates, saying the central bank had already prepared to cope with the inflation.

--TNA 2005-06-09

As stated before, no disrespect intended -- only a review of antediluvian (seems like) times ... a man's got to know his own limitations and when he comes up against the abyss for the second time is there really any guarantee that he will get it right this time around (notwithstanding the different texture, poise & latent power of the current looming abyss)?

The 2 paragraphs below are excerpted from ...... http://64.233.183.104/search?q=cache:DGsLG6FXN-UJ:www.pacom.mil/publications/apeu02/02AsiaCrisis5f.doc+BOT+mistake+1997+currency+crisis&hl=en

Financial Crisis Arrives

Pressure started to build on the Bank of Thailand in December 1996 to devalue the baht. Revelations that several of the Thai finance companies were over-exposed to the foreign financed property glut triggered a speculative attack on the baht in early February 1997. By March Bangkok was facing the most serious financial crisis in Thai history. But the truly remarkable aspect of the Thai crisis was the poor response of the Bank of Thailand (BOT). The outcome for Thailand would have been much improved if the bank had simply ignored the crisis and done nothing more than letting the baht float.

In the first two weeks of May 1997, the BOT decided to switch its intervention to defend the baht from spot foreign exchange transactions to forward transactions, buying baht against dollars for value in three months. The BOT chose to ignore the implications for its balance sheet. The BOT was therefore massively exposing itself to the fate of its own currency. Speculators thereby effectively received a subsidy from the bank to take short positions in the baht. Thanks to the BOT, the baht then turned into a one-way bet for short sellers. It would have been practically impossible for the short sellers to accumulate such an enormous short position in the baht had it not been for the sales that the BOT made.

-------------------------

Best of luck to BOT Gov