Gbp Rate On The Rise?

[Naam]

One more time with feeling:

In no way shape or form am I offering advice on any of this, I am simply giving my view, my personal opinion and stating what I may do and why. If others disagree I am most happy to be challenged as long as it is a sensible and polite challenge.

sunday morning at dawn! heavy sabers, no body protection. venue: my back garden

[cmsally]

Chiang Mai, i follow your posts quite closeley, and beleive you have a fair and informend view of of this situation at the moment. know here is the question ! in your opioion, wait for it !! what would you do if you were holding £ ? but ultamately wanted bht to finnace the new life in LOS, i can not get my head around changing at the 52 mark, not when having 70 before, or is this just me being pig headed, should i bite the bullet? or wait it out? oh that question is aimed at chaing Mai !

I can't tell you what you should do but since I am holding GBP and I do live in Thailand, this is what I am doing/have done:

I have bought enough THB to cover my living expenses for the next twelve months and if/when I see THB get close to 54 I will likely buy some more, probably only about one years worth however - by doing those things I have covered off my short term strategy. Over the next twelve months I will firm up my view as to where I think currencies will be in three, five and ten years time and I will act once I feel comfortable. My view at present is that the ten year view suggests GBP/THB will be somewhere around 35 or 40, what will happen in the meantime however remains unclear. The BOE is now suggesting that the economic downturn in the UK may last for four or five years and I reckon that is likely - unless the effects of QE generate hyper inflation (and I think this unlikely) there is no reason to believe that UK interest rates will exceed 5% hence I expect GBP to remain weak (or closer to its true value) over that period. I also expect the Thai economy to come out of this downturn much sooner than the UK hence my bullish view on THB over the longer term. If I had to guess at what I might do over the next five years I will likely buy property in Thailand so that I have THB in a fixed asset form.

I would go along with this at present but I still have the niggly election effect at the back of my mind. I think a UK election will be rather sooner than later and I think it could have a booster effect on economy but whether that translates into currency is another thing but I think it may.

However I would also be willing to transfer some GBP to Baht if 54-55 came around. Although luckily I did most of my transferring at 68-70 and don't earn in GBP.

However I see the Thai economy as in very bad shape, am not optimistic at all. So that is another factor.

[BygonKeaw]

One more time with feeling:

In no way shape or form am I offering advice on any of this, I am simply giving my view, my personal opinion and stating what I may do and why. If others disagree I am most happy to be challenged as long as it is a sensible and polite challenge.

sunday morning at dawn! heavy sabers, no body protection. venue: my back garden

Challenged by an over 70???

[chiang mai]

One more time with feeling:

In no way shape or form am I offering advice on any of this, I am simply giving my view, my personal opinion and stating what I may do and why. If others disagree I am most happy to be challenged as long as it is a sensible and polite challenge.

sunday morning at dawn! heavy sabers, no body protection. venue: my back garden

You mean, no deodorant or antiperspirant? I would have to pass on that kind offer!

[MJP]

12D,

As we've spoken about before,

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/05/15...he-uks-bb-debt/

Enjoy.

[chiang mai]

12D,

As we've spoken about before,

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/05/15...he-uks-bb-debt/

Enjoy.

Doesn't it just make you want to cry, or in my case, beat the living daylights out them all.

[MJP]

12D,

As we've spoken about before,

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/05/15...he-uks-bb-debt/

Enjoy.

Doesn't it just make you want to cry, or in my case, beat the living daylights out them all.

CM, I'll admit failure. I'm a loser, a drop out. Was a successful consultant engineer in the UK, now I'm a tramp. Why?

Well, I never borrowed any money, no mortgage, not even a credit card, never had one.

I worked my £$%&*!s off and saved. Lived on dirty old land remediation sites in bunkabins and cars for 12 years, the most uncomfortable existence imaginable outside Guantanamo Camp X-Ray.

Do you really think I'm going to hang around there, living the same and paying other people irresponsibility when I've my own responsibilities?

No.

[Naam]

One more time with feeling:

In no way shape or form am I offering advice on any of this, I am simply giving my view, my personal opinion and stating what I may do and why. If others disagree I am most happy to be challenged as long as it is a sensible and polite challenge.

sunday morning at dawn! heavy sabers, no body protection. venue: my back garden

Challenged by an over 70???

simple arithmetic is not your strength i assume

[Naam]

One more time with feeling:

In no way shape or form am I offering advice on any of this, I am simply giving my view, my personal opinion and stating what I may do and why. If others disagree I am most happy to be challenged as long as it is a sensible and polite challenge.

sunday morning at dawn! heavy sabers, no body protection. venue: my back garden

You mean, no deodorant or antiperspirant? I would have to pass on that kind offer!

of course not! imagine yourself covered with sabre wounds all over which would hurt even more if deodorants were applied before

[chiang mai]

One more time with feeling:

In no way shape or form am I offering advice on any of this, I am simply giving my view, my personal opinion and stating what I may do and why. If others disagree I am most happy to be challenged as long as it is a sensible and polite challenge.

sunday morning at dawn! heavy sabers, no body protection. venue: my back garden

You mean, no deodorant or antiperspirant? I would have to pass on that kind offer!

of course not! imagine yourself covered with sabre wounds all over which would hurt even more if deodorants were applied before

A true gentleman would propose a more civilized duel, I have in mind feather dusters at twenty paces with a full pitcher of Pimms carried on the other hand - first one to spill a drop loses. Enough of this blood letting stuff, it's just not on you know!

[BygonKeaw]

Ok stop flirting you two, Get back on topic please

Edited May 16, 2009 by BygonKeaw

[thaimate]

Ok stop flirting you two, Get back on topic please

seconded

[chiang mai]

You caught us, opps!

Seriously though, if you are following this thread in the hopes of gaining some kind of insight into what the future may hold for you financially, well, Naam's crystal ball has been sunk by his dog and me, I'm just an interested amateur. We have great banter on occasion but if you are serious about wanting to retain your ill gotten gains (!) you need to take your own stab at YOUR analysis and come up with an answer YOU're comfortable with. For my part I tend to put up idea's and strategies on this forum that I have thought about and as LRB knows only too well, allow people to shoot holes in them, there are no financial Gods! So, get on with the work at hand, OK?

[PCA]

You caught us, opps!

Seriously though, if you are following this thread in the hopes of gaining some kind of insight into what the future may hold for you financially, well, Naam's crystal ball has been sunk by his dog and me, I'm just an interested amateur. We have great banter on occasion but if you are serious about wanting to retain your ill gotten gains (!) you need to take your own stab at YOUR analysis and come up with an answer YOU're comfortable with. For my part I tend to put up idea's and strategies on this forum that I have thought about and as LRB knows only too well, allow people to shoot holes in them, there are no financial Gods! So, get on with the work at hand, OK?

Well, there is one he is known as the BEAR and very soon he will be back to inspire again.

Joke aside as you have already pointed out what you think is not more than your personal opinion which might turn out right as well as wrong but one thing you should consider when spreading your thoughts is that in case you are wrong you gonna be the bad guy for those who got influenced from what you wrote whilst should you be right your followers would probably credit themselves for all action taken. And its always people with little or no money they can afford to lose who are asking about advise, influencing them is irresponsible in my eyes. Just my thought and I hope you don't take it as an offence.

[chiang mai]

You caught us, opps!

Seriously though, if you are following this thread in the hopes of gaining some kind of insight into what the future may hold for you financially, well, Naam's crystal ball has been sunk by his dog and me, I'm just an interested amateur. We have great banter on occasion but if you are serious about wanting to retain your ill gotten gains (!) you need to take your own stab at YOUR analysis and come up with an answer YOU're comfortable with. For my part I tend to put up idea's and strategies on this forum that I have thought about and as LRB knows only too well, allow people to shoot holes in them, there are no financial Gods! So, get on with the work at hand, OK?

Well, there is one he is known as the BEAR and very soon he will be back to inspire again.

Joke aside as you have already pointed out what you think is not more than your personal opinion which might turn out right as well as wrong but one thing you should consider when spreading your thoughts is that in case you are wrong you gonna be the bad guy for those who got influenced from what you wrote whilst should you be right your followers would probably credit themselves for all action taken. And its always people with little or no money they can afford to lose who are asking about advise, influencing them is irresponsible in my eyes. Just my thought and I hope you don't take it as an offence.

Sleep well!

[PCA]

You caught us, opps!

Seriously though, if you are following this thread in the hopes of gaining some kind of insight into what the future may hold for you financially, well, Naam's crystal ball has been sunk by his dog and me, I'm just an interested amateur. We have great banter on occasion but if you are serious about wanting to retain your ill gotten gains (!) you need to take your own stab at YOUR analysis and come up with an answer YOU're comfortable with. For my part I tend to put up idea's and strategies on this forum that I have thought about and as LRB knows only too well, allow people to shoot holes in them, there are no financial Gods! So, get on with the work at hand, OK?

Well, there is one he is known as the BEAR and very soon he will be back to inspire again.

Joke aside as you have already pointed out what you think is not more than your personal opinion which might turn out right as well as wrong but one thing you should consider when spreading your thoughts is that in case you are wrong you gonna be the bad guy for those who got influenced from what you wrote whilst should you be right your followers would probably credit themselves for all action taken. And its always people with little or no money they can afford to lose who are asking about advise, influencing them is irresponsible in my eyes. Just my thought and I hope you don't take it as an offence.

Sleep well!

whats that suppose to mean?

[BEENTHEREDONETHAT]

Just heard on bloomburg (16:34) that the GBP is expected to raise 18% on the US dollar this year and 11% on the Euro.

That should make some of you happy, but they didn't mention the baht.

[MJP]

Just heard on bloomburg (16:34) that the GBP is expected to raise 18% on the US dollar this year and 11% on the Euro.

That should make some of you happy, but they didn't mention the baht.

Did I ever tell you what a beautiful individual you are?

[Merangue]

Just heard on bloomburg (16:34) that the GBP is expected to raise 18% on the US dollar this year and 11% on the Euro.

That should make some of you happy, but they didn't mention the baht.

Extract from the above bloomberg report

While the Bank of England said it expects a “protracted” economic recovery in the U.K., where unemployment is the highest since Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s Labour Party came to power in 1997, investors from Millennium Asset Management to Mellon Capital Management Corp. are betting the pound’s decline is coming to an end.

Strategists at New York-based Citigroup Inc. said in a report last week the pound is “among the most undervalued major currencies,” trading almost 15 percent below “fair value” versus the dollar. Barclays Plc predicts it will rise as much as 18 percent against the dollar and 11 percent versus the euro in the coming year. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. sees a 23 percent gain versus the dollar and 15 percent advance against the euro.

Money is already pouring into Britain. Currency flows into the pound from pension funds, insurers and other institutional investors in the 60 days to May 13 were more than 99 percent higher than any comparable period since 1997, according to Boston-based State Street Global Markets LLC, the world’s second-largest custodian of financial assets, with $11.3 trillion.

‘Extreme Undershoot’

“There was an extreme undershoot of sterling versus the euro during the financial crisis,” said David Powell, a currency strategist in London at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch. “The risk of implosion for the financial system has largely passed, sparing the U.K. economy and sterling.”

The pound strengthened 0.8 percent to 88.23 pence per euro as of 10:03 a.m. in London, taking its advance this month to 1.4 percent. Against the dollar it rose 0.5 percent to $1.5254, a 3.1 percent gain since the end of April. The currency appreciated 3.3 percent last month against the dollar, the biggest gain since soaring 5.1 percent in the same month of 2006.

Investors are turning bullish on sterling as the slowdown in the U.K. economy shows signs of abating. Gross domestic product contracted at a 4.1 percent rate in the first quarter, the most since Margaret Thatcher was prime minister in 1980.

Pretty much what i have been thinking for some time using my Tealeaf and astrology investment system.

[jackinbkk]

Just heard on bloomburg (16:34) that the GBP is expected to raise 18% on the US dollar this year and 11% on the Euro.

That should make some of you happy, but they didn't mention the baht.

At last some common sense.

People need to remember a fiat currency is only worth what the majority believe it is worth since dropping the gold standard.

It's true the Eurozone is in a much worse state than the UK. Debt there is 70% of GDP. Production has fallen sharply. The interest rate is still higher than the UK, USA and Japan. Britain was quick to lower interest rates, quantitative easing has been used to strip out the bad assets easing credit flows. The libor is at it's lowest level ever. Once more banks lend, more businesses do business and more people have jobs again things will return to the way they were.

However what is important to watch is production figures in industry and manufacturing. When these figure start to rise it shows there is a good foundation in place supporting the economy. In the US consumer spending is 70% of the economy so this is another figure to watch closely.

The pound will likely rise to around the $1.60 mark before years end. This should correspond roughly to a 55 baht mark. The UK is in a good position for the future. When investors have strong sentiment to invest again money will flow through the financial heart that is London. There will be greater demand for Sterling to purchase assets in the FTSE and the loss of risk aversion will show a weakening of the US Dollar and Yen. It is likely however in the short term that we will see retractions in the worlds equity markets after the very rapid rise from March 9th.

When this happens we will see a weakening of the Euro and Pound. A fall back to around 51 baht is likely.

http://www.economist.com/world/britain/dis...ory_id=13525219

Edited May 18, 2009 by jackinbkk

[chiang mai]

Just heard on bloomburg (16:34) that the GBP is expected to raise 18% on the US dollar this year and 11% on the Euro.

That should make some of you happy, but they didn't mention the baht.

At last some common sense.

People need to remember a fiat currency is only worth what the majority believe it is worth since dropping the gold standard.

It's true the Eurozone is in a much worse state than the UK. Debt there is 70% of GDP. Production has fallen sharply. The interest rate is still higher than the UK, USA and Japan. Britain was quick to lower interest rates, quantitative easing has been used to strip out the bad assets easing credit flows. The libor is at it's lowest level ever. Once more banks lend, more businesses do business and more people have jobs again things will return to the way they were.

However what is important to watch is production figures in industry and manufacturing. When these figure start to rise it shows there is a good foundation in place supporting the economy. In the US consumer spending is 70% of the economy so this is another figure to watch closely.

The pound will likely rise to around the $1.60 mark before years end. This should correspond roughly to a 55 baht mark. The UK is in a good position for the future. When investors have strong sentiment to invest again money will flow through the financial heart that is London. There will be greater demand for Sterling to purchase assets in the FTSE and the loss of risk aversion will show a weakening of the US Dollar and Yen. It is likely however in the short term that we will see retractions in the worlds equity markets after the very rapid rise from March 9th.

When this happens we will see a weakening of the Euro and Pound. A fall back to around 51 baht is likely.

http://www.economist.com/world/britain/dis...ory_id=13525219

All of that seems to be in line with what we discussed earlier in this thread, a short term rise and then a fall back, 54 or 55 in the short term, 50 and below in the medium term.

[ChiangMaiFun]

Just heard on bloomburg (16:34) that the GBP is expected to raise 18% on the US dollar this year and 11% on the Euro.

That should make some of you happy, but they didn't mention the baht.

At last some common sense.

People need to remember a fiat currency is only worth what the majority believe it is worth since dropping the gold standard.

It's true the Eurozone is in a much worse state than the UK. Debt there is 70% of GDP. Production has fallen sharply. The interest rate is still higher than the UK, USA and Japan. Britain was quick to lower interest rates, quantitative easing has been used to strip out the bad assets easing credit flows. The libor is at it's lowest level ever. Once more banks lend, more businesses do business and more people have jobs again things will return to the way they were.

However what is important to watch is production figures in industry and manufacturing. When these figure start to rise it shows there is a good foundation in place supporting the economy. In the US consumer spending is 70% of the economy so this is another figure to watch closely.

The pound will likely rise to around the $1.60 mark before years end. This should correspond roughly to a 55 baht mark. The UK is in a good position for the future. When investors have strong sentiment to invest again money will flow through the financial heart that is London. There will be greater demand for Sterling to purchase assets in the FTSE and the loss of risk aversion will show a weakening of the US Dollar and Yen. It is likely however in the short term that we will see retractions in the worlds equity markets after the very rapid rise from March 9th.

When this happens we will see a weakening of the Euro and Pound. A fall back to around 51 baht is likely.

http://www.economist.com/world/britain/dis...ory_id=13525219

All of that seems to be in line with what we discussed earlier in this thread, a short term rise and then a fall back, 54 or 55 in the short term, 50 and below in the medium term.

I agree... just wish I knew what 'short term' meant! one week? one month? two months? I ask as I'm transferring a large amount very soon

[Merangue]

Just heard on bloomburg (16:34) that the GBP is expected to raise 18% on the US dollar this year and 11% on the Euro.

That should make some of you happy, but they didn't mention the baht.

At last some common sense.

People need to remember a fiat currency is only worth what the majority believe it is worth since dropping the gold standard.

It's true the Eurozone is in a much worse state than the UK. Debt there is 70% of GDP. Production has fallen sharply. The interest rate is still higher than the UK, USA and Japan. Britain was quick to lower interest rates, quantitative easing has been used to strip out the bad assets easing credit flows. The libor is at it's lowest level ever. Once more banks lend, more businesses do business and more people have jobs again things will return to the way they were.

However what is important to watch is production figures in industry and manufacturing. When these figure start to rise it shows there is a good foundation in place supporting the economy. In the US consumer spending is 70% of the economy so this is another figure to watch closely.

The pound will likely rise to around the $1.60 mark before years end. This should correspond roughly to a 55 baht mark. The UK is in a good position for the future. When investors have strong sentiment to invest again money will flow through the financial heart that is London. There will be greater demand for Sterling to purchase assets in the FTSE and the loss of risk aversion will show a weakening of the US Dollar and Yen. It is likely however in the short term that we will see retractions in the worlds equity markets after the very rapid rise from March 9th.

When this happens we will see a weakening of the Euro and Pound. A fall back to around 51 baht is likely.

http://www.economist.com/world/britain/dis...ory_id=13525219

Not sure i understand how that works.

When this happens we will see a weakening of the Euro and Pound. A fall back to around 51 baht is likely.

When what happens?

To me the previous paragraph appears to be talking about a drop in the US Dollar and the Yen. would this not mean that if anything the Pound and the euro will if anything be improved somewhat?

The rapid rise since March 9th ( of the Dollar ) has already happened and the previous bloomberg report seems to be saying that the Pound is heavily undervalued so will therefore bounce back somewhat.

Sorry i just can't seem to get my head aorund the wording that leads to another drop to 51 or lower in the mid term.

[chiang mai]

Just heard on bloomburg (16:34) that the GBP is expected to raise 18% on the US dollar this year and 11% on the Euro.

That should make some of you happy, but they didn't mention the baht.

At last some common sense.

People need to remember a fiat currency is only worth what the majority believe it is worth since dropping the gold standard.

It's true the Eurozone is in a much worse state than the UK. Debt there is 70% of GDP. Production has fallen sharply. The interest rate is still higher than the UK, USA and Japan. Britain was quick to lower interest rates, quantitative easing has been used to strip out the bad assets easing credit flows. The libor is at it's lowest level ever. Once more banks lend, more businesses do business and more people have jobs again things will return to the way they were.

However what is important to watch is production figures in industry and manufacturing. When these figure start to rise it shows there is a good foundation in place supporting the economy. In the US consumer spending is 70% of the economy so this is another figure to watch closely.

The pound will likely rise to around the $1.60 mark before years end. This should correspond roughly to a 55 baht mark. The UK is in a good position for the future. When investors have strong sentiment to invest again money will flow through the financial heart that is London. There will be greater demand for Sterling to purchase assets in the FTSE and the loss of risk aversion will show a weakening of the US Dollar and Yen. It is likely however in the short term that we will see retractions in the worlds equity markets after the very rapid rise from March 9th.

When this happens we will see a weakening of the Euro and Pound. A fall back to around 51 baht is likely.

http://www.economist.com/world/britain/dis...ory_id=13525219

Not sure i understand how that works.

When this happens we will see a weakening of the Euro and Pound. A fall back to around 51 baht is likely.

When what happens?

To me the previous paragraph appears to be talking about a drop in the US Dollar and the Yen. would this not mean that if anything the Pound and the euro will if anything be improved somewhat?

The rapid rise since March 9th ( of the Dollar ) has already happened and the previous bloomberg report seems to be saying that the Pound is heavily undervalued so will therefore bounce back somewhat.

Sorry i just can't seem to get my head aorund the wording that leads to another drop to 51 or lower in the mid term.

Think of it in two parts:

The first part (the short term) is that GBP is undervalued currently hence it will strengthen against USD and perhaps it will go to 1.60 - that should translate into a GBP/THB of around 55'ish.

The second part (the medium term) is a strengthening of the Baht (not necessarily a strengthening of USD) against a GBP that is at fair value (actually I think fair value is probably a little bit higher). That will likely result in a stronger Baht hence a fall back from the mid 50's to around 50 Baht per Pound - that fall will, I think, set the trend for future years.

Timescales for short and medium term, haven't got a clue. But as we speak the Pound is strengthening quite noticeably.

[Merangue]

Just heard on bloomburg (16:34) that the GBP is expected to raise 18% on the US dollar this year and 11% on the Euro.

That should make some of you happy, but they didn't mention the baht.

At last some common sense.

People need to remember a fiat currency is only worth what the majority believe it is worth since dropping the gold standard.

It's true the Eurozone is in a much worse state than the UK. Debt there is 70% of GDP. Production has fallen sharply. The interest rate is still higher than the UK, USA and Japan. Britain was quick to lower interest rates, quantitative easing has been used to strip out the bad assets easing credit flows. The libor is at it's lowest level ever. Once more banks lend, more businesses do business and more people have jobs again things will return to the way they were.

However what is important to watch is production figures in industry and manufacturing. When these figure start to rise it shows there is a good foundation in place supporting the economy. In the US consumer spending is 70% of the economy so this is another figure to watch closely.

The pound will likely rise to around the $1.60 mark before years end. This should correspond roughly to a 55 baht mark. The UK is in a good position for the future. When investors have strong sentiment to invest again money will flow through the financial heart that is London. There will be greater demand for Sterling to purchase assets in the FTSE and the loss of risk aversion will show a weakening of the US Dollar and Yen. It is likely however in the short term that we will see retractions in the worlds equity markets after the very rapid rise from March 9th.

When this happens we will see a weakening of the Euro and Pound. A fall back to around 51 baht is likely.

http://www.economist.com/world/britain/dis...ory_id=13525219

Not sure i understand how that works.

When this happens we will see a weakening of the Euro and Pound. A fall back to around 51 baht is likely.

When what happens?

To me the previous paragraph appears to be talking about a drop in the US Dollar and the Yen. would this not mean that if anything the Pound and the euro will if anything be improved somewhat?

The rapid rise since March 9th ( of the Dollar ) has already happened and the previous bloomberg report seems to be saying that the Pound is heavily undervalued so will therefore bounce back somewhat.

Sorry i just can't seem to get my head aorund the wording that leads to another drop to 51 or lower in the mid term.

Think of it in two parts:

The first part (the short term) is that GBP is undervalued currently hence it will strengthen against USD and perhaps it will go to 1.60 - that should translate into a GBP/THB of around 55'ish.

The second part (the medium term) is a strengthening of the Baht (not necessarily a strengthening of USD) against a GBP that is at fair value (actually I think fair value is probably a little bit higher). That will likely result in a stronger Baht hence a fall back from the mid 50's to around 50 Baht per Pound - that fall will, I think, set the trend for future years.

Timescales for short and medium term, haven't got a clue. But as we speak the Pound is strengthening quite noticeably.

It is this part i am not sure i understand. What reason is given for the Thai Baht to strengthen against the Pound? For that matter against any currency? Not sure how the Thai Baht is expected to strenthen at all.

Note i am not disagreeing, i simply do not understand how the Baht can be expected to strengthen when many feel that it is already being manipulated to keep its strength higher than it should be already.

Most people were talking about how the Thai economy is likely to feel the true impact of the Credit crunch a little later than those countries in the west already affected. Has this now been disregarded? If so, why?

[PCA]

Just heard on bloomburg (16:34) that the GBP is expected to raise 18% on the US dollar this year and 11% on the Euro.

That should make some of you happy, but they didn't mention the baht.

At last some common sense.

People need to remember a fiat currency is only worth what the majority believe it is worth since dropping the gold standard.

It's true the Eurozone is in a much worse state than the UK. Debt there is 70% of GDP. Production has fallen sharply. The interest rate is still higher than the UK, USA and Japan. Britain was quick to lower interest rates, quantitative easing has been used to strip out the bad assets easing credit flows. The libor is at it's lowest level ever. Once more banks lend, more businesses do business and more people have jobs again things will return to the way they were.

However what is important to watch is production figures in industry and manufacturing. When these figure start to rise it shows there is a good foundation in place supporting the economy. In the US consumer spending is 70% of the economy so this is another figure to watch closely.

The pound will likely rise to around the $1.60 mark before years end. This should correspond roughly to a 55 baht mark. The UK is in a good position for the future. When investors have strong sentiment to invest again money will flow through the financial heart that is London. There will be greater demand for Sterling to purchase assets in the FTSE and the loss of risk aversion will show a weakening of the US Dollar and Yen. It is likely however in the short term that we will see retractions in the worlds equity markets after the very rapid rise from March 9th.

When this happens we will see a weakening of the Euro and Pound. A fall back to around 51 baht is likely.

http://www.economist.com/world/britain/dis...ory_id=13525219

Not sure i understand how that works.

When this happens we will see a weakening of the Euro and Pound. A fall back to around 51 baht is likely.

When what happens?

To me the previous paragraph appears to be talking about a drop in the US Dollar and the Yen. would this not mean that if anything the Pound and the euro will if anything be improved somewhat?

The rapid rise since March 9th ( of the Dollar ) has already happened and the previous bloomberg report seems to be saying that the Pound is heavily undervalued so will therefore bounce back somewhat.

Sorry i just can't seem to get my head aorund the wording that leads to another drop to 51 or lower in the mid term.

Think of it in two parts:

The first part (the short term) is that GBP is undervalued currently hence it will strengthen against USD and perhaps it will go to 1.60 - that should translate into a GBP/THB of around 55'ish.

The second part (the medium term) is a strengthening of the Baht (not necessarily a strengthening of USD) against a GBP that is at fair value (actually I think fair value is probably a little bit higher). That will likely result in a stronger Baht hence a fall back from the mid 50's to around 50 Baht per Pound - that fall will, I think, set the trend for future years.

Timescales for short and medium term, haven't got a clue. But as we speak the Pound is strengthening quite noticeably.

obviously you really think that you have a clue about what you are talking here, really funny. Anyway when the pound hits 60 most likely you will start to recognize the value of your posts.

[chiang mai]

obviously you really think that you have a clue about what you are talking here, really funny. Anyway when the pound hits 60 most likely you will start to recognize the value of your posts.

That's a pretty bold speculative move on your part isn't it PCA, I mean, to suggest that I might be off by a margin of error of as much as 10% why that's just totally unacceptable I suppose! BTW, if you disagree with my opinions, please feel free to add supportive detail and reasons why at any time!!

Edited May 19, 2009 by chiang mai

[mommysboy]

I've been repeatedly blocked from adding replies to this thread. Seems Chiang Mai has friends in higher places

[MJP]

I've been repeatedly blocked from adding replies to this thread. Seems Chiang Mai has friends in higher places

How? He's from Patong Beach.

[PCA]

[

obviously you really think that you have a clue about what you are talking here, really funny. Anyway when the pound hits 60 most likely you will start to recognize the value of your posts.

That's a pretty bold speculative move on your part isn't it PCA, I mean, to suggest that I might be off by a margin of error of as much as 10% why that's just totally unacceptable I suppose! BTW, if you disagree with my opinions, please feel free to add supportive detail and reasons why at any time!!

I dont understand this post and book it as junk like most of the other weird stuff you have been releasing during this thread so far. I have said what I think about it before and don't see a need to further discuss the quality of your opinion. I would not have posted here at all until someone asked for your specific advise and given that my opinion about your skills is not a very positive one I couldn't hold it. And believe my I arrived at this belief without the support of google