Pad Leader Sondhi Limthongkul Shot

[canuckamuck]

I don't see feud as being the root of the red shirts riots. I see it more about Thaksin's frozen assets, and the fact that those court cases come up in a short time. Terror about losing his money is what prompted his push to the red shirt violence. I think the term civil war was never applicable, and if anything, with the red shirts ease at resorting to violence, it is a remote possibility. Thaksin lost most of the tacit support he enjoyed, and he'll never get that back. Checkmate.

I'll be right back, my boss wants to know why my post count is so low this hour...

There was no red shirts before Sondhi abused the nation with the yellow horde. How can you say the root is Thaksin's money. When did you notice there was a problem here? last week?

[kurtgruen]

Yes, Sonthi was Thaksin's friend, and so were half of his die hard opponents. No matter what triggered the change, they are enemies now.

Their commitment over the years cleared away any doubts about their sincere believe in their "new" cause.

I suppose the most telling thing about Thaksin is the

the shear number of people once very close to him,

that will try and move heaven and earth just to see

he never gains power again.

The most recent being Newin, like him or hate him, he's a shrewd operative for sure.

Why would he make such a sea change from Thaksin's camp, as so many others have?

Money deals come and go, what did Newin see that last meeting in Hong Kong that made him

cause such a HUGE sea change in Thailands politics, when he blew off Mr. T.

Those closest to the flame learn what makes it burn,

that proximity also makes them get burned all the easier,

and often learn and see more clearly what fuels the fire.

Thaksin always reminds of of some other power hungry leader (born on this day, some years ago ;-) , who eventually was driven to insanity, by his appetite for power. Very similar in many ways...so-called democratically elected....human rights violations and killings of innocent people, playing with the money crowd, while claiming socialistic values...

Hmmm...if he was in power, I wonder how long it would have taken him to come up with a "Final Solution" for all us Whities??? After all, we are the ones causing all the problems, aren't we??? It couldn't be the intelligent and superhuman leadership of Thailand, could it?

Time will tell, if we ever find out, who really tried to kill Khun Sondhi. Those who say, that he had many enemies, are right, but I think the assassination attempt was about power, not about getting even or acting on a grudge.

Was it someone paid by Thaksin? Who knows.

What I do believe is, that Thaksin is a very dangerous, power hungry and, in my opinion, insane individual.

[Pierrot]

The most recent being Newin, like him or hate him, he's a shrewd operative for sure.

Why would he make such a sea change from Thaksin's camp, as so many others have?

Money deals come and go, what did Newin see that last meeting in Hong Kong that made him

cause such a HUGE sea change in Thailands politics, when he blew off Mr. T.

Newin ? There was a Newin in Burma. Burma's recent history will make an interesting reading for anybody willing to follow Newin ....

Animatic's support for Newin,actually, to be honest, Democrat's support for Newin, really says a lot how desesparate they now are ....

[animatic]

I wouldn't go as far as insane.

He maybe evil, but he's not, at this time, certifiable.

But disturbed, unstable and amoral

and "very dangerous, power hungry": seem to fit.

[Thai at Heart]

13 pages and not one person wished him well or said they felt bad. i guess he was not very well respected or liked for that matter. i have not heard a single Thai person in the street express sorrow.

Probably because Sondhi is the most hated person in Thailand. If you thought that Elliot Carver (Tomorrow Never Dies) was the perfect villain but too evil to be real, think again.

It all started with Thaksin refusal to grant Sondhi a new TV license, probably because he sensed at that time that Sondhi was already too powerful for Thailand’s good. Unfortunately, the future will prove him right !

I too have heard this story from several Thai friends in Bangkok. It doesn't really matter whether I believe it or not, since I am not Thai, but the story has legs. According to the version I have heard, it wasn't to do with power, just purely money. Maleenont brought more cash.

[Plus]

Yes, Sonthi was Thaksin's friend, and so were half of his die hard opponents.No matter what triggered the change, they are enemies now.

Sorry, but when a personnal feud pushes a nation to the brink of civil war ... it matters !

Because it's what it is, a personnal feud ! People of all sides tried to use it to their personnal advantage, but at the end it's only a personnal feud, and for the good of Thailand, it has to stop !

When Sondhi was pushed off the air he started his "seminars" small, renting auditoriums at Thammasat. He didn't talk about the feud, he talked about corruption and it got people's attention. Soon he had to relocate to Lumpini park because so many people came to listen, and so many people came forward with information.

From that moment on the movement has lost all connection with "personal" feud, the movement had life on its own.

Don't try to dismiss it as people's push for personal advantage. It's lame.

That was the time when the red shirt movement was born, btw. It wasn't red at the time, of course, it was a bunch of government hired goons trying to disrupt Lumpini Park meetings. Reds have gone a long way since then, but the essense remains - trying to counteract genuine public uprising against corrupt politicians.

[Pierrot]

Yes, Sonthi was Thaksin's friend, and so were half of his die hard opponents.No matter what triggered the change, they are enemies now.

Sorry, but when a personnal feud pushes a nation to the brink of civil war ... it matters !

Because it's what it is, a personnal feud ! People of all sides tried to use it to their personnal advantage, but at the end it's only a personnal feud, and for the good of Thailand, it has to stop !

When Sondhi was pushed off the air he started his "seminars" small, renting auditoriums at Thammasat. He didn't talk about the feud, he talked about corruption and it got people's attention. Soon he had to relocate to Lumpini park because so many people came to listen, and so many people came forward with information.

From that moment on the movement has lost all connection with "personal" feud, the movement had life on its own.

Don't try to dismiss it as people's push for personal advantage. It's lame.

That was the time when the red shirt movement was born, btw. It wasn't red at the time, of course, it was a bunch of government hired goons trying to disrupt Lumpini Park meetings. Reds have gone a long way since then, but the essense remains - trying to counteract genuine public uprising against corrupt politicians.

What you're telling us is that Sondhi's was Thaksin "best" friend until Thaksin refused to grant him his TV license, and it was just a coincidence that it was at the same precise time that Sondhi realized Thaksin was an ugly, corrupted politician ?

You're a man of conviction, and I respect that, but "genuine public uprising against corrupt politicians" sorry, I don't buy it.

[sriracha john]

Most thais believe its Sae Daeng behind the attack and they may be right. As you say lots of other candidates too.

Certainly one of Thailand's more ... errrr.... colorful... uhmm... characters.

And one that has a penchant for automatic weapons....

"Sae Daeng" AKA Major-General Kattiya Sawasdiphol (from his website)

http://www.sae-dang.com/

[Kattiya:] Shooters of Sondhi's car believed to be in military

A high-profile military figure, Major-General Kattiya Sawasdiphol, believed that Sondhi’s shooters were military personnel who took the job on order, but could not complete the task because they had never worked with moving targets.

Major-General Kattiya, a well-known military figure, talked today (April 20) about the shooting on Mr. Sondhi Limtongkul, one of the core leaders of the PAD, that he personally believed that the shooters were someone in the military who took the task on order. However, due to being inexperienced and having never worked with moving targets before, they failed the task.

From the collected evidence, it was believed that there must have been more than 3 shooters at the incident scene using M-16, HK33, and M-79 guns, which had been specifically designed to assassinate people.

Furthermore, Major-General Kattiya also pointed out that after conducting the ambush, the shooters went back to Thewet Intersection, an area under military supervision.

In terms of the incentive leading to the shooting, Major-General Kattiya stated that it could have stemmed from the divergences partially brought upon the nation by the PAD protester group.

- ThaiNews / 2009-04-20

[Plus]

"genuine public uprising against corrupt politicians" sorry, I don't buy it.

There were probably hundreds if not thousands speakers on PAD stages all around the country. That was what made in genuine. That people from all walks of life overcome their prejudices and joined together in a fight against Thaksin and corruption.

Until that point Sondhi's crusade didn't carry much weight, true, but he simply was the right man in the right place and was able to provide his services to a snowballing movement.

The man has seen both highs and lows in four years since then. If you think he did all of this just because he was denied a license once, go ahead, Freud. Maybe it was sexual trauma in his childhood, that would conviniently explain everything.

[Thai at Heart]

"genuine public uprising against corrupt politicians" sorry, I don't buy it.

There were probably hundreds if not thousands speakers on PAD stages all around the country. That was what made in genuine. That people from all walks of life overcome their prejudices and joined together in a fight against Thaksin and corruption.

Until that point Sondhi's crusade didn't carry much weight, true, but he simply was the right man in the right place and was able to provide his services to a snowballing movement.

The man has seen both highs and lows in four years since then. If you think he did all of this just because he was denied a license once, go ahead, Freud. Maybe it was sexual trauma in his childhood, that would conviniently explain everything.

I think using western psychological analysis of this situation is a very clever diversionary tactic, when considering it from face keeping" Asian perspective more than suffices.

Interestingly, you believe that this is a fight against Thaksin AND corruption. Strewth, why aren't the yellows still out there then. I didn't see any noticeable reduction in corruption since they started or finished their protests. I look forward to the yellows protesting once the contracts for the new "logistics" projects are found to be as loaded as any before.

[Plus]

Obviously the movement grew and morphed over the four years, giving plenty of excuses to label it in any way you fancy.

According to Supalak from the Nation it is a movement for elitist and military order, that their goal has become clear with introduction of new politics.

Nevermind that new politics was a very late addition that didn't even catch on, certainly not with a rank and file protesters.

Even then - new politics was introduced to fight corrupt politicians, as an alternative election system. Go ahead, read their announcements - "we are fed up with money controlling politics, with politicians having to rely on business to campaign, and serving the business to repay their debts and ignoring the people, it's a vicious cycle that will never end on its own". That was the main idea, in my own words, not stripping villagers of the right to vote, as we were led to believe by "progressive" retards with a mission.

I didn't see any noticeable reduction in corruption since they started or finished their protests

Compare it to Thaksin years where new corruption scandals were breaking out every week. Or imagine how long it would take to sign off those bus projects in TRT years. Now they are dragging it for a year now, stripping all the fat off the budget in multiple steps.

Come to think of it - when did you last hear about any big scandal? Can it even compare to CTX billions?

[Thai at Heart]

Obviously the movement grew and morphed over the four years, giving plenty of excuses to label it in any way you fancy.

According to Supalak from the Nation it is a movement for elitist and military order, that their goal has become clear with introduction of new politics.

Nevermind that new politics was a very late addition that didn't even catch on, certainly not with a rank and file protesters.

Even then - new politics was introduced to fight corrupt politicians, as an alternative election system. Go ahead, read their announcements - "we are fed up with money controlling politics, with politicians having to rely on business to campaign, and serving the business to repay their debts and ignoring the people, it's a vicious cycle that will never end on its own". That was the main idea, in my own words, not stripping villagers of the right to vote, as we were led to believe by "progressive" retards with a mission.

I didn't see any noticeable reduction in corruption since they started or finished their protests

Compare it to Thaksin years where new corruption scandals were breaking out every week. Or imagine how long it would take to sign off those bus projects in TRT years. Now they are dragging it for a year now, stripping all the fat off the budget in multiple steps.

Come to think of it - when did you last hear about any big scandal? Can it even compare to CTX billions?

I don't know why you brought up the idea of voting changes. It was mooted for a while and thank god it went away for what it was, which was a completely morally wrong idea. Whether that would have any true long term effect on corruption is doubtful anyway.

The corruption was always there, some bigger, some smaller. I hope they strip the fat out, although, I doubt it. Bear in mind, that the CTX deal only became public because GE got involved. If CTX hadn't been taken over it would never have come out.

The day that any major public works or purchase in Thailand is free of fat, I think we will all be long gone.

Edited April 21, 2009 by Thai at Heart

[nitecm]

"genuine public uprising against corrupt politicians" sorry, I don't buy it.

There were probably hundreds if not thousands speakers on PAD stages all around the country. That was what made in genuine. That people from all walks of life overcome their prejudices and joined together in a fight against Thaksin and corruption.

Until that point Sondhi's crusade didn't carry much weight, true, but he simply was the right man in the right place and was able to provide his services to a snowballing movement.

The man has seen both highs and lows in four years since then. If you think he did all of this just because he was denied a license once, go ahead, Freud. Maybe it was sexual trauma in his childhood, that would conviniently explain everything.

I think using western psychological analysis of this situation is a very clever diversionary tactic, when considering it from face keeping" Asian perspective more than suffices.

Interestingly, you believe that this is a fight against Thaksin AND corruption. Strewth, why aren't the yellows still out there then. I didn't see any noticeable reduction in corruption since they started or finished their protests. I look forward to the yellows protesting once the contracts for the new "logistics" projects are found to be as loaded as any before.

Because it is my friend's turn

[canuckamuck]

Obviously the movement grew and morphed over the four years, giving plenty of excuses to label it in any way you fancy.

According to Supalak from the Nation it is a movement for elitist and military order, that their goal has become clear with introduction of new politics.

Nevermind that new politics was a very late addition that didn't even catch on, certainly not with a rank and file protesters.

Even then - new politics was introduced to fight corrupt politicians, as an alternative election system. Go ahead, read their announcements - "we are fed up with money controlling politics, with politicians having to rely on business to campaign, and serving the business to repay their debts and ignoring the people, it's a vicious cycle that will never end on its own". That was the main idea, in my own words, not stripping villagers of the right to vote, as we were led to believe by "progressive" retards with a mission.

I didn't see any noticeable reduction in corruption since they started or finished their protests

Compare it to Thaksin years where new corruption scandals were breaking out every week. Or imagine how long it would take to sign off those bus projects in TRT years. Now they are dragging it for a year now, stripping all the fat off the budget in multiple steps.

Come to think of it - when did you last hear about any big scandal? Can it even compare to CTX billions?

Yeah it's all good now eh? Unicorns and talking flowers again from Plus.

[Thai at Heart]

Obviously the movement grew and morphed over the four years, giving plenty of excuses to label it in any way you fancy.

According to Supalak from the Nation it is a movement for elitist and military order, that their goal has become clear with introduction of new politics.

Nevermind that new politics was a very late addition that didn't even catch on, certainly not with a rank and file protesters.

Even then - new politics was introduced to fight corrupt politicians, as an alternative election system. Go ahead, read their announcements - "we are fed up with money controlling politics, with politicians having to rely on business to campaign, and serving the business to repay their debts and ignoring the people, it's a vicious cycle that will never end on its own". That was the main idea, in my own words, not stripping villagers of the right to vote, as we were led to believe by "progressive" retards with a mission.

I didn't see any noticeable reduction in corruption since they started or finished their protests

Compare it to Thaksin years where new corruption scandals were breaking out every week. Or imagine how long it would take to sign off those bus projects in TRT years. Now they are dragging it for a year now, stripping all the fat off the budget in multiple steps.

Come to think of it - when did you last hear about any big scandal? Can it even compare to CTX billions?

Yeah it's all good now eh? Unicorns and talking flowers again from Plus.

Just put on those rosy tints, and all is bliss in the Land of Smiles. Doesn't it make you feel just swell.

Sorry got to go get that brown paper bag to get my container out of customs.

[Plus]

Oh boy.

If you see the government covering up blatant corruption ala STX case, let me know.

Little guys skimming their 10% when no one is watching is a different story.

What do you think PAD could have achieved? They targeted the government, not custom officials. Do you see any corruption scandals involving the government? When was the last one? Can you find anything substantial in the past three years, the post-Thaksin era?

[bf2002]

Well it may be a lie, or pandering to the foreigners but these statements are very rarely accidental. It was a closed meeting, and this one of the statements that made its way out. There could be a myriad of reasons, but I think someone may have banged the table and told him he has the backing to do absolutely what he thinks he NEEDS (as opposed to wants)to do to keep the country intact. His statement yesterday has nothing to do with politics and can only be seen as a statement to try to unify the country.

Let us not forget that there were words of civil war only 5 or 6 days ago. People talked of the fact that there may be factions within the army who may split. If that happens there is no way to put the country back together. Thaksins only hope is to split the country, it would appear someone has been told to pull out all the stops to unify it, even if it would appear to hang himself politically.

Maybe a idea to seed a split within the opposition??

When you pardon the TRT+PPP heavyweights, than the current lightweights are not needed anymore.

So they will be replaced by the former politician and may try to avoid that by???? siding with the government??? Avoiding new elections???

Giving some secrets to the courts/media??

Or pardon everything but Thaksin to initate a split from PTP to Thaksin?

Do you think that was a planning or do I think too difficult?

Well it would pull the rug absolutely out from under Thaksin's feet. Even though he hasn't got much left to play with, he still has the support of some of the banned politicians who are still behind him, because no one else has yet offered them a way back into politics. It would also get rid largely of the Newin bargaining strength and go a long way to uniting the country and pander the reds by making it appear that everyone is back around the table, Thaksin excepted.

We all hope that Abhisit is a smart politician. In the long run it would be smart politics, but would need certain people to approve it and certain people to shut up, Sondhi being one of them.

You are not Thai at heart. If you were, you would see things the way they really are.

Thais are not the type to "give" or "reconcile" unless they are driven by greed or fear. Imagine a Westerner's dark side and magnify by 3-4 times minimum.

Abhisit is stating the possibility of amnesty because he knows his time is near. You think this is a fight for "Western opinions"! Seriously, did the PAD give a flip about your thoughts? Did the army before or during or after the coup for over a year?

The only opinion that counts are Thai opinions...and the Thais are disloyal...show weakness and they will blame whoever is in office with the mess of violence, demonstrations, etc. Right now, that is the Democrats....that is the ONLY REASON the present/current PM is talking about potential reconciliation....remember those on his side had nothing to say about reconciliation when they thought they had it won....

What none of these maroons realize is that neither side will ever win....it's a stand down and it's apparent whoever is in control of the hill is easy to push off...too easy....

Thaksin is playing the card he has held off on due to fear or the need to have a final defense/offense....he's pushing it as hard as the army and the yellows did...full protests, full force, full statements to the press...win or lose, it's Russian stylle "scorched land" policy warfare....when it's over, both sides will have destroyed the country quite well....

...And if you are Thai at heart, you should know who will end up back on top when it is over....shouldn't you?

[canuckamuck]

Oh boy.

If you see the government covering up blatant corruption ala STX case, let me know.

Little guys skimming their 10% when no one is watching is a different story.

What do you think PAD could have achieved? They targeted the government, not custom officials. Do you see any corruption scandals involving the government? When was the last one? Can you find anything substantial in the past three years, the post-Thaksin era?

Everything about government in the last three years is a scandal. But there hasn't been anyone in office long enough to set up any large scale corrupt projects.

Thailand changes leadership like socks. I think overthrowing the government is a bigger scandal than a guy doing some insider trading, and making some undue profit.

[Plus]

PPP and Democrats set up plenty of projects, and any projects can be abused.

Any agricultural product price pledging scheme can be corrupt to the core, like longkan in TRT days. Or rubber sapplings.

Last year people were watching rice pledging scheme and Mingkwan's attempts to give juicy contracts to businessmen that were already blacklisted by the govt. It fell through. Money was lost, but by Pridiyatorn estimates it was still in low millions spread over hundreds of participating companies.

Snoh tried to push Bangkok bus lease project. It fell through.

The reason is not he lack of trying or opportunities, the reason is that these days everybody's watching, everybody knows that a good corruption scandal can be milked to no end and eventually bring your opponents down. Remember rotten fish distributed to flood victims? PTP tried very hard to pin it on Democrats and make it into a big issue - it didn't catch on. It was a batch of spoiled fish, nothing sinister.

PAD has demonstrated that you CAN bring people on the streets to protest against corruption, that scares the government, any government. That's the big change from the days when the whole cabinet acted illegaly with complete impunity.

Face it - you won't admit it because it would give credit to PAD and yellows, the designated right wing chovinist fascist pigs.

[canuckamuck]

Right now everything is out of the box here in Thailand, and yes I will credit that to the PAD. Thailand is now completely at the mercy of mob rule. We will be lucky to escape a civil war, well done.

[Plus]

Yeah, if only those pesky yellows could shut up and put up with Thaksin. What's wrong with these people?

[mc2]

Yeah, if only those pesky yellows could shut up and put up with Thaksin. What's wrong with these people?

whats wrong ? they want to burn the house down to kill the rat .

still havent killed the rat but they pretty much burned the house down.

[Plus]

Eventually Thaksin challenged the whole state of Thailand, it wasn't just a rat.

What do you expect them to say? "Oh, he can't be punished, he must be placed above the law, let's call it democracy and go home"

[animatic]

Right now everything is out of the box here in Thailand, and yes I will credit that to the PAD. Thailand is now completely at the mercy of mob rule. We will be lucky to escape a civil war, well done.

Credit where credit is due.

Without Thakin's abuses in office PAD would never have appeared at all.

A cart does NOT come before the horse.

Thaksin started all this and keeps up stirring the pot,

even as PAD essentially stands down.

[Thai at Heart]

You are not Thai at heart. If you were, you would see things the way they really are.

Thais are not the type to "give" or "reconcile" unless they are driven by greed or fear. Imagine a Westerner's dark side and magnify by 3-4 times minimum.

Abhisit is stating the possibility of amnesty because he knows his time is near. You think this is a fight for "Western opinions"! Seriously, did the PAD give a flip about your thoughts? Did the army before or during or after the coup for over a year?

The only opinion that counts are Thai opinions...and the Thais are disloyal...show weakness and they will blame whoever is in office with the mess of violence, demonstrations, etc. Right now, that is the Democrats....that is the ONLY REASON the present/current PM is talking about potential reconciliation....remember those on his side had nothing to say about reconciliation when they thought they had it won....

What none of these maroons realize is that neither side will ever win....it's a stand down and it's apparent whoever is in control of the hill is easy to push off...too easy....

Thaksin is playing the card he has held off on due to fear or the need to have a final defense/offense....he's pushing it as hard as the army and the yellows did...full protests, full force, full statements to the press...win or lose, it's Russian stylle "scorched land" policy warfare....when it's over, both sides will have destroyed the country quite well....

...And if you are Thai at heart, you should know who will end up back on top when it is over....shouldn't you?

If we were looking at this completely from a Thai perspective, do you think that Abhisit would dare to suggest an amnesty? I don't for one second believe this idea is coming from his personal political fear at all. It may be his idea, but the reason behind it must be of greater importance than his immediate political future. He could quit tomorrow and go back to his previous life and would he be any worse off for it?

An amnesty should anyone else be in the PM's shoes would be absolutely unthinkable. I am sure there is massive opposition to this idea among some of the more strident members of his party and others in the army. But it would appear that the time has come for people to put up and shut up and let him get on with it and save the country from the very distinct possibility of splitting completely. There are much bigger players on this field than Abhisit, Newin who care more for their country in the long term than just the next election.

Do you think Abhisit has anything economically to gain from doing this? I just don't see it. There is a saying often used in Thailand about not forgetting where you come from. Well Abhisit may be Thai, but his entire formative years were spent learning Western concepts and understanding. I don't think it is possible to say that he is a typical Thai politician at all. What he is doing with this amnesty idea would in normal Thai politics be considered political suicide. People believed Thaksin wouldn't be corrupt because he was rich already. What we have here is possibly a politician falling on his own sword for the good of the country. Unheard of, but it may be true.

It is I believe a distinctly western concept to float the idea of an amnesty for so called "wrong doers" from the TRT days. What real political benefit does Abhisit gain from an amnesty when this will probably make it harder for him to win elections in the future? There is much more at stake for the long term future of Thailand than this governments immediate future. I don't think a typically Thai politician would dare to use the idea of an amnesty. It would be considered weakness, and go against the idea of smashing one's opponents to solidify one's position which is typical of how most normal political thinking goes not only in Thailand.

He said something like 'political mistakes have to treated differently from criminal activity', that is my quote not his. That sounds lawyer speak to me more than the previous type of bravado we may have got from any other Thai politician. Don't you think that a lot of very important people (unelected) got extremely worried about what they saw with the reds running amok in Bangkok, or do you think they just took it as part and parcel of daily life in Thailand? Do you think he is doing this out of his own political fear, or his and others greater fear for the long term future of the country? News stories were talking about the country being on the verge of civil war. This is not a trivial matter.

This has more to do with it than just uniting the country politically. It was on the verge of possibly polarising over a much greater issue. Thaksin has been accused of being a republican, the yellows have openly used images during their fight to show their loyalty. The amnesty is a huge gamble, but it may work and short of another coup (the traditional Thai way of calming things down), this idea may succeed in stopping the country splitting over a far more serious issue which could really pit Thai against Thai. Only a couple of weeks ago, Abhisit could have been battered to death in Pattaya in his car and then where would we be now?

As for knowing who will come out on top, well none of us has a crystal ball, and if you had tried to predict the events of the last few years, et alone the last few weeks, no-one would have got it right and predicted the level of polarisation that exists today in Thailand. As to who really comes out on top, there are more important people with a lot more to lose than just a Prime Ministership if the reds continue on their quest. He may have found a very clever way to calm most of them down.

[nitecm]

You are not Thai at heart. If you were, you would see things the way they really are.

Thais are not the type to "give" or "reconcile" unless they are driven by greed or fear. Imagine a Westerner's dark side and magnify by 3-4 times minimum.

Abhisit is stating the possibility of amnesty because he knows his time is near. You think this is a fight for "Western opinions"! Seriously, did the PAD give a flip about your thoughts? Did the army before or during or after the coup for over a year?

The only opinion that counts are Thai opinions...and the Thais are disloyal...show weakness and they will blame whoever is in office with the mess of violence, demonstrations, etc. Right now, that is the Democrats....that is the ONLY REASON the present/current PM is talking about potential reconciliation....remember those on his side had nothing to say about reconciliation when they thought they had it won....

What none of these maroons realize is that neither side will ever win....it's a stand down and it's apparent whoever is in control of the hill is easy to push off...too easy....

Thaksin is playing the card he has held off on due to fear or the need to have a final defense/offense....he's pushing it as hard as the army and the yellows did...full protests, full force, full statements to the press...win or lose, it's Russian stylle "scorched land" policy warfare....when it's over, both sides will have destroyed the country quite well....

...And if you are Thai at heart, you should know who will end up back on top when it is over....shouldn't you?

If we were looking at this completely from a Thai perspective, do you think that Abhisit would dare to suggest an amnesty? I don't for one second believe this idea is coming from his personal political fear at all. It may be his idea, but the reason behind it must be of greater importance than his immediate political future. He could quit tomorrow and go back to his previous life and would he be any worse off for it?

An amnesty should anyone else be in the PM's shoes would be absolutely unthinkable. I am sure there is massive opposition to this idea among some of the more strident members of his party and others in the army. But it would appear that the time has come for people to put up and shut up and let him get on with it and save the country from the very distinct possibility of splitting completely. There are much bigger players on this field than Abhisit, Newin who care more for their country in the long term than just the next election.

Do you think Abhisit has anything economically to gain from doing this? I just don't see it. There is a saying often used in Thailand about not forgetting where you come from. Well Abhisit may be Thai, but his entire formative years were spent learning Western concepts and understanding. I don't think it is possible to say that he is a typical Thai politician at all. What he is doing with this amnesty idea would in normal Thai politics be considered political suicide. People believed Thaksin wouldn't be corrupt because he was rich already. What we have here is possibly a politician falling on his own sword for the good of the country. Unheard of, but it may be true.

It is I believe a distinctly western concept to float the idea of an amnesty for so called "wrong doers" from the TRT days. What real political benefit does Abhisit gain from an amnesty when this will probably make it harder for him to win elections in the future? There is much more at stake for the long term future of Thailand than this governments immediate future. I don't think a typically Thai politician would dare to use the idea of an amnesty. It would be considered weakness, and go against the idea of smashing one's opponents to solidify one's position which is typical of how most normal political thinking goes not only in Thailand.

He said something like 'political mistakes have to treated differently from criminal activity', that is my quote not his. That sounds lawyer speak to me more than the previous type of bravado we may have got from any other Thai politician. Don't you think that a lot of very important people (unelected) got extremely worried about what they saw with the reds running amok in Bangkok, or do you think they just took it as part and parcel of daily life in Thailand? Do you think he is doing this out of his own political fear, or his and others greater fear for the long term future of the country? News stories were talking about the country being on the verge of civil war. This is not a trivial matter.

This has more to do with it than just uniting the country politically. It was on the verge of possibly polarising over a much greater issue. Thaksin has been accused of being a republican, the yellows have openly used images during their fight to show their loyalty. The amnesty is a huge gamble, but it may work and short of another coup (the traditional Thai way of calming things down), this idea may succeed in stopping the country splitting over a far more serious issue which could really pit Thai against Thai. Only a couple of weeks ago, Abhisit could have been battered to death in Pattaya in his car and then where would we be now?

As for knowing who will come out on top, well none of us has a crystal ball, and if you had tried to predict the events of the last few years, et alone the last few weeks, no-one would have got it right and predicted the level of polarisation that exists today in Thailand. As to who really comes out on top, there are more important people with a lot more to lose than just a Prime Ministership if the reds continue on their quest. He may have found a very clever way to calm most of them down.

Abhisit will be a great leader in Thai History

[Plus]

I don't know where Abhisit is going with this amnesty plan. Maybe it's a move to counteract Newin's resurgence, maybe it's a move to pacify reds. I don't know how it will play out in the long term - if he lets troublemakers who led the country to the brink of revolution to come out from behind the curtains and take charge of parliament - I don't see any reconciliation coming from that move at all. Those tigers don't change spots, it will take time to build up popular opposition, but another mass uprising against corrupt politicians is unavoidable. People will not accept parliament ala PPP days and PAD will be the first one on the streets, and the likes of Chalerm will again play the role of the nation's democratic conscience to furhter disgust of millions.

It might work if Abhisit plays it right and no controversial figures are resurrected, but how is he going to achieve that? It will be a scramble to get into his good books and no legal rules to weed the troublemakers out. I don't see how it could work, but maybe he has some extra tricks up his sleeve.

[hammered]

You are not Thai at heart. If you were, you would see things the way they really are.

Thais are not the type to "give" or "reconcile" unless they are driven by greed or fear. Imagine a Westerner's dark side and magnify by 3-4 times minimum.

Abhisit is stating the possibility of amnesty because he knows his time is near. You think this is a fight for "Western opinions"! Seriously, did the PAD give a flip about your thoughts? Did the army before or during or after the coup for over a year?

The only opinion that counts are Thai opinions...and the Thais are disloyal...show weakness and they will blame whoever is in office with the mess of violence, demonstrations, etc. Right now, that is the Democrats....that is the ONLY REASON the present/current PM is talking about potential reconciliation....remember those on his side had nothing to say about reconciliation when they thought they had it won....

What none of these maroons realize is that neither side will ever win....it's a stand down and it's apparent whoever is in control of the hill is easy to push off...too easy....

Thaksin is playing the card he has held off on due to fear or the need to have a final defense/offense....he's pushing it as hard as the army and the yellows did...full protests, full force, full statements to the press...win or lose, it's Russian stylle "scorched land" policy warfare....when it's over, both sides will have destroyed the country quite well....

...And if you are Thai at heart, you should know who will end up back on top when it is over....shouldn't you?

If we were looking at this completely from a Thai perspective, do you think that Abhisit would dare to suggest an amnesty? I don't for one second believe this idea is coming from his personal political fear at all. It may be his idea, but the reason behind it must be of greater importance than his immediate political future. He could quit tomorrow and go back to his previous life and would he be any worse off for it?

An amnesty should anyone else be in the PM's shoes would be absolutely unthinkable. I am sure there is massive opposition to this idea among some of the more strident members of his party and others in the army. But it would appear that the time has come for people to put up and shut up and let him get on with it and save the country from the very distinct possibility of splitting completely. There are much bigger players on this field than Abhisit, Newin who care more for their country in the long term than just the next election.

Do you think Abhisit has anything economically to gain from doing this? I just don't see it. There is a saying often used in Thailand about not forgetting where you come from. Well Abhisit may be Thai, but his entire formative years were spent learning Western concepts and understanding. I don't think it is possible to say that he is a typical Thai politician at all. What he is doing with this amnesty idea would in normal Thai politics be considered political suicide. People believed Thaksin wouldn't be corrupt because he was rich already. What we have here is possibly a politician falling on his own sword for the good of the country. Unheard of, but it may be true.

It is I believe a distinctly western concept to float the idea of an amnesty for so called "wrong doers" from the TRT days. What real political benefit does Abhisit gain from an amnesty when this will probably make it harder for him to win elections in the future? There is much more at stake for the long term future of Thailand than this governments immediate future. I don't think a typically Thai politician would dare to use the idea of an amnesty. It would be considered weakness, and go against the idea of smashing one's opponents to solidify one's position which is typical of how most normal political thinking goes not only in Thailand.

He said something like 'political mistakes have to treated differently from criminal activity', that is my quote not his. That sounds lawyer speak to me more than the previous type of bravado we may have got from any other Thai politician. Don't you think that a lot of very important people (unelected) got extremely worried about what they saw with the reds running amok in Bangkok, or do you think they just took it as part and parcel of daily life in Thailand? Do you think he is doing this out of his own political fear, or his and others greater fear for the long term future of the country? News stories were talking about the country being on the verge of civil war. This is not a trivial matter.

This has more to do with it than just uniting the country politically. It was on the verge of possibly polarising over a much greater issue. Thaksin has been accused of being a republican, the yellows have openly used images during their fight to show their loyalty. The amnesty is a huge gamble, but it may work and short of another coup (the traditional Thai way of calming things down), this idea may succeed in stopping the country splitting over a far more serious issue which could really pit Thai against Thai. Only a couple of weeks ago, Abhisit could have been battered to death in Pattaya in his car and then where would we be now?

As for knowing who will come out on top, well none of us has a crystal ball, and if you had tried to predict the events of the last few years, et alone the last few weeks, no-one would have got it right and predicted the level of polarisation that exists today in Thailand. As to who really comes out on top, there are more important people with a lot more to lose than just a Prime Ministership if the reds continue on their quest. He may have found a very clever way to calm most of them down.

An interesting and thought provoking post.

[Samuian]

It is still echoing in my ears that Abhisit claimed that the

amnesty will be ONLY for those who are treated unfairly

and have not broken any laws!

Smart move, testing grounds?

Let's wait and observe, patience, who can judge what hasn't

happened yet?

Right now the focus moves into Newins direction.....

[cmsally]

Interesting post, although I have a feeling Abhisit put forward the amnesty to try and save his political skin and I don't believe that it was his initiative.

Abhisit's role in this is far from clear.