Outlook For The Set

[Harmonica]

I'm getting back into the thread I started after quite awhile. Hey it looks like no one ever answered my original question, i.e., is buying a SET Index Fund a good idea with a horizon of 8-10 years? Possible longer.

I don't have time to research individual stocks and besides, everything I've read on the subject says even the most tech-savvy analysts rarely match, much less beat, the stock market average in the long run. But I think I probably explained my philosophy on that in the beginning.

Has anyone out there invested in or studied one of the SET index funds? I'm looking at one offered by SCB.

Thanks.

I did answer your other questions but deliberately did NOT answer your SET Index Fund question -- why? .. because your name is sabaijai, not jaidam or jairai and furthermore because you are a supermod here.

Allow me to explain:

Had you got in then you would be showing considerable losses today -- and despite your stated 8-10 year horizon, I would not recommend something to anybody that is slated for a forthcoming period of heavy losses. Your money could be placed elsewhere during this period and be earning a good, decent positive return. Why go against the river when the gold is downstream?

That is why I did not answer you on this subject. I knew you were a novice (nothing wrong with that), and wanted you to just use the coming months to prepare, but not to participate just yet!

Look at the chart below for a clearly marked (in red arrows at the top left) entrance point around the time of your post, namely February 2nd and then where SET was just recently (shown with red arrows toward the lower right of the chart).

[Harmonica]

For sabaijai:

Fast forward to the present -- what do we have? The Thai Baht is weakening and therefore SET is finding it extremely difficult to rally and move up. This is clearly evident via the low, low volume. SET, like any Index needs fuel to rise -- it can only go so far on fumes alone! And fumes is what has been driving her recently.

The SET Index Fund (thru' SCB, highly recommended as the source) is a nice way to go for people like yourself who don't have the time to research stocks. But surely, timing your entry should be the key, shouldn't it?

The 2 burning questions, "what to buy?" and "when to buy?" have confused people for aeons.

I am of the opinion that "when to buy" is the absolute KEY!

For when the tide rises 90% of boats will rise with it -- this is why the "when" is of paramount importance. Remember the cliche, "why go against the flow?"

Mr. T has not yet instituted SHORTING of the SET, so going south with the Index is out of the question currently.

As for buying the Fund LONG, this is a very tricky time to enter. Why not wait a bit for the dust to settle and we all have a clearer view of what's going on?

Hold cash now, my friend. That is my advice, but you're the boss of your own destiny. Your call !

[sabaijai]

For sabaijai:

Fast forward to the present -- what do we have?  The Thai Baht is weakening and therefore SET is finding it extremely difficult to rally and move up.  This is clearly evident via the low, low volume.  SET, like any Index needs fuel to rise -- it can only go so far on fumes alone!  And fumes is what has been driving her recently.

The SET Index Fund (thru' SCB, highly recommended as the source) is a nice way to go for people like yourself who don't have the time to research stocks.  But surely,  timing your entry should be the key, shouldn't it?

The 2 burning questions, "what to buy?" and "when to buy?" have confused people for aeons.

I am of the opinion that "when to buy" is the absolute KEY! 

For when the tide rises 90% of boats will rise with it -- this is why the "when" is of paramount importance.  Remember the cliche, "why go against the flow?"

Mr. T has not yet instituted SHORTING of the SET, so going south with the Index is out of the question currently.

As for buying the Fund LONG, this is a very tricky time to enter.  Why not wait a bit for the dust to settle and we all have a clearer view of what's going on?

Hold cash now, my friend.  That is my advice, but you're the boss of your own destiny.  Your call !

Thanks for all that. But isn't now the time to buy, with the SET about as low as it can get? Or should I wait till it's even lower, is that what you're suggesting?

My idea was to invest a fixed sum every month, to take advantage of dollar-cost averaging, thus evening out the peaks and valleys to some degree.

I'm a SET novice alright. One of the reasons I wanted an index fund (I already have a couple based on the US stock market) is so as it ride with the market as a whole and not think about timing so much. Seems to me if you believe in the SET at all, that it's led by a sound group of companies, that it will eventually go up. Why wait till it does?

Come to think of it, I don't even know the average annual return for the SET since it was begun, probably something worth looking into. When I bought US index funds I did so knowing I would more or less match the stock market.

The idea is to bet on the market as a whole, rather than try to figure out which stocks are going to make money. The graphs are interesting but supposedly no one ever consistently beat the stock market - much less matched it - relying on analysis and/or timing, or at least that's what the experts say. The past isn't all that predictive of the future, etc. Isn't that the philosopy behind index funds?

On the other hand if the SET has no future in an 8-10 year run then I should probably stay out of it altogether. This is what I'm trying to find out, what's the long-term outlook for the SET.

[Harmonica]

For sabaijai:

Fast forward to the present -- what do we have?  The Thai Baht is weakening and therefore SET is finding it extremely difficult to rally and move up.  This is clearly evident via the low, low volume.  SET, like any Index needs fuel to rise -- it can only go so far on fumes alone!  And fumes is what has been driving her recently.

The SET Index Fund (thru' SCB, highly recommended as the source) is a nice way to go for people like yourself who don't have the time to research stocks.  But surely,  timing your entry should be the key, shouldn't it?

The 2 burning questions, "what to buy?" and "when to buy?" have confused people for aeons.

I am of the opinion that "when to buy" is the absolute KEY! 

For when the tide rises 90% of boats will rise with it -- this is why the "when" is of paramount importance.  Remember the cliche, "why go against the flow?"

Mr. T has not yet instituted SHORTING of the SET, so going south with the Index is out of the question currently.

As for buying the Fund LONG, this is a very tricky time to enter.  Why not wait a bit for the dust to settle and we all have a clearer view of what's going on?

Hold cash now, my friend.  That is my advice, but you're the boss of your own destiny.  Your call !

Thanks for all that. But isn't now the time to buy, with the SET about as low as it can get? Or should I wait till it's even lower, is that what you're suggesting?

My idea was to invest a fixed sum every month, to take advantage of dollar-cost averaging, thus evening out the peaks and valleys to some degree.

I'm a SET novice alright. One of the reasons I wanted an index fund (I already have a couple based on the US stock market) is so as it ride with the market as a whole and not think about timing so much. Seems to me if you believe in the SET at all, that it's led by a sound group of companies, that it will eventually go up. Why wait till it does?

Come to think of it, I don't even know the average annual return for the SET since it was begun, probably something worth looking into. When I bought US index funds I did so knowing I would more or less match the stock market.

The idea is to bet on the market as a whole, rather than try to figure out which stocks are going to make money. The graphs are interesting but supposedly no one ever consistently beat the stock market - much less matched it - relying on analysis and/or timing, or at least that's what the experts say. The past isn't all that predictive of the future, etc. Isn't that the philosopy behind index funds?

On the other hand if the SET has no future in an 8-10 year run then I should probably stay out of it altogether. This is what I'm trying to find out, what's the long-term outlook for the SET.

Why are you in such a hurry to lose money?

Will post some answers to your qts next week.

[sabaijai]

For sabaijai:

Fast forward to the present -- what do we have?  The Thai Baht is weakening and therefore SET is finding it extremely difficult to rally and move up.  This is clearly evident via the low, low volume.  SET, like any Index needs fuel to rise -- it can only go so far on fumes alone!  And fumes is what has been driving her recently.

The SET Index Fund (thru' SCB, highly recommended as the source) is a nice way to go for people like yourself who don't have the time to research stocks.  But surely,  timing your entry should be the key, shouldn't it?

The 2 burning questions, "what to buy?" and "when to buy?" have confused people for aeons.

I am of the opinion that "when to buy" is the absolute KEY! 

For when the tide rises 90% of boats will rise with it -- this is why the "when" is of paramount importance.  Remember the cliche, "why go against the flow?"

Mr. T has not yet instituted SHORTING of the SET, so going south with the Index is out of the question currently.

As for buying the Fund LONG, this is a very tricky time to enter.  Why not wait a bit for the dust to settle and we all have a clearer view of what's going on?

Hold cash now, my friend.  That is my advice, but you're the boss of your own destiny.  Your call !

Thanks for all that. But isn't now the time to buy, with the SET about as low as it can get? Or should I wait till it's even lower, is that what you're suggesting?

My idea was to invest a fixed sum every month, to take advantage of dollar-cost averaging, thus evening out the peaks and valleys to some degree.

I'm a SET novice alright. One of the reasons I wanted an index fund (I already have a couple based on the US stock market) is so as it ride with the market as a whole and not think about timing so much. Seems to me if you believe in the SET at all, that it's led by a sound group of companies, that it will eventually go up. Why wait till it does?

Come to think of it, I don't even know the average annual return for the SET since it was begun, probably something worth looking into. When I bought US index funds I did so knowing I would more or less match the stock market.

The idea is to bet on the market as a whole, rather than try to figure out which stocks are going to make money. The graphs are interesting but supposedly no one ever consistently beat the stock market - much less matched it - relying on analysis and/or timing, or at least that's what the experts say. The past isn't all that predictive of the future, etc. Isn't that the philosopy behind index funds?

On the other hand if the SET has no future in an 8-10 year run then I should probably stay out of it altogether. This is what I'm trying to find out, what's the long-term outlook for the SET.

Why are you in such a hurry to lose money?

Will post some answers to your qts next week.

What hurry? I started this thread six months ago and haven't invested in the SET yet.

Also if you think a SET index fund will lose money in the interval I mentioned, then I already have your answer, don't I? It doesn't matter at what point you enter the market, if an 8-10 year outlook brings a satisfactory net return. I'd be curious to know, though, why you think it won't. I don't care about 'losing money' the first month or year, I lose nothing if I don't sell and I wouldn't for 8-10 years (leaving a two-year window to sell when things are bullish rather than bearish).

Trying to time the market on a day-to-day or month-to-month based on past performance seems a surer way of losing money to me.

"Wall Street has conclusively proven to us that pursuit of performance above a benchmark is an unproductive use of our time, our talent and our money. By trying to beat the stock market average, it's easy to forget that the stock market has historically provided an excellent investment return, and by trying to beat an already good thing, investors are virtually guaranteed to end up below it." Bill Schultheis, The Coffeehouse Investor

Anyone else have any opinions?

[Harmonica]

For sabaijai:

Fast forward to the present -- what do we have?  The Thai Baht is weakening and therefore SET is finding it extremely difficult to rally and move up.  This is clearly evident via the low, low volume.  SET, like any Index needs fuel to rise -- it can only go so far on fumes alone!  And fumes is what has been driving her recently.

The SET Index Fund (thru' SCB, highly recommended as the source) is a nice way to go for people like yourself who don't have the time to research stocks.  But surely,  timing your entry should be the key, shouldn't it?

The 2 burning questions, "what to buy?" and "when to buy?" have confused people for aeons.

I am of the opinion that "when to buy" is the absolute KEY! 

For when the tide rises 90% of boats will rise with it -- this is why the "when" is of paramount importance.  Remember the cliche, "why go against the flow?"

Mr. T has not yet instituted SHORTING of the SET, so going south with the Index is out of the question currently.

As for buying the Fund LONG, this is a very tricky time to enter.  Why not wait a bit for the dust to settle and we all have a clearer view of what's going on?

Hold cash now, my friend.  That is my advice, but you're the boss of your own destiny.  Your call !

Thanks for all that. But isn't now the time to buy, with the SET about as low as it can get? Or should I wait till it's even lower, is that what you're suggesting?

My idea was to invest a fixed sum every month, to take advantage of dollar-cost averaging, thus evening out the peaks and valleys to some degree.

I'm a SET novice alright. One of the reasons I wanted an index fund (I already have a couple based on the US stock market) is so as it ride with the market as a whole and not think about timing so much. Seems to me if you believe in the SET at all, that it's led by a sound group of companies, that it will eventually go up. Why wait till it does?

Come to think of it, I don't even know the average annual return for the SET since it was begun, probably something worth looking into. When I bought US index funds I did so knowing I would more or less match the stock market.

The idea is to bet on the market as a whole, rather than try to figure out which stocks are going to make money. The graphs are interesting but supposedly no one ever consistently beat the stock market - much less matched it - relying on analysis and/or timing, or at least that's what the experts say. The past isn't all that predictive of the future, etc. Isn't that the philosopy behind index funds?

On the other hand if the SET has no future in an 8-10 year run then I should probably stay out of it altogether. This is what I'm trying to find out, what's the long-term outlook for the SET.

Why are you in such a hurry to lose money?

Will post some answers to your qts next week.

What hurry? I started this thread six months ago and haven't invested in the SET yet.

Also if you think a SET index fund will lose money in the interval I mentioned, then I already have your answer, don't I? It doesn't matter at what point you enter the market, if an 8-10 year outlook brings a satisfactory net return. I'd be curious to know, though, why you think it won't. I don't care about 'losing money' the first month or year, I lose nothing if I don't sell and I wouldn't for 8-10 years (leaving a two-year window to sell when things are bullish rather than bearish).

Trying to time the market on a day-to-day or month-to-month based on past performance seems a surer way of losing money to me.

"Wall Street has conclusively proven to us that pursuit of performance above a benchmark is an unproductive use of our time, our talent and our money. By trying to beat the stock market average, it's easy to forget that the stock market has historically provided an excellent investment return, and by trying to beat an already good thing, investors are virtually guaranteed to end up below it." Bill Schultheis, The Coffeehouse Investor

Anyone else have any opinions?

>>>>>>> I don't care about 'losing money' the first month or year, I lose nothing if I don't sell <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Adios amigo. I can't help you! Sorry!

[Harmonica]

Any experts out there on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET)? If so any predictions for short to medium-term (3-5 years) returns? I'm eyeing a SET index fund at the moment, knowing I don't have the time to research each and every listed company and knowing the leaders will pull the market along, as with similar index funds elsewhere.

Finally any recos for a Bangkok broker?

Kim Eng Securities -- branches all over LOS -- ranked #1 and GOOD!!!

No expert -- just IMHO we're going south after this bogus rally completes. Review situation after SET=430 -- expectation of SET=205 or thereabouts in 3 years.

Having said that however, there will be plenty of intermediate-term rallies along the way -- I'll be there for them. Then, when Lord Thaksin gets SHORTING not just OKed, but implemented, I'll take some big swings at the brokerage sector -- for if this scenario plays out, many will go under, just as many did in 1997+.

-----------------------------------

That call was made 4 years ago.

Target #1 @ 430 accomplished.

Target #2 @ 205 needs more thought but it stands as-is until I have more insight. The 3 years to final target call is obviously wrong as we now know we need more time, but at least the 430 target was reached.

The brokerage sector as suggested in that post 4 yrs ago turned out to be an excellent short but couldn't avail of its rewards in LOS - not allowed.

I don't know whether Sabaijai invested back in mid 2005 or not? I hope he didn't but if he did, I hope he got out in time at breakeven or better. Or maybe he is dollar cost averaging like he said he'd do.

Wimpy was correct in that he said the SET would go higher. Nice insight there. Thedude was a savvy trader so he must have done well too.

Me? I'm waiting for the bottom. None yet IMHO. When it arrives I'll be trading Set50 futures, not stocks.

[Harmonica]

For sabaijai:

Fast forward to the present -- what do we have?  The Thai Baht is weakening and therefore SET is finding it extremely difficult to rally and move up.  This is clearly evident via the low, low volume.  SET, like any Index needs fuel to rise -- it can only go so far on fumes alone!  And fumes is what has been driving her recently.

The SET Index Fund (thru' SCB, highly recommended as the source) is a nice way to go for people like yourself who don't have the time to research stocks.  But surely,  timing your entry should be the key, shouldn't it?

The 2 burning questions, "what to buy?" and "when to buy?" have confused people for aeons.

I am of the opinion that "when to buy" is the absolute KEY! 

For when the tide rises 90% of boats will rise with it -- this is why the "when" is of paramount importance.  Remember the cliche, "why go against the flow?"

Mr. T has not yet instituted SHORTING of the SET, so going south with the Index is out of the question currently.

As for buying the Fund LONG, this is a very tricky time to enter.  Why not wait a bit for the dust to settle and we all have a clearer view of what's going on?

Hold cash now, my friend.  That is my advice, but you're the boss of your own destiny.  Your call !

Thanks for all that. But isn't now the time to buy, with the SET about as low as it can get? Or should I wait till it's even lower, is that what you're suggesting?

My idea was to invest a fixed sum every month, to take advantage of dollar-cost averaging, thus evening out the peaks and valleys to some degree.

I'm a SET novice alright. One of the reasons I wanted an index fund (I already have a couple based on the US stock market) is so as it ride with the market as a whole and not think about timing so much. Seems to me if you believe in the SET at all, that it's led by a sound group of companies, that it will eventually go up. Why wait till it does?

Come to think of it, I don't even know the average annual return for the SET since it was begun, probably something worth looking into. When I bought US index funds I did so knowing I would more or less match the stock market.

The idea is to bet on the market as a whole, rather than try to figure out which stocks are going to make money. The graphs are interesting but supposedly no one ever consistently beat the stock market - much less matched it - relying on analysis and/or timing, or at least that's what the experts say. The past isn't all that predictive of the future, etc. Isn't that the philosopy behind index funds?

On the other hand if the SET has no future in an 8-10 year run then I should probably stay out of it altogether. This is what I'm trying to find out, what's the long-term outlook for the SET.

Why are you in such a hurry to lose money?

Will post some answers to your qts next week.

What hurry? I started this thread six months ago and haven't invested in the SET yet.

Also if you think a SET index fund will lose money in the interval I mentioned, then I already have your answer, don't I? It doesn't matter at what point you enter the market, if an 8-10 year outlook brings a satisfactory net return. I'd be curious to know, though, why you think it won't. I don't care about 'losing money' the first month or year, I lose nothing if I don't sell and I wouldn't for 8-10 years (leaving a two-year window to sell when things are bullish rather than bearish).

Trying to time the market on a day-to-day or month-to-month based on past performance seems a surer way of losing money to me.

"Wall Street has conclusively proven to us that pursuit of performance above a benchmark is an unproductive use of our time, our talent and our money. By trying to beat the stock market average, it's easy to forget that the stock market has historically provided an excellent investment return, and by trying to beat an already good thing, investors are virtually guaranteed to end up below it." Bill Schultheis, The Coffeehouse Investor

Anyone else have any opinions?

If you're still around, Sabaijai, you have provided the best self-education by virtue of hindsight. You should now be able to answer all your questions easily, especially one about Wall street.

[Harmonica]

With respect to brokers, might also take a look at Seamico (www.seamico.com). They've made a minor speciality here of dealing with resident expats.

No broker will provide you US style service, however, so don't look for it. About the best you can hope for is the execution of your orders more than half the time without screwing them up. Unless you can talk the institutional guys into handling your account, many of whom are foreign, you'll be stuck with a retail broker. They're all Thai and not much more sophisticated than the Thai kids who work at McDonalds.

Utter rubbish! I told you to stop using your left hand, didn't I? You ought to have your bum spanked, salted & umeboshi-plumed for spewing out such torrents of false data!

The brokers here provide a level of service that eclipses that offered stateside; and very often here a broker will go out of his/her way to provide hours of one on one indoctrination and methodology for Farangs and Thais.

They have this in common, but some are better than others.

Top honors goes to Philip Securities in Bangkok, on Silom road.

IB Securities, Adkinsons, Kim Eng Securities in Phuket -- Tisco in BKK is also very good. BFIT in BKK is top-notch.

My personal rec. would be Kim Eng Securities in any city in LOS.

And orders are handled electronically or via Telephone etc. -- I've never had a problem and I've done many, many, many buys/sells.

Utter, utter, utter rubbish. Do I smell a dose of self-interest in the avalance of misinformation above, or is that odor something a little more organic? My oh my, I hope those dolts at Kim Eng are paying you well for all this blatant and inaccurate advertising, old buddy.

Still, fellows, mark me well, you buy into this guy's unrestrained touting at your own risk. Thai retail brokers are, on the whole, both ignorant and uneducated. When you deal with American brokers, at least you usually get your choice.

God bless America for providing me with the perfect response in present time.

[lannarebirth]

So, you mossed a 25% move to the upside and at least 30% of addidtional downside by sticking to a wrong thesis. That's imaginary money you're trading with?

[Harmonica]

So, you mossed a 25% move to the upside and at least 30% of addidtional downside by sticking to a wrong thesis. That's imaginary money you're trading with?

I missed this one, lannare. I should have known better. Mozarella in one place, there's bound to be Feta in another.

[Harmonica]

With respect to brokers, might also take a look at Seamico (www.seamico.com). They've made a minor speciality here of dealing with resident expats.

No broker will provide you US style service, however, so don't look for it. About the best you can hope for is the execution of your orders more than half the time without screwing them up. Unless you can talk the institutional guys into handling your account, many of whom are foreign, you'll be stuck with a retail broker. They're all Thai and not much more sophisticated than the Thai kids who work at McDonalds.

Utter rubbish! I told you to stop using your left hand, didn't I? You ought to have your bum spanked, salted & umeboshi-plumed for spewing out such torrents of false data!

The brokers here provide a level of service that eclipses that offered stateside; and very often here a broker will go out of his/her way to provide hours of one on one indoctrination and methodology for Farangs and Thais.

They have this in common, but some are better than others.

Top honors goes to Philip Securities in Bangkok, on Silom road.

IB Securities, Adkinsons, Kim Eng Securities in Phuket -- Tisco in BKK is also very good. BFIT in BKK is top-notch.

My personal rec. would be Kim Eng Securities in any city in LOS.

And orders are handled electronically or via Telephone etc. -- I've never had a problem and I've done many, many, many buys/sells.

----------------------------------------------

>>>> No broker will provide you US style service, however, so don't look for it. About the best you can hope for is the execution of your orders more than half the time without screwing them up. Unless you can talk the institutional guys into handling your account, many of whom are foreign, you'll be stuck with a retail broker. They're all Thai and not much more sophisticated than the Thai kids who work at McDonalds. <<<<<<

In hindsight I am glad I stuck an umeboshi plum in this guy's 2-moon junction.

Even the op knows quite well that you don't eat a masala dosa made by a fellow who's just used his left hand behind the foodstall.

Speaking about brokers and Finance,

What dummy would lend billions to General Motors when even its own auditors say that it might go out of business?

What dummy would lend billions to AIG so many times …especially after discovering each time that the company was in worse shape than before?

Answer: The US government.

What super dummy would follow dummy #1 so religiously? ... Answer: Dummy #2 The UK.

But wait a second here, the rest of the world's lenders are happy to make endless loans to Dummy #1 - because they don't trust anyone else.

And what doesDummy #1 turn around and do? ....

Heck, it lends to the people private lenders don't trust, i.e. people who cannot pay back the loans.

God help us!!!

[Harmonica]

With respect to brokers, might also take a look at Seamico (www.seamico.com). They've made a minor speciality here of dealing with resident expats.

No broker will provide you US style service, however, so don't look for it. About the best you can hope for is the execution of your orders more than half the time without screwing them up. Unless you can talk the institutional guys into handling your account, many of whom are foreign, you'll be stuck with a retail broker. They're all Thai and not much more sophisticated than the Thai kids who work at McDonalds.

Utter rubbish! I told you to stop using your left hand, didn't I? You ought to have your bum spanked, salted & umeboshi-plumed for spewing out such torrents of false data!

The brokers here provide a level of service that eclipses that offered stateside; and very often here a broker will go out of his/her way to provide hours of one on one indoctrination and methodology for Farangs and Thais.

They have this in common, but some are better than others.

Top honors goes to Philip Securities in Bangkok, on Silom road.

IB Securities, Adkinsons, Kim Eng Securities in Phuket -- Tisco in BKK is also very good. BFIT in BKK is top-notch.

My personal rec. would be Kim Eng Securities in any city in LOS.

And orders are handled electronically or via Telephone etc. -- I've never had a problem and I've done many, many, many buys/sells.

Utter, utter, utter rubbish. Do I smell a dose of self-interest in the avalance of misinformation above, or is that odor something a little more organic? My oh my, I hope those dolts at Kim Eng are paying you well for all this blatant and inaccurate advertising, old buddy.

Still, fellows, mark me well, you buy into this guy's unrestrained touting at your own risk. Thai retail brokers are, on the whole, both ignorant and uneducated. When you deal with American brokers, at least you usually get your choice.

--------------------------------

>>>>>> Thai retail brokers are, on the whole, both ignorant and uneducated. When you deal with American brokers, at least you usually get your choice. <<<<

Who are the ignoramuses now?